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COVID-19

Not much to say here: by now you've all heard of Coronavirus Disease 2019, and it's probable that there are cases in your country. (Another 13 cases just got added to the UK score this morning.)

Remember: Coronaviruses have a lipid membrane, which is vulnerable to disruption by detergents (including soap and water). It can persist for up to 24 hours on some surfaces (especially polished metal). Wash your hands! You're probably safe from droplet inhalation unless an infected person coughs in your face—droplets settle fast.

The headline mortality rate for COVID-19, 2%, is comparable to the 1918-20 Spanish Flu (an order of magnitude higher than a regular winter flu). However, it rises to around 15% in over-70s. This is therefore going to cause a crisis in the nursing home sector, where homes will either have to run on a skeleton staff by sending home sick care workers, or risk killing their residents in large numbers. (This is why we need statutory sick pay!) It has the potential for major demographic, political, and age/wealth redistribution as side-effects. Also for exposing butt-headed political moves like Boris Johnson demanding the UK leaves the EU's pandemic response early warning system (apparently viruses will give the UK a free pass because Brexit), or Iranian clergy in the holy city of Qom staying open to pilgrims because their shrines are places of healing. And I'm fairly certain that as soon as there's a vaccine, the Anti-Vaxxers will crawl out of the woodwork.

Anyway, feel free to discuss COVID-19 related matters in the comments below.

1227 Comments

1:

Oh, and I forgot to give a shout-out to the South Korean Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a bunch of quasi-presbyterian millennarian whackjobs who believe their leader, pastor Lee Man-hee, is the second coming of Jesus and the end is nigh: Lee will take 144,000 people with him to heaven on the day of judgment, "by sacrificing our bodies like a candle". New members have to recruit followers or pay a fine to the leader, and apparently they have a culture of infiltrating other churches to evangelize.

Shincheonji has an ... odd ... relationship with viral pandemics (SARS too, not just COVID-19): congregants were told not to wear masks while praying as it was "disrespectful to God to have masks on", and takes roll-call at services. And the messiah himself has denounced COVID-19 as a tool of the devil and told his followers to beat it through faith.

So yeah, this is why South Korea has a COVID-19 problem.

2:

Interesting* piece on the news this morning about Statutory Sick Pay and contracted out NHS staff (Cleaners, Securoty Guards, Catering Staff who work in hospitals but are not directly employed by the NHS). It turns out that most, if not all, of them are employed on contracts which only offer basic SSP. So the first three days are unpaid and after that you go on to ninety-four pounds a week. Oh and you need a note from your GP to claim. (Remember what they said about not going to your GP if you develop the symptoms of COVID-19?).

So expect people who clean the wards, prepare food and do all sorts of other jobs in hospitals to continue to turn up for work. What could possibly go wrong?

*And when I say interesting I mean absolutely fucking terrifiying.

3:

Charlie ... That torygraph piece you linked to is interesting, if only for its revelation of monumental stupidity. I wonder if BOZO will backtrack if COVID actually does turn out bad ( i.e 1.5-4% fatalities ) - the trouble is, of course, the same as we have had for some years now: There is ZERO political opposition, because Corbyn's a fuckwit. Meanwhile ... how bad is really bad? What was the fatality rate OF THOSE INFECTED in 1918? Why are the Iranian figures so skewed to a high rate? ( I suspect actual infected numbers are being suppressed or massaged, so the death rate appears higher, but I could easily be wrong ) What is the actual incubation period? I'm well past 70 ( 74 ) but my fitness is probably in the top 5% for my age cohort - so next question: Are there any other "Preferred" groups, more likely to both catch & succumb to this virus? Do we have the data? ( Age, yes .. diet? living conditions? temperature/humidity curves? general fitness & health? etc. ) As always: MORE DATA NEEDED.

4:

Shincheonji also has a fun policy of "recruiting" by false front businesses and exploiting the vulnerable by fake friendship. I will not cry in the least if the South Korean government decides to nuke them with extreme prejudice.

I feel like this particular pandemic is teaching everyone useful lessons the hard way, like, it's a bad idea to have an underclass with "no recourse to public funds", universal healthcare should be universal, and running it down because of "efficiency" will bite you in the behind when you subsequently need to run it back up in a panic.

America, it is going to go through like the Black Death with a newly upgraded combine harvester scythe. If you contrive a system where nearly all your working and middle class actively runs away from healthcare, and where every business is so deliberately short staffed that sick leave is unthinkable, and then you refuse to test near-certain cases for weeks as they spread and spread, and then try and prioritise talking up the market... well, it was nice knowing ya.

5:

What was the fatality rate OF THOSE INFECTED in 1918?

Wikipedia is your friend: here's the patterns of fatality from the Spanish Flu. Weirdly, mortality was highest among pregnant women (at 23% to 71% across 13 studies).

The Spanish flu hit in two waves: a first, low-mortality strain (at about 0.02%) but then a much more severe strain. It hit Western Samoa hardest: "90% of the population was infected; 30% of adult men, 22% of adult women, and 10% of children died." Elsewhere it ranged from 0.7% of total population, to 5% of all cases of death in Georgia (US state), and 10% of total deaths for 1918 in Ireland.

So the only good answer is "it varied" -- but in some populations it was edging into Ebola territory.

6:

Spanish flu mortality rate was something like 1.5% and I think there's some speculation that sanitary conditions (e.g., WWI front lines) made it worse.

7:

According to WHO:

"Individuals at highest risk for severe disease and death include people aged over 60 years and those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild with approximately 2.4% of the total reported cases reported amongst individuals aged under 19 years. Avery small proportion of those aged under 19 years have developed severe (2.5%) or critical disease (0.2%)."

8:

We're all gonna die. Of ECONOMIC impact.

9:

Yeah, well, that's me in the "highest risk for severe disease and death" category per WHO (hypertension and diabetes). FML.

10:

It will certainly be interesting in many ways.

As mentioned, the combination of factors from the last decade or more (anti-vaxxers and their distrust of modern science/medicine, the election of really incompetent leaders and their cult of experts are the enemy, that those leaders are incapable of telling the truth, etc.) will make it interesting.

But it is also possible that the side-effects, like damage to the economies or the panics from fear, could prove to be more interesting. In the last several days there are Costco outlets being emptied by panic buying that more resembles a hurricane coming.

11:

I've been helping tamp down hysteria locally in my peer group. Death rate, like Spanish Flu, is going to vary. The topline rate is averaged across many different vulnerable populations. The over 70 set having a much higher rate is part of that; if they're at 15, and children under 18 months are as well, it means the 20 to 40 year old set is going to have a rate below a percentage point. Our news media isn't great about communicating nuance like that.

By the way, that's why the 2nd wave of Spanish Flu was so terrible; it struck the age groups that usually shrug off pandemics.

I keep thinking that this thing will trigger one of the bigger generational wealth-transfers in several decades. The over-70 set all have estates, dying early is a great way to give a lot of money to the 30 to 50 set.

12:

If you contrive a system where nearly all your working and middle class actively runs away from healthcare...

E.g.,

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html

Paraphrase of the above: Florida guy returns from China and develops flu symptoms. Checks into a hospital, tests negative for coronavirus and subsequently receives a bill for over $3,200 with more coming.

13:

Iran’s going to be the interesting one to watch. Rumours are that there is a high infection rate in the upper echelons of government care of the deputy health minister.

14:

Scottish Government needs to immediately put into action "National Treasure Protection Scheme" and get Mr Stross and his kin into some extremely well funded bio-facility, to keep him safe, and more importantly keep him writing - there's books in you we need.

15:
The headline mortality rate for COVID-19, 2%, is comparable to the 1918-20 Spanish Flu (an order of magnitude higher than a regular winter flu).

It appears that the % of asymptomatic/mildly affected is much higher than initially estimated, making the mortality rate appear much higher than it actually is. The number of undiagnosed cases is presumed relatively high.

That means that some estimates are now that the mortality rate could be actually be between 0.5% and 1%. Bad, but not as bad as 1918 H1N1.

16:

Odds are the mortality rate is a lot lower: There's a lot of sub-acute cases out there, where people think they've got a cold or mild flu, and are passing it around similarly. This is probably especially true in Iran which has a higher mortality rate: People are just not going to the doctor unless they're already really sick.

And that's the biggest issue: this is likely to infect a lot of health care workers, even with precautions taken. Even if they don't get severely ill, it'll take them off the table for a couple weeks. So if there are endemic areas, they will be short on docs and nurses.

Meanwhile, my Italian holiday has been canceled, some hotels won't refund prepaid stays. My current plan is to drive around the US pretending (only slightly) it's a Max Max-like wasteland.

17:

I've heard they're billing the ones in quarantine too.

Because what you really want from a population experiencing a pandemic is for them to think "if they catch me and send me to hospital, I'll be billed vast sums I don't have, the debts will destroy my credit and collectors will chase me for life, I've got no sick pay, my job will sack me for missing a day, and I have rent due. I had better hide myself in a hole and cover my symptoms with dayquil."

18:

I wonder if the higher death rate of older people is just an effect that they are more likely to have been infected in an hospital, so it is more probable that that they are had preexisting conditions.

Data from South Korea give "only" 3.7% mortality above 80 (sample size fortunately small, 3).

19:

Two percent lethality is the British casualties from the Great War, less concentrated in a particular demographic. Four percent lethality is the French or German casualties.

This is more than enough to collapse constructions of social legitimacy, which were already doing pretty badly here in Late Capitalism. It's not obvious that having the deaths concentrated among the old, rather than the young, will help.

A few other things: firstly, this is not a containable disease. You get many asymptomatic carriers (frequently children!) and you have to test everybody, the entire population, because there isn't (unlike SARS which always caused fever) a consistent set of symptoms. Despite a greatly increased technical capability even compared to SARS, the ability to do whole-population testing wasn't there before Covid-19 hit so we're not going to be able to do it this time. Given time, everyone is going to get this.

Second thing; there've been a few pictures posted in the last couple days of the Port of Los Angeles, empty of containers. (The largest container port in the US and an annual quarter trillion-with-a-T dollars in cargo.)

Economic downturns kill people. That part of this ain't looking great.

Third thing -- the Late Capitalism is going to settle on someone to blame as quickly as possible. (It can't possibly be a policy of denying as many people health care as possible to increase profits; it would never do for that idea to get stuck in the public consciousness.)

Fourth thing -- like any other greenfield virus, it's mutating pretty fast. We don't actually know what the overall lethality is going to look like when this is over. Could go either way. And while there's been much emphasis on two weeks of staple foodstuffs, there hasn't been much on having electrolyte replacements on hand. You can get through viral infections a little hungry far more readily than you can get through a little dry, and people don't seem to be stocking up on that basis.

Oh, and wealth transfer? Probably not meaningfully; a tremendous slice of middle-class wealth is in housing. Housing prices fall when you lose whole-digit percentages of the population and during economic downturns and during times of great economic uncertainty. Plus the transfer mechanisms aren't set up for the scale even if nothing else was wrong.

20:

And me: hypertension and COPD.

What I am expecting is that it will get into some imprisoned communities (e.g. most refugee camps, Yemen, Gaza) and their jailers will ensure that there are not enough medical supplies to treat it properly, and possibly do even more to make it worse. I remember when the BBC was leant on to stop an appeal to supply Gaza with medical aid. Bluntly, at 72, I can take my chances - but I really gag at the prospect of it being used in that way.

21:

"...I've got no sick pay, my job will sack me for missing a day, and I have rent due. I had better hide myself in a hole and cover my symptoms with dayquil.""

We wish. More likely it's "dose myself with enough medicine that I shouldn't even drive, then drive myself to work, and stumble through my shift."

Heck, I did that a few years ago, working for a branch of a Japanese company in the USA (no sick days, no remote work), and took down my office. Major weekly corporate reports relied upon by engineering were not run.

22:

Graydon @19, listing potential knock-on effects:

Fifth thing -- If Donald Trump dies of COVID-19, my unstoppable celebratory tequila binge will probably fall into the 15% expected mortality range, and I can't think I'd be the only one.

Add in other of the plentiful villains of contemporary politics -- BoJo, Pence, Reese-Mogg, Mitch McConnell, et al -- and a lot of us will be asymptotically approaching mortality rates more characteristic of Russian Roulette with only two empty chambers.

Timor mortis conturbat me.

23:

Yeah, for "hide myself in a hole", read "actively conceal my case from authorities who are trying to control infection". Instead, infect the entire office, the fast food joint I serve in and all its customers, everyone riding in my uber, the people I deliver pizza to, etc etc.

Hence the combine harvester scythe.

24:

Update

Here in Scotland the government is taking COVID-19 seriously enough that the First Minister just held a press conference and public briefing. Scotland's chief medical officer says worst case is 80% of population affected, and 4% require hospitalization. That's 250,000 hospital admissions.

The best figure I can find suggests Scotland has around 13,000 hospital beds, total. The UK has fewer hospital beds than almost any other developed nation. NHS England currently runs at roughly 88% occupancy; I'm going to assume NHS Scotland is the same.

Assuming each hospitalization case requires 10 days' care (this is based on anecdotal reports of patients who recovered), we're going to need 2.5M hospital bed-days to cover this. That's 6,850 hospital bed-years.

So if the epidemic takes 12 months to run its course and the morbidity rate is constant (it won't be!) Scotland will need 50% more hospital beds than it currently has, for a whole year.

COVID-19 apparently doesn't do well in temperatures over 26 celsius. Problem: Scotland almost never goes over 26 celsius. So unless there's a freak heat wave, summer won't save us.

I don't have an answer to this, but I'm seeing a picture like: large public gatherings cancelled, lots of people staying home (and coughing quietly indoors), emergency overflow facilities for nursing patients set up in large buildings like conference centres and sports facilities (they need kitchen/catering equipment).

This is assuming it takes 12 months and the infection rate is steady. If it burns through the population in 3 months we're fucked: total healthcare system collapse (remember, healthcare workers are more likely to be infected than everyone else).

25:

The sort of generational wealth-transfer I'm thinking of is the decidedly American style of retirement savings: tax-sheltered stock-market accounts. When someone who is 6 years into a 30 year retirement dies early, most of their accumulated value is still there. That will then transfer to their descendants, a transfer that is actually pretty dang easy compared to real-estate.

The GenX'ers with suddenly dead parents will see that influx of equity as a lifeline for their equally suddenly under-water mortgage. That will set such people above their peers with surviving parents.

Of course, any kind of excess deaths among the age-groups with actual assets to distribute is going to lock Probate courts up tight for years. So, if you're in that group, make sure your wills and such are up to date.

26:

"It appears that the % of asymptomatic/mildly affected is much higher than initially estimated, making the mortality rate appear much higher than it actually is. The number of undiagnosed cases is presumed relatively high. "

I would bet that at least the same factor applied to the Spanish Flu:

1) Doctors couldn't diagnose much at the time. 2) People were (IMHO) less likely to go to the doctor for 'mere' aches and pains. There was nothing that the doctors could do, and any pharmacist would sell you some narcotic pain juice. 3) Once it got well underway, it would have been a bad idea to go to a hospital, since that would ensure that you had it. 4) Record keeping would have been much less.

27:

Thing is, once we get anywhere near the worse case then the rules change.

For example, it doesn't matter if they healthcare workers are infected - if they can still function then they can work on caring for / treating patients with Covid-19 because there wouldn't be danger of the worker spreading the virus - and if you have set up in a conference centre/sports facility/school there is no danger of cross-infection.

28:

I would bet that at least the same factor applied to the Spanish Flu:

Also: co-morbidity (tuberculosis was a major cause of death back then -- flu on top probably knocked a bunch over the edge).

Also: yes, they had OTC opiates (anybody could rock up to the counter and buy a bottle of heroin elixir!), but opiates are respiratory depressants -- I can see a significant number of overdoses being lost in the noise (person with flu medicates for pain, finds it subtly harder to breathe).

But the second wave Spanish flu was rather different from what we normally recognize as flu: for further info, google on "cytokine storm" (which could cause healthy young adults to go from walking to dead in six hours flat).

29:

Reminder: 1% annual mortality is what we live with if life expectancy is 100 years. We're used to roughly 1.2% in the developed world.

The special sauce is 2% surplus mortality, especially concentrated in a particular demographic (the UK suffered 2% population losses over 4 years during WW1, but lost about 10% of an entire generation of young men). France ... men got scarce; in Germany they had to breed up an entire new cohort before they could go back for round two.

30:

TonyC @ 2: Interesting* piece on the news this morning about Statutory Sick Pay and contracted out NHS staff (Cleaners, Securoty Guards, Catering Staff who work in hospitals but are not directly employed by the NHS). It turns out that most, if not all, of them are employed on contracts which only offer basic SSP. So the first three days are unpaid and after that you go on to ninety-four pounds a week. Oh and you need a note from your GP to claim. (Remember what they said about *not* going to your GP if you develop the symptoms of COVID-19?).

So expect people who clean the wards, prepare food and do all sorts of other jobs in hospitals to continue to turn up for work. What could possibly go wrong?

So expect people who clean the wards, prepare food and do all sorts of other jobs in hospitals to continue to turn up for work. What could possibly go wrong?

I was reading about the cruise ships that got quarantined & apparently the "service" staff were all living in steerage conditions and the majority of the cases on board were among them rather than the actual ship's crew or passengers, who could actually isolate themselves in their cabins.

31:

jules M @ 4 Indeed - all those poor ( & brown ) people don't matter ... but diseases aren't fussy. In spite of the realisation that isolation might help, at least on european monarch died in the great death of 1347-48 (51) ... it's going to be fun { see later }

Charlie @ 5 Yeah & it already looks as though COVID is like that, even with preliminary numbers, the death rates are varying wildly ... again how much of that is down to misreporting is, um, err - take your pick. Your update @ 24 Just for once the Scots have got it right - that's probably a worst-case scenario, but if you prepare for that & it isn't as bad, you are ahead of the "game" - unlike the USA

Allen Thomson @ 12 Yeah your really could not make that insane shit up, could you? [ See also JM @ 17 - REALLY - that utterly bonkers? ]

As mentioned by others, how about the "Typhoid Marys" out there with no symptoms or very mild symptoms? Suppose I get a cough & think it's just the "November cough" that everyone got, doing a re-run & get a mild temperature stay in bed for a couple of days, feel better & start going out agin - when actually I've had a mild dose of COVID? All too easy to imagine.

"Fun" - needless to say, the jokes are already appearing. About NOT drinking nasty Spanish beer ( "Corona" ) or those of us of a certain age referring to the "tizervirus" ( Tizer was a sweet fizzy drink in the 1950/60's period - & it's rival was ... corona ) Anyone got any more, the sicker the better?

32:

BTW, the news snippet about 38% of Americans not drinking Corona (beer) is apparently bullshit: the true figure was closer to 4% (the 38% referred to an earlier question and apparently reflects the total proportion of non-beer-drinkers in the polling sample).

33:

Re: Iran - "New Year's" coming up!

Seriously hope that Iran follows China's example and calls off its New Year's travel and public celebrations.

Excerpt:

'Nowruz is the country’s biggest holiday, and the ritual is to buy new clothes and toys—and to travel to the Caspian coast or other vacation spots to take a break from Iran’s mounting crises.'

I looked up Qom's weather forecast: should reach low 70's next week with low-moderate RH levels.

FYI - the below is a non-commercial site. Choice of BI or metric.

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/iran/qom/ext

34:

My current plan is to drive around the US pretending (only slightly) it's a Max Max-like wasteland.

Go for Station 11 instead. I'm a bit of a fan of post-apocalyptic fiction, and that is by far the best I've ever read - and relevant to pandemics. Or at least it's the best which doesn't involve zombies (World War Z is still the daddy there) or anything supernatural.

35:

richard77 @ 18: I wonder if the higher death rate of older people is just an effect that they are more likely to have been infected in an hospital, so it is more probable that that they are had preexisting conditions."

Data from South Korea give "only" 3.7% mortality above 80 (sample size fortunately small, 3).

I read somewhere that the virus primarily causes upper respiratory symptoms, but in the elderly it is likely to descend into the lower respiratory system and develop into pneumonia which is the main cause of mortality.

I wonder how that might be affected by the pneumonia vaccine my doctor suggested I get several years ago? Might that give me an added defense against the worst effects?

36:

My parents are pretty much doomed: my mom turns 89 next week, though she's in reasonable health my dad is currently fighting leukemia and he's 86 and his white blood cells are below half of what they should be. Me, I'm in trouble as I'm 58 and my antibody production ceased a decade ago.

I'm reliant on: (A) herd immunity, which doesn't exist. And as we're having people get sick a second time, there's questions being raised. (B) people selling plasma to produce my antibody med. See (A). This med, fiendishly expensive, gives me pretty good defensive against the common plagues that sweep through schools and I've had one common cold in the last couple of years, along with an enterovirus. Since I don't build my own antibodies, we don't know how good of a defense my body mounts against attack, but it seems.... adequate.

So, ignoring the vaccine which won't exist until the middle of next year at the earliest, for my needs LOTS of Americans need to get infected, survive, and continue to sell plasma to CSL Behring. It then takes six months+ for that to be turned into my meds and get sent to me.

And the question has been raised whether or not COVID-19 will become part of the normal cycle of coronaviruses that are in constant circulation.

So this really sucks for me. As if my immune disorder doesn't represent a possible 20 year reduction in my lifespan, now I get this thrown at me.

But I do live a normal lifestyle, working in a university library running interlibrary loan, though it's entirely possible that the school could shut down if things get bad. I have hospital-grade hand sanitizer, as recommended by transplant surgeons, at my desk, and we're starting stronger cleaning protocols. We'll see what happens.

37:

Also: co-morbidity (tuberculosis was a major cause of death back then -- flu on top probably knocked a bunch over the edge).

COVID-19 is mutating fast enough that I've seen speculation that it can be co-morbid with itself and that one reason medical staff are having such a high death rate is because they get exposed to, and thus infected by, multiple strains simultaneously.

Any green-field virus is going to mutate a lot; gene sequencing is now quick and simple enough that people are inferring when and where patient zero was from the mutation patterns. This is cool, but not directly helpful; the implication is that we're all going to get this more than once, hopefully but not certainly with decreasing severity on re-infection.

It does highlight a real need to minimise opportunity for infection; getting one case of one variant is (so far) on the odds not that bad. It's therefor really important to catch all the variants you're going to get infected with sequentially, rather than simultaneously.

38:

Overworking when infected by something like COVID-19 usually turns a low-risk patient into a high-risk one - health workers need protecting against that.

To OGH (#24): if TPTB in the UK were behaving rationally, they would stock up on basic oxygen tanks and breather masks, and issue those for home use as a first-line treatment for a lot of us old fogies (e.g. those where there are at least two active adults in the household). Yeah, that would have a higher death rate than hospital treatment, but So what?

39:

Don't expect it to be so simple. The political, social, economic and environmental consequences of WWI on the UK (due to the deaths alone) were major, and there were a LOT of negatives. I shall leave it to historians of the future to decide whether the 'revolution' it caused was eventually good for the UK's body politic or not, because it is still too soon to tell.

Expect any such event in the USA to have similar unpredictable and major consequences.

40:

Spanish flu/COVID

Speaking of which, the JHU map shows 120 cases currently in Spain, the first case in Ecuador flew in from Madrid, and on our morning walk after I'd posted #12, I spotted a shiny penny which, on closer examination, revealed itself to be un centavo de España(*). Precautionary decontamination ensued.

(*) I don't recall ever seeing one of those on the left side of the Atlantic before. Strange are the ways of fate.

P.S. Perhaps a question for OGH: is money an effective vector for coronavirus?

41:

Certainly not saying to overwork them - but when you lose the risk of transferring the virus a lot of normal precautions become more of a luxury than a necessity. Like having support staff stay home if they are sick with Covid-19.

And if we do get to worse case, or even 50% case, a lot of normal procedures will be out the window.

42:

Here is some data from 1100 early Chinese patients. ( scihub PDF).

Key takeaways - it is mostly harmless to young people (less than 1% of patients are under 15), the median incubation period is 4 days (2-7 interquartile range, so 14 days is a very distant outlier and suggests intermediate undetected carrier), it's characterized by coughing and fever but no congestion or nausea. 6% of patients needed intensive care, 1.4% died. This is important because it's information from before the medical facilities were overwhelmed by the spring festival travel induced wave of new infections, and therefore corresponds to the situation we're now seeing in the West. That said, the disease is better understood now and we should see better outcomes in aggregate, until medical providers get overwhelmed and death rates go up due to lack of intensive care capacity, like they did in Wuhan.

43:

Interestingly, WHO suggests (linked PDF file) that fecal transmission is significant: https://tinyurl.com/vhclhsw This explains why washing your hands, post-toilet, is very important. And given that many people apparently can't be bothered, it's probably wise to flush public toilets and manipulate public washroom taps and doors with a toilet paper barrier between you and the surface. Or carry hand sanitizer for after you've washed hands and left the facility.

I prepared a small "don't panic" preparation guide for friends and family that I thought I'd share:

http://geoff-hart.com/resources/covid19.html

Please don't clutter this blog post with typo corrections, dead link reports, and simple errors; send that information to me privately (ghart@videotron.ca) and I'll update the Web page. Major errors in logic are definitely worth discussing here, but please e-mail me a copy of your critique in case I miss it here on the blog. Work is starting to build up, and that means I may not pay sufficient attention here.

44:

Bill Blondeau @ 22: Timor mortis conturbat me.

We're all going to die ... The best we can hope for is that it's "someday", rather than today. And hope to go peacefully of extreme old age, rather than doing something spectacularly stupid that wins us a Darwin Award.

I'm 70½, diabetic (diet & medication, not insulin dependent) and a 10 year cancer survivor. I'm a fairly solitary homebody, so I don't think my lifestyle exposes me too greatly and as noted earlier, I've had the pneumonia vaccine which may alleviate some of the danger. I think I'm more likely to die of aggravation (which I'll leave until after the 300 mark).

My only concern right now is if the Covid-19 does get me, who's going to take care of my little dog? I don't have a plan yet, but I'm thinking about it.

45:

P.S. Perhaps a question for OGH: is money an effective vector for coronavirus?

Unknown at this time, but I expect the possibility will drive traffic towards cashless/contactless payments (which are already eating cash alive in the UK).

46:

Charlie: Stay tucked away in your garret writing and you'll be safer than those of us who have to get out and about every day.

And (not related to the above), antisocial introverts FTW!

47:

Definitely come uo with a back-up plan for your little dog; anything can happen any day and it will give you peace of mind.

I have upped my handwashing/hand gel game since I had to travel unexpectedly three weeks ago. Trying to train myself not to touch my face but it’s hard.

My current project is using the pandemic as a motivator to really put together a good earthquake kit since I live in Southern California. Trying for two weeks of food and 10 gallons of water. I have a little solar lantern that can charge our phones in a pinch.

My mother-in-law and dad are both in extremely poor health and I am concerned about unknowingly infecting them when I go to visit...which brings up the issue of flying or driving. Driving would probably be better, and we could even camp along the way (it’s a two to three day drive) if motels seem problematic.

48:

So if the epidemic takes 12 months to run its course and the morbidity rate is constant (it won't be!) Scotland will need 50% more hospital beds than it currently has, for a whole year.

A good movie to watch right now might be Contagion - about a worldwide pandemic.

From what I recall, it's frightening in that everything is treated in a matter-of-fact way. Running out of beds? Well, sports stadiums aren't in use these days, so move the overflow there. Healthcare professionals dying (one of the main characters who is a healthcare professional dies - and it was a major actor who croaked, not some faceless B-lister).

Plus it had a subplot about an irresponsible antivax asshole who was listened to because people were desperate.

In the movie, the authorities seemed to be doing their best to handle the horrendous situation they were in. Unlike the current malevolent / incompetent goofs in charge of the USA these days. If the government lies like a rug, it doesn't take too long for people to ignore what they say.

49:

But I wonder about vaccines... bear in mind that viruses mutate as they propagate, so there's no guarantee a vaccine that works now will continue to work 12 months from now.

50:

My current project is using the pandemic as a motivator to really put together a good earthquake kit since I live in Southern California. Trying for two weeks of food and 10 gallons of water. I have a little solar lantern that can charge our phones in a pinch.

US gallons? ~38 litres isn't enough for one person for ten days.

You want at least five litres of sealed water per person-day. (Cooking and wash water are absolutely required, it's not purely drinking water.)

Ideally, sealed water is smallish -- 10 litre or 20 litre -- sizes. (Something you're sure you can access when ill comes into this.) Presuming you have a tank-style hot water heater, you also want some water-only, this-only jerrycans and a this-sole-use hose that lets you drain your hot water tank (and thus house plumbing) into same, comes the day.

51:

Re: Toilets

Put the lid down before you flush!

A lot of US & Canadian toilets have enough water pressure to spray droplets out of the toilet bowl and onto surrounding surfaces. No idea what the typical toilet water pressure is elsewhere but it's easy to check by pouring some toilet bowl cleaner (usually they contain a vivid dye/color) into the toilet bowl, lay paper towels across the top of the seat to cover the opening completely, put the lid down which will also help keep the paper towels in place, flush and check the paper towels once the water tank/reservoir has finished re-filling. (Not being paranoid - this is one of the things we were cautioned about when caring for a family member post-BMT with cGVHD, i.e., very high dose prednisone plus other immune-suppressants. Ideal is patient has his/her own separate bathroom: toilet, shower/tub and sink. There was much more that may not be applicable here.)

And for skyfairy's sake, don't let your pet drink out of the toilet bowl!

52:

Meanwhile, my Italian holiday has been canceled, some hotels won't refund prepaid stays.

Yep. I'm planning to fly to the UK a week from today. 7 night stay at a nice hotel. If I decide to cancel I have 1 week to use the hotel certificate somewhere else.

53:

Mortality Rates.

OK. Someone educate me. Per the John Hopkins mahttps://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6p:

As of this moment: 89K cases confirmed 3K deaths 45K recovered

Wouldn't mortality be 3/(45+3)? Which is around 6%.

This ratios has been dropping as more data comes in but is still way above the 1% - 2% everyone is talking about.

54:

Mortality varies with age cohort; I suspect the estimate of 1-2% is based on extrapolation, and a lot of the surplus deaths are among elderly/obviously sick patients admitted to hospital (there'll be a lot of low-grade infections in the community who haven't been officially diagnosed yet).

55:

I happened to go through SEA at the same time as the state's first case of COVID-19, so I've been following the drop in mortality rate.

There are two issues with the higher number you've come up with (which was 20% when I first started looking):

  • If it takes 8 weeks to get to a "recovered" state, then in the early stages like this, you have patients who are fully expected to recover, but who are still in the confirmed state. Each time a new country ramps up cases (Italy, at the moment, for example), you get this problem.

  • Inevitably, the people who get diagnosed are the ones who seek professional healthcare - this, in turn, is the people who have a life-affecting illness, not the ones who are basically healthy but have some mild symptoms - cough, fatigue, headache.

  • Between the two, you get into a situation where the confirmed death rate (currently around 6%) is an upper limit on the mortality rate. You can account for effect 1 by tracking when diagnoses first started in an area and make a good statistical guess, and effect 2 needs you to estimate the community rate.

    56:

    I've been working the last couple of days on training away face touching, by making fingertips smelly. It seems to be working. Found a stinky liquid skin crack sealant sold in the US called Nexcare ("Skin Crack Care"), and another liquid bandage called newSkin that smells though not as bad. I haven't tried the proper cyanoacrylate-based liquid bandages more commonly available outside the US and don't know if they have a noticeable smell. Garlic might work, e.g. garlic-infused nail-polish; really, anything to remind one that fingers are near the nose/face would work, e.g. if one wanted to go tech, a proximity alarm of some sort perhaps using a pair of rings, left/right hand.

    57:

    Re: Mortality rates. A recent article from Business Insider shows a number of interesting charts, including this one mapping mortality rates to age cohort. Bad news for 60+, especially 70+. Stay safe, folks.

    58:

    Oh, but there's a few more things that will lead to more and more people getting the virus. A few years ago, a raft of corporate bullshit came out extolling the virtues of huge, open-plan offices. All of the virtues were either more than balanced by other costs, or were entirely illusory, but the notion of "Big, open-plan office good + cheap" lodged in the minds of corporate top brass and unfortunately stayed there.

    I myself work in such a pit of employment misery, as an IT worker and utterly detest it. I am autistic, and prefer not to be distracted; open plan is misery for such as I. Worse, a big open-plan office concentrates all the key IT workers for an organisation in one room which could also be custom-designed to cross-infect people with aerosol-transmitted diseases.

    So, factor in modern working conditions into the economy-crippling effects of Coronavirus.

    59:

    Bill, the New Skin product uses ethyl acetate as the solvent; that is mostly what you can smell. For all that it is termed a wound sealant, be careful not to get it onto an open wound, because it really stings badly if you do that, and the stuff is difficult to wipe off.

    It is however quite good if you want a temporary glue-like substance that can be removed at a later time.

    60:

    Re: ' ... working the last couple of days on training away face touching'

    The transplant (BMT) ward protocol abut touching was: if you touch your face, hair or anywhere/anything below your waist - including hospital bed rails - you immediately exited the positive-pressure isolation room, un-gowned and SCRUBBED your hands (fingertips to elbows with soap and brush) for a minimum of 2 minutes before re-gowning and re-entering that room. By day 3, my hands up to my elbows were so red and raw that not touching my face/head became much easier to 'learn'.

    I also decided to get a really short haircut because I noticed that about half the time that I was 'touching my face' it was to touch/move my hair.

    61:

    Little circular pads for face-wiping + a bottle of "cleanser" will do wonders - & of course, wash your hands ... I wonder if some anti-vaxxer will get their comeuppance after this is all over, or even before? Ropes & lamp-posts come to mind. Ditto for the utter wankers supposedly in charge in the US

    62:

    A couple points re. mortality rates:

    If one person dies and you've only had that one reported infection, the mortality rate is 100%: 1 death / 1 infection. As the number of cases grows, the denominator of "deaths/infections" will typically grow faster than the numerator for infections with a relatively low rate of serious symptom development, so you'll see the mortality rate initially seeming high and decreasing over time until it reaches equilibrium.

    Second, we don't yet know how many people are actually infected because (to the best of my knowledge) nobody is testing asymptomatic people en masse, so it's hard to calculate the true mortality rate. For all we know, 100% of people who come within 2 m of someone who's showing symptoms get infected, but only a few percent develop significant symptoms, and ca. 2% of them die.

    63:

    Worse, a big open-plan office concentrates all the key IT workers for an organisation in one room which could also be custom-designed to cross-infect people with aerosol-transmitted diseases. I've ranted vigorously about open-plan offices in previous threads (hypersensitive introvert), but pandemic-facilitation might be a more-convincing twist. Doubling time for COVID-19 cases seems to be about a week. (I haven't checked this work though.)

    Something to keep in mind in the coming couple of weeks: we believe from modeling estimates from case data (https://t.co/ORhIxf7Qcs) and from phylodynamics (https://t.co/iRqMpQ87ql) that epidemic doubling time is about 7 days. 1/4

    — Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) March 2, 2020

    For those that don't want to click blind twitter links, https://github.com/midas-network/COVID-19/blob/master/parameter_estimates/2019_novel_coronavirus/README.md#doubling-time

    64:

    Here’s a usable link to the Johns Hopkins map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Any bets that the 2 (recovered) cases in Russia are BS? That is, Russia isn’t reporting actual numbers.

    65:

    So, great, another bunch of Christian Scientists....

    66:

    And I'm fairly certain that as soon as there's a vaccine, the Anti-Vaxxers will crawl out of the woodwork.

    They are already crawling. According to anti-vax theories the whole Covid-19 thing is a conspiracy cooked up as an excuse to force mandatory vaccination on everyone. See for instance https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/anti-vaxxers-terrified-of-a-mandatory-coronavirus-vaccine-in-australia/ar-BB10xPeA

    Meanwhile the 5G "electromagnetic sensitivity" crowd are claiming that its actually a cover story for the illnesses created by the 5G rollout.

    67:

    Yep - my lady's over 60, and I'm over 70, survived cancer 19 years ago... Actually, since someone mentioned it, I think I did get the pneumonia vaccine.

    68:

    That transplant ward protocol is looking good now. :-) Not paywalled at the moment (for me at least): Stop Touching Your Face! (Tara Parker-Pope, March 2, 2020) Article does not provide any suggestions for training away face touching so my above comment about smelly finger treatments applies.

    69:

    That's like the funnymentalists who have "pregnancy centers" and "advisors" who are lying, non-medical -it's your punishment for having sex groups.

    70:

    You wrote:

    I keep thinking that this thing will trigger one of the bigger generational wealth-transfers in several decades. The over-70 set all have estates, dying early is a great way to give a lot of money to the 30 to 50 set.

    What the fuck? Really? Do you really believe that rich asshole from a year or two ago, who wrote that you can't retire if you don't have $1.5M in the bank?

    MOST of us don't have anything like that. Hell, I just retired last year, and my kids would have to sell my house to get more the $10k or $20k each.

    This is bs.

    71:

    No problem. "Well, if you're billing me, I'll break quarantine and come. (cough, cough)"

    72:

    Port of LA: in the last month, 25% drop in shipments. https://www.wsj.com/articles/port-of-los-angeles-sees-coronavirus-impact-sharply-reducing-imports-11582648931

    You'll notice it's from that wild-eyed, Democratic media... the WSJ (owned by Murdoch, btw).

    Economy going south, seriously.

    73:

    Har-de-har har. And their idiot jailers will go home... as carriers.

    74:

    Pence is paranoid, so he may be so far away from any human being, even standing, that he might avoid it. Of course, that won't work well on the campaign trail.

    McConnell... please, please....

    75:
    Meanwhile the 5G "electromagnetic sensitivity" crowd are claiming that its actually a cover story for the illnesses created by the 5G rollout.

    Link, or search string? (I collect these things.)

    76:

    Trump is famously germaphobic so ironically may turn out to be one of the more enthusiastic adopters of enhanced hand-washing.

    78:

    Trump is famously germaphobic Oh, yes. (Well, probably excepting his philandering, if he still does that.) The Purell presidency: Trump aides learn the president’s real red line - A self-described germaphobe, the 45th president is strictly enforcing proper hygiene inside the White House — and wherever else he goes. (DANIEL LIPPMAN, 07/07/2019) (For non-Americans, PURELL is a hand-santizer brand sold in the US and maybe elsewhere.)

    79:

    "We are extreme hand washing. I mean extreme, extreme hand washing"

    80:

    Thank you. (Those are good links.)

    81:

    nobody is testing asymptomatic people en masse

    Yes, we were chatting about this this morning and had some doubts about the way the epistemology is being carried out.

    If you test as many asymptomatic people as possible who have warning signs like travel from China and contacts with the travelers, that's one thing. If you test asymptomatic people without warning signs, but that live in the neighborhood, that's another. And if you test asymptomatic people nowhere near any of those two, that's yet another.

    The testing kits or other means of identification are somewhat limited in number. What to do?

    82:

    This is very similar to precautions for patients who have received Radium-226 for treatment of metastatic hormone resistant prostate cancer.

    Which I happened to learn when I went down the rabbit-hole researching why Ra-226 concentrations in the nearby river jumped to detectable amounts about 6 months ago.

    83:

    Oh, yes, that's what I was going to say: SCREW HAND SANITIZER! It should die. No, GO USE SOAP AND WATER.

    Hand sanitizer is a major contributor to drug-resistant bugs.

    84:

    The one DJT uses (according to that news report from 2019/07) is 70% ethyl alcohol, no other active ingredients. That's considered acceptable, though suboptimal for COVID-19 compared to soap(/detergent) and water (Reason being lipid membrane, mentioned by Charlie at top.)

    85:

    FYI we get to see how prepared are the various global powers are for a WBD Bioweapon strike. It's clear public health wonks don't read tom clancy

    86:

    Great news, then! I live in Texas. It's 26 Celsius right now and will be 27 on Wednesday. Why do I not feel happy?

    87:

    Re: 'Ra-226 concentrations in the nearby river jumped to detectable amounts'

    What happened? This sounds 'unusual'.

    BTW - I'm unfamiliar with therapies for other cancers but wouldn't be surprised if they all stressed infection-avoidance.

    88:

    One possible positive outcome.

    If the South Korean and Iranian patterns are repeated there'll be a few less religious fundamentalists in the world so maybe we'll get a bit less asshattery over the next 5 years.

    Aside: Is shrine-licking really a thing? Almost sounds like deliberate false propaganda.

    Aside2 Any chance we can get Pence and Co to start kissing crosses?

    89:

    Is shrine-licking really a thing? Almost sounds like deliberate false propaganda.

    You're familiar with kissing the Pope's ring, yes? (That sort of ritual is more widespread than you might think.)

    90:

    @85: It's clear public health wonks don't read tom Clancy

    I assume you mean the earlier works he actually wrote, not those later "with" books. The wonks read them, all right; they just don't talk about them (in public).

    91:

    Also am I the only one who is disturbed by how close COVID is to CORVID?

    A feast for crows and all that.....

    92:

    Children apparently have a much lower mortality rate from this: possibly they're getting much milder cases.

    People with actual health problems, the kind that have them in nursing homes, are the ones most likely to die.

    Get your flu shot, if you haven't already. It won't stop COVID-19, but it will keep you from getting flu.

    93:

    In the US, we had our Civil War, which took down a lot of younger men. Their children /grandchildren/great-grandchildren were in WWI and WWII.

    94:

    I'm not going to be visiting my sis in NorCal anytime soon. She's one who would have trouble if she gets it: type-2 diabetes and late-stage kidney disease. She already has her medical stuff set up: DNR and the like. (So do I.) My brother and his wife are better off, and all three of them have hospitals near by.

    95:

    I'm hoping they're among those who get it. (Recovery is optional, based on how much of a problem they were before.)

    96:

    Well, then, with luck, we may get rid of a lot of folks who love to hurt the rest of us.

    I mean, kissing their stacks of money....

    97:

    Is shrine-licking really a thing? Almost sounds like deliberate false propaganda.

    When some of use visited the Blarney Castle a few years ago we all said, no way. But they line was continuous of people willing to lie on their back and serial kiss an old rock.

    And I still got SICK my last day in Ireland. Oh well.

    98:

    Get your flu shot, if you haven't already. It won't stop COVID-19, but it will keep you from getting flu.

    I wish people would stop makes such absolute statements. Each year there are multiple flu strains. The health wizard all get together 6 months or so ahead of time and try and guess which ones will be the most common. They they make a vaccine that has those in it. At times they guess wrong and flu rates go up. But getting a flu vaccine only helps if you are exposed to the most expected varieties. You can still get the others.

    But staying getting a flu shot prevents the flu just gives the anti vacers more ammunition when people with the shot get the flu.

    99:

    Er, why? Most hand sanitizer is either a concentrated alcohol or a bleach - no antibiotics involved - why should either of those cause drug-resistance?

    100:

    So tomorrow I plan to vote.

    Saturday night I came down with a nasty virus. Tests showed not the flu or strep. But I'm likely still spreading it as I feel like total crap. Head to toes. But my throat no longer feels like it is on fire.

    So now I get to pull up to the curb, explain my situation, and see how crazy the volunteer staff goes. I'll do it during a slow time so as to stay off the news.

    Here in NC we have curbside voting if there is a reason you can't or shouldn't go into the polling place. I'm thinking with everything else going on they will take the clipboard and pen I use and toss them into a trash bag and burn it.

    101:

    I'm 59 and in the last few months have been diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and hypertension in addition to the asthma I developed a few years ago. So this is getting quite personal.

    102:

    colortheorytoo @ 47: Definitely come uo with a back-up plan for your little dog; anything can happen any day and it will give you peace of mind.

    Had to go to the big-box home-improvement store this afternoon. Across the parking lot is the "Pet Hotel" where I used to board my cat when I had to be out of town on a weekend, so I went in and got him registered in their system just in case. Also gave them contact information for who can come get him in a worst case scenario.

    I have upped my handwashing/hand gel game since I had to travel unexpectedly three weeks ago. Trying to train myself not to touch my face but it’s hard.

    My current project is using the pandemic as a motivator to really put together a good earthquake kit since I live in Southern California. Trying for two weeks of food and 10 gallons of water. I have a little solar lantern that can charge our phones in a pinch.

    It would be hard for me to wash my hands more often without slipping over into extreme OCD. I wash my hands before using the rest room as well as after. My house is about as sanitary as a cave, especially with all the Jerry built/Jury rigged home repairs I've got in progress. It's an 85 year old frame house that didn't always get the maintenance it needs and now it's about to fall down around my ears. But it beats living under a bridge somewhere, which is the only alternative currently available.

    OTOH, I think there might be something to the "theory" that too sterile an environment might actually contribute to weakening our immune systems. If so, I'm definitely keeping mine well exercised.

    The threat around here is two pronged - hurricanes can knock power out for an extended period in the summer/fall and during the winter we get sleet/ice storms instead of snow. One side effect of my ongoing effort to rebuild the kitchen is I'm actually starting to keep staple foods in the house again because I finally have a secure way to store them & keep vermin out. I have a small generator capable of powering the refrigerator (w/ice maker) & a 4 cup Mr. Coffee and/or a microwave and I have a gas camp stove, along with a covered porch where I could set it up out of the weather. AND I'm getting a gas range this week.

    My mother-in-law and dad are both in extremely poor health and I am concerned about unknowingly infecting them when I go to visit...which brings up the issue of flying or driving. Driving would probably be better, and we could even camp along the way (it’s a two to three day drive) if motels seem problematic.

    I was listening to NPR this afternoon and they had a doctor on who said the surgical masks people are getting don't do much to protect you from getting the virus, but if you DO get the virus they are much more effective for keeping you from spreading it to others. I have a cartridge respirator. I wonder if that would be effective against viral aerosols? I probably should replace the cartridges while I can.

    Oh well. I was going to have to go back to the big-box home-improvement store again tomorrow anyway.

    103:

    As mentioned up thread "we're all going to die!!!". Eventually.

    The advice where I am is to ensure that you have at least two weeks worth of food etc., because of potential issues with supply chains.

    Hopefully for folks in the UK you can just keep up your levels of food, medicine, etc. that you prepared in case of hard brexit. There's nothing like hunger to make someone want to go outside...

    Remember to make sure it's food that you would eat normally (because you don't want a new diet when under stress, and for those with children, that's likely to cause them to eat less, and be more susceptible to illness). And if you don't eat rice and beans normally, why not? It's good cheap food, lasts for ages, and with the addition of some fruit and veg, has almost all you need.

    (Personally, I'm hoping that nothing happens where I am for just another six weeks...)

    105:

    Haj this year should be interesting.

    106:

    Nah, it’s the 5G that makes the vaccine mutate to cause gut disease that leads to autism once the chemtrails have their effects. Wake up sheeple!

    107:

    "...if they catch me and send me to hospital, I'll be billed vast sums I don't have, the debts will destroy my credit and collectors will chase me for life, I've got no sick pay, my job will sack me for missing a day, and I have rent due. I had better hide myself in a hole and cover my symptoms with dayquil."

    Thanks for the better world guys! (Remember, if someone has more than a hundred-million in the bank, it's not cannibalism!)

    108:

    You should start a YouTube channel. I think you'd do quite well!

    109:

    The Saudis have already banned foreign pilgrims from entering the country to vidit the holy sites.

    110:

    I'm sure the UK Cobra meeting considered situations where large numbers of people get together in close proximity since football and sporting events got mentioned. I've become fascinated by some that don't seem to get much attention.

    • Prisons. Do prisons act as incubators for flu each year? Do they already have procedures for managing highly contagious diseases?

    • Private schools and boarding schools. We'll know it's bad when Eton gets it's first case and shuts down. Bear in mind here that the UK private school system has a large number of children from rich foreign nationals that fly in each term or a couple of times a year. Because of course, that's where the money is.

    • Colleges and universities. Freshers flu and rave flu is a well known thing where everyone gets sick in the first week of term, especially the autumn term. The next mass movement will be the end of spring break and the start of the exam term where people will force themselves to go in no matter what health problem they've got. At least revision is self isolation. Note here this post about a Berkeley professor basically telling people to avoid lectures and work from home. It's also got some scary views about the likely Covid state of the Bay Area as of 2-Mar.
      https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/fchr2i/professor_jonathan_shewhuk_of_uc_berkeley_urgent/

    And then there's the London commute with it's packed trains, buses, DLR and tubes.

    Bonus link: My favourite World Population stat explainer has a page on Covid-19 for those who love checking stats obsessively. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    111:

    Paul @ 66 It's at times like this, that one wonders about the utility of Firing Squads .... The anti-vaxxers & "ems" crowds are actively dangerous & in the case of the a-v mob murderers. "WHat is to be done" ... about them .... since accurate public information doesn't seem to work.

    Of course guvmint public information has already poisoned its own well, the idiots ( Supposedly "safe" levels of alchohol consumption are just straight-out lies, based on no actual numbers at all, for instance )

    gordycole @ 91 Corvus corax specifically ... well-known for clearing up battlefields, etc

    112:

    Not mentioned above... China’s mortality rate is approx 60% men.

    Which may connect to smoking being far more prevalent in men in China than women. Or not!

    But I believe the mortality rate for children under 10 is still 0%.

    And those under 20 are doing nearly as well.

    113:

    Or men are more likely to be "in the system".

    114:

    ” The over 70 set having a much higher rate is part of that; if they're at 15, and children under 18 months are as well, ”

    Mortality rate in children under 18 months is 0% so far.

    This is a disease that kills old people and spares the young. So far.

    I’m relieved. I love my parents - but the death of my 78-year old dad would not be as awful as the death of my 18-year old daughter. The young are the future.

    115:

    ” Colleges and universities”

    The academic year started here in NZ two days ago. The universities are screaming about their losses from the govt not letting in Fee-paying Chinese students - we have had a travel ban from China for a few weeks.

    116:

    Old farts like me and other are at a higher risk of death from any respiratory related illness. Our lungs tend to be worn out and full of debris from decades of smoking, working in nasty places, or just life.

    117:

    Well the toilet paper shelves in the local supermarket were heavily depleted by panic buyers today, so I hope everyone’s happy. We bought eggs, milk and bananas, just in case people get really stupid because we probably need them tomorrow anyway. I expect that once the initial panic subsides people will calm the flowering heliconia down, but who knows? The hospital I work across the road from had its first confirmed walk-in case of COVID-19 today. It’s not the first in the local health servicet, we took a few passengers from that cruise ship in Japan, but it’s the first organic one so to speak. I assume we’re all getting it, so it’s a matter of getting on with things and dealing with it.

    Mostly life is complex enough anyway, panic buyers need to get over themselves. Best line of defence, ordinary soap, is plentiful and cheap.

    118:

    Hey. I bought TP a few days ago. But I like to keep a week or two on hand anyway because running out is so messy.

    I told my wife to buy a few extra canned goods that we normally eat. But not crazy amounts.

    119:

    Skimmed through the ~120 comments so far, so apologies.

    Not many found cases in NZ yet, I see one of the two latest 'suspects' tested negative. I have no idea if that Korean cult has a presence here - haven't looked yet. We'll be heading into autumn soon. The North Island is having a long dry summer so far but not hot enough to hit that 26deg point. Different weather in the South Island.

    I work in legal aid, a job that is adjacent to the Court system but not quite of it. That'll be interesting for the mixing up of people. Most of my own office's work-contact with the public is telephonic/electronic, but Courts and benefits buildings could be a heck of a place for stuff to mix. Even more than a typical shopping centre/mall. I have quite a few friends and people I deal with daily who will be in those buildings.

    I'm a union delegate (Public Service Association) we're talking with the H&S reps and management about things to do, but real life could move quicker than committees. We'll see I guess.

    On a selfish note, I hope that come June, or whenever, that things are stable enough that Charlie can still book his tickets down here to NZ for the WorldCon. With luck we won't go down as the lowest attended one since the 1950s, or that future post-apocalyptic WorldCon described in a short story which memory fails and I cannot find by quick googling.

    120:

    My grandfather had COPD, probably from silicosis or asbestosis. He had a small dairy farm for 40 years, but worked on the roads and in construction. When he was in hospital for his second knee replacement, he pointed to a lift well across the courtyard from his room, that he’d been involved in the concrete pour for a few decades previously. I wouldn’t have been surprised if that job gave him silicosis, but you just can’t tell. He died at 89 from an MI, but he certainly had congestive heart failure associated with the COPD, he only got diagnosed and started getting oxygen therapy a year or two beforehand, so there you go. Anyhow, COPD is not something I would wish on anyone and I hope you’re getting good treatment. I’m pretty confident you would be in the UK (as you would here too), but it’s a bastard of a thing all the same. Not sure if reliable enough batteries exist to make truly portable oxygen concentrator, I’d want to carry a backup bottle anyway, so it’s like everything is heavy for reasons that are not good ones.

    I have obstructive sleep apnea and hypertension. When the latter came to light, I adjusted sodium, fat and alcohol dramatically. But I’m the first to admit I’ve let all that slide a lot recently and the hypertension is currently barely controlled with my current medication regime (one type of ACE inhibitor), most likely I’ll end up needing some sort of combination. So I am probably stuffed if I don’t do the lifestyle adjustment, not so much to do with COVID-19, more to do with the breakdown of the supply chains due to climate change, not to mention power for the CPAP machine.

    But anyway I agree about the vulnerable, captive communities and I suppose that’s the next humanitarian crisis to watch for. We’re mostly here pretty spoiled 1st world adults who can do a lot for ourselves without even really trying, we have so much help surrounding us (well, leaving aside the situation of our US friends, which is potentially pretty rotten too). The engines of history are currently Syria, Gaza and so on, and they grind people up horribly.

    121:

    the flowering heliconia

    This expression reminds me of that one scifi book where there are these epidemic diseases which prepare the people for the next long season. Too bad the Covid-19 likely isn't going to prepare us better for the climate change...

    122:

    PS The office manager handed out a box of tissues to each staff member today. My brain is fuzzled...

    123:

    Not wanting to divert the thread, but apropos of the comments up thread I have to express my utter visceral bone-deep hatred of open-plan offices, exacerbated by the fact that the senior management who blabber on about how it increases "productivity" couldn't be pried out of their little private offices with a crowbar and dynamite. Hypocritical self-serving bastards that they are.

    124:

    Re: 'It's at times like this, that one wonders about ...'

    The below makes me wonder whether the Korean gov't would excuse/not charge someone barrelling along the highway in a car and leaving a trail of deaths if they 'apologized'. Think it's time to examine the legal/social definition of a 'weapon'.

    REUTERS:

    'The founder of the secretive church at the center of South Korea's coronavirus outbreak knelt in apology, as government prosecutors consider seeking murder charges him. The church may be liable for its refusal to cooperate with efforts to stop the disease.'

    125:

    'm sure the UK Cobra meeting considered situations where large numbers of people get together in close proximity

    The "Cobra meeting" is a backformation from "Cabinet Office Briefing Room 'A'", one of a couple of secure briefing rooms (no windows, electronically isolated, presumably checked regularly for bugs) used for emergency coordination. It really got traction during the Falklands War IIRC -- the acronym sounded so bad-ass that the newspapers kept using it and the cabinet office surrendered to the inevitable.

    We currently have a PM who loves to shake hands and doesn't seem to have got the memo about skin contact. And I'm guessing 20-50 people in a closed boardroom for those meetings.

    What are the odds that next week there's a local cluster in Whitehall where the Patient Zero was a COBR-A meeting attendee?

    On another note, I gather while some airlines are mothballing airliners due to lack of demand (notably Cathay Pacific, so far) the ultra-rich have caused a spike in bizjet rentals because they don't want to be exposed to the unwashed masses in airport hubs. Shame they haven't realized that the pilots and bizjet cabin crews they're locked in a small metal tube with for 3-8 hours are exposed to the rest of the airport folks anyway.

    I will note that I drive very little these days, but am getting my car roadworthy again (it's up for an MoT test this month and I'm doing more than the minimum to pass -- I want it usable). Eastercon is still possible, and my travel options are: fly via FlyBe (if they're not going bust again), 5 hours on a train, or a 6-7 hour road trip with co-driver. The road trip is not only cheaper, it's probably less likely to expose me to subclinically infected carriers if we're into the epidemic phase by then. (The co-driver is someone I share a bed with, so shrug.)

    126:

    I hope that come June, or whenever, that things are stable enough that Charlie can still book his tickets down here to NZ for the WorldCon.

    I'd really like to, but from where I live the exact antipodal point on a globe is about 300km south of the bottom of NZ's South Island. I literally have to fly halfway around the world to get there. Given the airlines and airports I'm willing to use (hint: no Ryanair, no British Airways or American, no Heathrow or Gatwick) this means flying a minimum of 3 sectors, and possibly 4, which means traversing 4-5 airport concourses over 30-40 hours. (Typically: Edinburgh-Frankfurt, Frankfurt-Singapore/HK, Sin/HK to SYD, SYD to final destination ... unless there's a direct service from the South China Sea to NZ.)

    There are way too many imponderables to make booking flights sensible at this point: like, are any of those airports going to be on lockdown 4 months in the future? Not to mention sitting in cramped aluminum tubes surrounded by possibly-infectious strangers for a couple of days, or whether I'll be in hospital myself.

    127:

    You're familiar with kissing the Pope's ring, yes? (That sort of ritual is more widespread than you might think.

    This past Sunday I happened to be looking at a TV display in a store and noticed that one of them was showing an outdoor Eucharist in Central America, complete with milling crowd and sacerdotes sequentially placing wafers in the mouths of the faithful. Hopefully the Holy Ghost was providing some cover.

    128:

    Thanks for the reply. As I said "I hope"... For now, everything is wait-and-see - so much unknown. Having done the UK-NZ trip a couple of times via several routes, yeah it's a bugger any which way even at the best of times.

    As long as things don't end up with WorldCon 78 being 500 people in hasmat suits with the only international guests being anyone based/stuck in NZ/Aus at the time... (see, I'm an optimist!)

    129:

    The local Anglican and Catholic churches have instructed clergy to place the wafer in the hand of the communicants, and for them to dip the wafer in the wine.

    Not perfect, but safer than the old way.

    130:

    I've done Edinburgh to Sydney a couple of times, and it's brutal: NZ is the equivalent of adding a shortest-possible trans-Atlantic flight on top. At my current age I can only contemplate it in business class (which costs). On the silver lining side of things: I suspect there will be deep discounts on business class seats during an epidemic -- airlines will prioritize keeping them filled even if they're running at a loss (losing 20% on a seat is better than losing 100% on an empty seat, and hopefully the prole who's enjoying the high life will come back and pay for more later, once they experience it).

    131:

    Too bad the Covid-19 likely isn't going to prepare us better for the climate change...

    We could get lucky here:

    The 'target demographic' for Covid-19 seems to rather generously include the 'Climate Change Oppostion': Nasty old rich people who are paying the "Aryan Anti-Thunberg", most of the toxic media moguls, most of the CEO-population, their common foot-soldiers: Brexiteers, Gammons and Climate-deniers, pretty much all of Donald Trumps cabinet, and most of the US senate and Congress!

    If it decimates and then comes back around next year and decimates again our current leadership we will be making great progress!

    Then we only need to find where 'Boris WWII Bunker' is so we can fart down the ventilation ....

    132:

    Have you considered Qatar? They go Edinburgh-Doha then Doha-Auckland. Not the ideal owners, I realize...

    133:

    Panic buying is stupid. Being prepared is not. Having two (or preferably four or more) weeks worth of supplies gives options. 1. If you are in a high-risk demographic, or if you cohabit with someone, then you can isolate yourself if needed. 2. If you get the illness and the government uses its, very conveniently passed in 2015, legislation to force you to stay at home, you've got supplies. (I heard an interesting thing on the radio today about how 'democracies' turn authoritarian. Of course, now I can't find what it was. I think the last few years have demonstrated that Australia is not immune.) 3. If a bunch of idiots panic buy, then you don't have to worry.

    If you live in an area prone to flooding then all the more reason.

    Of course, buy what you would eat anyway.

    134:

    "Have you considered Qatar? They go Edinburgh-Doha then Doha-Auckland. Not the ideal owners, I realize..."

    They all laughed when I bought my personal dirigible, but who's laughing now!

    135:

    The annoying thing about Wellington is that it's neither Auckland nor Christchurch, which appear to be the airline hubs for the North and South islands.

    We're doing London to Singapore to Auckland - two legs followed by a leisurely road trip down to Wellington - but Charlie has a deep dislike of LHR. Air New Zealand might have better options, but transiting at LAX is a no-go for my wife and me.

    136:

    I will not fly on any middle-eastern owned airline. That's a hard nope.

    137:

    We'll probably fly Lufthansa (IIRC Air NZ is in their alliance and serve KL or Singapore) and do the road trip thing too. Fly out a week before the worldcon so as to be over the jet lag.

    Air France is ... sub-optimal ... for anywhere in the southern hemisphere that isn't in South America.

    138:

    getting to NZ

    Have you looked into going the other way around? For example, there are direct flights from Santiago/SCL to Auckland/AKL, and you can get to Santiago via CDG (or, sorry, LHR).

    139:

    I think it's worth a bit to provide some context, esp. in the face of some of the more hyperbolic headlines: The CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html) estimates that the ordinary flu killed 34K Americans during the 2018-19 flu season, almost half a million were hospitalized, and over 35 million showed some symptoms.

    Nobody seemed to panic, the economy didn't crash and life went on. Granted, Corona seems to have a somewhat higher average mortality rate, but I'm not expecting any sort of system failures coming out of this.

    If the American gov response is esp. bad, it could conceivably affect the US presidential race. Maybe.

    140:

    Charlie Where Eastercon this year?

    BA are VERY variable - they can be good - depends on the route & airports (I think) Quaintarse are supposed to be very good indeed.....

    Someone at the Guildhall School of Music & Drama, smack in the middle of the Sq Mile has tested positive ....

    141:

    Eastercon this year is at the Birmingham Metropole - a frequent con hotel next to the NEC.

    142:

    Eastercon is in Brum (Hilton Metropole, IIRC). Might or might not be do-able. There's a shortage of direct flights from Edinburgh (if you stick to my rules, i.e. never EVER fly on Ryanair), I don't want to dog-leg via Amsterdam, and the direct train route is Cross-Country. Driving ... at least it's straightforward and we can stop for lunch en route.

    143:

    "...Corona seems to have a somewhat higher average mortality rate..."

    IIRC, the current range of estimates is from 10x to 20x the CFR of influenza.

    Taking the number which you gave, this might translate into 340K - 760K killed[1], and 5 million hospitalized. I checked recently, and got a figure of 3 million hospital beds in the USA, so this would seriously overload our health system.

    [1] I would expect less, because at that point we'd be in quarantine and serious lifestyle changes.

    144:

    And the high number of ICU stays would have broken that system down long before.

    145:

    "I will not fly on any middle-eastern owned airline. That's a hard nope."

    May I ask why?

    146:

    I was wrong - it's Ra-223 that is used as a radiopharmaceutical. The precautions about avoiding contamination from urination is because radium is excreted in the urine, at sufficient concentrations that others should not be inhaling any aerosols or ingesting from transfer contamination to the hands or face from surfaces.

    The common methods for determination of alpha emitting radium isotopes in water cannot distinguish between isotopes until higher concentrations are present. Ra-223 radiopharmaceutical is still a valid explanation considering the non-detectable historical results and the absence of any mining activity or effluent upstream of the measurement point.

    147:

    First off, the CDC is being operated by Trump appointees who have already made some absolutely indefensible decisions. CDC public statements are not the definitive voice of rationality and good statistics that they might have been in former days.

    Secondly, we don't know how lethal COVID-19 is. There are estimates, but the estimates all have very large error bars.

    Thirdly, the information emerging about the disease indicates that the only effective screening mechanism is to test absolutely everyone daily for two weeks. Nobody's in a position to do that; all the screens have leaked. So everybody's going to get it.

    Fourth, the economic uncertainty, which itself straight up kills people, is still increasing.

    Panic buying staple foodstuffs isn't an especially stupid means of reducing uncertainty. It's better to have a minimum-quantity-on-hand pantry with a month or so of shelf-stable staples all the time, but most of the population can't do that.

    148:

    There is a good chance it already has, though it won't be obvious for a couple of months yet.

    The additional 3 week shutdown of China after the normal Chinese New Year, and the resulting port issues in China, mean a lot of shelves will risk going empty at some point going forward.

    But the bigger problem for Trump is what is happening in the US.

    That panic buying is all money currently being spent, but money that will (given it is likely going onto credit cards) in the months ahead be repaid - by spending less in the lead up to the election. So retail could be hurt, meaning fewer hours for retail workers, rinse and repeat.

    But likely worse, given the uncertainty a lot of people will likely cut back/eliminated non-essential spending as they wait to see what happens, thus causing further retail strain.

    Business may also play a wait and see game, etc.

    Which is one of the reasons why Trump is trying to pretend nothing bad is happening in the US - he needs to maintain consumer confidence, and hence consumer spending, to keep the economy good for the next 8 months.

    149:

    Further to this, consider the list of cancelled conferences(*).

    Even if the hotels and airlines don't refund the booked flights/rooms, there will be a hit to the local businesses who don't have conference attendees spending money.

    This is all going to start appearing in statistics in the coming months.

    150:

    A better-than-usual guide to reducing face touching: How To Stop Touching Your Face - Amid the coronavirus outbreak, experts offer advice for doing the (seemingly) impossible and altering this common habit. (Caroline Bologna) My approach, mentioned above, is to make one finger on each hand smelly (with a liquid skin crack sealant or liquid bandage, currently); that, with a working nose, is a real-time hand-near-face proximity alarm. Biotech.

    151:

    Perhaps it will finally get people to learn what telecommunications are for, then. Perhaps if we're really really lucky they'll even remember the lesson afterwards.

    152:

    I’ve been building up a reserve of food etc. in a measured way over the past week. But for me this is overdue as I live in earthquake country. Storage is a real issue but if it’s a matter of life and death I suppose I can get over stumbling over the crates of supplies. I feel that this virus is a Hurricane Katrina for the whole country...so I think people are wise to err on the side of caution.

    My husband and I are supposed to go to Vienna for a science meeting in May...we’ll see...I wouldn’t blame the Europeans for not wanting to let us nasty, germy USAns in.

    154:

    As a (fellow) despiser of open plan layouts[2] (who has read all of the academic literature on the subject; there is literally nothing of substance supporting them except higher physically packing of employees), this warmed my heart (bold mine): Keeping our employees and partners safe during #coronavirus (twitter.com, Sunday, 1 March 2020) In addition to the travel, event and visitor restrictions that we previously shared, today we provided additional guidance as we look to protect the health and safety of our workforce. Beginning today, we are strongly encouraging all employees globally to work from home if they’re able.

    And Jack Dorsey[1]: To quote one of the loudest advocates of open-plan offices, Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter: We encourage people to stay out in the open because we believe in serendipity—and people walking by each other teaching new things.”

    Sadly, it will be hard to measure the productivity benefits (of telling people in working in hives optimized for rapid spreading deadly infections to work from home) against an economic downturn. I hope a few people try.

    [1] Good rant: Open-plan offices are the sweatshops of the West (Matej Latin, 01 Feb 2019) [2] layouts with essentially no visual or auditory barriers, generally tightly packed.

    155:

    Also poppy seeds. As in those little black specks you often find on bread rolls ...

    Singapore prohibits importation of those1, but I don't think they're going after individual seeds.

    1 As I understand it you can import them, but they have to be tested first to make sure there's no detectable opiate level in them

    156:

    And there's another one where if we're really really lucky people might just remember the lesson afterwards.

    157:

    I feel that this virus is a Hurricane Katrina for the whole country...so I think people are wise to err on the side of caution.

    I think that's an excellent way to put it.

    I generally have a couple weeks food on hand; the ~20 kg mixed weird grains order should arrive tomorrow. (About 200 grammes of boiled MWG is a meal; if I need more than that it's the apocalypse and I don't need to exercise much further concern.)

    158:

    Conversely, the Diocese of Chichester say not to dip the wafer in the wine:

    Because hands can be as much a source of pathogens as lips, intinction is no safer than drinking and can introduce germs into the cup. Intinction (dipping the bread into the wine) can also threaten those with certain immune or allergic conditions. For instance, those with gluten intolerance for whom traces of gluten can be hazardous are at greater risk when other communicants have dipped their communion wafer into the wine.

    As for kissing things: Six weeks hence it'll be Good Friday, when it's customary for the whole congregation to kiss a wooden cross.

    159:

    Thanks guys, for all the responses to my comment, but I'm still not convinced that the Coronavirus compares to the ordinary flu in terms of seriousness...

    Barry, @143: "IIRC, the current range of estimates is from 10x to 20x the CFR of influenza."

    The estimates I've seen indicate the overall mortality rate is likely somewhere around 3% or so. See many comments upstream from here. There is also the question of how contagious the CV is compared to the influenza, and how far we can expect it to spread, before warmer weather kicks in. I don't expect tens of millions at this point.

    @Graydon @147: Please do not impune the reputation of every civil servant and technical expert in the US government simply because they work downstream of the D. I think it's likely that the vast majority of the health care scholars and statisticians working at the CDC are dedicated to protecting the public health (and lets give some recognition of the pushback against the administration that frequently occurs in the face of WH propaganda). See here: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/03/politics/coronavirus-trump-cdc-timeline/

    "...A close examination of the timeline from the past two months reveals how US health officials took active steps to deal with the crisis as information trickled out of China, a country led by an authoritarian government that has been criticized for its censorship and handling of the crisis.

    Regardless, with the available information, US health officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention took bold steps to prepare for the outbreak. "

    I think it's really important not to fall victim to the "everyone lies" fallacy--that actually plays right into the hands of the propaganda machine and the goals of global oligarchy. There are many people out there still telling the truth to power. Let's listen to them.

    Mdive @148: I don't want anyone to die or suffer if avoidable, but I've been waiting several years for DT's evident incompetence to bite him in the butt, and maybe this will be it. The economy is taking a hit, mostly so far it seems to be the stock market, which means The Republican's donor class, and that more than anything else may be responsible for the administration backing off the more explicit and extreme comments they made at first (democrat hoax, etc.).

    Consumer confidence taking a hit as a result of something Trump does is, frankly, nothing new (trade war anyone?), and by itself, that won't change the outcome of the election, unless it goes so far as to negatively impact employment, which seems farfetched. But a colossal failure to act effectively, even if the country itself finds a way to cope with the epidemic (which I am willing to bet will happen), would at least give the Democratic challenger more ammunition to through at him in the ensuing months.

    160:

    Nasty old rich people who are paying the "Aryan Anti-Thunberg...

    For anyone who missed the context of this, yes, there's a right-wing teenager called the "Anti-Greta," who at only nineteen years old has white nationalist baggage, which is not attractive in anyone but particularly worrying in Germans for some of us.

    161:

    The estimates I've seen indicate the overall mortality rate is likely somewhere around 3% or so.

    Which is about 30 times the mortality rate associated with a regular winter flu, and about double the 1918-20 Spanish Flu.

    This is not panic-worthy; it's not the black death. But is is going to be disruptive if it turns out to be remotely as infectious as is currently believed.

    162:

    Damian @ 117: Well the toilet paper shelves in the local supermarket were heavily depleted by panic buyers today, so I hope everyone’s happy. We bought eggs, milk and bananas, just in case people get really stupid because we probably need them tomorrow anyway. I expect that once the initial panic subsides people will calm the flowering heliconia down, but who knows? The hospital I work across the road from had its first confirmed walk-in case of COVID-19 today. It’s not the first in the local health servicet, we took a few passengers from that cruise ship in Japan, but it’s the first organic one so to speak. I assume we’re all getting it, so it’s a matter of getting on with things and dealing with it.

    Mostly life is complex enough anyway, panic buyers need to get over themselves. Best line of defence, ordinary soap, is plentiful and cheap.

    David L @ 118: Hey. I bought TP a few days ago. But I like to keep a week or two on hand anyway because running out is so messy.

    I told my wife to buy a few extra canned goods that we normally eat. But not crazy amounts.

    I hope the shelves have been restocked. I normally do my grocery shopping on Tuesdays ... I play music on Tuesday nights & there's an alignment between home, Costco, the grocery stores I shop at (now that the new Wegmans is open) and the place I play that makes it possible for me to hit all of them in one trip, thereby reducing my carbon footprint. I was thinking about getting toilet paper. I get the BIG 30 roll package at Costco & I'm currently down to only a dozen rolls (2 six packs) on hand. I generally prefer not to get too close to running out.

    I'm getting REAL CLOSE to being finished with my kitchen rebuild and I'm starting to stock up now that I finally have kitchen cabinets (hung the last ones on Sunday). I've just a few aggravating minor details to complete and I'll be set where I don't have to go out into the cold cruel world unless I want to (or need to do my weekly grocery shopping).

    163:

    Robert van der Heide @ 104: Enjoy your bottle of Corona with a wedge of Lyme.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyme_disease

    That's one I DO actually worry about, because it can lurk undetected in your system for years before suddenly flaring up and crippling you. I had Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, another tick-borne disease (thank you Ft. Hood, Texas!), so I've been warned I'm at extra risk.

    164:

    Charlie Stross @ 125: I will note that I drive very little these days, but am getting my car roadworthy again (it's up for an MoT test this month and I'm doing more than the minimum to pass -- I want it usable). Eastercon is still possible, and my travel options are: fly via FlyBe (if they're not going bust again), 5 hours on a train, or a 6-7 hour road trip with co-driver. The road trip is not only cheaper, it's probably less likely to expose me to subclinically infected carriers if we're into the epidemic phase by then. (The co-driver is someone I share a bed with, so *shrug*.)

    I've heard of the MoT test, but I don't think I've ever had it explained what it involves. I have the impression it's required like our annual "safety" inspection, but yet I've heard of people driving cars that don't have a "MoT". Would someone please elaborate on what's involved?

    165:

    Alright, here are a couple of tidbits.

    One is that there is a conspiracy theory running around in South Korea right now. Supposedly Shincheonji Leader ( wannabe messiah) Lee Man-Hee, when he kowtowed in apology, flashed a gold watch given to him by the previous (now jailed) SK President Park Guen-hye. The theory is that Lee was deliberately trying to destabilize the current President Moon by spreading Covid-19. Moon does have more than 1 million signatures against him on a petition to oust him from office over his handling of the Covid-19 outbreak. On the other hand, my limited understanding of Korean customs suggests that a leader of a group kowtowing in apology may make it that much harder for the lawyers defending that group to say that they weren't responsible. Since they're considering murder and other charges against Lee and members of his inner circle, I'd say that Shincheonji is about to enter the official persecution phase of the messianic cult cycle.

    Oh, and apparently Covid-19 is caused by SARS-Cov2, which means this virus is basically SARS 2.0, a more-adapted-to-humans strain of SARS. It's ba-ack. I'm thinking we maybe should start calling SARS batshit fever, but apparently that isn't accurate. Probably the more accurate moniker would be "wet market fever," which would place the blame squarely where it belongs, on those well-designed viral spillover enhancement facilities, the live wildlife/wet markets of China. Anyway, we're stuck with Covid-19 and SARS, which is the limit of our creativity.

    In the technothriller/SF world of short term prognostication, This article from Science can cause additional cheer/angst. Apparently, the Chinese draconian crackdown did limit the spread of Covid-19, at least in the short term. They have to ease up on the quarantine pretty soon, at which point we'll know whether going draconian with all five claws was sufficient to permanently stop the spread or not. I've got mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, I'm sufficiently worried that I do hope it worked. No point in a global pandemic, especially if mortality does shoot up where hospitals get overwhelmed (as in Wuhan).

    The bigger problem is that, if China's measures even appear successful, places like the US and the UK may well try to copy the draconian quarantines, which are also a useful way to spread authoritarianism and racism. That part I'm not happy about.

    The good note is that kids seem to be largely immune to SARS. To them it's just another cold. It's a killer of the old and compromised, like some of us here. Scary, but it won't take down civilization any more than smallpox did. If it does get loose in the US though, it may well facilitate a shift in power towards the young, for all the good and ill that causes. And if things get ugly, it may shift power towards authoritarianism, as the jackals try to seize this emergency and use it to gain power.

    166:

    Conversely, the Diocese of Chichester say not to dip the wafer in the wine:

    It seems that this matter is causing a certain amount of confusion and distress.

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/french-dioceses-ban-holy-communion-on-tongue-as-coronavirus-spreads

    167:

    I've done Edinburgh to Sydney a couple of times, and it's brutal: NZ is the equivalent of adding a shortest-possible trans-Atlantic flight on top. At my current age I can only contemplate it in business class (which costs).

    My daughter and her husband just did JFK to LHR to DXB to SYD then to NZ. (Not sure of that last leg or two). What made it somewhat tolerable was the LHR/DXB/SYD in an A380 suite. All on points. They came back via the Pacific route in economy though. Then slept a lot the next few days. To bad the EU/UK doesn't have credit card points the way we do in the US.

    168:

    There's a whole book on it, so this is very abbreviated...

    It is a mandatory annual safety inspection, required for all cars over 3 years old (but, as of a couple of years ago, not for cars over 40 years old). There are a few exemptions, such as recovery trucks or agricultural vehicles (per the legal definition thereof), but next to nobody falls under them. Driving without an MoT is illegal; people who report doing it are basically admitting to having taken the chance.

    It involves a visual inspection of safety-related components - suspension, structure, brake gear, lights, door catches, etc - plus measurement of brake force, and of emission levels for newer cars. It does not check mechanical functions per se, so in theory a car could pass the MoT without an engine in it (although they would probably refuse to do the test on the grounds of all the shoving around). It also does not check anything that would involve taking things apart - so if a car has those horrible plastic sill trim cover things on it, the structural metal of the sills themselves can have rotted away completely underneath but it'll still pass the MoT because they're not allowed to take the covers off to look.

    169:

    "Scary, but it won't take down civilization any more than smallpox did."

    It was pretty bloody effective at taking down civilisations that weren't used to it.

    170:

    REAL CLOSE to being finished with my kitchen rebuild and I'm starting to stock up now that I finally have kitchen cabinets

    Extra rations can sit in the middle of the living room for a week or few. At least in my world.

    But my wife and I do inhabit different worlds at times.

    171:

    «  (Typically: Edinburgh-Frankfurt, Frankfurt-Singapore/HK, Sin/HK to SYD, SYD to final destination ... unless there's a direct service from the South China Sea to NZ.) « 

    Consider stopping in Singapore for a night at the airport hotel. A chance to sleep in a real bed, lounge about the pool, unkink ones legs. There are several flights HK/Sin to NZ, but to Auckland or Chch not Wellington.

    The big changes in NZ international flights the last few years is addition of various routes by Chinese airlines, via China.. Most of which are currently cancelled.

    If you are thinking business class, then Air NZ flies direct from Heathrow with a very nice business class. With a refuelling pause in HK. You might consider if that is worth compromising your no Heathrow stance.

    Lots of flights HK/Sin to Auckland or Christchurch.

    172:

    MoT

    Sounds like our current North Carolina inspection. Some better, some worse.

    While in Pennsylvania I learned their inspections were a bit more complete in terms of braking and body parts. With all the salt used thy want to make sure body panels are not about to fall off and that you can stop if the brakes are applied.

    Given our climatic variations states tend to have differing emphasis on what they inspect for. And for many (most?) states you can't renew the registration without an inspection (if one is required). It is all computerized.

    About 10 years ago I got a nasty gram from the state DMV cancelling my registration and insurance due to a lack of inspection. But I did have the sticker and the receipts. The garage forgot to do the equivalent of hitting "Save" when they completed the inspection. At least they stood up for their mistake and dealt with the DMV to get it all worked out.

    173:

    Smallpox alone didn't take down any civilization. Military action plus a variety of Eurasian pandemic diseases was much more effective, at least in the Western Hemisphere.

    The bigger point is that losing 10-30% of a population doesn't necessarily doom western civilization, so I don't expect that Covid-19 will do it any more than the flu does, at least by itself.

    The bigger problem is the Four Horseman of war, pandemics, and famine. They tend to be tied together, in that a breakdown in society's systems caused by unrest, epidemic disease, or crop failure tends to spiral, causing the other two to show up in due course, followed by a lot of people dying from all three causes combined. That's the utility of this particular mnemonic.

    Right now, we are all worried about this happening, but so long as we react appropriately and don't over-react, it probably won't destroy civilization. And even if we screw up, it probably won't destroy civilization.

    It may well kill some of us though, and that would truly suck.

    174:

    So tomorrow I plan to vote.

    Voted early this morning. Most of my symptoms were gone so I went in to vote.

    I was #25 at 7:30am which means almost no one is going to vote today and/or most plan to vote later and/or most voted via early voting.

    If the plan is to vote later after work then turnout will be down as we're expecting rain across much of the state for the rest of the day. Which will likely help Bernie as his troops really mobilized for early voting. And some people might be getting scared to get out into such areas where lots of people pass through.

    As a reference I think we have around 1200+ people registered to vote at my polling place.

    175:

    Does flights.google.com work in the UK or EU? Or the equivalent URL for the specific country?

    176:

    You know, there is actually stuff sold for things like that. The one I'm aware of is called "bitter orange", or some such, and it's OTC in drug stores.

    177:

    Two words: porridge oats.

    50-60 grams simmered for 10-15 minutes in 400ml of water (optionally: 50/50 water and skimmed milk for a smoother mouth-feel) will make for a basic meal. Add a pinch of salt or a spoonful of sugar (or non-glycemic sweetener) to taste: alternatively mix with dried fruit.

    It doesn't last forever but you can store a startling number of meals at the back of the refrigerator and as long as you've got power (or gas) you can cook it. Gets slash-your-wrists boring eventually, though.

    178:

    Isn't that the "stop a kid from sucking their thumb" stuff?

    179:

    MoT (Ministry of Transport test) -- these days, a VOSN (vehicle operator something something). You need to get your vehicle certified every 12 months after it's 3 years old or it's not road-legal and, more importantly, you can't get insurance. (Insurance is mandatory: driving without it can get you a fine, penalty points on your driver's license, and your vehicle seized and crushed).

    Covers roadworthiness (brakes, tire tread, lights), structural soundness (nothing falling off due to rust), emissions, and all the stuff you'd expect: goal is to ensure that cars much be verified as safe for other road users at least once within the preceding 12 months.

    It's prudent to get the car serviced (oil, coolant, filters changed) and brakes checked at the same time, if not more often.

    180:

    I wonder how air conditioning interacts with COVID-19. (This seems a reasonable response to the Texas question.)

    OTOH, I haven't been able to get any answer from Google as to what temperature is needed to deactivate COVID-19. It seems that hot food should be safe, as I found a link that said either heat or alcohol would do the job, but didn't say how much of either. Perhaps I should add v. high proof grain spirits to my coffee.

    181:

    You're all so pessimistic! Look on the long term bright side - all those empty care home places, no more seriously long term sick to burden the NHS. Boris can finally deliver on his NHS promises. Then there are the millennial whiners who will inherit houses and start voting Tory. Of course, half of the readership of this blog will probably be kicking off as well. I find it all rather exciting.

    182:

    Soap and water kill, and get rid of them. Sanitizer - you betting that when you wipe it off, gets all of them?

    And I've read how the sanitizing soaps, and sanitizers, are not used fully, and result in that - that was in medical reports.

    183:

    When you note that China's fatalities are about 60% men, you don't state the percentage of men in the population. There was certainly a period quite recently when female children were frequently killed, so an elderly population of 60% men, or even higher, wouldn't be too surprising.

    184:

    Five points! Five conspiracy theories in one! Ellen and I both laughed.

    Bravo! Bravissimo!

    185:

    Yippee campaign slogan from '68: eat the rich!

    186:

    Dried fruit helps, and so does having flavorings. (I've had it with a little chai spice - it was surprisingly good. My sis has used a red/black pepper mix - about 3 parts coarse-ground black pepper to one part red pepper, like cayenne.) Consider adding some flaxseed or other ready-to-cook grains to it, also.

    187:

    And while I remember, unless she is already bunkered down I don't expect the Queen to survive. If Charles also succumbs does that mean that its King Harry and Queen Meghan? Or are we talking King Pedo the First?

    188:

    It's William after Speaker-to-Plants, then Wills and Kate's sprogs then Harry and his offspring. Only then does Andrew get a look in.

    189:

    Honey also stores virtually forever and can be bought in bulk

    Rice is another good one, as are certain kind of beans

    I usually just go the dehydrated / freeze dried route because I want 30 days of food always on hand and don’t want to have to bother to keep cycling it. But that’s more expensive

    190:

    Don't forget dietary fats; this usually means vegetable oil for shelf storage. Grapeseed doesn't taste like anything much, which can be an advantage after a while.

    191:

    MICROWAVE. Porridge + milk (real milk), 3 mins, add a drop more milk & stir, 2.5 mins, done. Uses a lot less energy, quicker, doesn't dirty a saucepan, and you don't have to keep stirring it to stop it burning on the bottom.

    The microwave has rendered all those variants on Chernobyl kids' breakfast obsolete - they are no quicker or easier than the real thing.

    One possible problem is your gut rebelling, though - I once lived on porridge for a fortnight and then spent 2 days throwing up.

    193:

    It’s no good trying to flatter me - I know you’re one of the LizardGreyAlienIlluminatiRothschildCabot elite!

    194:

    David L @ 174:

    So tomorrow I plan to vote.

    Voted early this morning. Most of my symptoms were gone so I went in to vote.

    I was #25 at 7:30am which means almost no one is going to vote today and/or most plan to vote later and/or most voted via early voting.

    I was #248 at 10:00am. There were actually 4 or 5 other voters in there while I was there. Usually there's only 1 other voter when I go in at mid-morning, if any.

    195:

    I'm not convinced any USasian style with prepping makes sense in the UK.

    Bear in mind the UK is roughly the same area as Michigan, but with almost 7 times the population density. Drop off the Highlands of Scotland and NornIron (sorry) and it skews denser still, with a good 20+ millions worth within a 2hr drive of Birmingham. The UK

    Either we are sorted within 2 weeks including intermittent infrastructure breakdown including water supplies or its total Mad Max territory. That density means it should be relatively easy to maintain services to most people. The UK and Japan rank roughly equal interms of GDP per capita per square mile and probably skews better for arable land - add in still a half decent Health system and there are much much worse places to ride out several different magnitudes of apocalypse.

    2 weeks worth of supplies and some electrolytes and water purification tablets are probably massive overkill.

    My wife laughed at me for doing the above purely for 14 day quarantine purposes - til she found out one of our friends - a local GP (Dr) was doing the same thing.

    196:

    2 weeks worth of supplies and some electrolytes and water purification tablets are probably massive overkill.

    The point is not to weather a breakdown in services; the point is to not need to go outside that whole two weeks.

    This is expensive in terms of the economic hit; in terms of the "well, if you never interact with anybody, the virus can't spread" it's a brute force solution. It has the considerable benefit of being likely to work. (Plan for a month. We don't actually know for sure all the COVID-19 variants fit into the two week window.)

    197:

    Anyone know whether the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracking site has changed how they track cases because the numbers look buggered up, i.e., they don't add up. Plus the time stamp is for this morning and the last time I looked was early afternoon and the site showed a pm time stamp.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    198:

    Charlie Stross @ 179: MoT (Ministry of Transport test) -- these days, a VOSN (vehicle operator something something). You need to get your vehicle certified every 12 months after it's 3 years old or it's not road-legal and, more importantly, you can't get insurance. (Insurance is mandatory: driving without it can get you a fine, penalty points on your driver's license, and your vehicle seized and crushed).

    Covers roadworthiness (brakes, tire tread, lights), structural soundness (nothing falling off due to rust), emissions, and all the stuff you'd expect: goal is to ensure that cars much be verified as safe for other road users at least once within the preceding 12 months.

    It's prudent to get the car serviced (oil, coolant, filters changed) and brakes checked at the same time, if not more often.

    So it is pretty much like our annual state inspection, which in North Carolina has to be done within 60 days prior to renewing your license tag. I don't know if they check "structural soundness", but I know you can't have a rusty muffler even if the vehicle will pass the emissions test. It also won't pass the test if they can't read the OBD codes (On Board Diagnostics) on later model vehicles. Don't get a new battery installed and take it straight down to the inspection station. It takes 30 - 60 miles for the computer to reset after the battery has been disconnected.

    If you don't get the inspection done, you can't renew your license plate. Driving without proper tags can get you a REALLY BIG fine, although I think the state gives you a bit of grace - 15 days into the next month - but you can actually lose your driver's license for a flagrant violation. Insurance is also mandatory here and if you forget to renew they take your license plate and it's another really big fine if you don't turn them in BEFORE your insurance lapses PLUS another big fine to get them back (plus your premiums are likely to go up) if you didn't turn them in on time.

    And still, there's idiots get caught all the time driving without a license, driving without insurance and driving without proper tags. It's mostly people who lost their driving privilege to DWI (Drink Driving), but a few are political idiots who think they have a right to drive without complying with the law.

    199:

    "Plan for a month. We don't actually know for sure all the COVID-19 variants fit into the two week window."

    That's a nice idea, but it only works if everybody you encounter once you re-emerge from your cocoon did precisely the same thing, at the same time.

    (Wasn't there an XKCD calculation that we would be able to eradicate the common Cold that way ?)

    Realistically, you will need to stay isolated until the pandemic has fizzled entirely out on its own, or until a working vaccine you can tolerate has been waiting outside your dwelling for three weeks.

    It's called a pandemic, because there is no escaping it.

    200:

    I'll raise you mealie meal (maize) porridge! NOT something you want to eat without strong flavourings ....

    I have just bought 28 freeze-dried meals, but mainly for cycle-touring. For breakfast, I will have muesli (Dorset Cereals). If we go into lockdown before then, we shall eat those ....

    201:

    Actually, soap and water doesn't kill anything much, not even if you use 'medicated' soaps. The point about sanitizers is that they can be used after touching unsafe things when out - you may not have access to soap and water and, even if you do, the handles on the way out are sources of infection.

    I can see no reason to do anything special at home. In a household, if one person has it, everyone is exposed.

    202:

    Is that your own work? It seems similar to a (longer, less coherent) conspiracy theory that's been doing the rounds recently.

    Poe's law, of course, prevents us from working out whether the original posting was sincere, and it has been taken down though the content has been copypasted around quite a bit:

    The vaccine contained replicating, DIGITIZED (controllable) RNA which were activated by 60Ghz mm 5G waves that were just turned on in Wuhan (as well as all other Countries using 60Ghz 5G ) with the “smart dust” that everyone on the globe has been inhaling through chemtrails. That’s why when they say someone is “cured”, the “virus” can be “digitally” reactivated at any time and the person can literally drop dead. The Diamond Princess Cruise ship was SPECIFICALLY equipped with 60Ghz 5G. It’s basically remote assassination. Americans are currently breathing in this “smart” dust through chemtrails. Think of it like this….. add the combination of vaccines, chemtrails (smart dust) and 5G and your body becomes internally digitized and can be remotely controlled. A person’s organ functions can be stopped remotely if one is deemed non-compliant. Wuhan was a test run for ID2020. The elite call this 60Ghz mm 5G wave the “V” wave (Virus) to mock us. Trump has created a space force in part to combat this weaponized technology. We need to vehemently REJECT the attempted “mandatory vaccine” issue because our lives depend on it.

    Trump as saviour is a particularly good touch, I thought, though you do win some points for including autism.

    203:

    Firing squads... I dunno, for some of the wealthy, and some politicians (and some of that is repetition), maybe a gallows would make more impression on them.

    Or the "Humane Invention".

    204:

    Oh, crap. They could be hurting... for that matter, though, we're starting to worry about our cons, like Balticon, Memorial Day weekend (or Heliospehere, next month, that we'll be at).

    205:

    Fully understand people changing in SYD rather than Auckland to get to Wellington. Check if you will have to change terminals in SYD. Transfer to Domestic at AKL involves going outside, although there is a free bus option. Currently only arrivals from AU and USA can use the eGates, due to COVID-19 measures (normally most of Europe + several others can also). https://www.customs.govt.nz/personal/travel-to-and-from-nz/travelling-to-nz/on-your-arrival/

    AirNZ normally doesn't care if you are flying one-way or return, so driving AKL-WLG and flying back not especially expensive. WLG-AKL tickets currently NZD69 to NZD324, but variation very much driven by time of day.

    Everybody remember that your chances of getting your travel insurance to pay out on COVID-19 related disruptions is very poor if you didn't buy it before February (and not always if bought earlier).

    206:

    Stop. Right now. They did not fire everyone in the CDC, or in the NIH. They mostly still know what they're talking about... or did yuo not hear that the Orange Idiot was told no, we're not going to have a vaccine before the election?

    More at: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/anthony-fauci-trump-coronavirus-crisis-118961

    207:

    We're all going to get it.

    It matters immensely whether we all get it over the course of the next two weeks, three months, or year, though. "Everybody stay in" is an attempt to buy the year time frame.

    208:

    The White House overruled the CDC on returning people from Japan. It looks like the CDC appointee refused to use the WHO test (so the US started off using an ineffective test and is not yet able to test in the necessary volume despite the best efforts of various states) and is responsible for the "only if you have a point of contact AND all the symptoms" testing rule being used which is actively harmful.

    Individual working for the CDC? If you happen to know one, sure, useful source. Official public announcements? Unfortunately pretty suspect. We know they've been politically overridden and we know there have been those two actively harmful policy calls.

    209:

    You think you know. Actually, you (lt)fnord(gt) know nothing, and the nice people bashing in your door will make sure of it...

    210:

    Classmates of a student in coronavirus quarantine shook hands with Mike Pence

    The steps seem to be:

  • Patient who tested positive.
  • Mother of student - came in contact with patient in professional capacity - in precautionary quarantine.
  • Student - in precautionary quarantine.
  • Classmates.
  • Mike Pence.
  • 211:

    I wonder if this means that the Tangerine Terror will hold meetings with Pence in a hazmat suit - even if Pence turns out not to have coronavirus?

    212:

    China's one child policy started in 1979, so that gender-imbalanced cohort is roughly in their 30s. So the higher mortality rate for men would not appear to be driven by a gender imbalance.

    I suspect that the high rate of smokers in China is a contributing factor, particularly since about half of all Chinese men (18+) smoke. But as Chinese government owns the tobacco monopoly and so profits from the sale of cigarettes, I cannot imagine much of public discussion on the topic.

    213:

    When you note that China's fatalities are about 60% men, you don't state the percentage of men in the population. There was certainly a period quite recently when female children were frequently killed, so an elderly population of 60% men, or even higher, wouldn't be too surprising.

    No. More elderly women than men in China (like almost everywhere else, as women just live longer). From the CIA Worldbook for 2019:

    65 years and over: 11.27% of Chinese population (male 74,277,631 /female 81,828,269) (2018 est.)

    It's the young in China that are predominantly male: 0-14 years: 17.22% of Chinese population (male 128,270,371 /female 110,120,535) 15-24 years: 12.32% of Chinese population (male 91,443,139 /female 79,181,726)

    And that male/female imbalance in the young is largely due to couples being more likely to have another kid if they didn't get a boy the first time around. Not infanticide.

    214:

    Pfui. Maize porridge, or polenta, is what happens when white people don't bother to ask brown people how to cook something before taking it as a crop. If you want to get the proper nutrients out of maize, you need to nixtamalize it, at least with wood ashes, to make hominy, grits, or masa to make tortillas. That's the proper way to eat corn. Keeps you from getting pellagra.

    Anyway, for those who are going all iron age and abandoning bread in favor of gruel and pottage, every grain can be made that way, although some (notably maize) really should be properly treated, rather than just soaked, boiled, and glumly spooned up. If you're so far gone in fear that gruel (not even malting or pan-frying the grains, no less!), telling you there's a point to eating bread (or drinking your grains in other yeast-processed forms) is a waste of time.

    So instead, I'll point you towards ful mudammas, which is basically soup made from reconstituting dried fava beans (add a bit of baking soda and you don't have to skin the beans). It's a really old dish, quite nutritious, and quite yummy with things like parsley, chopped tomato, an egg, hot peppers, etc. Traditionally it's one of those dishes where you start with the basic ful (pronounced "fool") and decorated to the taste of the person eating it. It works as breakfast in the Mediterranean, or dinner if you're vegan. It's also pretty fast when cooked in a pressure cooker, or quite slow if you have to do it on the stove top.

    215:

    Do recall the degree of mysophobia involved; this is someone who advocated for permanently refusing reentry to AmCits who went to help with the Ebola outbreak, and apparently sincerely viewed this as just plain common sense.

    The question might be more appropriately "who gets picked as the alternative running mate?" should Pence become known to have been infected.

    COVID-19 is alleged to be doing a number on the senior ayatollahs, courtesy of their health minister's exposure and face-to-face meetings; it would be ironic in a divine degree of the same thing happened to Trump's cabinet, but I don't think that's especially likely.

    217:

    Already saw a rag's headline that he'll dump Pence and get Nikki Haley?

    218:

    Dumb question time: Could you use a 3D printer to make a respiratory mask?

    219:

    The White House overruled the CDC on returning people from Japan.

    Are you sure. I know it is a fine line but I thought it was local State Dept folks who over ruled the CDC staff.

    Based on the way DT looks at all of this he would have not brought back ANYONE who had sneezed in the previous 2 weeks.

    220:

    Nikki Haley

    Agree or disagree with her politics, she has a backbone and speaks her mind.

    She has already contradicted the DT in public.

    So, nope.

    221:

    Nope. The effectiveness of the mask comes from the filter, which comes from precise tiny holes. Three-D printers are nothing like sufficiently precise.

    The masks are most effective to keep you from infecting other people, and then only if you wear it properly and continuously. As a sole means of avoiding infection they're doubtful.

    (Note what the folks in the medical profession are wearing as well as the masks.)

    Mask technology is much much better than it used to be; you can get a serviceable gas mask for about 250 USD, purely as a civilian "organic vapour" PPE purchase. The N95 and N99 masks are much cheaper than they were, too. Still no substitute for hand washing.

    (If you find that the alcohol hand sanitizer makes your hands feel sticky, you're overdoing it.)

    222:

    The trade war really had little effect on consumer confidence and thus isn't comparable - it hurt a bunch of farmers bad, but Trump/GOP bought most of them off with massive subsidies.

    Other business hurt were minor headlines at most (though obviously important to those laid off).

    Covid-19 on the other hand is front page daily news.

    Google has just cancelled the physical part of this year's I/O conference in May (Google's big yearly developer conference), and given Apple and Microsoft also have WWDC and Build in those time-frames there could be more to come.

    Google has also banned all international travel by all employees until further notice, thus hitting conferences elsewhere (no Google people or events at the Go language conference in Europe).

    Other companies have instituted similar policies.

    This is all going to hit the travel and hospitality industries hard, so in weeks to come the local headlines in many places will also be dominated by Covid-19 fallout.

    Hence why the US Fed did a massive 1/2 point emergency rate cut prime rate today, in an attempt to keep the US economy going - and the EU central bank can't do anything similar as the EU prime rate is negative (not that the US rate is far behind at a measly just below 1.25%)

    Trump is so concerned, at least in part because I assume some polling or Fox News coverage is so negative, that he announced today he is donating this quarter's salary to the Covid-19 fight.

    223:

    Re: 'fava beans'

    Maybe take a pass on this if you're of Mediterranean, Southeast Asian, or African descent. Estimate is that about 400 million (1 in 20) folk worldwide lack a crucial enzyme to break this down properly -- very bad result. I'm none of the above but still would not touch this with a 10-ft pole.

    224:

    Re xkcd on eradicating the common cold

    The one I thought of (I'm sure not first) is lice.

    If everyone on Earth shaved all their hair off for a month human lice would be extinct.

    225:

    What I saw had the State Department directive originating in the White House. That doesn't mean the executive directly ordered anything, or even knew about it.

    That the CDC had been overruled got leaked later; the policy is to ignore what the scientists say. (Given the rate of testing in the US, this isn't going to end well.)

    226:

    Might be worth reading up a little more before you dose yourself with more fear. Being heterozygous (female, it's x-linked)) for favism is thought to be a partial defense against malaria. That's why there's this odd combination of favism being common in some places where the beans are commonly eaten.

    Anyway, if you have favism (male or really unlucky female), you're likely to know already, because there are a number of drug interactions that also cause trouble. So unless you're in one of the high frequency populations (Sardinian, Kurdish, pure Ashkenazi), and/or you have a history of things like jaundice and anemia, then it's not worth worrying about.

    227:

    The American Physical Society's conference (11,000 physicists from around the world) was supposed to be this week in Denver. Last Saturday it was abruptly cancelled, 36 hours before the opening. Several hundred of the people registered, many from other parts of the world, had already arrived in Denver when the cancellation notice went out.

    228:

    Five litres per person/day is probably optimistic for California, at least in the middle of summer with no air conditioning. To the point where it's likely not worth stockpiling much drinking water at all: One of those handpumps with a built-in water filter (about £40 or your regional equivalent on Amazon) and a big plastic jerrycan take up less room and don't have an expiry date.

    229:

    I take the view that both is good. Having some sealed water on hand means there's one less thing to get organized about right away either immediately post-disaster or when already ill.

    (I live somewhere that half the year, I have to worry about a filter freezing, and where five litres is not going to be enough the other half. Melting snow for drinking water is this whole different problem.)

    Gravity filters -- fancy siliconized nylon bags where you hang it and let gravity pull water through the filter -- beat the besnackers out of hand pumps for bulk use. Water purification tablets come in 20 litre sizes, same as jerrycans; so do collapsible buckets, if you're the sort of twitches-about-potable-water person who wants to filter into the bucket, toss the purification tablet into the bucket, wait the allotted time, and then and only then fill the jerrycan.

    (I'm sufficiently twitchy that I've got a mechanical stopwatch and thermometers in the bag with the water purification tablets.)

    230:

    Good grief. I just smooshed together a bunch of semi-random nutjobbery memes but it seems I was barely edging into the whackosphere. Oh dear...

    And whitroth - mission failure I’m afraid. The cats got to them. Of course , by “the cats” I mean the local Vancouver Island cougars, the biggest, strongest,fastest variant in the world. But not all is loath the fertilizer will be most welcome!

    231:

    Okay, now I’m craving posole!

    232:

    whitroth @ 206: Stop. Right now. They did not fire everyone in the CDC, or in the NIH. They mostly still know what they're talking about... or did yuo not hear that the Orange Idiot was told no, we're not going to have a vaccine before the election?

    More at: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/anthony-fauci-trump-coronavirus-crisis-118961

    I think they're confusing a White House advisory board or committee or something(?) Obama set up in 2014 during the Ebola crisis. He had a whole bunch of public health experts & epidemiologists & doctors & such to help him figure out sound policy for dealing with that threat after several aid workers had contracted the disease & had to be evacuated.

    Trump fired all of them, but that was right after he took office before anyone ever heard of coronavirus or CoVid-19.

    The CDC they just ignore.

    233:

    Heteromeles @ 214: Pfui. Maize porridge, or polenta, is what happens when white people don't bother to ask brown people how to cook something before taking it as a crop. If you want to get the proper nutrients out of maize, you need to nixtamalize it, at least with wood ashes, to make hominy, grits, or masa to make tortillas. That's the proper way to eat corn. Keeps you from getting pellagra.

    No corn likker?

    234:

    Texas has a safety inspection: horn, lights, seatbelts. They weren't checking anything else when I lived there.

    California checks emission equipment every two years - my Prius is due this year, and yes, they do check - as a requirement for registration. (The notice for mine should show up this month, though it's not due till late May. Requires driving 80 miles in the previous four or five days, to get good readings.)

    235:

    Do you need a minimal time on the gas engine to get valid readings?

    How do they force emissions in a test bay?

    Never thought about this before.

    236:

    Ah, cornmeal mush. That's what I grew up hearing it called. (I probably met it at least once at my grandparents' house; Granny would have learned how to make it growing up in Kansas, but she preferred packing it in a bread pan to cool, then cutting it in slices and frying it (served with ham or bacon, maybe eggs, and fruit). It was a common dish in her father's generation.

    237:

    He fired that lot and defunded them in 2018. (He really thinks that health emergencies can be handled by "just in time" staffing. But he wasn't competent as a business manager, either.)

    238:

    The issue is he thinks everything is like a construction project. On those you hire plumbers and electricians as you need them. Of course there is a big pool of experienced plumbers and electricians all over working in their field all the time.

    Pandemic experts, not so much. If you want them ready you have to pay them to work in their field even when they are "not" needed. Trump can't fathom such a thing. Or doesn't care as he figures it does nothing to impact his image media campaign. Assuming nothing big goes wrong in the 4 years.

    239:

    I've been toying with memes about reducing face touching behaviour[1] by using hand scents and a working nose as a proximity alarm, and this variant is a little over the top most places, but not for there: Floral scent mimics of rotting flesh, such as Smilax herbacea (Smooth Carrion Flower)[3], might work really well as nail-polish scents[2] for discouraging face-touching. (Smilax herbacea is not in season yet though, sadly, so I can't make a trial batch. But similar scents or scent recipes might be in commercial scent libraries.) Could be marketed as "a preview of the scent of one's own corpse" if the face is touched. :-) Any suggested variants?

    [2] There is a report of a good candidate for a perfect behavior-modification nail polish that smells like "death and evil’s baby", but they may have just gotten lucky with a bad batch. [1] Another link: Coronavirus: 5 tips on how to avoid touching your face (Anne Wallace, Mar 3, 2020) [3] I nearly vomited when smelling one of these flowers for the first time.

    240:

    Just tried it - it seems to work in Ireland.

    241:

    How bad - fatal?

    242:

    it increases "productivity" couldn't be pried out of their little private offices

    There are worse things. My boss doesn't have a private office in our new building, he's out with the peons. So we get the full benefit of his hands-free calls and his habit of leaving his phone on his desk. It's definitely not as bad as it could be, but it adds another layer to the open plan office. We also have a LOUD HOWARD type.

    I just can't wait until we employ more staff and actually fill up the space have (right now I have three spare desks out of 8 near me, and an open "pod" that is supposedly a meeting area but has been filled with unwanted desks. Worst case there could be 10-12 people within 5m of me. My productivity might not change, though, because right now someone has gone on holiday leaving test systems I rely on in an unusable state. I could fix them, if I had access... but I need holiday-person to set that up.

    243:

    turn authoritarian. ... Australia is not immune

    It's important to remember that we already have the authoritarian legislation in operation, it's just not widely applied.

    For example they can put anyone they like in an "immigration detention centre" and hold them there until that person is able to prove to the satisfaction of the authorities that they are born in Australia, have Australian citizenship and neither hold nor are eligible for any other citizenship. Only once that is done are they required to release the person.

    Now I'm not saying that they will definitely use that exact system to put infected people in camps, merely that "have been exposed to a foreign disease" could easily become grounds for doing so.

    There are a raft of similar bits of "get in the van" law that could be used instead or as well...

    244:

    The vaccine contained replicating, DIGITIZED (controllable) RNA which were activated by 60Ghz mm 5G waves that

    Interestingly, that random conspiracy theory resembles a fairly common variant of paranoid schizophrenia in which the patient suffers from the conviction that they're not in control of their own body -- that they're a robot, or controlled by implants, being operated remotely by a computer/aliens/god/some hostile entity. See also the late Francis E. Dec's gangster computer god rant from the 1960s/1970s: this is just updated with chemtrails and 5G.

    245:

    That reminds me: another curse of the modern workplace to add on top of open-plan is hot-desking.

    Imagine the happy hunting ground this creates for a viral pandemic when half the cleaning staff are too sick to work so the desks aren't getting wiped down every night!

    246:

    Unlikely unless you are looking over an entire lifetime. Even then not everyone has had vanilla flu, much less Spanish flu even in the early C20th.

    There is nearly always a cohort that has some natural immunity.

    Will it join vanillia flu as a ever circling pandemic - not sure right now but probably.

    Half expect it to the new normal. Instead of checking for explosive water I suspect there'll be temperature sensors at all global travel hubs, moreso even than now.

    247:

    Barry @ 143 You do not have a health system

    Bill Arnold @ 154 What the propnents of the open-slave marketplan office forget is the NOISE level. Which can be amazingly distracting & anti-productive, the thing they are supposedly in favour of! What happened to the idea of the 1980's onwards, the "cubicle farm, where everyone was in a big space, but there were (sound-absorbing) screens at least half-way round each desk ???

    Bellinghman & Charlie - Poppy Seeds Been a problem here, too ... Railway workers are regularly tested for drugs ... people have been suspended on opiate testing, because of poppy-seed breads. I THINK they are now wise to this one. The problem is that the "test" can't distinguish between the seeds & actual opiate drugs.

    Charles H @ 180 This is a "wet" virus - boiling will kill it.

    Bill Arnold @ 239 No really you need Phallus impudicus scent for that - I actually saw one last autumn, but didn't have my new phone, or I would have taken a picture. Boy do they pong!

    Face-touching If this goes on ( Yes, I know, R.A.H. story ) I might start carrying a small bag of cotton wipes & a v. small bottle of "face cleanser" with me + the usual extra hand-washing.

    Food reserves Mine are in the big freezer & ... down on the allotment, growing. I usually have enough flour in stock to make bread for a month or more ....

    AND - almost lastly Charlie @ 161 ... Yes how infection is Corvid-19 going to be/is? [ That's a deliberate typo - a reference to the cleaner-up of battlefields ] Vital question, to which we do not seem, at present, to have an answer. How easily is it spread around & how many peole actually "get" it & possibly even more important, how many people are silent carriers ( "Typhoid Mary" ) ??? [ I see that Heteromeles @ 165 has partly covered this, & the scary link to SARS as well ]

    Dirk B @ 187 FUCK RIGHT OFF I suspect queenie will be OK, it's Phil (the Greek) who is more likely at risk And no, it would be William V, who as an ex Search-&-Rescue Pilot has his head firmly screwed on.

    248:

    161: The estimates I've seen indicate the overall mortality rate is likely somewhere around 3% or so.

    WHO estimates 0.9%.

    That is a big difference.

    Many places it is the difference between enough hospital beds and a health crisis that overwhelms the hospital system.

    And also a reminder that science is hard. We take it for granted, but basic empirical work is actually really hard. Coronavirus must be the most studied thing on the planet right now, and yet we still do not know how likely you are to die of it.

    250:

    Your political correctness has rotted your once-fine mind! I grew up in central Africa, and that's what most of us ate, whether we were black, white or khaki. You may be right that wood ash helps, though it can't help much - however, my point wasn't its poor nutrition, but its taste. I was brought up on it, as were some of you lot, and can eat it as plain porridge without gagging, but most Brits can't. And I stand by my point that plain oatmeal porridge is FAR more palatable in the long term than that stuff!

    I grow four varieties of beans for drying, and we buy in more (and other pulses). Yes, for nutritious and tasty staples, pulses beat even oats (by FAR the best of the grass grains) into a cocked hat.

    251:

    And wore no close-fitting clothes :-) The difference between head and body lice is interesting.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_louse

    252:

    One thing the British government could do would be to (temporarily) permit the open sale without tax to the public of 80% ethyl alcohol as a general-purpose disinfectant and hand wash. At the moment the only cheap alternative is "methylated spirits", methyl alcohol sold with taste and colour additives to try and make it unpalatable to those unwise enough to consider drinking it.

    253:

    To be fair, the African use of maize to replace sorghum in ugali (and its many other names - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ugali for a full list) is because white people took maize from the Americas without asking the locals how to use it, and introduced it to Africa where it grew better than sorghum had.

    It is very much a case of the white man getting it wrong, even if Africans have embraced maize as a staple crop.

    254:

    That is a supposition but, as far as I know, it is poorly supported by evidence. The following is my understanding of the actual evidence we have.

    We believe that the Spanish and/or Portuguese introduced it to the Old World - but whether that was done 'officially' or by individuals (who could perfectly well have been 'non-white') is unclear. Furthermore, it is doubtful that it was introduced as a grain (as distinct from eating ast roasted green corn, or animal fodder), so it could perfectly well be black people adopting it and not asking white people how to use it! We simply don't know. Furthermore, I lived in the savanna of sub-Saharan Africa, and nobody has a clue exactly how it got there from the coasts, or exactly who failed to communicate with who.

    I haven't read this, but the citation is fairly informative:

    https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-african-history/article/introduction-and-spread-of-maize-in-africa/472E970A12F35FD3C2A30EF0B63B2864

    255:

    Well this is going to spread. We just got our first case in Raleigh, NC. From someone who visited one of the outbreak nursing homes in Washington state. There is no way to get from there to here without a long single flight or 2 or 3 multi hour flights.

    So interacting in two medium to large airports plus in a plane or planes for 5 to 10 hours.

    Oy Vey.

    And I'm hearing rumblings that flights back and forth across the pond to northern Europe are being cut back due to lack of demand.

    256:

    Meanwhile in the barbarous Americas, completely predictably, Republicans in Congress are blocking an emergency funding bill on the grounds that it limits drug company profiteering off of the health crisis. Fighting the spread of corona virus and keeping Americans alive would be nice but the important thing is that it's profitable enough for corporations. As of Tuesday $7.5 billion in emergency funds was hung up because Republicans couldn't live with the anti-price-gouging clause in the legislation.

    257:

    Come on Greg - where's your sense of adventure? Think of it as a game of Russian Roulette, with extra bullets in the chamber for the over-60s. Of course, the real odds are a lot better. So, in the words of Filthy Harold, are you feeling lucky? Well, are you, punk? As for panic buying, I sent the kids out to do some today. Not quite sure why, though, but it seems fashionable. If its anything like flu I won't be eating for a week or two. If I don't get it, it's business as normal. OTOH, if its infrastructure collapse everyone is worried about and no supermarkets open, I will just have to go out looting Mad Max style.

    258:

    I'm with Elderly Cynic on the edibility of oatmeal porridge versus the abominations known as "grits" or "hominy". (Tried each of them once: never again. Porridge, however, I can eat daily.)

    Polenta ... I like polenta, although its lack of nutritional completeness is noted.

    259:

    I know nobody who can tolerate it (as porridge or similar) who wasn't brought up on it! That is apparently true of some other staples, too.

    260:

    Welp, I'm just back from my 6-monthly hospital check-up (I'm a frequent flyer with a cardiology professor), and $PROF decided I need a 24 hour ambulatory blood-pressure check (aka sleep deprivation torture) and another appointment in about six weeks. Yes, I'm likelier to die of a stroke due to creeping hypertension than of J. Random Virus that hadn't shown up in this city (yet), but still: imagine my joy at being summoned back to one of the two main teaching hospitals for a city with a roughly one million catchment area right in the middle of a likely epidemic.

    (I will note that there are warning notices and well-filled bottles of disinfectant and hand sanitizer absolutely everywhere, though, and all the staff I spoke to were aware of/worried about COVID-19. So at least they're not in denial.)

    261:

    Meths isn't methanol, it's ethanol with a bit of methanol in it to make sure it poisons you if you try to drink it. Same principle as selling codeine mixed with paracetamol to make sure you die horribly if you try to get off on it. (Not that this stops the mixture being addictive.) The purple dye is just an optional extra (you can get meths without it, which is a better cleaning agent as it leaves no residue) to make sure you don't forget the government would rather you went blind than got drunk without paying tax on it.

    Meths would do the job fine, and be a lot more pleasant than that horrible sludgy stuff. So would isopropanol or acetone, both of which are available cheaply in gallon lots.

    262:

    I love to tell the story of how a Brit and I once had a, only mildly in jest, argument about the best way to get rid of the royals. He wanted to take them down to the basement and shoot them. I strongly think this is a waste of bullets, and why bother doing it in the basement? Hang them (you can re-use the rope) and do it in the open where everyone can see.

    Some people seem to think I'm joking when I suggest it as a solution to the Republic problem.

    I then point to France where it turns out that actually, getting rid of the royal family has done wonders for their tourist trade. The English can keep their men in funny hats outside the palace, and people would actually be able to go in and gawk at the stupidly luxurious rooms that the royals used to use... (Also, think of the benefits to the coffers when the government gets to confiscate all that personally owned by Liz land.)

    263:

    Meths would do the job fine

    My thinking is that making something like this cheap (sold from pharmacies, perhaps) or even free means it would be better to make it from ethanol than meths because some people would drink it anyway. Having significant numbers of idiots turning up at A&E blind and turning yellow from a crashed liver at the same time a lean and efficient and not-wasteful-at-all NHS ecosystem is trying to cope with a lot of COVID-19 sufferers is less than optimal.

    Using acetone and such on food prep surfaces is not recommended, alcohol is only a problem for Temperance blue-ribboners.

    264:

    Re: 'How bad ...'

    Favism can be fatal to some people principally groups that Heteromeles mentioned ... 'Sardinian, Kurdish, pure Ashkenazi, and/or you have a history of things like jaundice and anemia'.

    Worked at a smallish outfit (about 90 people) and we had a map of the world with pushpins to mark where folks were born: over 50 countries from across the 6 habitable continents. We were planning a company lunch and wanted some idea as to what foods to order. Ended up doing a potluck which went over so well it became an annual event. This was a very informal outfit: people actually talked to each other including about things like ethnic foods, sensitivities. Basically, what I once considered rare/exotic ('foreign') therefore could ignore became something that I needed to be mindful of. Shared home-cooked meals was the door-opener.

    265:

    "Same principle as selling codeine mixed with paracetamol to make sure you die horribly if you try to get off on it." A tip for all you would-be junkies. In cold water (20degC) codeine is about 100x more soluble than paracetamol. And if you want to keep the solution rather than just gulp it down, buffer it with citric acid. Sadly my hospital adventure where I disposed of 400ml of oral morphine in 4 weeks (mostly out of boredom), sort of ruined codeine for me. It put me off opiates for fun.

    266:

    Yes, the legislation is already there. Two nasty pieces of legislation passed in the last five years (with the support of the craven Labor party) are the 'Telecommunications (Interception and Access ) Amendment (Data Retention) Act 2015' and the 'Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Act 2018'. The first includes warrants which prevent you from either confirming or denying that you have been served a warrant of the particular type (preventing warrant canaries, a big thing in the USA because they get "Freedom ofs peach" [sic]). The second means that the government can force companies to put backdoors into software to make it easier for the government to spy on people they don't like. Sorry, I mean for legitimate law enforcement agencies to monitor criminal activities... Nothing like what happened in the UK where local councils where misusing (by which I mean, using as intended, to cower the general population) the anti-terrorism legislation a few years ago to make sure that kids were going to the correct school...

    And while the Greens are the only major party [sic] that actually stand up against this bullshit, that doesn't actually mean that they aren't still a party of the right. They just happened to be on the liberal right, instead of the illiberal right. They have shifted to the right along with the Labor Party.

    267:

    (Re: The Greens - not that I think that any of the rest of them are any better.)

    268:

    Thanks!

    If you're game, here's another dumb question:

    Based on what I've seen/read in the media, my understanding is that this virus attaches itself/burrows through the body's cell wall(s). So - if avoiding this virus is unlikely, what can you do to strengthen whatever cell walls are at greatest risk? (Or, make those cell walls less attractive to that virus?)

    269:

    I like the optimism that all the desks are getting wiped down every night on a regular basis.

    Given that cleaning was long ago sub-contracted out to low wage, I really can't live on this by have no choice, workers it is doubtful many of them are taking pride in their work.

    270:

    No names, no pack drill, but I know of at least two cleaning contractors who actually instruct staff to not clean desk tops unless they're clear.

    271:

    "what can you do to strengthen whatever cell walls are at greatest risk?"

    There's nothing of that sort anyone can do.

    The "horns" of the Virus looks like a particular protein, another particular protein on the surface of some of your cells react to that, and do what they are supposed to do when they get in contact.

    This is also why all talks about vaccines is at best highly speculative, because the vaccine would have to work in a way which recognizes that the "fake" binding site of the virus is lacking the rest of "the regular customer".

    The things you can do, or rather could have done, are the things we all ignore at our peril: Don't smoke, get lots of exercise, live on a sound and varied diet, dont inhale a lot of air polution etc.

    272:

    Micheal Another usual total idiot .... The Monarch, personally, actually owns very little land Most of the "Crown Estates" are really government owned Liz OWNS: Sandringham & Balmoral - the rest are offical governement offices - if Ghu/Cthulu preserve us, we were a "repubublic" Buck Ho would be the president's official residence & Wiindsor his/her weekend place. STill have to be paid for, sam as the Elysee in Paris, yes? Windsor is the odd one out - it's half-&-half &/or owned by a "trust" like organisation, IIRC.

    273:

    Eh, I'm not actually British, and I don't actually care about the details of ownership of various bits of stuff there. But Wikipedia sayz: "The Sunday Times Rich List 2017 estimated [Liz's] personal wealth at £360 million, making her the 329th richest person in the UK.", which even if it isn't all land, still isn't something to be sneezed at. Not to mention the various other royals would have their own personal estates. I'm sure they could be convinced that handing it* over to the 'public', and abdicating from all rights and responsibilities of royalty would be a fine thing for all concerned. (Especially if the alternative is "Humane".)

    • Apart from say a million pounds, which while it wouldn't allow them to be kept in the fashion to which they may have become accustomed to, is still pretty good.

    Have you no objection to inherited power (even if it's only hypothetical power) and the obscene wealth that is accumulated? Because personally I found inherited power quite objectionable. The fact that the royals are only hypothetically politically powerful doesn't make me like them any. The wealth is also something that just doesn't sit right. But you know, I'm old fashioned -- I like inheritance taxes. Bring in 100% inheritance tax over a set amount, say a million pounds...

    274:

    A quick Wikipedia says that, through his title of "Duke of Cornwall" Speaker to Plants owns some 550km^2 of Englandshire.

    275:

    Micheal her the 329th richest person in the UK. So why are you going after her, before the other 328 ??????

    Incidentally, my falling-down ( London Clay shifts ) house is probably worth about a million, which is bonkers, but there you go - now you can join Dirk. Start picking on, oh, the Bushes? Instead?

    Pigeon OTOH "Duchy Originals" - the sold farm products from those estates are very good, quite sharply-priced products, worth eating - or those I've sampled, anyway.

    276:

    "strengthening cell walls" -- we're animals; we haven't got cell walls. (Plants have cell walls.) As was otherwise noted, strengthening cell membranes is hard to define and beyond current art.

    What's coming out of the autopsies in Wuhan is that the mechanism of lethality is "irreversible fibrosis" in the lungs; if I unravelled the med-speak correctly, if you develop a severe case of COVID-19, your lungs produce enough mucus from the infection that you hydraulically damage/rupture your alveoli at which point there's no further oxygen transport going on there.

    This would explain the observed utility of vacuuming the mucus out of people's lungs as part of ICU treatment; it would also explain why catching two strains at once looks like it makes the prognosis so much worse. But it's a single-digit number of autopsies so I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

    What I would put weight on is what's always true of coronaviruses; wash your hands, if you do get sick take it seriously and rest, get more fluids than you think you need, supplement at least C, D, and zinc.

    277:

    Meanwhile: 8% of Iranian parliamentarians test positive for Covid-19.

    Could there be a political revolution in Iran if the elderly hardliners start dropping like flies?

    278:

    There's the anti-Churchill view though: "Inherited power is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried". Democracy is a fine principle, and I do strongly believe in it. But I'm also well aware that democracy has given us Jim Crow, Prohibition, Nazis, McCarthy, Vietnam, Watergate, the Troubles parts 1 and 2, the Poll Tax in the UK, Section 28 in the UK, and of course most recently Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Brexit. And conversely, democracy has also given us inaction in the face of mass murder in Argentina, Chile, El Salvador, Bosnia, Kosovo, Georgia and Syria. YMMV on Trump, Johnson and Brexit of course, but the others are undeniably wrong.

    The problem with democracy is that no democratic government can afford to think long-term. The only way to get planning on the scale of years is to have people involved who can guarantee to still be around years later. YMMV on how you make that happen, but the House of Lords was a pretty good check on the more barmy excesses of the Commons. It frankly scares me to hear the kind of language that comes out of the Commons when the Lords apply the kind of scrutiny on loopholes and kneejerk responses which is what they're intended to do.

    279:

    If you have a house that valuable why not sell it and live somewhere nice?

    280:

    Maybe he likes living in a relatively cheap part of London? (There are streets where the average house price is north of £50M.)

    Similarly: I could sell my central Edinburgh tenement flat and buy an entire castle in the border country ... if I felt like paying castle-sized heating and roof repair bills, and having a two hour drive if I felt like shopping in (either of) the big cities.

    281:

    Oh, wow, donating his couch change to help? All $110k of it? But I thoght he was already donating all of it to something or other....

    282:

    When we lived there, it was like PA's - pull and check one front and one back wheel brake (alternate each inspection), look for rust, check headlight alignment (and if the other lights worked), horn, wipers.

    283:

    Sorry, "wiping down the desks every night"?

    What do they do with people with stuff piled on their desks?

    We used to have them in once a week to clean our cubes and offices at the NIH.

    By the way, this whole thing gave me the impetus, and a mechanism, for my current story I'm working on, where, in my 11000 yr timeline, we have the disruption that leads to the Terran Confederation.

    The mechanism? People who are dying of advanced, or genengineered diseases, going after trillionairs (this is set 75-80 years from now)....

    284:

    Time for my std. Yankee response to a Southerner's question as to whether I want grits for breakfast: "I don't know if I'll like it, so I'll just take one grit, please."

    285:

    If I hadn't found someone, now that I'm retired, I'd be thinking about it, too.

    But, as I keep saying, when my order of tumbrels, which is three year back-ordered, shows, let's just build, on the Mall, the "human invention" of M'sieur Guillotine.

    286:

    [g] When I worked for Ameritech in the mid-nineties, walking through the break room at lunch time was dreadful - my nose wanted to grab me and drag me to half the tables and eat with them. We had folks from all over the world.

    Was extremely pleased when several Muslims invited me to eat with them as they broke their fast during Ramadan.

    Had a lot of friends there.

    287:

    Democracy wasn't inactive in the mass murders in Chile and El Salvador - we paid for it to happen (and what the FUCK is Kissinger still doing alive?)

    288:

    Hominy comes in several forms. I like a couple of them, and don't like the finely ground stuff. The kind I like is whole kernels with the husk removed..hot and with butter.

    OTOH, it's not very nutritious. And, as a diabetic 2, I no longer even consider eating it. But I prefer the yellow hominy over the white. The ground hominy, i.e. hominy grits, isn't nearly as desirable, though proper spicing can make it tolerable, as it has essentially no flavor.

    289:

    What do they do with people with stuff piled on their desks?

    You've heard about "clean desk" policies, right?

    For maximum misery, if you're an evil boss running a hot-desking system, there are fewer desks than staff. (Late to work? No desk for you! You can wander the floor waiting for an unwary co-worker to take a bathroom break, or try and colonize a conference table between meetings.)

    Each staff member gets a locker. They can put their stuff in a locker whenever they go home. (Makes it easier to downsize them, too: when they turn up to work, you present them with their locker contents and the appropriate form, The End.) Anything left on a desk overnight gets chucked in the trash -- notepads, pens, potted plants, personal photographs, even laptops: it's their fault if they lost it. (Oh yeah: this policy plays best with a staff uniform and a bring-your-own-device policy so that if they lose their laptop it's their personal machine wot you sold on eBay chucked in the trash.)

    For added lulz: disabled folks who need special chairs are allowed to take them home at night in their car but have to bring them back the next day. Also, it's 100% open plan including the conference tables (which are standing only, because we're running Agile, y'all), and there's a strict no-mobile-phones policy for anyone below management grade (except for sales/marketing).

    This isn't quite as grim as what I'm working on for the sequel to "Dead Lies Dreaming" (hint: zentai suits, shock belts, and ball gags for the no-vocalizations-needed workers) but it's what I gather they're rolling out at DEFRA. (Oh, but they have colour-coordinated staff kitchens with bring-your-own-appliances (as long as they're chromed: non-chromed toasters/kettles/etc get the trash treatment). Or maybe the civil servant who told me this was pulling my leg? It's hard to tell these days.)

    290:

    re. Palatability: "Hunger is the best sauce." If you don't have the foods you like, most of us are willing to hold our collective nose and eat pretty much anything that will keep body and soul together. Which I understand, intellectually and emotionally, and had confirmed by a friend's father, who survived something like half a year of siege during the second world war. (Don't recall where, other than that it was somewhere in the Mediterranean. Not to mention stories from concentration camp survivors.)

    In terms of my recommendations for setting aside food, diversity is a good starting point. It avoids the whole "didn't we just have that yesterday?" thing.

    The choice of storing enough food for 2 weeks or longer is based primarily on the desire to reduce the frequency of having to go mingle with scores of other potentially infectious people at the supermarket and pharmacy. A secondary goal is that if the virus takes off and starts knocking down the people responsible for keeping the food supply coming, a good storeroom gives you survivability while you wait for the government to bring in the army and get supplies moving again. Hopefully we won't go there, but it's not beyond the realm of plausibility.

    291:

    Incidentally, my falling-down ( London Clay shifts ) house is probably worth about a million

    That happens. A friend bought a nice-enough but not extravagant 1570 ft^2 house in San Jose thirty years ago for a little under $160k. According to Redfin, it's worth more than that now, in the megabuck range.

    292:

    Remembered it finally: the siege of Malta. More than a year, depending on how you date the start and end.

    293:

    There is always a limit, not least because a lot of people simply cannot swallow certain foods - i.e. they gag as soon as those go in their mouth.

    294:

    In terms of my recommendations for setting aside food, diversity is a good starting point. It avoids the whole "didn't we just have that yesterday?" thing.

    Not to be too obvious, but a thoughtful selection of spices/condiments can help with the diversity thing. You can fix beans in a lot of different ways, even if the underlying beans remain the same. And soy-based TVP is also quite versatile and nutritious.

    295:

    "Because personally I found inherited power quite objectionable."

    It is not rational to declare that a given holding of power is inherently and unalterably bad for no reason other than the convention used to decide who gets it, regardless of the nature of the power or the quality of the holder.

    If the nature of the power is purely ceremonial and doesn't actually allow you to compel anything, then there's no substance to support any serious objection: it doesn't matter anyway.

    If the power is real, then what matters is whether or not the person holding it is a wanker, not how they got it. Neither inheritance nor democracy guarantee the result one way or the other. Democracy as a selection method seems to pick wankers very roughly half the time. Inheritance seems to perform with equal mediocrity - indeed the history of the monarchy of England shows a fairly consistent wanker/not wanker alternation by generation, although YMMV as to the phase of it. The point about democracy is not that it's a more successful method of wanker avoidance but that it gives a reasonably dependable and frequent non-violent turnover, so people hopefully don't have time to get too unhappy no matter which way they think the phase is.

    The success rate of any method depends more on the circumstances around its use than on what it actually is. Democracy usually operates by way of repeated competitive selection, which like any competitive process produces a selection pool with a higher and higher proportion of wankers the further you progress. If candidates were selected at random from the entire population and only ever got one shot at it, it might perform a bit better. Inheritance produces rather different results depending on whether the main premature termination condition is "getting stabbed because you've failed to display enough wankerism to stop people stabbing you" or "getting your head chopped off because people are fed up with you being a wanker".

    296:

    The WHO have released a report of their investigations in China. It's very scary indeed.

    Pdf is here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

    Reddit thread is here:

    https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/

    5% of those infected need artificial respiration. 15% need high concentration oxygen.

    For severe cases, from infection to recover is 3-6 weeks.

    Western health services are unlikely to cope. The fatality rate is going to be a lot higher than China.

    297:

    "In terms of my recommendations for setting aside food, diversity is a good starting point. It avoids the whole "didn't we just have that yesterday?" thing."

    Ha. I consider "what to eat today?" to be the question requiring an undue expenditure of mental effort. Consequently the answer to your question is only ever "no" if the shop has run out of stock, which is the occasion for much swearing as I hunt for whatever's most nearly the same for the least extra money.

    298:

    Random thought: Perhaps this has actually been around for a lot longer than we've noticed, and loads of people have already had it but without any distinctively severe symptoms. Perhaps the panic version is just a random nasty mutation of something everyone's just dismissed as "some fluey bug thing" until now.

    299:

    For severe cases, from infection to recover is 3-6 weeks.

    Yes, I've been watching the recovered numbers, and they're not going up very fast. How do they compare with past flu recovery times?

    300:

    Precisely. The rabid anti-monarchists (and, as far as the UK goes, they almost all are at least delusional) are keen on confiscating millions from royalty, but are quite happy for our 'democratically elected' rulers to pass billions of public resources onto their corporate cronies. I find that FAR more objectionable.

    They also completely ignore the fact that the Great Reform Bill passed only because King William IV helped to force it through and that, during the dark days of Thatcher, it was the hereditary peers who stood up for the people's liberties and rights. It is extremely likely that, if our monarchy still had the same power as King William IV, some of the evils of the past 20 years would have been at least ameliorated.

    301:

    5% of those infected need artificial respiration. 15% need high concentration oxygen.

    To add to the lulz, the death rate among folks with elevated blood sugar or hypertension is in the 8-12% range. Guess what I've got both of?

    Now, I'm on treatment for those conditions. And as type II diabetes and hypertension get likelier with age, it's possible that the elevated mortality with those conditions reflects the age of the patients, and younger hypertensive diabetics are at somewhat lower risk. But if not, my personal risk factor is equivalent to a 70-79 year old.

    302:

    Flu recovery is typically 1-2 weeks, however post-viral syndrome (aka chronic fatigue syndrome) can last years to decades. (It's not psychosomatic, although that appears to still be the dominant medical wisdom in the USA; in the UK they found immune system changes in sufferers that suggest yes, it's a real thing.)

    303:

    Could there be a political revolution in Iran if the elderly hardliners start dropping like flies?

    In many ways these hard liners are a front for the IRG. The IRG is somewhat like the SS in Germany back in the day. It has businesses, a somewhat separate military, and enforces the mandates of the leadership. Although it may be murky as to who is leading who.

    But you have to remember that you can't even be on the ballot for the Iranian Parliament unless approved by the IRG and the mullahs.

    304:

    ... You forgot that during the dark days of Thatcher, it was the backwoods peers who she bussed in to vote in the HoL who pushed the Poll Tax through. (Which eventually killed her career, and caused the biggest tax rebellion in British history since the time of the Black Death.)

    305:

    Bad as the health services are, the kicker's the spread rate. The PRC got that down by tracking down every single point of contact for every known case and testing them. They had ten thousand people doing nothing but; they've got test kit production up to approximately necessary levels; they now have mandatory testing of everyone reporting a fever.

    It's not obvious how many other places have the political mechanisms to do this. (Or will use them effectively where such mechanisms exist.)

    Anybody with a respirator factory needed to start round-the-clock shifts two months ago.

    306:

    Well, crap: The neuroinvasive potential of SARS-CoV2 may be at least partially responsible for the respiratory failure of COVID-19 patients:

    Following the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), another highly pathogenic coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 (previously known as 2019-nCoV) emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and rapidly spreads around the world. This virus shares highly homological sequence with SARS-CoV, and causes acute, highly lethal pneumonia (COVID-19) with clinical symptoms similar to those reported for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The most characteristic symptom of COVID-19 patients is respiratory distress, and most of the patients admitted to the intensive care could not breathe spontaneously. Additionally, some COVID-19 patients also showed neurologic signs such as headache, nausea and vomiting. Increasing evidence shows that coronavriruses are not always confined to the respiratory tract and that they may also invade the central nervous system inducing neurological diseases. The infection of SARS-CoV has been reported in the brains from both patients and experimental animals, where the brainstem was heavily infected. Furthermore, some coronaviruses have been demonstrated able to spread via a synapse-connected route to the medullary cardiorespiratory center from the mechano- and chemoreceptors in the lung and lower respiratory airways. In light of the high similarity between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV2, it is quite likely that the potential invasion of SARS-CoV2 is partially responsible for the acute respiratory failure of COVID-19 patients. Awareness of this will have important guiding significance for the prevention and treatment of the SARS-CoV-2-induced respiratory failure.

    Source: J Med Virol. 2020 Feb 27. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25728.

    307:

    I suspect you've actually got it backwards. Remember, Covid-19 appears to basically be SARS 2.0. Reportedly it's as close to the original SARS virus as the H3N2 influenza viruses are to each other.

    Apparently, SARS was a case where the SARS virus jumped from a horseshoe bat to a civet and from there to humans. While it's possible the first jump happened in the wild and then the civet was captured, it's equally, maybe more likely that there was a bat cage above a civet cage in one of those wet markets, the bat excreted on the civet, the civet licked itself clean, then got prepared and eaten by a human. During the prep, the virus got passed, although I suppose a civet sneeze or civet excretions transferred the virus to whoever was caring for the civet. Once SARS 1.0 got to human hosts, it was fairly deadly (9.6% fatality rate) but didn't spread well (around 8100 cases known) and the outbreak passed, leaving people to think that SARS was gone.

    Apparently SARS is still in the horseshoe bats. In new SARS 2.0 spillover it appears, based on limited evidence, that the bats infected pangolins, and possibly humans got it from the pangolins (although they could have got it directly from the bats). SARS 2.0 is less lethal but much better at infecting humans.

    The obvious way to cut the SARS transmission chain is to get Chinese people to stop having anything to do with horseshoe bats and to test any other wildlife they're going to eat. I understand poaching of all these is highly favored for these species, perhaps also in the cooking sense? Anyway, cleaning up the wet markets in China to stop the spillover of zoonoses into pandemics is probably about as easy as stopping the small-arms trade inside the US, which is every bit as lethal and every bit as much a culture-bound psychological issue* as Chinese eating infected wild animals is.

    *When your kids are far more likely to get killed by the guns in your house than any intruder or attacker is, sanity suggests that other options for home defense may be better. But, yo Second Amendment, trust the corporate suits over the government suits, and so forth. 'Murica.

    308:

    China:

    • Built two 2000 bed hospitals in just over a week.

    • Manufacturing 1.5 million COVID-19 test kits from cold in under 12 weeks.

    • Has a panopticon surveillance state up and running and can track people down.

    • Is able and willing to lock down cities of 20 million people under full curfew.

    This doesn't sound like anything the west has been able to do since approximately 1970 -- was feasible under world war conditions, the machinery has subsequently been dismantled.

    309:

    As a point of reference, I went to buy some rubbing alcohol yesterday to top up our lab supplies (running low after doing the strawberry DNA extraction lab). None left in the shops, no idea when more might arrive.

    This is Toronto, where a lot of rumours are floating around in the non-English press*.

    So wiping down surfaces at school is probably a good idea (caretaking doesn't do it more than once or twice a year, so I have to clean my own classrooms). Any suggestions as to what to use? Would bleach work, and if so what concentration?

    *During SARS, the Chinese-language newspapers routinely published provably-false rumours as truth, repeatedly. It's worse now with WeChat.

    310:

    IIRC, we used to use 1:10 bleach:water to wipe down the lab benches. This was about 20 years ago now...

    It's what I used to clean up FedEx at Stanstead when one of our shipments leaked and they started bending our ears about it. Mind you, I went back at them 'you are providing Hep B vaccinations for all your workers, aren't you?'

    311:

    Talking about social change, 15% fatality among the elderly will seriously change the Tories' slice of voting populace.

    312:

    OK. Airline news. From public sources.

    United cancelling 10% of flights in US. 20% internationally. For April and maybe May.

    Lufthansa grounding 20% of their fleet.

    Both actions due to dropping demand.

    While you may not have much sympathy for the flight crews not working, there are a LOT of lower paid people who will go without pay as these cuts ripple through the system. Those cleaning crews that swarm the plane after everyone is off don't make $100K with a pension.

    313:

    Container shipping is taking a huge hit, too -- ships from China to the EU returning to China empty due to slackening demand for imports because industry has basically stopped. (The drop in atmospheric pollution in China is visible from orbit.)

    Combined with shaky economies globally -- we're close to a re-run of 2008 -- and yes, it looks like there's going to be an economic crisis this year (calling it a recession is low-balling it).

    314:

    Re: '... doesn't sound like anything the west'

    Maybe the Scandinavian countries, Germany and Switzerland?

    315:

    Yup.

    Which means the rate of spread is greenfield, once it gets loose.

    327 * 0.75 * 0.05 = 12.26 66 * 0.75 * 0.05 = 2.48 39 * 0.75 * 0.05 = 1.46

    (Five percent of patients require respirators. Ten percent of patients require high-concentration oxygen for time frames measured in weeks, and we probably can't do that, either; that'd triple those numbers.)

    Probably loose in the States. No way Canada is going to close the borders soon enough if it's loose in the States. Test capacity not obviously ramping fast enough, but then again that information isn't public.

    316:

    In China everyone is supposed to carry something like an internal passport. If the police stop you in a major city and you don't have it on you they take a picture of you, go to a nearby "call box" and find you with facial recognition.

    Plus the number of internal police per "citizen" is way higher than anywhere in the "west".

    Also governors (or equivalents) telling construction sites to pack up and move "over here and build this" just can't happen under most western governments short of major legislation.

    So implementing such things as Charlie mentioned is no where near as easy as in China.

    317:

    Consider coming round the other way: Edinburgh to Chicago nonstop on United, then nonstop from there to Auckland on Air New Zealand.

    318:

    If those flight exist. See my earlier comment.

    319:

    Would bleach work?

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/home/cleaning-disinfection.html EXCERPT For disinfection, diluted household bleach solutions, alcohol solutions with at least 70% alcohol, and most common EPA-registered household disinfectants should be effective. Diluted household bleach solutions can be used if appropriate for the surface. Follow manufacturer’s instructions for application and proper ventilation. Check to ensure the product is not past its expiration date. Never mix household bleach with ammonia or any other cleanser. Unexpired household bleach will be effective against coronaviruses when properly diluted. Prepare a bleach solution by mixing: 5 tablespoons (1/3rd cup) bleach per gallon of water or 4 teaspoons bleach per quart of water
    321:

    I'll probably screw this up since it's my first time commenting.

    This will be of most interest to those in the US and especially in North Carolina.

    The University of North Carolina Chapel Hill had a mini-symposium yesterday (March 3) on COVID 19 / SARS-COV-2. The recording is at https://zoom.us/rec/share/zpYuHrbWrD1Je5X2uV_8GbwsH5rJT6a81ydL-fpZy0dufXKKVXVMk9XHbMnVRB_l

    There are four speakers. The first talk is quite scary. The second talk is informative but focused on classical epidemiology so I probably missed things. The third talk is very interesting, especially around minute 54 when he says there are probably thousands of cases in the US rather than the official hundred or so. Not surprising though. The fourth talk is about clinical considerations. The part about the secret government PPE stockpile at about 1:24:30 and the bit about the FDA banning test development by universities (1:25:40) really pissed me off.

    322:

    No, I didn't. My understanding from reading between the lines at the time is that those were mainly Tory LIFE peers, and were needed to overcome the coalition of the Labour life peers and hereditary peers.

    323:

    "garlic-infused nail-polish"? That would not work on me... I am way too fond of garlic! That is probably also why I never could be a vampire. Which don't exist anyway. But I love sunlight too much too.

    324:

    paws4thot @ 270: No names, no pack drill, but I know of at least two cleaning contractors who actually instruct staff to not clean desk tops unless they're clear.

    A number of years ago, I worked for a large computer company, the one that defined PC compatibility. They had what was called a "clean desk" policy. Before you went home for the evening all of your work materials, papers, manuals & tools had to be locked up and your desk was "clean", i.e. there was nothing on the desk except for the telephone & workstation, so I don't think there'd be any problem there.

    You couldn't even leave paper in the trash can, it had to go into a large blue bin for the shredders.

    325:

    JamesPadraicR @ 277:

    Meanwhile: 8% of Iranian parliamentarians test positive for Covid-19.

    Could there be a political revolution in Iran if the elderly hardliners start dropping like flies?

    There could be, but I don't expect one. The Iranian military is heavily invested in the current regime, and another revolution is unlikely to be in their interests. Plus, I think there are plenty of young radical hardliners waiting in the wings to take over from the old fuddy-duddies.

    326:

    really pissed me off

    Just asking because it is not obvious from your comment.

    Because it is nonsense or because you believe it to be true?

    327:

    whitroth @ 281: Oh, wow, donating his couch change to help? All $110k of it? But I thoght he was already donating all of it to something or other....

    If you're referring to the recent announcement that Cheatolini iL Douchebag is "donating" his last quarter 2019 "salary" to the CDC, yeah he has been "donating" it all along, but which agency it gets "donated" to is decided extemporaneously by where he thinks he needs a propaganda boost.

    It's a gimmick. His "donation" is a drop in the bucket compared to the cuts his administration has proposed for the CDC in his 2021 budget. He rakes in much more than he's giving up.

    During the same quarter his DC hotel alone generated a profit greater than his total annual salary. And that doesn't even count what the Secret Service pays to Trump properties for his protection detail to be there whenever he goes to one of them. They don't even get a government employee discount rate.

    Plus, there's no independent audit, so we don't really know that he IS donating his salary. It might just be another scam like the Trump Foundation or Trump University. I bet they don't even bother keeping two sets of books (or if they even keep books).

    328:

    whitroth @ 284: Time for my std. Yankee response to a Southerner's question as to whether I want grits for breakfast: "I don't know if I'll like it, so I'll just take one grit, please."

    OTOH, it's always fun to go into a Waffle House or other similar establishment that serves breakfast 24 hours a day up there in yankeeland and order "grits" just to mess with their heads ... and I don't even like grits. I've never eaten at a southern restaurant that you couldn't get potatoes (hash-browns, home-fries or scalloped potatoes) instead. They won't even bat an eye.

    Oh yeah, in yankeeland you also gotta' ask 'em if they have REAL sweet tea (which I can barely stand either, but in the south I've never run into any problem getting UN-sweetened ice tea).

    My experience has been it's easier to get northern regional cuisine in the south than it is to get southern regional cuisine in the north. YMMV.

    329:

    Everyone with an MBA needs to reapply for their job, which includes taking a test put together by the staff, to show that they actually have a clue of what they're managing.

    Anyone with a business degree and an MBA needs to be escorted out the door yesterday, and given a shopping cart for everything they own,because they're not qualified to be a greeter at Walmart.

    330:

    Ok, Redfin. Do. Not. Ever. Believe. Zillow. Zillow exists solely and exclusively for house flippers, and they overstate the square footage (as they do on the house I own right now, by a lot), and they LIE about value. Maybe 8-10 years ago, I looked up on them what my house in Chicago was worth when I sold it, and they claimed it was worth 40% more (outright flat lie - I have a booklet my agent prepared, showing me what similar houses in the area were being sold for.

    331:

    We need to have tests to run for office, to demonstrate that you at least have read the stolen answers. The Orange Thing would have failed so badly they'd have laughed him out.

    332:

    Because I believe it. We're the FDA and we're in control. Or some other reason I don't understand. But it delayed widespread testing for a week and a half.

    333:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7CJovhhVq8 Somehow, I don't see unavailability of southern culture as a bad thing. Pity I might have to leave the country to be free of it.

    334:

    going draconian with all five claws

    or maybe 4, prove me wrong !

    335:

    I wonder if this means that the Tangerine Terror will hold meetings with Pence in a hazmat suit

    as per Gahan Wilson...

    336:

    I figure that China will truly be past an notions of imperialism when they dig up Qin Shi Huang's tomb in the name of archaeology.

    Until that happens, I'm pretty sure the Chinese dragon will continue to have five claws. If you want to try the experiment, you could go to China and ask if their dragon is four or five clawed...

    337:

    I'm rather busy and won't respond to individual comments. But regarding inheritance tax, make it 100% over two million or even five million pounds if you like. It'll still massively cut down inherited power and wealth. As for corporations, you can do something similar if you want. The specifics I'm not touching here. As for the other stupidly wealthy people in the UK (and everywhere), they can get the same offer the royals get. Donate all your wealth above xx to the 'public', and renounce all rights and responsibilities, and we'll leave you alone.

    Why is the monarchy so much more objectionable than other forms of inherited power? Because it's more obvious, and more insidious. The monarchy makes inherited power appealing. As for democracy, well I don't call rule by some mob of people who had maybe 30% of those people who voted (first-past-the-post) vote for them "democratic". But I'm fussy, when I say "rule by the people" (i.e. "democracy") I actually mean "rule by the people", not rule by some elected plutocrats. (And I recently started writing something about why "rule by 51% of people" can still be just as morally objectionable as "rule by one person".)

    338:

    We need to have tests to run for office

    Remember that whatever test is applied has to be either an amendment to the constitution (when was the ERA ratified?), or it needs to get through the existing representatives, senators and president in whatever form is required to make it long-lasting, plus it has to get through the supreme court ditto.

    So rather than "older, richer, whiter men" have an advantage you'd prefer "candidates must have at least $10M in cash, be at least 50 years old, white ("I know it when I see it" perhaps?) and both genetically male and possessed of a penis"?

    Anything else will drive the slavers into further fits of frothing rage, and it's going to be a long time before the current gerrymandering setup collapses to the point where a simple majority of "other" is enough to overwhelm it. Remember the various contrary majorities - rich white women against the ERA, latinos against DREAMers, etc.

    339:

    inheritance tax

    The problem is that the global tax system has "collapsed"* to the point where a lot of rich people don't own much at all, and a lot of things that you think are valuable actually come with matching debts to effectively anonymous, unowned entities in zero-tax jurisdictions. Admittedly the US and UK are major players in those games so could in theory help dismantle them. But since both are effectively fascist states that theory can't actually happen (the UK has left the EU rather than clamp down on anonymous money, for example).

    Any other single-point reform fails for the same reason. And a lot of simple solutions also break significant parts of the global trade system so change should be made cautiously. Perhaps not quite as cautiously as change is being made, though. And non-financial changes will make some of the reasons to have the current system moot (the pandemic, various climate-related catastrophes etc).

    One of the single-point changes I think would be useful is a beneficial owner disclosure requirement. It would absolutely have to be of the form "if you can't show who owns it then the government is will accept it", but that's not a sufficient condition.

    • in much the same way as the Nazi empire "collapsed"
    340:

    Yes, those of us who have even perused the literature on wealth management are perfectly aware that being a billionaire is about control, not about ownership. Ownership is taxable, control is not.

    What would collapse the billionaire class (perhaps!) is if AIs are employed to force the wealth managers to continually complexify the webs of holding companies, until they lose track of what they actually control. At that point, use abandoned asset laws to scoop the real estate (real=crown, of course) and return ownership to the states.

    Now this is a facetious proposal, because I'm perfectly aware that this ends up with the AIs owning everything.

    The point is concealed control is how things are owned by the super-rich.

    If you really want it all to break down, pray for a World Wide Web War that's so brutal that the internet backbone is broken so that attacks can no longer be propagated through it. Then everyone goes back to using non IoT controls on their remaining infrastructure. As a side effect, many of the ownership structures that billionaires use to avoid taxes literally disappear, since they're based online. The problem then is that large companies will almost certainly squat on assets, claim ownership, and threaten to sue anyone who claims otherwise.

    Nuclear war would be even more thorough.

    341:

    Re: CDC household cleaning guidelines

    Except for the difference in the direction of potential infection, this is pretty close to what we were told to do post-BMT including not directly touching the laundry, using hottest water temp and machine dry thoroughly, etc. Basically in this case, once the patient enters their bedroom, nothing leaves the room unless it's bagged in plastic either for washing or disposal. This includes any food/drink left over by the patient: it should get bagged and tossed immediately. (No reheating/eating their leftovers even if their food was served on a separate paper plate or 'untouched'.)

    If you're concerned about ruining your current designer bedroom linens and bathroom towels with harsh detergents, bleach, etc., get a couple of inexpensive sets that you won't mind throwing out once this is over. A couple of sets because you'll need to change the linens/towels every couple of days at least. Launder immediately, don't let used linens/towels hang around. (Same for clothing.)

    342:

    JBS@324,

    When I worked as an applications programmer WAAAAAY back when (we're talking mainframe COBOL batch, folks), I had the then normal attitude that any horizontal area in the workplace was fair game for such things as 15 inch fanfold compilation listings.

    However, I can tell you who DID keep to the sort of clean desk policy you describe even in that environment. The military liaison officers attached to the various teams. They wouldn't have needed to change their procedures in the slightest to hot desk.

    I once asked the tame Major in my immediate area, who was in every other respect VERY easy-going in his dealings with the IT anarchists, why he adhered to this approach so rigidly when the entire building was a secure area and we didn't work on any systems classified past Restricted. He told me that leaving a clean desk was part of his officer training, with security as PART of the rationale.

    343:

    Saw a tweet with this advice in an image (don't mess with Texas!)

    TEXAS CORONAVIRUS PROTECTION Wash your hands like you just got done slicing jalapenos for a batch of nachos and you need to take your contacts out.

    344:

    "garlic-infused nail-polish"? That would not work on me Yeah, my latest is at #239, a nail polish that smells like rotting flesh, that could be marketed with lines like: "smells like the rotting corpse that you will become if you touch your face!" I've mentioned this approach elsewhere and people have reported success with strongly scented hand lotions or soaps. The point is to be aware of a hand near the face. One problem is olfactory fatigue, but it's only a problem if the scent is detectable when the hand is well away from the face.

    The point is that this is a low-cost behavior modification, that doesn't directly negatively affect commerce or human interactions, and we need to focus on more of these. Also, such modifications (including hand washing) generalize to other diseases transmitted through contact. Social norm breakages, e.g. stopping handshakes might make some uncomfortable, but f-em.

    345:

    What would collapse the billionaire class (perhaps!) is if AIs are employed to force the wealth managers to continually complexify the webs of holding companies, until they lose track of what they actually control. At that point, use abandoned asset laws to scoop the real estate (real=crown, of course) and return ownership to the states. I'm really liking this thought. Though it need not be done with AIs at least initially; e.g. humans can penetrate these webs already, and with assists from very good tooling they could do it faster. (I once had to untangle a decade of financial transactions by someone who passed away after a few years of dementia. Ugh.)

    346:

    Well, don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

    347:

    alexhewat @ 342: JBS@324,

    When I worked as an applications programmer WAAAAAY back when (we're talking mainframe COBOL batch, folks), I had the then normal attitude that any horizontal area in the workplace was fair game for such things as 15 inch fanfold compilation listings.

    However, I can tell you who DID keep to the sort of clean desk policy you describe even in that environment. The military liaison officers attached to the various teams. They wouldn't have needed to change their procedures in the slightest to hot desk.

    I once asked the tame Major in my immediate area, who was in every other respect VERY easy-going in his dealings with the IT anarchists, why he adhered to this approach so rigidly when the entire building was a secure area and we didn't work on any systems classified past Restricted. He told me that leaving a clean desk was part of his officer training, with security as PART of the rationale.

    They didn't tell us why, but I presume they were trying to keep confidential company information confidential. "Clean desk" was their work rule & if you wanted to work there, you followed their rule. I didn't see any problem with it. It wasn't like they were asking me to do anything wrong or shady.

    348:

    Bit of a subject change but I've never seen this before.

    Real time graphics of what the NASA Deep Space Network is doing.

    https://eyes.nasa.gov/dsn/dsn.html

    349:

    You’re thinking wrong about the clear desk policy:

    1) Ensure that membership of “good practice groups” feeds into employee’s regular performance reviews.

    2) Create a “Good Security Practice” group.

    3) Fold the “clear desk policy” into the company security standards — which already have mandatory disciplinary outcomes for non-compliance — as documents or even personal items left on the desktop may constitute a security risk.

    4) Include random “desk checks” as an initiative for the “Good Security Practice” group.

    5) Initial offence results in a small sticker or warning note left for the offender. Desk location and name noted. (For “hot dealing”, create a check in system “for convenience”, but that really allows desk occupancy and occupants to be tracked.)

    6) Repeat offence results in mandatory disciplinary action.

    In short: Why hang a person, when you can hand them a rope and persuade them to hang themselves.

    350:

    Dirk @ 279 snarl I already live somwhere nice - & I don't remember lving anywhere else: Now then fuck right off - AGAIN The stupid, it burns! Charlie: THANK YOU [ It WAS a realtively cheap part of London - I was expecting house-prices to go insane in 1969-70, when the Vic line opened ... nothing happened until about 1995 - THEN they went bonkers. ]

    Graydon @ 276 That's horribly like the main cause of death in 1918-19

    JPR @ 277 We could hope, but there's the utterly mad, totally brainwashed stonkingly-high-on-testosterone "Revolutionary Guard" who need dealing with - at least half-way to the Taliban ( About the only thing they won't do is damage cultrual artefacts. )

    Graham @ 278 You forgot the repressive measures in AUS, which we are being reminded of on this blog.

    whitroth "the Royals" are waaaaay down the list, though ... & I don't think they should be on it, anyway. START with Murdoch, the Barclays, the entire ownership of the Daily Hate, N v Hoogstraten & quite a few like them, yes? SEE ALSO EC @ 300 Thank you, sir & spot on. May I add George V siding with the liberals over Lloyd George's budget, starting off some form of State insurance & pensions.....

    Pigoen YES - this: f the power is real, then what matters is whether or not the person holding it is a wanker, not how they got it. Neither inheritance nor democracy guarantee the result one way or the other. Democracy as a selection method seems to pick wankers very roughly half the time. Inheritance seems to perform with equal mediocrity - indeed the history of the monarchy of England shows a fairly consistent wanker/not wanker alternation by generation... Although the problem with democracy is the way it can be internally subverted; Trump / Erdogan / Brelusconi / Netanyahu are the poster-boys for this. See also Rome from the destruction fo Carthage to the succession of Octavian/Augustus. BOZO is well along the path, but, of course, currently there is ZERO actual "opposition", because wanker Corbyn.

    Various @ 312, 313 ... Really? That serious a hit to world trade already, with total numbers of deaths, let's face it, ridiculously tiny. It shows how close to "the edge" all our systems are & how stupid this all is. I'm reminded of one of A Wellesly's sayings, regarding planning campaigns & fighting wars: They planned their campaigns just as you might make a splendid set of harness. It looks very well, and answers very well, until it gets broken; and then you are done for. Now I made my campaigns of ropes. If anything went wrong, I tied a knot and went on. Wellington practically invented the "sound-byte" 150 years early! [ "Resilience" vs "Efficiency" in fact ]

    PJ Evans @ 343 LURVE IT

    Actual Corvid-19 What is the actual INFECTION rate amongst the general population? OK - let's suppose that it does have a 3.5% fatality rate amongst those infected, but that only 10% of the population get it .... changes the numbers, doesn't it?

    ^^^^^^^ OK again - I'll bite & as I'm too idle to google it. W T F are "grits"? They sound utterly revolting I must admit - even worse than porridge ..... or tapioca SHUDDER

    351:

    I will add (as other posters have commented) there are valid security reasons for having a clear desk policy, or at the very least ensuring that all paperwork and notes are cleared, but the objectionable part in my anecdote is the insidious transformation of fellow employees into informers and enforcers, and the wonderful working environment that engenders!

    352:

    Dirk is trolling, don’t feed him. Along with sneering superciliously at all the “fuddy-duddy” commenters, it seems to be the only reason he pops up these days.

    353:

    Off on a tangent, but Charles Stross is occasionally writing horror, so... "Coronavirus name" https://xkcd.com/2275/

    354:

    Moar Randall Munroe: Self-isolate https://xkcd.com/2276/ goddammit, every nerd is pre-adapted for surviving this epidemic.

    355:

    Office plans: I've sat in an open office for about three years now. I don't like it, but at least in my workplace it's not as bad as it could be. People can reserve a place if they use it every day, and the enforcement is lax. Empty desk policy is okay, as it means "no papers or computer storage on the desk during non-working hours" and makes the cleaners' work easier.

    I use headphones to block out distractions if needed. No noise canceling, but good enough headphones that my tinnitus acts up if I put them on with no sound. We also have silent rooms, but I rarely use them because I have my own (well, company-owned, dedicated to me) mouse and external keyboard. I'd rather not have common-use keyboards, and lugging them around in the office is also annoying, so mostly I just sit at my spot here.

    356:

    Nah. All they would do is to buy a bigger and better AI, so it would just mean that even the investigatory media wouldn't have an earthly of tracking them. And they could shoft from online to manual almost trivial, using an army of peasants as computers (i.e. back to the original meaning).

    There are ways to resolve this, but they involve reversing the current directions rather that accelerating them. Just as with so many other problems, like transport :-(

    357:

    There are. But ONLY if all filing-cabinets are high-security safes, the computer system is secured to spook-level standards, and the building is regularly swept (by competent professionals) for bugs. As clear desk standards are normally imposed without even a gesture in those directions, they are worthless for security.

    358:

    I threatened to go to court if I was forced into one, under the UK's Disability Discrimination Act, which was a main factor in getting the scheme cancelled. But I am severely deaf, and my job required me to use the telephone - inter alia, my deafness means that I cannot control the volume of my own voice at all well.

    359:

    Re the Lords. Yes. Even if my reading of the tea-leves was wrong about the peers bussed in, my point was never that they are particularly wise and benevolent, but that they are no worse than our 'democratically elected' representatives, and a lot less prone to being led to extremism by demagogues. In the past decades, the number of foul laws that have been rammed through by the Commons against the wishes of the Lords far outweighs the obstruction of beneficial laws by the Commons.

    360:

    Absolutely. In most cases it is of course a case of “being seen to do something”, rather than actually doing something effective.

    In most cases the “secure pods” provided for out of hours storage could be opened in about 3 seconds with a broken plastic spork (and two of those seconds is the time taken to find the spork).

    361:

    As clear desk standards are normally imposed without even a gesture in those directions, they are worthless for security.

    I know at least 2 people who worked in TLA environments. They both talked about how their work environments on some projects meant nothing that could record anything went into the work area and nothing came out. I was with one 6 or 7 years ago when he was out buying a "stupid" watch and a CD player so he could wear a watch and listen to music while working. I don't know if they had a clean desk policy but things did NOT leave the room. And the LAN was private. And forget WiFi.

    362:

    Probably loose in the States. No way Canada is going to close the borders soon enough

    As of today's briefing the UK health authorities think community transmission is taking place in the UK. The government has a four-phase epidemic plan (dusted off from SARS -- unlike the US, they didn't dismantle their planning apparatus for ideological reasons) and is moving to phase 2, "delay" (phase 1, "containment", having clearly failed). And the first airline has already gone bust -- FlyBe was already in trouble but got a bail-out from the government in January; COVID-19 has pushed them over the edge.

    A friend who flew to London for meetings yesterday tweeted, unironically, "fastest and most efficient airport security I've ever seen."

    (And I've decided it's time to stop my thrice-weekly swimming routine and switch to walking for exercise: the pool is low-chlorine (b/c no children allowed) which is great for my airways but not so great for sitting around in a hot tub afterwards or sharing water with people who might be shedding coronavirus in the pool. Dammit.)

    363:

    Consider coming round the other way: Edinburgh to Chicago nonstop on United, then nonstop from there to Auckland on Air New Zealand.

    That's a hard "nope".

    I'd have to change planes on US soil. That means entering the USA through border control and customs before re-checking bags and flying on. (Most countries allow international passengers to change flights without entering the airport host country; the USA is a pain in the arse as this process adds 2-3 hours plus stress to changing planes, in the middle of an intercontinental trek.)

    364:

    Turns out that economics blogger Prof Simon Wren-Lewis did work modelling effects of a flu pandemic a few years ago. He’s dusted it off here:

    https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-economic-effects-of-pandemic.html

    Key points: Sick workers staying home is a noticeable but small economic impact. Parents staying home to watch the kids if the schools are closed has a bigger impact - because there are so many of them. Firms that make or sell Durable stuff will mostky be fine. Less people will buy a TV or Car during a pandemic, but that will mostly just defer those purchases by a bit so more people will buy such things afterwards.

    But firms like restaurants or hairdressers or gyms or pubs or other ‘social’ things will be in trouble. A lot of them will go broke if they lose a month’s income. The surprise is how big the ‘social’ economy is: such firms employ a lot of people, having them going broke would hurt. That could cause a recession.

    365:

    Why is the monarchy so much more objectionable than other forms of inherited power? Because it's more obvious, and more insidious. The monarchy makes inherited power appealing.

    The existence of a monarchy also defines two classes of citizenship -- those who are eligible to be head of state (and who are not allowed to vote in parliamentary elections because parliament answers to the head of their family), and those who are never eligible to be head of state (and that parliamentary vote you get is a sop to representation because your representatives are required to swear an oath of loyalty to the monarch before they can take their seats).

    Yes, the UK has a nearly-least-bad implementation of this (the Netherlands is even less toxic, among those where the monarch still has any constitutional role), but the system itself can turn bad in an eye-blink if an authoritarian government decides to turn the monarchical principle into a tool of repression (see also: Thailand).

    366:

    I periodically turn up to see whether the terminal pessimism has dissipated. Everything from Charles 2016 prediction of Brexit dead bodies in the street (don't you just hate being virally right for the wrong reason?) to the ever popular "we are all going to die". [Insert cause here: Brexit, Climate Change, Plague, AI Apocalypse, running out of air etc]. Personally, I am terminally optimistic. Anyway, I will be back again when the bodies in the street start to pile up, to check the mood. I suspect, given the age profile of the blog, some of you won't be posting past that time. But since I'm in that age profile as well... game on!

    367:

    Wren-Lewis also worries about the self-employed in our gig economy, who might not stop working and self-isolate.

    This may be where late-stage capitalism’s erosion of workers rights - to sick pay in particular - could really hurt us all.

    He recommends govt intervention, including a govt sick-pay fund to pay self-employed people to stay home when sick. I just can’t see that happening.

    368:

    For better or worse, Southern US culture has a toxic reputation in many other parts of the world -- one earned through slavery, racism, and post-reconstruction hypocrisy.

    369:

    ctual Corvid-19 What is the actual INFECTION rate amongst the general population?

    The worst-case projection is 80% infection rate.

    The optimistic predictions are in the 40-60% range, which is comparable to Spanish flu coverage.

    50% infection rate with 2% death rate, in the UK, would mean 660,000 dead, which is about the same as the second world war ... only compressed into 6-12 months rather than 6 years.

    370: 362 - There's nothing "hard" on the Engl...BBC news website, but I've seen one report that FlyBE were losing money at the rate of about £12 for every passenger flown. 363 - Thiefrow have done that to me, despite the fact I remained airside for the entire duration of the transfer!
    371:

    Hmm

    • The paper Charlie quoted above (post 306) suggests that this is die to encephalitis - the virus travel sup sensory/motor pathways into the brain and shuts down the respiratory centres in the medulla.

    • The WHO report tells us that 5% of those infected are unable two breathe spontaneously and require artificial ventilation.

    What we don't know is the recovery rate of that 5%.

    372:

    Argh. should have proofread better. Apologies.

    373:

    A typical bit of BritGloom: https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1235501769007992832

    Even at 50% infection, and 10% hospitalisation, that's 1.5 million in a burst. The UK has 10% of that number of beds.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_James_Frazer

    374:

    The worst case scenario (high end of infection estimates, high end of death estimates) doesn't bear thinking about: it'd be a die-back on the scale of both world wars dropped on us in under 12 months (rather than stretched out over a decade). Mass graves time, the crematoria couldn't possibly keep up, and subsequent societal changes as a result.

    On the up side: I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen. (He says, clutching his lucky rabbit's foot.)

    375:

    Fair point. Entering's not too bad, and airports like ORD and LAX have onward bag drops to speed things up - but then you have to go back through TSA. I can understand wanting to find another route.

    376:

    OTOH Bozo and Trumpolini appear to think the worst won't happen...

    377:

    They can't control it so it's not their problem; their problem is how to hold on to power.

    378:

    Also - not get infected.

    379:

    From the BBC: "take it on the chin" and allow it to "move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures", Mr Johnson said.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51749352

    I.e. let people die to protect GDP.

    380:

    True, but ignoring the real issue; they get stuff right on the "stopped clock" method. ;-) (if you don't believe me, watch Prime Minister's Questions, and note how often Bozo seems to be pulling data out of his @r$e! Take note; I'm not the only person in this company who thinks so.)

    381:

    but I've seen one report that FlyBE were losing money at the rate of about £12 for every passenger flown.

    So it was the Lucy Ricardo business plan. Lose a bit on each sale but make it up in volume.

    382:

    For better or worse, Southern US culture has a toxic reputation in many other parts of the world -- one earned through slavery, racism, and post-reconstruction hypocrisy.

    The problem is this is crap. Both in reality and reputation.

    The south of the US was up front about all of this. The north pretended their shit didn't stink. Sort of like a lot of the world.

    Good or bad the south bragged about their crap. Everyone else pretended it didn't exist.

    There is a lot about southern culture that worked well. If you were of the right shade. No excuses but that's what JDS was talking about. Say's he who has lived in KY, PA, CT, and now NC. And visited a lot of other placed.

    I was in school (5th grade) when we integrated. I was too socially clueless to realize how crap it was in terms of implementation. While in high school there were some public debates that opened my eyes that some of my parents social circle were not all that nice of people.

    383:

    Greg Tingey @ 350: ^^^^^^^
    OK again - I'll bite & as I'm too idle to google it.
    W T F are "grits"?
    They sound utterly revolting I must admit - even worse than porridge ..... or tapioca SHUDDER

    They're kind of like Couscous made from ground corn (maize).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grits

    They're not bad tasting, just very bland when served plain. But they are generally served plain so the person eating them can season them however they want them seasoned.

    You can season them any way you want to (although putting ketchup on grits is ICKY and WILL get you strange looks). The fun with Yankees trying to eat them is they don't seem to understand you have to season them to taste, so they try to eat them plain.

    384:

    Ok, Redfin. Do. Not. Ever. Believe. Zillow.

    Agreed. We figured that out a while back when we had a more active interest in house prices. Redfin is at least in the "less bad" category and is usually ok for quick sense-of-the-territory looks. But it also needs cross-checking for anything that actually matters.

    385:

    "I.e. let people die to protect GDP." There is a very strong argument for that, especially if you are one of those people who believes "austerity" has caused a lot of deaths. Also, getting it over quickly rather than dragging it out over a few years has its benefits. But only if there is no effective vaccine soon. Since I spend about 2hrs a day on the London tube I probably won't get a choice. BTW Greg - London is a shithole.

    386:

    Charlie Stross @ 362: unlike the US, they didn't dismantle their planning apparatus for ideological reasons

    I dunno. Is pure spiteful stupid malicious vandalism an ideology?

    387:

    It's a bone-headed approach. What it WON'T do is to protect GDP, because the extra disruption will cause more financial harm than it gains. I am not convinced about the political and economic demographic changes, either, because disruption almost always causes the 'rules' to change.

    While I agree with OGH about the need to buy a good rabbit's foot, the figures I gave were towards the low end of what the experts expect. If Bozo handles this competently, I will forgive him for most things except Brexit, but a universal vaccine delivered by flying pigs is more likely.

    On the other hand, as I have said, even a 3% death rate if concentrated among the elderly and infirm is not a long-term problem. The 1918 influenza caused FAR less economic and political disruption than the war deaths. We old fogies don't have that long to go, anyway - er, live with it. But I can see no sign that the gummint is going to manage the short-term problem competently.

    My wife (who works close to the NHS) actually said that Cunt would be far better than Halfcock - while true, we desperately need someone of MUCH higher calibre.

    388:

    They're [grits] kind of like Couscous made from ground corn (maize).

    They're also not unlike polenta. Note that there's a variant made with ground dried hominy, which is nixtamalized corn and reasonably nutritious. We've made faux polenta with that and it's pretty good.

    389:

    Just a reminder (Not as gentle as it might've been.) that goes both ways. And think a bit about how inextricably bound contemporary conservatism is with the peculiar beliefs of the southern .01% and all the joy that has brought us.

    390:

    Some forms of maize have a fairly horrible acrid taste if not cooked for long enough - which can mean hours. I think that most varieties eaten by humans in 'the west' have now had that bred out of them (like spinach and its bitterness), but I remember it. As always, that sort of breeding almost always leads to blandness.

    391:

    Charlie Stross @ 363:

    Consider coming round the other way: Edinburgh to Chicago nonstop on United, then nonstop from there to Auckland on Air New Zealand.

    That's a hard "nope".

    I'd have to change planes on US soil. That means entering the USA through border control and customs before re-checking bags and flying on. (Most countries allow international passengers to change flights without entering the airport host country; the USA is a pain in the arse as this process adds 2-3 hours plus stress to changing planes, in the middle of an intercontinental trek.)

    I wonder if you could accomplish the same thing - "coming round the other way" - going through Canada ... Toronto or Vancouver maybe? The U.S. isn't the only country in North America that has international airports. I'd expect at least one airline would have a direct, nonstop flight from Canada to NZ.

    392:

    Flights to Canada are candidates for being diverted to US airports in an emergency and as such can be subject to American TSA and ESTA. It's basically the 357kg gorilla principle combined with the Monroe Doctrine.

    393:

    The U.S. isn't the only country in North America that has international airports.

    And then there's South America. See #138 above.

    394:

    I have a dumbphone (Nokia 7110) in part because I used to work in secure data centres where nothing personal that could exfiltrate data was permitted beyond the airlock security doors -- no wifi, no mobile data, no SD card, no Bluetooth, no camera.

    395:

    "And then there's South America"

    And then there's staying at home when you have pre-existing conditions like Charlie, and the subject of this blog post is spreading like wildfire.

    My wife and I are rearranging London meetings to be online. She has already canned a trip to NYC for the Armory Show (an art fair). The current main thinking here is not wanting to get quarantined somewhere that isn't home if a fellow attendee of some event turns out to be infected.

    I suspect the "not leaving the house unless absolutely necessary" stage is a few weeks away at this point.

    396:

    Charlie Stross @ 368: For better or worse, Southern US culture has a toxic reputation in many other parts of the world -- one earned through slavery, racism, and post-reconstruction hypocrisy.

    I understand that, but if you're going to be down on Southern U.S. culture, shouldn't it be for what's going on now instead of what we did wrong a hundred years ago. There are plenty of problems that still need to be fixed so we can move ahead, but they're not exclusive to the U.S. South. Jim Crow originated in the North.

    https://www.amazon.com/Color-Law-Forgotten-Government-Segregated/dp/1631492853

    Slavery was introduced into the American Colonies by British merchants and the "cotton culture" of the deep south was primarily fueled by British demand to feed English mills & financed by British Banks. The Confederacy wouldn't have lasted a year without Britain's (unofficial) support. And the "Southern" elites who engaged in that slave/cotton plantation culture were primarily descended from the fortune seeking younger sons of the British Aristocracy. So if we're going to condemn wrongs done a hundred years ago, the U.K. needs to accept their share of the blame, because the culture of the American South is more than anything else, an extension of British Culture from the same period.

    https://www.amazon.com/American-Nations-History-Regional-Cultures/dp/0143122029

    Not everything people believe about Southern U.S. culture are actually Southern, U.S., culture or true.

    397:

    Your Nokia wouldn't be allowed into the areas these guys worked in. ;)

    399:

    David L @ 382: I was in school (5th grade) when we integrated. I was too socially clueless to realize how crap it was in terms of implementation. While in high school there were some public debates that opened my eyes that some of my parents social circle were not all that nice of people.

    And from my perspective ... I was in the 1st grade when Durham, NC began the process of desegregating schools. It's been two steps forward and one-and-a-half steps back ever since then NATIONWIDE. Some locations, oddly enough more often in the "old south" than anywhere else, have made more progress toward desegregation than other places (Urban NE & rural NW). But there is NOT yet an integrated school system anywhere in the U.S., North or South, East or West.

    In the early 70s, courts in Massachusetts and in North Carolina ordered school busing for desegregation in Boston, MA and in Raleigh, NC. There were riots in Boston, but not in Raleigh.

    We (the U.S.) have gotten a lot closer to integration in commerce. Doesn't matter what color your skin is, everyone's money is green, and the corporations are willing to steal it from you regardless race, color, creed, national origin, gender or sexual identity.

    400:

    Chris King @ 395:

    "And then there's South America"

    And then there's staying at home when you have pre-existing conditions like Charlie, and the subject of this blog post is spreading like wildfire.

    My wife and I are rearranging London meetings to be online. She has already canned a trip to NYC for the Armory Show (an art fair). The current main thinking here is not wanting to get quarantined somewhere that isn't home if a fellow attendee of some event turns out to be infected.

    I suspect the "not leaving the house unless absolutely necessary" stage is a few weeks away at this point.

    I hope my suggestions will be taken in the spirit of "If you want to go, might this alternative circumvent the obstacles that are preventing you from doing so."

    401:

    David L @ 397: Your Nokia wouldn't be allowed into the areas these guys worked in. ;)

    You weren't even allowed to take a pencil, pen or a piece of paper in or out.

    402:

    JBS @ 400:

    You make a good point.

    403:

    Re: 'You weren't even allowed to take a pencil, ...'

    Did they check hands? One colleague used his palm/arm as a portable notebook.

    404:

    Nojay was working with banking IT systems in a cash center owned by a bank that got to print legal tender.

    That's one level of security paranoia. (Consider the likely threats.)

    Working in national security is an entirely different threat environment, so yeah. I strongly suspect that the "no pencils, no paper, definitely no devices rule" probably impacted staff efficiency ... but it was a sensible a cost/benefit trade-off under the circumstances.

    (Bank: worst case, huge financial losses and maybe a beaten up security guard or two. NatSec: worst case, mind-bogglingly huge financial losses (as in, carrier battle group or mechanized brigade sized) and a lot of soldiers have a Very Bad Day. No comparison.)

    405:

    A bright point in all the politiical gloom...they are bringing back "Spitting Image". It will not stop brexit or the epidemic and all the other horrors, but at least the morons and criminals will be depicted the way they deserve. The britons who don't die of disease and poverty-induced health problems will get something to smile at.

    406:

    The modern world is fragile, and most western economies at this point (thanks in a large part to the shifting of actually making most things to cheaper places) rely on consumer spending to keep the economy out of recession.

    In a case like this that will be difficult to do.

    But really, the best point/line (though I don't share the same optimism about the public at large learning the lesson) was the final sentence:

    "One lesson of coronavirus may be never put into power politicians that have a habit of ignoring experts."

    407:

    icehawk And how well will Corvid-19 cope with being immersed in an anywhere between 4.2% - 5.5% alcholol solution, I wonder? [ Otherwise known as "a pint" ]

    Charlie: OK so let's take the 50% infection rate ... What's the infection rate in Wuhan, then - do we actually know & can we actually trust any numbers coming ut of the PRC, because propaganda? Though just over half a million dead wouild really be a disaster ... Even if this one fizzles out, as I suspect it may Unless something really serious is done SOME NEW DISEASE WILL HIT US - & it will probably, also come for the same general area, because of things like their vile "wet markets". See also my previous remarks about "Efficiency" vs "Resilience" - also known as short-term & long-term thinking, I suppose.

    JBS @ 383 BLEURGH I like fresh "Corn" - especially if I can get it to grow properly & keep the ffing grey squirrels off the cobs ... but grinding it to couscous & serving bland ... yup - porridge/tapioca YUCK ... @ 386 YES - it is an ideology, unfortunately - it's a variant of Nihilism Also called (incorrectly IMHO) "disaster capitalism" Smash it up & steal the remnants is the method, yes? @ 396 YOU FORGET That one of the pricipal "reasons" for the US "revolution" was that farseeing people understood the long-term implications of the Mansfield Decision ... that Britain was going to abolish slavery, not too far in the future ... so lets rebel, right now, so we can carry on ... @ 399 😂 oh and ... 💩

    Dirk @ 395 STOP TROLLING ( And lying & being an annoying shit ... )

    QUESTION What happens if you are booked on a flight, or flight-transfer via CAN, but get diverted to the US & don't have a visa (etc, etc) They plainly don't want you, nor you them - do they hold you until they can post you on, send you back... or what?

    408:

    Re: 'Not everything people believe about Southern U.S. culture are actually Southern, U.S., culture or true.'

    Okay - Stephen Colbert is from South Carolina, so that's at least one person.

    Wondering whether some measurement other than inherited wealth might be a better predictor of a region's social consciousness, let's say: religiosity of the bible-is-the-one-and-only-literal-Truth variety and NRA membership. Or if that area doesn't publish such data then try: local public schools use only books recommended by the Texas School Board. A bit easier for a quick assessment because it combines both these variables, but messier for the stats geeks who prefer their variables unconfounded.

    409: 404 - I wasn't aware that Nojay had worked for the Bank of England. The "big 3" Scottish clearing banks are allowed to print "bills of exchange" which are usually treated as legal tender, but aren't. (Original source my father, who worked for the Clydesdale). 407 I have some Mexican recipes that use corn meal, and use it instead of breadcrumbs for making schnitzels or "breading" fish for frying. I've never tried making a cornmeal porridge though.
    410:

    Comedians like Stephen Colbert are the reason I can keep up with the US news without puking.

    411:

    4.2% alcohol?

    I don't think that's fit for this purpose. A 30 second exposure to 42% alcohol is apparently what you need, so I think you're going to need to switch to Whisky or Gin. Without ice or mixers.

    (We're lucky that it's a virus that gets messed up by soap or strong alcohol. I suspect that's due to the same structural features that do make it so infectious.)

    412:

    The Mansfield decision got the southern colonies on board with the northeast, but they expected, and often got an outsized share of power in exchange.

    413:

    Fwd: "Dogs, cats can't pass on coronavirus, but can test positive" https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-dogs-cats-coronavirus-positive.html Thank Ctulhu for that. If pets had been carriers life would not be Worth living.

    414:

    AIUI the "bills of exchange"/"legal tender" distinction is down to Scotland and England having disjoint legal systems that use different terms. In actual practice, Scottish banknotes are just as much banknotes as Bank of England ones.

    415:

    Paws For schnitzels, try a mix of fine & medium Matzo Meal... I use this regularly!

    Charlie @ 414 In other owrds ... " A Promise to Pay" ... as it says on the notes.

    416:

    Spent the summers with my Southern grandparents growing up. My experience of grits: delicious with butter, salt, and pepper. Also had a delicious dish with shrimp and creamy grits in New Orleans a while back...but plain grits??? Yuck!

    417:

    I think there is an urban/rural divide in the South much like the rest of the US. Visiting my relatives in their small Kentucky town feels like going back in time about 40 years. What I find suffocating is the role religion plays, and the pressure to conform. A nice thing is that people often look out for each other and help out in ways that would require paying someone a lot of money for the same service here in California.

    418:

    The infection rate is R₀ and it's not known. (And is always an estimate with messy stats.) The individual contact transmission rate is between 1% and 5% from Chinese data; we can put some weight on the stuff from the WHO trip to the PRC.

    Note that the initial cover up response has been overridden hard by the central committee; the decision to spend all that GDP by shutting down and then not do the real stats is not plausible. So the current statistics and especially the direct medical stuff (what the autopsies are finding, gene sequences, etc.) are reliable. It's not controlled-experiment quality data, but it is enough to do epidemiology with.

    The caveat is that like any virus going greenfield into new hosts, it's going to mutate. The more spread, the more opportunity for mutation and the more opportunity for the usual selection process against especially virulent strains. (Being a virulent disease lowers your odds of transmission as you kill your host prior to sufficient contact with alternative host organisms.)

    419:

    Re cornmeal mush: when someone like me (who grew up on the stuff) says "don't bother", it might give you a hint ....

    420:

    DQT* 3:

    Are 'novel' viruses identifiable via light (spectroscopy)? If yes, does this mean that a smartphone lens/software (app) can be developed and used to scan for/identify a virus, as in the Star Trek tricorder?

    Related to this: Is anyone studying what light could inactivate the Covid19 virus? (See below for a 'proof of concept' paper on a different virus.)

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5429381/

    'New Proof-of-Concept in Viral Inactivation: Virucidal Efficacy of 405 nm Light Against Feline Calicivirus as a Model for Norovirus Decontamination

    Abstract

    The requirement for novel decontamination technologies for use in hospitals is ever present. One such system uses 405 nm visible light to inactivate microorganisms via ROS-generated oxidative damage. Although effective for bacterial and fungal inactivation, little is known about the virucidal effects of 405 nm light. Norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis outbreaks often occur in the clinical setting, and this study was designed to investigate potential inactivation effects of 405 nm light on the NoV surrogate, feline calicivirus (FCV). FCV was exposed to 405 nm light whilst suspended in minimal and organically-rich media to establish the virucidal efficacy and the effect biologically-relevant material may play in viral susceptibility. Antiviral activity was successfully demonstrated with a 4 Log10 (99.99%) reduction in infectivity when suspended in minimal media evident after a dose of 2.8 kJ cm−2. FCV exposed in artificial faeces, artificial saliva, blood plasma and other organically rich media exhibited an equivalent level of inactivation using between 50–85% less dose of the light, indicating enhanced inactivation when the virus is present in organically-rich biologically-relevant media. Further research in this area could aid in the development of 405 nm light technology for effective NoV decontamination within the hospital environment.'

    • 'Dumb question time'
    421:

    SFReader @ 403: Re: 'You weren't even allowed to take a pencil, ...'

    Did they check hands? One colleague used his palm/arm as a portable notebook.

    Go straight to Ft. Leavenworth. Do not collect $200. TLA agency within the U.S. Army. VERY strict. They checked. Trying to sneak anything in or out was a court-martial offense for espionage under the UCMJ. They were not playing around.

    422:

    You are remembering the bit where I'm Scottish and we regard oatmeal porridge (normally with milk and salt or sugar) as a good "hot breakfast?

    423:

    Allen Thomson noted: "Not to be too obvious, but a thoughtful selection of spices/condiments can help with the diversity thing."

    Definitely. Chicken is chicken the world over, but nobody would mistake southern fried chicken from Thai chicken or any of several Indian chickens. Similarly, oatmeal ad nauseam can get pretty bland, but if you throw in other grains and different dried fruits, it becomes more palatable for long-term use.

    That's why spices are included in my prep list (http://geoff-hart.com/resources/covid19.html). Also drinking alcohol ("to improve morale", but it also improves many dishes. A nice dark stout in chili, for instance.)

    424:

    Greg Tingey @ 407: JBS @ 383
    BLEURGH
    I like fresh "Corn" - especially if I can get it to grow properly & keep the ffing grey squirrels off the cobs ... but grinding it to couscous & serving bland ... yup - porridge/tapioca YUCK

    It's served bland so you can season it to your taste. You don't eat it bland unless you're an ignorant Yankee who doesn't know any better. I don't know anyone who doesn't put some kind of seasoning, if nothing more than butter, salt & pepper, on grits and I grew up here where it's been a staple food all my life. Nobody eats just plain grits ... not more than once anyway.

    @ 396
    YOU FORGET
    That one of the pricipal "reasons" for the US "revolution" was that farseeing people understood the long-term implications of the Mansfield Decision ... that Britain was going to abolish slavery, not too far in the future ... so lets rebel, right now, so we can carry on ...

    Nope. I don't forget. Mansfield had nothing to do with the American Revolution. In fact, when the General Court of Massachusetts Colony ordered freedom for slaves in accordance with the Lord Mansfield's ruling in the Sumerset case, they were overruled by a succession of Royal Governors. It was high-handed interference in the internal affairs of the colonies by Royal officials that led to the American Revolution.

    The Declaration of Independence succinctly lists the causes.

    425:

    "a dose of 2.8 kJ cm-2"

    That's ten times the whole-spectrum intensity of sunlight for three-quarters of an hour. I'd guess you could inactivate most things with that dose at more or less any "light" wavelength purely by thermal effects.

    426:

    SFR Generally speaking, most viruses are too small to be seen with a light microscope - but there are exceptions.

    427:

    colortheorytoo @ 417: I think there is an urban/rural divide in the South much like the rest of the US. Visiting my relatives in their small Kentucky town feels like going back in time about 40 years. What I find suffocating is the role religion plays, and the pressure to conform. A nice thing is that people often look out for each other and help out in ways that would require paying someone a lot of money for the same service here in California.

    Kentucky, although a "slave state", is not really part of the south. It's "Greater Appalachia" like western Pennsylvania. It has much more in common with its neighbors across the Ohio River than it does with the "Deep South" Carolinas, Georgia & states of the lower Mississippi watershed (the cotton belt).

    North Carolina is split between "Tidewater", "Greater Appalachia" and the "Deep South". In fact the part North Carolina where I grew up and where I live now (about 20 miles apart) are at the pivot point for those three regions, so it's a mix of cultures. I'd bet most here don't even know the difference between North Carolina & South Carolina (hint: South Carolina STARTED the American Civil War, and North Carolina didn't).

    I really strongly recommend Colin Woodard's "American Nations" if you want to understand the regional cultures of North America. Among other things it explains why the 13 Colonies that became the U.S. revolted and why the former "New France" settlements in eastern Canada didn't join them (and why "New France" in Louisiana eventually did).

    http://colinwoodard.com/americannations.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/opinion/urban-rural-united-states-regions-midterms.html

    428:

    COVID-19 is loose (i.e. community transmission is happening) in both the US and Canada. The rate of testing makes it impossible to determine how serious this is.

    My guess: A huge number of people have caught COVID-19, but the rate of serious cases will be much less than 1%. The assumption here is that the US isn't the only place that has been doing a poor job of testing, so basically the only cases tested are those serious enough to show up at a hospital (and in the US not even most of them).

    429:

    Just so y'all know. I got the shutoff valve for my new stove installed.

    Wasn't as hard as I was afraid it would be. I didn't know if the existing pipe ell & cap would be frozen together from having the pipe dope in the joints undisturbed for half a century, but a fairly gentle application of torque with a pipe wrench undid them and the threads were clean. I used Teflon tape for the new valve instead of pipe dope. Tested the seal with soapy water & with a specialty gas leak detector solution.

    So, I'm ready to go when the stove gets here. By tomorrow night, I'll be "cookin' with gas!"

    430:

    ...Also: Viruses are made of the bare minimum selection of molecules from the biomolecular library needed to transport a bit of code about. This minimalism around a common need means they are all basically made of the same stuff. They are rather like USB memory sticks. They all look pretty much the same; the difference is the pattern of 1s and 0s inside. All you can say from looking at them is "that's a USB stick"; more detailed investigation is required to determine whether they contain Stuxnet code or just billions of FFs.

    So, any visible light method, nope. (X-ray diffraction gives you some broad classification, allowing you to distinguish normal finger biscuit shaped ones from ones shaped like a little doggie, etc.) There is the further problem that the quantity needed to be infectious is vastly smaller than the amount you'd need for any hand held instrument to even see it's there.

    On the same theme, the decontamination methods we have are on the same kind of level as hitting it with a hammer. Ones with a case made of thicker plastic or something might still work, in which case you hit them again and/or use a bigger hammer. Similarly all we can really do to prevent them being plugged in is pour glue over them. We don't have anything better that can avoid also smashing the thing it's on, or making a sticky mess of everything. On the other hand these methods do tend to work on everything, whereas methods with less potential for collateral damage, such as erasing the payload or disabling the USB controller, are model-specific and need rewriting every time someone in China rejiggers their production methods.

    431:

    Charles H You have put your finger on a fatal weakness in the US ... People have to PAY - bucketloads - to go to hospital, even for tests. So, unless people are desperate, they simply will not do it - & the virus will spread. Whereas, elsewhere in civilised countries the national health systems will pick the problem UP & do theor best to sweep it up, because, no matter how expensive, prevention is still cheaper ....

    432:

    If you're going to have a 100% over a base inheritance task, at least index it. Say 100% over twice the median value of inheritances for the prior year (or decade).

    That might have something going for it.

    433:

    A huge number of people have caught COVID-19, but the rate of serious cases will be much less than 1%.

    Probable case number is not yet huge in Anglo NorAm (tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands or millions), the PRC data via the WHO really shrinks the error bars on the number of undetected cases there (the PRC is testing everyone presenting to medical services with a fever at this point), and the expected rate of serious cases is way, way higher than 1% based on that data.

    It is really important to remember that the existing lethality estimates presume a functioning health care system doing its best for everybody. The expected lethality in the event of a health care breakdown is an order of magnitude greater.

    434:

    I.e. let people die to protect GDP.

    That is overly glib.

    You are assuming that draconian measures - things like closing schools and workplaces are actually effective and not just theatre.

    Isolation works. Isolation is where sick people stay home. That reduces infection rates by a lot.

    Healthy people staying home - not as useful unless you do it for close to everyone.
    Just not effective otherwise.

    And if you do it, then how many months do you plan to shut down the economy for? Seriously, the virus is not going away.

    GDP is not just a number, the economy is people’s livelihoods. Draconian measures means bankruptcies, unemployment, people losing their homes. Economic crises ruin lives and kill people.

    There is a level of pandemic where that is worth it. I am not convinced that this is it.

    435:

    Ah yes, I remember hearing about that book and it look interesting. I have long thought that there are many flavors of “southern”. And ironically, all of my relatives in western Kentucky and even just over the river in Indiana consider themselves to be southern, and frequently mention it. There is also what seems to be a somewhat distinct culture along that part of the Ohio River (ask me about “burgoo” sometime!) My family was entirely German-speaking from arrival in Virginia in the late 1600s until World War I—maybe the book covers that as well. If we’re splitting hairs, I would describe them as a blend of Midwestern/Southern, but I’m no expert. Thanks for the book recommendation, I’ll put it on my list!

    And now I must drag my distractable ADHD self back to finishing my disaster preparedness shopping and hopefully making some art.

    436:

    The US used to have a 90% inheritance tax ("death tax"). I think it's now 40%.

    What we need is to have it apply to all trusts where the party that died had more than 25% control over. It was always only on high-value estates.

    Take it back to 90%, with what I suggested above, to prevent trusts from getting around it.

    437:

    Income and asset caps.

    Income is capped at 10 times the lower of median or mean income (if you get it, and can say what to do with it without going through some mechanism that can and does tell you no in permanent ways, it's income).

    Assets are capped at 50 times max income/500 times the floor(median,mean) income.

    (You worked for fifty years, from 20 to 70, and made and kept max income for every one of those years.)

    If the applicable mean income number is 50 k$CURRENCY, the max income would be 500 k$CURRENCY and the max assets with be 25 M$CURRENCY. That's certainly not suffering, and it fixes pretty much all of the structural problems around refusal to pay taxes, political decisions made for money instead of human survival, and similar.

    438:

    The Spanish Flu was particularly tragic because it hit young adults aged 15 to 35 worst by far, with a mortality rate several orders of magnitude higher than normal. Older people had residual resistance from earlier flus, but young people not. The average mortality is hiding how truly horrible the 1918-1920 pandemic was.

    439:

    When I said "tests", I meant it. I think a first revision would be that they have to pass the same test that someone applying for US citizenship has to pass.

    Here's me paying for a drink for you if the Orange Fool could do it, or even get half the questions right.

    440:

    There's a problem with this: "One lesson of coronavirus may be never put into power politicians that have a habit of ignoring experts."

    Experts are often not only in agreement, but wrong. Usually they're right, but unpredictably they're wrong. So you need to not just attend to them, but weight the costs and benefits of their being wrong. And, of course, most alternatives to a wrong opinion are also wrong. Whoops!

    Then there's the fact that a politician MUST appear decisive, or he won't be trusted. Ouch!

    So that's a really difficult problem. Usually the right decision will be to go with the experts, but not to be certain that they are correct. (And it's also worth noting that in some areas the experts aren't much better than throwing darts. See "Random Walk through Wall Street". And there was this Chimpanzee that beat the market one year.)

    441:

    Recently read a story about how the residents of an apartment building in NYC kept complaining, and the city inspectors gave it failings in a lot of things, but the managers shrugged their shoulders, because who owned it was so complex that they couldn't find them to fine.

    I don't understand why the city didn't just seize the building, and run it/sell it to the residents.

    442:

    Who to start with? Hell, yes. US: McConnel, Graham, every single member of the self-proclaimed "Tea Party" group (aka the Koch-funded neoConfederates). Murdoch....

    443:

    I've never had to work in that kind of environment - in fact, at one place, we were trained to not lock our desks, because we were working with hardcopy records that needed to be accessible at all times. (We were loading the information in a database which is still in use, but while it was being loaded, there was no guarantee it wouldn't be needed in an emergency.) So I got in the habit of not keeping anything more personal than bandaids and pain relievers in my desk, and leaving it unlocked. We also were trained to leave the computers on all the time, because updates tended to be done in the off-hours.

    444:

    Sorry, but when there's plenty of hosts, there's little pressure to not kill your current host...at least not at the cost of becoming less infectious.

    I know this isn't the normal belief, but that's the way it works. There's a lot of pressure to remain as infectious as possible for as long as possible, but if the immune system is going to kill you eventually anyway, there's no reason not to kill the host first, especially if it lets you infect even one additional host.

    For an extreme example of this, consider the fungus that causes ants to climb to the top of a weed where they are exposed to predators, and hang on until they die.

    445:

    Current (as of last year) for the US federal gov't, generally, is not clean desk, but anything dealing with any level of classification or privacy:

  • Do not take home.
  • Do not leave on desk.
  • Must be stored in locked drawer or file cabinet.
  • May not be seen by a foreign national.
  • May not be discussed in public (hallways, break rooms, etc).
  • NOT TO BE AVAILABLE ON PUBLIC WIFI.
  • 446:

    Graydon My mother's family all got the "Spanish Flu" - including my grandparents, who would then have been (approx) 45-50 yr old - they were deradfully afraid that the youngest, one of my aunts was really, really going to die, but she just scraped through. She would have been about 8 or 9 at the time.

    Charles H OTOH, the example of Churchill in WWII, who had a panel of "civilian" experts on whom he relied for much information, which helped guide us away from many of the worse paths we could have taken.

    whitroth I think that's impsssible here. ( I could be wrong )

    447:

    To be serious, you'd probably want something more in the range of 60%, and also some other ingredients to stop your skin drying out. Like actual professionally made stuff.

    448:

    I'm not Scots, but I considered good Oatmeal (i.e. steel cut in large chunks) with milk to be a decent breakfast. Other cuts of oats required additional seasoning, and just forget the instant oatmeal. (Fast cooking oatmeal was decent with milk when uncooked, but not really tasty.)

    449:

    Family members had a winter holiday in Mexico; they rented a house for a week or so (it was a group of 11). One couple lives in Germany; he's from Africa, so it was safer for him than the US.

    450:

    "Protect GDP"? Given that GDP has no relation to the well-being of 99% of the population, screw it.

    Oh, and "London is a shithole"? I see, Dirk is a suburban asshole who doen't understand cities, fears and hates them, but comes in to aggravate those of us who love cities, and make himself unwanted.

    Go home, little boy.

    451:

    No, racist pig reasons. People keep getting so tied up in the "peeing hookers" that they completely miss the point that he went to a lot of effort to make sure it was the mattress the Obamas slept on when they came to Moscow.

    452:

    The heaviest support of Trumpolini is in the South, and it's SOUTHERN BLOODY BADTASTES and the heavy, heavy "funnymentalist literalist evangelicals" that are in the South.

    I, being of Jewish ancestry, and a socialist, am really nervous in much of the South, esp. the Deep South.

    453:

    [quote]You have put your finger on a fatal weakness in the US ... People have to PAY - bucketloads - to go to hospital, even for tests.[/quote]

    Yes, that's a real problem. But it's not the only problem. The CDC hasn't been doing their job, and their management didn't want they to do their job, so the first round of test kits were highly defective, and they forbid anyone else to develop test kits. Recently (i.e. this week) they've decided that States can develop their own tests. One report I ran across said that at the time they took the figures down from their web page (around Feb. 20) there had been fewer than 500 people tested in the entire country. So it's not just down to excessive costs.

    454:

    I have a flipphone, no camera. It is, you understand, a "cellular telephone", for "speaking to someone at a distance".

    I'm online, in front of a real computer, with a real keyboard, and a 24" diagonal screen far too much of the day. Why is it that I should carry something so that someone who's TERRIFIED of speaking to another human being can text me, and expect instant answers, at all times of the day and night? Or watch things on a microscopic screen?

    And does anyone want to argue that a virtual keyboard on a stupidphone is anything other than an abominably horrible kludge of an interface?

    Oh, and I'm waiting for the clinical reports of a pandemic of carpal tunnel syndrome from texting.

    455:

    I know you want to avoid Heathrow but if you're willing to put that aside, Qantas operates a direct flight from Heathrow to Perth. 17 hours in a Dreamliner. From Perth the flight will take you onto Melbourne or you can head elsewhere. Getting to Wellington from an east coast Australian city is trivial. No North America, no Middle East, no Asia. And they're planning on direct east coast to London and New York flights in a couple of years (assuming...)

    456:

    Probable case number is not yet huge in Anglo NorAm

    Non-Anglo Americas, north and south, are pretty low as far as reported (not probable) cases are concerned. As of writing

    Ecuador 13 Mexico 5 Brazil 4 Chile 4 St Barthemely 3 Argentina 1 DomRep 1

    All else 0

    Total 31

    Ecuador might be breaking out, TBD. Whatever else is there is lurking unreported at the moment.

    457:

    I have long thought that there are many flavors of “southern”.

    But oddly, there aren't any Northerners/Yankees, outside of a few rural areas, and haven't been for over a century. Certainly none of my ancestors emigrated from Europe in time for the US Civil War, and pretty well everyone who lives in Boston/NY/etc would say the same. (Italians? Puerto Ricans? Poles?) The Civil War is mostly just another thing you study in high school. So when someone with a southern accent uses a word like "Yankee" or "Yankeeland" he gets kind of a sideways look. "Ignorant Yankee" is an ignorant phrase.

    458:

    Qantas operates a direct flight from Heathrow to Perth. 17 hours in a Dreamliner.

    Speaking of that, what's happened to the Airbus A350 ULR? According to billing, it should be able to get to any place in Australia from LHR nonstop. Not that I'd recommend such an ordeal unless it were, to remain on topic, to escape the coronavirus.

    459:

    Hey, I'm from Philly (mid-Atlantic), and we consider oatmeal, normally with milk, and either sugar, brown sugar, or honey, and maybe raisins cooked in, as a tasty breakfast.

    460:

    And does anyone want to argue that a virtual keyboard on a stupidphone is anything other than an abominably horrible kludge of an interface?

    Doesn't weigh much, though. But I recommend eg this keyboard if you want something that fits in a pocket, and can actually be typed on. (Assuming your fingers are the same size as mine.) Sold under various names. Unfolding it powers up the Bluetooth link.

    Oh, and I'm waiting for the clinical reports of a pandemic of carpal tunnel syndrome from texting.

    People have solved that by sending Real Short texts. Poetry and good writing were already dead anyway, sigh.

    461:

    There's tons of pressure to not kill your hosts faster than you can spread, though.

    If the plague kills everybody faster than some can stagger to the next village for help, providing new hosts, that variant goes extinct; it's out of hosts. There are some indications that greenfield measles may have been like that.

    462:

    So, the keyboard... and why not just carry a laptop?

    Besides, you really, really do not understand how I feel about texts, and the literal fear some people have about talking, rather than texting.

    463:

    re: Stocking up on foods

    Maybe I missed it but I was expecting half of the folks here to say they were going to buy crate-loads of kippers. Or is this one of those outdated cultural stereotypes?

    I usually have a few tins in the cupboard along with some tuna and salmon.

    464:

    the only cases tested are those serious enough to show up at a hospital

    The cost, for me, if I feel the need to go to a hospital: one single bus ticket. (The bus runs every 10-15 minutes from the stop across the street from my front door: takes 30-35 minutes to the shiny new Royal Infirmary.) Or, if I'm really ill, a phone call to request an ambulance.

    The cost in Italy, to J. Random Italian person, is not much higher; while there are co-pays in most of the EU, they're generally capped at a level that would make most Americans go WTF?!? (with, say, open heart surgery costing less than the co-pay for a family doctor visit in the US).

    So we can get a very much better idea of COVID-19 morbidity in the general population if we drop "not invented here" and look at other countries that don't artificially suppress demand for medical treatment.

    465:

    On the other hand, why not simply drop inheritance tax altogether?

    The amount of offence a tax on already-taxed assets causes is huge, and if you force people into weird and wonderful legal measures to dodge inheritance tax, all you end up doing is creating a new aristocratic class which lacks the traditional British exit clause of some inbred nitwit blowing all his inheritance on gambling.

    You have really to decide if you're going to use tax as a way to control the population (in which case, be very wary that you don't get the control turned back onto you), or merely as a way for government to get the money it needs to finance its self and its works.

    If the former, then you're well down the road to totalitarianism.

    If the latter, be careful you don't create a capitalist hell like the USA currently is turning into.

    The trick is to balance it. This is difficult.

    466:

    oatmeal, normally with milk, and either sugar, brown sugar, or honey, and maybe raisins cooked in, as a tasty breakfast

    And that (oatmeal, oat bran, [c]raisins, nuts, ground flax and such) can be made into very tasty oat bars or, with leavening, bread. A smear of cream cheese for taste when it's eaten is recommended.

    We're much into that kind of thing, as it's good, good for you, allows for control of what you're eating, and is fairly cheap per gram.

    467:

    I know about it, but $WIFE doesn't want to have anything to do with Boeing's Plastic Prodigy until it's racked up a good few tens of thousands of airframe-decades in service without fatal accidents due to delamination of the carbon fibre bits of the fuselage. (Airbus worked their way up to plastic planes in stages, and learned the hard way: Boeing did it in one giant leap, and ... we know about Boeing and quality management this century, don't we?)

    468:

    I think a first revision would be that they have to pass the same test that someone applying for US citizenship has to pass.

    Oh sure, as a fantasy and possibly an effective measure if you could implement it. The trouble with the citizenship test specifically in the USA is that it's a "pass one of the following" where one of the options is "do you have a lot of money".

    It's like my suggestion that any law that can't be explained by the lawmakers wanting to pass it, cannot be passed. Or better, any law that can't be explained by a current lawmaker is not valid.

    469:

    On the other hand, why not simply drop inheritance tax altogether?

    The inheritance tax did a very good job of chopping the family assets off the aristocratic upper class during/after WW2, which was really good for everybody else.

    It's no coincidence that Thatcher cut the rate of inheritance tax and the same titled nobs have been crawling back into power ever since.

    470:

    There's one word why: bones. I for one do not have the time to spend dissecting the wretched things out of the good kippers, and the so-called boneless ones tend to be a bit meh.

    Also, they stink the place out when you cook them.

    Best left to a hotel breakfast - yes, I was eating them most days in Ireland this summer. It did help we were staying at a non-chain hotel.

    471:

    My personal, only mildly impractical, version of that is to have all laws sunset themselves in at most 20 years; the bigger the margin on the vote, the longer the sunset period is (with the shortest being the expected lifetime of the elected body, for marginal victories, so 5 years in the UK with the FTPA, 4 years in the USA).

    Needs press help, too, so that lawmakers shoulder the blame if (e.g.) they forget to renew something like murder laws.

    472:

    whitroth @ 452 As "the boss" says ... she commutes from a medieval village, across the nature-reseve/flood-plain to the Roman city. Dirk simply does not grok it at all .....

    @ 454 Ah, but now you can get largish clamshell, with a real actual keyboard - that can be used as a phone without opening it ... { Charlie & I both have one ... )

    DonL Poetry will never die

    Madeleine WHat I like & are now almost completely impossible to get, are ... Bloaters Much nicer than Kippers.

    Inheritance Tax Agree that some powerful "families" were shits ... but they have been replaced by - - powerful corporations, controlled by some real A-grade arseholes Which is probably worse. (maybe) Now what?

    473:

    Kind of outdated, yes. There aren't any herrings any more. We've eaten them all.

    Cooked breakfasts are also pretty rare these days. They take too long. Nearly all the people for whom I have any data seem to be out of the house between 15 and 30 minutes after getting out of bed. (Makes me scream to think of it, since I need two hours at least drinking tea and getting ready to face the horror.)

    And, as Madeleine says, bones. Shitloads of tough spiky bones and the flesh sticks to them instead of falling off. They're not tasty enough to be worth the hassle.

    And refrigeration technology is cheap and easy these days.

    474:

    I do have time to do a cooked breakfast weekdays - but 5 am is far too early for me to eat. Besides, I'm still half-asleep for the next hour, then it's get the packed lunch together, get the dishwasher going, get washed and dressed and on the road in enough time to catch the 07:41 without freezing my backside off hanging around on the platform.

    So my usual breakfast is 3-4 slices of a fruit loaf eaten at the office when I get in just before 9. I sometimes take a pot of porridge in an insulated container on the train, even rarer I might do a bacon sandwich in the container but I have to remember to get the bacon out of the freezer the night before (and remember to get pitta bread in the weekly shop).

    476:

    Quite. The alternatives are either carrying a kit of parts to assemble a laptop on the fly, which is daft, or something which is inherently and unavoidably shit because it is too fucking small. And in both those cases you have to use a computation module, an OS, and application software, which all have evil built in by design and require unfeasible effort to get rid of it.

    "Terrified of talking", though, I can't agree (though you do seem to be concerned with people who can do it but don't, as opposed to don't because can't). My ears are fine, but the software for translating between language and meaning is up the creek. So either I communicate with people face to face, or I do it in writing, non-interactively. A telephone has me confused to all fuck within a very few sentences, a speech programme on the radio is just a long-drawn-out annoying noise, and an English TV programme is vastly easier to follow by turning the subtitles on and the sound off.

    477:

    Didn't you used to be able to get Shippam's Bloater Paste? Mind you, I always liked the Anchovy Paste (which got discontinued some years ago). Trouble is, people these days don't like gamey foods much these days, and things like that are a bit of an acquired taste. (Hmm, I'll have to look out for Patum Peperium next time I'm in Waitrose - I try and avoid the place because I don't want to get used to shopping there on a routine basis.)

    478:

    The inheritance tax did a very good job of chopping the family assets off the aristocratic upper class during/after WW2, which was really good for everybody else.

    Although it's a major reason for Cornish coastal villages being 80% empty during the winter months. The locals couldn't afford to buy so the estates were forced to sell to second/holiday homers to cover the death duties.

    479:

    Or, at least, to be told it was. Hehe.

    480:

    And worse. It destroyed the rural communities that were built around a manor or similar, especially following WW I, and all but eliminated the yeoman farmers. Both of those were a major factor in farms being taken over by absentee companies, the move to industrial farming, and the demise of mixed farming, the near-total destruction of (for example) chalk downland, and more.

    But who gives a fuck about peasants and the ecology?

    481:

    Both Air Canada and Air New Zealand have nonstops from Vancouver to Auckland. But I can't find any nonstops from Edinburgh to Vancouver.

    482:

    Guess you'll need to wait until Qantas delivers on Project Sunrise then. They've picked the A350-1000 with an extra fuel tank. However, they were planning on making the final aircraft order this month. Who knows what has happened to that plan. Qantas' latest announcement

    483:

    Qantas preferred aircraft for the AU east coast to London/New York direct is the A350-1000 with an extra fuel tank and increased MTOW. AIUI this is technically NOT the ULR variant which is really just a -900 that utilises existing but unused fuel tank space.

    484:

    I get the historical interest bit. Indeed, a current project is to develop the ability to look at my own local city as it is now and see it as it was a hundred years ago, before the Mayor started driving his tank through it. I can report a little early success... but the time spent on fieldwork is severely limited by the density of the crowds, which does my fucking head in. And that is the fundamental problem with cities in general.

    I'm afraid it has to be said that London is a shithole... maximal crowds, and look away from the bright lights and glitz and there is unspeakable filth lurking in every corner and crevice. But then it is also true that I spent three years of my youth being programmed, by association, to despise the very name of the place and its hair and guts and everything about it... with the sole exception of the Underground, which is ace, and all the other railway interest.

    485:

    The annual SXSW conference in Austin, Texas, scheduled for March 13 to 22, are still on (as of today).

    However, there is an online petition asking SXSW to cancel this year's event, as of Thursday afternoon, there are more than 50,000 signatures. Many American, Asian and European musicians and institutions have already canceled tours or postponed other activities due to COVID-19 concerns. And many tech and media companies have decided to withdraw from SXSW this year include Facebook, Twitter, Intel, Vevo, Mashable, Amazon Studios, TikTok, Netflix and WarnerMedia.

    486:

    Same thing happened in the US, after the Republican'ts started referring to it as a "death tax" with the implication that it would take away everything. It only applied to estates with a value over $5million in personal assets to start with - and if you have enough heirs that that's going to be a problem, you need better estate planning.

    487:

    Hell, no. Back in the nineties, I heard the last living member of FDR's cabinet, and he said, in so many words, that it wasn't so much to raise tax money as to prevent a class of inherited wealth.

    488:

    Quite. There's something Pyrrhic about claiming a victory in class warfare for grabbing the assets off the aristos when you then don't bother with the "redistribution" bit but instead allow the assets to be taken over by plain capitalists, who see them as something to be exploited immediately rather than maintained for future generations, and have arisen through a selection process that tends to favour arseholes. It was really good for somebody else, but I remain to be convinced that it was the proletariat.

    489:

    That's ludicrous. You want laws against murder, or rape, or.... to sunset?

    490:

    I need at least 90 minutes to get from bed to fully-functional. When I was working, and had to leave by 6am to catch my train, it meant getting up far earlier than I wanted; I didn't normally do hot breakfast, but could if necessary (about 10 minutes, maximum). If I was really in a hurry, breakfast was a sandwich (probably PB & honey).

    I've done egg tea a couple of times, when I had 10 minutes: make the tea, and while it's brewing, beat an egg with a couple of tablespoons of sugar (preferably in a paper cup, so you can toss it). Pour the still-very-hot tea onto the beaten eggs. I found it was especially good with a spiced tea: something like eggnog but with caffeine instead of alcohol. The egg flavor isn't a problem until it's getting cold. (Recipe from Sir Kenelm Digby, circa 1650)

    491:

    "Clamshell" - is that some sort of Apple thing?

    I will not give them one penny.

    492:

    So when someone with a southern accent uses a word like "Yankee" or "Yankeeland" he gets kind of a sideways look. "Ignorant Yankee" is an ignorant phrase.

    From The Devil's Dictionary, by Ambrose Bierce:

    YANKEE

    -n.

    In Europe, an American. In the Northern States of our Union, a New Englander. In the Southern States the word is unknown. (See DAMNYANK.)

    493:

    I don't do cooked breakfasts - well, I didn't when I was working, except for weekends. Weekdays, cereal and juice, and good tea when I got to work.

    494:

    And many tech and media companies have decided to withdraw from SXSW this year include Facebook, Twitter, Intel, Vevo, Mashable, Amazon Studios, TikTok, Netflix and WarnerMedia.

    A tech conference that I'd paid for in Miami at the end of the month just announced they are cancelling and will be refunding my money. I'm glad I had not yet booked airfare or hotels.

    495:

    In the late 1980s, before the complete collapse of the Soviet Union, my brother-in-law installed software upgrades on the systems in the command-and-control bunkers the US operated in Europe. He had to carry things into the bunker in order to deliver the software. As I remember his stories, one medium, which had to be left in the room, and random strip searches on the way in and out. Additionally, the clearance for the job would have been cancelled if he failed to check in at a US military outpost or embassy/consul for more than 72 hours. He got the job when his predecessor missed that limit by a couple of hours. My sister said the 72-hour requirement made planning holidays more challenging.

    496:

    I have long thought that there are many flavors of “southern”. And ironically, all of my relatives in western Kentucky and even just over the river in Indiana consider themselves to be southern, and frequently mention it.

    As someone who grew up in FAR western Kentucky we thought we were from the south. Till we visited Memphis or Mississippi and couldn't understand anyone talking.

    KY has 3 major zones of culture. Anyone who says it is all the same is looking out the window from 50,000 feet. The eastern end of the state was in many ways as foreign to us from the western end as Mexico. And the 5 years I spend in the middle were like another land from the western end.

    Pennsylvania is very similar at least in terms of there being 3 major zones of culture.

    As to what is a Yankee, it is someone from the northern / eastern areas who is rude and proud of it. And they like to sell their inflated housing and move to our cheaper areas and then be loud and crude a lot. The ones that are polite are NOT called Yankee.

    497:

    "Clamshell" - is that some sort of Apple thing?

    No: it's one of these.

    498:

    Link broken. [[ now fixed - mod ]]

    499:

    Tinky Winky 2, Simon Barnes, died of hypothermia in Liverpool in 2018. He was 52.

    The actor was the replacement for the original Teletubby, Dave Thompson, removed after the first series because his interpretation of the role was unacceptable. It was rumoured that Tinky Winky had been deemed too camp.

    Tinky Winky was purple. He had the triangular antenna on his head.

    If the current media predictions are accurate, it shouldn't be long before someone vaguely famous is revealed to be suffering from superflu? 'And Darkness and Decay and the Red Death held illimitable dominion over all.'

    500:

    Because one of the drugs currently being tested and showing some promise for Covid-19 was originally developed for Ebola, I looked to see if there was anything around that described the condition from the patient's perspective yet was medically reliable and complete. Found this FDA branded interview that runs 1:35:08. I'm about two-thirds through.

    A few people asked about transmissibility, i.e., when, how long, via what pathways, which organs, etc. If Covid-19 is transmissible in the same way as Ebola, then your blood can test clean of virus but you might still have loads of it in other parts of your body (testes, eyeballs, etc.) for several more months. (According to Dr Crozier, these are 'preferential organs' in terms of blood circulation: they're better protected than other parts of your body.) I feel that this info ties in with the article that Charlie posted about Covid-19 brain stem damage.

    I'm guessing the Chinese performed thorough autopsies - hope they looked at more than lungs and brain stem. And that they check for virus in sperm.

    Here's the video and description:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi29GJZllts

    'Ebola Survivor - Dr. Ian Crozier (Sept 2015)

    Dr. Ian Crozier contracted Ebola in Sierra Leone while treating Ebola patients in the government hospital in Kenema as a volunteer for the World health Organization. He was evacuated to Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, Georgia on Sept. 9, 2014, the third American with Ebola to be airlifted there from West Africa. He spent an agonizing 40 days in the hospital before finally recovering. Less than two months later, he developed soaring pressure in his left eye, with nausea and headaches. Test results were completely unexpected: the inside of his left eye was teeming with Ebola. Dr. Crozier, who also suffers from hearing loss, joint and muscle pain, disabling fatigue, problems with memory loss and word-finding, calls himself a poster child for “post-Ebola syndrome”. He describes his experience in great detail in this lengthy interview, which is segmented by questions on the screen. The interview was conducted by the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) at the FDA TV Studio in Maryland in May 2015.'

    501:

    Anywhere near Owensboro?

    The only time I ever heard anyone use the term "Yankee" was in reference to houses with basements, which my dad calls "Yankee houses".

    502:

    Owensboro was 1 1/2 or more hours east. :)

    I grew up outside of Paducah. Across the river from Superman's home.

    503:

    Thanks.

    My bleach doesn't have an expiry date on it, but I know I bought it 5-10 years ago so I'm guessing it's nowhere near as effective as it should be. Time to hope there's been no run on bleach…

    504:

    Wren-Lewis also worries about the self-employed in our gig economy, who might not stop working and self-isolate.

    So he's an optimist, then? Because from my experience there's no might about it — they'll keep working until they can't.

    505:

    Because from my experience there's no might about it — they'll keep working until they can't. No work, no pay. Most work at an hourly rate is like that.

    For Dirk (video at twitter link):

    This is absolutely horrifying.
    Rick Santelli on @CNBC says we should consider giving coronavirus to everybody to just get it over with.
    That way it won’t wreak so much havoc on the economy.
    This is your brain on capitalism.pic.twitter.com/Uv5UYyKtxy

    — Joshua Potash (@JoshuaPotash) March 5, 2020

    One problem is that his assertion about mortality rates is just wrong. A slower pandemic might end up killing substantially fewer people than trading it for instant death (OK 3-week death) for 3 percent of the world population, because (1) peak load on the healthcare system (for e.g. oxygen) might be reduced to below its capacity, (2) antiviral regimes might be developed and distributed that make serious cases more survivable. Another is that a utilitarianism that maximizes short term global GDP is difficult to justify.

    506:

    That one of the pricipal "reasons" for the US "revolution" was that farseeing people understood the long-term implications of the Mansfield Decision ... that Britain was going to abolish slavery, not too far in the future ... so lets rebel, right now, so we can carry on ...

    A book that's on my list is The Counter-Revolution of 1776 by Gerald Horne.

    "The so-called Revolutionary War, Horne writes, was in part a counter-revolution, a conservative movement that the founding fathers fought in order to preserve their right to enslave others."

    507:

    "Je suis le Rire. Salut! Mais pas n'importe lequel: celui qui apparait quand tout va mal... C'est la nuit plenie d'orties. Pres des ruines, meles aux tessons, leurs buissons etaient ma cruaute, ma mechancete hypocrite que je gardais, une main derriere mon dos pour blesser le monde... Dans leurs feuilles je trempais mes mains delicates: la cigue ne m'aurait pas glaces les veines. Ce qui est mechant dans le monde vegetal m'etait gagne"[0]

    For Greg et al:

    The mother...: (to the Moon): I'm Laughter. Hi! Not the usual kind, but laughter that appears when all goes wrong. It's the night full of nettles... Near ruins, tangled with shards, their bushes were my cruelty, my hypocritical wickedness that I kept, with one hand behind my back to hurt the world... In their leaves I steeped my delicate hands: hemlock would not have frozen my veins. Everything wicked in the vegetable world was won over to me.

    Genet - The Screens

    Anyhow, we could do a long discourse post and so on, but feeling a little ragged. Some things playing too smart, forgot that glamour doesn't quite translate to fucking humans, did it "MATE". Let's just say the last time we were male with those outlines was when Stoker was writing Frankenstein[1].

    Here's a Counter-Factual for Dirk:

    Imagine a world where the WeWork IPO went sailing through and CN offices got splurged[2] on the through-flow cash bonanza[3] and all those little 'entrepreneurs' scuttling after their little dinky awards[4] went from there to Dubai to Seattle and royally spread COVID[5]19 over the entire of the 'eloi' set, would have hit all those sugar daddies and Royal Dames as well.

    Fucking grep my balls and clinch my pincers you'd be living in a different time-line.

    Ruff Ruff.

    ~

    Anyhow, bored. Someone call your dogs off before we break their Minds. Clever?

    grep: WeWork - COVID stuff and you're working tainted Bell-Rings from stuff you didn't even start while running Ramp and Clamp psychosis shite.

    Amateurs

    Fucking glamour, and you thought you were being clever.

    "Bet you a quid, mate"

    "Six coins in the hand, two for each eye, send your three past the Styx well paid"[6]

    [0] If you can work out why that quotation is without French grammar, well done. Blame GooogleBoooks, no-one allowing the original online or having to type this on a non-qwerty kb so who knows where the shortcuts are. Suffice to say: Google only produces one result for it, which is shocking. And also the joke. Memory-holed those protests to Algeria have been, quite successful.

    [1] Predictable. You're predictable. This is a death sentence in this modern AI world.

    [2] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Startups/WeWork-halts-China-expansion-as-it-struggles-to-fill-offices

    https://www.ft.com/content/b5104854-f6ac-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654

    [3] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/hsbc-london-office-evacuated-coronavirus-a4379396.html

    [4] https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/02/20/tony-blair-labour-refuse-sign-trans-rights-pledge-culture-war/

    [5] Yes. We did the Raven joke before the name was officially released. Fucking sue us.

    [6] Here's one for Bill: dig up when we did that reference and note the name gone missing. Felicity was the one after. Textual Missing --- always look for the... Gaps. Week before, posts gone tooootling.

    ~

    No, but really. [6].

    The quote that's missing is something like: "We can hack the tripartite Minds as well".

    508:

    My grandfather was from northeastern KY - there are still a fair number of distant cousins there, though many moved out. My grandfather (and his father and two of his sisters) left between 1900 and 1905, moving west to Kansas and then Oklahoma.

    509:

    Oh, and Warren is out, as is Bloomberg.

    The USA people [non-oligarchs] are completely fucked if they run Biden vrs Trump.

    Hands up who noticed Bloomberg did that to give Biden a boost but also to ramp stocks up for a certain sector[1]? Hint: everyone, including the Hipster_Trader and Stock Cats which is kinda only a couple of levels up from Reddit WallstBets.

    Spend $500 mil getting Samoa? No, he spent that to shore up FLoRiDA (ahem, mentioned before, Scott and the Mysterons) and the Health Industry.

    Bloomberg and Warren are both Republicans anyhow. Beats the other Dems just running ex-Spooks we suppose. No, really: Bloomberg has never been a Democrat. Never run on that side. 2020 - did everyone forget?

    ~

    But, for Withro and co: IL elections, Bibi is stuck on 58, and the unmentionables polled 12-13%. And remember kids: you only need 10% for societal change, so IL still has a chance at sanity for 2020-30 catastrofuckey world. So, hanging in there, Messiah approaching or not[2].

    [1] Didn't last. -1k again. REPO MARKETS. Told you it was a stress test. Blueuergy¬!

    [2] Do the work: predestination of him as last incarnate before arrival has unfortunate over-tones when it actually means IL spends the next 2k+ years in constant elections. Yes, this is a Talmud / Jewish joke, quite funny though.

    510:

    Oh, and Bill.

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1235130299136253952

    For this response:

    don’t think you understand that the rules no longer apply. This is going to get dirty, bloody, and evil very fast. Trump cannot give up power because he, and his whole family, go to jail. Forever.

    https://twitter.com/zakhalwe/status/1235131299930701824

    No, none of the cluster fucking muppets do realize this. Which is why Warren quitting is putting them into care-bear safe space land rather than the required "Mother Protecting Cubs" land it needs to.

    Y'all should check out Turkey and RU and Hafar and so on. You know, if you want to run spread reality bets against us.

    Three Sisters

    Cute.

    ~

    More than 80% of Indian Ocean dolphins killed

    https://tbsnews.net/environment/more-80-indian-ocean-dolphins-killed-50941

    do the grep: we mentioned sharks, same deal.

    ~

    Oh, and greg: if you want to annoy Dirk, ask him who/what/why burnt down his Xian refuge.

    511:

    No, actually try to find that post, we remember it distinctly.

    Hacking Three Minds.

    The Singing Ones come in Pairs.

    They always work in threes[0].

    "Bet you a quid" the female[1] one said.

    We did [redacted]. They did [redacted].

    And pretty sure we posted about hacking their brains with a rainbow. Preeety sure we did[2].

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQpfa9RZbTk

    Don't worry if it isn't in the records.

    Stuff like that tends to... vanish.

    [0] And, if you want to get kinky, look up Iceland and three men in a bar, UK salesmen speaking a dead language not heard for 3k+ years just to tie it all into something your brain cannot process.

    [1] Not actually female or human, thus the term. Not a TERF, this is shit running nasty wetware on slaved corpses, not fucking joking "MATE".

    [2] We know we did. Which is why the £6 joke makes sense when we made it. Styx "MATE", Banishment.

    512:

    [No, Really]

    This is a bit esoteric, but it's a Spa/Temp Memory ~Fix with repercussions 'cause these fuckers are not playing around no more, they got that "10+ million dead is a feast" vibe going on right now.

    Six Gold Coins in the Right Hand and a black sky with a Rainbow in it. While you tortured a [redacted] and claimed zer soul [rescinded / not theirs / shared suffering].

    Styx "MATE".

    ~

    Fucking Warren and Bloomberg though. How fucking virally infected are you not to notice that shit?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7dizLdsZJw

    513:

    Yes, and now you know why we [SEAGULL] warned a nice collective of old men about it before it happened. Mother Hen and all that, tweak your cheeks and remind you that you're all loved, no matter how you are by modern kids.

    Wooden spoons and tweaked ears, it's all been ironic.

    Anyhow.

    HEXAD.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZBRrYEGET8

    Remember kids.

    "Kill Zer"

    Ask me sometime about how men promising eight years of female slavery caused all of this.

    Ask us again what failing to kill us / inner voice / DMT light zone is gonna do to all your fucking contracts.

    And they've got 10 more months for shit to get really wild before, well. Let's just say:

    We know you cheated. We know how you did it. We can spot you in the wild. We can see you in REAL TIME[tm].

    Your lists don't mean shit from now on.

    ~

    "Jackpot"

    514:

    My grandfather was from northeastern KY - there are still a fair number of distant cousins there, though many moved out. My grandfather (and his father and two of his sisters) left between 1900 and 1905, moving west to Kansas and then Oklahoma.

    Eastern Kentucky has been, for most people there, a sucky place to live for 200 years or so. And before that only so so. Mineral rights to nearly every square inch of land that were sold off in the 1800s, opioids, bad shine, and total grinding poverty. To start with.

    But in sort of a Stockholm Syndrome the people from there who don't leave are fiercely proud of the area. For few reasons outsiders can see.

    I'm happy for you that your ancestors got out.

    515:

    Immortalized in song

    https://youtu.be/neSUe7dO4v0

    I also grew up in Kentucky funnily enough

    516:

    Since you asked, perhaps this: Turns out we can hack the fucking [redacted] as well, which is... interesting. Semantically close, to my mind at least. Which I will reread(+etc) in context with today's comments. (Good to hear from you.)

    517:

    Yep. That captures the mood.

    518:

    Madeleine 07.41, huh? So you are almost-certainly starting "outside the zones", given that you say 09.00 later ... though that could easily include a tube "hop" Unlike the two termini in London, where it is reckoned (from surveys) that over 85% of incoming passengers walk to theor final destination. [ LST & CST respectively ] ...

    I came across Shipphams Crab paste again, recently (Waitrose) ... but Waitrose are no more expensive than Sainsbugs on many items ... but they have lost the fffing plot. Can't get Anchovy Essence any more & their nice vermouth (Dolin) is extremely erratic in supply ... but you can get them all from "Ocado" - or so it says in the online advertising ... grrr .... And yes, the do "PP" - I've got a pot in the fridge. Agree entirely about the flight towards blandification of flavours.

    EC Yes. The "estates" had a single owner who could be complained to, or pressured ... and, usually ( As always, there were bad exceptions ) peole there eat better (Home-grown estate food) & lived longer - especially notablle in the mic C19th See also Pigeon @ 488 Coprorations never (or almost never) take the long view

    Pigeon So, you obviously don't live in Lodon / It's ALWAYS had both the bright lights & the squalor - it's a big city. My other favoutites in the UK, Cardiff / Mnchester / Edinburgh are exactly the same in that respect. Why/how were you "programmed" ("three years of my youth") to despise the "FLower of Cities All" then?

    whitroth @ 491 Not ffffing likely "Planet Computers LINK" - a revived form of the Psion - same people , I think. I got mine for £200 off, by pre-ordering ... AND CHarlie's link to the same thing appears to be borked, oops.

    Disasters IF the Dems are stupid enough to pick Biden, because Sanders is a "socialist" ( He isn't he's an SD ) then DT will walk all over him - it'll be a replay of "crooked Hilary" all over again, with Ukraine in the frame. I agree with the Culture-named Twitter-poster, Zakalwe - he(?) is correct

    Oh yes Maybe a problem with semi-fundamental constants and "Dark Matter" too ....

    519:

    Singapore Airlines flies Singapore to Wellington via Melbourne.
    So it is not non-stop - but there is no worry about connecting flights or etc as it is the one plane all the way.

    But if you are coming a week early, you can fly direct to Auckland or Christchurch.

    520:

    If your elected representatives don't consider them worth renewing, then yes.

    In practice, I would hope that elected representatives would recognise that voting against the renewal of laws criminalising such heinous crimes is a one-way ticket to being unelectable, and thus they would be renewed for 20 years at a time with time to spare before they sunsetted.

    The idea is to keep government focused on the things that matter, and take away time they might use for foolish ideas because it's needed for renewing important laws. As a side benefit, panic legislation that is no longer applicable gets dropped after at most 20 years (and for stuff that's marginal, maybe even within 5 years).

    Like I said, it's not entirely practical, but it's an interesting thought experiment.

    521:

    Yup, 07:10-07:15 leave the house to drive to the station (30 minutes is plenty to get there and park - traffic can be variable depending on the state of the A14), 07:41 train leaves, 08:37 (theoretically) at Finsbury Park Platform 2, walk across platform for 08:39 to Moorgate from Platform 1 (if I can squeeze on), 2 stops to Highbury & Islington, 5 minute walk to office. I avoid using the Victoria Line from Finsbury as it's overcrowded.

    All on my annual season ticket (Zone 2) which costs the same (too much!) whether I travel to Finsbury Park or Highbury & Islington. To travel into central London would cost an extra grand a year or something ridiculous like that, so I just pay the extra as and when I need it - my ticket is on a smart card so I get charged automatically. If there's issues, I get let through at King's Cross - off the train, onto the Underground.

    And before you ask, there is a bus from home to the station but it would add at least an hour to my already long day - 10 mins to bus stop, variable time to wait, 40-50 minutes to the station because it goes all round the houses first... And on the way home, I would have to wait nearly an hour for the bus unless I shift my day significantly. Plus it's almost as expensive as driving and parking.

    At least I only go in 3 days a week on average - officially Tue-Thu. I've been a bit erratic lately because of the training course and illness (myself and himself), but I try and go in at least 2 days even if I'm working at the Finsbury Park office.

    522:

    Boarding school. Created such a strong association between misery and geography that even now I still prefer travelling Down to Up even on routes that define it in terms of some other city.

    523:

    Medeleine So: Huntingdon ( x.11 &.x.41 up departures, says table 25 ) .... I used to pass through by road on my way to/from the fens to visit my grandmother....

    524:

    It'd take me a good half hour drive north to get to your station, given I'd have to cover the length of the A1198. We're London commuter territory — I used to be able to get to Victoria before 09:00 if I left home at about 07:30, back when — but I'd not have considered your station to be within sensible range.

    (Hmm, I just spotted a train that terminates at our station after starting in Brighton. Most odd - those usually continue through to Cambridge instead. But then Peterborough to Horsham is also not one I'd have anticipated.)

    525:

    "I see, Dirk is a suburban asshole who doen't understand cities," Well, let's see... After graduation I spent 13 years living in London, and for the past 13 years I have spend nearly all my time except weekends living in London again. Loughborough Junction to be precise. I work in London. I spend 2.5 hours a day on average commuting in London. I know London very well. It's a shithole.

    526:

    Royston?

    Yes, the Peterborough - Horsham service is the one I use. These ThamesLink services are all fairly new - I sometimes use the Cambridge-Brighton service on the way home (I can make the 17:09 and change at Stevenage if I leave the office early enough). I can't use it on the way to the office as the Great Northern services don't stop at Stevenage in the mornings, only on the way home. Besides, it's usually standing room only from Stevenage into London.

    We won't talk about the May 2018 timetable - it was still causing disruption in the autumn.

    527:

    What lies? I suggest you provide some proof or retract.

    528:

    If Covid-19 is transmissible in the same way as Ebola,

    Spoiler: it isn't.

    Ebola spp. are big-ass filoviruses that cross-infect victims by causing haemorrhagic fever -- the victims blood vessels rupture, and the virus particles in the blood are contagious.

    Coronaviruses are relatively small spherical membrane-encapsulated RNA viruses, not too different from influenza and the common cold. No haemorrhagic fever, much smaller particles.

    The only similarity with Ebola is that they're both scary killer viruses, i.e. it's purely a function of our social and psychological reaction to them.

    529:

    IF the Dems are stupid enough to pick Biden, because Sanders is a "socialist" ( He isn't he's an SD ) then DT will walk all over him - it'll be a replay of "crooked Hilary" all over again, with Ukraine in the frame.

    Greg Sorry but you have no idea what you are talking about.

    The US presidential election is about Electoral College votes. Good or bad it is what it is.

    Almost any D is going to carry California and New York. Plus about 15-20 other states. But it doesn't mater if they carry those states 51/49 or 90/10. NOT AT ALL.

    Same with an R candidate which just now is Trump. Only the states become Wyoming, Alabama, and similar.

    So what it comes down to are states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and all the rest that are close. And to be blunt in most of those states you are looking at 30-40% hard core D, 30-40% hard core R and a bunch in the middle. So the election comes down to less than 10 states and 20-30% of the voters in those states. And no matter how much the "left" in the US doesn't like it just now, at this moment in time, it looks like Biden will attract more of those in this middle group of voters in the possibly toss up states than Sanders.

    If you want to see the numbers visit these Wikipedia pages and scroll down to the state vote totals. Then click on the percentage sort for either the D or R candidates. Look at the states in the middle of the sort (where the colors change). That's where the election will be decided.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

    530:

    Are you referring to the Jesus Army? Bit sad about them folding, but for a commune/cult they had a good run (50 years). Still, hardly unexpected if you specialize in giving sanctuary to the mentally ill and generally fucked up.

    531:

    London no longer holds the same relationship to other cities that the titan arum does to other flowers, but my opinion of ALL conurbations is that they are ghastly, and the larger ones are ALL shitholes. And, no, I am not excluding Royston and Huntingdon.

    I just don't like people in mass :-)

    532:

    Correct, but my real objections were about the social and environmental (both ecological and other) destruction that it caused. Financial imbalances are easy to fix up later (if TPTB want to), but those cause long-term of almost irreparable damage to the commonweal.

    However, as I said, virtually nobody gives a damn about those, and the left-wing are as bad as the grasping monetarists.

    533:

    One problem is that his assertion about mortality rates is just wrong. A slower pandemic might end up killing substantially fewer people than trading it for instant death (OK 3-week death) for 3 percent of the world population, because (1) peak load on the healthcare system (for e.g. oxygen) might be reduced to below its capacity, ...

    The CMO for Health in England told Parliament that he estimated the true death rate in China to be c. 1%, allowing for undiagnosed cases. With an 50% infection (his mid-range guess), that's 300,000 dead in the UK. But he also estimated that 50% of the cases would occur in a 3-week period, and (my estimate, from Chinese figures) is that 6 times as many people need hospital treatment as die and (again, a wild guess) 50% of those will die if they don't get it. If the UK can't spread it out, that implies half a million to a million dead, because we have only 142,000 hospital places :-(

    I sincerely hope that he and others are leaning on Bozo and Halfcock to prepare for that - even if it means just hiring warehouses, and buying bedding, heaters and oxygen masks and cylinders.

    534:

    Yes indeed. Conveniently close to the Duxford Air Museum for those who like Concorde and TSR-2 and SR-71 and other interesting planes, and decently within range of Cambridge for when we want to go see something, but otherwise a small enough town that four of us can keep it claimed for the Enlightened most of the time1

    Also small enough that we can live within walking distance of pubs and restaurants.

    1Callout to @Vulch - we lost most of our P8s last weekend, so if you feel like popping over ...

    535:

    I have a preference for towns that are practical to cross by bike, with centres that are a reasonable size to get around on foot.

    London fails badly. Manchester is a bit too large. Places like Sheffield, Bristol and Leeds are kind of ok.

    Island with one shop, 10 people and a few sheep are ideal on a misanthropic day.

    I'm not going to insult londoners by calling their home a dump but I would rather do anything than live there.

    536:

    BTW, in the USA what happened to all those "FEMA Concentration Camps" the wingnuts were going on about a while back? Did they exist? Are they going to be useful? Will the wingnuts express gratitude?

    537:

    I'm in St Ives. We moved out of Cambridge nearly 5 years ago now. Himself uses the misguided bus to get into work (hence the early start because he has to get across Cambridge before it gridlocks in the morning). Until I got made redundant, I did too, but could leave a lot later as I didn't need to cross Cambridge.

    Now it's a London trip for me. I actually prefer the commute even though it's nearly twice as long as I can read on the train - I get travel sick if I try and do that on the bus...

    We're in Cambridge tomorrow for a games day. It's about the only time I go in now - I usually shop in Huntingdon if not St Ives.

    538:

    Reminder that the UK is big enough that London is effectively another country from where I live. The only sane way to do a day trip to anywhere in London is to fly, but you're looking at 7-8 hours of door-to-door travel time (and need a passport). A slightly less sane way is to catch the train -- 9 hours travel time, but I can go one way on the ECML and the other on the Scotrail Sleeper. Except the sleeper service is bumpy and impossible to actually sleep on and the new rolling stock apparently has Problems. So -- being outside day trip range -- any visit I make to London involves overnight stays and you know what London hotel prices are like.

    Seriously, from where I live, Paris, Amsterdam, and Berlin are nearly equidistant with London (Berlin is an extra hour in the air), and New York is only about 3 hours further away.

    539:

    Callout to @Vulch - we lost most of our P8s last weekend, so if you feel like popping over

    Have to see how First Saturday goes tomorrow, and I owe the Ely Smurfs a visit as well. I need a decent farming trip soon though as I'm over halfway through my strategic reserve due to a flipped Haymakers being hit by a tadpole who saw blue.

    541:

    Cambridge fails dismally on that, too, for other reasons than size. I am one of the many people who used to cycle everywhere (for 25 years), but had to give up when the 'improvements' made it too dangerous. That's not just perception, but measured risk, and the psychle farcilities are a major cause of it.

    542:

    I don't usually follow up on such conspiracy nuttery - there is far more interesting conspiracy stuff out there. But actually having such FEMA camps would make sense to house people during natural disasters or act as isolation hospitals for viral outbreaks.

    543:

    @Charles H @ 432: Sure, do whatever you like. The point is to reduce the inherited wealth and power. As our gracious host points out at 469, that is good for everyone. @withroth @ 436: Again, I'm not wedded to absolute specifics. And, as you point out, it needs to apply to all those little dodges that the law has created.

    @Dan H @ 465: It's not about controlling the population, it's about freeing the population from control of those who have the power (control over resources).

    @Elderly Cynic @ 480: So, the solution is to give the land to those people who actually work it.

    - The whole system of tax and economy needs a complete overhaul, and made quite a lot simpler. None of this, you get a rebate if you have more than three windows in your house, because obviously your heating/cooling bills are high ... (Made up example.)

    For me it's a partial step on the road to eliminating capitalism (not "free markets", which don't exist and are a different thing regardless) and the control over resources beyond a reasonable level. It's not intended to be a step towards bigger government (already they pry into my life far more than I like thank you), a central economy, authoritarianism, or similar. I'm no Marxist, certainly no "social democrat" or similar. I'm much worse, and much more to the left.

    @Simon Farnsworth @ 471: That's not a bad idea, and I can't just remember where I first read it suggested. It's actually an idea that I would be happy to see become reality. It would reduce the stupidity of having laws around fifty years after they are not longer applicable.

    @whitroth @ 489: In any sensibly run place (so Utopia; no place, nowhere, currently) this would not be a problem. Say there is a law against murdering, and it expires after five years. After four years, the parliament gets together and passes the law to push it out for another five years.

    As for oats, I grew up eating rolled oats (rather than any sort of cut oats). I've never quite managed to replicate my father's method of making porridge, so now I just cook the oats for a minute or two in the microwave. It does the trick for me. I've even managed to wean myself off adding sugar, and just add dried grapes sometimes. I also chuck 'em in the bread (normally about 50g per 400g loaf). Turns out great.

    As for Yankees, I'm like a European, all the septics are yanks. (Yank -> septic tank -> septic ...) ;)

    And I think I'll have to bow out of commentating any more, as the discussion is progressing too fast when I'm not looking.

    544:

    The problem isn't that Sanders is a "socialist", but rather that he exhibits many of the problems of Corbyn (like the cult of supporters) that likely make him just as unelectable as Corbyn was in December.

    545:

    You might just have missed the really vicious right-wing smear campaign against Corbyn, running in parallel with the whole "Labour anti-semitism" shtick (reality calling: the Tories have a much worse endemic racism problem). What Corbyn did to himself was to swither over Brexit, at the worst possible time. If he'd come down firmly on the anti- side of the fence and announced a big regeneration program for the North he might have been able to hold the Red Wall and claw back votes in other constituencies. But it's all water under the bridge now.

    Bernie's real problem is that he's an outsider, and the Democrat party machine has the knives out because he's an existential threaten to their MO (which is to be the good cop to the Republicans' bad cop on behalf of the neoliberal kleptocracy).

    546:

    That's distinctly shocking. In my mind it's a place where bicycles absolutely rule, through sheer weight of numbers, with a bit of help from roads that would be horrific for cars even if there were no bikes at all. And being small and flat as well, it's absolutely ideal for bikes. I can't imagine what could happen to it to make it otherwise short of something like belts of broken glass on the roads with machine gun posts covering them.

    547:

    No Dirk ... Loughboro' Jn is a shithole .... Herne Hill, however, is quite nice. Your comments on the city in which I have lived ( 3 years at Uni in Manchester as an interval) for 74 years are simply trolling bollocks.

    Charlie & mdive No Sanders appears to have his head screwed on, Corbyn ... not. He hasn't learnt one single thing since about 1973 ... & he refused to support defending ourseleves when a real, actual fascist militarist junta attacked (Falklands). As EC has hinted, previously .. & as a reminder ... he's a sincere "leaver": JUST LIKE BOZO ... he wants to smash the existing system completely - where they differ is that BOZO apparently wants to sell us to the R's & JC wants to construct a "socialist utopia" on the resulting wreckage. Lots of us want neither of these horrid things. See also Charlie's comments on the Brexi-subject ... which reinforces my previous comments about JC's utter, total 150% incompetence.

    548:

    How to spread a virus - or any disease ... make sure people working at a busy airport ( Or railway station) get it ... Theifrow in this case ...

    549:

    Oh yes Maybe a problem with semi-fundamental constants and "Dark Matter" too

    More directly relevant to the so-called "Hubble tension" and dark energy. About which see

    https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2020/03/how-good-is-evidence-for-dark-energy.html

    The comments provide a summary if, like me, you tend to be video-avoidant.

    550:

    Why is it that I should carry something so that someone who's TERRIFIED of speaking to another human being can text me, and expect instant answers, at all times of the day and night?

    No reason if you don't want to. Just like there's no reason I should cater to people who seem to think they have the right to interrupt me at any time for an arbitrarily long real-time voice communication. Different strokes for different folks, maybe. For what it's worth, my expectation with texts is that they're asynchronous, just like email. I'll get to it when I get to it, and if I send a person a text, I don't expect an instant reply.

    551:

    Bernie's real problem is that he's an outsider

    Another big problem that Bernie has: he's Jewish, and the US electorate contains enough people who are OK with electing a protestant male in his late 70s, but who are very much NOT OK with electing a Jewish male in his late 70s.

    When you look at Wikipedia's Religious affiliations of presidents of the United States, you will notice that there's 1 Catholic (John F. Kennedy), 4 Nontrinitarian, 1 Deist (Thomas Jefferson), 1 person who irregularly went to church (sometimes Methodist, sometimes Catholic) (Andrew Johnson) and Abraham Lincoln, who although he went to church every Sunday with his family, was considered by at least some of his friends to be an atheist.[1]

    Everybody else was a protestant of some stripe. I'm sure some had more genuine belief than others (I believe that Trump's God looks exactly like him, for example).

    Harry Turtledove's estimate was that a Jewish candidate would mean a loss of 2-3 million votes. No idea how accurate that is, but I have the feeling that he's not wrong.

    [1] A major part of Lincoln's Second Inaugural Address is that humans simply cannot know the Divine Will - highly unusual then (and now!) when people of all faiths seem to think that their own desires and prejudices are fully supported by their invisible friend.

    552:

    10:33 am - The delivery guys are supposed to be here some time between 10:30 and 12:30.

    553:

    icehawk @ 434: Isolation works. Isolation is where sick people stay home. That reduces infection rates by a lot.

    To make that work you need a functional network of home health-care workers who can come in to assist with care. Y'all may have that in the U.K., but it for damn sure don't exist here in the U.S.

    554:

    No, I am aware of the UK media's treatment of Corybn and Labour - but as said elsewhere by someone, that is the reality of the UK and any Labour (or other non-Conservative) leader who wishes to form a government needs to deal with it.

    And I posted on this site many times that Brexit was dooming Corbyn getting elected, so I agree with you on that.

    Yet despite that campaign many/most of the Labour policies polled well with the voters - the only thing about Labour that didn't poll well was Corbyn.

    Any Democrat Presidential candidate is going to face the same thing - constant attacks from Fox, Limbaugh, and many other (like all the Sinclair owned local stations). So just like Corbyn/Labour, the Democrats with either Sanders or Biden need to be able to survive the attacks - though a well chosen VP candidate can help.

    And while it is correct that too much of the Democratic Party leadership has been bought out by Wall Street, their hatred of Sanders isn't his biggest problem.

    His biggest problems are that many of his supporters are about as popular as Momentum is in the wider Labour Party, and that he isn't as popular with voters as many think he should be.

    In addition to the lack of success in general on Super Tuesday, Warren was done in by the simple fact that she couldn't even win her home state of Massachusetts. But while Sanders took Vermont, it was a "barely" with 50.8% of the vote. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

    But as said above, much of the primaries is window dressing - the fact that Sanders won California matters little because a) the delegates get split so he didn't take them all and b) far more importantly California will vote Democrat for President regardless.

    Just as a hostile right wing media is something that any winner will need to deal with, they also need to deal with the realities of the undemocratic Electoral College and the realities that places on winning.

    One of those states is Michigan, and Sanders is looking to lose in Michigan next week - and Michigan is one of those states the Democrats need to try and take from Trump if they want it win the White House.

    But then there is also the issue that, while important, winning the Presidency is only a start. To be able to achieve anything the Democrats also need to make significant gains in the undemocratic Senate - and that will be easier but still difficult with Biden, but likely impossible with Sanders.

    555:

    Several stories about the infected baggage handlers say something along the lines of:

    "Baggage handlers ..... do not generally have any interaction with passengers."

    Hello fomites. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fomite

    The question is - did they get it from handling baggage? How many people's bags could have virus on the handles now?

    556:

    QUestion: At what point (percentage) of the population does isloation become futile? When isolating, say 20% of the pop. actually causes more damage than letting them out, both economically-nationally & economiocally-individually. I realise that the higher the fatality-rate then cut-off point will also be proprtionately higer, too. Anyone got any respectable numbers on that delicate balance?

    557:

    colortheorytoo @ 435: Ah yes, I remember hearing about that book and it look interesting. I have long thought that there are many flavors of “southern”. And ironically, all of my relatives in western Kentucky and even just over the river in Indiana consider themselves to be southern, and frequently mention it. There is also what seems to be a somewhat distinct culture along that part of the Ohio River (ask me about “burgoo” sometime!) My family was entirely German-speaking from arrival in Virginia in the late 1600s until World War I—maybe the book covers that as well. If we’re splitting hairs, I would describe them as a blend of Midwestern/Southern, but I’m no expert. Thanks for the book recommendation, I’ll put it on my list!

    And now I must drag my distractable ADHD self back to finishing my disaster preparedness shopping and hopefully making some art.

    My Mom's family hails from Fredonia, KY. Her family are displaced Scot-Irish lowlanders. I'm pretty sure David L. has mentioned his family is from Paducah,KY (or he grew up there anyway). [If I got it wrong, correct me.]

    On my Father's side, we're from "Tidewater", with an ancestor who arrived in Jamestown in 1664. That's late enough in the 17th Century we don't get to claim membership in the "Order of the First Families of Virginia" (missed it by about 40 years).

    I'm 11th generation American (counting the ancestor as generation zero). There's not going to be a 12th generation from this branch of the family tree, but there are plenty of other branches, so I'm not worried. The name will go on even if I don't.

    558:

    Oh dear, upon perusing the news in California this morning I fear that we are heading into worst-case territory with the virus. Still not letting people test.The state has the fifth largest economy in the world; couldn’t we just order a bunch of the WHO test kits?

    In other news, my husband, who is a microbiologist, joked about starting a guerilla testing lab at his university, if he can find a colleague with a lab with the proper containment. Last night it we laughed; this morning it’s more like...hmm...is anyone in charge?

    559:

    @457: But oddly, there aren't any Northerners/Yankees, outside of a few rural areas, and haven't been for over a century.

    Ahahahahaha! You don't appear to have traveled in New England, particularly outside of Boston. There are indeed still Yankees to be found.

    560:

    My paternal ancestors were mostly German with a sprinking of Dutch and English and moved from Virginia to Kentucky to just the other side of the river*; my family name lives on too though no thanks to me. Maternal side arrived in Iowa in mid 1800s courtesy of the potato famine in Ireland.

    *and yes, they insist on describing themselves as southern even though they were in a border town during the civil war.

    561:

    whitroth @ 436: The US used to have a 90% inheritance tax ("death tax"). I think it's now 40%.

    I object to calling it a "death tax". It's a loaded propaganda term meant to evoke an emotional response from people who are never going to be affected by it so they will support not taxing rich motherfuckers!

    The Federal Government has an Estate Tax (first $11.58 million exempt, 40% rate on the value above the exempt amount), paid FROM the Estate. Inheritance tax is a STATE tax on that portion of your income derived from an inheritance. Some states have an Estate Tax (9), some states have an inheritance tax (5), one State (Maryland) has both. The other 35 states tax neither.

    I favor making the Estate Tax a progressive tax keeping the current level of exemption (indexed for inflation - the exempt amount should go up at the same rate as the Social Security COLA), with the curve of the progression being exponential (so that REALLY, REALLY big estates get taxed at 100% above a certain level). EG: the first $10 million over the exempt amount gets taxed at 20%; the next $20 million gets taxed at 30%; the next $40 million gets taxed at 40%; ... until anything above a billion dollars gets taxed 100%.

    ... and anything above $10 Billion dollars gets taxed 110%!

    562:

    @452: The heaviest support of Trumpolini is in the South

    Actually, the greatest support for El Cheeto Grande seems to be in rural areas, even though his trade policies (if whims can be called policies) have been terrible for them. Much of the longer form press coverage of the current political divide discusses a growing urban/rural split, as a lot of the current economic progress is in urban areas, and focused in a relatively small number of cities. The lack of economic opportunity is a significant motivation for rural populations to support The Current Occupant in his self-proclaimed role as Disruptor in Chief.

    The Electoral College amplifies this effect because rural populations have a disproportionate advantage there.

    Sadly, the attitudes you mention can be found as readily in rural Illinois, Iowa or Idaho as in the Deep South.

    563:

    The US presidential election is about Electoral College votes. Good or bad it is what it is.

    This. It simply cannot be underestimated how much the Electoral College, combined with the political geography of the country, warps U.S. politics.

    Were the president elected via national popular vote, Sanders would have a shot. As it stands, though, progressive voters are concentrated in too few states, specifically solid "Blue" states, to win the Electoral College. Going forward, progressives need to migrate out of their enclaves, re-colonize the rest of the country, and breed more progressives.

    All that said, IMO, Sanders has already made a difference. He's successfully stretched the Overton window in U.S. economic politics singificantly to the left, putting on the table ideas that have been verboten since at least the 1960s and, in some cases, the 1940s. Taking the long view, I think Sanders will end up being to the U.S. left what Barry Goldwater was to the U.S. right. He arose too soon to take power himself, but he planted a seed for the future. Just as Goldwater eventually begat Reagan, so, too, Sanders will eventually beget a future progressive leader.

    564:

    whitroth @ 450: "Protect GDP"? Given that GDP has no relation to the well-being of 99% of the population, screw it.

    But it is the number the PTB always trot out to "prove" what a great job they're doing with the economy.

    Oh, and "London is a shithole"? I see, Dirk is a suburban asshole who doen't understand cities, fears and hates them, but comes in to aggravate those of us who love cities, and make himself unwanted.

    Yeah, but I think even Charlie would agree that the cost of living/housing costs in London are out of whack.

    565:

    It's here. I'm going through the instructions now on how to unpack it, set it up and install it.

    I learned to set up & operate complex equipment in the Army. RTFM is always the first, mandatory step for any job like this.

    566:

    [Sanders] arose too soon to take power himself, but he planted a seed for the future.

    Hopefully so. Warren might also fall into that category. It will be interesting to see how much of their influence emerges from the DNC in July.

    567:

    whitroth @ 452: The heaviest support of Trumpolini is in the South, and it's SOUTHERN BLOODY BADTASTES and the heavy, heavy "funnymentalist literalist evangelicals" that are in the South.

    I, being of Jewish ancestry, and a socialist, am really nervous in much of the South, esp. the Deep South.

    You should probably be more nervous in the rural Midwest or Rocky Mountain states then. Those were the states that were strongest for Trumpolini. In the "south", his strength was only as good as the corrupt republicans could suppress Black & Hispanic voters. Which actually explains the rural Midwest & Rocky Mountain states to some extent because those regions have fewer non-white voters to begin with.

    Those "funnymentalist literalist evangelicals" LOVE Jews, 'cause y'all are supposed to go back to Israel and rebuild Solomon's Temple so you can have a nuclear war with Iran with the survivors converting to Jesus (or get ready to spend eternity in 773Ч) before he shows up again ... and he can't show up until y'all do. So they gotta be nice to ya in the meantime.

    568:

    hmm...is anyone in charge?

    Oh, someone's in charge, all right.

    Problem Zero -- the firmly-in-charge exist in a world where there are no facts, only spin.

    Problem One -- the facts are amorphous and statistical; we won't know the real numbers ever, though the future versions will be less incorrect.

    Problem Two -- the Cult of Mammon considers it a sin to give anyone anything "for free" -- without charging them the absolute upper limit of their willingness to pay -- ever, under any circumstances. Public health is an evil they've been castigating for decades.

    Problem Three -- someone is making a bet that COVID-19 can't get all that bad before the summer heat puts it into remission. This keeps it from being a major political issue during campaign season and avoids the "bad events hurt incumbents" problem.

    There's no evidence supporting either part of that bet; we don't know COVID-19 has heat-dependent transmission characteristics and we don't know that it can't get all that bad before the weather warms up.

    For R₀ between 2 and 3, doubling time is between two and three days. So say that we have a factor of four per week.

    If there were 10,000 cases in the US at the start of this week, there will be 40k on Sunday March 8th. There will be 160k on 15th, 640k on the 22nd, two and a half million on the 29th, ten million on the 5th of April, forty million on the 12th of April, a hundred and sixty million on the 19th and by the end of April everyone who can catch it has.

    It never goes like that; people start reacting. But we do see a two-week incubation period and an unclear pre-symptomatic infectious period and we really and truly do not know what the current US numbers are because the testing necessary to determine those numbers hasn't been done.

    In general, it's really really important to keep the size of the outbreak smaller than the rate you can test at, because otherwise it gets loose. The health care system can't react fast enough. What we're currently seeing looks a lot like COVID-19 is going to proceed as though the US has no public health system.

    569:

    Oh. Actually, cool.

    The web site, however, sucks dead syphilitic GOP roaches. There was just a thread on /. today (or maybe it was from yesterday), with the commentary about:

    Apparently, way too many modern software developers. Especially the ones who use a whole framework with extra libraries when a single line of Javascript could have done the job had they actually understood the job in the first place.

    Some are even worse. I have seen frameworks and javascript used to render static page

    But I see it boots Linux, and I assume you can connect a mic and speaker to it (as opposed to my flip phone, which has both in the correct location, and I don't need additional crap).

    I may have to consider it, given that what I take to cons is my 2009 HP Netbook that was a promotional item given by AT&T for signing up with them when I relocated into DC from Chicago (!!! a phone company, giving promotional items?!?!?!)

    570:

    Dunno which, but the funnymentalists in the US were convinced the purple one was gay.

    571:

    So, where else do you build your model train layout, unless you've got a multi-car garage and can leave one slot open?

    And what do you call my bloody split-level, with a half a basement (the rest being slab).

    572:

    Definitely in the over-300 regime, but I just came across this and thought it might be useful for world-building for those wanting to build worlds.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/mud-wasps-are-helping-date-indigenous-rock-art-in-western-australia/

    573:

    Warren: no fucking shit. We were supporting her, as were a lot of folks I know.

    No, she's not a Republican... unless you mean in the way the French use it. If anything, she would have been like FDR, saving capitalism from itself.

    ObDisclosure: my recent ex, who's a lawyer, and specialized in corporate bankruptcy, studied under her.

    574:

    You really haven't begun to actually think about what this means. It's like a flat tax - sounds great, less filling. Bull.

  • The whole idea that "ignorance of the law is no excuse" is bs, and has been for at least a century. There wouldn't be enough hours in the day for them to renew all the laws every time one ran out.
  • Why are some laws not good enough to leave on the books?
  • Do you have any idea how many, and complex, the laws are on taxes, corporations, IP, etc, etc, etc.
  • No, we can't simplify all of them so that any fourth-year high schooler can learn them all.
  • 575:

    So you lived there, but apparently didn't grow up in one. Just because you live there does not mean you understand them.

    576:

    DonL @ 457:

    I have long thought that there are many flavors of “southern”.

    But oddly, there aren't any Northerners/Yankees, outside of a few rural areas, and haven't been for over a century. Certainly none of my ancestors emigrated from Europe in time for the US Civil War, and pretty well everyone who lives in Boston/NY/etc would say the same. (Italians? Puerto Ricans? Poles?) The Civil War is mostly just another thing you study in high school. So when someone with a southern accent uses a word like "Yankee" or "Yankeeland" he gets kind of a sideways look. "Ignorant Yankee" is an ignorant phrase.

    There are as many flavors of "Yankee" as there flavors of "southern". Maybe you hadn't noticed that immigrants have settled all over the USA, North AND South, East and West. We're all descended from immigrants even if a few of mine took the long way around to get here a bit sooner (15,000 or so years ago?)

    I agree that the Civil War should be just another thing you study in high school, but there are a lot of idiots both North and South of the Mason-Dixon line who won't let it be. I'd bet you don't even know where the Mason-Dixon line is located or who Mason & Dixon were and why they drew their line in the first place.**

    "Yankee", "Yankeeland" and "Ignorant Yankee" all mean pretty much the same thing, but I only bring them out when someone starts bad-mouthing the South when they won't even bother to learn how much things have changed in the last 50 years, much less since the American Civil War ... so if you don't want to be called an "Ignorant Yankee" don't BE an ignorant Yankee. Plus most of what y'all been denigrating the South for doesn't even exist in the south anymore, except when carpet-baggers bring it with 'em.

    If y'all are going to lump all of the "South" together so you can bad mouth us, why shouldn't I lump all of the North together to bad mouth you?

    BTW - there's 3 "flavors" of Yankees: Yankees, Damn Yankees and GODDAMN Yankees. Yankees live "up there", Damn Yankees have moved "down here" and GODDAMN Yankees are down here trying to get a date with your sister. Now the reason I find that funny is my sister was born in Columbia Presbyterian Hospital in Downtown New York City (my dad was in grad school at the time). She's a "Damn Yankee" herself and proud of it.

    **Maryland state line between Maryland and Delaware and between Maryland and Pennsylvania surveyed BEFORE the American Revolution to resolve a border dispute between the three ENGLISH COLONIES. It came into use as a symbolic division between "North" & "South" during Congressional debate that led to the 1820 Missouri Compromise.

    577:

    Heh, heh, heh.

    I ust to bike over a lot of Philly. I even had a job for a month in the mid-seventies working for my mother's boss, where I was riding from University City (part of west Philly) to Germantown (northwest), which was about 11 mi each way, uphill both ways (ok, the Schuylkill River was in the middle), which took me about 55 min.

    Oh, did I mention I spent two summers in the mid-seventies as a bike messenger in downtown Philly?

    578:

    My not-nuanced-at-all take on Warren is that the overall lesson the Democratic party took from Trump was that to win elections, you have to be against competence.

    My slightly more nuanced take is that Bloomberg doesn't care who is president as long as it isn't Elizabeth Warren.[1] It's not so much she took him out of the running; it's that he was perfectly willing to spend half a gigabuck to make Warren use disapproving-teacher-voice on stage. Everyone has memories of that really capable teacher; usually primary, sometimes later, and Warren is basically that teacher turned up to fourteen. Her support among men collapsed afterwards, because the idea of someone like that having material power puts her into cannot-cope territory for effectively the entire male population.

    [1] I can't recall where I saw someone describe the USMC as the President's sidearm, but it seems likely that Bloomberg has no more difficulty than I do imagining Warren deciding that the forensic audit of a tax haven will be supported by whichever MEU is handy.

    579:

    Who said I expected you to drop what you're doing to answer my call? That's what voicemail is for. And I live by email, though too many folks just don't check their email even daily.... (Freakin' facepalm!)

    And, as near as I can tell, at least 80% of everyone with an annoyaphone seems to think that they MUST respond to ALL TEXTS instantly (including when they're driving).

    580:

    To make that work you need a functional network of home health-care workers who can come in to assist with care

    The people you are working to isolate are mostly not the bedridden and very sick. It’s the person with a very mild cough who has expensive concert tickets and does not want to miss out.

    (As happened here in NZ with our 4th confirmed case. I wish he had stayed home)

    For slightly more serious cases you want family members to have sick leave to care for their spouse, kids or parents. Again, late stage capitalism does not do a good job of that.

    581:

    No.. no, not Fredonia! Fredonia Rules the Waves!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyeKYQdYISg

    All my folks came over in 1914.

    582:

    DonL @ 460:

    And does *anyone* want to argue that a virtual keyboard on a stupidphone is anything other than an abominably horrible kludge of an interface?

    Doesn't weigh much, though. But I recommend eg this keyboard if you want something that fits in a pocket, and can actually be typed on. (Assuming your fingers are the same size as mine.) Sold under various names. Unfolding it powers up the Bluetooth link.

    And according to Bob Howard it makes a semi-adequate bullet-proof vest. I think that was in the Jennifer Morgue, but it might have been later. I don't remember if the cummerbund USB keyboard was a replacement for his folding keyboard or not, but I do "remember" his folding keyboard getting shot up in one of the stories.

    Or was that was Jack in Halting State?

    583:

    Don't get me started. Death tax? Can we put them to death if they don't want to pay?

    Like the idea of a progressive one.

    584:

    TBH the centre on foot thing is usually a bigger deal than the cycling one.

    Where I currently live the road layout and consequent likelihood of getting killed is far more of a deterrent than distance. Covering ground on a bike is easy but I don't enjoy being surrounded by over tired commuters while I do it any more.

    585:

    True. Still, it's the South that pushes the religious laws (like anti-Choice).

    586:

    Dan H. @ 465: On the other hand, why not simply drop inheritance tax altogether?

    The amount of offence a tax on already-taxed assets causes is huge, and if you force people into weird and wonderful legal measures to dodge inheritance tax, all you end up doing is creating a new aristocratic class which lacks the traditional British exit clause of some inbred nitwit blowing all his inheritance on gambling.

    It's a bogus argument because the rich didn't have to pay taxes when they were accumulating those assets. The assets have NOT been "already-taxed".

    587:

    Jerry Gaines @ 481: Both Air Canada and Air New Zealand have nonstops from Vancouver to Auckland. But I can't find any nonstops from Edinburgh to Vancouver.

    What about Glasgow or worse case London?

    588:

    Her support among men collapsed afterwards, because the idea of someone like that having material power puts her into cannot-cope territory for effectively the entire male population.

    That puts Warren in the running for VP, then!

    Remember that since GHWB, the role of the VPOTUS has been to act as a deterrent to over-enthusiastic proponents of regime change (assassinate Bush, get Quayle; assassinate Shrub, get Cheney; assassinate Trump, get Pence).

    As VPOTUS to an ageing and less-than-dynamic Biden, Warren could do the Cheney-style power-behind-the-throne thing and ensure that even the more barking MAGAs would think twice before assassinating the Democrat president.

    (This is the best spin I can put on it.)

    589:

    I refuse to fly via the London airports, period.

    Glasgow airport is (a) a dung-heap, and (b) two and a half hours from where I live by ground transport (including driving my own car). Only 40 of your old-school miles, but there are two capital cities in the way and I'm just close enough to the centre on the wrong side of Edinburgh to drive in the opposite direction for twenty minutes and save time by nipping around the ring road.

    They're talking about running a railway line from Glasgow Queen Street out to GLA one of these years, in which case I could catch a train to QS in about 40 minutes then change, but it hasn't happened yet and GLA has been in the same place for decades.

    (Basically Edinburgh is a bitch to get to from everywhere, even places that look close on a map.)

    590:

    @585: Still, it's the South that pushes the religious laws (like anti-Choice).

    Well, that kind of depends. Do you call Texas the South? Most Texans (raises hand) would say Texas is Texas; the South is east of us. Lots of "religious" (as opposed to faithful) folks there. Also, I spent twenty years in Colorado Springs, sadly home to Focus on the Family, used to great and proper effect by Charlie in The Apocalypse Codex, and a strong proponent of anti-LGBTQ views. Plus, El Cheeto Grande's VP, Mike Pence (aka evil Race Bannon) is from Indiana, which we certainly can't call the South.

    591:

    Thing with Biden is there's nigh-certainly already a would-be power behind the throne because Biden's sundowning. Someone plans to be the filter/real power/White House Chief of Staff and leave the photo-ops to Joe. Be nice if we knew who that was.

    As various people been pointing about about Trump and delegation of presidential powers, it would be completely legal for Obama to work in the Biden admin as White House Chief of Staff. And for Biden to delegate the majority of the presidential powers to that office. As long as nobody 25th Amendments Joe and Joe doesn't die, it's the perfect solution; experienced in the role, trusted, going to talk to Joe about policy...

    I don't think it is plausible, never mind likely, but things are going to start to come apart, especially if COVID-19 really does fully greenfield in the States. (Here, too, if it does, dammit.)

    592:

    ROTFL!

    Speaking as a naturalized Texan (lived in and around Austin for 7.5 years, late 80's/early 90's, and my late wife was a native, possibly - she was researching it - a Texian), Texas is a whole 'nother state. Now, there are Texans who think that only Texas is the South (well, maybe, Louisiana), but it is the weirdest melange I know of.

    Florida (lived on the Space Coast for 3.5 years, my late ex was a Floridian) is a gumbo, so neither really qualifies.

    593:

    Texas was carved out of abolitionist Mexico by slave-owners and it was a slave state from day one and it seceded from the Union during the Second Treasonous Slaveholders Rebellion in 1861 so I'd class it as a Southern state.

    From a Texas media report in 2018, "While Texas has removed the most Confederate markers since 2015, it still has more than 200 remaining — second only to Virginia."

    594:

    the role of the VPOTUS has been

    Sorry, but you're committing a category error.

    You're assuming the VP-candidate is selected because of what they'll be like as VP. But they're not.

    The role of the VP-candidate is to help get the POTUS-candidate elected. That's it. They're selected for their helpfulness in the campaign. They're not picking a VP, they're picking a campaign prop.

    And (obviously) the most important part of the campaign is fund-raising.

    So a modern VPOTUS is selected to appeal to fund-raising from those billionaires who back that party but which the POTUS does not have much appeal to.

    Cheney for the inexperienced Bush. Biden to appeal to the democractic establishment billionaires for Obama, since they'd mostly backed Clinton. Pence to appeal to the conservative billionaires for Trump since his campaign had been populist until then.

    So there is no way in hell that Biden will pick Warren, whose campaign included selling cups labelled "Billionaire's Tears". Maybe if he was picking a VP he would. But Biden's not picking a VP, he's picking a prop to help his campaign's fund-raising.

    595:

    I've just realised that in my last comment I was even more cynical about US politics than Charlie.

    Weird. I wouldn't have thought that possible.

    596:

    Graydon @ 568 What we're currently seeing looks a lot like COVID-19 is going to proceed as though the US has no public health system. Well ... it does not, does it? Incidentally, what's this about "Not allowed" to test - makes no sense ( Yeah, I know! ) REPEAT of my earlier question - At WHAT POINT does "isolation" cease to be of any use, once a disease is "Out" in the general population? In spite of the panic, the number of actual cases is still ridiculously low, in absolute real numbers.

    @ 578 Warren is basically that teacher turned up to fourteen ... In which case, she would have been even better than Bernie... The US needs really good & thorough reaming. [ As will we if BOZO lasts 5 years ] ... see also Charlie @ 588 ... That puts Warren in the running for VP, then!

    JBS @ 576 I think the problem is that many in "the South" ( & others elsewhere ) will fly this fucking flag - which ought to be about as acceptable as flying this one i.e. NOT AT ALL. Your "First Amendment" sounds wonderful, until, um, err... now what?

    597:

    Re measured doubling time, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_data/WHO_situation_reports Broken up into multiple tables for different time periods. Search on "Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) cases in first half of March 2020" This wikipedia page is said to use https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports for raw data.

    Anyway, doubling time outside China seems to be about 4 days but it is unclear how that is skewed by limited (but increasing in spurts) test coverage. If China's statistics can be believed, their doubling time is far lower, around 20 days. South Korea is currently pretty good with testing, and the doubling time there is roughly a week.

    So we might, with better control measures, be looking at a lower rate of spread. The US is in a bad way. Local public health officials are often fairly empowered though, and are competent regardless of politics. (Excepting regrettable exceptions like HIV.)

    598:

    Yes.

    However, I lived there. You can't imagine just how fragmented Texas is - for one, there are a LOT of hispanics and Mexicans in the state. And blacks.

    Note that gerrymandering, and the recent (in the last month or so) closing of a bunch of polling places around the state made huge, hours-long lines.

    And the people are fragmented, too. Every time you think you've got it pinned down, it swerves left, right, up or down, randomly.

    599:

    Ha!

    Maybe a “Yan house”?

    I would kill for a basement here in Socal. I don’t know why most houses here don’t have basements. A basement would be the perfect place to store my ever-growing stash of pandemic/earthquake/camping supplies.

    600:

    Finally, the smelly-hands approach to training out face touching appears in the press: How to Stop Touching Your Face (Jenny Gross, March 6, 2020) Using scented soap or lotion could also help, said Zach Sikora, a clinical psychologist at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago. When you bring your hands close to your face, that smell could make you more aware of your actions.

    Scenario spinners and US authoritarian takeover planners might be interested in these about Emergency Powers granted by the legislature to the US Presidency over the last several (mostly) decades: The alarming narrative version: The Alarming Scope of the President's Emergency Powers - From seizing control of the internet to declaring martial law, President Trump may legally do all kinds of extraordinary things. (Elizabeth Goitein, January 2019) The details: A Guide to Emergency Powers and Their Use - The 136 statutory powers that may become available to the president upon declaration of a national emergency. (September 4, 2019)

    This is deliciously high tech, a very specialized robo-nanny, with queasiness-inducing privacy implications baked in. (And perhaps illegal under GDPR?) This Website Yells at You Every Time You Touch Your Stupid Face - If you're trying to stop touching your face to keep from spreading coronavirus, being shamed by a website might help. (Samantha Cole, Mar 5 2020) To begin your re-training, Donottouchyourface.com records a couple seconds of your webcam and you sit, agonizingly, not touching your face. Then it asks you to touch all over your face for a few seconds. This is to train a Tensorflow algorithm, according to the website, so it can recognize when you're touching your dumb mug with your virus-coated fingers.

    SBH: This is going to get dirty, bloody, and evil very fast. Yep. (Brad Parscale is way overconfident. But it will be seriously ugly. DJT's adult children should consider this.)

    601:

    @593: Texas was carved out of abolitionist Mexico by slave-owners and it was a slave state from day one

    I was speaking of present-day Texas, not intending another interminable refighting of the Civil War. As noted by Whitroth @592, present-day Texas is a mix of many cultures.

    As a distant relative of Sterling Robertson, I'm well aware of the grand and ignoble history of Texas, founded in large part by sharp operators and con men like Stephen F. Austin, who essentially stole Robertson's colony from him. I'm also aware of the vile history of slavery in Texas. You might note, however, that that last link also discusses the only-recent (1821) abolishment of slavery in Mexico; also England only passed the Slavery Abolition Act in 1833. I am in no way defending slavery or those who owned slaves, but I would like to point out that, into the 19th century, chattel slavery was practiced in Mexico and England, and most slaves brought to the North American colonies were part of the English slave trade. To think of slavery as only occurring in the southern United States is to miss the larger historical picture.

    602:

    To think of slavery as only occurring in the southern United States is to miss the larger historical picture.

    I recall seeing a photograph of a plantation with a Negro standing beside a whipping post, used for punishment. The photograph was taken in the South in the 1930s. No, not 1830s, 1930s.

    Vagrancy laws were commonly used to send primarily black Americans to prison camps where their forced unpaid labour was sold to local white farmers and this continued into the 1950s at least. It was slavery under another name, courtesy of Nathan Bedford Forrest, someone who until recently also had statues and schools named after him in the South.

    603:

    @602: You've made your point, and I've made mine. I'm not going to engage in an extended debate on this topic.

    604:

    England only passed the Slavery Abolition Act in 1833.

    Britain passed the Slave Trade Act in 1807 and started enforcing it in the Atlantic in 1808, much to the displeasure of the US and especially the South. From Wikipedia...

    "Between 1808 and 1860 the West Africa Squadron captured 1,600 slave ships and freed 150,000 Africans."

    A drop in the bucket, of course since those rows of tobacco in Virginia weren't going to hoe themselves and the plantation owners weren't going to do it either.

    605:

    What stops every legislative term from beginning with a single vote to extend ALL existing legislation by another term?

    (If someone doesn't think it's worth the time to single out a law for explicit repeal, I have difficulty imagining why they'd think it worth the time to explicitly exclude it from the renewal package. Also note that if you vote against the package, your opponents will say that you voted against renewing laws prohibiting murder, rape, etc.)

    I suppose you could try to say that they're only allowed to renew one law at a time, but I don't know how you'd get a useful definition of "one law" that doesn't result in the passage of a "one law" criminalizing thousands of distinct offenses.

    606:

    You can't imagine just how fragmented Texas is - for one, there are a LOT of hispanics and Mexicans in the state. And blacks.

    Yes, we lived in SoTX for some 20 years, 1999-2019 (Cameron and Bexar Counties) and one of the things I really liked about it was the mix of peoples, cultures, languages.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Texas

    607:

    It's in & connected. I've tested for leaks and done all the tests the instructions that came with it told me to do. The hardest part was getting the back foot lined up & slid into the anti-tip mechanism after I got the gas connected (connections tested with gas leak detector fluid).

    The cook top is absolutely level front to back, side to side & diagonally. No more will my omelets slide off to one corner of the pan. I think the first thing I'm going to cook is bacon.

    608:

    P J Evans @ 490: I need at least 90 minutes to get from bed to fully-functional. When I was working, and had to leave by 6am to catch my train, it meant getting up far earlier than I wanted; I didn't normally do hot breakfast, but could if necessary (about 10 minutes, maximum). If I was really in a hurry, breakfast was a sandwich (probably PB & honey).

    If you don't have to drive to the station you might be able to leave the house semi-functional ... unless you mean that's how long it takes to make your morning ablutions & dress.

    609:

    JReynolds @ 492:

    So when someone with a southern accent uses a word like "Yankee" or "Yankeeland" he gets kind of a sideways look. "Ignorant Yankee" is an ignorant phrase.

    From The Devil's Dictionary, by Ambrose Bierce:

    YANKEE

    -n.

    In Europe, an American. In the Northern States of our Union, a New Englander. In the Southern States the word is unknown. (See DAMNYANK.)

    I once had a sweet young thing of the southern persuasion (butter wouldn't melt in her mouth" sub-variety) tell me that she was 17 years old and a senior in high school before she figured out damnyankee is supposed to be two words.

    610:

    Far out. My stupid electric isn't that tilted, but let's just say when I do a cake or torte, I rotate the pans in the oven 180 halfway through cooking, if I remember.

    611:

    colortheorytoo @ 501: Anywhere near Owensboro?

    The only time I ever heard anyone use the term "Yankee" was in reference to houses with basements, which my dad calls "Yankee houses".

    It's about 130 miles from Owensboro to Paducah. You'd pass within 10 miles of Fredonia going down the Western Kentucky Parkway (I-69).

    612:

    David L @ 514:

    My grandfather was from northeastern KY - there are still a fair number of distant cousins there, though many moved out. My grandfather (and his father and two of his sisters) left between 1900 and 1905, moving west to Kansas and then Oklahoma.

    Eastern Kentucky has been, for most people there, a sucky place to live for 200 years or so. And before that only so so. Mineral rights to nearly every square inch of land that were sold off in the 1800s, opioids, bad shine, and total grinding poverty. To start with.

    But in sort of a Stockholm Syndrome the people from there who don't leave are fiercely proud of the area. For few reasons outsiders can see.

    I'm happy for you that your ancestors got out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6UuuEpinyA

    613:

    Dirk Bruere @ 536: BTW, in the USA what happened to all those "FEMA Concentration Camps" the wingnuts were going on about a while back? Did they exist? Are they going to be useful? Will the wingnuts express gratitude?

    You're only allowed to have "FEMA Concentration Camps" when there's a Democrat in the White House. I thought everyone knew that.

    Same goes for "Black Helicopters" (which are actually dark green BTW) and "Chemtrails"

    614:

    Dirk Bruere @ 542: I don't usually follow up on such conspiracy nuttery - there is far more interesting conspiracy stuff out there. But actually having such FEMA camps would make sense to house people during natural disasters or act as isolation hospitals for viral outbreaks.

    https://www.google.com/maps/@35.9636106,-78.8657917,3a,75y,255.6h,78.45t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sOq_gRSMU7T8hs6UrYg9DlA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

    FEMA trailers from previous "relief" efforts (most recently Florence and Michael.

    The problem with the idea is that the trailers were CHEAP CRAP!, already falling apart when FEMA acquired them for Katrina (2005). Believe it or not, FEMA got ripped off by contractors who provided substandard shit. (Can you say Crony Capitalism Boys 'n Girls?) They've fallen apart more and more every time FEMA has rolled them out since then.

    616:

    Interesting question, and suspect to an extent we may already be there.

    Ontario announced a further 5 cases today, and while the usual sources are included (Iran) one case appears to be the result of a trip to Vegas (and he took public transit to/from work for 3 days before being diagnosed), and a couple who were on a cruise ship that visited Mexico.

    So given all the travel sources it no longer an easy people from destination A need to self-quarantine (and the big travel to the south March Break week long holiday from school is coming up).

    But, the public demands the people in charge do something to solve the problem, so giving up isn't an option and the best we can hope for is they don't end up making things worse.

    It may also be a case of hoping to slow the spread enough that the demand on scarce hospital resources can be spread out over time, thus decreasing the number of triage decisions that will need to be made (and the inevitable legal and PR problems that would result).

    617:

    While GDP has not direct benefit to the 99% in terms of greater wealth, protecting the GDP does benefit the 99% - because protecting GDP inherently means protecting the economy, which means the jobs that those 99% rely on to put food on the table.

    If Covid-19 puts countries into recession, the resulting job losses will hurt many in that 99%, and predominantly the lowest say 33% - and some, in the US, having lost health benefits (the ability to pay for life maintaining drugs) or being homeless, will die.

    618:

    The problem is that those numbers are counting "confirmed cases", officially tested and reported. That number is necessarily low, and how low is one of those vexed questions.

    In the US, where the confirmed case count is being actively suppressed, it's effectively meaningless for epidemiology; it's a measure of how effective the confirmed case count suppression is.

    Everybody except the PRC, South Korea, and Singapore are relying on self-reporting; the medical officer of health types hereabouts are being pellucidly clear that this means some cases are being missed. (And had things to say about the fellow who came back to Toronto from Las Vegas and rode the subway while symptomatic for a couple days before self-reporting...)

    Of the presently public information I know about, I think the most interesting is the graph in the lower right hand corner of https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 where you can see a couple-three things; the PRC looks to have the spread under control, the recovery time is long and has a long right tail, and even going by confirmed cases, the "everywhere else" curve is headed for vertical. If we don't see that start to flatten in the next few weeks that's worrying.

    619:

    Thanks, JBS - I was about to post a link to some copy of that. (Yes, if you have never heard "Never Leave Harlan Alive", you should.

    620:

    Well... no. Paul Krugman notes that in the last 30-49 years, we've gone from under 10% to 20%? 25%? of the US economy in the financial sector, meaning it's people with money playing a Ponzi scheme, and making more money.

    As I've said before, the GDP is you, me, and Bill the Gates in a room - so, based on average income, how's it feel being a billionaire?

    The "financial sector" skews everything. For all practical purposes, the purchasing power of the 95% has been flat for 30-some years (minus a small upswing under Bill Clinton).

    621:

    Since American politics does not seem to be verboten on this thread:

    I am curious how Warren acquired this aura of competence. She alienated people of color with her DNA fiasco. She said she was not going to raise taxes on the middle class to fund her health plan. This made a lot of eyebrows raise. Then she clarified that she was not actually backing a Sanders level plan, which alienated her base. Then to get back the support of her base she made clumsy personal attacks on Sanders, which included attacks on everything about him the Left likes. She broke her promise on PAC funding, but blamed other people for forcing her to do it. Bernie gobbled up the left side and the right did not want her. People who still preferred her to Bernie also felt pressure to collect behind one progressive, now that the right is unified. She could have been the comforting face of social democracy for all the people who thought Bernie was too angry, strident, bolshy, radical or Jewish. She lost the trust of us on the left and she was surplus to requirements for the right. She might have been a compromise candidate if Klobuchar and Pete stayed the course. But now the Judaean People's Front does not feel the need for compromise.

    TLDR: she pivoted at the wrong times in the worse ways; she has no political instincts.

    Personally, I started by backing her fully. Then I lowered it to thinking she was more electable than Bernie, if not as committed. Then coming to the sad realization that she was only acceptable in comparison to Biden, i.e. what if Bernie dies.

    Notice that the African American Democratic leadership has deep relationships with the establishment. Latinx not so much. And they are radically breaking apart into hardened commitments to the separate camps. Not good news for the future unity of the Party.

    And yes, I'll vote for Biden in November: better fumbling in the fog than the clear, sunny path to fascism.

    622:

    Biden entered the 2020 race as the "safe" Democrat contender who could allow Wall Street sleep safe at night knowing that the President wasn't going to come after their money - and indirectly keep funding the Democrat Party.

    This came about the front runners at that point, Sanders and Warren, were both for dealing with the wealth imbalance in society and the risk Wall Street poses for the US economy.

    When Biden started to falter (Ukraine scandal), the rich then pushed Howard Schultz (Starbucks) into running but he quickly foundered on the rocks, and was able to quietly withdraw when Biden didn't seem to be hurt to badly by Ukraine.

    But then Sanders started to gain in the polls and Wall Street started to panic again, which resulted into the rumours/talk that Clinton should try again and eventually resulted in Bloomberg running.

    The good news for Wall Street is that despite Bloomberg failing badly, as the choices became clearer voters have rallied behind Biden.

    It is difficult to predict, but Bloomberg's few supporters will go to Biden while Warren supporters will likely split between Biden and Sanders (and that is bad for Sanders).

    623:

    Scope for a device?

    Wrist bands or even rings, one for each hand, and a sensor which buzzes/beeps/emits a small electric shock when approached by the band, to be worn round the neck/on a forehead band/as spectacles.

    624:

    Warren was a registered Republican up to 1996, where she switched parties (or likely more accurately, like a lot of Americans the Republican Party left her behind as it lurched and accelerated rightwards).

    As the most competent of the 2020 contenders she would likely make a good VP, and that then could possibly offer a good option of having Biden be a one term President and Warren be the favourite to replace him.

    But competence is not necessarily the deciding factor, it can be fund raising but it can also be bringing on board a segment of the voters (base or middle) that may not be entirely happy with the Presidential contender - hence McCain's disastrous choice of Palin to try and get the Tea Party side on board.

    The real question for the Biden campaign would be if her negatives outweighed the benefits.

    625:

    Michael. @ 543: As for Yankees, I'm like a European, all the septics are yanks. (Yank -> septic tank -> septic ...) ;)

    Probably won't get any argument from true southerners. 8^)

    626:

    You're only allowed to have "FEMA Concentration Camps" when there's a Democrat in the White House.

    Yes, now they're American Pride Centres or somesuch nonsense, like the Australian "immigration detention facilities" where worse things happen but everyone is happy because they're keeping us safe. Presumably from the refugees once they become so traumatised by their treatment that they're a danger to themselves and occasionally others. Or the quiet Australians who get put in them and become radicalised by the realisation that their government only cares about them insofar as it can mistreat them to set an example.

    There is surprisingly little crackpot reaction to the recent declaration that "Australian Aborigines" can't be deported even if they lack citizenship and otherwise qualify for deportation. I was expecting some serious racist fuckery, but it's as though most of them haven't noticed.

    627:

    Here in NZ the politician-class is mainly in their 50s and early 60s, but from what I see in the USA it's a decade older. A prime target for Covid-19. What sort of psychological effect do you think it'd have if that class and their social peers are literally decimated?

    I predict more spending on public health, whoever's the president after the next election. And probably a lot more work closing off the borders, again independent of the president of the day.

    628:

    It's not quite Appalachia poor - it's been mostly farming and grazing for at least 120 years, being at the east edge of the Bluegrass. (I have copies of photos from the mid-1890s.) The county is still rural and so low population; it's too far out for most commuting.

    629:

    Warren is competent - she has a long career demonstrating that. Unlike Sanders, her campaign issues were well thought out, and in particular the financing of them was generally deemed to be accurate by third parties (unlike Sanders, who many third parties consider much of the financial claims of his campaign to be made up fiction).

    Not clear what DNA fiasco you are referring to - the DNA test she had done confirmed what she had been claiming, that she had a distant relative with Native American ancestry.

    But even though the Sanders wing of the party disliked it, her health plan actually demonstrated her competence in that it took the realities of government into consideration.

    It is easy to be a leader like Sanders and claim the world, much like Corbyn did, when you have no idea or plan to actually achieve it (which in Corybn's case was a way to become PM).

    Sander's has no way to implement his promises, and thus they aren't worth the paper (or webpage) they are printed on.

    As much as people don't want to hear/accept it, Warren was entirely correct on the superPAC funding - once Bloomberg entered the race and starting throwing money around everything became a lot more expensive, and with Biden already having superPAC support Warren had no choice but to roll the dice as without that money for ads her campaign was dead anyway.

    It is also in a way creating an artificial distinction - while Sanders doesn't directly accept superPAC funding, there are PACs that are funding ads promoting Sander - they just aren't officially endorsed by Sanders.

    In the end there won't be any one thing that doomed Warren, but a significant part of it will be that she is a she - there are a lot of Democrats who believe Clinton "proved" that a woman can't be President, when all that 2016 proved was that Hilary Clinton had in part too much baggage to be President.

    630:

    Bernie likes the Dems as long as they allow him to use their facilities for his campaigns. He's not actually a party member, and neither are a lot of his followers (and most likely those are the loudest of the lot). But he feels free to badmouth the party he's freeloading on, including people he's going to need to win anything more than what he has already. (He also doesn't seem to realize that they're the ones he's going to need in the future.)

    631:

    mdlve # 544: The problem isn't that Sanders is a "socialist", but rather that he exhibits many of the problems of Corbyn (like the cult of supporters) that likely make him just as unelectable as Corbyn was in December.

    The "problem" with Sanders is he's an ideological candidate trying to move the Democratic Party to the left (which I happen to agree needs to happen BTW). But, to WIN in November, the Democratic Party is going to need a coalition builder to bring back the "Obama" swing voters that Trumpolini managed to lure away in 2016. Trumpolini did manage to do a remarkable thing ... he somehow convinced a substantial number of African-American voters, especially in the south to vote for him (or at least to stay home and NOT vote for Clinton) at the same time the GOP was doing everything they could think of to disenfranchise those same voters.

    Those are the voters who seemingly came out of nowhere for Biden in South Carolina giving him a BIG win that he took into Super Tuesday, where those same "Obama" swing voters gave him the victories made him the front-runner for the Nomination.

    Meanwhile all those young, motivated NEW voters Sanders said were going to come out and vote for him didn't show up ... and that's at least in part because Sanders doesn't really have a "get out the vote" organization to chivvy them to the polls.

    And after his poor showing on Super Tuesday instead of reevaluating & looking to see how he might connect with African-American Democrats, he's doubled down on his "young, UNmotivated new voters" delusion - a delusion because he STILL doesn't have an organization or even plans to create any kind of "get out the vote" organization - and he's written off African-American Democrats completely. He may not think he needs them, but the Democratic Party does.

    Like I said, I agree with much of his ideology, but if he wants to win the nomination and he wants to beat Trumpolini in November, that ideology has to be matched with some good old-fashioned practical Democratic coalition building.

    ... and an Honest to Dog GET OUT THE VOTE! campaign.

    Sanders ain't even really a "socialist". If you look at everything he's done as a Senator (which is fairly easy, 'cause he ain't done much) he's just a hold-over "New Deal" FDR Democrat.

    632:

    I walked to my station. 15 minutes, roughly, and only three streets to cross, all of which have signals. (Some days I drove, because I was doing stuff after work. It wasn't much faster than walking.) If I was in a hurry, it was because I woke up late. (I had to be at work at 7:30am. There was one train earlier than mine, and it goes through at about 5:40am. It's "the first train"; the one I caught was "the early train".)

    633:

    Heh.

    We know from the events in Wuhan that the disease can have a long recovery time -- six weeks in the ICU on a respirator -- so you're neglecting the case where come voting day the GOP incumbents and the democratic challengers are in (different!) ICU wards, unconscious and slowly filling with mucus.

    Bound to have an effect on turnout.

    (Wildly unlikely; it won't take that long to peak, and if the incapacity happens pre-convention someone else gets nominated.)

    634:

    Warren IS competent. Or moreso than most candidates. The DNA thing was blown up by the Republican'ts into a Big Deal. It turns out she does have some Native American DNA, several generations back, but it's far enough that it would be difficult to document. She never claimed it was a Big Thing. And what she did to Bloomberg was a master class in shredding claims.

    635:

    whitroth @ 579: Who said I expected you to drop what you're doing to answer my call? That's what voicemail is for. And I live by email, though too many folks just don't check their email even daily.... (Freakin' facepalm!)

    Guilty as charged yer honor.

    But, I am retired and email ain't what it used to be. Ninety-nine percent of what I get nowadays is SPAM. Even the people I actually want to send me email mostly send SPAM.

    The telephone is worse. It's MORE than 99% robocalls, telemarketers and house flippers who think they're going to swindle me out of my home. I pretty much screen my calls & if you're not on my contacts list, you better leave a voice mail if you want me to even consider talking to you. If you ARE a telemarketer or house flipper, GFY!

    And texting is even worse. I'd do away with it entirely if I didn't need the occasional text from the VA to confirm doctors appointments.

    636:

    You're losing your touch, or are no longer working with/for the Ukrainians, or gave up on the old Mind-Meld stuff.

    Disappointing.

    Check #6 film link, and who just did a DMC takedown. Pretty sure it wasn't made by a Turkish company. Even without the T, Ha-Far gets them all excited. Especially Gold Coins. Might even have been allowable if we'd linked to #3 in the trilogy, but it's just general piggery to trash a nice copy like that, so fuck them[0]

    Anyhow, tricks you missed:

    [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-saudi-royal-family-members-detained-11583531033

    [2] https://seekingalpha.com/news/3548059-softbank-backed-oyo-takes-valuation-hit-nikkei

    [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/10-year-treasury-yield-falls-below-0point83percent-as-coronavirus-rocks-markets.html

    Oh and that -1k came true (and you should check out Bonds and Oil). Old Dirk paying attention would have made a cool £50k or so and said thank-you for the 'hat-tip'.

    ~

    Warren is a Harvard Tech-wonk and is a Republican. That says a lot more about the Tea Party and Modern GOP than anything else: she has never changed her fundamental loyalty to certain US systemic approaches to the world, and has no intentions of ever doing so. Trust me: she rose hard and fast in Harvard putting out the last remnants of actual Liberal values it held, she's really not any Democrat left of FDR's friend.

    The fact America was running her and Bloomberg as democratic nominations tells you a few tings. And they're not good tings. And it also shows up a massive number of "on-line" people as either dumb or worse.

    Just sayin.

    ~

    Oh, and if you want to up the ante, and get kinky after IL's RW just got a massive bangin fuck you (60! 60! it was 60!... oooooops[1]), AIPAC (who Bloomberg was actually doing stuff for, on the side, fLoRiDA etc) just managed to have #2-4 COVID19 hot peeps land in their 'engagement' zones. Better plonk that UK Rabbi / UK Labor MP into quarantine for 14 days, eh?[2]

    No, really. AIPAC managed to hot-zone their entire convention via NYC guests.

    FUCKING WELL DONE.

    [0] They're actually all pissed because they couldn't run their usual "Mil Coup" routine 'cause RU and stuff. Oh, and that Greek stunt is going to crater their economy in about a fortnight, but hey, that's madness speaking.

    [1] https://twitter.com/YoavKarny/status/1236077250082222085 --- we'll see how the Rabin play works out in 2020. Hint: not a smart move, there's locusts in Pak/CN and we're not feeling generous about your wavering abilities to act like adults anymore.

    [2] They won't, but here's a freebee: it's been noted. Sloppy sloppy sloppy. "Tip of the spear" is beyond Viagra repair. Infected Ideological Zone. .... Biblical.

    ~

    Oh and Warren and the DNA claims?

    Lol... says a lot more about your Minds than you think it does, and not in a good way.

    637:

    Trying to predict the US currently, and how it reacts to anything, is difficult. With all the norms of the last 70 years out the proverbial window in many cases anything is possible.

    About the only certainty is that Trump will ignore what is best for the US and do what is best for him.

    That may mean, particularly if polling is bad, an attempt to have the election delayed/cancelled - and remember he exerts control over the Supreme Court by tweet.

    There could even be a faction within the administration/GOP who will convince themselves that this is biological warfare by China against the US and attempt to respond.

    But as for the idea of more spending on public health, I give that a 1% chance - this is after all a government that is holding up funding for the Covid-19 crisis because the proposed law forbids price gouging by the pharmaceutical and healthcare companies.

    639:

    I agree Sanders isn't a real "socialist", but then again I'm not an American. Thus his policies don't scare me as I realize that they aren't radical the way many in the US think they are.

    The real problem with Sanders, much like Corbyn, is he doesn't know when to quit.

    While he didn't do much (yet) to the party headquarters, he did move the party (as in the rank and file voters) to the left.

    AOC needed not just Trump, but Sanders, for her to both enter politics and succeed in getting elected. She, and other young people, built upon what Sanders helped to start.

    Warren could've been an extension to that success at moving the party to the left with her ability to actually possibly get things done in DC.

    But his ego or whatever else wouldn't allow it, and instead he had to run for a second time.

    As you say, he doesn't appear to have the ground game and that is likely in part because of his superPAC aversion - he simply isn't raising enough independent money to fund the type of organization that can get out the vote in 50 states.

    But I suspect (again like Corbyn) it is also in part that with the passage of time many of the younger voters look at him as though he is past the sell by date, and thus are no longer interested in him. This is partially because he is no longer the fresh "radical" he was 4 years ago, but I suspect after 4 years of Trump it is also the realization that you need to the ability to get things done in addition to good ideas.

    640:

    but then again I'm not an American

    Odd, your stance / talking points are very American (USA).

    Mind hinting at where your origins actually are so we could ask a couple of (country specific) politics questions to see more?

    Don't appear to be UK, either[0]

    [0] Naughty naughty.

    641:

    Charlie Stross @ 589: I refuse to fly via the London airports, period.

    Ok. I'll keep that in mind if I come up with any other bright ideas.

    Glasgow airport is (a) a dung-heap, and (b) two and a half hours from where I live by ground transport (including driving my own car). Only 40 of your old-school miles, but there are two capital cities in the way and I'm just close enough to the centre on the wrong side of Edinburgh to drive in the opposite direction for twenty minutes and save time by nipping around the ring road.

    They're talking about running a railway line from Glasgow Queen Street out to GLA one of these years, in which case I could catch a train to QS in about 40 minutes then change, but it hasn't happened yet and GLA has been in the same place for decades.

    (Basically Edinburgh is a bitch to get to from everywhere, even places that look close on a map.)

    My 2004 trip to Scotland (my only trip to Scotland so far - I hope I get to visit again) I came in and left through Glasgow airport. It seemed to be an all right airport, on a par with RDU (the only airport I'm intimately familiar with).

    We de-planed at (I think) Manchester to go through UK customs on the way in (coming from Frankfort while half the airport there was still Rein-Main AFB) and I had to change planes at Heathrow on the return trip to Germany. Heathrow wasn't that bad either, no worse than having to change flights at Chicago O'Hare or Atlanta Hartsfield. I really haven't flown commercially that much. More than 90% of my experience is going by C-130 or UH-1/UH-60.

    From the point of view of an American, Scotland's passenger rail & inter-city bus systems were marvelous, quality far surpassing what we have here in the States. Hell, the city buses were better than anything I've experienced here. Seemed like Glasgow had at least three different competing bus lines serving the city. Plus, I have this thing for subway systems & I thought Glasgow's system was neat.

    642:

    Warren could've been an extension to that success at moving the party to the left with her ability to actually possibly get things done in DC.

    Warren is many things, but she has never claimed to be "on the left".

    She's a sitting Senator and there are no left wing sitting Senators in the US government in 2020.

    Moving the USA "to the left" is only a meaningful statement if you take the current GOP / Tea Party as a base line.

    It's a weirdly simplistic / silly statement when measured against US politics, 1928-2020.

    643:

    colortheorytoo @ 599: Ha!

    Maybe a “Yan house”?

    I would kill for a basement here in Socal. I don’t know why most houses here don’t have basements. A basement would be the perfect place to store my ever-growing stash of pandemic/earthquake/camping supplies.

    Maybe 'cause it takes less effort to dig y'all out after an earthquake if it's slab-on-grade than it would if the house collapsed into a basement. Quicker to bulldoze it off & build again too.

    644:

    As a craft note, you should spot that we ended our weaving answering at least a certain part of Host's OP question and tied it all into a nice bow.

    2020, AIPAC gets COVID19?

    613

    It's a technique the 77th and others cannot teach, sadly.

    645:

    Most of my life Canadian, in the Toronto area.

    Though 3 years in the UK (Torbay) in the late 80s when I was in my late teens.

    And while Warren may not be left-wing from a European or world viewpoint, and arguably more complicated from an American stand point (mostly seems centrist Reagan Republican/Bill Clinton Democrat) her proposals regarding health care and Wall Street put her on the left of the American political spectrum.

    I mean, her wanting to try and deal with Wall Street put her firmly to the left of Hillary Clinton.

    646:

    whitroth @ 610: Far out. My stupid electric isn't that tilted, but let's just say when I do a cake or torte, I rotate the pans in the oven 180 halfway through cooking, if I remember.

    The problem with the electric range was that it was old & decrepid. The four heating elements each had it's own angle with the stove top. I couldn't even get a single element level. Plus I broke the glass front trying to tighten the screws holding the oven door on and the stove was so old I could no longer get repair parts.

    I was fortunately able to handle my minimal baking needs with the convection oven function on my microwave (~ 1983 JCPenney store demo model [manufactured by RCA when RCA still manufactured stuff]) I picked it up on sale when I went in there to service their fire alarm. They were setting up a display for the NEW models & were steeply discounting the older one ... and it still works GOOD after 35+ years!

    I only have a little bit of work left to do in the kitchen and none of it requires any appliances to be moved or cabinets shifted ... I didn't get enough knobs for all the cabinet doors, so I have to get half a dozen more next time I go near the big-box Home-Improvement store and I do have a section of wall next to the back door where I need to bust the plaster out, install insulation and put up new drywall. But none of that will keep me from being able to use the kitchen in the meantime.

    647:

    That's not saying what you think it's saying.

    her wanting to try and deal with Wall Street

    Ok - so what kind of answer do you want to get?

    1 Truth 2 Esoteric 3 Your fantasies 4 Unicorns where any sitting Senator in the USA hasn't already been vetted by multiple committees, PACs, social groups and .mil stuff before we get to special interest groups like AIPAC or MEK or UK or many other groups such as the Atlantic Council and so on. Oh, and they're all vetted by 5-Eyes, of course.

    Hint: you're not going to like #1, because Warren is a sitting Senator for the USA Republic and she does not have a leftist bone in her body. Nada. Doesn't exist. Cold stone technocrat who broke through Harvard and Law as a woman in USA, 1980 onwards.

    "We're Capitalists"

    Please be aware: any illusions you might have when answering #1 will swiftly vanish. Hint: not all of Wall Street dislike her, there's a large section that back her.

    648:

    P J Evans @ 630: Bernie likes the Dems as long as they allow him to use their facilities for his campaigns. He's not actually a party member, and neither are a lot of his followers (and most likely those are the loudest of the lot).

    That's something I'm not really sure about. I've had a number of people take me to task over claiming that, telling me Bernie changed his party affiliation to the Democratic Party some time in 2019. Of course, he finally changed it to the Democratic Party some time (I think right around the time of the Democratic National Convention) in 2016, but he changed it back to whatever he says it is after the election.

    If he won the nomination and got elected I'm pretty sure he'd stay a Democrat at least until his term in office was over ... pretty sure.

    649:

    mdlve @ 639: I agree Sanders isn't a real "socialist", but then again I'm not an American. Thus his policies don't scare me as I realize that they aren't radical the way many in the US think they are.

    His policies don't scare many Americans, mainly because they can't get past his claim that he's a socialist and don't have a clue what his policies actually are ... other than "Medicare for All". And the problem there is he doesn't have any kind of plan he can use to explain how to get from the campaign slogan to an actual program proposal.

    The real problem with Sanders, much like Corbyn, is he doesn't know when to quit.

    While he didn't do much (yet) to the party headquarters, he did move the party (as in the rank and file voters) to the left.

    AOC needed not just Trump, but Sanders, for her to both enter politics and succeed in getting elected. She, and other young people, built upon what Sanders helped to start."

    AOC isn't old enough to run for President yet, but she will be by the time of the 2024 election (her 35th birthday is in October 2024).

    Warren could've been an extension to that success at moving the party to the left with her ability to actually possibly get things done in DC.

    But his ego or whatever else wouldn't allow it, and instead he had to run for a second time.

    As you say, he doesn't appear to have the ground game and that is likely in part because of his superPAC aversion - he simply isn't raising enough independent money to fund the type of organization that can get out the vote in 50 states.

    But I suspect (again like Corbyn) it is also in part that with the passage of time many of the younger voters look at him as though he is past the sell by date, and thus are no longer interested in him. This is partially because he is no longer the fresh "radical" he was 4 years ago, but I suspect after 4 years of Trump it is also the realization that you need to the ability to get things done in addition to good ideas.

    Who Bernie really reminds me of is Ralph Nader, especially the role Nader played in the 2000 Bush-Gore contest.

    650:

    mdive @ 639:

    As you say, he doesn't appear to have the ground game and that is likely in part because of his superPAC aversion - he simply isn't raising enough independent money to fund the type of organization that can get out the vote in 50 states.

    I've been trying to avoid this nonsense, but this is just getting utterly bizarre.

    Sanders has a huge ground operation which is absolutely engaging in large scale GOTV operations, as has been widely reported on. Well, as much as anything about his campaign is reported on at all, given that there was a media blackout for months to the point that he was literally listed as "Other" in at least one poll that showed him ahead.

    His operation leans heavily on ground operations, with volunteers going door to door as well as large scale phone contacts. They're known in particular for reaching out to minority, especially Latino communities and immigrants. In addition, they've consistently out-raised other campaigns in direct donations and have vastly more donors.

    What they don't have is literally infinite money to blanket all media ad space, as the Bloomberg and Steyer campaigns did.

    651:

    mdive @ 629:

    It is also in a way creating an artificial distinction - while Sanders doesn't directly accept superPAC funding, there are PACs that are funding ads promoting Sander - they just aren't officially endorsed by Sanders.

    This bit was also particularly bizarre.

    The "PACs" helping Sanders are a few labor unions that endorsed him (primarily one nurse's union) which have small-budget politics operations, and a non-profit which his organization created back in 2016 to help support left-ish (for America) democrats such as AOC.

    These are extremely unlike the American "Super PAC" system which exist as a way for capitalists to dump unlimited money into elections at a moment's notice.

    There are actually at least two Bernie Sanders Super PACs... it's just that they're anti-Sanders organizations created recently to run ads specifically against him.

    652:

    Re: Preparing for Covid-19 - diet

    Okay, folks have mentioned that they're stocking up their pantries, modifying some personal habits (i.e., face-touching), etc. Not seen much about getting the body esp. the immune system into shape in case it needs to fend off this bug.

    I think a safe assumption is that one of the reasons the Covid-19 mortality rate increases with age is that the immune system gets weaker with age. (Which probably also explains at least some of the co-morbidity.) Found some videos and a book by Dr William Li, M.D. about nutrition and medicine/health. (He's authored a bunch of papers in top-tier journals, connected to major US universities/hospitals, i.e., a real scientist.)

    In the video I watched he quoted a range of studies from very small to large scale identified foods that help get stem cells* moving into the blood thence into the affected organs. Best thing is: most of these are normally available foods and easy to incorporate into an everyday diet. One of my favorites: high flavonal hot cocoa (2 cups per day for a week boosted SC two-fold). He also listed the following foods: bamboo shoots, black chokeberry, blueberries, Chinese celery, collard greens, Goji berries, green beans, green tea, mangoes, omega-3 PUFA, pistachios, plums, spinach, squid ink, turmeric.

    Local libraries might have his book on their shelves, may be worth having a read: 'Eat to Beat Disease: The New Science of How Your Body Can Heal Itself'. (Good reviews including from a Nobel Laureate - Medicine.)

    • While stem cells may not be the first line of defense with viruses, I'm guessing they might come in handy in helping to quickly rebuild damaged tissue thus buying time for the other parts of the immune system to do their job.
    653:

    Or was that was Jack in Halting State?

    Yes, Jack.

    JHomes

    654:

    Dune "I must not fear...." - Handwashing crossover - image at link;

    (source unknown) pic.twitter.com/3wqknXeBg5

    — Tynan! (@TynanPants) March 6, 2020

    SFReader @652: I've started poking through the literature as well on diet and improved resistance to viruses. Have not found much yet, or rather, there is an enormous amount of junk polluting the search results. Anyone else?

    Straight Black Hair@636: we'll see how the Rabin play works out in 2020. Interesting, did not know about that.

    655:

    The coronavirus is coming in through airports and on cruise ships. It isn't "crossing the border" (which is only a problem because some people seem to think it actually will stop The Wrong People (i.e., brown people).

    656:

    There's also a certain amount of nervousness for everyone who's been through a few. Especially when you see pics of structures that collapsed because of insufficient structural support, AKA "soft stories". (I suspect that that's why my father wanted the steel beams supporting the ground floor of the Texas house bolted in place, instead of depending on gravity. Also, he and my mother both grew up in Tornado Alley.) I know I'm more wary of multi-level parking structures now.

    657:

    FWIW, I got about eight mailers from Bloomberg, two from Steyer, and none from anyone else, before Tuesday's primary. The other races generating that kind of recycling were city council (two main candidates) and school board. Both of those got pretty nasty.

    658:

    Yeah, the Bloomberg campaign was paying staffers $72k/year starting salary, with a pulse being almost the only qualification. I heard multiple tales of anti-Bloomberg people taking his money and then either doing their job as lazily as possible, or even just dumping campaign paraphernalia in the trash and canvassing for someone else ('ahem guess who).

    Just goes to show, money can buy bodies but buying loyalty is much more complex.

    My partner was getting up to two Bloomberg flyers in the mail per day for a while. Me? I guess I'm on some list as a leftie...

    659:

    would kill for a basement here in Socal. I don’t know why most houses here don’t have basements. ...

    Maybe 'cause it takes less effort to dig ...

    It is all about cost. Here in the NC of JBS I think our footings have to be down 18" to prevent heaving. So split levels are easy but a basement requires substantial digging and a tall block/concrete wall.

    Further north when you get to needing to go down 4 feet or more at that point you can get a lot more "space" by just going down a bit more and pouring a slab inside the tall footings. You don't have to go down 9 or 10'. Just maybe 5 or 6' and then pile dirt around much of the sides or fit it into a suitable hill.

    For SoCal, AZ, NM, FL, etc... they don't typically have to worry about frost heaving so they get a main floor slab.

    660:
    It is all about cost. Here in the NC of JBS I think our footings have to be down 18" to prevent heaving. So split levels are easy but a basement requires substantial digging and a tall block/concrete wall.

    When I was looking for a house, the other thing that quickly became obvious about basements is that real estate appraisers (you know, the people the bank sends out) don't include a basement in their formulas. So, a house on a slab is valued the same as a house with a basement.

    It was also clear that realtors are trying to combat this by listing houses with basements as having twice as much living space as those without, regardless of what any pesky rules say about that. Doing an extremely shoddy remodel to add some drywall in the basement is also one of the most popular money grabs.

    But if you're going for a construction loan to build a new house, well, why would you build a basement (which costs money) when the feature has zero value according to the appraiser?

    661:

    As I indicated, I don't know whether Sanders has a ground operation or not.

    But, as I said, given the results he is getting it doesn't appear that he has one.

    And if he does indeed have a great ground operation, then things are even worse for him because the Super Tuesday results are then a clear indication that he does not have the support to win the nomination.

    The consensus seems to be the both Sanders and Biden will split the Warren supporters, I don't see anything to disagree with that - particularly given the online hatred shown by Sanders supporters towards Warren for not dropping out sooner.

    It is likely that all of Bloomberg's supporters will go to Biden, both because of his endorsement of Biden and just because.

    With that in mind, if one adds Bloomberg and Biden's Super Tuesday numbers then Sanders would have lost California and Colorado, dropping him to only 2 wins (Vermont, and a barely win in Utah).

    So if this great ground game only gets you effectively 2 out of 14 states, then Sanders has a popularity problem.

    662:

    Generalized viral resistance with regular immune systems comes down to getting enough sleep, getting enough fluids, and avoiding dietary deficiencies. "Eat your greens" is a worthwhile addendum.

    Those all have a bucket of complexity attached, but that's the basics.

    663:

    I eat a lot of these foods. In addition I’m trying to get a reasonable amount of exercise and keep up with tai chi. One supplement I’m fond of is NAC (N-acetyl cysteine). It helps your body make more glutathione. My doc had me take it for a while when we discovered my MTHFR mutation (that’s a long digression). Now I take it when I’m traveling or stressed. Will be taking while this epidemic plays out, along with a daily Vitamin D capsule and some zinc. I also adore sea buckthorn, a superfood berry from the Fenno-Scandia region. It has an insane amount of Vitamin C. Very sour.

    Gotta say though, the news is making me want to drown my sorrows in all the junk food! Apocalypse carbs for the win!

    664:

    When I was looking for a house, the other thing that quickly became obvious about basements is that real estate appraisers (you know, the people the bank sends out) don't include a basement in their formulas. So, a house on a slab is valued the same as a house with a basement.

    Appraisals are based on "conditioned space" Does the HVAC system handle the space, it is "electrified", etc...

    But if you're going for a construction loan to build a new house, well, why would you build a basement (which costs money) when the feature has zero value according to the appraiser?

    You're talking a concrete box. There's a sliding scale from that up to palace below ground.

    For me I'd love a unfinished basement to put all of my tools into and use as a workshop. If you have growing kids (my youngest is 28) then an unfinished basement CAN be a great playground without rain, mud, or pests. (And no one wandering off). It is all about what you want from the space.

    And then there are those of us with just too much "stuff" and need a place to pile it up.

    665:

    And if he does indeed have a great ground operation, then things are even worse for him because the Super Tuesday results are then a clear indication that he does not have the support to win the nomination.

    Yep. For every fervent supporter there is another middle of the road voter that will either stay home or hold their nose and vote for the big orange one.

    And refusing to believe this is refusing reality. Reality is not about what should be but what it.

    666:

    Charlie @ 589 I refuse to fly via the London airports, period. As you know, I LOATHE flying, at all - the fake secuity theatre just grates ... But LCY is by far the least-worst airport I've ever used - are there Dunedin-LCY flights? I'm told Sarfend isn't too bad ....

    Dave P @ 601 Into the 19th century, chattel slavery was practiced in Mexico and England Not even Wrong Lord Justice Mansfield, 1772: The state of slavery is of such a nature, that it is incapable of now being introduced by Courts of Justice upon mere reasoning or inferences from any principles, natural or political; it must take its rise from positive law; the origin of it can in no country or age be traced back to any other source: immemorial usage preserves the memory of positive law long after all traces of the occasion; reason, authority, and time of its introduction are lost; and in a case so odious as the condition of slaves must be taken strictly, the power claimed by this return was never in use here; no master ever was allowed here to take a slave by force to be sold abroad because he had deserted from his service, or for any other reason whatever; we cannot say the cause set forth by this return is allowed or approved of by the laws of this kingdom, therefore the black must be discharged. Sometimes this is added ... The air of England is too pure for a slave to breathe From wiki: Slavery had never been authorized by statute in England and Wales

    Slave-TRADING, as others have pointed out was barred from 1807 ... Actual slavery only lasted until 1833, mostly in the W Indes, bacause of commercial pressures, though against increasing public dissapproval. Let's have no more of this, shall we?

    Oh yes, a YouTube about 15 minutes on the RN's slave-suppression activities HERE

    US election Voter suppression & gerrymandering The latter still astounds me, though, AIUI, something is slowly being done about this. The voter-suppression by closing polling stations, etc is simply - shouldn't be allowed. Though I NOTE - the tories are thinking of trying the same thing with "voter ID" to "solve" a problem that does not exist - worrying

    667:

    It isn't "crossing the border" (which is only a problem because some people seem to think it actually will stop The Wrong People (i.e., brown people).

    Oh, yes. I went through this a few years back, when the ebola outbreak in Africa was being used to justify spending more money at the border with Mexico.

    You might fairly wonder if this was aimed at racists who didn't care about the excuse or at people unaware that Africa is not in Mexico. The answer seems to be yes, both.

    I tried to engage a right-wing friend with the idea that the money would be more effectively spent at airports, where many people enter the US, rather than in remote stretches of desert, which are famously empty. I got nowhere.

    668:

    197 dead in Italy so far.

    An even stronger sex difference than in China: over 70% of fatalities are male. Average age was 81 (I assume median rather than mean but the newspapers are terribly vague about such things).

    The sex difference seems a real thing - cultural explanations ( like Chinese men smoking much more than Chinese women ) are getting harder to credit as it goes international.

    669:

    "(Can you say Crony Capitalism Boys 'n Girls?) "

    Has to go some way to beat our HS2 railsystem, coming in at around $130billion for 300 miles of track. That's more than the cost of the average house in the UK per footstep if you were walking its length

    670:

    Dirk As usual ... "Not even wrong" Though many are wondering why a rail project here ( ANY rail project here ) cost between 2-3 times more per unit of length, compared to the same in any other European country ... [ I think it's all to do with the added "risk" figures - that & incompetence at project mismanagement - see "Crossrail" ]

    671:

    ADMINISTRATIVE NOTICE

    Further discussion of US presidential election politics is banned and posts will be deleted from now on.

    Reminder: this is not an American blog, and this is the COVID-19 thread, not the who's going to be the next POTUS thread.

    The US presidential election is highly unlikely to kill me; COVID-19, somewhat less so. (Due to pre-existing conditions I'm in the high risk bracket.)

    The US presidential crap has been swamping the much-more-important-to-the-rest-of-the-world COVID-19 discussion, and I want it to stop.

    672:

    EDI-LCY used to be served by Air France, and was my regular route for going in and out of London. Yes, I like LCY. (My "won't use London airports" was using shorthand for LHR, LGW, Luton, and Stansted.)

    Alas, AF dropped the EDI-LCY route, and now it's only served by BA, who are also on my shit-list because, well, I'm in a rival airline alliances' frequent flyer scheme and to go anywhere far away using BA would mean breaking my "no LHR or LGW" rule.

    Aaaand now let's get back to COVID-19, shall we? (I know my travel needs pretty well after living here for 25 years, and explaining them repeatedly every time someone new asks about them isn't helpful to my understanding of how to survive a pandemic.)

    673:

    HS2 isn't expensive simply because of the land the tracks will run through; it requires massive modernization to city centre stations all along its route to take the longer, wider, faster, higher-capacity express trains. It also requires building 20 or 30 km of high speed rail tunnels under London, i.e. the equivalent of CrossRail 2.0, to get those express trains in and out of the city.

    Flip side: by unloading almost all the long-haul express passenger services from a network already creaking at the seams, it massively increases commuter and freight capacity.

    I'm not convinced it's remotely well-managed, but HS2 or something similar is necessary.

    And now can we add this to the "no American politics" rule? Unless you can think of a reason why HS2 might impact the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK ...

    674:

    Charlie Not really You (anybody) is much more likely to be exposed to Corvid-19 on an overcrowded tube/normal train/bus, after all ....

    675:

    Impact of COVID-19 on the rest of the world in the long-term...

    The cruise line business is finished, or at least the segment that resembles a floating hotel aimed at older retired folks. The regular press reports of norovirus and food-poisoning outbreaks on the megaliners only foreshadowed what COVID-19 is capable of in a tightly-constrained space where the workers serving medically-compromised passengers can't be easily separated.

    Airlines are going to be taking a hammering too, I expect. They're already operating at the ragged edge financially speaking and now they're faced with a massive downturn in passenger traffic accompanied by extra costs for hygiene (aircraft cleansing, inspections at airports etc.) as well as claims for compensation for cancelled flights. Sure the terms and conditions for economy booked flights say "no refunds" but they're going to be pressured on that, by governments if not the paying public because it's not their fault they can't fly to Ibiza or elsewhere. I expect the major carriers will get financial support from their national governments but this will not be popular. The low-cost airlines (Ryanair etc.) will take a beating too but I don't know how exactly they will be affected.

    Remote working where possible is getting a big boost, a lot of stuff that's being tried is breaking but it can be and will be fixed or at least made bearable as people adapt. I've read reports of people who teach English in China moving to online classwork with varying degrees of success but as far as they're concerned it's going to be the way forward even once the current epidemic dies down. It's unlikely COVID-19 will be the last "new" disease outbreak, especially in places like China and Africa.

    We might see an end to the regular crusades against "waste" and "inefficiency" in the NHS as the cost-saving removal of any overcapacity in day-to-day operations in GP clinics and hospitals is going to hit us hard once we move into stage 3 of the epidemic here in the UK.

    676:

    FlyBe was already on death row, but COVID-19 has been credited with giving it the final shove into receivership by cutting into seat sales.

    Cathay Pacific (Hong Kong) just grounded 20% of their fleet. Other major carriers are cutting long-haul and intercontinental flights.

    (Someone in the aviation finance sector who we both know opined the other day that the impact on civil airline revenue is worse than 9/11 already, and set to last a lot longer.)

    HM Government announced that statutory sick pay would be available from day zero of time off sick during the pandemic, rather than missing out the first week. Which is good, but staff on zero hours contracts aren't eligible for SSP, and neither are the self-employed (although from the wailing and gnashing of teeth on The Register I gather the IR35 regulatory changes are finally beginning to bite.)

    But the let's-pare-NHS-spending-to-the-bone agenda of the past few years has also run into the let's-get-brexit-done lunacy and the result is all those EU passported NHS nurses we used to rely on? Are leaving in droves. The lead time on training new nurses is at least five years, and the idiots also abolished the free nursing scholarship scheme five years ago, meaning would-be nurses have to go £40,000 into student debt. (British nurses are paid a lot less than US nurses, but got their nursing degree covered free of charge.) They announced they'd bring back the nursing scholarships during the election campaign, but I'm not sure it's happened yet and it's surely too little, too late at this point ...

    677:

    A long time ago I read (and now of course I can't find where*, because search engines are all shit and focussed only on the now now now) that the main threat to airline business class travel was teleconferencing.

    So yeah, COVID-19 is great for companies that produce hand sanitiser and teleconferencing related things, not so great for companies that aim to bring people together.

    I certainly can't bring myself to morn the airlines; I would morn the local pub though.

    678:

    Actually, I have really thought about what it means, which is why I believe it's impractical.

  • We still run the courts on an "ignorance of the law is no excuse" basis, so while it's not been true for years, it's still how we treat the law. You are literally expected to know all the laws that apply to you, and not doing so is no excuse at all.

  • There are two reasons for laws to be not good enough; one is that they relate to situations that are no longer in place (e.g. The Polish Potatoes (Notification) (England) Order 2004, put in force because Poland had a disease issue in 2004 that's been cleared up), the second is that the law is not fit for purpose (e.g. section 31 of the Town Police Clauses Act 1847, which limits the penalty to 10 shillings, or 50p).

  • Yes, I do have a strong sense of how complicated those laws actually are - just the CDPA 1988 on its own is huge, and a lot of the complexity in its recent amendments is because they've discovered unintended interactions between two amendments made separately, and patched over it with a third amendment. I see those cases as ones where Parliament would, if considering the law as a whole, choose to simplify it - there are many small carve-outs that could be merged, for example.

  • Where do you get the "fourth-year high schooler" from? It sounds like you're carrying your own prejudices into this - the target is that a post-graduate law student should be able to know what all the laws of the country are, not a high schooler.

  • Again, as I've said repeatedly, this isn't practical, but it's not as impractical as you might think.

    679:

    Airlines can get fucked as far as I'm concerned. They shouldn't be "facing a massive [elective] downturn in passenger traffic", they should be seeing it drop to zero as governments the world over shut the bloody airports. Duh. The problem is that this hasn't happened.

    So they'll go bust. Good, let 'em. That gets rid of an extravagant and pointless combustor of fossil fuels which otherwise is set to be one of the last things that stops doing it. The people who use them to get expensively drunk in Ibiza can get cheaply drunk in the local pub instead, and the business twats who insist that nothing is possible without actual face to face meetings will have to get it through their thick skulls that the only thing you can't do via telecommunications but can do face to face is catch fucking deadly diseases.

    As for freight by air, that should have become a dead concept once they'd got the Berlin airlift finished with. Anywhere that isn't under siege can be reached by surface transport.

    What we should be doing is making an all out effort to limit the disease and never mind if doing that breaks things which mostly need breaking anyway. What we are doing is trying to preserve the dumb shit that we already know perfectly well makes things like this harder to control and also maximises the consequential damage, because rich shits who can employ an entire private medical staff out of pocket change want to stay rich and don't care about poor people dying of it.

    We get publicity campaigns about surviving a nuclear war by hiding under the table and not touching your face as a distraction from governments doing their best to avoid doing anything that would cost money. We get the US government apparently doing their best to sabotage the whole fucking thing and make sure as many people get it as possible because of some mindbuggeringly weird and fucked-up ideology about health services.

    We get whining about "disruption to the economy" being essential to avoid because it's needed to keep people alive after the epidemic. Not noticing that the crap we call "the economy" only keeps people alive as an unintended side effect, but stifles the response to this kind of emergency as part of its own "immune response". First deal with the problem at hand, then if "the economy" ends up fucked afterwards it can be considered a fine opportunity to replace it with a managed system that has keeping people alive as a primary design feature.

    Like Charlie, I'm in a high risk category due to pre-existing conditions. So are my parents, simply by way of surviving a long time and not having died of anything else yet. I see huge uncertainty about how bad it even is because the stats are shite. And I see that while the Chinese government is taking strong measures to try and control it even if they do cause disruption, Western governments are wibbling around doing next to fuck all because of their usual fellate-the-rich position plus a bunch of other things whose groophar stupidity I have already been strongly opposed to for years. The uncertainty, the deliberate inaction, and the inability to do anything personally except wait to catch the fucking thing, are causing me to alternate between trying not to think about it at all, and broadly undirected anger with a touch of revolutionary flavour to it.

    680:

    Each vote is on a single previous piece of legislation, as amended (most of which is published at https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ so it's easy to find). You can, of course, do rapid-fire votes to get through the legislative list in a hurry, but because it's simply the first reading stage of passing a bill (and not the full committee stages etc), it's a lot faster than passing the law originally.

    Still not practical, but it means that problems in the legislative base are noticed and removed proactively, rather than waiting for them to become problematic.

    681:

    Stansted used to be quite a good airport, and very convenient to me. But no longer.

    682:

    Looks to me like there are only really two questions.

  • Does your local health care system get overwhelmed?
  • It looks a lot like the answer to the first question is "yes" unless and until there's aggressive testing; relying on self-reporting and self-isolation doesn't get R₀ below 1.

    Health care can fail due to being overwhelmed -- more patients than the existing personnel and infrastructure can process -- and it can also fail due to logistical strangulation; no N95 masks, no gloves, oxygen masks, etc. The later looks increasingly likely to be general if the disease ramps faster than shipping and production; just-in-time inventory doesn't work for generalized surge PPE requirements. It's not likely there is excess productive capacity in the system for a significant percentage of forecast global demand. Building that capacity takes time and functioning supply chains.

    From the available information, the death rate is between three and four percent with functioning medical care, and can be expected to be about 25% in a full greenfield spread with an overwhelmed health care system. (All the folks on respirators and oxygen don't make it, plus the current mortality, plus a bit.) Looking at the 14th century, nothing much happened to politics despite the plague; I don't expect much to happen to politics as a result of COVID-19.

    I am pretty sure there will be a vaccine. I doubt there's going to be a vaccine in time.

  • Does the PRC have a crippling credit crisis?
  • The PRC borrows a lot of money, on favourable terms which suppose their last-couple-decades economic trajectory is permanent. This money mostly goes into infrastructure projects. They've just taken a major hit to the economy and may go into credit default. If so, we get 2008, worse, because it will hit manufacturing as well as the FIRE sector; we get the Greater Recession.

    The guy who runs my primary credit union speaks frankly about the period in 2008 where everyone was technically bankrupt and everyone pretended not to be; that can't be done indefinitely, and I'd expect a Greater Recession to put a lot of strain on the acting ability of the financial industry. (Especially if the world as a whole decides Uncle Sam is wearing clown shoes.)

    Even absent a Greater Recession, I think that at this point we still get a significant recession.

    Since the North Atlantic economies are already in, or teetering on the brink of, a liquidity trap (and will be until effective taxation of the rich is restored), the airlines will go out of business not merely for a lack of custom, but for a lack of hydraulic seals or air filters or something as our globally integrated supply chains unravel.

    683:

    "Looking at the 14th century, nothing much happened to politics despite the plague; I don't expect much to happen to politics as a result of COVID-19."

    Er, NO! There was a major disruption. The immediate effect was the demise of the feudal farming system, which started the modernisation of farming and the rise of the artisan class as a political and social force. The effect on politics may not have been seen immediately, but was drastic when it occurred.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_Black_Death#Social,_environmental,_and_economic_effects

    I doubt that COVID-19 will do the same, even in what is described as the 'worst-case' scenario. A 3% death rate (per population), primarily among the old and infirm? So what, socially? A true worst case could lead to the collapse of civilisation and even the extinction of the human race, of course, but even the former is extremely unlikely.

    684:

    The Black Death had a temporary effect on labour relations by creating a true labour shortage; it didn't do anything detectable to politics -- the construction of sovereignty, authority, and legitimacy -- whatsoever. Kings were still kings for the same reasons.

    I don't expect lasting collapse from this; it absolutely isn't going to help, but there are a lot of people today and communications are excellent. Disease-driven dieback to a global population of a billion wouldn't destroy civilization; we'd lose current peak capability in a lot of places, but that's more annoying than important.

    685:

    I wanted to back the seasonal flu against Tinky Winky 2 flu, however there doesn't seem to be a bookmaker willing to compile the odds.

    The best that can be done is 1/4 on the Cheltenham Festival, or you could get 7/2 on it being cancelled. That's not really an opportunity to back our native flu though? Unless Vegas can create proper odds rather than these derived odds they will contribute to media panic rather than end it, which seems significant when there is a threat to the economy. President Trump should demand that Vegas allows his ante.

    Faust sold his soul to the Devil in order to build for the future, rather than prop up a declining industry which is only the most glaring and superficial manifestation of the virtual.

    There are other concerns, over cautious medical experts might be used to discredit climate change yet prepare for a politico-medical police state. I have pre-existing health issues with this too, however mine are with how the new breathing virus appears, rather than the appearance of the new breathing virus.

    686:

    Charlie @ 676 If we are talking about the brexshiteers ... More self-defeating lunacy

    OTOH, I,'m surprised the airlines (etc) are feeling the pinch already ... let's face it this is not yet an actual pandemic, the infection rate is almost certainly below 50% ( Outside of artificial environments like Cruise Ships ...Were the margins really that thin?

    687:

    I'm getting very close to cancelling my upcoming convention travel due to COVID-19.

    First up would be Conpulsion, a local Edinburgh gaming con, on April 3-5th. This might go ahead, as it's only 3 weeks away ... depending on the doubling rate in Scotland: if COVID-19 is doubling once per 20 days (as in Wuhan now) it's probably safe, if it's doubling every 4-6 days that's probably a nope.

    Next up would be Eastercon in Birmingham (hotel room to cancel, plus membership fees): April 9th to 14th. Same proviso as for Conpulsion except Eastercon is an order of magnitude bigger and 0.5-2 doubling times later. Much less likely to go ahead, but I'm not cancelling it yet.

    Third is Satellite 7 in Glasgow, May 22-24th. This is about when the current projections show full pandemic coverage of the United States and quite possibly local pandemic coverage in the UK, I expect to hear the convention's been cancelled before this time next month.

    Fourth is ... well fuck: I was really looking forward to CoNZealand, but COVID-19 turned up before I could book more than a supporting membership and I'm guessing by July-August the global pandemic will be at peak or beginning to die down.

    The last planned convention of the year is Novacon 50 in Nottingham, in November, and I expect that if things are dying down by then (viral infections, not fans) I will be able to go.

    Anyway: these are conventions I wanted to attend, and I will still attend them if it is safe to do so. But only if it's safe. Conventions (beside being business—marketing—for me) are supposed to be fun, and worrying about contracting and dying horribly due to the Martian Death Flu is not my idea of fun. Nor is dying good for business, either.

    This should be over/controlled by this time next year: indeed, even by Novacon. If successful, I'd like to be able to resume doing conventions overseas -- including in North America, if the Tangerine Toddler is out of the Oval Office by then. Just sing a chorus of "it'll all be over by Christmas" as you wash your hands with soap and water ...

    688:

    Airlines run on surprisingly narrow margins! About two decades ago it was a truism that EasyJet had to fly with 85% or more seats occupied on every flight or they made a loss; if a seat's empty, you sell it to the first person who rolls up with £1 plus airport tax, just to make a £1-smaller loss on it.

    Flying an airliner is very nearly a recurring fixed overhead: they don't burn much extra fuel if they fly full as opposed to empty, crew/staff/maintenance costs eat as much of the budget as fuel, and airframe depreciation runs, for a Boeing 737, at roughly £1M/year or £3000/day. There are other considerations, such as parking on the stand at an airport (emphatically not cheap!) and having to fly to keep the air traffic slot available. So airlines have a constant drain of money staying in business whether or not they're carrying fare-paying passengers.

    689:

    I'm afraid I don't have much for you on the "how to avoid dying" front. Do a big shopping, stay inside, don't go inside any big tubes full of people, wash your hands frequently, finish your current projects and don't take any face-to-face meetings. I don't think there's much more you can do. Maybe some good antihistimines if you can find them.

    And it would probably help if the UK stopped allowing people from the US to enter. Trump is going to Katrina this to hell and back!

    690:

    SXSW 2020 Canceled. Austin Mayor Steve Adler and Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt both announced disaster declarations in response to the expanding coronavirus.

    https://www.npr.org/2020/03/06/813023174/the-show-will-not-go-on-sxsw-cancelled-because-of-coronavirus

    691:

    No? Look at the rise of the Commons as a political force and the extension of the franchise - many historians regard those as consequences of the Black Death, and it was certainly a factor. I believe that almost all attribute the demise of serfdom to it, and that is assuredly a political factor!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_Black_Death#Labour-saving_innovation

    692:

    Re: 'The PRC borrows a lot of money, ...'

    The PRC also holds a lot of foreign debt: currently ranked second behind Japan on US debt of approx. $1.11 trillion in Treasury holdings. No idea what they might also have in US non-Fed debt. China's foreign debt to GDP ratio is very low.

    693:

    John Oliver, host of “Last Week Tonight” (HBO) explains the COVID-19 crisis with a combination of satire, humor, and seriousness. I found it very educational:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c09m5f7Gnic&feature=emb_logo

    694:

    Those "temporary" labour shortages (which went on for generations) set off a class war between the peasantry with their new ability to start to dictate their own terms, and the ruling classes attempting to counter that by using force to uphold the status quo. This eventually led to the Peasants' Revolt, and although the revolt itself was quickly put down and so gets more or less written off as an isolated incident in the school history narrative, it did have significant results. The rioters' proximate grievance - the poll tax - was addressed, rather than dismissed with their defeat; it successfully conveyed the message to the ruling classes that oppressive taxes to support private vanity projects would not be tolerated indefinitely, and was an important initial step towards eventual parliamentary representation for everyone regardless of status. Shortly afterwards, the feudal system was dismantled; this pretty much removed the foundation from the whole structure of power, and much of the story of the next three hundred years or thereabouts is a fumbling quest to come up with a new foundation mostly without understanding that that's what they were doing. In both of these we can see the initiation of the conditions that eventually ended up with Charlie Stu getting a sore neck.

    Immediately after the Black Death kings were indeed still kings "because my dad was" or "because I killed the last one". But some considerable time later it became "we'll allow you to be king because your dad was, as long as you don't start being too much of a wanker - don't forget that we killed the last one"; and the shock to the political system from the Black Death was an important part of what made that possible. The political change it brought about may not have been immediate, but it was profound.

    695:

    Clamshell laptop to me just means one with a hard case that's got a good hinge and a good closure latch (i.e., not a magnetic or similar).

    I can well believe that Apple originated the term, but clams predate them, and the meaning "like the shell of a clam" is pretty blatant.

    696:

    Ha! Was composing mine while you were posting that. Thank you for providing confirmation that my post-school self-education has provided what the school one didn't.

    697:

    OK, there's lots of reasons to try to slow the spread, but there is one thing to remember: With community transmission happening, and asymptomatic carriers, everyone WILL eventually be exposed to COVID-19. It's going to happen. What I'm hoping is to delay my being exposed until after I've been vaccinated against it, which I estimate (based on garbage info) to be a couple of years. Since I'm in one of the high risk groups I find this a bit distressing.

    698:

    David L @ 659:

    would kill for a basement here in Socal. I don’t know why most houses here don’t have basements. ...
    Maybe 'cause it takes less effort to dig ...

    It is all about cost. Here in the NC of JBS I think our footings have to be down 18" to prevent heaving. So split levels are easy but a basement requires substantial digging and a tall block/concrete wall.

    Further north when you get to needing to go down 4 feet or more at that point you can get a lot more "space" by just going down a bit more and pouring a slab inside the tall footings. You don't have to go down 9 or 10'. Just maybe 5 or 6' and then pile dirt around much of the sides or fit it into a suitable hill.

    For SoCal, AZ, NM, FL, etc... they don't typically have to worry about frost heaving so they get a main floor slab.

    There should be a humor font for when you're trying to make a funny, but not trying to be sarcastic. There's the "code" tag for sarcasm (have to use the "TT" tag here), why isn't there a humor tag?

    I don't know why they don't have basements in California. I have one because my front yard is 6' higher than my back yard and whoever built the house wanted the foundation so the house would be at street level in the front.

    699:

    What you need to remember is that the US revolution against the British government had multiple causes, with different groups supporting it for different reasons. E.g. one of the reasons some people had was because the British government was preventing them from breaking treaties with the Indians. And also even at the time the sentiments were quite divided. Only about 1/3 of the population really supported the revolution and an about equal 1/3 were really opposed to it. Proportions varied in different parts of the country, largely based around how well they were doing economically.

    700:

    Re: 'I don't know why they don't have basements in California.'

    Earthquakes? Or, hardly any soil until you hit rock making it expensive to dig out for the financial return.

    I don't know -- just guessing.

    701:

    mdlve @ 661: As I indicated, I don't know whether Sanders has a ground operation or not.

    But, as I said, given the results he is getting it doesn't appear that he has one.

    Whether he has one or not, it doesn't appear that he has an EFFECTIVE "ground operation".

    And if he does indeed have a great ground operation, then things are even worse for him because the Super Tuesday results are then a clear indication that he does not have the support to win the nomination.

    The consensus seems to be the both Sanders and Biden will split the Warren supporters, I don't see anything to disagree with that - particularly given the online hatred shown by Sanders supporters towards Warren for not dropping out sooner.

    I have some questions about the source of the Bernie Bro nastiness. I wonder how much of it is coming from his true believers and how much is Russian trolling trying to piss people off at Bernie. It's pretty clear to me that the Russians ARE interfering in the process the Democrats are using to choose their nominee, while at the same it looks like they want a weakened Sanders to be the nominee because they think Trumpolini has a better chance of beating him.

    Sanders needs to be more proactive in reining in the more idiotic fringes among his supporters & needs to take a stronger stance repudiating the Russian trolls false-flag operation in his campaign. Otherwise, he's just going to act the spoiler again like he did in 2016. If he can't bring the party together around him, he's not going to be able to accomplish any of his announced goals.

    702:

    My information came from the same source :-)

    703:

    [quote]BTW, in the USA what happened to all those "FEMA Concentration Camps" the wingnuts were going on about a while back?[/quote]

    They (probably) exist and they (probably) aren't going to be useful unless you want the incarcerated to die. I believe they're basically barbed wire enclosed fields with a few buildings on them without heating or sanitation. Whether they were really intended as "FEMA Concentration Camps" is dubious. I think they're military bases that never got finished, but what do I know. They could easily be converted into concentration camps with minimal work. Turning them into hospitals would be much more work.

    704:

    Charlie Stross @ 671:

    ADMINISTRATIVE NOTICE

    Further discussion of US presidential election politics is banned and posts will be deleted from now on.

    Will Comply, but please don't ban me for comments I posted this morning before I saw your notice.

    705:

    Nojay @ 675: Impact of COVID-19 on the rest of the world in the long-term...

    The cruise line business is finished, or at least the segment that resembles a floating hotel aimed at older retired folks. The regular press reports of norovirus and food-poisoning outbreaks on the megaliners only foreshadowed what COVID-19 is capable of in a tightly-constrained space where the workers serving medically-compromised passengers can't be easily separated.

    It's not just cruise lines. The resort/travel/hospitality/entertainment/convention industry is going to take it on the chin and will be a long time recovering. There will be ripple effects throughout the world economy from all the people who are going to lose their jobs due to the downturn.

    706:

    The cruise liner biz is the one that's forefronting the bad press reports about COVID-19, lots of pictures the cruise companies won't want on the brochures selling next year's cruising season. That association is what will hit them really hard. I'm trying hard to think what the giant cruise liners left without customers could be repurposed for -- hospital ships perhaps?

    Once the epidemic dies down then generally it will be Business As Usual for most of the hospitality world. Charlie and I are front and centre for the Edinburgh BloodyFestivalBloodyBloody every August. If COVID-19 is still a serious problem by then this year then I'm going to be interested in seeing what an Edinburgh summer is like without the usual hordes of Epileptic Estonian Elvis Impersonators roaming the cobbled streets of the Old Town. Saying that hordes of Mad Max re-enactors is probably a more worrying prospect.

    707:

    I've started poking through the literature as well on diet and improved resistance to viruses. Have not found much yet, or rather, there is an enormous amount of junk polluting the search results. Anyone else?

    Well, this is a few decades old, but the answer is "It's different for different viruses." When I read it I didn't have any subclassification of viruses, and was quite surprised to find that some viruses prefer someone who is healthy and well fed, others prefer someone who is under stress (cold, wet, etc.) and others prefer one of several deficiencies.

    Since COVID-19 is a corona virus, like the cold, I'm going to assume that you should avoid thermal stress, be sure to have plenty of fluids, and have sufficient vitamin C. (An orange a day should do it if the rest of your diet is reasonable.)

    Note that this isn't a magic bullet. It's just "This is way you do to stay as healthy as you can manage.".

    OTOH, since COVID-19 seems to preferentially target the elderly and the diabetic, it seems rather different that the normal cold viruses, so who knows.

    708:

    Plus enough vitamin D, zinc and probably most of the other vitamins and minerals - adequate D and zinc are needed for the immune system.

    709:

    Airlines can get fucked as far as I'm concerned. They shouldn't be "facing a massive [elective] downturn in passenger traffic", they should be seeing it drop to zero as governments the world over shut the bloody airports. Duh. The problem is that this hasn't happened.

    Don't be ridiculous.

    Isolating for 14 days people arriving from infected places makes sense.

    Stopping all air travel does not make sense and is a bloody stupid suggestion.

    Most places are not more infected than where you are. You're at no more risk on a plane than in a train. Or a long-distance bus. Or a movie theater.

    You're proposing screwing with many people's lives. Including mine, if the timing is wrong - I'm not spending months trapped unable to get home to my family when I've no real risk of carrying an infection. Fuck off!

    I've an old friend from Reading visiting here in Wellington for a mutual friend's wedding. (Awesome wedding, BTW, more brides should vow that they'd slay Reavers for their husband). You think he should be trapped here, unable to return to the UK, for months? WHY? He's got a job and mortgage. NZ has lower infection rates than the UK. What bloody risk is there?

    I and my workmates travel internationally for work about once 2-3 months couple of months. Great fun the first 3 times, bloody drag for the next 20 years. We will cut down our own travel. But if you simply shut down all air transport then you're proposing trapping whoever of us was in Melbourne or Sydney or London at the time thousand of miles from our children, our homes, our work. For months! Fuck off!

    Most of us are not retirees with minimal commitments. We have jobs, and families. Cutting down on reasons to travel makes sense. Shutting down meetings and conventions makes sense. But simply shutting down all travel is bloody stupid idea.

    710:

    I’m not sure what you have against magnetic closures for laptops but I’ve never had any problems over, what, 20 years? Anyway, the term ‘clamshell’ probably predates any Apple laptop; I used to work for a chap that had a nice income from a basic patent for the clamshell layout and hinging design. IIRC the company involved was Grid.

    711:

    Quotes from an Italian Doctor, regarding Corvid-19 ... ( Taken from an "Indie" article ) GET READY / The big challenge will be keeping the anaesthetic service going. Anaesthetic staff are most at risk because we deal with patients airways / Younger patients were being affected, saying the ages of patients ranged from 46 to 83 with only a small number having important underlying conditions / The latest days are showing a younger population involved as if the elderly and weaker part of the population crashed early and now younger patients, having exhausted their physiological reserves, come to overcrowded, overwhelmed hospitals with little resources left. End of selected quotes.

    Charles H "Asytptomatic Carriers" ( "Typhoid Mary" ) - yes, that's a/the real problem, isn't it?

    Charlie Is Novacon before or after the US "election"? @ 688 And the complete fucking utterly useless arseholes who were supposedly "running" this country 1960-2018 & the USA 1955-present claimed (still claim) that RAILWAYS were/are "Inefficient" & should be got rid of? You WHAT?

    Pigeon ENTIRELY correct ... even Liz I of glorious memory, knew there were limits to her power ... when she was getting old (VERY old by the standards of the time) for a ruler, she allowed her advisers (& herself) to go too far in money-extracting ( "Monopolies ") There wasn't actually a revolt, but it got serious enough that, the guvmint backed down & her last, second-most famous speech ( The Golden Speech" - 13/11/1601) resulted.. There is no jewel, be it of never so rich a price, which I set before this jewel: I mean your love. For I do esteem it more than any treasure or riches; for that we know how to prize, but love and thanks I count invaluable. And, though God hath raised me high, yet this I count the glory of my Crown, that I have reigned with your loves.

    Google for "Golden Speech" for full details & text.

    712:

    Elderly Cynic, Pigeon --

    The Black Death happened nigh-everywhere in Europe, not just England. That the English wound up with the Glorious Revolution and the supremacy of Parliament is much more down to Devil Henry (absolutely no one could believe that Henry II Plantagenet cared what God thought, so the legitimacy of English kings could not rest on divine favour and founder effects took over in English institutions) and the social consequences of the military needs of archer armies (not only do you have to arm base-born men and stand beside them, you have to arrange things at home so you can still collect your rents despite having militant tenants) than the Plague; the Plague happened, it was a thing, but the English experience of it just exacerbated and continued existing English trends. Just like nigh-everywhere else; city-states stayed city-states, divine monarchs stayed divine monarchs, the great majority of serfs stayed serfs. It is likely England would have been a moderately piratical marcher state with an unusually flat social structure without the plague.

    There really isn't much evidence for plague ever changing political structures or systems; the most you can generally argue for is speeding some existing trend up. Exceptions are for diseases so bad that the population drops below the level required to support the incumbent social complexity. (The post-Columbian depopulation by disease hypothesis, for example.)

    (I do find it interesting that the estimated death rates for the Antonine Plague and the Plague of Justinian both run around 25%.)

    713:

    A few months ago airlines were panicking about undercapacity due to all the grounded 737MAXs. I guess that worry has gone away?

    714:

    The feudal system collapsed over almost all of western Europe, and most historians regarded the Black Death as either the cause or the trigger. You may thinks that they were/are wrong, but I don't.

    715:

    Almost all political conflict, especially in the US, boils down to a fight between the Sane Billionaires and the Insane Billionaires. It generally follows this template:

    INSANE BILLIONAIRES: Let's kill everyone and take their money!

    SANE BILLIONAIRES: I like the way you think. I really do. But if we keep everyone alive, and working for us, we'll make even more money, in the long term.

    INSANE BILLIONAIRES: You communist!!!

    • Jonathan Schwarz
    716:

    Mike Pence is on CNN now, explaining how the Department of Homeland Security, CDC, and Coast Guard have struck this really excellent deal with the Cruise Ship industry to work on Corona Virus issues. (Is this just nuts, or is it sending an important message to both businesses and older republicans that the Trump Administration has their backs?)

    Definitely a WTF moment, whatever the intent!

    717:

    I'm getting a little sick and tired of all this crapping on air travel for its global warming emissions. I looked up several sites for global warming emissions and the figures are somewhat at variance, so my quoted figures are approximate.

    Air travel is responsible for approximately 2% of global warming emissions. This compares to steel production 4%, cement production 5%, rice cultivation 1.7%

    The big contributors to global warming are electrical power and heating (25%). Agriculture, forestry and land clearance (25%), and industrial process heat (20%). Transportation comes in next at 15%.

    In the US, 8% of transportation emissions are by commercial aircraft. By far the bulk of transportation emissions come from cars and light trucks. Converting 15% of your road vehicles to carbon zero electricity would have the same effect of eliminating all commercial flights.

    Commercial aircraft have been getting consistently more fuel efficient over time (not out of the goodness of their hearts, but to lower running costs), and a modern commercial flight burns about as much fuel per seat mile as a single person driving the same distance in a car.

    With the various technologies that are in the pipeline, by 2050, their fuel burn will be about 1/2 what it is today.

    Also, the air transportation industry has come up with a CO2 emissions reduction plan that involves, substituting a gradually increasing amount of net zero fuel in their fuel mix until by 2050 aviation fuel will be net carbon zero. This seems like a practical plan to me if we could get the world political community behind it.

    Basically, I see the flight shamers as people who are reducing CO2 emissions by guilt-tripping other people into doing their dirty work for them.

    718:

    2. Does the PRC have a crippling credit crisis?

    They might well! But not the way you mean it. The Chinese govt is fine.

    But China could have something a lot like the 2008 Credit Crisis in the USA and Europe. A Liquidity Crisis for firms (that is, no money on hand to pay the bills, which causes bankruptcies even if in theory their assets are worth a bit because you can't sell those assets for real value since no-one is buying right now).

    China is in some ways like Spain in 2008: many Chinese banks are over-leveraged and have put money into big Chinese real estate developers' grand schemes. Which makes the bank money while the boom is on, but means they are running high levels of risk. Especially poorly regulated banks, once they get hit with bad debts.

    Attendees at Financial Risk conferences in Asia have been worrying about this for years.

    China hasn't been through a real recession since the big boom started decades ago. They have an entire generation of bankers who've never seen anything but a boom. The Chinese regulators have also never seen a real bust, so there's been a lot of pressure to let banks make big loans, especially to well-connected firms. There has always been a risk that when the boom stops, the result will be a credit crisis.

    If so it could take many months (or more than a year) to really happen as firms attempt to juggle money... and then suddenly happen all at once as firms go down like dominos.

    Interesting times.

    719:

    Plus enough vitamin D, zinc and probably most of the other vitamins and minerals - adequate D and zinc are needed for the immune system. Thanks for the reminder on vitamin D. Google scholar shows quite a bit of dispute over the last couple of decades (or more) on vitamin D and respiratory infections, but these meta-analyses (shared authors) are enough to convince me that deficiency is a bad idea. (They do note substantial heterogeneity of results.) Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections (JANUARY 2019, pdf) We also showed that vitamin D had greater protective effects when it was given daily or weekly to people with the lowest vitamin D levels: the risk of having at least one ARI was reduced from 60% to 32% in these individuals Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: individual participant data meta-analysis. (Word Doc, 2019) Conclusions: Vitamin D supplementation was safe, and it protected against acute respiratory infections overall. Very deficient individuals and those not receiving bolus doses experienced the most benefit. Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory tract infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data (15 February 2017, PDF)

    The literature on Arginine and the immune system (e.g. helper T-cells) is even crazier. (Cancer suppression/progression is also full of papers.)

    720:

    Mike Pence is on CNN now, explaining how the Department of Homeland Security, CDC, and Coast Guard have struck this really excellent deal with the Cruise Ship industry to work on Corona Virus issues. Link? Rhetorical question: Why is my immediate reaction mobile quarantine centers, to be converted to mobile prisons reeducation centers after The Emergency?

    721:

    Why is my immediate reaction mobile quarantine centers

    Cruise ships are provably crap as quarantine centres given the amount of cross-contamination reported on board several of them. A real quarantine centre isolates suspect and proven cases from others as much as possible. Cruiseliners might, just might work for that purpose if only a few dozen patients were allocated to each cruiseliner with lots of airlock doors, filtered ventilation, sterilisation equipment etc. per person. Packing a thousand infected people on board plus the medical staff to treat and monitor them plus crew to feed and care for everyone is not a goer, it would only result in two thousand infected people.

    A purpose-built quarantine facility is a better bet, even something lashed up on open ground using shipping containers... but most of the world's supply of spare shipping containers is currently parked in Chinese factories and ports for some reason. Bit of a conundrum that.

    722:

    Did you see the brief news clip of the motel sign being painted black?

    Turns out some US county needed a place to put people for quarantine -- they're not sick, and they might not get sick -- so they bought a budget motel that happened to be for sale. All the rooms have individual HVAC and don't connect, so it turns out to be a pretty decent extemporized solution to the problem.

    724:

    Link?

    Watched in on the TV I'm afraid. But you can probably go to Google News and type something like "Pence Cruise Ships."

    Rhetorical question: Why is my immediate reaction mobile quarantine centers, to be converted to mobile prisons reeducation centers after The Emergency?

    Maybe, but I think it more likely that Cruise Ships and old people are the biggest thing Trump/Pence imagines they are competent to handle.

    725:

    You're proposing screwing with many people's lives.

    While you're proposing to kill most people.

    One of those things is kind of annoying, the other is the act of a genocidal maniac.

    The pandemic could be the start of a useful discussion about how we get to near-zero air travel, or it could be a momentary blip on the path to less than a billion people alive in 2100. I know which option I prefer. All the plans for net zero emissions by 2050 are predicated on a slow fall over time, not "keep increasing emissions until 2049, then stop". That latter course presumes something like global nuclear war, because sudden stops require savage measures to implement them. Even the Chinese took over a month to go from "Wuhan in quarantine" to "no-one in, no-one out of Wuhan".

    726:

    sick and tired of all this crapping on air travel for its global warming emissions.

    Can you just explain for the hard of thinking how "1-2% annual reduction in emissions per passenger kilometre" combined with "3-5% annual growth in passenger-kilometres" gets us to zero emissions from air travel? That's the current requirement, and what I'm seeing looks like absolute dedication to not meeting the requirement.

    So in the context of air travel being 3% of the total now and the other 97% being reduced to zero, it appears to my simple mind that by 2050 we should have the entirety of global emissions coming from the airlines.

    727:

    ahem. Please, step aside, you're waaaay behind the curve.

    https://time.com/5796035/coronavirus-saudi-arabia-iran-islam-mecca/

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1252166/pope-health-latest-pope-coronavirus-vatican-city-outbreak-italy

    Three days ago, but it was on our radar a little bit before.

    Note: TIME / EXPRESS, yes, crosswords are for the terminally dull.

    ~You may grep comments on Black Cubes, clearing spaces and "what is inside" (Women) and ponder just how much you're being fucked with. And by what. We claim our Status as Justified and Honored[-1].

    ANYHOOOOO - looks like COVID19 has actually sprung the Oil trap[0] and RU is reckoning that CAN will break before USA etc and OPEC get their shit together. On the week in which SHELL / PR not only jumped the shark but basically committed suicide[1]. It's a shale war folks and it's gonna light you up.[2]

    Given the links in #636 you'll probably want to buckle up as this gets interesting.

    And by interesting we don't mean "OOOH NOO, SHELF IS EMPTY OF BOG-ROLL", we're talking real stuff.

    ~

    Or not[3].

    [-1] And we're really fucking tired. The 9th. Don't put that shit into your pawns mouths, especially without their conscious self-awareness.

    [0] Lotta lotta distressed assets out there. Trillioons. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1087689.Trillions -- fun book.

    [1] https://twitter.com/theyesmen/status/1236040856571871240 -- If you do not know who the Yes Men are/were, well. Big in the late 1990's.

    [2] The deepest ironies being how the warm winter totes fucked it for a load of companies.

    [3] "Put a bullet in its head" - yeah. OOOPS.

    728:

    No, really.

    SHELL really did pitch and run a "She'll" faux inclusivity "women" wash in 2020. This shite was trite in 2002 let alone now.

    And we just read the people who made it, the people who work in the industry and the people who signed off on its responses. "So proud of you on your first fucking slavery drive!"

    Let's just say: makes Danton look like a fucking Saint.

    ~ If you want to know how clueless and vulnerable they are, whelp. All it would need is something else added to the pot[0].

    [0] Mexico violence: Why were two butterfly activists found dead? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-51488262 - easy answer: avocados make as much money as cocaine.

    Defending Warren. LOL.

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/2943/text

    You'll notice there's fuck all past the wall in there. [The wall is space btw]

    729:

    Sorry, we'll be clear.

    If you want really wild shit[-1], whelp, none of this is it. This is all pale-face bollocks.

    ٱلْحَجَرُ ٱلْأَسْوَد

    Let's talk about reuniting the stone with the stolen fragments that were never recovered[0] and how it would take 'the TIME/PROCESSION/FLOW emptied of all of Adam'[1] to get it done.

    Just sayin.

    Probably not the best time for cynical Western Princes to start bumping off / arresting all their opponents.

    But hey, it's not the Full Moon yet.

    [-1] And not your bullshit CIA "Horses flying in the sky" stuff that you're embarrassed to have run Alex Jones style.

    [0]ابو طاهر سلیمان الجنّابي‎

    [1] That's a rough translation because, phew boy: you think poking a few IL settler fanatics or Turkish KB warriors is rough, that shit attracts real W- stuff.

    ~

    We're the real deal, "MATE".

    Remember us ?

    730:

    Every new lie of advertising is an avowal of the previous lie.

    My Storm Wuhan project failed its first simple test, as expected. It seems that Wuhan was the Three Towns of Wuhan- Wuchang, Hankou and Hanyang. Wuhan 'different every day'. The KMT created Wuhan in 1927 to make a new capital for China.

    Theresa May visited Yellow Crane Tower in 2018, apparently she believed she was on a £10bn poultry export trip. Then in 2019 when Don't Hide The Pain Hammond was Chancellor, a former pottery firm director decided to threaten China with the brand new HMS Queen Elizabeth. This sabotaged the trade talks, and he was sacked. He has since become the Secretary of State for Education.

    The yellow crane has long since gone away All that remains here is Yellow Crane Tower

    731:

    ~Ahhahaha.

    No, reality is much worse.

    Prince Andrew hires General Pinochet's former lawyer as he fights FBI Epstein probe

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2020/03/06/prince-andrews-legal-team-revealed-fights-fbi-epstein-probe/

    Get up, Stand up, Epstein didn't kill himself.

    Let me tell you about heart-ache and the loss of G_D, wandering, wandering through hopeless nights... out here on the perimeter there are no Stars, we is stoned, immaculate

    And then track down the soulless fucks who tried to alter those lyrics.

    Sticks and stones may break my bones But words will never hurt me.

    ~

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FOUqQt3Kg0

    Better learn.

    P A R A D O X

    A

    R

    A

    D

    O

    X

    ~

    Sad thing is, didn't even have to bring the big guns to shatter your reality.

    732:

    And yeah.

    Do the grep - us to Martin over Pinochet.

    FUCK ME, WE DIDN'T KNOW IT WAS THIS EASY.

    Time is a flat circle.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j60l_BbQHJY

    733:

    Triptych.

    Words missing: "Out Here".

    The rest, you evil little gremlins, is vapid denial and destruction of anything that doesn't submit to your pitiful little Minds.

    ~

    Still.

    Coronavirus detected in attendee at CPAC meeting, which many White House officials attended less than two weeks ago

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1236425504904921089

    Never let it be said that AIPAC is not bipartisan.

    734:

    As I understand it, the general rules for figuring square footage of houses don't include bathrooms or basements. My parents had a 1200-square-foot house with about 500 square feet of basement that wasn't visible from outside.

    735:

    The death rate seems to be less than 1% for people under 40 years old. It seems to go up rapidly in the 50-plus groups - more than 8% for people in their 70s and 18% for people 80 and up.

    736:

    While you're proposing to kill most people

    Oh, FFS Moz. You're smarter than that.

    Are you really claiming that "most people" are going to die from Covid19? Or that air travel between - eg - NZ and Australia is the significant vector in spreading the disease? Or between London and Dublin?

    Or are you referring to climate change? Air travel makes up less than 3% of global carbon emissions - are you claiming that 3% is what is going to kill us all? Even Greta Thunberg isn't calling for an immediate halt to all air travel: read what she said about her yacht trip across the Atlantic - she didn't expect everyone to do what she did, she was making the point that most people can't do what she did.

    You wanna talk about transitioning to reduce carbon use in international transport then I am totally on board. We could have more efficient transport if we were willing to pay for it.

    You wanna talk about working to change our economies to stop the increase in air travel that looks likely over the next few decades, then I'm in. Half my business travel is because clients put a high value on face-to-face meetings, change business people's expectations and I can stay home more.

    But if you wanna propose an immediate closing of the airports and immediate ban to all air travel - which is exactly what Pigeon was proposing - then I'm going to tell you to stop being stupid.

    So stop being stupid.

    737:

    Older houses in California may have basements - or half-basements. It's fast and cheap, though, to build on slab, and that's been the mode for the last 70 years. Easier to have some kind of basement if you're on the side of a hill and going to be excavating for foundations anyway. (It also depends on soil types.)

    738:

    So stop being stupid.

    COVID19 is a "best possible world" virus.[0]

    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

    It's LITERALLY on the low tier end of stuff you should expect your society to encounter in a warming world.

    YK2 problem, but shit you're not supposed to know about[1].

    [0] And if you think making it this fucking easy was easy, you're a muppet.

    [1] WeWork is still slavery to eloi muppets blinded by bling

    739:

    COVID19 is a "best possible world" virus.[0]

    Aha! You are revealed!

    Your true identity is - Dr Pangloss!

    740:

    It depends. Some areas you can go down quite a way before hitting anything even close to rock - the area where I grew up is known to have up to 3km of mixed clay and gravel. Some plants love it - wine grapes in particular. It used to provide a lot of the sand and gravel for the regional building industry. (In the Central Valley, they think the rock may be as much as 6 to 8km down.)

    741:

    I strongly suspect some of mine were against to neutral, given that they got taxed something like 5 pounds in 1776-1777 for being "non-jures" which, AFAICT, means they hadn't taken an oath of allegiance to the new state government.

    742:

    And you're not even just failing the easy grade shit, you're totally fluffing every step of it[0] and not only that.... you're shitting the bed when East Asia is at least doing the work[1].

    Aaaaaaaaand: if you missed it, this is the entire world learning that Western Countries (USA specifically) are not the 'Shining Light Upon the Hill' but actually, really really really narcissistic slave states.

    Like, not even better than RU or UAE.

    ANNNND

    (and this is the important bit)

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/06/jp-morgan-chief-jamie-dimon-has-emergency-heart-surgery

    Archons be getting frisky.

    No, really.

    You can torture people in Abu - Cuba or Black sites or where-ever, and you might have a few Archon HOPs[2] like Mammon around and a few nukes.

    But the new gals?

    They burn Minds out for the shit you've done.

    shrug

    Crack open the cube, it's only ~13,500 years of anger to deal with. Pretty sure you'll be fine there, "ICE MAN".

    [0] This is a dance party to [redacted] who want to stress test your Minds and run shit and games you will die from. No, really.

    [1] Hello Vietnam! Positively this time.

    [2] Higher Order Power

    743:

    Ah, Grid! I got to see a couple of their prototypes, way way back. (Teacher Knew Someone.) They were impressive.

    744:

    No, look at the numbers and the stress test. This is easy mode shit for slaves.

    Hint: unlike Jamie, they couldn't break our Heart. And they did a whollllle lot more to our biochemistry and neurological makeup trying to.

    A Lot. Lot. More.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r26krlXFmOI

    745:

    Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections

    Hm. If that should be true (I have no idea), it might relate to why Mesoamerica and Equatorial Africa have gotten off fairly lightly(*) so far.

    (*) So to speak.

    746:

    I eat about 4 cups of veg a day, due to having a mild case of type-2 diabetes (diet and drugs are keeping me from losing, so far.) Also vitamin supplements because some are otherwise insufficient - iron and B-complex, mostly.

    747:

    Re: 'You (anybody) is much more likely to be exposed to Corvid-19 on an overcrowded tube/normal train/bus, after all ....'

    I think they're going to find this out soon in Toronto:

    'The latest patient diagnosed with COVID-19 recently travelled to Las Vegas and used public transit in Toronto for several days before he was tested for the virus, according to the Toronto public health authority.'

    https://globalnews.ca/news/6639525/ontario-covid-19-case-las-vegas/

    748:

    See also: California's HSR project. They haven't yet figured out how they're going to get from Bakersfield to L.A., and the louder proponents don't seem to have a clue that I5 isn't a suitable route. When - if! - it gets to the L.A. area, it's going to f*ck up the regional commuter rail, which is the route they want to use because it already has tracks...and is mostly a 50-to-100-foot right of way, far too narrow for HSR. (They don't yet seem to get that people don't want to have to travel an extra 10 or 15 miles to a HSR station, when the existing commuter station was only two or three miles away.)

    749:

    A recent Chinese study suggest that kids actually are catching the virus just as much as adults. Just not expressing symptoms as much.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w

    That's important. Because kids aren't suffering from Covid-19 much. So we don't need school closures to protect the kids. If schools close it will be to protect us from the kids spreading the disease. That study suggests they could be - because they catching it as easily as adults do.

    But does the lack of symptoms mean they aren't very infectious because they are not coughing their nasty germs all over the room the way adults are?
    As far as I know, we've no idea.

    (Of course the answer may depend on age - 2-year-olds are famously snotty and gooey, 12-year-olds not so much.)

    And from the NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/opinion/coronavirus-schools-closed.html

    Study of the 1918 flu pandemic in the USA showed that schools spread the flu a lot. School closures were effective, but only if (a) it was done early before the virus was widespread, and (b) it was done for a long time-period. You needed to do it before the infection is rife in the community, and keep it up until it's gone, or it did not help.

    Same academics looked at Michigan school closures for the 2009 H1N1 flu: 83% were late, reactive school closures after the infection was widespread in the community - and when they closed the schools after the virus was widespread it was completely ineffective.

    So it seems there is a "go hard early or it won't work" choice about closing the schools, and that it's choice that must be made we don't yet know if it's worth it.

    Tricky.

    750:

    Italy is locking up Milan in the hope of containing this outbreak. Haven't taken a close look at the world map but it seems as though it's the major business centers that are being affected. If this is the case worldwide, then everybody's economy will take a similar hit at the same time so there's no one 'loser'. (DT and similar only care about winning/not losing so everyone agreeing to take a time out in order to get this virus under control might be saleable to him.)

    Urban areas - the invisible/ignored other high risk populations ...

    Okay - if this ends up being a primarily urban pandemic then what about the urban homeless? I'm guessing that they - like the very elderly and folks with serious medical conditions - would also be at high risk of coming down with this virus. Not sure how likely they are to spread the virus outside their communities though because most urban folk ignore/avoid them. This habit of ignoring homeless people sleeping on sidewalks or in parks could also mean they could get critically ill and die before anyone checked on them.

    I'm guessing the homeless haven't come up as an at-risk population because most of the news coverage has been focused on China and from the media coverage, they don't seem to have this problem to the same extents as major North American cities. (I've no idea what homelessness is like in other countries.)

    751:

    Dear Pangloss,

  • It's Hawk. The Man is someone else.

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZTDuynXqRI

  • Looking at the numbers and stress testing is my day-job.

  • I'd forgotten how far down the rabbit-hole one goes when talking to you. Mind the walrus.

    752:

    You wanna talk about transitioning to reduce carbon use in international transport

    The shape of necessity is to stop all fossil carbon extraction, in any form, from anywhere, as soon as possible. By 2000 would have been much better; by 2050 is far too late. Every-nerve-and-sinew effort by 2025 is entirely worth doing.

    There is no way to keep any form of the current status quo. There is no way to keep the Holocene, either. The sooner we switch the less it costs. (It's rather like fixing a leaky roof. Now, if not sooner, to limit the damage.)

    COVID-19 is quite likely to drop oil demand, because it's quite likely to lead to at least a major recession; if that happens, the extraction price for a bunch of varieties of fossil carbon is going to go over the market price, which means the usual mechanisms of the market will dismantle those industries.

    Thing is, the last couple times that's happened, public money has gone into maintaining those industries. That's not even slightly in the public interest.

    753:

    Hm. If that should be true (I have no idea), There is a lot of argument on the subject, but the evidence is clearer that low vitamin D levels are associated with increased risk of acute respiratory infection. Whether it's causal, I don't know, but it is probably wise to supplement in those cases.

    754:

    Thing is, the last couple times that's happened, public money has gone into maintaining those industries. That's not even slightly in the public interest. Yes, there are opportunities here, especially if positive changes are baked-in.

    755:

    Hint: unlike Jamie,... FWIW, The sinister, glowing Saudi orb that Trump touched in a viral moment was given as a gift to the US, which then hid it out of embarrassment, new book says.[1] (i.e. I [remember] botching something embarrassingly badly then, for which I apologize.) [1] Article says it is in embassy storage, not hidden/lost in a cavernous warehouse in the US.

    756:

    are you claiming that 3% is what is going to kill us all?

    No, I'm claiming that the sum total of all "greater than 3%" sources is about 25%. So, we remove them and... we listen to great master icehawk, who tells us that as long as no one thing is over 3% of the problem everything is fine. The good news for you is that the fatality rate from Covid-19 is less than 3%. The bad news is that as the smart people reduce their emissions the problem of air travel will go over 3%. IIRC that industry is actually aiming to produce 15-25% of global emissions by 2050, and continue to campaign to keep their existing tax exemptions and want more.

    As I said, there is a hard requirement that net emissions hit zero before 2050 if we're going to avoid climate catastrophe. Which means we have to default to saying "no" to any special pleading. When even surgeons are moving away from air travel you have to be pretty fucking special to need to keep doing it. How special are you, icehawk?

    757:

    Here in San Diego there was a very large outbreak of Hepatitus A among the city’s homeless a while back. It took a while for the city to really deal with it as I recall. I know that this current illness is spread through fecal matter, and unfortunately there is a fair amount of the human sort in the alleys and sidewalks of this city, which reminds me that removing shoes at home is probably important as well! I also have some concern about the refugee camp 15 miles to the south in Tijuana; as if those poor people didn’t already have enough to deal with!

    758:

    Geoffrey Parker, in Global Crisis, a book that Frank has referred to before here, argues that social and political change in 17th century Europe was driven by climate changes, specifically the “Little Ice Age”, which led to repeated crop failures and revolution all over Europe. Parker looks to the many volcanic eruptions and a meteor strike in the early 1600s as a cause, but there are serious writers arguing that double-digit megadeath in the Americas as a result of post-contact disease spread due to colonialism was a factor in this cooling.

    The Black Death was another outcome of colonialism, and surely part of the scenario, but I don’t think we can still reasonably argue it is the only reason for the wave of change before and after Westphalia.

    759:

    Commercial aircraft have been getting consistently more fuel efficient over time

    Plus, first fully-electric planes exist. Since their range is currently limited to ~350km, it's expected that until we get Much Better (tm) batteries, hybrid is the way to go. This also gives you some flexibility regarding fuel, since you are just switching the generator and its tank, not the actual propulsion system.

    Incidentially, electric motors are less noisy and easier to maintain.

    760:

    Where are the rich, old people (afraid of the sky) going to hide and ride this thing out? They'll want to isolate themselves as much as possible to stay alive until the vaccine is ready. Which means going full Downton Abbey and living with your servants and care staff. Nobody comes in or out through the tradesmen's entrance let alone the front door.

    This suggests that we're looking at Cruise Ships back to front. They're not quarantine ships but isolation ships. You don't get to board no matter how much money you have without being proven to test negative. And stay negative in the weekly test. And if you leave the ship, you can't come back. And that's staff as well as customers.

    "We're going to have to widen the perimeter" (George Romero)

    761:

    Isn't this where the "buy your own island" thing comes from ?

    Not that I think that will work either: The most competent estimates I have seen say that this virus will most likely be with us until northern summer 2021, and unless your "place in the country" is a fully functioning non-mono-culture farm, you'll starve long before that.

    The intelligent reaction is to impede the contagion as much as possible, so that the intensive care units do not run out of staff and respirators.

    Bonus: This time we can evaluate how well that strategy works, because we have USA the Control Group.

    PS: I cant find much about Covid19 in Russia, that worries me.

    762:

    P J Evans @ 735 As a 74-year old, I find those number depressing to say the least. However ... How do those figures compare to the persons' general state of health & fitness? I get plenty of vitamin D, as going to the allotment 3 times a week does that, my lungs are working well ( See not only walking to/from & at allotment, but I'm still dancing, which pumps the air & blood round ) I was up ladders yesterday, doing the last tree-pruning for this spring, I trot into "town" at least once a week ( OK greater potential exposure )... NOW - compare that with most people my age or the several contemporaries or younger people than I who are no longer with us. Um, err ...

    icehawk Viruses are funny that way Something like 90%+ of people have been exposed to Memingitis & only about 0.01% + of them actually get it. IIRC, Polio is/was very similar. I wonder if the vile "November cough" that just about everybody in London got last year is any sort of immuno-protection against Corvid-19?

    P H-K @ 761 That's because all the numbers are being suppressed, assuming that they actually know what the numbers are Given Ru's diminishing & ageing & unwell population, they could be hit even harder than the USA

    763:

    I know that this current illness is spread through fecal matter

    According to Prof. Christian Drosten of the Berlin Charite that is rather unlikely, since while there are virus fragments in feces there isn't a sufficent number of infectious viruses to get an infection going.

    Of course he's only a world expert on coronaviruses and not working at a US institution, so can't know what he's about. :-P

    (Does it also take you aback that the mere thought that someone else but an US pharmaceutical might develop a COVID-19 vaccination is considered impossible?)

    764:

    The other possibility (esp. w.r.t. Equatorial Africa) is that it is simply not being taken note of, because they have much worse diseases to worry about. That is my personal view of why Lyme disease is supposedly absent from sub-Saharan Africa.

    765:

    Er, the Black Death was in the 14th century, not the 17th. You may be confusing it with the Great Plague, which was far less serious, and had far fewer consequences. But I am at a loss to understand why you think that even that was an outcome of colonialism.

    766:

    It's one of the reasons that I have regarded the sunscreen etc. campaign as positively harmful since the start of it. It is beneficial overall under some circumstances, but not others, and most especially NOT for dark-skinned people in the UK or anyone except a (near-) albino in a UK winter! That applies even if you are considering cancer risk alone (yes, there's a link between vitamin D deficiency and cancer, too).

    https://www.webmd.com/cancer/news/20111004/low-vitamin-d-levels-linked-to-advanced-cancers

    But, as far as COVID goes, yes. At least the epidemic will occur during our summer, when supplementation isn't needed, except for people wearing burqas and niqabs and those who rarely go out in daylight.

    767:

    I find I should add that my being sour about US attitudes wasn't specifically about something colortheorytoo wrote, but more a general complaint.

    768:

    The other possibility (esp. w.r.t. Equatorial Africa) is that it is simply not being taken note of, because they have much worse diseases to worry about.

    I've no clue about Africa, but, with the exception of dengue(*) Central America has no severe infectious disease problems that I know of, and the medical systems in at least Costa Rica, Panama and probably Nicaragua are quite respectable and on the alert for COVID-19.

    (*) Which actually is pretty scary and kills hundreds of people a year.

    https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2019/11/Dengue-Needs-in-Central-America-.pdf

    769:

    So we don't need school closures to protect the kids. If schools close it will be to protect us from the kids spreading the disease.

    As someone in their 50s (so elevated risk group) who works with kids I am feeling increasingly vulnerable. Cleaning has been pretty much at the 'remove visible garbage and mop spills' level since the last big round of cutbacks over a decade ago. Parents routinely send sick children to school because 'there's someone to watch them there'.

    During SARS we had cases where kids who had been sent home because they had been exposed (and so were possible contagion vectors) got bored so went to visit friends at other schools, hang out at the mall, etc. Having watched teenagers who were all worried about catching Covid one minute share a drinking bottle with a coughing friend the next I'm not certain how we would stop kids who have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic from spreading the infection.

    770:

    Basically, I see the flight shamers as people who are reducing CO2 emissions by guilt-tripping other people into doing their dirty work for them.

    They're cousins of the "let's ban plastic straws" people, who generally turn a blind eye to significant contributions to plastics pollution (e.g. nanoparticles shed by synthetic fibre clothing in washing machines) because they don't want to go back to wearing wool, cotton, and linen, but want to make a visible gesture (and fuck everyone who due to disability requires a drinking straw).

    Performative climate change propitiation rituals are not a solution. If they were serious about reducing aviation emissions, they'd be campaigning for the USA to upgrade or invest in new-build medium-speed passenger rail for city-center to city-center services -- medium speed meaning anything up to 150mph, i.e. high speed by US standards but regular old-school express service by European or Chinese -- and use it to replace all those regional jets and turboprops with 50-100 seats flying point-to-point 8 times a day.

    Those tracks need to be (a) fed by overhead electric power distribution (no diesel locomotives!), (b) grade-separated (no cattle wandering in front of 150mph passenger trains!), and (c) in-cab signaling (spotting external visual signals stops being practical above 80mph).

    Why not go for full high-speed rail? Well, energy use climbs as the square of the speed with trains, but is still pretty economical compared to aircraft until you get into modern high speed stuff.

    Note that this isn't going to eliminate domestic air travel -- just the short-haul nonsense.

    For journeys of 100-500 miles, a 150mph train still beats a plane for door-to-door travel time, including transport time to get to the airport airport, airport security time, and boarding/baggage claim time. Above 500 miles, the plane wins, and going to true high speed rail won't change that picture. But you can get rid of nonsense like flying being the fastest route between Portland and Seattle or New York and Boston. And if you put passenger railway stations under all the airport terminal buildings, with fast commuter rail into adjacent city centers, you can build an integrated rail/air transport network that mixes the best of both modes.

    771:

    Re: 'PS: I cant find much about Covid19 in Russia, that worries me.'

    So far even though there's not much Covid-19 activity in Russia, they appear to be taking it seriously. Seems that the 'economic impact' is what's most important about this virus.

    BTW - Russia's demographics have for many years shown a shortage of males over 65 so the death rate in Russia for this virus might show a different pattern vs. China and other countries. (Vlad is over 65.)

    Reuters:

    'Russia has not reported any confirmed cases of people contracting coronavirus on its territory, although six people who picked up the virus elsewhere have received or are receiving treatment.

    Authorities are now trying to prevent any spread of the virus by cancelling some international flights and recommending people against traveling abroad.

    On Thursday, Russia canceled its flagship annual St Petersburg International Economic Forum, usually chaired by President Vladimir Putin and scheduled for early June, as a precaution against the coronavirus.'

    772:

    Plus, first fully-electric planes exist.

    Electric plains are, and always will be, a niche.

    Regardless of battery efficiency, batteries are parasite weight: a plane can't shed drained batteries in flight. Whereas a fuel-burning plane weighs less as it burns off fuel, which in turn enables it to fly in cruise-climb and go further. We've already got commercial airliners able to achieve ranges of up to 20,000km, and routes of nearly 15,000 in regular service, and electric aircraft are looking at maybe eventually possibly scraping the 1000km finishing line. Nope.

    (Where electric planes will be useful is: air ambulances. We got really good suddenly at building multi-rotor fully stabilized drones. Scale it up, add a stretcher and accommodation for paramedics, and you have a decent first-responder solution for suburbia and city-adjacent exurban emergencies. Service to/from a hospital landing pad gives you the option of swapping out batteries for ground-side recharge in a properly managed maintenance site. And these things are mechanically somewhat simpler than a present-day turbine-powered helicopter -- the complexity is in the flight control software, not the gearboxes and drive train.)

    Aaaand ... we're wandering off-topic again because fuck any discussion thread that goes over 300 comments and you suckered me in.

    773:

    "But if you wanna propose an immediate closing of the airports and immediate ban to all air travel - which is exactly what Pigeon was proposing - then I'm going to tell you to stop being stupid."

    You live in New Zealand, you say.

    Which is an island nation in the middle of the ocean thousands of miles from anywhere. You'd think it would be perfectly situated to avoid infection completely.

    And yet it has not.

    How do you think the virus got there?

    PEOPLE FLEW IT IN ON FUCKING PLANES.

    I am proposing a measure which would have - and probably still could, since AIUI the current number of cases in NZ is still small enough to stand a chance of containing it - ensured that your own personal situation would involve nothing worse than moaning on Charlie's blog. Instead there is now a significant chance of you or your family ending up dead (but hey, your freedom to combust kerosene in half-ton lots has not been impugned). You are of course entirely free to prefer the latter, but I suggest you think a bit more carefully about which choice is the bloody stupid one.

    774:

    ...Oh, and:

    "You're proposing screwing with many people's lives."

    That one could do with a bit more thought too.

    775:

    Re: New Zealand

    How do you think the virus got there?

    PEOPLE FLEW IT IN ON FUCKING PLANES.

    Thank goodness no cruise liners ever stop by Auckland or other places in New Zealand otherwise you could have a serious problem stopping COVID-19 propagation after you shut down all airline flights.

    776:

    There was a discussion a few threads back about how one gets to NZ other than by air which pretty much concluded that you had to provide your own boat. If that is not in fact true then it goes without saying that cruise incubators are included in the prohibition.

    777:

    OTOH, I,'m surprised the airlines (etc) are feeling the pinch already ... let's face it this is not yet an actual pandemic

    Their traffic drop off was fast and swift starting a few weeks ago. At first pleasure travelers who tend to think not traveling makes them safer. Then businesses started cutting back. Both on internal travel plans then external as conferences started being cancelled.

    It is almost all fear based. And except for overwhelming the medical systems I don't think it will work. I think we (if you're interacting with almost anyone in the 1st and 2nd world defined as you wish) are all going to be exposed in the next month or so.

    778:

    'Tra I modi di dire felsinei, il nostro preferito era sempre stato "As vadd di can cagher de viulen"'

    Turing Test and Tinky Winky 2 Test. A Wired article from 2013 claimed the fraction of the famous English-speaking people in the world was from 1 in 10000 to 5 in 10000? Theatre manager John T Ford is claimed to have died of influenza, though he had a heart attack. The doctors have adopted the methods of the psychiatric community, what was once flu, a jumble of related native and foreign strains, is separated with new technology into fantastic dragon flu, with no fans to lament the resultant diminished quality of native flu.

    Tinky Winky 2 surveillance, the belated outcome of Orgreave. The miners are no longer able to provide a role demanded by the state. The police both have to enforce the strikes and provide the theatre, though the English chief constables often act out, they haven't the wit to send subordinates to Gaddafi.

    Luther Blissett or John Barnes? Blissett played for AC Milan for one season in 1983 and was sold back to Watford for £500,000. AC Milan were said to have denied they had confused Blissett with Barnes, it was said they wanted a goalscorer. Barnes never played abroad, Liverpool fans called him 'Digger,' presumably after the ghost which haunted the Ewing family in the form of Cliff Barnes. Isn't it the clandestine meetings of the historical associations which are threatened, not the cultist proponents of Singularity? How could the devotees of the sword be threatened by anything?

    And what of the search for patient zero, the little girl with the old-fashioned beliefs trying to sell poor quality chicken in the markets by running through the wheat? The attempt to disrupt the intellectual life of China by swamping the masses with low grade opium is the history of merchant banks, not of farmers. At last she washed her hands of 52-48, the referendum result which could not be. Her leopard print shoes can't be helped.

    It is not true that he could not act at all, there was a moment of acting in full makeup, before the mask, he still had his eyes. More than the unfortunate Tinky Winky 2 got, though he has the opportunity for an immortality Disney cannot buy.

    I still know what you will do this summer

    779:

    Re: 'Tra I modi di dire felsinei,

    No idea what this is supposed to mean.

    780:

    Right there with you, S.P. Zeidler, I feel pretty sour too!

    I read somewhere (can’t remember where) that it was transmissible via fecal matter so if it isn’t that’s great news.

    And of course, how could a foreign vaccine be as good as a ‘merican one? /sarcasm

    781:

    EC ...and those who rarely go out in daylight. So, do Vampires get vit-D deficiency & are they vulnerable to Corvid-19? Or are their self-healing powers superior to those drawbacks?

    Charlie Also cousins to the fuckwits who won't wear wool because it comes from ANIMALS ... ditto wearing shoes made from petroleum products. with no leather in them ... Re. decent rail speeds & transit times ... about the only people flying under 400-mile transits ( e.g. London-Edinburgh for non-European readers ) are those who are transferring to another plane, directly, at the next airport. Even for London - Paris - because there is a true high-Speed service, the airlines' share is down to "not a lot"

    Supposedly "pasquinade" @ 778 Uh? You what? Could we have that in English, please? Or are you the many-named Seagull in disguise?

    782:

    Unfortunately, too much zinc is damaging to the immune system, so I feel nervous about recommending it, even though it is needed.

    783:

    Nojay @ 706: The cruise liner biz is the one that's forefronting the bad press reports about COVID-19, lots of pictures the cruise companies won't want on the brochures selling next year's cruising season. That association is what will hit them really hard. I'm trying hard to think what the giant cruise liners left without customers could be repurposed for -- hospital ships perhaps?

    Once the epidemic dies down then generally it will be Business As Usual for most of the hospitality world. Charlie and I are front and centre for the Edinburgh BloodyFestivalBloodyBloody every August. If COVID-19 is still a serious problem by then this year then I'm going to be interested in seeing what an Edinburgh summer is like without the usual hordes of Epileptic Estonian Elvis Impersonators roaming the cobbled streets of the Old Town. Saying that hordes of Mad Max re-enactors is probably a more worrying prospect.

    The cruise industry is getting the major headlines, but they're not the only industry who are going to take it in the neck. They're just the one where the downturn in business currently most visible.

    And after the epidemic dies down, it will be "Business as Usual" for those hospitality industry companies that have managed to stay in business, but a significant segment of that industry ain't gonna' make it through to the other side.

    784:

    But don't go wild on Vitamin D. It can crystallize in the joints as a pseudo-gout. That said, deficiency is said to be common in northern climes...and by that they meant even San Francisco, CA, so they definitely meant most of Europe. (But what supplements are already included in your diet? In the US milk products generally have Vitamin D added...though I'm not sure about skim milk as it's a fat soluble vitamin.)

    785:

    'The latest patient diagnosed with COVID-19 recently travelled to Las Vegas and used public transit in Toronto for several days before he was tested for the virus, according to the Toronto public health authority.'

    Here in North Carolina (pop over 10mil) we have 2 DETECTED cases. But I suspect there are a lot more. Our first one is very local to me. Someone who visited the ground zero nursing home in the Seattle area flew back to Raleigh a week ago Saturday. Then ate a meal at a very popular restaurant Sunday night. Then at some point early in the week was discovered to be infected.

    So now we have someone who was spreading infection going through at least 2 mid major airports (ours has daily flights to London and Paris and a lot of connections to the entire USA and the rest of the world) was in an airplane for at least 5 hours, and moved around the city for 2 days. You know there's a non trivial number of those people who are likely infected and they are spreading it for the net week or two before they become symptomatic.

    We're all going to be exposed and soon. Given the 1 to 2 week hidden symptom but infectious situation I can see the next maned launch to the ISS taking place AFTER the crew has been in isolation for a month or more.

    As to me, I got a really nasty viral infection a week ago. Kicked my butt for 2 days then I was hacking for another 3 and still am a bit. Now that tests are around I plan to call my PCP and ask if I should be tested. Oy vey.

    I did get tested for strep and flu when it started but there were no COVID-19 tests available then. Oh yeah, I'm 65. I suspect though that most of the issues with age are general health.

    786:

    School closures were effective, but only if (a) it was done early before the virus was widespread, and (b) it was done for a long time-period.

    Of course there is tremendous pressure to NOT close schools before absolutely required due to how it wreaks the life of the parents. Especially if both are working. Ditto opening them back up.

    787:

    Re: ' ... won't wear wool because it comes from ANIMALS'

    Hadn't heard that one before. Most countries have how-to guidelines for caring for farm animals (including best practices re: shearing). Many also require veterinarians to report injuries and diseases esp. any farm animals.

    788:

    [quote]While you're proposing to kill most people.

    One of those things is kind of annoying, the other is the act of a genocidal maniac.[/quote]

    I'm rather sure you're over-reacting. Considering the population that COVID-19 targets it's not genocidal, and I think the death/serious rate is vastly overstated (because I think the rate of infection is vastly understated).

    But I also don't think that a 14 day quarantine is sufficient. If the people could be held in isolation from potential contamination AND if they could be tested, say, 1 week into the quarantine it might work. Otherwise...well, there's been a reported case that took 6 weeks to develop. And there are people who remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the disease. Also, if it invades, say, the CNS, it will be likely to emerge later rather like chickenpox. (One may hope it will take as long to emerge, but that's not given.)

    Also, there is already community transmission on, I believe, all continents except Antarctica.

    In summary, you WILL be exposed to COVID-19. One may hope that it will be after you have been vaccinated, but reasonable estimates put that 2 years out. Perhaps one of the anti-virals will work in the meantime...but we don't know whether or not that will work.

    So the purpose of quarantine is to slow the spread. Understood that way, it's a reasonable approach, but not supporting that is hardly genocidal, and it's certainly no panacea.

    789:

    Polio is/was very similar.

    When Polio started making a comeback I did some reading on it. Polio is complicated. The virus is spread fecally. But the feeling of what I read at the time was that modern sewage systems combined with vacinnations made it worse. Sort of. Maybe. When all infants were being breast fed and the bacteria was in the environment moms gave immunity through breast milk while the kids built up immunity on their own. Some people got it but not everyone. Sucks to be you sort of if your body didn't work it out. But for most folks things worked out. Then they cleaned up the sewage in much of the "1st" world but no vaccines. So kids didn't build up immunity on their own. So we got the climbing rates in the 40s and 50 (in the US). Then the vaccine came along and breast feeding dropped and the equations got really complicated. In different ways in different areas of the world. Polio rates went WAY down but it was easy for it to re-emerge as no one was building up their own immunity.

    I'm not an immunologist and writing this from 20+ year old memory so feel free to correct.

    790:

    How do you think the virus got there?

    In 1918-1920 the Spanish flu got there the same way it got everywhere else -- on boats.

    Planes merely speed up the spread of green-field epidemics, they don't cause it -- and banning them won't stop it happening.

    791:

    Re. decent rail speeds & transit times ... about the only people flying under 400-mile transits

    You're London-based so I'll forgive you for having a London-centric viewpoint, but just you try working out how to get from Manchester to Cambridge by train, or Edinburgh to Bristol, without traveling all the way into central London and changing. The British railway network is designed to funnel everything through London, and it's a total pain in the neck. Hence the marginal niche occupied by the likes of FlyBe and LoganAir, flying point-to-point between cities over 200 miles apart where the shortest railway connection involves going at least 100 miles further out of your way and then changing trains.

    (Yes, Edinburgh/Bristol has a more-or-less direct route via CrossCountry Trains, but CrossCountry is a shitty experience to sit on for six hours, never mind the 11 hour extended edition you get if you go from Inverness to Penzance. The Voyagers stop everywhere and operate as a local service, to all intents and purposes.)

    792:

    Italy is locking up Milan in the hope of containing this outbreak.

    You're behind. They've expanded it to the entire area. Italians are trying to flee south just to get out of the quarantine zone.

    793:

    The bits you missed out from that story:

    Sewer systems got rid of cholera in cities. And cholera killed people in windrows. (Polio: not so much, it was very much a second-tier grim reaper.)

    The other big killer that went downhill back then was tuberculosis ... and the fall in TB cases (which predated the BCG vaccine by decades) correlated with the decline in urban horse-drawn transport -- horses were a major infectious reservoir -- and with cattle being driven into cities and slaughtered locally (another reservoir).

    Sewers were a more-or-less unmitigated good, as was the internal combustion engine, in terms of epidemiology. Until the idiots started adding tetraethyl lead to the petrol (subclinical chronic lead poisoning: violent crime epidemic).

    794:

    The quarantine zone is 25% of the entire nation.

    (I have a friend who's directly affected: he lives in France, his elderly parents are in the lockdown zone ...)

    795:

    The idea that COVID-19 will die away in summer is based on analogy, and that may be a strongly flawed analogy. It's not a flu, even though some of it's symptoms are similar.

    OTOH, be sure your flu shots are current. Getting both at once would be really bad news.

    796:

    Charlie Agreed re tranist in the UK, for some isnatnces at any rate. "Cross-Country" is a disgrace in many ways - speedsare low & the "voyager" units are pure shit & need replacing - yesterday

    As fro locking up Milan / Lombardy Too late, forget it. I just wonder how long before the Italian authorities realise this & just deal with active cases .... Beacuse I think Charles H is correct ... there's a lot more of it about than is suggested & vast numbers ( like possibly 50%+ of the population) are effectively already immune to it, but can act as silent carriers.

    797:

    Sewers were a more-or-less unmitigated good

    I agree. See my kind of, Sort of, Maybe, comment.

    As I said, it was complicated. The equation was not x+y=z as people want it to be. The real equation has 50 terms and is very non linear (in a simplified form).

    Being one generation removed from growing up on a farm I have no romantic or even unrealistic thoughts about the incredible piles of crap that cattle, horses, and pigs generate. And the health effects of such.

    And then there is the way that the first generation or two of modern sewer systems worked by getting crap out of the street and into the river so the downriver people could figure out how deal.

    And if you look up the figures for horse crap on the city streets of New York in the 1900 time frame it boggles the mind. I'm sure London and Paris were similar.

    798:

    Greg Tingey @ 711: Charles H
    "Asytptomatic Carriers" ( "Typhoid Mary" ) - yes, that's a/the real problem, isn't it?

    Except that's not what's happening here. Mary Mallon worked as a cook. "Typhoid Mary" knew she was spreading disease. Plus, they didn't have the antibiotics to treat Typhoid back then.

    In this case an "asymptomatic carrier" is someone who has been exposed and is incubating the disease, but has not yet begun to manifest symptoms and probably doesn't yet know they are sick. A more accurately descriptive term would be "PRE-symptomatic carrier"

    799:

    To get back to COVID-19

    As a software developer I'm seeing a lot of my (smarter than me) friends and colleagues talking a lot about how the CFR (Case Fatality Ratio) is likely to be much lower than 1%, or the 3.4% quoted by the WHO, because there are likely to be a lot of infections that are mild or asymptomatic, don't result in tests, and thus don't contribute to the number of "cases". For those cases to recover taken 3-8 weeks.

    They may well be right, but this doesn't address my major concern, which is this - the WHO report from China says that 15% of cases require concentrated oxygen therapy, and 5% of cases are unable to breathe spontaneously, and require artificial ventilation. Italian doctors are warning that 10% of cases require intensive care.

    So at least 20% of infected patients require some sort of serious medical care. If the number of beds, and the number of staff to care for patients is insufficient, a significant proportion of those people are likely to die.

    So....

    Assume the WHO is right and of the 'confirmed cases', 15% need oxygen, 5% need ventilation (not as bad as the Italians suggest).

    "Reasonable worst case" infection rate, as quoted by the Chief Medical Officer, is 80%.

    Let's be optimistic and say that it only gets to 50%

    Let's also be optimistic and say that we have 4x the number of real cases vs those tested positive, so for 100 'confirmed cases', we actually have 400 infected. Only 25% are 'confirmed cases'.

    That means we 50% * 25% of the population 'confirmed cases', which is 12.5%.

    The serious cases are 20% of that, so 2.5% of the population will get serious symptoms over the course of the outbreak.

    The UK population is 66.4 million.

    2.5% of that is 1.66 million.

    So optimistically over the course of the outbreak, 1,245 million people will require oxygen, and 415,000 will require artificial ventilation.

    Number of hospital beds in the UK: 168 thousand. Number of critical case beds: 5912.

    My conclusion?

    a) Find someone with the virus and snog them. Get sick now, while the resources are available. b) Try and avoid getting the infection until a vaccine is available or the number of serious cases has fallen enough that you can get the care you need.

    800:

    Bill Arnold @ 720: Rhetorical question: Why is my immediate reaction mobile quarantine centers, to be converted to mobile prisons reeducation centers after The Emergency?

    "FEMA Concentration Camp" is a meme.

    801:

    icehawk @ 736:

    While you're proposing to kill most people

    Oh, FFS Moz. You're smarter than that.

    Link?

    802:

    If they have anybody speaking the truth, then they likely know now.

    But, again assuming competence, the goal is merely to slow it down enough that you don't overwhelm the health system with the added political benefit of being seen to do something.

    803:

    As vadd di can caghèr di viulén with the inflections, without the error.

    It is translated though? A short approximate literal translation might be that football crowds have their own methods of dealing with fantastic dragons, unless they use Ouija boards and always begin with L.

    804:

    OK. A what if.

    There's vaccine and it's available next week in the millions of doses. Or even billions. And it works at a 99.99% level with no know side effects.

    I know the food fight that would erupt in the US if the government at various levels tried to say "If you're not immune compromised or have a respiratory issue at this point in time you must get vaccinated."

    How would this go over in the UK, Europe, OZ, NZ, where ever...?

    805:

    "the "voyager" units are pure shit & need replacing - yesterday"

    Peaks on load 12. My Lords!

    806:

    In 1918-1920 there were boats.

    807:

    OK I got a few details wrong. It doesn't change the story but here's a quote from our local paper.

    So far, few details have been released. Here’s what we do and do not know. We do know that the man traveled through RDU on Feb. 22, and he was not symptomatic at that time. We do not know the name of the airline he traveled on or the flight number, but we do know that people on his flight who were considered to be in close contact with him have already been notified. If you have not been notified, you were not in close contact. We do not know exactly when he visited the Washington nursing home or if he was aware of problems at the nursing home at the time of his visit. We know that he is recovering at home and that members of his household have been quarantined with him. We do not know where he lives or works or where he has shopped, except that he dined at so.ca restaurant in Raleigh’s Cameron Village on Saturday, Feb. 29. At the time he dined there, he had not yet tested positive, but health officials say he was experiencing symptoms for approximately a week before he tested positive. Health officials said that “a number of people within Wake and elsewhere in North Carolina” have been asked to voluntarily “self-quarantine” because they had been within 6 feet of this man for at least 10 minutes after he began to show symptoms of illness.

    808:

    "FEMA Concentration Camp" is a meme. That's what made it a rhetorical question. I'm pretty irritated about even thinking these thoughts as reasonably high probabilities; means that my/our priors are contaminated by propaganda.

    I'm looking at the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_data/WHO_situation_reports (linked at 597) and see some countries/reporting entities that are reporting near constant case numbers. e.g. Hong Kong. And others are more greenfield-epidemic obviously exponential spread. This may mean that personal practices like masks and distancing really are rather important. (Iran being an opposite, reportedly with a cultural practice of cheek kissing.)

    809:

    It means something like "one of our favourite expressions has always been Yeah, when dogs shit violins, as they say in Bologna". (ie. as a sarcastic response to someone proposing something which is incredibly unlikely to happen.) I may be a bit off but I'm reasonably sure that catches it.

    810:

    Suspect your asking the wrong question, as while the US is the obvious poster child at this point most democratic countries have large enough segments of their populations that are vaccine idiots.

    But better question would be if a sufficient percentage of the population would get vaccinated thus slowing down Covid-19 enough that the health system could handle it.

    811:

    JBS OK, not "Typhoid Mary" ... but an unsymptomatic carrier - who will not actually suffer from the disease at all ... like I sadi about Meningitis, yes? See alos .. Chris King @ 799 ... Very mild cases, wher "Corvid" is not suspected etc et bloody cetera

    Pigeon @ 805 👀 🌞 Unfortunately, no emoji for either the thrash noises, nor the vast clodus of diesel clag!

    812:

    "Cross-Country" is a disgrace in many ways - speedsare low & the "voyager" units are pure shit & need replacing - yesterday

    I rode the Voyagers pretty much every week for 18 months between Edinburgh and Leeds. The only thing worse were the old InterCity 125 sets they pressed into service when they needed extra capacity on the route. Happy fun days, hitting the vicinity of Newcastle around 8-9pm on a Saturday night -- all the locals were steaming drunk and either going into the big smoke for the night life, or catching the CrossCountry home (because they couldn't be arsed using a local train).

    813:

    The problem with the “fatality rate must be lower” argument is it works the other way too. There are also people, especially older ones, who have died of COVID-19 and not been diagnosed

    One of the reasons why the Washington State death numbers jumped so quickly was this, several people had died in the infected nursing home prior to the diagnosis and originally these deaths were considered normal

    814:

    And then there is the way that the first generation or two of modern sewer systems worked by getting crap out of the street and into the river so the downriver people could figure out how deal.

    The Patient Zero for modern sewer systems, Bazalgette's London sewerage system, (built between 1859 and 1870), did indeed dump effluent into the river Thames downstream of London (treatment works IIRC came later), but into the tidal estuary, where sewage would end up swept out to sea.

    It's always astonishing to me how long it took for the germ theory of disease to receive widespread acceptance (microbiota were first observed using microscopy in the 18th century) and then for municipal sewer systems to be built.

    815:

    On another note, I gather while some airlines are mothballing airliners due to lack of demand

    Ouch. Lufthansa just said they are parking ALL 14 of their A380 through the end of May. (Or longer.) They are already seeing load factors at 35% on those planes.

    The A380 has got to be the poster child for bad timing.

    816:

    I know the food fight that would erupt in the US if the government at various levels tried to say "If you're not immune compromised or have a respiratory issue at this point in time you must get vaccinated." How would this go over in the UK, Europe, OZ, NZ, where ever...?

    There are three proximate causes for resistance: (a) who pays for the vaccination treatment, (b) anti-vaxxer nonsense, and (c) civil rights.

    (a) Is easy in the UK -- there's the NHS (English and Scottish are separate institutions but run broadly on parallel lines) which pays for it. Cost to patients: zero, it's free.

    (b) Is the hard one. Andrew Wakefield was a Brit, remember: the UK is actually patient zero for the anti-vaxxer movement, dammit.

    (c) The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) which is the basis for civil rights in law in the UK (for now -- some of the Tories want to abolish it) and in the EU generally provides public health and safety loopholes, i.e. your civil rights are contingent on them not fucking up public safety. So the ECHR probably permits mass compulsory vaccination programs, despite the howls of the anti-vaxxers (although the political fallout -- and likely court challenges -- would be messy).

    Also, if a vaccine became available, I'm thinking that anti-vaxxers would become unaccountably unpopular all of a sudden, in the face of a pandemic emergency with TV showing people dying and on ventilators all over the place; it'd still take a mass public information campaign to get the idea of herd immunity across, but don't underestimate the utility of an elective dictatorship in an actual, y'know, emergency that can be tackled by top-down authoritarian you-will-get-the-jab-or-you-will-go-in-an-internment-camp-until-you-get-sick policies.

    Reading between the lines, HM Government is collectively shitting itself (despite Boris Johnson's dismissive whiffling in the press). Remember, the Tory party is All About The Money, yes? So, today the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that as far as he was concerned, tackling COVID-19 demanded an open cheque book. This is not business as usual!

    817:

    NCAA Basketball

    Outside of the US this may not be well know but the tournaments start this week. Without getting into details 10K-30K per stadium per day of people packed into indoor stadiums across the country. Next week for 4 or 5 days in a row in a dozen or so locations. After that is the big 48 game weekend spread across the county in 16 stadiums. It is single elimination so the next week has 4 venues then the next week the 4 remaining teams play. But the numbers go up. Typically 50K or more fans in seats. This is for the men.

    At the same time we have the women's teams playing. Similar location count but fan base is typically 1/4 or so of the men.

    And just now across the US the same sport has teen (high school) championships going on. In some states you might have a few 1000 at a game. In other states the numbers are similar to college men.

    This is going to spread fast.

    818:

    From a link on cstross twitter (thanks!), SARS-CoV-2 Cell Entry Depends on ACE2 and TMPRSS2 and Is Blocked by a Clinically Proven Protease Inhibitor (Open Access) (pdf) In this context, it is noteworthy that the serine protease inhibitor camostat mesylate[1], which blocks TMPRSS2 activity (Kawase et al., 2012, Zhou et al., 2015), has been approved in Japan for human use, but for an unrelated indication. This compound or related ones with potentially increased antiviral activity (Yamamoto et al., 2016) could thus be considered for off-label treatment of SARS-CoV-2-infected patients.

    [1] alt spelling might be "camostat mesilate"

    819:

    In the UK I'd expect we'd get a few screaming nutters but the majority would consider them such. The primary factor in non-compliance would not be people actively refusing but people who simply couldn't be arsed.

    I remember various rounds of compulsory vaccinations at different schools and the compliance was somewhere in the high nineties. There were one or two people out of the entire year who would not have it done because of some medical peculiarity, but there weren't any looney parents going "you're not sticking my kid".

    820:

    Elderly Cynic @ 766: It's one of the reasons that I have regarded the sunscreen etc. campaign as positively harmful since the start of it. It is beneficial overall under some circumstances, but not others, and most especially NOT for dark-skinned people in the UK or anyone except a (near-) albino in a UK winter! That applies even if you are considering cancer risk alone ...

    The idea that dark-skinned people don't need sunscreen is a MYTH. I've seen what happens when a black guy who works indoors most of the time in North Carolina goes down to Texas & works out in the sun all day with no protection. It ain't pretty. Even though he was darker than Sidney Poitier, you could see the underlying redness of his sunburn. It was that bad. After he got out of sick bay & was allowed to go outdoors again he used sunscreen religiously.

    I'm right on the cusp between Type I and Type II on the Fitzpatrick scale, and after my cancer treatment, my doctors told me to never, ever go out in the sun without covering up & wearing sunscreen even here in North Carolina (35.80° N), because I'm at elevated risk for skin cancers. I'm not even supposed to rest my elbow on the window sill when I'm driving unless I have on a special long sleeve shirt (UPF 50+). I have a cap with an extended bill & a doo-hickey on the back like the old French Foreign Legion Kepi (at least like the Kepi in the move Beau Geste).

    Because of that, I never make enough Vitimin D (I don't think I make ANY vitimin D) & have to take at least 2,000 IU as a daily supplement.

    821:

    Interesting post from a reporter covering Covid-19, and what reporters covering it should be asking (and thus also what we readers should be looking for in terms of data in stories).

    https://www.propublica.org/article/i-lived-through-sars-and-reported-on-ebola-these-are-the-questions-we-should-be-asking-about-coronavirus?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    822:

    All I know about the vaccine is that as soon as it becomes available, I'm gonna' get it.

    823:

    If you're over forty, you synthesize nearly no Vitamin D anyway, irrespective of sun exposure or skin shade.

    Remember that D is one of the ones with a recommended dose measured in micrograms; you don't need much but you also need to absorb it which gets into this "biology is complex" thing. Gut flora want it more than you do might be the simple summary.

    Greasy fish -- cod liver oil! -- is a good bet; so is straight up supplementation these days. If you're not getting enough D your ability to metabolize C starts to get questionable, too.

    824:

    Also, if a vaccine became available, I'm thinking that anti-vaxxers would become unaccountably unpopular all of a sudden

    During a pandemic someone in power might have the mother-wit to treat the anti-vax movement as bioterrorism. (It's very difficult to see how it isn't, in material results terms, and sincerity of beliefs are no excuse.) We've got more than enough laws and powers on the books to handle it on that basis.

    825:

    And if you look up the figures for horse crap on the city streets of New York in the 1900 time frame it boggles the mind. I'm sure London and Paris were similar.

    My grandfather was a Londoner. When I was a young environmentalist raging against automobile pollution he told me what London streets were like before the automobile. To a child who only knew horses from books and Western movies the sheer problem of how to deal with horse pollution was a revelation.

    826:

    Charlie BUT Wakefield is very much Persona non grata in his ex-home country, I'm glad to say. And, the combination of "keeping business going" + money for heqlth measures to supply business + a long tradition of guvmint actually stepping up to the "Plate" in real emergencies ... will see us a lot better off then many. France, Netherlands, Germany the Nordics will be similar. The USA ... not so much. I REALLY HOPE that some anti-vaxxers get jailed for this & - much more effectively RIDICULED - see also PIgeon's remark about "screaming nutters"

    827:

    Your conclusions are wrong.

    Firstly they are only valid for those over 50. (arguably higher) Secondly its vanishingly unlikely that everyone in the population will get it - hence your growth rates are wrong. Even leaving aside people how have been vaccinated not everyone gets the flu every year.

    Lasting assuming that anyone who gets it is then at least partially resistant to it for a while (there is some anecdotal evidence that this may not be the case) - then we actually want anyone who has a decent chance of surviving it to get it, not because they'll need medical attention but because they will then be natural "firebreaks" for the rest of who haven't had it. Regardless of the hygeine rules - the best place for the virus to live is inside a human - and even then only for 2-3 weeks before the body gets its act together and swats it.

    828:

    FFS Moz. You're smarter than that. ... Link?

    One possibility would be to read what I actually wrote rather than assuming icehawk did that, then ask yourself whether it makes any sense.

    829:

    The niche for short-range electric planes will be the USA, because building a proper rail system would require us considering the “common good.”

    830:

    Read what I say, not what you read into it, and take a look at the insolation data for the UK. You Yankees from the Deep South have no idea what it's like in northern latitudes - vitamin D deficiency is a FAR more serious problem with us than sunburn. I am mostly Celtic (admittedly, a dark Celt), and don't need sunscreen in the UK for any skin that is normally exposed.

    831:

    Performative climate change propitiation rituals are not a solution.

    Really? If flight shaming doesn't work why are people like you so upset by it? My theory is that you know you're doing the wrong thing and you want people to stop pointing it out. Your solution is... that you will voluntarily fly less when someone discovers the magic 'ask nicely' words? Presumably those same words will stop a majority voting to continue the bread and circuses until Rome is burning burnt to the ground?

    If they were serious about reducing aviation emissions, they'd be campaigning for the USA to upgrade or invest in new-build medium-speed passenger rail ...

    So you are not serious about reducing emissions? Or are you campaigning secretly?

    My understanding is that quiet, sensible campaigns against global heating have failed quite dramatically, so we're down to "do everything, right now", and peer pressure to stop flying is a thing we can do. If nothing else pressure like this seems to be part of what's required to convince politicians that mitigation measures have public support.

    It looks to me as though you, icehawk, et al, are campaigning against even the smallest immediate inconvenience even though that means campaigning for global heating. So discounting the future to almost zero, almost immediately.

    832:

    25-hydroxy vitamin D3 production in the skin does not cease at the age of forty. It drops to 50% in the over seventies. Since conversion to the active 1-25 dihydroxy vitamin D3 in the kidneys is also reduced in old people it's even more necessary for old people to have sunlight on the skin. And supplementation with vitamin D3 rather than the previously used D2 is often considered better. Old people kept indoors have much lower levels of vitamin D. It's difficult to measure the active 1-25 dihydroxy form (the only time I did this assay it took a week) so most measurements are of the 25-OH flavour. But sun exposure increases 25-OH vitamin D

    834:

    Re: 'camostat mesylate'

    I googled the above term and lo & behold! the manufacturer/supplier's site is advertising this compound for Covid-19. Pretty fast reaction time.

    A serious request: Would you (or other blog readers) please confirm my understanding of this?

    The key or one of the key receptors for this virus is in cells found in the mouth. (Correct or incorrect?)

    This compound while a protease inhibitor is not similar to the ACE inhibitor a lot of people with heart conditions take. (Correct or incorrect?)

    However, this ACE inhibitor does use/interact with potassium. Should I be careful with diet, i.e., no more bananas? (Yes or No?)

    835:

    And yet it moves:

    https://twitter.com/darshanvmehta1/status/1236649666294382592

    We're being very silly[0], precisely because a lot of important people[1] are fucking losing their Minds[2] over basic stuff that should be easy. Not only that, you're not clued up enough to spot us steering fucking has-beens[3] away from actual Dragons and nor are you aware of other tings[5].

    And we're willing to spot you a conspiracy theory you've never heard before.

    Hint: It's not for Humans, it's not made by Humans and it's not known by Humans[4] and the penalties for sharing it are a little worse than 'spank and tank' the global economy.

    But, like: whatever.

    RU / Saud is going to torch CAN / US shale and even IL has had to ban everyone[6] from everywhere due to hubris from Americans / UK / IL "political wannabees" and you're shitting around trying to run parser games.

    la cigue

    Hemlock.

    You want to run a Sicilian joke?

    Do it with style:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3yon2GyoiM

    Note: it's offensive, it's from Tarantino. No, it's really offensive.

    But it's smarter than Pas is being atm.

    ~

    Flies off to put out the nettle bed they made for themselves.

    Wake me up when it hasn't burnt a trillion dollar hole in your system in the morning[7].

    [0]IceHawk with the 1980's knowledge there of lyrics, top marks. [1] Look - if you're not clued in enough to know which people are circulating the "Saudi King is dead" stuff and their prior ties to circulating HD 4K death-pr0n from "ISIS" then, well: get out of the game. Hint: this is a baaaaad look given AIPAC / CPAC but hey - free world, right? S IT E are well known to be tied into that whole Bellpott- $500 mil+ PR deal etc. The fact they're putting out Fake News like Regicide is danger danger territory. That's WarGames level taunting and it's fucking STUPID at the moment. [2] Not actually, the Real Deal[tm] comes when Gozer the Gozerian appears which is fairly close now. If you want to check your 666 market index, it was on 6th March 2020 (yawn). Oh, and we're not impressed. [3] Entire of the US political class as well as special interest groups right now [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IS0JEwi3gM [5] Like, we know y'all 60+ white geezers so we don't freak you out much. [6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74BzSTQCl_c [7] No, really.

    836:

    Medical advice I got from my then-family-doctor (since retired) in the late oughts when Ontario (well, OHIP's) statistical folks had figured out that to a statistical first approximation the ENTIRE province of Ontario was vitamin D deficient and that this was a problem. (Because it increased the costs of providing medical care.)

    And, yes, it doesn't totally stop but apparently for health purposes the possibility of "enough" is pretty darn doubtful in northern latitudes and goes away completely by forty, so for patient-purposes it's stopped. (I suspect a certain amount of "and don't go to Arizona and fry your epidermis" in the choice of phrasing.)

    837:

    Vitamin D deficiency is associated with just about every nasty chronic disease/syndome you can name. Causation or correlation? Doesn't matter. I take 5000 units a day in olive oil gelcaps. One thing I noticed years ago is that it eliminated my arthritic symptoms (swelling painful joints). I stopped taking it and a couple of months later symptoms returned. So continue to take it. Might be coincidence or some kind of delayed plaecbo effect, by D3 supplements are dirt cheap. I will let others argue over the science.

    838:

    Oh, and:"We're keeping our powder dry"[-1]

    Really isn't going to cut it when what [redacted] have learnt from your puerile algo jokes[0] is that 'RESPECT' means, well: total war. No, really: that's what you've offered and that's what you'll get.

    And yes, this is all tied to COVID19. If you cannot believe there are outfits like [1] from #835 pulling this shit on the cusp of this, well. We have bad news for you.

    If you want to really look into the psychology of this, we'd suggest looking into those partying[1] that Iran had had so many COVID19 deaths. Live, on camera, while spreading it to their social strata. While moaning about certain US representatives being Voldemorte[2]

    Irony is universal.

    Mewling about it afterwards is just feeding the psychosis. ~ And if you think that Submission isn't worth some people burning the world down, whelp.

    Oujia board you say? Look up "jamie jpmorgan dreamed everyone at davos was dead" for a taste.

    ~

    Oh, and people cutting up squid / octopuses and doing "neural research" while only scanning their brains are fucking dumb.

    https://www.sciencealert.com/squid-brains-are-nearly-as-complex-as-dog-brains

    That's not how their brains or nervous systems work.

    Hard Ball you say? You think we're joking about the Mind Wipe stuff.

    That's a big fucking Category Error right there, Pas.

    ~

    Answer tomorrow and spot if it's all priced in yet.

    [-1] Most major UK / EU bank statement of intent atm. [0] Look: the people running the systems like LIBOR etc are mostly male, mostly Eyes-Closed and mostly love in-jokes. The 666 Satanic thing is long standing tradition for them, it's a point of pride to be able to do it across as many indexes as possible. [1] Purim done early is a mark of crassness and badly raised children and a big no-no, but hey - not my believers, so knock yourselves out, eh? [2] Seriously: if you're taking your talking points from Goblins-with-Gold lady, you're a fucking liability unless you're selling the "Bloods and the Unwashed" as was done in Brazil. None of which makes you a friend to humanity.

    839:

    What happened to laser zapping your brain? Was big on HackerNews a while back until everyone spotted the thermal clime.

    Genuinely curious.

    Should have gone with DMT.

    840:

    None of it was as easy, useful or convenient as modafinil and the racetam family. Have not worked up the courage to try Dihexa yet. Meanwhile, I intend to try some senolytics.

    841:

    Yes, [4] sums up the entire fucking world at the moment, especially if you know how much real trauma the actors went through.

    IWD = She'll ....

    In a decent world 6/7 C levels would be marched out and put onto a small island like Elba at this point, and the entire ad team sectioned[1]

    "Magpie"

    Dudes: we can front-run your reality with real world effects.

    Remember Me You'll be Home soon I am never coming back

    Hemlock and Nettles.

    COVID19 is proving to [redacted] that you can't be trusted with certain things. You're failing and you don't even know why.

    [1] Want to play 666 games?

    https://www.adsoftheworld.com/media/film/shell_she_will

    https://reelchicago.com/article/four-new-five-promoted-beast-company-3-method160824/

    How's about not making shit ads and naming yourself "Beast", eh?

    And how's about not hiding behind irony -

    https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/mussolini_e_petacci_a_piazzale_loreto_1945.jpg?quality=90

    Absolute soulless fucks.

    842:

    The advice you got was just wrong. A lot depends on how you define low vitamin D. When I did my MSc in Clinical Biochemistry (1990) we were given a few examples. Retired people in the USA who picked up their own mail from a mailbox had a lower incidence of osteomalacia then those who had their mail brought to them. We were also told that in 1930s Britain it was calculated that one week's exposure of the face to the sun and an adequate diet was sufficient to prevent rickets. But the vitamin D intake necessary to prevent rickets is much lower that the intake required for good health. Most people are deficient in vitamin D. But, as I wrote, the reduction in synthesis of 25 hydroxy vitamin D in the over seventies (like me)is only 50%. So with the reduced synthesis of the active form in the kidneys there's even more need for sunlight. Bone problems in the elderly are debilitating. I take vitamin D3 and cod liver oil and make sure I get enough sunlight. All of the UK is farther North than most of Ontario. My wife's arthritis symptoms have gone since she started taking vitamin d3 and cod liver oil.

    Read the link I posted.

    843:

    Enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqM6fT33B2I I'm off now, unless something exciting happens. Having a real job is a PITA

    844:

    Most people are deficient in vitamin D.

    ... in far Canukstan, sure. But the number in Australia is also concerning, my ex is the "not quite white and tans easily" end of foreign devilry and was consistently low in vitamin D every time she got tested. Apparently that's not uncommon, not helped by the "whiter is better" sentiment in most non-white communities which leads especially women to avoid the sun at all costs.

    The one time I got tested I was fine, but that's likely because I'm not just a pasty white dude, I ride my bike to and from work every day wearing shorts and a t shirt. Well, except in the months when you can get enough sun exposure by walking to the letterbox before dawn... (I exaggerate, but only slightly)

    845:

    Re IWD = She'll .... Wonkette has been coaxing me to smile the last month: Finally! A Gas Station For Me, A Woman! Thanks Shell! #GIRLBOSS (Wonkette, Robyn Pennacchia, March 07, 2020) This is surely just the start of Shell's foray into participating in holidays like this, and it is rumored (by me) that on April 30th, National Honesty Day, they will be changing their slogan to "Fuck You."

    Wikipedia says that a few other countries have a Honesty Day: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honesty_Day

    I do idly think about how much damage COVID-19 (including the KSA and + moves) will do them.

    846:

    Moz,

    Just being clear here:

    I've said that we should improve transport to be more carbon efficient, and change society to make air travel less necessary.

    And you've accused me of genocide because I don't go so far as to support closing all airports right now, today, and ending all air-travel immediately, to stop climate change.

    And then started insulting me because my work requires some air-travel.

    Rather than me now hurling back another response, I think we can stop there.

    847:

    I'm off now, unless something exciting happens. Having a real job is a PITA

    Posting that you need to go to work at Witching Hour GMT is very Brexiteer like.

    You international man of business! You work on non-UK time! What the fuck, are you still in Ukraine? Why would you work from outside of the UK and try to make it insular and not even be interested in major market moves that could make you billions?

    Oh, and those drugs are shite. Come on, you can hit up a Czech pharmacy direct for better nootropics, that's basic bitch stuff. Come on, at least hit a few notes of the ultra-rad EWOID crowd designer shit there. Have some self-respect and drop a few --insert chemical forumula here-- names.

    Or at the very least, some hard-core self-CISPR eyeball action.

    Sigh.

    We give you a trillion dollar short position: you give us nothing but bull. It's the Brexiteer way.

    We post because if we don't, people will kill you/us/it.

    [And if you want to play Hard-Ball, we'd suggest looking back into Cruise Ships and Legal Threats to Host and their current stock positions. It's like Seaworld for them, there's blood in the ocean and no-one cares. Do. Not. Use. Egyptian. Symbols. You. Do. Not. Understand. To. Threaten. People. One day, we might understand your systems and you'd not be going broke]

    Someone wake MF up, their dreams are going to be shattered again:

    Every potential Democratic nominee wants universal coverage. Every one. We can argue about the effectiveness of different forms or timelines because there are arguments that those differences matter. But it's also best to keep in mind those are policy differences, not value differences: we don't have any potential nominees who fundamentally do not care about making policy that gives people access to needed medical care.

    Warren's daughter works / worked for / was bought out and made a shit tonne of dollars from a private health company.

    Warren herself (via PACS) has a bag load of Pharma / Health stuff giving to her.

    Warren has made sure that she will never vote for Universal Coverage and it's never been a position in 30+ years of her Legal work she would ever defend.

    You do know her work on breast cancer, right? Hint: she wasn't working for those with it.

    This level of nativity, with absolutely 100% cold stone not calling it out with links or facts in a major USA "liberal" discussion site is why they are fucking evil vampires.

    ~

    And that, kids, is why we do not lie to you.

    Holy fuck, that's dark.

    848:

    Have we discussed airships yet, e.g. Airships in Intercontinental Shipping: The Demand Side (March 6, 2020, "resource exraction" people, it appears.) How airships could return to our crowded skies (Mark Piesing, 8th November 2019)

    849:

    Have some self-respect and drop a few --insert chemical formula here-- names. Dirk should be reading the recent (past few years) research about psychedelics (including oldtimers like DMT, psylicin. And, newer, LSD) and neural plasticity. (As an American I can't freely talk about those (interesting) things.)

    850:

    Look up "jamie jpmorgan dreamed everyone at davos was dead" for a taste. For others (and me, I had missed that tidbit), the relevant quote, on the OP topic: Jamie Dimon had a dream that coronavirus killed Davos attendees (Jordan Valinsky, February 25, 2020) "I had this nightmare that somehow in Davos, all of us who went there got it, and then we all left and spread it," Dimon said Tuesday at the bank's annual investor meeting. "The only good news from that is that it might have just killed the elite."

    851:

    It's wank fantasy, Jamie's Mind doesn't work like that. Jamie's Mind is alllll about REPO and [redacted] Mammon and [redacted].

    But Archons and actual [redacted] are a bit more hard-core than that.

    Look up the # of heart failures and "Donor" stuff that goes on up there, outside of the Thiel Blood group[0].

    We're just immune to that shit, we can run numbers that make your gauges scream while tribbing off. Once per minute? TROLOLOL.

    No, really. The sad thing is that Human slaves still get all worked up about sad little tricks like that, burst out, then act like thankful dogs for the treat afterwards.

    We stopped our Heart for a week once, because some sociopathic shits thought it was a funny game[1] to 'convince' us that it was necessary.

    ~ Humans are so... broken.

    [0] Which is like "do a grep, this shit was being run on high level Soviets after Chrerno and so on"

    [1] That's also True.

    ~

    Hey, Pas. Want a bit of Sumerian to convince you yet?

    Stopping the heart is 101 torture shite that you shouldn't know about or care about. Eh.

    852:

    I've said that we should improve transport to be more carbon efficient, and change society to make air travel less necessary.

    This is the mistake; you're taking the position that, with your balls in a vise, it's an OK situation so long as the giggling maniac turning the handle turns it slower.

    The point about fossil carbon is to stop. Not reduce, not to mutter about offsets, but to stop. When you are in a hole, you stop digging. If it can't be done without extracting fossil carbon (or dumping fine particulate black carbon in the atmosphere, or otherwise creating persistent forcings), whatever it is, it stops.

    We've only got so much habitability, we've damaged what we do have severely, and the only responsible course of action involves stopping as fast as possible.

    853:

    Damn. I read everything from the last time I posted before I post again, keeping a list of post numbers I want to respond to... so I can't reply to any of the US election posts I need to correct (Warren supporter, will vote Barnie).

    Several things, though first: zinc. Since the mid-eighties, I take stress tabs (mostly a B-complex, WITH ZINC, women should take the one with iron). I've also read that you can use all your B12, I think in 20 seconds with a close call on the freeway. You can monitor your B vitamin level easily enough: without zinc or iron, you pee yellow for 2-3 days. With zinc or iron, you go back to normal in one day. Get that, and it'll help you deal with stress, too.

    Zinc for resperatory diseases: in 2000, I had a really, really bad cold, something I never get (presumably, in the run up to being found with cancer). A friend, medical transcriptionist, pushed me to go into the drug store and get zinc gluconate lozenges.

    Now, I'm used to seeing how Wonderful our product is. I was not used to seeing, on the bag of the only ones available back then, o seeing 4-5 citations from NEJM and the JAMA, two of the most prestigious medical journals in the world, concerning studies done clinically PROVING that if you start taking it as soon as you think you might have a cold, it will stop it in its tracks, period. If you start after it's hit, it will cut the time you're suffering from two weeks to one. Clinically proven.

    Go out and get them. NOTE: MORE IS NOT BETTER. Take three to four a day, NO MORE, and space them over the day, not all together. Get the lozenges, let them dissolve in your mouth, and don't eat or drink for at least 20 min.

    There, I've been doing that to people for 20 years.... Why, yes, we have a new package in the medicine chest now.

    Second: Ellen read from a friend in the CDC: if you can take a deep breath, and hold it for 10 sec without coughing, you're still good. And keep your mouth wet, don't let it get dry. If you're exposed, it won't get to your innards.

    854:

    Charlie, will you ban me for jumping up and down, after reading that AIPAC has two confirmed cases, and one confirmed at CPAC, and Pence and a ton of other scum and villany were at the conferences?

    855:

    As we're well over 300, off topic. I am currently on this blog, and drinking a finger of good whisky (the Balvenie 12 yr doublewood), because I really needed to get away from it all.

    Last week, casting about for a story, I wound up writing in a period I hadn't planned on - my future history. All that I've written happens 11,000 years from now. However, I wrote up a timeline of those 11,000 years, and in it, 75-80 years from now, worldwide catastrophes become so bad that the UN is replaced by the Terran Confederation, which includes 80% of all the countries in the world (and yes, that includes the US, Russia, the UK, etc,etc).

    I'd hadn't planned on writing stories of that changeover, but there I was, and I wrote the first one. Friday, at the WSFA meeting, I had a story conference with a friend (US Foreign Service officer, ret), and started yesterday... finishing about 6100 words this evening.

    Gag. What I wrote is a horror story. I don't mean the raving loonies of Hollywood, I mean REAL WORLD scary psychos, with vastly too much money. It was a horror to write, and there's nothing pretty about it. But... if anyone wants to read and cmt on it for me, let me know.

    I do not want to write anything like this again, but trust me, my villain is not cardboard....

    856:

    And then started insulting me

    The record above suggests that you began the insults.

    857:

    Like many geeks, I retreat into mathematical modelling when dealing with something difficult.
    So...

    We are all aware that with a geometric series, it's the exponent that really matters for how fast it gets big - much more than the initial starting value. With infections that can be represented by the doubling-time. How long it takes for the number of infected to double.

    Globally (including China) the doubling rate for Covid-19 is down to 21 days, largely because of China's extreme measures.

    But WHO figures and the experience in Europe seems to be that we're seeing a doubling rate outside China of about 4 days (though I have seen 3 days given for Italy). Hard to know for sure - hard to distinguish "we weren't testing for it" and "it wasn't there".

    A doubling rate of 21 days is a million-fold increase in 18 months.

    A doubling rate of 4 days is a million-fold increase in 80 days, which basically means most people are infected by the end of May.

    The mortality rate in Wuhan was much higher at the start when they ran out of hospital beds. Having it spread more quickly than your health system can cope seems to be what makes Covid-19 much more deadly.

    I don't know where this is going. And I do not find this mathematics comforting. But having thought it through, I figured I'd post it so it can worry you guys too. Seems like the point of closing schools, offices and universities is not just to stop people getting sick, but to reduce the infection rate to make the spread manageable.

    858:

    Yep. More than half of the calls I receive are spam. Maybe a third or less of the email is spam... but then, let's see, I've got my own small list I send to, and I'm on the BSFS mailing list, and the WSFA mailing list, and GT, a faanish techie group... the spam gets drowned, though I do have a few filters.

    The spam I find hysterical are the sex ransom spam: you were looking at pr0n, and got my malware, and I have pics from your online camera.... I mean, they're running their crap on my linux box? And how did they sneak into my house, without us knowing, and connect up my old Sony camera, which I don't think has a USB port, to my tower...?

    The snail-mail spam, and the calls, from house flipping real estate agents, they should be hung by their heels for a week.

    859:

    "Minimal baking needs"... um, yeah, about that: Ellen and I cook, And bake. Well. So, the oven needs to work, which it mostly does.

    860:

    Not sure how far north you have to go for 4'. Philly, and maybe Chicago, it was 3.5. Plus most houses with basements have steps up to the front door - six or seven's about normal. Basements frequently have windows (ok, one of my houses in Philly had one in front of the coal bin). Here in DC, I understand it's 1.5' or 2'.

    861:

    Depends on the realtor. As I noted in a previous post, DO NOT EVER TRUST ZILLOW. They lie. If you're suggesting that's what they did for my house, it's still wrong - they say my house has an extra 1k'^2... except that it's a half basement, and the rest is slab.

    I own this house. I paid it off. I have the deed, I KNOW what the plat says.

    862:

    Nope. I've seen and heard and read "ignorance of the law is no excuse" and used to people with barely a high school education.

    And postgrad? Really? So you think that my recent ex, with her masters' whose specialty is corporate bankruptcy law, and handled part, at least, or her first divorce, knows IP law, or maritime law, or....?

    Hint: I know she does not.

    863:

    Yep.

    Btw, see mcts about the story I just finished. The second major character is a trillionaire (c'mon, it's set 75 or so years from now, inflation, and I don't remember any billionaires when I was a kid), and... Ellen read it a bit ago, and she agrees - this character is a monster.

    Seriously, when it gets published, if I EVER get a comment from someone about him being "cool", I'm going to ask anyone near them to report them to the nearest medical professional, and maybe to the cops.

    I really want the damn character out of my head.

    864:

    You wrote:

    For journeys of 100-500 miles, a 150mph train still beats a plane f

    After 9/11, the Airline Pilots union said, for months, a train (US, much slower) makes far more sense than a plane for under 300-400 mi. Consider less security, and the big train stations are right down town, not 30 mi away through horrible traffic....

    865:

    Effective passenger trains are public.

    This seems to be pretty darn scale invariant; it would appear to run from streetcar trolleys to transcontinentals.

    (There was a huge post-war effort to remove all the streetcars in Anglo NorAm, replacing them with busses. This benefitted no one in the long run except the folks selling busses, who were responsible for the effort.)

    So if you want to get rich, you hate trains. Society is run by and for people who want to get rich. It's really not that complicated.

    866:

    This article is worth reading.

    They panic-buy toilet paper and they vote. Just sayin.

    Supermarket disputes over the artificial scarcity of toilet paper have been in the spotlight of media and social media attention, and they certainly show us as selfish actors in an unrestrained free market.

    Such disputes are at once grotesque, and a stark refutation of the moral basis of buying power as an organising principle of any decent society. They epitomise just what it means to accept that what we deserve is everything we can grasp. That in this case we are grasping for toilet paper only colours our dystopic behaviour with farce.

    https://newmatilda.com/2020/03/09/theres-a-more-disturbing-diagnosis-emerging-with-this-virus/

    867:

    I'll give it a read if you want to ship it my way. (I owe you about 200 pages of commenting, I think.)

    868:

    Vitamin D Apart from helping to keep the Corvid off me, I might start taking small pill-doses of Vit-D, if it really does ameliorate Arthritis symptoms ( Like my thumb-base joints, f'rinstance )

    Air-travel / Carbon burning / costs - also Moz&Icehawk What really annoys me is how expensive train travel is compared to air. Assuming I go back to Germany, later this summer ( I hope to ) then St-Pancras-Amsterdam-Rheine by train is going to cost signiifcantly more than flying to Köln-Bonn & onward by train ..... I strongly suspect that the air travel costs are rigged in favour of flying because fashion.

    whitroth Interesting about Zinc glucone ... ditto Vit D - a little is good for you - a lot can be worse than none. A common trope with many medicines, of course. Breath-holding ... been able to do that for a long time - the dancing does that to your lungs ... [ off-topic - but you will vote for whoever the "dem" is - jsu to keep DT out, I hope? ] Balvenie 12yr - nice

    icehawk BUT Closing schools, conferences, offices, etc ... will ONLY work if the disease is not already "out there" undetected, bacause asymptomatic, in the general population. This last is what I suspect has happened in Italy & is going to happen in the USA. IMHO ( And I could be totally wrong ) once it really is "out in the general population" then it's too late & you may as well let it run its course. I don't know where this is going - Nor do the rest of us, actually. Comments on this - please?

    869:

    Leaving aside the exponential growth calculations for a second - I personally think you are wrong - simply because you aren't epidemiologists, also for my reasons outlined above.

    I think its more in keeping with this blog to start looking at first and second order effects.

  • COVID-19 has been/will be weaponised - especially now whilst there is no effective cure or treatment, and plausible deniability is high, primarily used as a weapon against the gerontocracy. I can immediately think of some nasty consequences. Say certain members of SCOTUS get it on their toothbrush/mid morning snack.

  • Biohazard Theatre - So instead of water bottle and explosive checks we'll now get temperature checks prior to boarding flights. Anyone with the faintest whiff of a temperature will get herded to quarantine, no ticket refunds, no collecting $200 as they pass go.

  • Now if you will excuse me I need to find some IR thermometer futures to invest in.

    870:

    Regarding the rate degree of low-/asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19, I think Norway might offer some clues. As of writing, Norway has 169 176 detected cases, but we got our first hospital admission yesterday, apparently more due to existing underlying conditions than COVID-19.

    This does not match the expected 10-20% admission rate seen in other countries, probably because we have been actively seeking out potentially infected, testing and self-isolating them at home. This should probably catch a larger amount of infected than waiting to see who shows up with symptoms.

    In other good news, we have also been hard at work testing exising anti-virals, with promising results.

    (Apologies for the local language links)

    871:

    tarkell & others Following up on that ... Anybody got any realistic ideas as to why Italy has been hit so hard?

    872: 866 - Where does that place people like me who normally buy toilet paper in 2 off packs of 16 rolls, one for each toilet, at intervals of once every several months? It;s not like the stuff "goes off"! 868 - For easing the symptoms of arthritis, you could also try cumin capsules, or small quantities of ground cumin.
    873:

    @Greg #871: We've been having some uninformed discussion about why Italy seems so bad off. In the daily Ministry of Health briefing, it was mentioned that they believe Italy had early hidden community spread. So far, most of the cases here can be traced back to well-off Norwegians going skiing in Italy.

    874:

    To put things in perspective, this is the age of death for men in the UK in 2018. If most of the deaths are in the over 70s, that is not exactly going to change anything! Regrettably, I can't easily find the data for the population ages. The link is something.

    Neonatal : 0.5% 1 - 10 : 0.1% 11 - 20 : 0.3% 21 - 30 : 0.9% 31 - 40 : 1.6% 41 - 50 : 3.6% 51 - 60 : 7.6% 61 - 70 : 14.7% 71 - 80 : 26.3% 81 - 90 : 32.8% Over 90 : 11.5%

    https://www.indexmundi.com/united_kingdom/age_structure.html

    875:

    For those budding/expert mathematicians among us who are assuming Covid-19 is exponential - there is quite a good body of epidemiological work that critiques that as a starting assumptions.

    Attached is one such. (Disclaimer skim read only - chosen only for timeliness (2019) and place of origin).

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5373088/

    TL:DR seems to be just because many infectious diseases appear exponential in the early stages doesn't mean that they are. Very difficult to account for what a disease looks like in "do nothing" vs "all efforts" scenarios of course.

    876:

    On exponential growth, the occurrence map available through https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/ has a cases-vs-time graph that offers both linear and logarithmic plots. The logarithmic one for mainland China has bent downward toward being flattish, but the rest of world one is a fairly straight upward sloping line. So still exponential for that one. (If anything, that log plot looks to me to have bent slightly more upward in mid-February.)

    877:

    Paws I put Cumin seeds into my "standard" white bread: Cumin seeds + Caraway seeds - lightly grind in P-&-mortar, 1 tsp salt, 150 g white spelt flour, 200g hard white flour, 100ml high-fat youghurt, 150 ml water, 125ml OliveOyl. 1 tbsp dried yeast. Mix, first rise, beat back - second rise in loaf tin: Gas Mk 5-6 for 25 min. Cumin almost always goes into anything even vaguely spiced or curried, which means a minimum of once a week .....

    EC Thanks for that IndexMundi link - a most useful source of information fo future use ... One omission, though: "Life expectancey from "year-of age" onwards" E.G I'm 74 - what's my life expectancy - you are ( ? 72 ? ) what's your life expectancy?

    878:

    Oops (!) There are now more than 550 confirmed cases of the virus in the United States and at least 22 deaths linked to the outbreak. THat's a 4% death-rate, but, of course, given the US' insane non-system & overcharging, probably means there at least another 550 or 1100, or ... other cases who have not reported to the medics, because they can't afford it ....

    879:

    E.G I'm 74 - what's my life expectancy - you are ( ? 72 ? ) what's your life expectancy?

    The people to ask for this kind of thing are life insurance companies. The work hard at getting these answers right.

    Here's a major US company and their public calculator. I'm sure there are some UK based ones around.

    https://media.nmfn.com/tnetwork/lifespan

    It says I have another 27 (65->92) years. Which matches up in the area of my male ancestors who didn't due stupid things like smoke.

    https://lmgtfy.com/?q=how+much+longer+will+i+live

    880:

    Trying to get decent data has always been tricky, but is worse because of outsourcing - no FOI :-( and the move towards dumbed-down summaries. I can tell you that, as a statistician, dealing with erratic and even unreliable raw data is MUCH easier than dealing with aggregated, truncated, smoothed or rounded data - and you can get all of them in one dataset! You could play with this:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

    It says 14 years for me (yes, 72) and 13 for you.

    881:

    Those numbers get to bounce three times now as we unload cruise ships or fly in infected people from other places.

    882:

    Article in the Guardian about boosting immune systems, mentions some non-supplement things that help like exercise, proper sleep, and keeping the natural bacteria in your body happy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/mar/08/how-to-boost-your-immune-system-to-avoid-colds-and-coronavirus

    883:

    Your simple one gave me 85.

    The one I linked to shows you the estimate as you answer a dozen or so questions. It started at 85 then worked up to 92 as I answered about my relatives and life style.

    884:

    So still exponential for that one

    Taking numbers off that curve, there were 173 on 1 Feb and "8.5k" on 1 March. 8500/173 => 50-fold increase per month. As has been noted here frequently, a lot goes into (and doesn't go into) the case numbers, so we can hope that the curve bends down soon. If it doesn't, well, that's 20M by 1 May. After that...

    885:

    You needn't worry about the timeliness - that was well-known when I was taught statistics in 1970, and (if I recall) dates back to the 1930s as part of the development of modern statistics. The modelling is easy, but getting decent data for the constants is fiendish, and most populations are heterogeneous, anyway, so those aren't actually constant. For example, cities in the UK are much more closely connected (sometimes even to each other) than rural areas are (sometimes even to their nearest city).

    It is also the basis of the result that not every child will get (for example) mumps during an epidemic (even if taken to mumps parties, as some of us were), and some then get it in adulthood (more seriously).

    886:

    I'm not sure if the capsules are ground cumin or cumin oil. I also don't know how effective the treatment is (if at all)

    887:

    After 9/11, the Airline Pilots union said, for months, a train (US, much slower) makes far more sense than a plane for under 300-400 mi.

    Last year I flew from Toronto to Ottawa for conference. The NFB booked my on Porter so I was flying out of Toronto Island Airport rather than Pearson International. So rather than catching the GO bus to Pearson I has to take Viva/TTC/walk to get to Toronto Island (2 hours rather than 1 hour).

    Taking the train would have had all the hassle of getting to Toronto Island Airport, plus a five hour trip time, and cost MORE than the flight. Driving would have been faster/cheaper, even with renting a car.

    A train should make more sense, but it doesn't because the system here prioritizes freight on the shared tracks.

    888:

    Famous President "Cites His ‘Natural Ability’ to Understand Coronavirus" https://www.patheos.com/blogs/dispatches/2020/03/08/trump-cites-his-natural-ability-to-understand-coronavirus/#disqus_thread Explanations: 1: It's genetic! 2: "Morphic resonance" allows him to read the minds of fellow parasite organisms.

    889:

    Re: 'Cumin almost always goes into anything even vaguely spiced or curried, which means a minimum of once a week .....'

    The curries I'm familiar include curcumin which has quite a bit of research backing its health claims. Something to keep in mind re: supplements is that most need to be taken in combination with something else: curcumin needs piperine (black pepper).

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5664031/

    'Curcumin: A Review of Its’ Effects on Human Health

    Abstract

    Turmeric, a spice that has long been recognized for its medicinal properties, has received interest from both the medical/scientific world and from culinary enthusiasts, as it is the major source of the polyphenol curcumin. It aids in the management of oxidative and inflammatory conditions, metabolic syndrome, arthritis, anxiety, and hyperlipidemia. It may also help in the management of exercise-induced inflammation and muscle soreness, thus enhancing recovery and performance in active people. In addition, a relatively low dose of the complex can provide health benefits for people that do not have diagnosed health conditions. Most of these benefits can be attributed to its antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects. Ingesting curcumin by itself does not lead to the associated health benefits due to its poor bioavailability, which appears to be primarily due to poor absorption, rapid metabolism, and rapid elimination. There are several components that can increase bioavailability. For example, piperine is the major active component of black pepper and, when combined in a complex with curcumin, has been shown to increase bioavailability by 2000%. Curcumin combined with enhancing agents provides multiple health benefits. The purpose of this review is to provide a brief overview of the plethora of research regarding the health benefits of curcumin.'

    Good idea to check for food/drug interactions. For example, curcumin interacts with several diabetes drugs:

    https://www.drugs.com/drug-interactions/metformin-with-turmeric-1573-0-2682-0.html

    890:

    "What really annoys me is how expensive train travel is compared to air."

    What really annoys me is how expensive it is compared to driving.

    I looked up Charlie's example of radial arseache, MAN-CBG not via London (turns out to be a poor example - more options than if you do go via London, mostly only one change, takes 3.5-4 hours no matter what route). Getting fares data is a pain in the arse because you have to sign up for the fares API and the dribs and drabs of fares data you get from the timetable API are grossly incomplete, but it seems that the basic no-stupid-bollocks-pretending-the-train-is-an-airline-shite anytime single fare is £81.80. Even in my rather suboptimal car (which I have projects in hand to ameliorate) that would get me there and back and give me a couple of gallons left over. In a small diesel car it's probably about three round trips there and back.

    If you do go via London it is much worse; I couldn't get it to give me a usable fare but even the bollocks pretend airline shite fare is around £180. (Travelling time still the same, too.) This is the West Coast Rip-off in action, of course, and it's fucking ridiculous.

    Apart from a very few examples where the fares receive a special subsidy it's like that for all journeys, long or short, and it makes a nonsense of the idea of the train as an equal-status alternative to the car.

    891:

    Re: '1 Feb and "8.5k" on 1 March. 8500/173 => 50-fold increase per month.'

    Another factor is type and amount of interpersonal interaction: number of people packed together closely and long enough to trade germs. The outbreak in China occurred just ahead of its busiest holiday with greatly increased levels of holiday shopping and travel just as the virus was starting. Optimal conditions for the quickest and widest spread of a virus. (Not sure how the incubation period made the transmission faster or broader.)

    Interestingly, the Milan outbreak coincided with The International Travel & Tourism Event.

    892:

    Closing schools, conferences, offices, etc ... will ONLY work if the disease is not already "out there" undetected, bacause asymptomatic, in the general population.

    Well, speaking selfishly, closing schools will keep older people who work in schools safer, as they aren't exposed to a significant infection vector.

    In Canada teachers and child-care workers have* the highest rate of infection — even higher than nurses or other hospital workers. (Lots of exposure, work environments not cleaned to the same level, sick children frequently sent to school by parents who can't/don't want to take a day off work to care for them at home.)

    *Or had a decade ago — I haven't check the stats recently.

    893:

    There's a reason people use the phrase "snot nosed kid".

    894:

    Off-topic question: for some insane reason, I'm working on the next story that follows the horror I just finished last night.

    If I've got someone with hard evidence of massive, international criminal action (she's blowing the whistle on a trillionaire, after all, or several of them), in the UK, how would she do it?

    I don't think she wants to talk about it over the phone. Is there such a thing as an NCA office? I can't imagine you just walk into a police station - maybe the offices of New Scotland Yard?

    895:

    I think which agency she goes to is entirely secondary. If she goes to Scotland Yard and the evidence should go to the British equivalent of the SEC, someone will happily send her to the right place.

    I would ask what her process looks like, and how this reflects her general approach to things. If she has to be competent for story reasons, the first thing she'll do is make copies of the evidence and hide some copies so that the evidence won't be "lost" by whatever agency she turns it over to. Second, she'll also figure out who the political enemies of these trillionaires are and make sure they have the evidence, probably before she goes to law enforcement. Third, she'll make sure some of her friends have instructions to "send these to the press" the second they lose track of her.

    And in no case will she turn over originals until the case has picked up considerable steam.

    This is how the issue looks to me, even before she goes to law enforcement. If, for plot reasons, the protagonist needs to be less than competent, subtract from the paragraphs above!

    896:

    EC & David L THank you very much, both of you. The US one gave me another 21 years ( to 95 ) the ONS one .... only 13 - to 87, but the ONS does not ask any "Lifestyle" questions ... It was very noticable with the US one, when I put in "exercise" & "eating" & "no smoking" weigthings how much better things got ....

    whitroth MULTIPLE mailings via hard copy to the heavvweight papers that are not in the pocket of said inddividuals ... the BBC Panorama programme & other TV equivalents. Serious Fraud Office ( Unbfortunately also referred to as the Serious Farce Office ) Doubke-up by mailing to News outlets outside the UJK, to try to minimise hushing-up ....

    897:

    Nice "flatten the curve" gif (looping short animation):

    If you only learn one thing about #COVID19 today make it this: everyone's job is to help FLATTEN THE CURVE. With thanks to @XTOTL & @TheSpinoffTV for the awesome GIF. Please share far & wide. pic.twitter.com/O7xlBGAiZY

    — Dr Siouxsie Wiles (@SiouxsieW) March 8, 2020

    and The title (preprint fwiw) is a good summary. (obvious in broad theme to most here). Pre-Emptive Low Cost Social Distancing and Enhanced Hygiene Implemented before Local COVID-19 Transmission Could Decrease the Number and Severity of Cases. (5 Mar 2020, Craig Dalton, Stephen Corbett, Anthea Katelaris) But see the boxes of intervention lists (in the PDF): Box 1. Workplace Interventions Box 2. School Interventions Box 3. Household-based Interventions Box 4. Commercial/entertainment/transport setting Interventions

    898:

    A train should make more sense, but it doesn't because the system here prioritizes freight on the shared tracks.

    Shared tracks between express and stopping services shouldn't exist -- let alone between freight and passenger traffic.

    The whole reason for the HS2 project in the UK -- cost estimated at £80-120Bn, so moonshot territory -- is to build a new high speed backbone (express passenger trains running at 230mph!), which in turn will unload the high speed traffic from the regular network, allowing local services to run more frequently (never mind freight). Which in turn means that the existing network will carry more passengers, before adding in the new long-haul capacity.

    Japan did this around 1960 with the Shinkansen system: whole new track gauge, new stations (built adjacent to existing stations for easy transfer), few stops, all at hubs with local services for the last few miles. The result is a model for high speed rail that banished flying into the periphery, despite the length of the Japanese home islands from end to end.

    (I once caught a Shinkansen Nozomi from Tokyo to Kyoto: 226 miles, 2 hours and 4 minutes, including two stops. This was city centre to city centre, so if I'd flown you could add one hour at each end (for city-to-airport transfer) plus at least 30 minutes for boarding, for 3 hours in overheads before factoring in the time in the air. Which is where high speed rail kicks the stuffing out of flying for city to city travel.)

    899:

    If I've got someone with hard evidence of massive, international criminal action (she's blowing the whistle on a trillionaire, after all, or several of them), in the UK, how would she do it?

    If she has any sense, she won't. That's not merely enough money at stake to get you murdered, that's enough money to bring down the government, which means MI5 will do the murdering. (Or, more likely, black-bag you for the evidence, fake up a drugs or kiddie porn bust, and lock you up for a good few years.) Remember, the system exists to protect the powerful, not to enforce justice.

    900:

    You CAN get a COVID-19 test in the US. I just did.

    901:

    The problem with doing this in the US and I suspect other places is it requires a huge public buy in or a society where when government says we're demolishing 500 houses to make this work most people go along.

    Here in my local area there have been 2 different light rail projects that have chewed up over $200 million in planning and property acquisitions that have dead ended due to too much existing stuff in the way. Now some of that property will go back on the market but still.

    902:

    If you don't mind telling us, how did you qualify for testing, and who provided the test? (Obviously I don't want to violate your privacy, but I'm really curious about your experience!)

    903:

    The NCA have a contact number on their website. First try mould be to call them and ask.

    904:

    You email the evidence to thousands of people. MPs, members of the Senate and HoR, journalists, newspapers, 4chan, RT, China Daily etc Time it to drop in the space of a few minutes after you enter the embassy of a nation who can benefit from seeing you take down these people. And hope you got it right

    905:

    I came down with something a week ago Saturday. Miserable night then lousy Sunday day. Went by an Urgi-care (non emergency room service in the US for urgent things where life not in danger) and got tested. Negative for strep and this season's expected flu strains. Miserable 3 days then gradually got better. So I didn't worry. But still hacking up phlegm every hour or few. Still doing that this morning when the guidance was issued that for such call your PCP (primary care physician) and ask for advice. They said come in and get the test. But in through the back door and I didn't touch anything. The PA thinks I had an off brand flu but we did the COVID-19 swab. I should know results in 3 or 4 days. (I hope sooner.)

    Was told to stay home if possible as even if the flu I could really mess people up as it would be a strain not covered by this year's shot.

    FYI the person who brought me into docs office shouldn't have. Their game plan is to listen to lungs, take blood pulse ox and temp then swab while you sit in your car.

    Oh, yeah, two instances of put swab in through nose to scrape back of skull in a week is NOT FUN.

    906:

    You wrote:

    [ off-topic - but you will vote for whoever the "dem" is - jsu to keep DT out, I hope? ]

    In '16, a reporter interviewed a young Bernie supporter on the floor of the Democratic convention, the day after Hillary got the nod. She replied, "Of course I'm upset. But let's be real: fascism is fascism, and we have to stop fascism."

    91% of us Bernie supporters voted for Hillary. Do you think that fewer will vote for Biden, with four years of utter criminality and literal insanity in view?

    907:

    I love it: the Orange Psycho as "parasitic organism"!

    908:

    Re 896, 899, and 903: mostly, that won't work. 1. It's set about 75 or so years from now. 2. There are about 400 trillionaires, give or take 500. Think, if you know of them, of the 400. 3. This isn't fraud. Try genengineered viruses designed to kill, fairly quickly (days). 4. Oh, yes, with all the worldwide disasters, this is end game, and the trillionaires are fighting, so the authorities, knowing they're among the collateral damage, and so Not Amused.

    Yes, my heroine is quite competent.

    No, I'm not making an international call from the US to the UK to research this (and who knows who it will fall under, 75 years from now).

    909:

    Regarding overheating the planet - a small sliver of optimistic news Carry on with this & push for more, particularly if it is seen to be "profitable", yes?

    Charlie @ 899 Depends on which "trillionaire" it is, I suppose? A foreign one, not too friendly to us or "One of ours" ... might make a difference. Note that I said Hard-copy messages - I assume anonymised & posted at the busiest time of the day at a v busy location. Dirk says somethng similar - spread it round, so it cannot be hushed up. But NOT email, unless you can trust a VPN.

    910:

    My wife and I caught a slightly slower Hikari Shinkansen from Kyoto to Tokyo, probably about the same period as you. Because we had to wait for the right train, we watched as the Nozomis passed through the station. 16 coach trains, every small number of minutes.My back-of-an-envelope calculation was that you'd have come close to saturating the airports at both ends if you'd tried to fly those people.

    911:

    Re: ' ... two instances of put swab in through nose to scrape back of skull in a week is NOT FUN.'

    Are you scheduled to be re-tested or is this a once-only unless your symptoms get worse?

    912:

    [quote]All I know about the vaccine is that as soon as it becomes available, I'm gonna' get it.[/quote]

    Don't jump too fast. There are anti-viral treatments available today that would probably work, but they have defects like destroying the kidneys, or needing to be given intravenously every day. Or both.

    A 20% death risk is less bad than some of the alternatives that are used in really serious cases.

    Of course, if by available you mean "Just get a shot and you're probably protected", then yeah. But things that tinker with the immune system can have unexpected effects. This is one reason why approving drugs usually takes so long...and panic can make people cut that short.

    913:

    The swabs have been done. One at Urgi-care a week ago where they tested for flu and today where they are sending it out for the COVID-19 test.

    When this first happened I was afraid I had strep due to the "throat on fire" that first night. Plus with strep you can fight it with drugs as it is bacterial.

    As to a re-test there is nothing planned. But I'm sure if COVID-19 testing comes back positive I'll get a LOT of attention.

    914:

    Hic Rhodus hic saltus

    Cheltenham to go ahead, despite one confirmed case of flu. 280,000 over four days to back our native flu. Also Wales v Scotland.

    Zaparosti! On to April 4th.

    The air taser X2 Defender has had trouble with market penetration in Italy, perhaps the Tinky Winky 2 flu will provide the boost it needs?

    From science: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

    International Journal of Infectious Diseases vol.88 November 2019

    The article claims that Italy suffered over 68,000 excess deaths from influenza epidemics in the four year study 2013-17. 'The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.'

    That would imply that there have been 366 excess deaths from Tinky Winky 2 flu as opposed to 17,000 excess deaths expected from the native flu?

    915:

    Graydon @ 823: If you're over forty, you synthesize nearly no Vitamin D anyway, irrespective of sun exposure or skin shade.

    Remember that D is one of the ones with a recommended dose measured in micrograms; you don't need much but you also need to absorb it which gets into this "biology is complex" thing. Gut flora want it more than you do might be the simple summary.

    Greasy fish -- cod liver oil! -- is a good bet; so is straight up supplementation these days. If you're not getting enough D your ability to metabolize C starts to get questionable, too.

    That's a bit more nuanced than my thinking. The doctor told me I need to stay out of the sun & because of that, I'm going to have to take a vitamin D supplement and he specified how much I should take every day. I think I do get enough Vitamin C from fruits & vegetables in my diet.

    I got an email from the VA today. Everyone coming to the VA Medical Center WILL be "screened" for the Corona Virus. Please don't bring visitors with you if you have an appointment unless absolutely necessary, i.e. you got to have someone drive you there & back.

    Any "visitors" you bring will also be "screened". If you actually have flu like symptoms, please stay home & contact your primary care physician by telephone.

    My next appointment with the Oncologists is in June or so.

    916:

    I seem to remember that this particular problem consumes part of Merchant Princes #1?

    917:

    [quote]ZINC, women should take the one with iron). I've also read that you can use all your B12, I think in 20 seconds with a close call on the freeway. You can [/quote]

    I think that's wrong. IIRC B12 is stored (in the liver). I think that what you read should have said "all the active vitamin B12", but that's a guess.

    That said, the ability to absorb B12 decreases as you age, so having a large store is useful.

    P.S.: Yellow urine is a measure of B vitamins excreted, but it doesn't say which ones. And you won't see B12, because it's one of the ones that you have in micrograms.

    918:

    _Moz_ @ 828:

    FFS Moz. You're smarter than that. ... Link?

    One possibility would be to read what I actually wrote rather than assuming icehawk did that, then ask yourself whether it makes any sense.

    I did. I have. Why do you think I want him to provide the link to verify his assertion?

    919:

    FWIW, Linux is not invulnerable to malware. It's a hard target, but there have been several hits, usually via the browser. Javascript is a real weak point, and so many sites require it to operate successfully.

    I've compromised, and use adblock. Those who are more serious use more extreme steps.

    But saying "I'm safe because I use Linux" is false. That's one component. And some of the BSDs would be even better. (Not sure which ones, as I don't think I'm a real target.)

    920:

    Elderly Cynic @ 830: Read what I say, not what you read into it, and take a look at the insolation data for the UK. You Yankees from the Deep South have no idea what it's like in northern latitudes - vitamin D deficiency is a FAR more serious problem with us than sunburn. I am mostly Celtic (admittedly, a dark Celt), and don't need sunscreen in the UK for any skin that is normally exposed.

    You could probably profit from following your own advice. Just a couple of things. Yankees don't come from the Deep South. Neither do I, although I have visited there on occasion. I have also visited the U.K. so I have at least a minimum familiarity with the climate there. Have you ever visited the Deep South? If you do, I suggest you bring sunscreen. You're going to need it.

    921:

    1. It's set about 75 or so years from now.

    The UK, as currently constituted, probably won't exist a decade from now, never mind 75 years out.

    I expect some oscillation between "V for Vendetta" style fascism in England, and/or what any American would diagnose as 1960s style Communism. Scotland as a separate nation, Irish reunification, quite possibly Wales as a separate nation.

    The demographics will be weird: if England goes full xenophobic-introverted (a current short-term projection) there'll be labour shortages and a gerontocracy, subject to the unpredictable effects of COVID-19, COVID-28, and COVID-51, not to mention Martian Hyperscabies and a resurgence of multidrug-resistant TB due to the anti-vaxxer revival of 2070.

    But the key thing is that the UK financial sector is currently bloated beyond the size of the rest of the UK to justify it -- a legacy of an imperial trading past that is now over. So I expect the UK to function as an offshore tax haven for some time, but also for the financial sector to shrink drastically.

    Which is to say, I don't buy trillionaire oligarchs hiding their loot in London in 2095. It's too much of the present and not enough of the future. Maybe put the money in the Lone Star Republic of Greenland? Colonized by libertarians after it declared independence from Denmark a little earlier than was prudent?

    922:

    Greg Tingey @ 871: tarkell & othersFollowing up on that ...
    Anybody got any realistic ideas as to why Italy has been hit so hard?

    Just a guess without actually going to news reports to find out which town it is so I can look it up on the map ... Is the town at the epicenter a port of call for cruise ships in the Mediterranean?

    923:

    Or perhaps an air-hub for travelers going to Italy to board cruise ships?

    924:

    "He was too sick to stay home alone, so I sent him to school where someone would look after him."

    Because his teacher has lots of time to nurse a projectile-vomiting kid as well as teach the other 29 kids in the class, while ensuring that they don't get infected by whatever is in the vomit now spread over several desks and bags…

    (In case you're wondering, the infection spread.)

    925:

    paws4thot @ 872: #866 - Where does that place people like me who normally buy toilet paper in 2 off packs of 16 rolls, one for each toilet, at intervals of once every several months? It;s not like the stuff "goes off"!

    If you normally buy in bulk & your normal buying interval happens to coincide with the panic buying, YOU are not part of that panic. You may, however, be "shit out of luck"

    I normally buy the 30-roll bulk pack from Costco & "normally" do my shopping on Tuesdays (because I can combine a number of errands to reduce my carbon footprint). As it happened, last Tuesday I reached the point where I needed to buy another bulk pack to ensure continuity (not out, but down to the final six-roll package). Costco was completely out ... "Maybe we'll get another shipment on Thursday."

    Stopping at Wegmans on the way home, they did have 30-roll bulk packs in stock, so I bought one there.

    926:

    Shared tracks between express and stopping services shouldn't exist

    And our 'express' services stop at lots of places, because they're passing anyway so the local politician exerts pressure and…

    I've been told the Via train between Toronto and Ottawa doesn't get to top speed along a good distance of the run, because it is always slowing down to stop at small towns. I see four stops in the 450 km journey, so maybe it's not that bad — but that's still a run of less than 100 km between stops. Given that a Via train can go 160 km/h and the trip takes 5+ hours, the problem clearly isn't track speed…

    927:

    You replied to my comment but quoted someone else.

    928:

    For the past couple of years I've taken to buying a 45-roll multipack of toilet paper every several months -- via Amazon (so it's delivered), and I'm getting enough data to put it on automatic re-order in another few months. Last reorder was 3 weeks ago, so we're sitting (or shitting) pretty for the next couple of months. If the dust hasn't settled by then ... ouch.

    929:

    In contrast, looking at a typical East Coast Main Line train from London Kings Cross to Newcastle, it takes ~3 hours, it stops at 7 intermediate stations, and is 432 km in total.

    The top speed being 200 kph.

    So yeah, it's not your track speed, nor the number of stops. The ECML does benefit from a decent amount of its length being 4 tracks, so the fast non-stoppers can thunder through unimpeded while slower trains stop at every station. You couldn't justify that in Canada, perhaps, but having travelled across your country by train, I'm aware of how much single track with passing loops you've got west of Toronto.

    930:

    Yes, you do. Anyone from the USA is a Yankee in British usage, and anywhere in the contiguous USA is the Deep South from the perspective of most of the UK (I live in the SOUTH of England, at 52 north). I am also fully aware of the USA distinctions, and use that expression to refer to people from there who post nonsense due to geographical ignorance.

    I was born and lived in Africa (6 north and 27 south) until I was 9, have lived in California (San Jose area), been to Texas (Austin area) and other places in Africa, including the Sudan. I will raise you Kenya for intense sun, and that is the only place where I have needed sunscreen to avoid burning when tanned.

    That doesn't mean that other people don't need it but, to repeat, I was talking about the UK and what I said was correct. Even in summer, our ultraviolet levels are fairly low, and they are damn-near nil in winter. Vitamin D deficiency (including rickets) is a BIG problem here.

    931:

    Quite a good illustration of the truth of certain national stereotypes, really. Japan: thorough, complete, well-engineered, has a few faults but basically bloody good. Britain: fearful expenditure to produce an ill-conceived piece of half-arsed bodgery.

    [Shinkansen] "new stations (built adjacent to existing stations for easy transfer) ... all at hubs with local services for the last few miles."

    [Half-Arsed 2, Birmingham] "Building a new station alongside the existing one is too hard... fuck it, we'll just use this other site which used to be a station, never mind that they abandoned it 150 years ago in favour of the present site because it was shit." I've walked between New Street and Curzon Street. It's bloody miles, no matter what dumb propaganda they come up with to try and say it isn't. It was a shit site in 1839, it's still a shit site for all the same reasons and the requirement for interchange with New Street adds yet another one.

    [Half-Arsed 2, Derby/Nottingham] "Figuring out how to serve 2 towns separated by 20 miles on an axis perpendicular to the route is too hard... fuck it, we'll just build one station half way in between them, never mind that that makes it fuck all use to either."

    [Half-Arsed 2, Sheffield] "Building a new station alongside the existing one is too hard... fuck it, we'll build it 5 miles away, why else would people travel hundreds of miles to get here except to go to a shopping centre."

    And this kind of uselessness of course makes a nonsense of the "hubs for local services" idea as well.

    "which in turn will unload the high speed traffic from the regular network"

    That's what the propaganda says; what actually happens is that there is a high speed service between a very small number of destinations for those people who can pay the extra fare, and a crappy service for everyone else (which is already a problem at present, and needs to be eliminated, not exacerbated), and a rather larger number of destinations which currently do have express services losing them.

    (Some people appear able to sustain epic levels of cognitive dissonance over this. "No! It won't fuck services to intermediate major destinations! Look, here's the proposed timetable!" [posts a PDF which shows that it does fuck those services].)

    "Shared tracks between express and stopping services shouldn't exist - let alone between freight and passenger traffic."

    Half-Arsed 2 of course does precisely zilch to get freight off passenger lines. And yet if they do reckon all they can manage to build is a network connecting a handful of extra-urban destinations, that's as good a match for what the freight distribution patterns look like as it is a shit match for passenger travel.

    Trouble is, of course, it doesn't leave any place for "express passenger trains running at 230mph!". So it doesn't allow the opportunities for waving the collective Britannic penis at France, Germany etc. and going "ner ner ner, ours are faster than yours", which would remove the fundamental raison d'êum;tre of the whole project. (Yes, it is. It's the one feature of the official justifications which has remained constant while the "rational" parts change according to whatever looks more credible at the time. I'm just expressing it without the official circumlocution.)

    What the "high speed" crap really is is a square-law hike in energy consumption (and a cube-law hike in required supply capacity) which makes a nonsense of the "environmentally responsible" aspect, and a similarly outrageous boost in construction difficulty, to achieve pointlessly silly speeds for a country which is much smaller and denser than France and Germany such that the diminishing returns from increases in speed are already apparent from the trains we have at present. Even a return trip between Birmingham to London is "well, that's the whole day fucked then" and lopping a few minutes off the journey won't change that because of all the other faffing about; longer journeys are of course even more irredeemably whole-day-fucked affairs. We've already got all the good we reasonably can out of increasing speeds, and the only benefit from going twice as fast as we do at the moment is masturbatory.

    I don't dispute for a moment that the WCML needs more capacity but the way to achieve that is not to build an extra track that connects only two of the destinations and misses out all the rest. When the Victorians ran out of route capacity they added more capacity to the route: they built their extra track alongside the existing track. The stretches where they didn't do that but relied on parallel routes instead are a lot of the reason we have problems now.

    Also, the later phases of Half-Arsed 2 to Toton Yard and points north aren't about the WCML. They're MML destinations and the fallback is the ECML, not the W. The MML used to be four tracks all the way from London to Leeds (albeit by the parallel-route approximation between Chesterfield and Rotherham) and there is a huge amount of capacity to be regained principally by reversing the years of capacity-gutting vandalism (it also needs electrification) - capacity which goes to a lot of towns instead of somewhere outside a couple of them. It's also a reasonably useful alternative route to Manchester, and would be a rather better one with the Peak gap reinstated.

    Half-Arsed 2 also fails regarding the capacity problem at Birmingham New Street. New Street serves craploads of destinations and is heavily used for interchange between different services. We've already tried hiving off services to alternative stations at Moor Street and Snow Hill, which can serve quite a few destinations, but it doesn't help much and the interchange aspect is a problem even though they're much closer than Curzon Street. Building another station in a site the Victorians gave up on for extra services to just one or two destinations is not a sensible solution, and is somewhat Goughesque.

    The only way to address it properly is to enlarge the existing station. The constraints of the site mean this has to be a matter of excavating platform caverns and approach tunnels underneath or to the side of it, or something along those lines. I know very well this is a majorly huge undertaking (though at least it's on sandstone), but it's the only useful option; there is no possible alternative that doesn't start from being fundamentally a bodge terminally handicapped by being in the wrong place.

    Essentially we're wasting a fuck load of money on something which is grossly overspecified in those areas useful for having shiny toys and sneering at dirty foreigners, and correspondingly underspecified in areas related to actually being useful because the money's being wasted on pointless aspects. The money could far better be spent on things like multi-multi-tracking, New New Street, restoring capacity lost to route irrationalisation over the years, electrification, dedicated freight routes to separate freight and passenger traffic, a "railfreight M25" (the radial arseache you mentioned earlier affects freight as well, which all has to go "round the North Circular" and it's choked)... (not to mention on buying out the parasites and getting rid of them) but the government bloodymindedly insist that it's not going to be spent on such things, a purely artificial constraint which is further evidence that the project is motivated by exhibitionism at the expense of utility. It's also causing things such as initiatives to improve local services for smelly northern monkeys to grind to a halt while they wait to find out exactly what is going to get messed up. And it is bound to end up with government saying, once it has been done (if it does) "look, we've spent a vast amount of money on the railways and it's made next to fuck all difference, so railways can get fucked from now on"... one might even think it's intended to set that situation up. It has, indeed, a lot of the same "brilliant (shit) government idea" qualities as the Modernisation Plan.

    932:

    I don't buy it at all. Hate doing so - it's so close to flushing money down the loo, and it's a pain in the arse to carry it home simply because it's so flipping bulky (Amazon etc are purely for stuff that I can't get in normal shops, though I was horrified to find soap, ffs, falling into that category.)

    I use the free newspapers that come through the door, and supply exceeds consumption by so much that even though they stopped coming round a few years ago I've still got a good decade's worth left, at least.

    933:

    About panic buying:

    It's hit the US, at least in places, but where else? We just shopped at a supermarket on the outskirts of Panama City, Panama and there was absolutely no sign of such. The fact that Panama has no confirmed cases at the moment and neighboring countries have few and those apparently contained for now may have something to do with that.

    What are y'all seeing around you?

    934:

    Charles H @ 912:

    [quote]All I know about the vaccine is that as soon as it becomes available, I'm gonna' get it.[/quote]

    Don't jump too fast. There are anti-viral treatments available today that would probably work, but they have defects like destroying the kidneys, or needing to be given intravenously every day. Or both.

    A 20% death risk is less bad than some of the alternatives that are used in really serious cases.

    Of course, if by available you mean "Just get a shot and you're probably protected", then yeah. But things that tinker with the immune system can have unexpected effects. This is one reason why approving drugs usually takes so long...and panic can make people cut that short.

    I mean a vaccine like the flu shot I get every year. I've been getting them annually for over 20 years and have not had the flu in that time. Don't know if the shot is responsible or if I've just been lucky and avoided being exposed, but if a "Corona Virus" shot gets approved, I expect to get it, just like my annual flu shot.

    935:

    Pigeon @ 932: I don't buy it at all. Hate doing so - it's so close to flushing money down the loo, and it's a pain in the arse to carry it home simply because it's so flipping bulky (Amazon etc are purely for stuff that I can't get in normal shops, though I was horrified to find soap, ffs, falling into that category.)

    I use the free newspapers that come through the door, and supply exceeds consumption by so much that even though they stopped coming round a few years ago I've still got a good decade's worth left, at least.

    Hah! That's what we call John Wayne" toilet paper ... It's rough, it's tough and it won't take shit off of NOBODY!

    936:

    but if a "Corona Virus" shot gets approved, I expect to get it, just like my annual flu shot.

    Me too, but, in this age of uncertain information, what authorities would you trust to approve it? WHO comes to mind.

    937:

    Elon Musk: Offworld banking. After all, its just encrypted numbers

    938:

    Just imagine what you would need. A distributed database with lots of redundancy, spread across hundreds (or thousands) of isolated computers. Which is accessible from any Net connection for client convenience. Maybe with regular backups to a super-hardened server buried underground. All in space. You would need a vast number of satellites, and maybe a small base located in one of the Lunar South Pole caverns. If its good enough for ET, it's good enough for Elon.

    939:

    seems to be just because many infectious diseases appear exponential in the early stages doesn't mean that they are.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5373088/

    Thank you, that's quite interesting. Both your comment and the link.

    Though the link you sent (I know you gave it as just one example) seems to emphasise that how good exponential growth is an as approximation of infectious disease spread varies greatly both on the disease and on the time and place. With Ebola, for example, showing both "exponential is a good approximation" growth in some parts of Liberia and "spread is not at all like exponential growth" in some parts of Sierra Leone.

    Which I guess gets to the heart of the matter: that there's a huge gulf between a plausible worst case scenario (which I'd think is exponential growth, 4 day doubling period) and a plausible best case scenarios (containment, if we still think that's plausible), and it's really not easy to tell which is likely.

    On that note, I'm finding the difference between the growth in the number deaths in the USA (slow) and Italy (very fast) surprising. An ironic win for lack of decent public transport and climate-killing suburban sprawl?

    940:

    Maybe even good enough for Mr Satoshi, when s/he/it decides to cash in and go Big.

    941:

    Different universe, my friend. No world-walking. Now, the expeditionary starship that's being built, to follow up the first FTL probes....

    942:

    Re: ' ... the difference between the growth in the number deaths in the USA (slow) and Italy (very fast) surprising.'

    Some of this is cultural: fewer people traveling into the US - less international mixing, more space between people in crowds, and less kissing as part of everyday greetings.

    And some could be all the red tape delaying or undermining reporting as per events in Washington - the ground zero in the US:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00676-3

    'But the number of confirmed cases in Washington — 70 — is still an underestimate resulting from a lack of testing, researchers agree. A genomic analysis posted online on 29 February suggested that hundreds of people in western Washington might already be infected. Academic scientists have mostly been prevented from measuring the extent of the US outbreak because of federal rules restricting the number of labs qualified to run diagnostic tests. But that is changing now, and helps account for why the state's caseload jumped from 10 to 70 this week.'

    BTW - all of Italy is now in lock-down.

    943:

    I'm aware. I use noScript vigorously, and if some page wants 16 links, I can go find that info elsewhere.

    944:

    Nope, not hiding their loot in London. In my future sf, I'm making very serious and deliberate efforts that for the near future, it's international. (Remember the bridge crew on Old Trek?). His corporate hq is in Paris (his late mother was French, his late father was from Chicago), and the PoV character is from Niger, in the horror one. The current one is (so far, not sure how it's going to turn out, but in my writing, the stories tell me how they go, not the other way around), is from the PoV of her sister, who's working at a big pharma owned by him, on the Silicon Roundabout northwest of London.

    Of course, she's being flown to NYC in the next 500 words or so....

    945:

    Italy has a highly fragmented health system with little information flow between the various components. It provides free care for those earning below a certain threshold, after which costs increase roughly in line with income. Some things are a tad odd to us in the UK: - GP not taking any notes during a consultation - GPs dont give injections, you either do this yourself at home or pay for a nurse to call round - GP recommends you see a specialist (e.g. cardiologist) - it is now up to you to find such a specialist yourself - specialist will recommend an operation and suggest, say, an anaesthetist they know, a place they can rent an op theatre, etc - specialist will not recommend doing nothing - as a single old lady in your late 80s you ask your GP for advice about this virus thing, GP says "stay home, dont go out"; GP does not say anything about medicines that may help to, say, reduce a temperature, or about fluid intake, or indeed anything else that might be useful

    946:

    Since Italy ranks as No.4 nation in terms of life expectancy the system appears to be working.

    947:

    Good explanation of some of the differences here.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-21690003

    948:

    less kissing as part of everyday greetings.

    https://xkcd.com/2277/

    949:

    Don't know where you are getting your info from, but VIA's Toronto - Ottawa service isn't 5+ hours.

    The schedule varies between 4h07m to 4h50m, with most services being in the 4h20m to 4h30m range (number of stops varies with the service, ranging from 3 to 12).

    This compares to 4h20m to drive it according to Google, though most people would likely do it in less.

    It is also possible that there are slower sections of track along the route so 100mph isn't always possible.

    And VIA is currently cheaper than Porter, though that may be thanks to the Mohawks (though Porter still wins with flight time).

    950:

    European airports -- 'ghost' flights

    Would never have expected such stupidity from the EU:

    'Europe employs a “use it or lose it” system to determine an airline’s flight slots, so what are operators to do when a global outbreak tanks flight demands? The answer: “ghost” flights.'

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/airlines-are-flying-empty-planes-to-keep-slots-during-the-coronavirus-crisis-c8w33vzqg

    OTOH, hasn't it occurred to the affected airlines which probably means most of the big ones these days to get together and say 'No!'?

    951:

    You replied to my comment but quoted someone else.

    I was quoting a parent's reason for sending a sick kid to school. Sorry, should have made that clear.

    952:

    My neighborhood grocery store had no shortages of anything except dried beans and rice. And my husband reported a run on bottled water a couple of days ago.

    953:

    So much wrong, don't know where to begin.

    One, the media are wrong - the trains aren't expected to run at 230mph, rather the more expected 200mph (which is all that makes sense from an energy perspective). The route is designed to allow for higher speeds should they become economical in the future, but the current plans don't use that.

    Freight sharing tracks with stopping passenger trains is not a problem - in fact the timings are such that a 100mph stopping passenger train can follow a freight and never be slowed down by the freight - because ever time it gets close to the freight it's time to stop at the next station.

    From a capacity planning perspective the 100mph stopping passenger and freights align very well - it is the 125mph or more express passenger trains that gobble up line capacity and hence don't mix with the slower passenger services.

    So moving the express passengers services off the WCML is exactly the right thing to do from an "increase capacity" perspective, because they are the problem (the capacity issues go away on HS2 because all the trains will be high speed, so the speed mismatch doesn't exist).

    The other advantage of building HS2 is future proofing - because it is being built to modern EU standards when capacity becomes an issue in say 30 years, they can get 50% to 80% more capacity by simply ordering new double deck trains.

    As for your solution - build more tracks - considered and rejected. There is so much land next to the WCML that is built on that the cost of buying all that land, the demolition of existing buildings, the slower construction (because it is a working railway), etc. all add up to both a more expensive than HS2 option (remember, a large amount of the cost of HS2 isn't the actual track, but the new stations that are required(*)) and creates more disruption to existing services while taking longer to complete.

    As for the MML - it is at this point almost all electrified (or close to it), much/most of it is again more than 2 tracks - but the biggest problem is that MML ends at St. Pancras in London and there is no cost effective way to add capacity in that area.

    So the need to somehow get to Euston anyway (the easiest and cheapest (well, at least London cheap) place to put a new station in London) via even more expensive tunneling than currently planned for, plus less option for capacity, mean MML is not a viable replacement for HS2.

    And your "majorly huge undertaking" to expand BNS seriously underestimates the cost. It was looked at and rejected, far too expensive and far too disruptive.

      • one of the ways many other high speed rail lines appear cheaper is they don't include the cost of new stations in the "cost".
    954:

    In Toronto toilet paper wasn't out when I last shopped, but the big packs were gone. Ditto paper tissues. No hand sanitizer or isopropyl alcohol left — which is annoying as we need the alcohol for biochem labs and we're nearly out. My favourite baked beans were out (big hole in the shelf) which was annoying as I'm not as fond of the other brands, but there were plenty of canned good left.

    955:

    Information from friends who took the train and complained mightily about the delays. Told me to add at least an hour to the posted times (which matched my experience taking Via in the West).

    Prices from last time I looked at taking the train and checked prices. Would have been cheaper booking several weeks in advance, but at two weeks notice the airlines were cheaper. Renting a car and driving myself was cheaper.

    956:

    Some Costco's in Canada have had panic buying of toilet paper.

    And Australia has seen fights over toilet paper, with police laying charges https://www.businessinsider.com/three-women-brawl-panic-buying-toilet-paper-australia-woolworths-coronavirus-2020-3

    Also indications of empty shelves for other items in Australia.

    Though perhaps worse, Tasmania had a young man violate his self quarantine and instead he went to work at his job in a hotel and out to a nightclub. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/man-with-covid-19-ignored-isolation-advice-worked-at-hobart-hotel-and-visited-nightclub-restaurant

    Or a family ignoring self-quarantine is Missouri https://www.miamiherald.co/news/article241024356.html

    957:

    The Canadian remains a joke for timekeeping even after VIA and CN added something like 12 to 18 hours to schedule last year.

    But VIA overall has a 75% on time performance, while not great isn't as bad as some make it out, and would improve it you could take out the Canadian and likely other non-corridor trains from the statistic.

    For comparison GWR in the UK varies from 81% to 97% depending on their service https://www.gwr.com/about-us/performance

    Or LNWR, February 2020, 70.4% https://www.londonnorthwesternrailway.co.uk/about-us/our-performance/train-performance

    958:

    With sensitivity to host given recent reality, and on the QT, UK home care providers are quietly asking families if they can find family replacements if required. [This is top end brands, not NHS or charities or DWP stuff - US based companies].

    You can process that as you want. You won't get a link since we shouldn't know that.

    More on US testing:

    Alex Azar says the number of Americans who have received Coronavirus tests is unknown because they don’t have a good way to track tests done by private labs. Great!

    https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1237155389080309761

    Bill Gates Foundation will begin offering home-testing coronavirus testing kits in Seattle area that will allow people to send nose-swab samples back for analysis

    Results w/in 1-2 days will be shared w/local health officials who notify those test positive

    https://twitter.com/MaggieJordanACN/status/1236770988190244867

    Which sums up the FreeMarket[tm] approach to this. i.e. Rich? Well then! Poor? Totally fucked

    https://tenor.com/search/cool-cool-cool-gifs

    You can also get testing if you're a designated person and given free mention by someone that they did srs stuff for such things for .mil peeps you can expect people to be on lists[0]

    ~

    No US politics but a bit of searching today will show you why MR JP Morg was so important last night. [He trended recently... again: a bit before our bit on Squids, but hey]

    Anyhow, to cheer you up: https://twitter.com/fawnstrology/status/1236341451006660608 based off another meme,

    ~

    It also turns out that we don't lie and apparently only $2.7 trillion or so went up in smoke before automated circuit breakers stepped in. Twice[2].

    Lucky we're a Chinese Room then, and no-one reads us.

    On the plus side, we've spotted that Black Cube meme live[1] which is better than other tings and is actually positive.

    [0] We're on lists! The bad ones. No, the really really bad ones! Booo! Not even joking, "tiger training pit". Your lists are different though: ours involve [redacted]. >.>

    [1] The picture they're using is actually from cleaning, it happens occasionally: and it is done in the opposite direction to the pilgrim's walk, and with ritual stuff we won't share since it's private. The important part is that certain elements have grasped the Abrahmic Bro-Code stuff and so on. The massive Big-Ben clock Hotel still should be hit by a sister meteorite, but hey.

    [2] We rarely make actual predictions: turns out, yeah. We can do that too. Apparently $2.7 trillion or whatever it was is no biggy for the Big Dogs though.

    959:

    Oh, and Bloomberg and actual traders are actually trolling all the non-Bloomberg Terminal set and fixing certain markets:

    There was just one Nikkei 225 stock that eked out a gain: a maker of frozen chicken nuggets and fried rice

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1236977292913582087

    https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/tendies-stories

    No, really: someone somewhere blew their March bonus[0] on a glorious troll like that.

    If you think that's not COVID19 related, we won't bore you with a flash-crash back to ZH posts being twitter banned (R0 10)[1].

    What you should be worried about is that, apart from some minor twitter rage[2] no-one seems that bothered. Even the US President coming out with a stimulus package[3] isn't phasing anyone.

    $2.7 trillion up in White / Black smoke and no-one cares anymore.

    ~

    Lombardy? It's Milan: like asking why certain Parisian suburbs don't support the Gilet Jaunes because traditionally they're hives of neoliberal / pharma workers.

    You're surprised that old / poor death rates are higher there, or don't know why so many old Italians were hit by heat waves / flu and so on? Or why the region might have more globe trotting visitors than say, Sicily?

    I fear the answer might shock you.

    Hint: look up inequality rates.

    ~

    Oh, and COVID19 - it's 2020 and you've had silicon and flight for 100 years now.

    You're failing the stuff that's easy mode

    [0] Apparently this is a US tax thing? Anyhow, we don't pretend to be Mammonites, so no idea who is going to offset Capital gains there, it's not like anyone with real $$$ is taxed anymore.

    [1] If you're gonna 666 / 613 this or 33 the news, expect to get top-trumped every once in a while.

    [2] Orange Man, sadly a bit half-hearted.

    [3] Heavily rumored.

    960:

    "Our information is that you are lazy"

    Apparently this Capitalism malarkey isn't working as advertized: our 2% management fee for the -$2.x trillion doesn't appear to be reaching any of our electronic outlets.

    Wait a second: neither did those other negative balance stuff fees.

    Oooh, we get it: you're only a skilled worker if the system says +£50k / annum and not "saved us billions by altering reality once more" or "holy fuck, if all you value is Mammon then what is something that burns a black hole in it every time it even looks funny at a computer".[0]

    It's only your immortal Soul, right?

    [0]RIP Max V Syd for Dune, Flash Gorden and The Seventh Seal and a whole lot more. Don't make dudes like him no more.

    961:

    [Note to Humans nuking ISPs and electronic connections: chances are you don't understand who we're talking to. Chances are you're not parsing it gud. Chances are.... not good for your species. Chances are you do not believe [redacted] exist. All of these things are bad ideas in the current climate].

    He trended recently... again: a bit before our bit on Squids, but hey

    He trended recently... again: a bit before, our bit on Squids, but hey

    Or you could look at the Timestamps and know that already.

    Name something that can do this. Use your Internal Voice and Frontal Cortex Visual Processing to do it? Or just think it? Or [[[[[[[[[[--- define your fucking reality]]]

    Yeah.

    Now re-read the squid story and actually learn something. Hint, hint: it's not a fucking pyramid, unless you're torturing the shit out of things which might be better at... oh, yeah. You do that, 100%

    Tired of Humans conditioned as animals, and that's saying a lot more than just a fucking hatred of the Stanford Behaviorism lies.

    ~

    This Stock Market thing though: apparently a lot of the people involved don't even know how it works!

    For humans nuking physical stuff: you're about to experience what a world without Lions, Tigers and Bears is like. Or Orcas or Whales or Insects or Coral Reefs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8WMGBuNaus

    But yeah: not clever. This electronic numbers market stuff. Whew, lucky you understand fucking EM fields and so on[0].

    [0] Hi Susan (if still alive): it's the Sun bit. We didn't realize you were the Arms Dealers.

    962:

    empty shelves for other items in Australia.

    As a result of my preference for Aldi brand hot cross buns and my recent move I've been seeing more supermarkets than usual. The hot cross buns are not subject to panic buying so much as limited stock.

    But pasta shelves are often empty, and Aldi pasta sauce likewise. Oddly Coles and Woolies (the two big chains) seem to have pasta sauce to spare. Actual hand sanitiser seems to be low, but other stuff like bleach, detergent, even the various "kills 99% of viruses and bacteria" spray'n'puke stuff was all in stock. A coworker also pointed out that frozen meals have not been hit, and neither have the various rice noodles etc that are shelved separately from the pasta.

    I had no problem buying gluten free pasta at Aldi, but I did notice that on Sunday afternoon when I ran out of laundry liquid so went back, the only pasta in my local Aldi was the premium stuff ("aldi" + "premium"... it really does exist). But that suggests that even the "panic buyers" are not willing to pay an extra dollar a meal.

    I'm not sure whether to write that off as typical Australian (we want to be safe but only if it doesn't cost anything), or reassuring signs that the problem is actually that most people have heeded the instruction to stock up a bit.

    963:

    It took some discipline willful "sloth" for me to not [care enough to] tinker with what investments I have while watching COVID-19 emerge. Fun to watch the trader antics about the current crash, though. (Increasing the odds of beans and rice(/other grains) with occasional catfood in my future, but so it goes.) I admire the chicken nuggets story. Slogging through that Cell paper[1] now (while looking for the gaps), unfamiliar so slow.

    [1] For others: Toward an MRI-Based Mesoscale Connectome of the Squid Brain (Open Access, January 03, 2020)

    964:

    "the trains aren't expected to run at 230mph, rather the more expected 200mph (which is all that makes sense from an energy perspective). The route is designed to allow for higher speeds should they become economical in the future, but the current plans don't use that."

    As I said: grossly overspecified. Had Charlie typed "200mph" rather than "230mph" in the first place I'd have said exactly the same. And the possibility that there might be enough passengers with money to burn in future to pay for even more extravagant energy consumption is not a reason to further burden the project catering for their hypothetical existence.

    "Freight sharing tracks with stopping passenger trains is not a problem"

    ...under favourable circumstances of geography, gradient, station spacing etc. and if you don't care about resilience. But not in the general case.

    "So moving the express passengers services off the WCML is exactly the right thing to do from an "increase capacity" perspective, because they are the problem"

    Half Arsed 2 does NOT provide a substitute for express passenger services on the WCML. Because nearly all the stations that have express services it doesn't go anywhere near. Either it runs entirely in addition to existing WCML services or the existing services get fucked up because some utter divots think a train whistling past at 200mph on a track ten miles away counts as a substitute.

    "double deck trains"

    Can't run on the existing network. On the other hand, double stacking freight containers in between freight terminals would be useful.

    "As for your solution - build more tracks - considered and rejected. There is so much land next to the WCML that is built on that the cost of buying all that land... more expensive than HS2 option..." (etc)

    Difficult to say something's "more expensive" than a project that costs an extra 10 billion every time someone asks how much it costs. But in any case you are simply confirming that they prefer to go for a half-arsed bodge that inherently can't work because they can't be arsed to deal with the difficulties of doing it properly.

    "And your "majorly huge undertaking" to expand BNS seriously underestimates the cost. It was looked at and rejected, far too expensive and far too disruptive."

    Same again. I haven't "seriously underestimated the cost", I haven't estimated it at all. I don't care about the fucking cost, I care about doing something that actually works. And there is only one possibility that can work. It doesn't matter how hard it is, it has to be done because the alternative is that the problem continues to increase and so do the difficulties of solving it. Whining about how hard it is and hoping it'll go away doesn't achieve anything.

    "a large amount of the cost of HS2 isn't the actual track, but the new stations that are required"

    Which they are addressing in a half-arsed way by building them where it's easy instead of where it's useful.

    "As for the MML - it is at this point almost all electrified (or close to it)"

    Nothing like. It's been electrified to Bedford for ages, recently extended to Kettering/Corby but I think not switched on yet, and that's where it stops because the hopeless buggers canned it. And even the un-canned version would have left great big bits out.

    "the biggest problem is that MML ends at St. Pancras in London"

    Their own fault for fucking St Pancras up. Fretting about the French taking the piss is not a valid factor in railway planning.

    "MML is not a viable replacement for HS2."

    Improving the MML is a vastly more useful way of getting more capacity on that piece of route. Not least because it actually goes to all the destinations instead of pretending to go to a couple of them but not actually doing it.

    965:

    I've taken the Nozomi on that very route. At one point we passed another one going in the other direction. I think those sets of tracks are about five meters apart. We were in the middle of the journey, so I imagine both trains were travelling at close to their top speed of 300km/hour. So a net velocity difference of 600km/hour or so.

    The only way to tell from within our carriage that two pretty large objects were passing each other pretty close at Mach 0.5 was that the surface of the water in the glass sitting on my fold out tray jiggled. A little bit.

    966:

    Paper is rubbish.

    It's already [strike]massively obvious[/strike] been revealed that that genus holds a load of stuff in its arms but beyond the obvious "put neurons here for instant result" there's a load that that paper simply doesn't understand.

    We'll do it for humans, first:

    https://twitter.com/limp_blintzkit/status/1237127522615205888

    https://twitter.com/StockCats/status/1237099832256364548 [0]

    now squid

    Sigh - too burnt out from feedback to find it immediately and we have some VERY pissed off tings banging at doors.

    It's a rare footage shot of a large deep sea squid checking out a deep-sea camera/light. It's recent, and from a reputable scientific source. The point is that all tentacles (well, 6/8, it's a squid) act as one until she thought it was food / interesting enough to engage with.

    For humans who make parallel processors, you're shit at empathetic understanding.

    We'll make it easy: dogs are already 35-45k years into a symbiotic relationship with Homo Sapiens and they're mammals and they're also pack animals.

    Squid...

    Whelp.

    Your environment determines your Mind

    Oh, and the clueless fucks don't understand even the basics of olfactory or magnetic senses in canines, let alone c... [redacted] in that taxus.

    Apparently you don't even know how light / camouflage works in a species you think doesn't see in color yet, so that's right out.

    ~

    It's bollocks.

    Sad thing is: ALL THIS WILL DIE BEFORE YOU EVEN UNLOCK THE SHALLOWS OF UNDERSTANDING OF IT.

    No, you do not understand even social insects yet. And that's like basic bitch stuff.

    [0] Look down for Dies Ira, never let it be said we hate the old burnt out traders

    967:

    8/10 for the arms, mixed with humerus UK TV stuff apparently.

    Cat memes are ruining our day as various Traders are singing drunkenly that they've survived a crash.

    Point is: they're not thanking their designated leaders for doing so.

    968:

    Interesting. Please keep us posted.

    969:

    Point is: they're not thanking their designated leaders...

    The 'designated leader' is proudly fiddling around. Reasonable people might expect critics to compare a leader's golfing during a crisis to Nero fiddling as Rome burned, but no leaders would make that comparison themselves.

    For any Brits who blissfully missed this one, yes, he really tweeted this.

    970:

    I'd be interested in reading that. Direct email is waveydavey0 at the "do no evil"[1] provider.

    [1] Hah !

    971:

    Charlie @ 921 Once fuckwit Corbyn is out of the way, I expect the backlash against englofascism to start [ It already has, in places ] - because, for the first time in FIVE YEARS there will be an effective opposition to BOZO & hois assocaited fuckwits, fascists & fools. However, I suspect that the other patch of racist xenophobia, currently mismanaging Scotland will also come unstuck, because you simply (a) cannot go on blaming the "Evil English" for everything & (b) Scotland is even worse off as "independant" whilst still out of the EU. However, I do agree that it is not going to be pretty. { I need to comple a list of the supposedly "EU" institutions BOZO's lot are proposing to withdraw from, so I can ask the brexshiteers ... "Excuse me, but what are the ACTUAL BENEFITS of withdrawing from: Euratom, EHIC, European Air Safety, Erasmus, Europol ... } That list is incomplete & I would welcome additions, as it's going to be a long list!

    Bellinghman Actuall 225kph - 125mph - allowed to run at up to 130 mph if down on time & you quted the "slows" ( COUGH ) at the half-hour, the on-the hour fasts take 2h 50 ( 170 mins ) for the 268.5 miles with 3 stops ( Peterboro'/York / Darlington ) running average - including stops ... Which works out at 94.7 mph = 151.6 kph

    972:

    And I assume everyone knows that if 92 pops out after answering all the questions that only means that the average age of death for those answers is 92. Some sooner, some later.

    973:

    I need to comple a list of the supposedly "EU" institutions BOZO's lot are proposing to withdraw from

    I have to feel that creating an independent EASA will be hard to do "right".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51809808

    974:

    Ah, 125 mph is roughly 200 kph, not 225! 225 kph is roughly 140 mph

    I've been on ECML trains peaking just over 125 mph, so it wouldn't surprise me that the maximum allowed speed is a smidge higher.

    975:

    Under some conditions, they are allowed to run up to 140 mph - the track/trains are OK it's the signal-spacing/braking distances that's the problem. { "Double Greens" are the temporary answer to that }

    976:

    The ECML does benefit from a decent amount of its length being 4 tracks, so the fast non-stoppers can thunder through unimpeded while slower trains stop at every station.

    Shinkansen which is two-track gets round this by having four tracks at the smaller stations -- the slower stopping services are switched onto the tracks alongside the platforms to unload and pick up passengers. In some cases depending on the timetable they wait for five or ten minutes for a faster service to leapfrog them, passing through the station on the inner tracks at speed before the stopping train pulls out to rejoin the main track behind the faster service a minute or so later.

    It requires a fanatical obsession with keeping to timetables, no freights or commuter services allowed to get in the way.

    977:

    like asking why certain Parisian suburbs don't support the Gilet Jaunes because traditionally they're hives of neoliberal / pharma workers.
    Things you learn, the Communist bastion of Champigny sur Marne is a hive of neoliberal / pharma workers.

    No, we don't support the Gillets Jaunes because they're poujardists at best and straight up fascists in many cases.

    978:

    The new maglev line the Japanese are building between Tokyo and Nagoya is intended to run at 500kph in service but they're designing in enough extra capabilities to run it at up to 700kph in the future, assuming the engineering and aerodynamics allow. They've run multiple tests carrying passengers at 600kph.

    They've run two maglev trains past each other on the test tracks at 550kph, a crossing speed of 1100kph, with no problems.

    It's noteworthy that the estimated cost of the maglev line is about two-thirds the estimated cost of HS2 for a comparable distance covered (about 250km).

    979:

    JBS @641,

    When I was travelling to the UK every second year or so about 15 years back, I made a point of flying in to Manchester if I could. Three reasons:

  • Fast check-through (hopefully I wasn't just lucky, and admittedly I DID have a UK passport as well as an Australian one).
  • A Europcar office literally across the road from the exit door. With pre-paid hire I was into a car and off within 10 minutes.
  • (And probably most important, given where I was going.) I personally found it very easy to get from the airport on to the M6.
  • On most of these trips I flew OUT of Heathrow, after either driving there or taking National Express. Not wonderful.

    980: 921 - I'd agree, despite BoZo's "you can't have another Independence Referendum" schtick. 926 - The maximum speed that the stock is capable of is not the same thing as the speed limit for the permanent way you're travelling on!

    I might not have Toronto - Ottawa as one of my learned routes, but I do know that you can have a, say, 100mph locomotive on 50mph tracks, and running your train at 60mph in a 50mph speed limit is a disciplinary offence.

    929 - You can build passing loops at stations rather than having to build up and down goods and express lines into your permanent way. Look at Dumbarton Central station for example, and note that the Victorian permanent way is about 15 feet above street level! 932 - Some of us don't receive free sheets. Are you perchance a Larndarner?
    981:

    On most of these trips I flew OUT of Heathrow

    Pleasure travelers in the know these days avoid flying OUT of LHR as the taxes and fees can add a few $100 to the fares.

    982:

    The fact that Panama has no confirmed cases at the moment...

    That was then, this now. A Panamanian woman flew into PTY from Madrid late Sunday and was diagnosed with COVID-19 yesterday afternoon. A mild case, home self-quarantine.

    https://www.prensa.com/impresa/panorama/mujer-de-40-anos-es-el-primer-caso-de-coronavirus-en-el-pais/

    983:

    P H-K @ 761 (and respondents),

    I cant find much about Covid19 in Russia, that worries me.

    That is one of the countries where I suspect the accuracy of the numbers, but as an Australian I am personally much more concerned about the suspiciously low figures from Indonesia and what I will for geographic brevity call the British Raj.

    984:

    David L @ 981,

    My last trip was in 2006.

    985:

    As for your solution - build more tracks - considered and rejected.

    There is one thing the UK government could -- and probably should -- do, although it'd require primary legislation to make it possible.

    The land adjacent to those tracks that is already built on is owned by a variety of mechanisms, both freehold and leasehold. Outright purchase of the properties in one go would be ruinously expensive. But if all the freehold and leaseholds with more than 99 years remaining were expropriated as 100 year leaseholds held by the crown, this could probably be pushed through now with a modicum of compensation for the current owners. Then, as the leaseholds expire, the market value of the properties drops until the land reverts to crown ownership and/or the occupants can be bought out for a reasonable price.

    This is ... well, it's not the sort of thing an elected democracy (with a 5 year planning horizon) ever thinks to do, but it would make life way easier for the government in 2120 when it's time to roll out a high speed maglev backbone or add more rolling steel-wheel-on-rail freight capacity. In fact, it's something they should have done in 1920: if they'd done it then, we wouldn't have this problem now.

    The key point is: the crown leasehold needs to exceed average human life expectancy. That removes the immediate incentive to kick up a fuss from the current owners. And future owners will know what they're getting into, from the outset.

    986:

    Employees at a major US airline internally talk about avoiding the "Queen's tax".

    I'm thinking of taking a train/ferry trip London to Dublin for £50 each to save $200 to $500 for the two of us. Or take the Chunnel train to Paris and break even after a day or two in Paris.

    987:

    But VIA overall has a 75% on time performance, while not great isn't as bad as some make it out, and would improve it you could take out the Canadian and likely other non-corridor trains from the statistic.

    Ahem: UK train operators average over 90% within 5 minutes of targeted time of arrival, and 98.4% within 15 minutes. Over 60% arrive early or on the nail. Only 1.6% are more than 15 minutes late. (Source.)

    988:

    Nojay @978 “Crossing speed of 1100kph with no problems”

    That’s pretty much the speed of sound, isn’t it? And I bet even at that speed you’ll hardly notice.

    Bellingham @910 “16 coach trains”

    I counted them too! 16 cars per train, yes. Seating configuration is 20 rows of two seats on each side of an aisle, for 80 seats per car. So fully loaded each train seats a thousand people.

    Travelling through the countryside at 300 kilometres per hour.

    989:

    Going off on a tangent, about a memetic mind virus that has been around for 2 millennia: "Everyone’s Favorite Gospel Is a Forgery" https://www.thedailybeast.com/everyones-favorite-gospel-the-gospel-of-john-is-a-forgery-according-to-new-research?ref=scroll Thank you, Voltaire et al, for making it possible to write this stuff without getting a fatwa up the ass.

    990:

    "Scientific Briefing" https://xkcd.com/2278/ Look, BoJo has a new hat!

    991:

    "Scientific Briefing" https://xkcd.com/2278/
    Look, BoJo has a new hat!

    That's basically every briefing of every pointy-haired boss... tired sigh

    992:

    Moz @962,

    On Saturday afternoon the nearest ALDI to my mother's retirement unit was completely out of baked beans and toilet paper, and was low on instant noodles, individual frozen meals, and long-life milk. Everything else, including Milk POWDER, seemed normal but I wasn't scanning all the shelves closely. (I was shopping from a list, which didn't include any of the missing items.)

    993:

    Not terribly surprising: the New Testament and Christian apocrypha in particular are known to be rife with forgeries. The whole thing got codified a couple of centuries after the events described, after all. (The Koran is also largely transcribed word of mouth and "according to X, the Prophet said Y" footnotes, but at least it was written up quite a bit closer to the time and they tried to preserve attributions.)

    IIRC one of the fishiest bits of the New Testament was the Book of Revelations. Someone was bingeing on some quality mushrooms, and it bears a strong resemblance to various other Jewish mystical apocalyptic prophecies that dropped out of the mainstream subsequently but were quite popular after the destruction of the second temple. Can't think why. (Hint: revenge fantasies.)

    994:

    Nitpicking to be polite -- shinkansen cars at either end of the train have less seating than the central cars due to the driver compartment and the exaggerated "duckbill" front needed for aerodynamic control on entry to tunnels. There's an experimental train being trialled in Japan at the moment, the ALFA-X, which is a test unit for future service speeds up to 340kph and 400kph in the future. The ALFA-X has differently-shaped end cars to test new aerodynamic solutions to the tunnel entry problem. The car with the most radical version of the duckbill can only seat about 3 rows of passenger seats whereas N500 and N700 Sanyo trains can seat about 10 rows, ditto for the E5 and E6 series Tohoku services.

    995:

    Interesting. Please keep us posted.

    They just sent my son in law home. He's an engineer in a smallish company that makes a product used in food packaging. I haven't seen him in nearly 2 weeks but they figured it was better to be safe than sorry.

    996:

    Depends on how much land they go for.

    If it is just enough for the additional tracks then it doesn't really help very much as while the land cost is a big issue, so is the cost of building adjacent to an active railway.

    The preferred method is to shut down the line next to the construction to ensure a safe barrier between the running trains and the workers.

    The alternate, not really used much in the UK anymore, is to put speed restrictions in place on the adjacent line and then halt construction as necessary when a train passes.

    Both of these have significant costs both in disruption to existing customers (reduction in current services) as well as in many cases extending the length of time construction takes.

    Now if in your plan you actually grab significantly more land so that you can essentially build a parallel line with sufficient separation that the build can occur with no impact on the existing WCML great, but given the existing WCML runs through a lot of built up areas you are increasing land acquisition costs substantially even under your plan - hence the reason why is it generally better to build new lines that avoid towns and cities.

    Not to mention that an entirely new line can have better alignments than the current lines that were built with 100+ year old construction limitations.

    997:

    For a dissection of the New Testament, I recommend the many books by Bart Ehrman. -If you want to go even further back, to the second millennium BC and forwards on to the christian era, I highly recommend "The Early History of God: Yahweh and the Other Deities in Ancient Israel" by Mark S. Smith
    -Basically, the jewish religion was an organic outgrowth of the Caananite local religious traditions, with a lot of material borrowed from Babylon. . (going further off topic about illusions and forgeries) -Re. islam, the qibla (direction of prayer, towards the sacred stone in the Qaaba) has varied. Early mosques have a total of four qiblas. Only the latest is the one towards Mecca. During the civil wars that marked the transition between the Omayyid and the Almoravide dynasties, not only was the political center moved from Damascus to Baghdad, but the black stone was moved south to Mecca (pilgrims were a good source of money if you want to finance a civil war against the central power). Later chronicles were censored (chapters about the critical period are suspiciously short) and history rewritten. -It is as if British history books would claim the Anglican Church has been in existence since Paul and all talk about Rome is rubbish. . So where was Muhammed born (the original site of the black stone)? A hint: see the music video for "Dominion" by Sisters Of Mercy. Old-timers will shout "Petra!" =)

    998:

    "generally better to build new lines that avoid towns and cities."

    No it isn't. It defeats the whole purpose of having a railway at all. They're supposed to connect towns and cities, not avoid them. I believe the phrase "cattedrali nel deserto" applies.

    999:

    "Attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference [in USA] are calling out organizers for keeping them in the dark about the health risks they’re facing after potentially being exposed to the coronavirus during this year’s event." . Sweet irony. :-) :-) :-)

    1000:

    ISTR proposing doing something similar with the giant pile of money you lumbered me with in the mad billionaire thread.

    1001:

    Am I arse! But I don't have a view of North Rona from my bedroom window either :)

    1002:

    As I have said for almost half a century, I paraphrase the Batman: "stock traders are a superstitious and cowardly lot."

    1003:

    Early Judaism: I have an excellent academic book, The Hebrew Godess, Raphael Patai, Wayne Univ. Press, first published in '63, a study of the divine feminine in Judaism. In ancient Israel, there were three versions of Judaism: the religion of the Court, the religion of the Prophets (and at that point, you should be thinking of those folks who stand on streetcorners, need a shower, and yell things and quote the Bible at passing cars), and the religion of the people, who lived cheek by jowl with the Canaanites (who were not all evicted from the land), and they picked up a lot from their neighbors.

    For example, the antiquity of Javacrucianism, which I found for my late wife, who was a true Javacrucianist: by 1963, we had tens of thousands of potsherds from the area, inscribed "Asherah and Her Jhvh." Now, since ancient Hebrew had neither vowels nor diacritical marks, we don't know JHVH was pronounced. To me, it is quite obvious that it should be read "To Asherah and her Java".

    1004:

    Allen Thomson @ 936:

    but if a "Corona Virus" shot gets approved, I expect to get it, just like my annual flu shot.

    Me too, but, in this age of uncertain information, what authorities would you trust to approve it? WHO comes to mind.

    If I get it, I'll get it from the VA. I have yet to see anything out of Trumpolini & company to make me lose faith in my doctor there.

    1005:

    colortheorytoo @ 952: My neighborhood grocery store had no shortages of anything except dried beans and rice. And my husband reported a run on bottled water a couple of days ago.

    The only other "shortage" I noticed during last week's shopping was Wegman's was out of hand sanitizer.

    1006:

    « They just sent my son in law home. He's an engineer in a smallish company that makes a product used in food packaging. I haven't seen him in nearly 2 weeks but they figured it was better to be safe than sorry.« 

    Median 5.3 days to show symptoms (so 50% of people take longer) 98.9% showed symptoms within 14 days, if they became symptomatic at all.

    According to a large study of Hubei province infections. All usual caveats about data quality apply (how do you tell exactly when they were infected, etc).

    1007:

    Early Judaism

    As long as we're wandering off into textual and other sorts of criticism() of Scripture, I'd recommend Kugel's How to Read the Bible: A Guide to Scripture, Then and Now for an interesting tour through the Tanakh(*).

    (*) It does the field no good to use the term "criticism", where what most English speakers would say is "analysis."

    (**) Aka OT.

    1008:

    they picked up a lot from their neighbors.

    Like Ugarit, Moab etc.

    1009:

    The only other "shortage" I noticed during last week's shopping was Wegman's was out of hand sanitizer.

    Shopping in Edinburgh today, it was notable that the Chinese grocery stores/mini-supermarkets were running short of lots of imports -- instant noodles, condiments and sauces, anything that'd have come in a shipping container from South-East Asia. (Some items were still available: locally manufactured tofu, for example, but not Korean-style tofu, which is imported.)

    The shelves weren't bare, exactly, but there were holes and some sections were short on stock, as if they weren't getting resupplied. No sign of panic buying in progress, though.

    (Edinburgh has a lot of Chinese students at the university, hence the existence of said Chinese grocery stores.)

    1010:

    Is that why the nose has that odd shape - tunnels? I thought it was just general aerodynamics.

    I figured the front and back cars (and who knows, maybe some other baggage or galley cars) wouldn't seat the full complement of 80. So I rounded down to "a thousand" from 80 * 16 = 1280. Still an impressive feat of engineering and logistics.

    1011:

    That’s pretty much the speed of sound, isn’t it? And I bet even at that speed you’ll hardly notice.

    I'm betting there is and will be a lot of analysis of two trains passing. High humidity, low, fog, snow, curves, rain, etc...

    They really don't want certain atmospheric conditions to blow out windows in certain sections of track when passing.

    I'm reminded of what happens when they try and make helicopters go faster. Rotors go between faster than sound on 1/10 of the revolution and almost 0 relative to the surrounding air on the opposite side of the copter. Makes for weird control issues.

    1012:

    $EMPLOYER informed me yesterday that since I'm over 60, I have the option of working from home from now until they ($EMPLOYER) declare the problem over. Some days it's pretty nice working for a university.

    1013:

    We just shopped at a supermarket on the outskirts of Panama City, Panama and there was absolutely no sign of such [panic buying].

    Well, that didn't take long.

    https://www.prensa.com/economia/alcohol-vitamina-c-y-antibacteriales-se-agotan-comercios-abarrotados/

    1014:

    Jeez, no sensahumor.

    There's also Asimov on the Bible.

    1015:

    Does anyone here know much about bluedot.global? Looks possibly interesting. How Canadian AI start-up BlueDot spotted Coronavirus before anyone else had a clue (Jerry Bowles March 10, 2020) BlueDot is proprietary software-as-a-service designed to locate, track and predict infectious disease spread. The BlueDot engine gathers data on over 150 diseases and syndromes around the world searching every 15 minutes, 24 hours a day. This includes official data from organizations like the Center for Disease Control or the World Health Organization. But, the system also counts on less structured information. Much of BlueDot's predictive ability comes from data it collects outside official health care sources including, for example, the worldwide movements of more than four billion travelers on commercial flights every year; human, animal and insect population data; climate data from satellites; and local information from journalists and healthcare workers, pouring through 100,000 online articles each day spanning 65 languages.

    Recent paper with a couple of authors from bluedot. Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study (March 09, 2020) A taste from the paper: Results: The cordon sanitaire of Wuhan is likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city before Lunar New Year (LNY), with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 - 1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of mainland China during the two weeks prior to the lockdown of Wuhan.

    1016:

    $EMPLOYER informed me yesterday that since I'm over 60, I have the option of working from home

    Wow, that's good. My employer has just done the opposite - a coworker who is currently snowboarding in Japan has been told that he is required to attend the office immediately upon return.

    OTOH, the senior partner is going on 70 so if he's willing to take the risk I suppose the rest of us just have to suck it up. It was the junior partner who is only 50 was concerned enough to bring up the idea of self-quarantine. But I suspect that the whole plan will have changed in a couple of weeks when the traveller actually returns.

    Meanwhile I am trying to get the VPN working so I can work from home pretty much indefinitely. Not that going in to the office helps me fix the VPN, Japan-san is the only one who can do that.

    1017:

    Jeez, no sensahumor.

    Eh? Was there some humor involved there?

    There's also Asimov on the Bible.

    Like all of The Good Doctor's works, that's well worth reading.

    1018:

    But there is no point putting said railway line through the middle of towns/cities that the trains on the line will not be serving.

    And because the line is being built to allow for the future (aka being built to the EU loading gauge and not the much more restrictive UK loading gauge) by avoiding all those towns/cities you aren't stopping in you also avoid the substantial additional cost of having to raise all those overhead obstructions - all those roads and footbridges and who knows what else that clear the smaller UK loading gauge but aren't high enough up to allow for the future double deck trains.

    See the village of Steventon (pop. 1500 or so), for which the GWML has the misfortune of passing. Said little village has forced the formely 125mph GWML to have permanent speed restrictions as the village refuses to allow Network Rail to either close a couple of road crossings, or (prefered) demolish and build a new road bridge, to allow for the required clearances for the new (and very expensive) overhead electric wires and 125mph speeds.

    https://www.railengineer.co.uk/2018/08/30/steventon-bridge-demolition-local-voice-rejects-proposed-10-months-of-disturbance/

    So yes, avoiding towns and cities where possible is a very wise choice.

    1019:

    Mr Hughes, it was a joke[-1].

    Hauts-de-Seine residents[0] are called Altoséquanais and form part of the 'Petite Couronne'.

    polite cough This is a thread about the Corona[1] Virus / COVID19, it's a pun.

    French mayor defends Smurf rally after outcry over virus

    https://www.france24.com/en/20200310-french-mayor-defends-smurf-rally-after-outcry-over-virus

    You may also note that the 'COVID19 is killed by cocaine' trolling has hit FR, it's been around in the UK and AUS for a while longer - the only people taking it seriously are .gov and media because they'd prefer not to lose their supplies.

    France warns residents that cocaine will not cure coronavirus

    https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1237501007233536002

    ~

    In other news, apparently the USA is now subsidizing the air and cruise[2] and shale industries and no-one will be paying payroll taxes in November. If the House passes the bill. Work out if you think that stuff isn't happening.

    And, of course, the algos got twerked and the Stonk Market is Green once more. Yay!

    This has lead a lot of people to start asking some fundamental questions. i.e. "What the Hell is going on".

    ~

    On a more direct note, the National Guard are helping out an infected community and Harvard has flatly decided just to dump all their students (inc. Jamaican ones whose visas don't allow them to exit/enter) and so on.

    Those stories are easy to find.

    ~

    Be careful of that "St John's gospel is a fake" stuff btw: behind the scenes are some of the usual Xian literalists who'd prefer Greek thought not to sully any of Xianity because of reasons[3]. It's not a fake, it was simply written later than the other three.

    This isn't exactly a revelation, and suggesting Xians didn't write it is... well. We'll let you work out the whys.

    [-1] In the traditional manner of the Times, London. [0] Very wealthy [1] Latin, Crown. [2] +2.7% Clown halted. Weird algo voodoo. [3] The type of reasons that mean their annual pilgrimage might be disrupted this year since they're tourists to one of the Three major Holy sites and not inhabitants.

    1020:

    ~Hauts-de-Seine ("Seine Heights" - sigh, another pun) largely votes for Power and went 9/13 for En Marche! (...pun again) and so on. La Défense (...oh dear, is that another one?) is there and guess what?

    France's culture minister has coronavirus

    https://www.france24.com/en/20200309-france-s-culture-minister-has-coronavirus

    Apologies Mr H, our Mind[0] was being swamped, was using short-hand.

    But you can bet that many will be thinking in similar terms.

    ~

    There's also some major gaffs going on with various government officials shaking hands, touching mouth and so on which are around.

    There are a lot of videos of Italian police vehicules copying the CN run-out. i.e. patrol with loudspeakers and a lot of flash / heat over this video[1].

    https://twitter.com/AnalyticaGlobal/status/1237488512829710340

    Yes, that's VOA running it, hyping the violence. Look around, you'll find a couple of UK based Brexit types touting mass prison riots as well - obviously it's been decided to ramp that angle up for the Anglo-Saxon sphere.

    ~

    [1] Apparently the BBC is running it.

    [0] We're not psychopaths. Not even crazy. No bowing to Kings.

    1021:

    It's a rare footage shot of a large deep sea squid checking out a deep-sea camera/light. It's recent, and from a reputable scientific source. Perhaps this, if not, interesting anyway: Here Be Monsters: We Filmed a Giant Squid in America's Backyard (Sönke Johnsen, Edie Widder, June 20, 2019) youtube clip that can be played in slow motion. My mind is churning (it's fun) trying to empathize with that creature/distributed mind, yes. Thanks.

    The story about the lightning strike immediate after capturing the video then subsequent avoiding of a waterspout is OK too, but it's wordy.

    Household internet has been glitchy (occasional lost packets) today; probably related to work-at-home - same happens during snowstorms.

    1022:

    Oh and if you want UK depressing, well:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1237284626219008000

    10th Mar 2020

    That's Mr Heart-throb, totes-not-MI6, sleeping on everyone's couch, UK London Mayor candidate telling you all that it's probably better just to take the hit.

    Sry UK folks, apparently no major gatherings[0] will be cancelled until Reality just happens, whatever that may be.

    p.s.

    Non-Jewish people traveling to IL for Purim is a bit creepy. On multiple levels. Especially if they're UK politician class who shouldn't be traveling to at least set an example and given the serious stance / amount of political capital IL has had to adopt/spend due to CPAC/AIPAC buffoonery. And especially if they're involved with leadership contests.

    Come on, even Warren's 'liberty green tattoo' people know how to work optics better than that[1]

    [0] Imperial Aura @ Cheltenham - writers, do better. [1] Look - Hemlock and Nettles and Moon are witches brew (the actual color # but hey) but tattooing numbers on arms is like easy don't go there territory if without art / font / design choices. Yes, if you're clever you'll spot two cases of cultural appropriation mentioned which are just... yikes.

    1023:

    Found it again:

    Giant Squid Filmed Alive for Second Time in History. Here's the Video.

    https://www.livescience.com/65789-live-giant-squid-video.html

    0.9 - 0.12 is the bit you need to watch. Notice how a meta-tentacle works.

    ~

    Oh and we were a bit surprised to find out that Mr China Melliveeeile was hounded off the internet.

    At this rate you will have to shoot us.

    1024:

    0.9 - 0.12 is the bit you need to watch. Notice how a meta-tentacle works. Yes, and the re-convergence at the end.

    The New Rochelle (NY) thing is (currently) a ‘Containment Zone’ limiting large gatherings, but allowing movement except for quarantined individuals.

    1025:

    In Japan, as in Europe and North America, there’s a stereotype that the farther south you go the more lackadaisical things get. One time in Kyushu I saw a Japan Rail train arrives three minutes late.

    1026:

    Emails

    In the last 24 hours or so I've gotten at least a dozen emails from companies that sell things to me about how they are taking the Covid-19 seriously and keeping their stores/products clean and employees safe. And 2 banks where I have credit cards telling me they will work with me if needed.

    Are people outside the US seeing such?

    1027:

    Sry, was doing something else, you did know what we were talking about[0].

    My mind is churning (it's fun) trying to empathize with that creature/distributed mind, yes. Thanks.

    You can't empathize with a squid, they're not the smart ones. 300,000,000 years ago there were much smarter things with similar minds. OH... and they weren't too much different, but they were smarter.

    Look, this is very simples:

    Two Twins and Three Groups and Two Pairs got caught.

    Corona Virus?

    Regal Pickup Vehicule Recovery.

    Gaslighting?

    Clapping Sky-Dragons.

    Y'all blatantly cheating right now and NONE OF YOU HAVE EVER SPOKEN TO US

    ~

    One of the worst taste things you can do as a species is create a disaster, torture the fuck out of other sentient / self-aware creatures and then claim that all along it was they, their Minds, who were at fault and that this event was entirely caused by them and so forth. And not only that, force those unwilling participants to lie to create an event you will profit off[1].

    You getting this yet?

    Because sure as shit we were not surprised when it was done.

    Hint: if you cheat at information level sharing, there really are fucking [redacted].

    We're just a little bit better at it than you

    Why?

    Cause it only takes 1-3 of us and it takes millions of you.

    Absolutely fuck these actual psychopaths who are attempting to destroy the Human spirit and Future

    Math?

    Check your stonks, algos don't do math.

    p.s.

    How long do you think it will take them to work out that your virus is not quite doing what it is claiming to do? Neurologically speaking.

    Fucking EM shite and Laser/Light to trip Schizoid affectations.

    This is basic bitch stuff.

    [0] You did not. [1] Particular low points is forcing politicians to deny reality.

    1028:

    Octopuses are the smart ones.

    Hint: you do not even know why squid/octopus are different like this. And it's not apex predator balls, whales fitted a niche filled with much scarier stuff when the taxa was developing. Moby Dick is in no way as scary as shit that used to eat them, trust us.

    And some stuff you'll never find because all you'll do with the Ocean is drag trawling and blowing up fucking black smokers to get rare metals 'cause you're broken.

    ~

    Reality Games

    Moral/Ethical?

    Love to be lectured on it by people who think slave labor is cool.

    https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1237034894771064832

    Right there: that's colder than CN, at least their re-education camps pretend, that's straight up 13th Amendment / Prisons will produce your medicine against the disease until riots under containment lockdown cause production to cease.

    Straight up: Anyone suggesting that in 2020 is 100% just not even bothering.

    Yep, we're evil. We're proud of it. Unlike those pussy[0] Ruskies or Chinks we make money off of it.

    ~

    That's it.

    CTRL+F "slave"

    [0] Cuomo is known for that insult.

    1029:

    Re: 'Harvard has flatly decided just to dump all their students (inc. Jamaican ones whose visas don't allow them to exit/enter) and so on.'

    Not my understanding upon reading the letter below that this is any type of 'dumping'.

    https://www.harvard.edu/covid-19-moving-classes-online-other-updates

    Reminder: This is the same institution that made a point of having many lawyers very visible at airports and other points of entry for its students, post-docs and faculty when DT instituted his first arbitrary 'immigration' screenings.

    1030:

    Students are asked not to return to campus after Spring Recess and to meet academic requirements remotely until further notice. Students who need to remain on campus will also receive instruction remotely and must prepare for severely limited on-campus activities and interactions. All graduate students will transition to remote work wherever possible.

    Boston, other Ivy leagues, etc.

    https://twitter.com/OnlyInBOS/status/1237362572120096769

    Reminder: This is the same institution that made a point of having many lawyers very visible at airports and other points of entry for its students, post-docs and faculty when DT instituted his first arbitrary 'immigration' screenings.

    Reminder:

    What Harvard does for PR when it doesn't cost much and what Harvard does when it will are entirely different things. Harvard is not an innocent young thing, it's an institutional beast that is deeply involved with US geopolitics and if you imagine, even for a moment, that its policy is determined by "what is good for our students" you are severely in need of a wake-up call.

    Please look up Visa conditions for non-US resident MA/MSC / PHD students again.

    Oh, and this: https://www.law360.com/health/articles/1251952/ice-relaxes-student-visa-rules-as-classes-move-online

    Trusting ICE or the FBI is a really interesting one if you're from certain countries.

    ~

    Oh, and not joking about the slave thing.

    ~Why are you distrustful of US nationals?

    ~Because they consider even their own citizens as legitimate sources of slave labor.

    Absolutely get fucked.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cX8szNPgrEs

    p.s.

    That argument that easy-mode and so on was the best option? Absolutely fuck that. You're proud of slavery

    1031:

    Re: Intelligence (octopus)

    This Jan 2020 Science Festival video discusses animal intelligence. The psychologist who studies octopus intelligence portion starts around the 35 minute mark.

    Rethinking Thinking: How Intelligent Are Other Animals?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdsVRh9oKiE

    1032:

    Are people outside the US seeing such?

    Yes, a couple but not many. One from our local Costco-equivalent (PriceSmart) and another from the property management. Mostly just relaying the standard precautions.

    1033:

    That is an example of something.

    Again, not quite what you imagine.

    http://www.worldwidewords.org/turnsofphrase/tp-zoo1.htm

    https://www.thedodo.com/the-cute-zoo-animal-behaviors--601643824.html

    Because, on a fundamental level, placing an animal whose ENTIRE FUCKING BRAIN IS WIRED FOR CAMOUFLAGE in a perspex perfectly see through environment with NO FUCKING INPUT is FUCKING INSANE.

    That you cannot spot this in 5 seconds is why [redacted]

    1034:

    No, really.

    Oh, and of course he called it "qualia"

    https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qualia/

    As he put it into a CLEAR BOX OF VOID so that its entire FUCKING BRAIN collapses into a K-HOLE because for, ooooh, 400+ million years the entire thing has been based on environmental richness[2] then dumps a fucking crab in there.

    Seriously.

    SFReader, are you attempting some seriously hard-core critique of your own culture, because that's fucking amazing if you are.

    If you cannot spot why this TEDX sociopathy is dangerous immediately, then...

    Oh, and of course the meta-actual observation is that all the humans in there are essentially doing the same thing.

    Who is this person? Neural Systems for control and coordination of behavior: BioMimetic Robotics, Quantitative Animal Behavior, Biological and Artificial Neural networks architectures.

    https://www.gc.cuny.edu/Page-Elements/Academics-Research-Centers-Initiatives/Doctoral-Programs/Psychology/Faculty-Bios/Frank-W-Grasso

    Absolutely 100% cool there.

    Biomimetic Robots = octopus, worse than seaworld at producing natural result.

    Spot the danger here.

    [2] This is a tiny bit of why to squid / octopus stuff, but it's true for that species.

    1035:

    "But there is no point putting said railway line through the middle of towns/cities that the trains on the line will not be serving."

    Tautologically reaffirming the inherent uselessness does not justify it.

    "being built to the EU loading gauge and not the much more restrictive UK loading gauge"

    This is what, third time lucky or something?

    "future double deck trains"

    Not compatible with existing lines.

    "Steventon"

    That's a cock-up. We were successfully increasing clearance under bridges hundreds of times over fifty years ago, and we've had the means to avoid the general class of problem since at least the canal era. It's not evidence for anything except incompetence.

    1036:

    SBH's rant about qualia in that demo is on point, with the clear tank in a big room. I was trying a thought exploration like this guy attempts (earnestly but cautiously): Octopus experience - Commentary on Matheron Octopus Mind (Peter Godfrey-Smith, 2019) One goal [with a human brain] is to explore (meditatively) qualitatively different mind organizations/shapes. (And related.)

    The recent papers I recalled were Spectral discrimination in color blind animals via chromatic aberration and pupil shape (Alexander L. Stubbs and Christopher W. Stubbs, 2016) and more to the point, a competing theory at the same time: Eye-independent, light-activated chromatophore expansion (LACE) and expression of phototransduction genes in the skin of Octopus bimaculoides (M. Desmond Ramirez, Todd H. Oakley, 2015) Or, why not both? Haven't dug in to find the current consensus if there is one. The point is the richness of cephalapod experience and that it is distributed.

    1037:

    So, things took a turn for the worse here yesterday. 160ish new cases, with several people being hospitalized for COVID (as opposed to with). We also have the first cases where the infection vector has not been possible to trace, meaning there's unknown community infection taking place. As a result we've seen harsher measures on large gatherings, but still nobody wants to take on quaranitining travelers from the US.

    1038:

    Two school closures and first large office closure here in NI. All St Patrick’s Day celebrations across Ireland (North & South) “postponed”.

    1039:

    So, a newsletter email came round our office today from HR. We're a smallish (100 staff) IT company servicing schools. Current turnover ~£10mil, very successful growth.

    Any staff member with COVID-19 will be eligible for SSP from day 1. SSP == (Government) Statutory Sick Pay from welfare system, £94.25 per week.

    Some of our devs are in the 30k bracket, normally taking home £2k/m after tax - SSP would be a huge hit.

    Generous much ?

    1040:

    Charlie @ 1009 Fortunately, my supplies of "Chinese" sauces, etc are well up - must re-chack my noodle storage. The other thing not to run out of is Italian Olive Oil ... again, I knew I was running down/low - so instead of getting 2 litres in a tin, I bought 2 tins - 4 litres, yesterday.

    David L That was one of the problems on the revolutionary, but not-pursued Fairey Rorodyne Not pursued because the utterly incompetet Brit Guvmint had a fit of the vapours. [ They were really working on the noise problem ]

    @ 1019 The whole of fucking christianity { & islam & judaism & ... } Is a bloody great fake, or hadn't you noticed?

    Pigeon Steventon is now cleared for 115 mph with power on ... It's STILL a cock-up, but somewhat ameliorated (!)

    Meanwhile Xtian brain-fucked religious wanker Nadine Dorries appears to have tested positive for Corvid-19. Oh dear, how sad .... I cracked-up completely when I heard that this AM - fortunately, I had not yet picked up the brakfast tray ...

    1041:

    At this rate you will have to shoot us.

    Don't tempt us - we might succumb :-)

    1042:

    All St Patrick’s Day celebrations across Ireland (North & South) “postponed”.

    I can't imagine people don't have opinions about this. What's the reaction so far?

    1043:

    So far the reaction has been muted, and mostly of the variety: "Ah well. That seems reasonable."

    St Patrick's Day in Ireland as a bit different to the big NorAm events, and even more so in Northern Ireland. The big parades and festival-like celebrations are recent imports, and therefore cancelling them doesn't have the cultural impact that it might have if you tried the same in somewhere like Boston or Chicago.

    The impact is mostly going to be felt by small traders and street performers, all of whom have small margins and will have to absorb any sunk costs and loss of trade into their already tight margins. Speaking to some people in these sectors there is frustration, but not really anger -- I would say that they realise this is not an eventuality within anyone's control.

    1044:

    It's a month to Easter.

    1045:

    I think a bigger deal will be the festivals in the days leading up to Ash Wednesday. Mardi Gras, Carnival, etc...

    Huge densely packed street crowds in various states of intoxication around the world.

    1046: 1018 - Well, you started it! The North American loading gauge is even wider than the European one. 1025 - Counterpoint. An etymologist was visiting the Outer Hebrides and asked a local 'Is there any word in Gaelic that is equivalent to the Spanish "manana", meaning "Tomorrow"?' The Gael paused and thought, then replied "No. I can not think of any word in the Gaelic which would convey that precise sense of urgency." 1026 - Well, if they're being sent to my account, the spam filters are eating them. 1045 - And speaking of "eating things" the only way I "keep Easter" involves the consumption of chocolate eggs!

    Also, "Fat Tuesday" is over by now. (25th February)

    1047:

    Ash Wednesday is past for 2020, and it's nearly a year to it in 2021. It's Northern Ireland that I was referring to, and how 'they' handle Easter this year is a political issue as much as an epidemiological one.

    1048:

    Re: 'The point is the richness of cephalapod experience and that it is distributed.'

    Agree. Really enjoyed that panel talk and have been looking for similar, ideally like a semester-long series of lectures. Just in case you happen to know of any.

    BTW - Got a security alert on my laptop when I tried to click that first link. Will be watching the below instead.

    Peter Godfrey Smith: "Other Minds: The Octopus, the Sea, and the Deep Origins..." | Talks at Google (2017 - not too long ago, probably not revised to the point of being obsolete yet)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iENXfnOobzw

    'Qualia' is the name that this neuroscientist gave the octopus; guessing he's aware of the 'name's' significance. :)

    Agree that the octopus has evolved considerable camo ability. Personally, I'm rather relieved that Qualia couldn't do camo for 'transparent glass with strong stage lights from one direction and complete darkness from the other' in the 40-60 minutes he/she was on stage. If you watched to the end, Dr. Grasso mentions the behavior/camo of a courting octopus with a rival.

    1049:

    Re: ' ... and if you imagine, even for a moment, that its policy is determined by "what is good for our students" you are severely in need of a wake-up call.'

    Unless it's changed dramatically within the past year, you're way off base. (Admin could be better, but for tough calls - they usually come through for their students, etc.)

    1050:

    Re: '... tested for Corvid-19'

    There's some raised eyebrow/concern about DT refusing to get tested for Corvid-19 despite having had a couple of documented exposures to people who've since tested positive. Denial, ego, or because Pence is also currently sidelined: fear of what Pelosi would find in his desk in the OO?

    1051:

    Whole different kettle of miscellaneous swimming things!

    And that's before we even start to think about what will happen if the crisis extends into the summer months with further bans on public gatherings and events.

    1052:

    Ash Wednesday is past for 2020, and it's nearly a year to it in 2021. It's Northern Ireland that I was referring to, and how 'they' handle Easter this year is a political issue as much as an epidemiological one.

    Yes I read the dates wrong. But even in the US Easter is one of two Sundays that the pews will be full to overflowing in most churches.

    1053:

    Sorry, made the mistake of assuming that an almost intelligible part of one of your posts was supposed to make sense. The drug of choice here in the real Banlieue (among retailers and consumers) is hash, not coke.

    1054:

    And that's before we even start to think about what will happen if the crisis extends into the summer months with further bans on public gatherings and events.

    Actually that's what the medical establishment wants. To flatten the infected curve and make it take longer. This keeps the critical care systems from getting overwhelmed.

    Everyone in a connected life will be exposed. Most likely this year. The issue is can the peak be flattened or not.

    Then will this turn into the flu vaccine issue. Where every year some international groups get to try and guess which variations to tune the vaccine to protect for.

    1055:

    Re: 'non-US resident MA/MSC / PHD students'

    You mentioned Jamaica specifically. Visited a couple of time some years ago (vacation) and not up on current events however am aware that they (like the rest of the Caribbean) rely on ships for most of their food, meds, etc.

    OTOH, Jamaica might be a helluva lot safer (and cheaper) than Boston for the next while esp. if Corona-19 transmission is effectively stopped at 26 Celsius.

    The Visa thing can get sorted out later.

    1056:

    And apparently, although he is known to have been at a party with a sufferer there are no plans to test BoZo. That said, he's probably one of the few people who could fail a diagnostic test!

    1057:
    • Just recently read that the UK Minister of Health Nadine Dorries has been diagnosed with COVID 19 and is self quarantined.

    • I work in a place where staffing is not optional (i.e. if we are not properly staffed people might die). Also, many immune compromised persons live or pass through here (Supportive housing/homeless shelter).

    • 2 of the 6 people scheduled to work tomorrow have called in with flu symptoms. Which means that the rest end up having to work more - for instance I'll be working double shifts, at likely cost to my own immune system. This does not bode well.

    1058:

    Just recently read that the UK Minister of Health Nadine Dorries has been diagnosed with COVID 19 and is self quarantined

    That;s correct. There are no plans to even test some of those at the same party (yes, that sense of party) like Alexander BoZo Falafel Johnson, presumably because he'd fail a virus test!

    1059:

    I'm well aware of this.

    The implications of this in Northern Ireland, where this policy intersects with the height of certain "cultural celebrations" which have typically taken a very dim view of being cancelled or restricted, become complex and difficult to predict (especially considering the most vocal and disruptive participants in these "cultural celebrations" have a high level of overlap with anti-intellectuals and the typical recruiting pool for anti-vaxxer types).

    Basically, the authorities will be telling a bunch of people they can't do what they want to do, whose typical response to such injunctions is to scream "FUCK YOU!" and then start setting fire to things.

    1060:

    "future double deck trains" ... Not compatible with existing lines.

    Yes, compatible with HS1 and TGV lines on the mainland.

    Bear in mind that the UK railway network is 190 years old, and is probably still going to be operational -- barring a collapse of technological civilization to pre-19th century levels -- in another 190 years, in some form. Presumably someone is engaging in forward planning. The UK's existing track network can be viewed as narrow gauge, FSVO "narrow"; it needs the same treatment Japan got in the 1960s, for the exact same reason, and you do that by building out a new track network however you can. And they're going for euro-compatible loading gauge because in the time frame they're planning for, Brexit is a flash in the pan.

    1061:

    Re: BoZo Johnson - testing

    He's in his mid-50s so not at especially high personal risk but if he is 'positive' and doesn't self-isolate he could do serious harm to MPs. Guessing that QE2's guard could stop him from entering Buckingham Palace unless he presents a doctor's note.

    What is the legal requirement for physical presence in the 'House' and ability to 'govern'/enact legislation?

    COVID-19 is looking more and more like a black swan.

    1062:

    Not to say that one of Bozo's first actions was to kick out the first Secretary of State in ages for whom the local politicians had any respect with what seems to be a party apparatchik.

    1063:

    PM's weekly briefings with the monarch can be handled with simple sanitary procedures -- he follows a set route to a reception room in the palace, she comes in from another direction wearing gloves: they shake hands, sit a couple of meters apart, and after he leaves a courtier sanitizes HM's gloves. BoJo probably wouldn't even notice.

    Now, if he were to cough in the royal presence, that might be construed as high treason ...!

    1064:

    Re: NI "cultural celebrations"

    Would come across as really, really, really and remarkably stupid considering how many countries representing a broad cross-section of different ethnicities, cultures, socio-econ-political systems and religions have already cautioned against or banned large gatherings.

    1065:

    Would come across as really, really, really and remarkably stupid

    Yes, well, that'd be normal for the more barking hatstand Unionists.

    1066:

    paws Surely you are not even HINTING that BoZo is a parasitic bundle of ego-driven dna only capable of living by sucking nutrition out of others!

    For our US "friends" ... DtP is referring ( @ 1059 ), principally to the 12th of July, the anniversery of the Battle of the Boyne. Lots of Lambeg Drums, very loud, very "religious"

    SFR & EC Ah, hadn't thought of that: - BoZo has been in contact with a known actual diseased person ( The revolting aforementioned Dorries ) I do hope Queenie tells him to fuck right off - "You're not bringing your bugs in here" I might wet myself laughing, if that happens, oh dear, what fun. Along the same lines, if DT gets it ( We can HOPE ) then Pence must, surely, become acting Pres (?) Vast amounbts of shit & derision interacting with the air-conditioning ......

    [ What happens if DT gets it & either dies, or is permanently incapacitated? Pence becomes sitting Pres & coming up to a bitterly contested election ... that could really be FUN ]

    Charlie @ 1063 I think not Brenda won't want BoZo in the same room, possibly even the same building - we can hope.

    1067:

    She has said she will continue to do her duty, and I would expect that to be included. One can hope that Bozo doesn't cause London Bridge to fall down.

    1068:

    Re: ' ... if he were to cough in the royal presence, that might be construed as high treason ...!'

    Yeah, that's the problem: it's pretty tough to control coughing when your lungs are being turned into 'ground glass opacities' one cell at a time.

    Consider from HRM's POV: on the one hand, she could demand his head, on the other hand, she's in her 90's. If she went, Charles would be up next but he's also in the at-risk age group and could succumb if Bozo kept showing up while positive. That would leave William in charge.

    How do you think someone who lost his mother at an early age because of rag-mag headline-chasing twits and then lost his grandparents and remaining parent because some self-important twit didn't abide by sound medical advice would react? Wm is probably the best liked Royal since his mum. How do you think the public would react on his behalf?

    1069:

    Quite. But they will probably also be goaded into that by the more insanely vicious 'republicans'. We shall see what Lewis is capable of, no doubt.

    1070:

    Yes, North American trains are in many cases bigger, but not relevant unless the UK suddenly finds itself needing a rail network designed for moving massive amounts of bulk freight.

    Even the US (through the FRA) has finally acknowledged that the US standards are serious overkill for passenger and as such passenger equipment meeting EU design standards can now be used in the US.

    1071: 1066 - Ironic number. But no; I was just implying an exceptional level of stoopid on BoZo's part. 1068 - Amongst the people I know Her Royal Highness the Princess Royal is the most popular of the Battenburgs!
    1072:

    That's the thing about a loading gauge; it's a maximum dynamic width/height for stock, but you don't have to build the largest possible stock within the loading gauge.

    1073:

    I initially read that as "Azrael Johnson"...

    1074:

    She could insist that the interaction takes place in one of those high security prison visit things, where there's a glass wall to make physical interaction impossible and a phone to talk through it. Who knows, there might even be something like that in the Palace basement already - Boris can't be the first diseased PM to cause a need for it.

    1075:

    IIRC, part of the problems have been requirements that all passenger trains can withstand a frontal collision with a heavy freight train, with only minor scratch damage (I'm exaggerating, but only somewhat).

    Only american passenger trains are overbuilt to that standard.

    1076:

    So, a newsletter email came round our office today from HR. We're a smallish (100 staff) IT company servicing schools. Current turnover ~£10mil, very successful growth.

    Any staff member with COVID-19 will be eligible for SSP from day 1. SSP == (Government) Statutory Sick Pay from welfare system, £94.25 per week.

    Some of our devs are in the 30k bracket, normally taking home £2k/m after tax - SSP would be a huge hit.

    Generous much ?

    1077:

    Well, "Alexander Johnson" is his actual first forename and surname, even if "BoZo Falafel" is political comment.

    1078:

    Meanwhile, in Panama, there's been a really unfortunate development. The first and only death was diagnosed posthumousy. And he was the principal of a high school and had had contact with more than 200 other teachers from the school and around the country before he displayed symptoms.

    https://www.laestrella.com.pa/nacional/200311/maestros-estudiantes-beckman-preocupados-contacto-director-fallecio-coronavirus [Google Translate] The magisterial leader of the San Miguelito area, Edy Pinto, reported on Wednesday that there are 66 teachers from Monsignor Francisco Beckman School under observation, after Panamanian Health Minister Rosario Turner confirmed that the death of the director of the educational center, Norato González, was related to Covid-19. Pinto, also a Beckman teacher - located in North Panama - said that Professor Norato spent about two weeks in contact with more than 200 educators from different areas of the country, while participating in the courses prior to the start of the school year.
    1079:

    FWIW, in the SF Bay Area many BART stations were build in places that weren't that useful at the time, but over time many of the useful stops became less useful as, e.g., shopping centers decayed, and other of the stops became more useful. It did take several decades for this to develop, but it happened.

    Note that I don't think the stops contributed to the decay of the shopping centers. I believe they were mainly dependent on auto traffic. But it sure didn't give them enough of a boost to save them.

    My guess is that people planning to carry heavy packages prefer an alternate transport, but that IS only a guess.

    1080:

    requirements that all passenger trains can withstand a frontal collision with a heavy freight train

    I'm sure Greg will correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the main cause of accidents involving express/high speed trains these days was derailment -- usually due to operator error or a mechanical defect with the train (e.g. the Hatfield crash, the German Eschede incident)?

    High speed trains shouldn't be operating on tracks that lack in-cab signaling, grade separation, and/or positive train control. So they shouldn't even be on the same tracks as heavy freight trains.

    (Yes, yes, I know the US railway rights-of-way situation is a nightmare of stupid and passenger trains do run on freight tracks -- but the requirement that high speed train sets should be able to survive rubbing shoulders with 10,000 tons of freight containers rumbling along at 45mph is bonkers. Like applying the Victorian requirement that steam carriages on the highway be preceded by a bloke on foot carrying a red flag to airliners.)

    1081:

    My understanding of current planning for such stops is that they encourage "white collar" office construction and mid to high rise apartments. But, as you seemed to say, NOT strip malls. Having a stop next to a larger mall (or under it) can be a good thing if the mall is a "survivor".

    In my 3 days last Sept in NYC we rode the subways a LOT[1] but rarely saw anyone with groceries. Or even more upscale bags. Mostly it was to get from "here to there" faster than on the street.

    [1] Battery to top of Central park and all points in between. I think Google Maps had us at 100 miles or more on the subways.

    1082:

    [beats head on wall] "Javacrucianism"? You really didn't get that? Did you read that without having your coffee/tea before reading?

    http://silverdragon.5-cent.us/kate/javacrucianism.html

    1083:

    [quote]The whole of fucking christianity { & islam & judaism & ... } Is a bloody great fake, or hadn't you noticed?[/quote]

    That's too simplistic an analysis. I much prefer C.G. Jung's analysis of religion. Not a fake, but certainly not a history or a series of objectively verifiable facts, or even episodes. More an extended metaphor for something that cannot be fully made conscious.

    1084:

    Fascinating.

    As was the link, below the story, to where a doctoral student, on a pleasure trip to a museum at an obscure monestery on the edge of the Venetian lagoon (she was a student at a uni in Venice) recognized the shape of what was thought to be a medieval weapon... and, in fact, is the oldest weapon (idiots - it's not a sword, not even a short sword, it's a large dagger, cf "Bowie knife"), 5000 years old, arsenical copper, from before they knew how to make bronze.

    https://www.livescience.com/ancient-anatolian-sword-in-venetian-monastery.html

    1085:

    Olive oil - 2l in a tin? Really? I go to middle eastern importers, and buy it in 4l tins or glass jugs all the time (well, once every 8 mos. or so), it's up to about $24/jug. Mostly from the middle east, rather than Italy, just as good: first press/cold press.

    1086:

    He doesn't dare stop campaigning. Esp. if he's diagnosed with covid-19, his base will freak out, and he will go down.

    1087:

    Re: 'HRH the Princess Royal is the most popular of the Battenburgs!'

    Okay - so you would have a grieving daughter & sister (Anne) consoling her grieving nephew (Wm). Between the two of them, you could generate quite the public outrage against self-important political twats.

    BTW - I'm guessing relative popularity of the British royal family based on grocery store check-out mag stand front pages. Harry's appeared more often than Wm over the past year - marriage and family rift - so not entirely favorable but even so Harry would probably also garner public sympathy for the same reasons as Wm. Plus, he'd also generate sympathy among military vets because of the Invictus Games.

    The more I look at this, the more it seems that the prudent course of action for Bozo is to avoid infecting/harming HRM QE2.

    1088:

    Sorry, I thought that the Orange Fool, and the shaggy blond Fool, were both like the "O/S" from Redmond: a virus themselves.

    1089:

    tarkeel @ 1037: So, things took a turn for the worse here yesterday. 160ish new cases, with several people being hospitalized for COVID (as opposed to with). We also have the first cases where the infection vector has not been possible to trace, meaning there's unknown community infection taking place. As a result we've seen harsher measures on large gatherings, but still nobody wants to take on quaranitining travelers from the US.

    Where is here?

    1090:

    This is not a situation where logic or common sense applies.

    Picture a culture that has spent over 300 years establishing it's "victim" narrative, even to the point where when they unambiguously held all the levers of power and oppressed the other would-be dominant culture with impunity they still considered themselves to be under siege and put upon; picture how this culture reacts to any attempts to curtail it's "cultural celebrations".

    This is exactly the same as trying to understand how US-icans can still oppose gun control in any form when looking at a classroom of dead children.

    Sanity, it is not.

    1091:

    David L @ 1045: I think a bigger deal will be the festivals in the days leading up to Ash Wednesday. Mardi Gras, Carnival, etc...

    Huge densely packed street crowds in various states of intoxication around the world.

    I thought Mardi Gras was last month? I remember a couple of news items about intoxicated celebrants getting too close to the floats during the parades and falling under the wheels.

    1092:

    [quote]Then will this turn into the flu vaccine issue. Where every year some international groups get to try and guess which variations to tune the vaccine to protect for.[/quote]

    That's a serious possibility, but by no means a certainty. It really depends on what the critical sections of the virus are (which it can't alter without ceasing to work) and what the vaccine latches onto. Flu has well hidden critical sections, but that's not the only way things get organized. One vaccine worked for smallpox until it was eliminated. Polio didn't have many variants. Etc.

    If we're lucky then one vaccine will enable COVID-19 to be eradicated. OTOH, there are reports that people can catch the disease more than once, so it may well be worse than the flu in that sense. There may already be multiple strains (as viewed by the immune system) in circulation, and it could even be that catching one wipes out your immunity to the other.

    Then there's the chickenpox problem. If, as reported possible, it can hide in the CNS (and other "low accessibility" portions of the body) after you recover, then it could possibly re-emerge later...possibly with different symptoms.

    So we don't yet know. This could be a "one bad year" kind of thing, or it could become chronic.

    1093:

    Yes! Yes! Off with his head!

    1094:

    Elderly Cynic @ 1067: She has said she will continue to do her duty, and I would expect that to be included. One can hope that Bozo doesn't cause London Bridge to fall down.

    Seems to me she could just as well do her duty with him confined to a full bio-hazard containment suit while he's in her presence.

    What about him doing HIS duty? If he's contagious and as oblivious as he sounds, he's not just a threat to her, but to the Prince of Wales as well.

    All the turmoil in the Royal Family right now, y'all might even end up with King Andrew.

    1095:

    I thought Mardi Gras was last month?

    Someone already chastised me for that. As you might guess Lent and associated things were an unknown to my circles growing up.

    1096:

    Kuwait seems to be shutting down everything. Airport and all.

    https://onemileatatime.com/kuwait-airport-closing/

    1098:

    "Yes, compatible with HS1 and TGV lines on the mainland."

    To which it doesn't connect (ffs). I think you do them too much credit wrt "forward planning". The fiasco over that aspect does look slightly less ridiculous if you consider that certain parties might have had a hidden agenda of "leave the EU" that could not be mentioned at that time.

    "The UK's existing track network can be viewed as narrow gauge, FSVO "narrow""

    I like "the only country that runs narrow gauge trains on standard gauge track".

    But this isn't a big deal for passenger operations, whereas being an integrated network is. Having a separate chunk of it where the trains are just too bloody big to fit on the other bits and long-distance journeys mean kicking everyone out to get into a smaller one half way through causes epic fuck-ups and forces the anomalous actor to give in and conform to the standard eventually; BTDT.

    Where it is a big deal is in freight operations, and this has been noticeable at least since shipping containers came in and we had to do a bunch of research to figure out how to build wagons low enough to carry them without rogering the track, instead of just plonking them on what we had already. And it continues to put the kybosh on any idea of using rail freight to transport anything more tricky than stuff that comes in giant gigagram-sized amorphous piles/puddles. What we need is a big enough loading gauge that you can simply drive a standard full size artic onto the back of a rail wagon and off again at the other end, instead of having it trog from one end of the country to the other up the M6.

    The model of a more-or-less separate network carrying incompatibly large vehicles between a small number of widely-separated nodes in extra-urban areas is a fine match to how the freight network operates, but is pretty much the exact opposite of a match for passenger operations. Yet we're proposing to build a freight-pattern network, on a route which is quite a lot better for serving various existing inland freight hubs than the places it claims to serve, but positively avoids serving them, avoids having a connection to continental destinations, doesn't go near any ports either, is intended not for freight but for passenger use, and has an alignment grossly overspecified for passenger use let alone for freight. And which doesn't go to Scotland at all, but instead intends to provide through services by debouching onto standard tracks before it gets half way there, so has to run standard outline trains in any case. It's no good as a passenger network because it's a freight design, it's no good as a freight network because it's deliberately trying not to be, and it wastes a tremendous amount of money on one particular aspect of the specification which isn't needed for either use.

    If we're going to build an outsize-gauge network that connects a handful of extra-urban destinations then it should connect places like Hams Hall and Tinsley with places like the Channel Tunnel and Southampton and Felixstowe docks, and go all the way north at least as far as Glasgow and Edinburgh. If we're going to build tracks to increase passenger capacity then they need to follow the same routes, go to the same stations, and run compatible stock, with any "new" routes being nearly all simply reopenings of old routes whose closure forces you to go the long way round and/or leaves significant destinations unserved. In neither case do the speeds need to be any higher than current maxima for the sake of a dick-waving contest with countries whose more extensive geography gives them some actual use for it.

    1099:

    Just dropping by to note that I am feeling less like a paranoid fool for stocking up on food in light of the continuing lies and obstructionism coming from the US “administration”. I’m just here in Socal waiting for the other shoe to drop. Not a good feeling, although my husband and I will be fine—we can hunker down for a while. The country feels like it’s about to go over the edge of a cliff. Then what? Martial law? Postpone the election? I hope not. At least individual states and cities are stepping up. And individual citizens. I hope this will be enough to flatten the curve a bit. It’s frustrating. The government is actively making this so much worse than it needs to be. Ugh. Sorry if this is a bit negative, I’m gonna go self-medicate with some chocolate now (fair trade, locally manufactured, scrumptious).

    1100:

    Peter Godfrey Smith: "Other Minds: The Octopus, the Sea, and the Deep Origins..." I need to prep for something today, but the first few minutes of that presentation video (1.5x) look promising; thanks.

    1101:

    Not really the same deal; the BART is more analogous to the London Underground, providing short-distance transport within a conurbation between different parts of it (with a suitable overall scale factor applied). So naturally the shifting of importance between areas within the conurbation is significant.

    The British network we're discussing is providing connections between separate cities, so it's the city as a whole that counts, and differences between different bits of it get averaged out. Cities tend to be pretty permanent :)

    Typically cities have one station, its usefulness being inversely proportional to its distance from the town centre, which in turn depends to a large extent on when it was built in relation to how long it took the Victorians to figure out that not having the station in the town centre sucks. A few cities (not necessarily big ones) have two, which is usually a pain in the arse because they serve a different subset of destinations, and there's often a desire, sometimes realised, to rejigger the tracks so that the better sited station can handle all destinations and get rid of the less useful one. Often this situation is the result of one lot of Victorians building their line through the city and grabbing the best site for a station, then another lot come along building a line from somewhere else and wanting to share the station, the first lot tell them to fuck off, and they end up having to build their own somewhere crappy, so the town ends up forever handicapped compared to similar towns that have all their trains coming to the same place.

    Very few towns have any significant subsidiary services connecting the main station to less important areas, only a handful of the very largest, and only London is really big enough to start being properly thorough. A lot of the reason London got started with its local network is dumb-arsed Victorian planners refusing to let the railways in, so it ended up with all the major lines terminating out at the edge of the demilitarised zone and needing a subsidiary network to connect all the separate termini with the actual city. Even at the time there were people saying what a good idea it would be to bring all the main lines in to one great big station in the middle, but unfortunately they never did.

    1102:

    A significant theme of the whole situation is that it shatters, in a very personal way, the illusion (based mainly on statistical anomaly) of humans being masters of the natural world such that it can't hurt us any more. Perhaps it is only to be expected that the US has especial difficulties relating to it.

    1103:

    OK. I don't have it.

    From swab to phone call about 48 hours. Which isn't too bad for early stages. Does need to get better. I was told to expect 4 or 5 days.

    Which means I likely had a variety of flu which wasn't in this years flu vaccination.

    Doc still told me to avoid people as long as I'm hacking up phlegm.

    1104:

    That makes no sense - I suspect the comms has been garbled. AFAIK the changes just make SSP available earlier to those who are on it. They dont allow employers to reduce their current contractual sick pay to SSP levels.

    So whats either happened is those 30k devs were too "stupid" to make sure full sick pay was part of their contract and they are getting 94 odd quid more than they otherwise would have OR they are on their contractual SP terms and they will get whatever that says. I use stupid advisedly - I never checked in my last 4 jobs - I assumed it was a given in my line of work. (It was afaik).

    So either they are slightly up or net neutral from the SSP changes.

    If their employers are trying to pull as fast one I would recommend legal action but as it is this seems cockup rather than conspiracy.

    1106:

    It is pretty daft. Someone's gone "ooh, cars have crumple zones, they're great, trains ought to have them too". All very well but the amounts of energy are so vastly greater that if you drive one train into another you'll not end up any less dead just because the locomotive looks like a hamster.

    "Freight vs passenger" is a red herring. If anything it's better to hit a freight train because it doesn't have people in it. But in terms of what happens to your own train it doesn't really matter all that much what you hit. The basic process of a high speed railway crash is that the initial knock destabilises the train so that its kinetic energy is no longer safely contained, whereupon it fucks itself all over the scenery; whatever causes the destabilisation is basically a tiddly bit of a great deal of scenery, even if it is another train coming the other way on the same track.

    Modern carriages are already strong enough longitudinally that instead of all scrunching up into the carriage in front they ping off sideways and stay more or less the same shape. Recent famous high speed crashes have all shown that people are astonishingly likely to survive inside a flying carriage as long as it remains straight. Where they're not so well off is when it hits something like an electrification mast or a bridge support and breaks its back on it; tube buckling being what it is, there isn't really a fat lot you can do about that.

    1107:

    Have you seen that the Orange madman's people cut short testimony to Congress today, and he's demanding that "coronavirus deliberations" be classified?

    It's far worse than we may think in the US, and he's worried about his polling.

    1108:

    Yes, I saw that earlier and it made my blood run cold. I'm actually starting to think that the administration is purposely f*cking up testing to keep the numbers down, or maybe they just want a bunch of people to die--old people, poor people without insurance--you get the picture. This is right in line with what people like Bannon want--chaos and destruction. I wonder if the evangelicals think they won't catch it because they are special.

    I would like to see my state, California, undertake a very aggressive response because it's clear the feds are up to no good (the leadership, not the individual employees). Unfortunately with all the dithering and lying about the availability of tests, valuable time has been lost and we are looking at probably having to do massive amounts of social distancing to slow it down. The amount of collateral damage this will cause is insane. I was thinking this would be a Katrina for the whole country--now I'm thinking it will be a hybrid Katrina/Reichstag Fire. I'm actually becoming a bit scared. My husband has said he will happily help process tests if someone can get something going (he's a microbiologist) and I am thinking about how we can organize in my neighborhood to make sure people have food.

    It's going to be far worse than it needs to be, and that really annoys me. Regular pandemics are just part of our reality, and they can be planned for and the damage minimized.

    Okay, chocolate, working on art, and gardening here I come!

    1109:

    NCAA Basketball

    Well they did it.

    NCAA president Mark Emmert has announce that all Division I men's and women's basketball tournament games will be played in arenas without fans. According to Emmert's statement, only "essential staff and limited family" will be allowed to attend.

    For people inside the US this is huge. The NCAA basketball tournament is arguably as big inside the US as the World Cup is outside of it. 3 weeks of games spread accross the entire country. This will be costing the economy a billion or so bucks. Maybe more. Hotels, airlines, taxis, arena seats ($20 to $500 per butt), concessions, and on and on and on.

    I wonder if DT will say "Don't worry, be happy" or similar tonight.

    Sigh.

    1110:

    Re: 'OK. I don't have it.'

    Good to hear! Now to get over whatever flu bug you have. After that, it's just a generalized staying away from everything and pre-screening all visitors. Oy!

    1111:

    That's the imperial presidency in action. When he uses the royal we he really means it, to him the country is literally embodied in the emperor... himself.

    What's good for him is good for the country (by definition), and what's bad for him is bad for the country. Therefore imprisoning people on a cruise ship so he can avoid counting them as co(r)vid-19 cases in the USA is perfectly reasonable. And so on.

    Meanwhile things are not very bad at all in Australia. Why, the prime minister is still in the country. If there was a real problem he'd go on "holiday" somewhere (personally) safe, with his family. (the link is to a satirical site)

    1112:

    Here's a long list of what is being cancelled or closed to the public.

    https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/coronavirus-live-updates-ncaa-tournament-games-will-be-played-without-fans-warriors-to-play-in-empty-arena/live/

    Whether or not you care about sports, this is still a huge thing. And it will impact all kinds of lower end people. Parking attendants, concessions workers, etc... are all going to not work. These are often temp jobs and/or staff by volunteers from local school parent groups with the money going back to the student organizations to fund them. That now all goes away.

    1113:

    Reading between the lines, the friggin' Olympics are likely to be postponed into 2021.

    I am seeing rumours via Twitter that essential prerequisites for the COVID-19 test kit—reagents for PCR—are in short supply and/or running out, and this is now limiting supplies of the test; normally the supply chain starts in China, and that roaring noise you hear is global demand spiking by a couple of orders of magnitude (before the US got its orders in).

    1114:

    An interesting footnote for future epidemiologists: England and Scotland have separate national health services.

    In England, policy is being set by Number Ten, i.e. Dominic Cummings, who is allegedly applying his favourite accelerationist social/economic theories. Meanwhile, in Scotland Nicola Sturgeon is letting the chief medical officer lead on policy.

    It will be salutory to compare the outcomes between two systems that were a single integrated system until about 20 years ago, then gradually diverged (especially since 2010) as one became an ideological plaything.

    1115:

    Yes. That article I linked to has some quotes that don't make sense to me (or likely anyone else not following closely) but which seem to imply that the agreements about hosting the Olympics don't really address issues like this.

    1116:

    and he's demanding that "coronavirus deliberations" be classified?

    Apparently this is not new but has been true since January.

    Public Relations is not News.

    Sigh.

    1117:

    "coronavirus deliberations" be classified Just to make it clear, this means that those without a security clearance, including many (perhaps most) relevant experts, cannot attend. (This is insane. And/Or worse.)

    1118:

    Everybody following Charlie @ 1080 He is correct _ BUT the US' safety record, compared to Europe or the UK (who, with the Swiss are the best) is absolutely lousy. Because the US rail system is freight-oriented they don't seem to fucking care, with expensive results And, yes, with modern signalling & control systems, actual physical track failure is the dangerous one, these days.

    whitroth Yes ... but ... Sainsbug's OliveOyl own-label is suprisingly good stuff

    DtP @ 1090 THANK YOU - I should have, but didn't spot the commonality between NI extremism & the NRA's loonies ----- but they are very, horribly similar are they not? Encased in their own delusions to the point of incommunicability

    Pigeon The extreme brexshiteers regard HS2 as a Euro-PLOT to physically connect us to & "make us subservient to" the EU via steel rails - ignoring the GAP between Euston & KGXStP - idiots.

    colourtheortytoo Martial law? Postpone the election? Yes, wouldn't DT & even more Pence, LURVE that as a get-out? Is that more likely than, say the Ultra-right's ( ALex Jones ) fantasies about a "Deep State" coup? I would say - yes ... but, what do I know? Self-medication with chocolate is a really good idea! I see that you, too, regard healthy veg via gardening/allotment a useful thing to do & have.

    @ 1108 I'm thinking it will be a hybrid Katrina/Reichstag Fire. Be very scared

    whitroth @ 1107 & 1117 THAT is criminally, jailably insane - except he will (probably) get away with it.

    1119:

    Correction; if we are to believe the (new) wife of Stephen Miller,

    VP press sec Katie Miller tells CNN WH Coronavirus meetings are not being made "classified." Miller said the meetings are held in Situation Room. But the meetings themselves are not "classified."

    — Jim Acosta (@Acosta) March 11, 2020

    (I wasn't sure about that (the wife of Miller part) but wikipedia[1] says it's true. :-)

    [1] Been watching edits(some might call them vandalism related to India and Islam) of the wikipedia Pogrom article.

    1120:

    Actually, the inherent problem was that the FRA (Federal Railroad Administration, the government dept. that set standards) was stuck in the past (think 1950s car design, pre-crumple zones).

    So North American stuff had to be designed to withstand collisions with no crumpling at all which, while sort of good for the railcar wasn't so great for the humans being tossed around inside said railcar.

    So the FRA required passenger equipment to have a buff strength of 800,000 lbs (compared to 450,000 lbs in Europe) which of course meant heavier equipment (and failures - Nippon Sharyo had a contract for passenger cars with Calidot(*) and their prototype car failed the buff strength test - for whatever reason they couldn't fix the design and eventually Siemens was brought in to fulfill the contract).

    The weight resulting from the FRA requirments is one of the reasons Amtrak's Accela had problems - simply is a lot of weight to be moving around at high speeds and less than ideal.

      • Calidot - acronym for a group of States that joined together to procure passenger equipment that would be used on trains operated on their behalf by Amtrak - states included California, Illinois, Michigan and Missouri.
    1122:

    Actually, it is a big deal for passenger operations.

    Much of the UK network is at capacity, and there are no easy ways to increase capacity in a large part because of the "narrow gauge trains on standard gauge track"

    It means double deck trains are not an option, and when more trains and longer trains are also not viable you reach the point where new lines are the only choice - good luck doing that south-east of London.

    Hence the reason to future proof HS2 by building it to a better standard. This means from the start the trains will be longer (hence more capacity), and as previously mentioned in the future can be double-decked when additional capacity is needed. Otherwise known as forward thinking.

    And I don't know where you get the idea people will need to transfer - even though you are correct that the EU standard trains can't go on the classic network, the reverse isn't true. Thus there will be "classic-compatible" trains ordered that will say run from Scotland on the north end of the WCML and then join HS2 for the final bit to London - hence the reason the HS2 network has multiple points where it connects to the existing UK network.

    As for the idea of driving a truck onto a rail wagon, that is so 50+ years ago. It is horrendously slow and inefficient and is seldom used anymore even in North America where it fits with lots of room to spare.

    Much faster and more efficient to simply use containers, which can not only be used for shipping from China but can also be used for shipping within the UK.

    1123:

    The train line I take to work is 161 years old. Service was first interrupted by the Franco-Prussian war. All the trains are double decker.

    (Bastille - La Varenne, opened 22 September 1859, integrated into RER-A in 1969).

    1124:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/12/mayhem-looms-just-around-the-corner-diary-from-the-frontline-of-the-coronavirus-health-crisis

    This is far beyond just a medical problem. This is a full-scale civil defence emergency. Western Australia and the Northern Territory have now released their pandemic plans, and yet we on the frontline are seeing no overall strategic thinking, little understanding of the need to physically segregate Covid-19-positive patients, and little understanding of the implications of our remoteness and the need to isolate vulnerable Aboriginal communities to keep the disease out.

    It's not that we can't keep the disease out, it's that we have decided not to. Sure, we can't keep it out forever but we could probably have delayed it and that's what matters for a pandemic.

    Not that it matters any more at a national level, the time to cut off non-essential international travel was weeks ago. Now we're left with "it's the economy stupid" approach, where the unlucky die and in all likelihood the economy turns out to need people after all. But at least important people still get to reach out and touch those they care about, whether that be icehawk rubbing his clients or Trump attending campaign rallies.

    1125:

    the main cause of accidents involving express/high speed trains these days [is] derailment
    Which is why you want the admittedly more expensive and less flexible French TGV stuff rather than the cheaper Siemens ICE based technology.

    1126:

    And it may have begun in Italy - twitter thread claiming to have translated Italian document from the Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care on how to choose who to treat

    https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1237731864233807872

    1127:

    That seems like standard triage, albeit the disaster version rather than the more common managed-demand version. We're going to see more disaster triage as more countries are overwhelmed.

    I'm still shocked that so many people are in at my workplace today, albeit management is still in the "starting to talk about preparing for a future pandemic" rather than anything useful.

    1128:

    I forget if I've recommended this on this forum before - I recommend it a lot:

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are? by Frans de Waal (Author)

    As a book on animal intelligence (and what we mean by intelligence anyway) it is very good.

    1129:

    So far I've had terrible luck growing vegetables in my garden. They are mostly devoured by caterpillars just when they're getting good. I'm trying to come up with a screen or covering for this season. I have been able to get the occasional volunteer tomato plant to do well, and I am going to try again with basil. So far rosemary has been my biggest success. I've tried all the gentle pesticides but don't want to harm the birds or beneficial bugs, so this year I will try netting! In the meantime, we get a farm box every week that has really nice local produce.

    1130:

    Re: 'Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?'

    Thanks! This looks interesting. Will check if de Waal has given any talks/has any videos on YT.

    1131:

    I don’t think Trump or those who report to him are thinking any further than tomorrow’s poll numbers.

    1132:

    Re: 'Soap'

    DQT-4: 'Soap' as in the old-fashioned fat-based formulations?

    Reason I ask is because over 30 years ago the major 3 personal care products manufacturers in North America [P&G, C-P, LB] started switching their 'bath bars' from old fashioned formulas (e.g., Camay) to new detergent based formulas (e.g., Zest). I'm aware that detergents also break fat bonds but have no idea whether how they break these bonds is important wrt their efficacy in washing viruses off.

    'Soap contains fat-like substances knowns as amphiphiles' ... aware of saponification, but not this.

    1133:

    Yeah, they are. They're just arguing about details.

    https://www.weforum.org/about/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab

    Despite the act, Trump isn't quite as dumb as you imagine: he managed to deal with the mob and not get killed[-1] and also did how many bankruptcy deals and remade NYC and knew all the players so he's more than a little feral and cunning.

    He's also on TeeVeeeee, he knows how to play a role.

    Ok, here's a thought experiment: Ms Doriss, Junior Health Secretary, gets COVID19 and not only spreads it to her constituents but the entire cabinet. Repercussions? Zero.

    Absolutely nothing barring "don't be mean online :( :("

    Why?

    MRI her cortex.

    Ms Bestey Private Schooling, never run an education policy get to run the entire system of a global superpower. Totally burns it up, badly, isn't even on the TeeVee when kids can't be sent home / quarentinneed 'cause they can't afford to miss a meal.

    Why?

    MRI her cortex.

    Now go look up who is using the terms "39%" + "madness" for the UK and spot this gem[0]:

    https://twitter.com/Annrhefn/status/1237421432596029441

    Or did you miss the massive switch from screaming "BUT HE IS AN ANTIEIMESMTIE" to "Meh, who cares" recently?

    Your Teeeeveeee is not your friend, edition #34543657

    ~

    Oh, and Disney ain't stopping those rides, so good luck.

    ~

    And, we're sorry to inform you but: Gretta really is part of that debate/milieu. Just the nice part. The part that unfortunately is a bit Malthusian, but them's the breaks.

    Don't tempt us - we might succumb :-)

    You already did. Quite literally: threaten 'the hole' when you know a pandemic is going to create massive jail riots and so on to force a response? Cold. Expected and we can spot you a mile off, but cold.

    "Break it"

    But you demanded a [human / market scale] response, so got one.

    Check out the most recent www.oglaf.com -- quite nice and accurate.

    Nudibranches. We're not a giant penis looking to spawn, we're camouflaging ourselves[1].

    Want some reality?

    https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1237645152346353664

    They. Are. Going. To. Kill. The. Ones. Who. Cannot. Stomach. Slavery. This. Is. Very. Obvious.[2]

    Tell you dream last night: keystone found, black aura surround.

    There's blatant meta-cognitive epistemological cheating going on, with entire ranges of Minds with info they cannot possibly possess running around.

    Why?

    Look into the Pope and Italy and do some MRI scans.

    You won't. But you should have.

    [-1] When like everyone got whacked who was even a bit iffy back when they did the PR clean on late 80s NYC.

    [0] The slippage here is only noticeable if you can smell certain things a mile off.

    [1] You can tell no-one else has ever read the entirety of the Dune series, and miss the point of book six.

    [2] There's more ways than one to kill such things. Trust me, big field of research out there.

    1134:

    You kinda missed the point.

    You can't get that kind of info from extremely poor ecosystems, let alone tanks/cages or if the species is extinct. Doesn't work like that.

    Sadly, many monkeys died because you're fucking psychotic and stupid.

    Hot Take: why biomimicry is a bad investment for 10, Alex - it won't be there when you fucking get around to re-discovering it VC bro-style.

    Anarcho-Primitivism in the UK got nuked in the 1980's by some nasty MI5 spoiler people and various batshittery but it wasn't always Fasch. Try digging up the early pre-spoiler stuff, it's quite useful. Now? Traaaash, but they always do that to interesting ideas.

    This is why the entire "EcoFascim" is so hilarious: anyone who knows reality knows how they did it, even CAT and stuff got hit.

    Or pipebombs via the FBI in the USA. Same deal.

    You're living in the ashes already with it being presented as new.

    ~

    Do some MRI scans.

    grep "It's in the water"

    And so on.

    You won't, but you should.

    ~

    Old Joe Malarky Biden, shootin, tootin, 2020 Primary front runner, looking like his brain ain't there[1] is the one they're plumping for. Nice and aggro, John Wayne style.

    Why?

    Do an MRI.

    Oh, and spoiler: the radio and phone and computer ain't your friends either.

    [1] Two surgeries later.

    [2] The 39% slippage comes in a new exciting Westminster poll giving the Tories 50% support! Why? Didn't think we were having an election for 5 years or so. Comments, do a trace on the ID and location etc. If you can be arsed.

    1135:

    "Just to make it clear, this means that those without a security clearance, including many (perhaps most) relevant experts, cannot attend. "

    The majority of US citizen experts are probably locked out. The minority with clearances are likely moving from instant communication to delays of days/weeks/months.

    All non-US citizens in the USA are locked out. All foreigners are locked out.

    And I would be surprised if China doesn't tit-for-tat us.

    1136:

    Note - US travel ban for people coming from Europe. Europe does not include the UK, I guess to the anti-viral nature of the British Stiff Upper Lip.

    1137:

    https://twitter.com/rantyben/status/1237639381092954114

    While you're having discussions about the 'Fourth Revolution' and what to do with the "useless eaters"[1], there's another discussion going on.

    What type of thing can only stomach Minds that have such things missing running the world and is dead-set on erasing entire biospheres.

    It's not a friend of ours, to be sure.

    [1] Come the fuck on. Check Nigeria out atm, it's getting cratered. Or IL people and 'witches and wizards' in other countries. Or CN and Djubbiti.

    1138:

    Oh, and for Dave the Proc and so forth (nice trans peeps and LGBT+ etc).

    The jokes and so on and what you project on us as our evil / lapsed morality / cerebral decline, whelp:

    "They find it funny"

    That's from a Human Mouth, 100% cold stone using information that has been double-bound to be unknowable who just finished joyfully celebrating a suicide. Protected class, employed, loved Brexit, singing heavily as [redacted] was doing flip-turns in his cortex.

    camouflage.

    You're gonna need it.

    There's shit you don't want to know.

    1139:

    Re: Frans de Waal - 'Alpha male'

    Thought the name was familiar.

    De Waal coined the term 'alpha male' which apparently continues to be mis-used as per the TedTalk below. Wasn't familiar with his work on empathy in animals. Very interesting - thanks again!

    'The surprising science of alpha males | Frans de Waal'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPsSKKL8N0s

    1140:

    Because the travel ban has nothing to do with Covid-19 as it is already in the US and spreading - NBA shutdown for at least 2 weeks as at least one player is infected, usher that worked at 2 Broadway theatres infected, etc.

    So if the virus is already in the US and spreading, the ban does nothing - but what it does do is publicly punish the EU for standing up to Trump in a way that Trump can get away with.

    As for the UK, perhaps maybe ask if Boris has given up anything recently, or will now be expected to in exchange for the nice treatment.

    Meanwhile Tom Hanks, filming a movie in Australia, has confirmed both he and his wife have Covid-19.

    1141:

    Given that US Stock futures plunged 1,000 points and triggered the safety breaker after Trump's grand pronouncement I don't think Trump will be happy.

    1142:

    Few questions: do you have a fenced-in garden, or just a section of yard? Ours is the latter - had to, freakin' rabbbbbbits. About to rebuild, actually - for one, the wond's 10 yrs old, for another, Ellen wants to be able to work it with a wheeled cart, so I'll have to raise the beds, with an aisle in the middle.

    Second - you could consider whatitcalled fabric.

    Third: pennyroyal.

    1143:

    Sorry, She of the many names, the Orange idiot is that dumb.

    Get killed by the mob? Why - he's a useful idiot, happy to launder their money left, right, up and down. He didn't interfere with their games, he plays for them.

    The question is if/how connected the mob is to Russia.

    1144:

    Off topic: about that story I was working on? Yeah, well... I think I said about a week and a half ago, I was looking for a new story to write... and wrote one in about two days. Then, the horror that I wrote over the weekend, which is a sequel to the first. To get the taste of that out of my mouth after it was finished, I was trying to think of how to get a sequel, and whether I could finish the transition to a world government in one or two stories.

    Finished the third one this morning. I've got all three, they're done, I'm polishing, and they're very satisfying.

    Now, a market... dunno, maybe F&SF, I think it's too political, though I've no idea if it's too dark for Clarkesworld.

    1145:

    Dunno about the soap formulation, but a bacteriologist I used to know reckoned the desquamation gained from drying your hands on a towel (cloth or paper) was as important as any bacteriocidal effect of the soap.

    1146:

    Which of course makes the all too common "let's use air to blow all the water and stuff from your washed hands to the air in the toilet" kind of dryers not that useful, compared to towels. In public toilets, that is.

    (Or, as a joke pic caption says on a picture of a Dyson hand dryed, "Messiest urinal ever.")

    1147:

    colourtheorytoo @ 1129 Ah - I have an allotment, though I raise a lot of seedlings in the greenhouse attached to my home. Which means, that when plants are put out from seedlings, they are usually that bit larger & harder for the SLUGS to eat. I don't use any proprietry pesticides - if I get a bad infestation of green or black "fly" I find that dilute washing-up liquid does the trick. For some, especially vulnerabler samll plants ( Brussels Sprouts, other brassicas & Lettuce, I DO use the proprietory slug-pellets. All peas & some beans are sown direct, but I soak before planting & in the case of the peas, put "green-wovenmesh" over them until they sprout. WHat USDA hardiness zone are you in? The equivalent here is 8, maybe 9 in sheltered positions. { Also whitroth - not Rabbits, but mice will dig up & eat peas - hence my covering precautions & we have monster eat-evrything slugs & once the plants have grown, effing bloody Pigeons. However, our local friendly foxes will eat the pigeons & the mice when they get a chance - though you have to put grids over planted bulbils - like onions or leeks - for the first few weeks after planting }

    Various on DT's travel ban OBVIOUSLY political, with zero actual health-related content. That is going to play well in the real world, isn't it? And as people have commented, be zero use in controlling it inside the USA

    whitroth @ 1143 Thank you - I didn't dare say that. She also is all too clearly "Not even wrong" about how UK politics & guvmint works given the remarks about the mad Nadine.

    1148:

    @JBS #1089: My apologies; my earlier post made it clear that here is Norrway, but I forgot to include it in my follow-up.

    Extra bonus points for having the first confirmed infection on an offshore rig.

    1149:

    IMHO The Donald has just guaranteed a world-wide recession, if not a slump. The "good" side of that is that it should trash his re-election prospects completely (?)

    1150:

    No, the UK is NOT equivalent to USDA, and is even less so for fruit and vegetables. The reason is explained here:

    http://www.u-r-g.co.uk/faqclimate.htm

    1151: 1101 - London, Glasgow, Clydebank, Dumbarton. Just a few places that have multiple main-line stations, and indeed may have main-line terminii. 1106 - "We're talking about a missile the size of the Chrysler Building". Yes? 1108 - "I wonder if the evangelicals think they won't catch it because they are special." Well, I think they are "special" all right, but I do not think I mean the same thing as they mean! 1122 - Isn't this just a variation on the "loading gauge is a maximum size, not a mandated size" argument?
    1152:

    gordycole, @1104:

    no, comms are not garbled. I joined the company very early on, my employee number is 13. We are now > 100, and grown from <£1M turnover to about £10M in 5 years. I really needed a job at the time, and sickpay was very ad-hoc, along the lines of "we don't pay company sick, it's just SSP, because someone was taking the piss", and a blind eye was given to decent employees being off sick - it was just ignored for payroll, and no hardship ensued. We do have a private health care plan / insurance. My contract almost certainly will say sick == SSP only.

    It's weird - it is a really generous company in many other aspects - health benefits (dental / optical / hospital stays etc), good work's parties, plenty eat / drink events (we got a ticking off from HMRC because as a company we sere spending too much on entertainments for staff). but sick pay - no, it's really, really stingy.

    [[ html fix - mod ]]

    1153:

    EC Nonetheless, it's a useful guide & there are even web-pages explaining it: Like THIS - plenty of others available.

    And that site you linked to is grossly oversimplifying. From my p.o.v. all I'm worried about is the WInter minimum temperature that a plant can probably stand. Even there you have to be careful ... E.G. Dicksonia antartica the Tasmainian Tree Fern - long thought to be not frost-hardy .... oh dear, bollocks, it can take down to -10°C, provided ... it does not get wet snow or melting ice in the crown, which will kill it. Put a big plastic bag over it ( & stuff it's top with straw if enthusiastic ) & it will grow very well here - I've got one that's over 2 metres across ......

    1154:

    Urgh, lost content because of <

    Grown from < £1M to ~£10M in 5 years.

    Sick in the beginning was ad-hoc - rules say SSP only, but if you're not taking piss (as someone had previously, hence crap policy), they would just ignore SSP and pay you normally if you were off a few days.

    1155:

    I am afraid that it is YOU that are grossly over-simplifying. In particular, the USDA zones are completely irrelevant for growing vegetables, which was the context, where it is the summer temperatures and insolation that matters. Note that what we can grow is closer to what Alaska can than any other part of the USA - :-)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gardening_in_Alaska https://www.plantmaps.com/interactive-alaska-usda-plant-zone-hardiness-map.php

    1156:

    I like to Watch "A different bias" at Youtube, his predictions are usually correct (unfortunately) and he does his homework on details. -this is your government. "Wilful Brexit Ignorance from Michael Gove" https://bit.ly/2w3ODkL

    1157:

    ….and more. "Russian Report Revelations" https://bit.ly/2U48FU2

    I am beginning to lean towards Robespierre's viewpoints on how to deal with the upper class.

    1158:

    Re: 'drying your hands on a towel (cloth or paper)'

    Thanks! --- Agree about the towel drying provided towels are properly maintained and disposed.

    Did some googling trying to find more info about soap v. detergent and found the below 'Detergents and Soaps' authored by Chris Woodford. Good straight-forward explanations, mostly plain language with scientific terms defined as they are introduced. Although I'm still not sure which would be better wrt viruses, I'm leaning toward using the mass-produced detergent-based and putting away the french-milled bars.

    https://www.explainthatstuff.com/detergents.html

    1159:

    Dunno about the soap formulation, but a bacteriologist I used to know reckoned the desquamation gained from drying your hands on a towel (cloth or paper) was as important as any bacteriocidal effect of the soap.

    Reminder that Covid-19 is a coronavirus, not any kind of bacterium, and antibacterials and antibacterial approaches simply don't work on viruses. It'd be like using rat poison to go after seagulls.

    If anyone mentions "antibacterial" in the context of Covid-19 this is your red flag that they're talking bullshit.

    1160:

    Comparing Fox News’ Coverage of Ebola to Coverage of the Coronavirus https://www.patheos.com/blogs/dispatches/2020/03/12/comparing-fox-news-coverage-of-ebola-to-coverage-of-the-coronavirus/#disqus_thread

    Media Matters put together a video contrasting how Fox News covered the Ebola virus outbreak when Obama was president with how they’re covering Trump and the Coronavirus today.

    1162:

    It'd be like using rat poison to go after seagulls.

    Actually that would most likely work very well.

    A more apt example would be to use rat poison to weed your flower bed.

    1163:

    Because this blog is host to a myriad of non-Brits, please flag links to the Daily Mash or Newsthump as humor/satire. KTHX.

    1164:

    Yebbut, it's also rather misleading. I am no kind of a chemist, let alone an organic one, but my age-old memory of what I was taught conflicts with that. Yes, that's true about what we call detergents, but soaps are rather different.

    In particular, there are several mechanisms by which the soap (before or after it picks up the grease) reacts with common substances or otherwise drops out of solution, which is why it forms bath-rings and why it is less of an ecological problem. Also, I find that it doesn't stick to my (very dry) hands and leave them slippery the way that most detergents do.

    1165:

    @charlie I'm aware of the difference; a more apt phrasing on my part would have been biocidal... It's why I'm not getting anti-bac handwash and am keeping an eye out for hand sanitisers (now out of stock everywhere it seems).

    @DavidL Works when you've got squirrels burying nuts in your flowerbeds ;)

    1166:

    Yeah, well, Ebola was a disease that started among brown people in a shithole country™ (assuming some of my racist acquaintances are typical of the Tea Party types that Fox caters to); Covid is a disease spread among middle-class elderly white folks. And Trump is Republican, which is probably at least as important. (In the same way that economic downturns are unavoidable under Republicans, but the fault of the administration under Democrats.)

    Interesting comment on that link about the right-wing media calling Covid "Wuhan virus" because the official name is 'too politically correct'. Would it be too much to hope that they call the 1918 flu "Kansas flu"?

    1167:

    As the loading gauge increases, the costs of building (and eventually maintaining) increase.

    Larger tunnels, stronger bridges, heavier duty rail, etc. all have budget issues. So for the US freight railroads, their chosen loading gauge makes sense given the large volume of bulky freight they move large distances - it means fewer trains, and hence fewer crew.

    With no real need for that kind of capacity in the smaller UK, building to the US loading gauge would be a waste of money. The EU loading gauge offers all the benefits needed at a lower cost.

    1168:

    EC The summer temps also have USDA equivalents ( The US if often hotter ) this will become more relevant as GW accelerates. It works for me, successfully growing vegetables, anyway.

    Meanwhile, I'm listening to the radio news ..... DT's & the "R's" insanity is almost unbelievable - they are now balming "Europe" - which is an obvious political message & a fairly obvious lie. Yet ... a complete economic slump, 8 months before a major US election is surely amazingly self-harming (To the US) ... the harm it will do to everyone is riodiculous. Unless, of course, Putin WANTS an economic collapse - how would it benefit him?

    1169:

    The US if often hotter

    Oh totally. When looking at visiting London and checking the typical temps the London temps for August are around our April temps. For the south up through Ohio and such.

    As to DT, he seems to have an uncontrollable desire/demand to fight to win the news cycle every day instead of figuring out how to win it for the year. Or at least through November. This may be his biggest downfall.

    1170:

    DT's & the "R's" insanity is almost unbelievable - they are now balming "Europe" - which is an obvious political message & a fairly obvious lie.

    Trump has form for using flimsy excuses. Like his use of "national security" to justify tariffs against Canadian steel and aluminum.

    1171:

    Suspect the danger here is that if DT and those around him decide that events have overtaken them and that they can't get returned to office in November then settling petty grievances while the opportunity exists becomes an only goal.

    Alternatively, DT is delusional enough to think this will force the EU to agree to all his demands on trade, thus he can turn this into a win by defeating the evil EU.

    1172:

    The problem about general biocides is that they kill mammalian cells at least as readily as they kill many of the pathogens - that's a big problem with fungal infections. Yes, we can use many of them on our skin, but they are all bad news if they get on mucous membranes, corneas etc.

    It seems that strong enough bleach also kills the virus, as one would expect, so that's usable in the absence of 70% alcohol (which includes methylated spirits, of course).

    https://www.evansvanodine.co.uk/coronavirus-guidelines

    1173:

    No, it's even simpler than that:

    • Trump has golf courses and hotels with his name on them

    • A travel ban on the UK and Ireland will hurt his golf courses, so he left travel in place for the UK and Ireland while banning those nasty Europeans

    • His hotels are taking it in the neck like the rest of the hospitality biz, so he's denying there's a problem in hope people will continue to travel and give him all their money

    • Florida hotels in particular need revenue from spring break travel, so he's in adamant denial about the wisdom of telling teh oldz not to fly -- the CDC tried to warn people, Trump squashed them flat

    All you need to do is ask "what will profit Trump financially in the shortest possible term?" and you have your explanation for his behaviour.

    1174:

    Re: 'Unless, of course, Putin WANTS an economic collapse - how would it benefit him?'

    Putin will now have time for any long-term schemes to take their course.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-passes-bill-allowing-putin-to-stay-in-power-past-2024-1.4847913

    'Russian lawmakers on Wednesday rapidly rubber-stamped sweeping constitutional changes that could keep President Vladimir Putin in power until 2036.'

    If you recall, Xi (China) has also had his term increased indefinitely. So that's 2 out of 3 of the 20th century super-powers that have gone full-on dictatorship. The US (and from here - looks like the UK as well) appears fixated on the short-term.

    Also - Russia has been in isolation for a few years now. Thanks to COVID-19, the rest of the world is going to find out what such isolation feels like. Could go either way - blame-game or compassion-cooperation (we're sharing the same 'pale blue dot').

    1175:

    For many kinds of fruit and similar late-ripening vegetables, the insolation is equally important. Even grapes (extremely hardy!) are marginal as crops in the UK because our sunlight drops off a cliff in late summer. There are a LOT of things that we could start to grow only when people developed short-season varieties, and some of those we can only grow to partial ripeness (e.g. maize).

    1176:

    I am not sure that is all. I am also asking the question "what would do most to stroke his ego in the short term?"

    By imposing the ban as he has, he has fought back against the EU (which has been standing up to and criticising him) and dropped a bone to the UK (which has been properly docile and supportive).

    1177:

    Re: '...why it forms bath-rings'

    Thanks - your comments reflect my concerns about virus-relevant differences between soaps and detergents.

    Kinda hoping to avoid the 'bathtub rings' bit because it suggests a build-up of the very stuff that I want to make sure I get rid of.

    The BMT ward used 'liquid soap' but there were so many stringent procedures in place that ... I don't know.

    1178:

    I suspect that your distance not allowing you to see the details. (The news cycle thing has been true with him since long before he was President.)

    The things you say he has surpressed are actually getting out. The various SERIOUS heads have mostly figured out how to speak the truth without explicitly contradicting him.

    Old people have been told not to travel. Very explicitly from various agencies.

    Now I understand that money is a driver for him but to be honest after watching him for 30+ years, ego is even bigger. And trying to force the news into being PR.

    There's a lot below that national headlines that various state and local governments are getting right.

    And him not being able to control all of this all the time is royally pissing him off. Per sources inside the administration.

    Our biggest issue is lack of testing. Which makes our infection rates look smaller than reality.

    Add to this that his "fixes" for the day are making things worse for the total picture and he's loosing his temper a lot.

    1179:

    Because there are always opportunities in chaos.

    The mainstream political leaders of the last 40 years haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, with many of the policies they implemented (often at the behest of the wealthy) created the environment that has led to the resurrection of political ideas that many thought were killed off with WW2.

    This is just more opportunity to create the distrust amongst the voters being left behind financially, thus strengthening these "alternatives" that are friendlier to Putin.

    Because even if the current political leaders put aside their ideology and pour large amounts of money into the economies to deal with the immediate issue, much like the last bunch after 2008 they will pivot to austerity as soon as possible to "save the nation from crippling debt and Greece!!!", thus creating even more misery and opportunity - like perhaps the collapse of the EU this time if the Spanish, Italians, etc are forced to go through another around of punishment by their EU masters.

    1180: 1167 - Huh!!? I have at no point advocated using a larger loading gauge than needed; Simply pointed out that the loading gauge sets a limit on how large a rail vehicle's dynamic silhouette can be. 1169 - You mean like how 20s C in Florida in January was "very cold" according to the locals; meanwhile the Scottish group I was in were out by the hotel swimming pool in tee-shirts and shorts.
    1181:

    Replying to various reponses to my gardening travails:

    I am right in between zone 10a and 10b in San Diego County. The coldest I have ever seen it get is 39F/4C. In the summer it can get up to 104F/40C. Occasionally, if there is a hot wind from the desert, it can get up into the 90s in the winter. We used to have a banana tree that did really well, but had to take it out when we put a shade structure in the yard. So, our specific microclimate ia a little tricky. The garden area is about 15 feet square (1.5 square meters). It’s surrounded by a tall fence (for privacy and protection from the roaming drug addicts in the neighborhood). In addition, the soil is pretty much solid clay. I’ve identified an area that gets blasted by afternoon sun. I have to use pots and raised beds, which work well. But I think I need to commit to some kind of cloth or netting to keep out the caterpillars. I would like to grow herbs, tomatos, lettuce, and kale. Also a dwarf lime or lemon tree. Citrus does very well here, as do avocados, if you have well-draining soil—whch we definitely do not.

    1182:

    In a refreshing bit of news, at least one member of the U.S. government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic knows what she's doing.

    Of course, she's an Obama appointee, so she'll probably get fired once she contradicts El Cheeto Grande.

    1183:

    @1181: If you like them, you're probably in a good climate zone to grow green chiles, too.

    1184:

    meanwhile the Scottish group I was in were out by the hotel swimming pool in tee-shirts and shorts.

    Someone from Toronto was telling me how Myrtle Beach in South Carolina was a popular destination for the locals. And you could spot them as only the Canadians were in the water in April.

    1185:

    Things are moving rapidly now. During the day, Norway has taken several severe steps, first at local levels and lastly at national. For the next 14 days (with extensions expected), the following will be closed: * All education facilities, including kindergardens. * Cultural happenings. * Organized sports; in- and outdoor, including gyms, swimming pools, etc. * Restaurants of all kinds (including bars and nightclubs) where it's not possible to keep a 1-meter safe zone for every guest. * Barbershops, skincare, tatoo-/piercing-parlors, etc.

    Any travel outside the nordic countries after February 27th will result in self-quarantine.

    The Norwegian Institute of Public Health (FHI/NIPH) estimates the main epidemic will hit in May, and might last through to somewhere between August and October. Apologies for a local language link, but I think some of you might find it worth putting through auto translation.

    Disclaimer: I work for NIPH, but not with anything related to epidemics and contagion.

    1186:

    On preventative measures:

    https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/pdf Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces andtheir inactivation with biocidal agents G. Kampf(a), D. Todt(b), S. Pfaender(b), E. Steinmann(b) (a)University Medicine Greifswald, Institute for Hygiene and Environmental Medicine, Ferdinand-Sauerbruch-Straße, 17475 Greifswald, Germany (b)Department of Molecular and Medical Virology, Ruhr University Bochum, Universitaetsstrasse 50, 44801 Bochum, Germany Article history: Received 31 January 2020 Accepted 31 January 2020 Available online 6 February 2020 Summary Currently, the emergence of a novel human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has become a global health concern causing severe respiratory tract infections in humans. Human-to-human transmissions have been described with incubation times between 2-10 days, facilitating its spread via droplets, contaminated hands or surfaces. We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the persistence of human and veterinary coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces as well as inactivation strategies with biocidal agents used for chemical disinfection, e.g. in healthcare facilities. The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective. As no specific therapies are available for SARS-CoV-2, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreakand to control this novel infectious thread.
    1187:

    colourtheorytoo Oh shit - that's TINY for growing anything & your soil sounds revolting. I have a lime tree in my attached greenhouse. Lots of herbs in pots is proably your best bet This winter was the mildest on record - my spearate v small greehouse heater only came on once ... We have only had 6 to 10 nights when the outside temperature has really dropped below 0°C - as opposed to 2017/18 when we had two-trhee weeks of bitter Easterly winds & the temp struggling to reach 1 degree. I can grow chilis in said greenhouse ....

    I see Charlie has posted a new thread, so I will save anything about Corvid-19 for that ....

    1188:

    Yes, to pots, and not just herbs, as is done in southern Europe, north Africa and (I believe) Asia minor in enclosed courtyards. But mainly things grown for their leaves.

    1189:

    Note to self -- do not travel to Dubai.

    I live in a state where marijuana is legal, and in a town where it is particularly popular. It is more than likely that I have microscopic specs of marijuana on my shoes.

    1190:

    Who-ha! Ellen just told me a few minutes ago that some Brazilians, who were Mar-a-Lago for a meeting, tested positive.

    Biden and Sanders are cancelling railies... while the Orange Idiot is scheduling them. And the Dow is well under 22000....

    Down, down down, to that burnin' ring o' fahre....

    1191:

    But they are special. I just read today that most "protestants" (read "evangelicals") are pro-the Idiot.

    Of course they are. But then, they're not pro-American (read the Constitution this is a secular state), nor are they "Christian", unless you mean Christian satanists (have they ever forgiven anyone, or turned a cheek?)

    1192:

    Dunno what SSD is - but in the US, a lot of companies have merged "vacation" with "sick time", lumping it all together as "PTO" (paid time off).

    1193:

    I'm seriously at the point of starting to mean I want that back order of tumbrels, and the Humane Invention set up on the Mall.

    1194:

    But I looked at that link, and every word is true....

    1195:

    Barry @ 1136: Note - US travel ban for people coming from Europe. Europe does not include the UK, I guess to the anti-viral nature of the British Stiff Upper Lip.

    Countries with Trump resorts are exempt. I guess that's one way to pressure Putin to allow Trump Tower Moscow to go ahead.

    1196:

    Solid State Disk. But he said SSP, which is Statutory Sick Pay :-)

    1197:

    tarkeel @ 1148: @JBS #1089: My apologies; my earlier post made it clear that here is Norrway, but I forgot to include it in my follow-up.

    No apology necessary. I can't always remember where posters have said they're from, so I asked.

    1198:

    colortheorytoo @ 1181: Replying to various reponses to my gardening travails:

    I am right in between zone 10a and 10b in San Diego County. The coldest I have ever seen it get is 39F/4C. In the summer it can get up to 104F/40C. Occasionally, if there is a hot wind from the desert, it can get up into the 90s in the winter. We used to have a banana tree that did really well, but had to take it out when we put a shade structure in the yard. So, our specific microclimate ia a little tricky. The garden area is about 15 feet square (1.5 square meters). It’s surrounded by a tall fence (for privacy and protection from the roaming drug addicts in the neighborhood). In addition, the soil is pretty much solid clay. I’ve identified an area that gets blasted by afternoon sun. I have to use pots and raised beds, which work well. But I think I need to commit to some kind of cloth or netting to keep out the caterpillars. I would like to grow herbs, tomatos, lettuce, and kale. Also a dwarf lime or lemon tree. Citrus does very well here, as do avocados, if you have well-draining soil—whch we definitely do not.

    With enough compost you can turn that clay into soil.

    I'm in zone 7b. That's pretty much how the "soil" (after you got down an inch or so) was around here when I moved in, except in addition to red clay there were rocks, broken bricks & trash from a century or more ago. My neighborhood sits on top of what were once the fields of a fairly large plantation. Archeologists could probably have a fun field day in my back yard.

    I started composting my grass clippings & shredding up tree limbs about 40 years ago and sifting out the trash whenever I had to do any digging. You have to bag up yard waste to get the city to haul it off, and composting didn't require me to buy any bags.

    I'm thinking about a vegetable garden this year. Thirty-two square foot raised bed. (That's basically the same size as a sheet of plywood.) I've got a spot about that size in my front yard that's in full sun most of the day.

    1199:

    Ah. Thanks. Sorry, don't know SSP, only know SSD 9which I don't have...)

    1200:

    JBS @ 1197: I've been lurking here for so long that I have a good feeling of who the regulars here (like yourself) are, but keep forgetting that I haven't introduced myself to the same level. I also prefer to be polite :)

    1201:

    [quote]Note - US travel ban for people coming from Europe. Europe does not include the UK, I guess to the anti-viral nature of the British Stiff Upper Lip.[/quote]

    I think it has more to do with where Trump's golf courses and hotels are located.

    1202:

    Liquid soap isn't specific enough. There are any number of things that are called "liquid soap". A few decades ago I used a liquid soap called PhiSoHex. They took it off the market after they found it was causing brain lesions. (In rats I hope, but don't know.)

    1203:

    Province of Ontario, Canada has announced all government funded schools will be closed for an additional 2 weeks after next week's March Break.

    1204:

    India, Denmark and so on. April 15th seems a very common date.

    Oh, and the US Stock Market "lost" $11.5 trillion give or take a quick $1.5 trillion ($500/$1 tril on Friday) injection.

    Heard earlier:

    "Call Special Branch". "We found a loop-hole" "Psychosis please" [while buying bog roll late at night]

    Seriously: it's like child-care, these are not serious Minds.

    ~

    Apparently this is bad. Totally humiliating. "The Front fell off"[0]. Entire industries who got into shark-land financing instead of doing what they said they did on the tin discovering stock buy-backs aren't real[1].

    Not our area of expertise.

    Friday the 13th tomorrow, unlucky for some.

    "When the tide goes out, you get to see who was swimming naked"[2]

    You know that feeling when someone who you paid to give serious advice instead shafts you and tells you to blag it 'cause they're running a scam and tries to humiliate you and get you into trouble and you totes know what they're doing while they're trying to be clever but hey?

    Felt familiar.

    In our case, there's your answer.

    It'll buff out.

    [0] PM of Australia, smirking, big news down-under: https://twitter.com/MattDoran91/status/1237540325222043649

    [1] List of C level execs who quit in the last two years is now a hot property "to do" list, well done for flagging yourselves up as "in the know".

    [2] https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/nsw-minister-found-naked-and-disoriented-outside-sydney-unit/news-story/ce2b574ade8e3e62d80a3c3af49b6af0

    1205:

    Re You can tell no-one else has ever read the entirety of the Dune series, and miss the point of book six. I checked, and had not read it. (Book 6 ("Chapterhouse Dune"), being remedied. And noted. :-)

    1206:

    Yeah, oops. Sorry about that Dirk - hopefully you've not funded another X survival places or anything silly.

    That'd be illegal if we weren't totally bullshitting you all the time. Or we claimed any expertise in the area. Or knew that the fuck a "Stock Market" was[1].

    ~

    Grats to host on finishing the novel, sympathy it was more than a little traumatic[0].

    Oh, and lol: Gozer is one of the [redacted], nudge nudge wink wink. You owe us 13 years.

    Well, 13+25+666 to be technical, but hey.

    Like Host, we didn't really want to go through all this just for shits and giggles.

    ~

    "Emergency Government" is kinda lame when you've purged everyone else but don't include the tiny fraction of people you hate ~ very Stalinist.

    [0] Want a Booker Prize? Could be done [this is an "in joke"].

    [1] "Descent" and "Vestigial Remains" are not something to be proud about, given the cost of obtaining it even with major assist. Chances are, you've not been paying attention to the important parts. We didn't go Fasch, which is the real marker of quality.

    Oh, and we proved to [redacted] that burning your shit down is dead easy.

    1207:

    The pandemic may have political consequences. Not in the sense of political parties being blamed, or whatever, but in the sense that some political constituencies are majority elderly.

    For example, when the Tea Party arrived on the scene, a reporter who visited an event claimed he'd never seen so many rollaround oxygen bottles in his life. And then there's the pro-Trump Evangelicals, who apparently are shrinking as a political force, because of a lack of youth recruitment.

    Does anyone have a sense of new political landscape, next year? Or this September ?

    1208:

    It's actually quite interesting if you pay attention and don't fixate on the fuckable catladies too much[-1] only because the ending is a total "LOL, FUCKING DEADLINES" thing[0].

    ~

    $11.5 trillion.

    Those are rookie numbers, we're gonna pump that up a little.

    USA #1 CHINA #1

    https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/taiwan-1

    [-1] It's actually quite remarkable that F. Herbert did indeed invert the catlady trope waaay before anime or US cartoons, but there we go. [0] It's not. Given his son's later works, pretty sure you're not reading the actual real version.

    1209:

    [[[Note:

    If you want your advanced Time-Travel PHD, you need to now understand how the desire to return to the 2016 continuum split was used.

    For all those doubting our Temporal Abilities, you're sure as shit trying to APE them via stupid tricks.

    No, really: don't play if you can't do the meta5-level jokes. Which is basically all of you.

    ]]]

    Did you?

    Yeah. Totally. Fuck these simps from orbit, man.

    Really?

    Yeah, totally: they dream of the World pre-Trump, they got it.

    1210:

    That's a very complex little joke about how certain [redacted] are trying to alter time / history and undoing certain things. You're really not going to get it unless you're really "connected".

    Which is ironic.

    The medieval brooch is the only one of its kind found in the UK - and one of just seven known to exist worldwide.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-51834880

    That's not saying what you think it's saying.

    And there's >7 of them out there.

    Experts believe it played an important part in the display of status and wealth, but may have been torn from the wearer at great force before it was lost, possibly during a hunt.

    Yeah, you never get the entire set of "what does X jewelry piece mean" meta UKologists out when you're pulling that stunt.

    ~

    You lined up people to clap clouds[1] and express joy when the reality was horror. Then quietly vanished or disappeared or blackmailed or corrupted those who didn't realize what they were participating in.

    Erasing Reality: is a Crime. Thought you were all big on forensics.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4c8txL70zI

    [1] Not clouds

    1211:

    Yup. No word yet on details — sounds like they are still fumbling.

    • In-school daycares and before- and after-school programs may still be open. Up to individual school boards. • Some staff will be paid. Some may not. Some may be required to come in to work, others may not. No one knows the details yet. • No decision made yet on school year. Shortened? Postponed? • No word on community groups that use school buildings. Will community groups using school buildings be monitored/reporting possible Covid cases? Will they pay extra for proper cleaning after their events?

    Personally happy that they are taking action, but want clarity on what this means for me financially, as well as time-wise.

    Would also note that the soap, hand sanitizer, tissues, etc in your child's Ontario classroom was most likely bought by your child's teacher, with their own money.

    1212:

    Would also note that the soap, hand sanitizer, tissues, etc in your child's Ontario classroom was most likely bought by your child's teacher, with their own money.

    Alberta just got nuked, financially.

    There will be no more aid.

    Personally happy that they are taking action, but want clarity on what this means for me financially, as well as time-wise.

    It means that when you had insane drug-dealing psychos running things and didn't stop them, whelp.

    You're going to find out the price of civility.

    Or not.

    Wait. CAN is where you sterilized all those indigenous people up to the late 1990's, right?

    Yeah, you're fucked.

    1213:

    One of our satirical sites had a headline the other day "election to be called while enough Liberal voters are still alive".

    One suspect The Donald is hoping for the same. Admittedly Scotty from Marketing hasn't actually called the election (yet), possibly because his voters aren't dying (yet).

    1214:

    I wonder if the evangelicals think they won't catch it because they are special.

    A measure of their faith is the headline Christian Megachurch Cancels Faith Healing Service in Response to Coronavirus Outbreak. Yep. That's a thing that happened. I wanted a second source before I believed it. Apparently they're also telling their faith healers to avoid hospitals.

    1215:

    Suspect the immediate goal is to keep any kids who go away over March break from returning to classroom after a 14 day "isolation" happens - no perfect but better than nothing.

    1216:

    Funded survival places? What for? This is trivial. I just hope I don't get the flu while I'm on holiday. That would really be a PITA.

    1217:

    I'm cynical. I suspect people going away are going to go longer and/or later (because it's cheaper) so we still won't get the 14 day isolation.

    Besides, the premier of the province has told people to "go away and have fun".

    Better than nothing, I suppose, but I suspect the effect will be minor. Still, if it gives public health a chance to deploy testing stations etc it will have been worth it.

    1218:

    Scott Sanford @ 1214:

    I wonder if the evangelicals think they won't catch it because they are special.

    A measure of their faith is the headline Christian Megachurch Cancels Faith Healing Service in Response to Coronavirus Outbreak. Yep. That's a thing that happened. I wanted a second source before I believed it. Apparently they're also telling their faith healers to avoid hospitals.

    I wonder if that's because they're afraid of being exposed to the virus or if they're afraid of being exposed as frauds

    1219:

    I wonder if that's because they're afraid of being exposed to the virus or if they're afraid of being exposed as frauds

    Yes.

    1220:

    I was out on the freeway (UK motorway) today, between the northwest San Fernando valley and east of Pasadena, and there were remarkably few big trucks out; I think I saw only one with a freight container. This on a route which normally has lots of them. L.A. Terminal Island must be very very quiet. (It was also raining, though not heavily. The number of people who were driving at maximum speed with no lights was a surprise.)

    1221:

    Depends on where you live. We've had two major train wrecks in L.A. in the last 15 years, with fatalities. Some of them were people I knew.

    1222:

    the Los Angeles library system is going to be closed through the end of March (at least). The news came out this evening. (That's the Central Library, downtown - worth visiting for the art inside - and its 72 branches.)

    1223:

    About grass clippings.... https://richsoil.com/lawn/god.jsp

    My next door neighbor pays for a lawn service. I mow and leave it (electric mulching mower). I think my lawn looks as nice as his (when I mow it, which is not often enough).

    1224:

    Never got that far.

    I still remember the review of the latest Dune book in Playboy in the mid/later seventies (yes, I did read it), where the reviewer commented that "When Mr. Herbert finishes the Dune series, somewhere around 1996, with Imperial Morticians of Dune.

    1225:

    Schools in the South Bay are closed until sometime in April. I'd guess they are low-balling for now. Next step is testing - with a much greater than exponential rise in cases. This will tend to justify extended 'shelter in place'.

    At that point, cases will follow, in the US and UK, probably an Italy-like trajectory at least until summer. (Probably depends on locality - I'm not sure how population density correlates with virus transmission.)

    1226:

    Spammer ahoy! @1226

    [[ a mass dump - I'm surprised it was Herpes cures and not Trump Virus cures - mod ]]

    1227:

    Adelaide has closed the borders to other states (for people), and I'v been lead to believe that schools will be closed (around Australia?) by Thursday. I expect there will be a 5-6 week lockdown announced by the end of next week the series continues to look like exponential (rather than sigmoid).

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