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Abolish the monarchy!

Thursday marks the 70th anniversary of the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and a bunch of other nations who for various reasons didn't become republics after decolonization.

I have nothing against Liz personally—she's performed the monarch's duties diligently for 70 years—but she's 95 and probably doesn't have many more years to run in office.

I submit that when she dies, it will be past time to end the monarchy and held a constitutional convention for the UK to decide what sort of place it wants to be in future.

The British monarchy is a constitutional living fossil, with theoretically vast powers that nevertheless only exist as long as they are never used. And it has a distorting effect on the politics and culture of these islands.

By existing in its current form it establishes a state religion, the Church of England—one of EIIR's titles is "protector of the faith", the monarch is the head of the church, and thereby there is no complete freedom of religion in the UK. (You or I are not restricted in our beliefs, but the monarch? If Charles were to suddenly announce he's an atheist, it'd cause a religious constitutional crisis.)

It also establishes a second class of citizenship—everyone who isn't in the line of succession, that is, a member of the royal family in the line of descent. Royals can't vote in parliamentary elections or hold elected office. On the other hand, nobody except members of the royal family are eligible to be head of state. There may well be other rights we gain or lose through this constitutional difference in legal standing, but it's the most obvious one. Every child growing up in the USA or Germany is told, "you could become President"—but in the UK, that's simply not true.

On the other hand ... the Queen appears to have complete legal immunity. The notional source of legal authority in the UK is an abstraction known as "The Crown". It's not an actual fancy hat—you could steal the crown jewels but it'd still exist, penumbrally clinging to the reigning monarch. And the problem is, laws have force because the Crown makes them (or rather, signs Acts of Parliament that create laws). A side-effect is that laws apply to everyone and everything below the Crown, not including the Crown itself—or, presumably, its 95 year old wearer. So far we've lucked out because EIIR seems to be nothing if not law-abiding, and the only probable law breaker in the family is several steps removed from the Crown (Prince Andrew). But I've seen lawyers argue that if EIIR picked up a gun and shot someone at random on Regents Street (as Donald Trump boasted he could do on Fifth Avenue in New York) she'd have complete immunity. Crown Immunity: it's a thing.

There's the patronage issue to consider. The monarchy can appoint people, unaccountably, to the upper house of Parliament, the misleadingly-named House of Lords—since 2003 or so it's been an 80%-appointed revising chamber. Due to the aforementioned state religion the monarchy already appoints Bishops who sit in the HoL and contribute to draft legislation. The monarch can in principle create unlimited new life peers, to shove a legislative agenda through (this is how the Liberal government in 1911 broke a constitutional deadlock with the Tory peers, with the assistance of the King, and passed the Parliament Act (1911)). Its scope for causing havoc today is somewhat reduced, but not completely gone.

The Crown can also grant lesser honours, knighthoods and medals, as rewards for services rendered. Usually it doesn't, and is instead guided by a government committee. But again: a power unused is not a power non-existent.

I'm not even going to touch the thorny subject of the Crown Estates, the palaces and paintings and fancy jewellery the monarchy has collected like magpies over the past three or four centuries. That's trivial in comparison with the constitutional mess of exceptions caused by the existence of the monarchy itself.

But we also have the final point: that the monarchy is a very dangerous glue to rely on for holding a fissiparous bunch of nations together in one state. It's an elderly glue and it's crumbling, and Prince Charles (or King Henry IX as he's widely rumoured to be in future) is not remotely charismatic, or a unifying figure. EIIR managed to spread herself across the whole of the UK, but Charles is very visibly a posh boy from the Home Counties with a foot in Cornwall and no obvious ties to Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales. However, he's unaccountably popular with the red-faced Brexit-voting Gammons in Deep England. Expect any post-coronation monarchist flag-shagging to rapidly turn into a centralizing exercise in English nationalism (which always runs at the expense of the periphery, even though they don't say the verse in the national anthem about "rebellious Scots to crush" aloud these days). An insecure establishment is one that clings to power all the more harshly.

As for what we should switch to?

Frankly, we shouldn't copy the US model. Its failures should be blindingly obvious by now. Nor do we need a strong executive presidency (the US POTUS' powers are an enumerated and term-limited version of those of a late 18th century British monarch: we'd be turning the clock back two centuries if we copied it).

A constitutional presidence along the Irish model might work satisfactorily: the Irish president is a placeholder for head-of-state at international meetings and treaty signings, and a ribbon-cutter and ceremonial leader who is not a member of any political party: they are notionally above politics and serve as a unifying figure. But that's the theory. In the UK, it's hard not to see a presidency being hijacked for partisan purposes by the most radical faction, which today is the self-identified "Conservative" Party (who are absolutely not conservative except possibly in some nebulous xenophobic English Nationalist cultural sense).

We might do rather better selecting a president by national lottery, for a 1 year term: ribbon cutting, attending galas, declaring parliamentary sessions open, and meeting foreign dignitaries. (Combine it with the national lottery and, say, a £10M jackpot, and it'd still be a lot cheaper than paying EIIR's bills.) Disqualifying traits would be, solely, terminal illness with a prognosis of less than 18 months to live, ever holding elected office (past or present), or not wanting the job. (You'd have to have be pretty adamantly opposed to turn down £10M tax-free.)

Or finally, just bear with me ... why bother with a head of state at all?

The head of state has no practical job in the UK today that can't be delegated to other office-holders. Diplomatic stuff is the job of the Foreign Secretary or the Prime Minister. The State Opening of Parliament is pompous 19th century historic fluff, good for tourism but not business—the opening speech could be read by the Speaker of the House or the leader of the government. Actual government is a committee process, and a complicated one at that. Why pretend the state is led by a single decision-making person when really, it isn't? (Even the US President isn't a solo operator—they lead an executive team of around 400-500 staffers who divide up the job, and the actual President merely receives briefings, chairs meetings, sets policy, and then represents it to the rest of government and the nation.)

Modern states are too big to be ruled by one person. So maybe we should stop pretending.

PS: Recovering from Omicron. May be a bit terse in comments and moderation.

PPS: Absolutely no discussion of US politics is permitted on this thread before comment 300. Automatic red card time.

1220 Comments

1:

PPPS: I forgot the other obvious option -- at least, obvious in the current political climate: Privatize the Monarchy. Sell the right to call yourself king or queen each year to the highest bidder, with a 10% rake-off to fund the Conservative Party!

I for one welcome our new Tsar King, Evgeny Lebedev the First!

2:

The Queen can and regularly does appoint members of her family to various peerages, though I don't think they come with a legislative role (could Harry stand in the next hereditary peers by election?).

3:

Don't abolish the monarchy, send her on tour like any nostalgic reunited Boomer rock and roll band (I'd pay a lot to see Pink Floyd again) or the treasures of King Tut.

Dismantling, shipping and reassembling Buckingham palace at various major cities around the globe may involve some serious overhead but given the fascination everyone outside of Britain has with the Royals you would make that up in America alone.

Merchandizing opportunities are staggering, but the big money would be her own reality TV show. Watch as on Royal after another would be "Sent to the Tower" (the show's equivalent of being voted off the island or "you're fired!").

A Naked and Afraid knock off, however, may be a step too far.

4:

We had that in America, a TV show called "Queen for a Day"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_for_a_Day

5:

I like the idea of something that elevates the profile of the Cabinet. In Canada, people can get too tied up with the Prime Minister and the rest of the government loses visibility. It'd help diminish the personal cult side of the executive (either for or against the PM).

One of our responses to your doing away with the monarchy would be to insist that Governor General is still the Queen's representative even after QE2 has passed. It makes no real difference if there's a monarch behind the GG or not. It would save so much wrangling over this Head of State business.

6:

This is just starting to heat up as an issue in Australia, now over 20 years since the last referendum on a republic was conducted, and the Australian Republic Movement released their model late last year. Essentially, the state and territory governments nominate a few non-partisan figures and the population votes on the president. The first step is to prevent populists and the second is to prevent the government of the day installing a partisan hack.

Note that we're already halfway there with governors/governor generals usually being, for the most part, well respected, non-partisan, non-royal figures (although the idea was floated of William taking the reigns as GG for a stint).

Of course, republic talk has been delayed while implemention the Uluru Statement of the Heart goes to a referendum, namely over constitutional recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander sovereignty and an Indigenous Voice in Parliament (which potentially is a role that isn't too different from a presidency).

7:

I'm biased but I'd follow the Irish model (which I believe is also used by a bunch of other European and other countries, like Germany, etc). For a start it was designed as a drop-in placeholder for the UK monarch.

I'd ensure it was a ranked-voting system like Ireland or Australia to ensure a good compromise candidate rather than FPTP capture.

But i'd caution confusing the trappings of office (cutting ribbons, welcoming Ambassadors, etc) with the purpose. The office is ultimately the constitutional tie-breaker in a crisis: there is exactly one head of state, their choice, with whatever council of state advises, rules.

The main constitutional power they have is deciding whether to call an election, when the parliament is deadlocked and PM resigns. Also, refer legislation to the Supreme Court for adjudication before signing. But more significantly they decide if the country surrenders or fights on if invaded. One head, one decision. Similarly for any random crisis we haven't thought of yet.

All the other acts (Presidents medals to youth, Ambasadors, reviewing army and football matches, etc) are there to burnish their standing so when the big decision is made it will be accepted.

8:

I've seen some discussion of severing Canada from the Crown. (Short version of most of what I've read: "Yeah, it's the right thing to do. But honestly, it would be SUCH a pain in the ass, and would make so little difference -- do we really care that much?") The ethical, moral, and legal issues are of course mostly different from those of the UK. Yet there is this: if the UK abolishes the monarchy, surely Canada will, too.

9:

I submit that when she dies, it will be past time to end the monarchy and held a constitutional convention for the UK to decide what sort of place it wants to be in future.

Given the current state of our politics, a constitutional convention in America would be a total cluster f**K.

Having watched a few raucous sessions of Parliament I can only assume that A British version would be a bigger cluster.

P.S. Having watch my share of Masterpiece Theater over the years I always assumed you Brits were more civil, polished and polite than us Yanks. How shocked I was to learn that I was wrong.

10:
P.S. Having watch my share of Masterpiece Theater over the years I always assumed you Brits were more civil, polished and polite than us Yanks. How shocked I was to learn that I was wrong.

I have sometimes had in my mind the image of the bluff, honest, red-faced Englishman. Surely he exists. However, I just finished Simon Singh's /The Code Book/. And I learned that the English can be the most devious snakes on the planet.

11:

Modern states are too big to be ruled by one person. So maybe we should stop pretending.

Then you would want a committee presidency on the Swiss model, with a spokesperson for a 7 member council with no more actual power compared to his/her collogues than the Chief Justice of the US SC.

12:

I've seen some discussion of severing Canada from the Crown.

What if Quebec finally goes its own way, Albert becomes a US state or other scenario for Canadian dissolution?

13:

For that model to work the UK would need a written constitution as currently it's not codified and runs on the "ood chap" principle. Makes it so easy for current incumbent PM to push the boundaries.

14:

I have nothing against Liz personally—she's performed the monarch's duties diligently for 70 years—but she's 95 and probably doesn't have many more years to run in office.

3 more years to beat the French?

15:

I had cause to visit the crown estates for work. At the time I was puzzled as to why their security made that of GCHQ look a bit lax (to be clear- both are pretty intense but crown estates was more serious). Then I looked at what they are actually managing.....

I think the biggest blocker is going to be untangling the "crown" as a legal concept from the laws of three separate countries (and the fact our current government doesn't have any skill set beyond issuing a click bait press release won't really help there but hopefully one day a better government will come along)

We certainly aren't going to be able to move beyond the class system which gives chaotic chancers like Johnson some kind of magic powers without getting rid of the monarchy

16:

How about a one-year monarchy to be decided by some kind of Eurovision style talent contest? Recognize the pomp and silliness for what it is.

17:
Charles is very visibly a posh boy from the Home Counties with a foot in Cornwall and no obvious ties to Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales.

To be fair to the man (which is not something I am often wont to do), he did at least bother learning some Welsh ahead of his investiture in the colonial castle at Caernarfon.

(And did you mean George VII, rather than George IX?)

No objections to the rest, though, obviously. One of the few things I will still credit to Johann Hari is his book “God Save the Queen?”, which also argues how the continued existence of the monarchy is harmful to them, as well as to us.

18:
What if Quebec finally goes its own way, Albert becomes a US state or other scenario for Canadian dissolution?

No Canadian province would seriously consider joining those wackos to the south.

As for Quebec, my impression is that they are treated as a special case to such an extent in law and custom that they would have little to gain from formal independence.

19:

Let's have an lottery-winner constitutional monarch. The lucky winner gets to be Queen (or King) for a year, plus the £10m, and their family get all the associated royal titles. That way we get a plug-and-play replacement for the current reality show, lots of candidates for opening things and kissing babies, and a whole pile of clotheshorses shaped like normal human beings for UK designers and ateliers to show off with.

We'll get the occasional guano merchant or frothing racist, but it's still going to be an improvement on the current system, with the crucial addition that everyone will know a) they aren't chosen or trained, and b) they'll be gone within a year to be replaced with someone else.

20:

Speaking or merchandizing (and revenue derived thereof) is the Royal family considered a business entity (Windsor Inc. or Her Majesty, Ltd.)?

Is there a particular business that manages the production, distribution and sale of commemorative plates and jubilee trinkets?

Or is it farmed out to subcontractors?

Or is the Royal Family a non-profit?

21:

Simon Cowell would be king maker?

22:

I don't know.

Granted the current system is a genetic lottery, but at least they have been given a lifetime of training preparing them for the role.

23:

I'll just leave this here from the Irish Times because it deserves to be run out anytime this topic comes up:

Having a monarchy next door is a little like having a neighbour who’s really into clowns and has daubed their house with clown murals, displays clown dolls in each window and has an insatiable desire to hear about and discuss clown-related news stories. More specifically, for the Irish, it’s like having a neighbour who’s really into clowns and, also, your grandfather was murdered by a clown.

Beyond this, it’s the stuff of children’s stories. Having a queen as head of state is like having a pirate or a mermaid or Ewok as head of state. What’s the logic? Bees have queens, but the queen bee lays all of the eggs in the hive. The queen of the Britons has laid just four British eggs, and one of those is the sweatless creep Prince Andrew, so it’s hardly deserving of applause.

The contemporary royals have no real power. They serve entirely to enshrine classism in the British nonconstitution. They live in high luxury and low autonomy, cosplaying as their ancestors, and are the subject of constant psychosocial projection from people mourning the loss of empire. They’re basically a Rorschach test that the tabloids hold up in order to gauge what level of hysterical batshittery their readers are capable of at any moment in time.

24:

the British nonconstitution

I prefer "noncetitution".

Note for USAns: this is what Brits mean when they say nonce. (From prison service: UK prison classification for prisoners deemed at risk from attack from other 'regular' prisoners because of the sexual nature of their crimes NONCE = N ot - O n - N ormal - C ourtyard - E xercise.)

25:

I've heard that Charles could style himself George VII, but Henry isn't one of his names.

Choices seem to be: Charles III Philip II (or I, depending. Felipe II, Mary I's husband, was crowned King Philip. However, I'm not sure that they'd count him) Arthur George VII.

Or he could take a page from Jorge Mario Bergoglio or Angelo Giuseppe Roncalli and pick a completely new name for his (short) term as king. Such as Henry IX.

26:

He already thinks he is.

27:

Aargh. Above should be Charles III; Philip II (or I, depending. Felipe II, Mary I's husband, was crowned King Philip. However, I'm not sure that they'd count him); Arthur; George VII.

As for Canada becoming a republic: I think that we'll have the monarchy long after it's abolished in the UK (UR = United Republic?). Changing the constitution on something that fundamental would require:

Federal Parliament saying "yes"

ALL provincial & territorial legislatures saying "yes"

National Referendum saying "yes"

... to the EXACT SAME question. Which would include "what do you replace the monarch with?"

28:

Is continuity important? That’s one of the behind the scenes things Queen Elizabeth II does. She talks to almost all the heads of state of the world at various diplomatic functions, and is privy to at least the British side of history (all those daily “Despatch” boxes). That office on the royal yacht isn’t just for show; she’s busy communicating with a tremendous number of people.

So, is that historical perspective and related advice to the prime minister useful? It wouldn’t exist with term appointed politicians.

29:

Yes that institutional knowledge is important, but it's all going to go away when she dies (or gets Alzheimers). At which point they effectively have to hit reset. Well, not completely -- Charles has some experience in the field -- but the FO loses about 80% of it.

This is why governments run on bureaucracy: it's less efficient, but individual leaders are a critical single point of failure.

30:

Yes, I dearly love the idea of Boris Johnson and/or Priti Patel issuing a call to have a constitutional convention and throw out the monarchy. What a grand spectacle to watch from our side of the pond. We can have betting pools on whether other states will hive off and rejoin the EU, or whether they'll get into the cage match of determining what the United States of England's Constitution will look like.

I want to surface an idea Graeber proposed in Debt, which was that the Bank of England and the pound are backed by royal debt. Specifically, the Bank of England is the descendant of a consortium of bankers who offered William III a 1.2 million pound loan to fight France, in return for a monopoly on the issuance of banknotes, "which were, in effect, promissory noes for the money the king now owed them." (p. 339 ff if you want to see the whole argument) Graeber's premise is that this debt has never been repaid, and it is what creates the value of the pound. The Crown could, in his theory, repay Willie 3's and subsequent debts and put the Bank of England out of business by making its promissory notes (the Pound) worthless once the debt is repaid.

Presumably a bunch of people who won't touch the "what is money" question are already flexing their fingers to write about two paragraphs of "Pshaw," but I think it's a real question. The Crown has been interwoven into English finances for centuries. If the royal estates are liquidated to cover all debts, does the Bank of England go out of business too?

Equally important: Are there similar, silent, financial and real estate problems with dismantling the Crown? For instance, could China buy up all the royal seabed estates around England and cut off internet access on them? Will the wealthy and powerful fight to keep the monarchy, not because they care about the Windsors, but because they don't want a mechanism for nationalization and wealth stripping on that scale to be set up, for fear it will be turned on them next?

Finally, don't casually mock unused powers. That's all that has kept the world safe from nuclear war, for instance. They're part of the balance of power too. While it would be pleasant to think about a world without nukes, asking yourself whether you want to take part in the Invasion of the US and Russia to stop climate change is one of those ugly follow-ons that will have to be answered fairly swiftly thereafter. Daniel Keys Moran published a number of stories based on this premise, incidentally, so it's not unthinkable, any more than fighting German technical superiority was unthinkable a century ago.

Interesting times.

31:

Lavery @10 "I have sometimes had in my mind the image of the bluff, honest, red-faced Englishman. Surely he exists. However, I just finished Simon Singh's /The Code Book/. And I learned that the English can be the most devious snakes on the planet."

The first rule for being a devious snake is not to appear to be a devious snake. Those that do are amateurs.

Apparently, you never heard the phrase perfidious Albion.

32:

I'd love to see Canada abolish our links to the monarchy. I can't be arsed to spend any of my time or energy advocating for such a thing. I guess if some crown wearer actually tried to use some power against the interests of the country I'd get a bit more excited about it.

That said, I'm quite happy if we get zero monarchical visits, and would like my eyeballs to be exposed to zero information about that family. Generally speaking, a conversation that begins or continues with someone expressing an opinion about the personal lives of various royals is a sign that I need to find a better conversation.

33:

Shouldn't that be Arthur II? Historicity is not a requirement for being counted in this context. :-P

34:

Really? I think Alberta already considers itself Texas North, and I certainly wouldn’t object to shifting the border to stop them “liberating” the island.

I rather object to hereditary monarchy because it is essentially slavery. Very gilded slavery, sure, but still. It’s a terrible job that you really can’t escape from.

35:

I think Alberta already considers itself Texas North

Taxes North, but without the mass murders. That is an important qualification.

36:

The monarchy never used to bother me, but the conversion of England (at least) into happy peasants throwing street parties for the 70th anniversary of a ridiculous act of pseudoscience - believing that a particular strand of DNA and a ceremony makes you sent by God to govern a nation - is making me dyspeptic on the subject.

wg

37:

We've seen that particular piece in several places in the last 2 - 3 days, and feel it is the best description of the Brit monarchy -- also, plain and succinct, right to the point, of its actual function is to keep class distinction and privilege and power alive and well in Britain, no matter what.

38:

I don't think your account of the legal immunity of the monarch can be quite right. This is discussed in Kantorowicz's classic work of legal history and culture The King's Two Bodies, which examines, among other things, the episode where Charles I was put to death for treason against the king. It might seem strange to say that Charles betrayed Charles (though in an everyday sense, people do betray themselves); but as I understand Kantorowicz, the point was that the flesh and blood person Charles Stewart was convicted of having betrayed the juridicial person of the King. Is there some reason that Charles III (assuming he assumes the throne, of course) could not be viewed separately from the juridical position of the King?

39:

I agree that the monarchy should be abolished, because it is fundamentally against all principles of basic human rights, that any person be born into servitude, even if the job is gilded.

But there is something to be said for having a head of state as focus for the imagined community, both in moments of triumph and sorrow, to express those feelings in a way the community can identify with.

When people are good at that job, we get the Gettysburg address and "not even the beginning of the end" that go down in history.

Of course the critical skill for that job is being in tune with the imagined community and being a fundamentally decent human being.

Being born into the job is almost counter-predictive of that skill.

"Poet in residence" is probably too bargain-basement, but an upscale version of something like that would do fine.

The other valid role of head-of-state is that of "Government-of-last-resort", so that things do not go Totally Belgium if the democratically elected politicians become unclear about what their job entails.

Any good artist can do that at least as well as an aristocrat born into the 0th circle.

40:

So what if the queen suddenly decided to throw the book at the brexiteers and their frauds (and then reverting it)... or some other wildly popular thing amongst people who are not so much friends of the monarchy. I wonder if that would increase their popularity by enough to keep the monarchy?

41:

Well yeah, except that Charles I's execution was a political singularity for England (and the rest of the UK) -- nothing since then has been the same, it was a revolutionary act, followed by a Commonwealth (essentially a military dictatorship) then another monarchy then another revolution and constitutional settlement, all in the space of roughly 50 years.

While bits of the pre-1649 legal system persist I'm not sure the constitutional framework was ever remotely the same again -- certainly James II royally messed things up.

42:

So what if the queen ...

Firstly she's a 95 year old great-grandmother who has dedicated her entire life to stabilizing a thousand year old institution that went through a rocky patch in the 1930s. Sudden quasi-revolutionary action is not in her wheelhouse.

Secondly, she's conservative by disposition -- not a Tory party member, but they're the party of the Establishment and the Establishment works for her, she's almost certainly more comfortable with a Tory leader than a Labour one (unless the Tory is Boris Johnson who I cannot imagine her having a soft spot for).

Thirdly, Brexit is a short-term hiccup and EIIR doesn't really deal with issues of less than a decade's duration. If she'd foreseen how badly it would go in 2014, would she have acted? Sure -- but she didn't, and even if she had, her most probable courst of action would have been to have a quiet word with David Cameron about making sure the fix was in before running any more referenda. (The Scottish independence referendum in 2014? Not her problem: if Scotland had voted to leave the UK, well, she's also Queen of Scotland. Problems for the proles are not problems for the owner.)

Fourthly, intervening in politics would be one of those use-it-or-lose-it moments for those powers that exist in theory only because she never uses them. She could probably get away with dissolving parliament and calling a snap general election if the PM died suddenly and some sort of constitutional gridlock ensued, and she might get away with requesting the PM's resignation directly if he managed to get arrested for a serious (in US terms, felonious) crime, eg. PM goes mad and orders a strategic nuclear attack on Washington DC. Stuff that's uncontroversial, in other words. But otherwise she's very constrained. If she goes off the script they're more likely to have her doctors decide she's a bit exhausted and needs to spend some time in the countryside than to let her out in public.

43:

I'm going to be seriously contrarian IT AIN'T BROKE - DON'T FIX IT

We have Much more serious problems - like Bo Jon-Sun, whom, it's fair to guess, Queenie loathes, but she cannot get rid of him , because of our fucked-over electoral system - which is the first thing that needs fixing ( Even before ameliorating Brexit ) It is to be hoped that, when (If?) a General Election comes, Labour is the largest party, but to govern, they require the Lem-0-Crats & a guarantee of electoral reform. We must actually do something about GW - which means Nuclear Power, this far North. And so on. Abolishing the Monarchy is a WASTE OF TIME & EFFORT & a distraction from what we need to do.

Congratulations, Charlie, you have just thrown a Dead Cat on the table .....

44:

Just to be inject a useful bit of contrarianism, I'll argue that not only should the monarchy not be abolished, that peculiar institution should be expanded to include a certain kind of nobility.

What I have in mind is the precedent a certain country made by declaring that expenditure of money is equivalent to free speech, and equally protected. Granted that's not a principle of British law as it stands. However, if Johnson or Patel calls a constitutional convention, how will you insure that it's not written into the new constitution?

So here's the counter-proposal: en-noble the super-rich. Take away their franchise, so that neither they nor their money (critically) have any place in UK politics. Entangle their wealth into the Crown, to discourage them from playing games hiding their fortunes from taxes and oversight, while guaranteeing a certain level of legal protection of said fortunes (the legal bits, of course). Then transfer them to the job of nobility: running huge estates (they could sequester carbon for you!), putting on endless rounds of public appearances, and so forth. Their juridicial personae (the ennobled super-rich) and their real persons would be separable, so that, if they break the law, they still have to face penalties, while their heirs inherit their titles. They can do a Harry and Meghan and abdicate, but only at the cost of leaving wealth and privilege behind and becoming commoners again.

While I'm sensitive to arguments that all people should be treated equally, I'm more sensitive to arguments that any system can be corrupted by the wealthy and powerful. In this case, I'm proposing a way to remove those people from politics by elevating them above the fray, rather than just stripping them. They get the glitz and glamor, at the expense of losing real power. Or they can choose not to play by not becoming super-rich in the first place.

45:

I agree with JReynolds, Dave Moore, timrowledge amd Greg Tingey. This prosposal is insanely naive and your assumption of an improvement is unbelievably implausible. Yes, abolishing the monarchy may happen, but what will we get?

The Prime Minister already controls most of the power of the Crown, directly or indirectly and, as you have said before, the monarch could override that ONCE, and then only if the country backs her overwhelmingly enough to scare Parliament. What's more, Johnson has already grabbed powers he didn't have previously (the Electoral Commission), has stated that he wants to do the same for the Courts, various investigatory bodies and some others. So far, the armed forces have escaped, so the monarch's one-off weapon still has teeth. Do you SERIOUSLY believe that TPTB will willingly give that absolute power up?

Again, TPTB have massive experience with rigging public inquiries (can you remember the last one that actually took their failures to account?), and it is damn certain that they would do the same for any constitutional convention.

One likely possibility is that we get a ceremonial head of state, with all the crown powers controlled by the Prime Minister, nominally with some things needing the consent of Parliament. With FPTP and the current system, consider what Blair and Johnson would have done with it.

Another is that there is a balance of powers between a President, Prime Minister and Parliament, again with FPTP. What sort of checks and balances do you think that will have we have a result like the last one? The answer 'none' is sufficient.

Yes, I agree with you that the system is badly and fundamentally broken (and have been saying so since the 1960s), but changing it for something worse is NOT clever, and I would bet that's what would happen.

There ARE solutions, but this is not one of them.

46:

If anyone has touched on this in the comments so far, I missed it.

How much of the national income of the U.K. is from tourists visiting because of the Monarchy? The ceremonies and all that ...

If y'all abolish the Monarchy what revenue stream do you have to fall back on? Is it going to be sufficient? With the U.K. isolating itself from the E.U. what other industrial base do you have?

Are y'all getting ready to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?

47:

the Irish model (which I believe is also used by a bunch of other European and other countries, like Germany, etc).

Yes. The thing that Charlie calls the Irish model has become pretty much standard in countries that envision themselves as liberal democracies since 1945. There is ample empirical evidence today that liberal democracy is more stable and less likely to decay into authoritarianism if you have separation of powers between head of state and head of government.

On the one hand, a modern administrative state needs a chief executive able and willing to drive legislative agenda. This chief executive needs a certain ideological vision and a certain raw will to power to be effective. People running for chief executive also need to be free to openly communicate their agenda, i.e. to be brazenly partisan, so the electorate will have a clear idea of what its choices are.

On the other hand, a modern administrative state needs more than just an effectively directed legislature to be stable. There are judges and military officers to be appointed; there are formal diplomatic ties to be maintained; there needs to be someone who accepts ultimate responsibility for whatever it is the army does; there needs to be someone who can force the legislature to convene, or dissolve it and force general elections in the event of a constitutional crisis. These powers need to be exercised in a visibly and credibly non-partisan manner. They should not be held by the unusually-ambitious-by-definition person who just got themselves elected on the promise of moving fast and breaking things.

There is a pretty substantial number of current and historical governments, not all of which we can name here until after comment 300, that suggests you're probably headed for trouble if (1) the chief executive who campaigns on ideological agenda gets to appoint all the judges; (2) removing him or her is significantly harder than passing a simple-majority motion of no confidence in the first chamber.

48:

I think Alberta already considers itself Texas North

They do, but they aren't.

I think they are much happier being big frogs in a small pond, than small frogs in a much larger (and more crowded) pond. If Alberta became American they would lose a huge amount of influence: only 2% of the senate, and less influence in the house than they currently have in parliament.

Dragging this back to the monarchy, it was the Conservatives (in many ways Alberta's national party) who are the royalist party in Canada.

49:

Perhaps it wouldn't work for the UK, but for the Commonwealth countries still basing their authority in the Crown -- why not formalize the virtualization of that authority?

On EIIR's death, declare that Canada recognizes and mourns the death of her physical body, and now welcomes Queen Elizabeth II as The Crown in Perpetuity.

No onerous legal changes needed, no chance of unexpected royal criticality excursions, and they don't ever have to move the Royal Birthday or whatever.

There's an SFnal version where various branches of her upload are in dire competition with each other, but let's drop that as being too silly.

50:

How much of the national income of the U.K. is from tourists visiting because of the Monarchy?

How much of the national income of the USA is derived from tourists visiting to gawp at the White House?

It's probably about the same proportion, frankly.

(The UK -- Brexit mismanagement notwithstanding -- is still the world's 6th largest economy measured in GDP and fifth largest exporter (also by GDP). Tourism helps, but it's still only a drop in the bucket of the $3.3Tn annual GDP.)

51:

Canada is actually less likely to become a republic than the UK itself is, because since 1982 any changes to the office of the monarch require a constitutional amendment with unanimous consent from the federal parliament and provincial legislatures. We've never been able to get an amendment passed under the "general" amending formula that "only" requires 7 provinces to agree, so unanimous consent seems very unlikely - unless Charles becomes incredibly disliked. Add to that the tendency for provinces to bring in their own gripes into amendment discussions and the inevitable difficulty in deciding what our new head of state will look like.

No, my bet is that we'll be a monarchy-in-name-only at some point. We'll stop referring to things as Royal, and stop inviting the Royal family for visits. The Crown will remain as a concept, but it will no longer have any real-world physical representation in the country. It's already much less visible than it was 50 years ago, and that trend will likely slowly continue, even with the occasional hiccup like the former Harper government renaming the Navy and Air Force back to their old Royal names.

None of that will change if the UK becomes a republic, because the Queen of Canada is not the Queen of the United Kingdom, even if both jobs are currently held by the same person. If the UK becomes a republic, the Canadian monarchy will continue barring that unlikely constitutional amendment. Someone will inherit the job and will be proceed to be ignored by Canada. Muddling through is the Canadian way, after all.

52:

This piece does a fairly good job of arguing that the "rebellious Scots" bit was never actually an official part of the anthem. The thing which has been entertaining my sick mind over the last few weeks is what would happen if Brenda fell off the perch before the festivities get started. She's cutting it close now though.

53:

I'd be very uneasy that we'd wind up with something worse. I'd rather put effort into electoral reform and a written constitution.

54:

Okay, I'm against Charlie on this one.

I think the most important role that the monarch has is they are the head of the armed forces. When you serve, the oath/promise/affirmation of loyalty and obedience is to the monarch, not to the PM or anything else. Do we really want a system where politicians have the right to give any order they want? At present it's clear that HM won't issue an immoral order (because they never issue any non-trivial orders anyway) and any such order from lower in the chain of command can - in principle - be appealed upwards. Would you really want Boris to be at the top of that pyramid? That's the main reason I'm a monarchist (though "it ain't broke, don't fix it" comes second).

Just two other points:

(A) The UK does have a constitution. It's just not all written in a single document. The Bill of Rights is the single clearest part of it, but there's plenty more.

(B) Being the reigning monarch is an absolute defence against a criminal prosecution.

(Both of these came up when I was studying for my LL.M.)

55:

I understand that the Queen of England is legally an entirely separate entity from the Queen of England. Yet everyone here seems to be assuming that, when QEIIR heads off into the great beyond, Charles becomes King of Canada.

Why are we assuming that? What does the Canadian constitution say about succession? Is Canadian succession slaved to the UK? As in, when the person who embodies the Queen of Canada passes away, whoever the UK determines to be her successor there automatically becomes her successor in the monarchy of Canada as well? If that is the case, it is doubleplus naive to assume that abolishing the monarchy of the UK would have no effect on the monarchy of Canada.

Or does Canada have its own succession rules, which just happen to be identical to those of the UK?

56:

*I understand that the Queen of CANADA is legally an entirely separate entity from the Queen of England...

57:

LAvery, this actually hit the Supreme Court a decade ago tied into the changes to allow firstborn women to become Queen, and while I don’t follow all of the details, we follow the UK succession law. I believe this could be changed but it would involve an amendment in itself.

So you might be right - that a UK abolition might directly impact Canada. My guess it would be a messy situation, though.

58:

When you say, "we follow the UK succession law", do you mean, "our law is exactly the same as the UK law", or "our law is 'do whatever the UK does'"?

Because those are entirely different if the UK changes its laws in any way that impacts the succession.

59:

"(From prison service: UK prison classification for prisoners deemed at risk from attack from other 'regular' prisoners because of the sexual nature of their crimes NONCE = N ot - O n - N ormal - C ourtyard - E xercise.)"

Rule number 1 of folk etymologies: if the explanation is that a word originated as an acronym, it's almost certainly fictitious. (With the surprising exception of "OK", which is now generally thought to have originated as a facetious abbreviation of "Oll Korrect".)

Sadly, etymonline (the best source of reliable etymologies) has only the sense of "for a special occasion, for a particular purpose", which is apparently corrupted from an old form of "for the once", and which leads to the lexicographical term "nonce word", and the software use of "single-use token". World Wide Words also has an entry on that sense, but finishes with this:

There’s almost certainly no connection by the way, with the British criminals’ slang use of the word for a sexual offender, whose origin is uncertain, though it may be connected with nancy.

As for the monarchy, how about we declare that Queen Elizabeth II is immortal, and if she ceases to appear in public, that's simply because she is taking an indefinite break on health grounds, and it is nonetheless vitally important that her right to veto legislation be considered by the government of the day...

60:

By all means, automate The Queen In Perpetuity. Open Source the code, though. Don't want King Bender Rodriguez.

61:

Charlie Stross @ 50:

How much of the national income of the U.K. is from tourists visiting because of the Monarchy?

How much of the national income of the USA is derived from tourists visiting to gawp at the White House?

I'm not sure the two are comparable. It's probably NOT proportional.

For one thing, no one is suggesting doing away with the Office of President. For another, the White House is open for public tours1, and third most of the tourists who come to see the White House are domestic, i.e. come from the U.S. - and the White House is just one stop on the Washington, DC circuit. The Smithsonian museums & the various memorials (Washington, Lincoln, Vietnam wall) are a bigger part of DC tourism than the White House.

Plus, there's a lot more tourism in the U.S. that is NOT related to the White House or the U.S. Government - the World Trade Center 9/11 memorial & Statue of Liberty in New York City, The Grand Canyon of the Colorado in Arizona, Great Smokey Mountain National Park (still the MOST VISITED park in the U.S.) in North Carolina & Tennessee (with the Blue Ridge Parkway extending out to the north-east and Ober Gatlinburg & Dollywood to the west) ...

If you chopped off all of those, closed the rest of the National Park System and bombed Orlando, FL back into the stone age, THAT might give tourism in the U.S. as big a hit to the U.S. Economy as I think abolishing the monarchy might do the the U.K. economy.

62:

1 After 15 Apr 2022, 8 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. on Fridays and Saturdays, excluding federal holidays; scheduled on a first come, first served basis and must be submitted through a Member of Congress and their Congressional Tour Coordinator at least 21 days in advance. It's actually easier to get into the Capitol Building or the Supreme Court.

63:

Uncle Stinky @ 52:

Maybe have her stuffed & mounted and put on display like the Soviets did with Lenin?

64:

Plus, there's a lot more tourism in the U.S. that is NOT related to the White House or the U.S. Government

You seem to think tourists only visit the UK to gawp at the royals? Weird!

65:

While I can see that a Monarchy is daft in the 21st century and the government needs to be purged of any religious affiliation (Bishops in the Lords and EIIR as Head of the CoE), I would be horrified to see an elected President post appear.

Had that happened 30 years ago we would have had 20 years of President Thatcher after she was overthrown by Major et al. 20 more years of that sad and deluded old woman would have been horrific.

So, while I can see the joy in an elected head honcho, I only see it as acceptable if it is required that all the candidates have NEVER been a member of any political party. As politicians are not self aware enough to understand why that is needed, I would advocate sticking with the current tourist attraction and merely reforming the Lords as a first starting point - with same constraint there, no members who have ever been part of a party. We need experts not more craven, unemployed SPADS, russians and disgraced MPs in the Lords.

66:

Whether or not the monarchy should exist, the death of Brenda is probably not the time for abolishment. The task of working out what replaces it will fall to the government, and I shudder to think what the current lot will come up with. Personally, I quite like having them about. Like the national pets. Not too many though. Bit like that time my sister ended up with 11 guinea pigs.

Brian will no doubt invoke some entertaining crises when he tries interfering in politics, sadly he doesn't seem to have the competence to make it work. Perhaps we will be surprised...

Meanwhile, William and Harry are probably the UK's biggest closet republicans. By all accounts they thoroughly enjoyed, and were reasonably competent at, their time in the military, it being the closest to a normal life they'll ever see. Not surprised Harry buggered off at the first opportunity, though he could have been less whiney about it.

I could see William being a pretty decent king. If he has any sense, he'll trim the monarchy to the bone, both in terms of people and property. If we're really lucky, the shock of finally becoming King will be what does Charles in (the royal one, not our beloved author).

67:

Or does Canada have its own succession rules, which just happen to be identical to those of the UK?

See the Perth Agreement. TL;DR in 2013 the 16 countries for whom the British Monarchy technically provides the head of state (although in practice local vice regal representatives usually take on the physical requirements of the role) agreed to harmonise succession and this was subsequently enacted with local legislation, most of which has been in effect since 2015. This includes Canada. As with Australia, Canada's federalism presented some challenges which made debate more complex than it might have been, but that's all water under the (Westminster) bridge I guess.

68:

The biggest problem with HRH in my opinion is the ease with which she and her horrible family are trotted out as distractions whenever the government needs one. The public obsession with them repeatedly distracts attention from more important issues. Not to mention generating things like conspiracy theories (why would the lizards want to be royalty when there are politicians out there to replace?) and so forth.

Trouble is, whatever alternative is used is likely to be gameable in the same way, especially anything like a lottery or celeb contest to choose the next sucker office-holder. Given that, we might as well stick with them since it gives a lot of the real nutters something useless to obsess about, and is slightly less annoying than the average boy band.

69:

THAT might give tourism in the U.S. as big a hit to the U.S. Economy as I think abolishing the monarchy might do the the U.K. economy

Well this is a bit weird. First I think you're being way too modest about tourism attractions in the USA and you're heavily downplaying US culture and its widespread impact. Hollywood, Broadway, Nashville and Austin, Chicago and Memphis, the SF and LA of Hammett and Chandler, the road of Kerouac and Steinbeck, the list just goes on and on.

A bit like the Globe Theatre, the Lake District of Wordsworth and Coleridge, the London of Dickens and Conan-Doyle and ... just a few others. Edinburgh just in itself as a world heritage site. Taking a ferry across the Mersey to see the Liverpool and Manchester of the Beatles and all the happy travellers of the 80s and 90s, Abbey Road and Air Studios for that matter, the BBC and Battersea Power Station. Greenwich observatory, Kew Gardens, heck maybe you'd organise the sites by century and decades, leaving the really long-running interests till last. And that's without even getting into the "This village is where my ancestor came from? It looks very bleak no wonder they left."

I suppose people are not interested in Rome anymore because there are no more emperors?

70:

"If we're really lucky, the shock of finally becoming King will be what does Charles in (the royal one, not our beloved author)."

In fairness, it might be something of a shock for OGH if a bunch of men in suits knocked on his door with some documents explaining and proving a wildly improbably chain of events that mean he is formally the new sovereign. If nothing else he'd probably want a bit of a lie down.

71:

Adding to my #43 ...
This is not only irrelevant it's a deliberate distraction.
Look at the vast amount of futile & rancid "protest" about an evil that was abolished in 1833 ....
Rather than protesting against modern SLAVERY.
It's easy & free & amazingly feelgood to protest about people now 150 years dead, whilst conveniently ignoring slavery today!
RIGHT NOW!
Much safer to protest against the country that was the first to actually get rid of it, than risking the security thugs outside various "gulf" embassies, or, ghu-forbid it the embassies of the PRC!
You might actually get hurt!
The hypocrisy & displacement-activity is even worse that this fake attack on our, or anyone else's monarchy.
In the meantime, the real slavers & dictators are continuing to get away with it.

I note that EC ( # 45 ) regards this as a DEAD CAT distraction, as well - why am I not surprised?

waldo
I'd be very uneasy that we'd wind up with something worse. - exactly!

Phil
Brian has already intimated that he wants to downsize the monarchy & also "live of their own" - i.e. Get rid of the Civil List, declare "The Firm" a company of some sort, pay taxes, but NOT be dependant upon guvmint handouts ....

72:

You might actually get hurt!

Decades ago I noticed that animal rights activists were willing to throw paint on women wearing fur, but not bikers wearing leather…

73:

Some of us, like my wife, want to gawp at Downtown Abbey.

Me, I want to do the Beatles tour in Liverpool.

Maybe go fishing in Scotland.

However, I herd that Stonehenge (like the Blarney Stone in Ireland) is kind of a tourist trap.

So where should we go, what should we avoid, what are wastes of time?

74:

Congratulations, Charlie, you have just thrown a Dead Cat on the table .....

Doesn't do any good there; you want to over the mic to improve sound quality :-)

https://newmusicworld.org/what-is-a-dead-cat-and-why-is-an-outdoor-mic-furry/

75:

We both know that Bojo's dead cats aren't on the mikes.

However, I agree with you. I don't think that discussing abolishing the UK monarchy is a Johnsonian dead cat. I do think it's a useful discussion to engage in, even though I think it's a bad idea. The key point to me is that it's not an abstract discussion, but a deeply contingent one. This isn't about whether ceremonial monarchies are worse than straight up republics or parliamentary democracies. Rather, it's about whether ridding the Windsors' "Firm" of all its current works, good and bad, is a good idea in the near future, with politics are as they are. One can easily agree that monarchies are bad in the abstract, but the UK Crown is less bad than the probable alternatives, given current politics.

In a more abstract vein, I'd rank the UK crown as a better system for controlling absolute monarchs than, say, the Chinese Mandate of Heaven, which I'm beginning to believe was implemented as a very imperfect way of constraining some fairly bloody-handed conquerors. Is it ht the best solution? Probably not, but that's for further discussion.

76:

Put me in Camp "No pointless, symbolic Head of State is necessary". You can just have a Constitution that is narrowly focused on procedural grounds, such as something like "Elections shall be held at a minimum every X years, electoral districts must be fairly drawn and elections fair, parties can form a government if they win 50+% support or form a coalition representing that with other parties, parties get a shot to form a government starting from biggest to smallest if none get a majority", etc. The Prime Minister would then be the Head of State as well as the Head of Government, like they functionally already are. You'd still more or less preserve 99% of the parliamentary supremacy that defines the current system.

I don't buy into the idea that we need an actual person to be a symbolic Head of State who is "above the fray" supposedly despite everyone knowing they have no power. It smacks of monarchism - the idea that people need a face to put on government and if not given a purely symbolic one, they'll redirect their "groveling instincts" to whoever is in charge.

77:
a shock for OGH if a bunch of men in suits knocked on his door with some documents explaining and proving a wildly improbably chain of events that mean he is formally the new sovereign.

Made me laugh.

~oOo~

"Your Majesty, you must come with us."

Charlie looked around.

"YOU, your Majesty!"

"Can't I have a lie down?"

"You can have a lie down on your royal yacht, Your Majesty."

78:

I've always fancied Nevil Shute Norway's 1953 book In the Wet. Relocating the Queen permanently to Australia sounds like a great idea. I'm sure Moz would approve... :-)

79:

I once read a suggestion that the Monarchy might provide one useful service to the UK by harmlessly grounding some god-king-worship tendencies of humans. Does the UK have the equivalent of all those creepy paintings of trump for johnson?

Seems plausible.

However, even accepting that the position could surely be made even more ceremonial and even further stripped of any real power.

80:

I haven't read all the responses yet, so forgive me if I'm repeating things said.

I've actually been on the receiving end of a referendum asking this.

You'd think from the republican literature that it's "steady as she goes, but we're going to change the name of the ceremonial head, nothing to see here"

The reality is that it's a pretty naked grab for unlimited power and control by one arm of the government. The kind of unlimited control that the founders were very careful to avoid giving to anyone.

Constitutional Monarchy is the worst possible form of government other than all the rest.

Changing the name of the circuit breaker doesn't eliminate classism. Doesn't eliminate toffee nosed dicks, doesn't remove the need to pay for heritage properties, doesn't mean that the government's stash of paintings will feed the poor or construct social housing. All it does is remove the "break glass in case of looming civil war as the government is out of control".

The fact that the "governer general" and the device fitted to engines to stop them from exploding have the same word is not pure coincidence.

81:

Relocating the Queen permanently to Australia sounds like a great idea.

HELL NOES.

We ship our unwanted political figures off to the Thatcher Memorial Home for Incurable Tyrants and Kings. And we're happy with that arrangement.

I vote for another semi-anonymous post-modern worker or something instead. It worked for the Danes and it could work for us. What we need is some kind of system for picking the lucky winner. Maybe throw a dart at a map, go there and pick someone aged 20-30 from the people in the area? Same offer as OGH suggested when he was trying to evade his responsibilities... a large sum of money and exemption from further obligations once one retires.

82:

The other obvious way to derive supreme executive power is through the watery tart system. We could maybe update it by using a drones and airbourne delivery of a more modern weapon, but I think the principle is sound.

"here are the ashes of Queen Shervorn who ascended to the throne on the 3rd of May 2021 and will rule uncontested until {throws D12+4D20} 18th of October 2041"

83:

"The reality is that it's a pretty naked grab for unlimited power and control by one arm of the government."

That was certainly true of what you were offered back then. Whether that would always be the case is another question. One suspects that the referendum was intended to elicit a "Hell, no!" response, for one reason or another. Possibly to shut down discussion, so that a more reasonable proposal could not then be floated.

JHomes

84:

Hi Charlie, a small correction to your original post:

Thursday marks the 69th anniversary of the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom and so forth.

While she ascended to the throne after her father's death on February 6th, 1952 (and therefore her 70th anniversary as Queen is already almost four months behind us), her coronation only took place on June 2nd, 1953.

Other than that, I have no particular opinion about abolishing the monarchy. Do it, don't do it, I don't really care either way.

85:

I'll weigh in on the Monarchist side here.

  • President Boris Johnson. Its bad enough having an incompetent clown as head of the executive. Having him preside over the dignified bits of the government would be just too much. We're enough of a laughing stock over Brexit as it is.

  • A common complaint about much of our society is that it is too short-sighted; company bosses who don't think beyond the next quarterly report, politicians who don't think past the next election. The monarchy puts people with a perspective measured in decades and centuries at the heart of the British establishment. The monarch gets a weekly 1:1 with the PM, and all the royal family get to talk to VIPs from this and other countries on a regular basis, so they are in a position to have an impact. E.g. Prince Charles lecturing Trump on climate change. The only other institution I can think of with a perspective that long is the Catholic Church, but they are religious extremists, so not exactly beneficial to the rest of us.

That said, I'm not entirely sanguine about the whole thing. But for an accident of birth we would be facing the prospect of Andrew inheriting the throne, which would definitely be a Bad Thing (the man is an idiot as well as a hebephile). And I also feel uneasy about the human rights aspect. Condemning someone to life in a gilded zoo enclosure merely because of who their parents were does not sit well with me.

86:

From an Australian perspective, we absolutely need to remove an inherited head of state for one very simple reason - my sons will never have the opportunity to be the head of state of their home. Some other man, close in age to them and named George will one day be their king for no other reason than who his family is. I'm afraid that doesn't work for me.

87:

Re guilded cage we have modern proof this isn't true as the last monarch but one literally abdicated, and the Peerage Act 1963 (thanks to Tony Benn) allows giving up titles to sit in house of commons and vote etc.

88:

Prince Charles lecturing Trump on climate change.

If that had an impact, I'd be surprised if it was anything but negative. Trump doesn't have a record for learning from lectures (or really at all).

89:

Rbt Prior
Thanks for that, I'll remember that one (!)
But yes, the displacement/hypocrisy would be astounding, if it wasn't so depressingly common.
Hence my Monarchy / Slavery comparison, of course.

Duffy
I was fortunate to visit Stonehenge, when I was about 10, on the way to a holiday in Cornwall.
It was a cold, grey day, with perhaps one other family visible. I could & did walk up to & round the Megaliths, touching them, with the sound of the cold wind whispering over the grass & stones, conjuring an image of deep time.
Different megaliths - Google for them: "The Rollright Stones" & "Castlerigg Stone circle" & Avebury, of course.

The Brett
The ways of gaming your proposed system are rather obvious, I'm afraid.

JReynolds Already been done - recently - "A Servant of the People" as a TV show, with one V. Zelensky in the hilarious lead role.
Now being replayed for real in much more unpleasant circumstances, of course.

gasdive
Can I repeat the critical phrase of your last, just for emphasis & to show why I think this is a relly BAD idea? The reality is that it's a pretty naked grab for unlimited power and control by one arm of the government. The kind of unlimited control that the founders were very careful to avoid giving to anyone

HISTORICAL NOTE
The film "the King's Decision" shows why & how the current system is a "good idea" ....
Haakon & his advisors & cabinet are fleeing the Nazis, & a proposal is made, with a surprising number assenting to get down & grovel nicely to Vidkun Quisling, in the hope of mitigating the trouble.
Haakon says "NOT having with that - if you do that we are now a Republic"
It brought the crawlers up short .....

90:

At one point I rather liked the idea of an elected head of state, if we could use the opportunity to elect some one who was fun. My go to example was the late Oliver Read. Some one who could be relied on to get obnoxiously drunk at state banquets and start picking fights with foreign dignitaries.

Having now seen what an elected clown is like in the UK, I've changed my mind.

I'm now more inclined to Charlie's lottery head of state for a year idea. I'd extend that to the House of Lords too. Replace say 10% of the house each year with new Lords, selected from the population on the same basis as jury duty. If selected you get to pick your title (Baroness Jen of Snail!) and serve for ten years. The current daily attendance allowance is a pretty darn good income for most people, plus expenses. After ten years, you lose your position, but can keep the title and the (cruelty free faux fur) ermine robes for life. It keeps a second house that is selected by a different method from the commons, but removes the packing problem and the class and establishment friendly concentration problem the current one has. Not a chance of happening for those very reasons.

91:

First I think you're being way too modest about tourism attractions in the USA and you're heavily downplaying US culture and its widespread impact.

I think that most folks not living in the US (and maybe Canada) have no idea how fascinated the "typical" (definition is loose) US media consumer is drawn to anything about the UK monarchy. Almost any drek cheap movie on one of our dozens of cable channels will pay back it's costs and make money for the bakers. It has to be a real dead skunk to loose money. We get a new bio of Diana every 4 or 5 years (and a times more often) and the vacuous media gets all in a lather about it every time.

I suspect the #1 tourist destination metro area in the UK is London. In the US the stats who that the top 3 are New York, Las Vegas, and Orlando. Not sure where Washington DC fits into this.

Of course as I write then a Germany 20 YO and his GF (from a family we know well) are here on a 1 month visit. Just spent the first week in the DC area. Then off to Niagara Falls and out west for Las Vegas. LV mainly as a place to explore the Grand Canyon and nearby things.

I just realized this weekend that my daughter, the trip organizer, put them in DC on Memorial Day weekend. I have to ask if she considered this. It is one of the few times when getting around DC can be difficult due to the crowds.

92:
President Boris Johnson

The defence against this is three-fold: (1) explicitly limited, enumerated powers. No scope to interfere with the government in normal practice - eg. the President's speeches have to be vetted by the government, etc. (2) minimalist pay and benefits. Compared to what Thatcher, Blair, etc would make from various board memberships and speeches, the President's salary is pretty modest, and under government control. They can't even leave the country without government permission. (3) Backup: its an elected post, with nomination rules that are tough, but not hackable by gov't - eg in Ireland you need 20+ members of the Oireactas (out of 218) or 4+ local councils (out of 31). Not just the nomination of the government, by constitution.

These mean that the post mostly goes to 2nd rank politicians (or 1st rank activists, in the cases of Mary Robinson, etc). Its by design a serious step-back for a Prime Minister - cutting ribbons is not what they went into politics for.

But it does need to be a politician or politically-skilled person: when it matters, it really matters. They need to understand what they're doing with the role.

93:

"Stonehenge [...] is kind of a tourist trap."

Worse, it's a Heritage Experience.

However, its visitor centre cafe serves as a handy refreshment stop if you're travelling on the A303 for other reasons.

94:

A lot of people take pleasure in knocking Prince Charles. His brain may be partially out to lunch, but his heart is in the right place and he has a spine. That puts him two organs ahead of any of our current politicians. We would probably be better off if he dismissed the government, and started ruling directly (and via appointees). That is a pretty damning indictment of the mess we are in.

We could do a LOT better, but one key fact most people are missing is that you need independent mechanisms with teeth to be a check on abuses of power. And that DOESN'T mean 'independent' as abused by TPTB in the UK, where it merely means arms-length lackeys. The USA sort-of has them, but the UK doesn't. What does this to do with whether we have a monarchy or not? Nothing, except that a monarchy is a convenient hook to hang such mechanisms on (see the remarks about the armed forces above by Clive Feather and me).

I would strengthen (and prune, drastically) the Privy Council, and exclude the government from its selection; no, it would NOT be elected. The courts, police, prison system, armed forces, Electoral Commission, data/statistical organisations and investigatory authorities would be answerable to the Sovereign through the Council and NOT (theoretically) the Sovereign through the Prime Minister. But there ain't no hope of TPTB relinquishing that much power.

95:

17 - Chuck III or George VII you mean?

20 - That prompted a wondering, followed by a Wikipedia , which suggests that the answer to "are they a non-profit?" may be "once but not any more".

31 - "Perfidious Albacon!?" Yes I have heard it. So has Nojay for sure. Charlie maybe has too.

33 - That could work. I don't think there's ever been an "Arthur of Ireland", but Englandshire, Scotland and Wales all make claims to "Arthur of Camelot" (Arthur 1).

34 - Belgium (and I think the Netherlands) expect the monarch to retire at the relevant state retirement age.

52 - The "UK National anthem" is legally folk music so you can't just "wish a regionally unpopular verse out of existence".

61 - So are various of the UK's royal palaces, including Buck House itself, the Palace of Holyrood House in Embra...

65 - Para 3 would, for example, disbar me from standing for the role.

66 - Will someone please explain to Meghan and Harry that "not being a public figure" means "not being a public figure", not "only being a public figure when and for as long as it suits you"?

84 - At which point (6 Feb 1952) she also demonstrated that monarchy moves faster than the speed of light!

91 - I'm more interested in DC (specifically the Smithsonian and the Mall of the Americas) than in Noo Yoik or Lost Vegas!

96:

One suspects that the referendum was intended to elicit a "Hell, no!" response, for one reason or another. Possibly to shut down discussion, so that a more reasonable proposal could not then be floated.

So you've heard of John Howard then...

97:

Re: "nonce". The OED has two different words spelled like that.

1: (earliest citation around 1175) "For the particular purpose; on purpose; expressly. Frequently with infinitive or clause expressing the object or purpose." and various derivative meanings.

Origin: A variant or alteration of another lexical item. Etymon: English anes. Etymology: Variant (with metanalysis: see N n.) of early Middle English anes (in the phrases to þan anes , for þen anes ), alteration (with adverbial suffix -s : see -s suffix1) of ane (in e.g. to þan ane) < Old English anum (in e.g. to þam anum for that one thing).

The word is thus not a form (with metanalysis) of the genitive of one adj., n., and pron., nor of once adv.: its spelling in the Ormulum, for example, corresponds to the form in that text of the genitive of one (which is aness) but not to that of the adverb once (which is æness).

2: (first citation 1971) "A sexual deviant; a person convicted of a sexual offence, esp. child abuse."

Origin: Of unknown origin. Etymology: Origin unknown. Perhaps related to nance n. (see quot. 1984), or perhaps compare English regional nonse good-for-nothing fellow, recorded in Eng. Dial. Dict. Suppl. from Lincolnshire.

Re: Arthur I versus Arthur II.

Numbering of monarchs begins or restarts at the Norman Conquest; note that there were three Edwards before Edward I. The Harold that lost at Hastings is Harold II.

I read somewhere many years ago that there is an agreement to use the highest number of the two UK monarchies from now on, so if we ever have another James he will be James IX. This makes Elizabeth II an acceptable abbreviation for Elizabeth II & I.

98:

@97 Re James IX - I doubt that any monarch would be James, as it would raise the question as to whether James III/VIII should be recognised as in the list given he wasn't an undisputed monarch. I expect the royal family carefully avoid anyone being called James to avoid the issue.

99:

Yes, agree on Harry and Meghan, hence my comment about their whinging. But then, that's Americans for you. I reckon when he divorces her he'll fake his own death, and become a brickie in Tyneside called Dave.

100:

It would make for some entertaining blog posts.

"Latest book is delayed again, had to go open a swimming pool and wave at some peasants. On the bright side, punched Johnson on the nose and there's bugger all he can do about it."

Be awesome for doing research though.

101:

My idea (which is mine) is that the people of the First Nations decide whom the incoming Monarch is to be, and that she will reign for only one decade.

102:

This is for Canadians only, obviously. Wouldn't work for the U.K.

103:

This is for Canadians only, obviously. Wouldn't work for the U.K.

Why not? The First Nations have had over a century of the Brits picking their monarch — seems like turnabout is fair play :-)

Why not decolonialize by making the monarchy a rotating office between all the nations in the Commonwealth? Give every nation their decade…

Alternately, if genetics are still considered important, institute a breeding program to ensure that the monarchy represents the full panoply of the Commonwealth. Decree that all future royal spouses must come from a Commonwealth country other than England. Hybrid vigour and all that! Would some Maori blood stiffen the Royal Spine? :-)

104:

Re James IX - I doubt that any monarch would be James, as it would raise the question as to whether > James III/VIII should be recognised as in the list given he wasn't an undisputed monarch.

Oops, I miscounted. It was I & VI then II & VII, wasn't it?

As for the next James, the Bill of Rights in England and the Claim of Right Act in Scotland passed the Monarchy to William III and Mary II. But it's an interesting question as to whether the monarchy deliberately avoid certain names.

105:

Clive Feather
Yes, they do. "John" for one - once was enough! Similarly, the Dukedom of "Clarence" will not be revived - too many bad apples.

106:

I'm more interested in DC (specifically the Smithsonian and the Mall of the Americas) than in Noo Yoik or Lost Vegas!

What no mouse?

The Smithsonian is neat. But they have a very very full attic so what you see from year to year changes. I was able to got through the "history" one when they had models of all the warships before steam on display. I think they used to build a model before the ship which would make sense. Also the Centennial building had all kinds of steam things. Both of these on one visit when my kids were around 10 years old which they really liked.

And if you are any kind of tech nerd you must go out next to Dulles airport and visit the Air and Space Annex. They seem to have one of everything. A collection of WWI planes hanging from the ceilings with catwalks around them, an SR-71, a Concord, a shuttle, an Me 163 Komet, and more. And you get to be close. I liked the row of 20 or more engines from the first days of flight and covering the next 100 years. Total snooze for my wife.

As to Noo Yoik (Brooklyn accent?) we did a walking of much of Manhattan 3 years ago on a perfect weather weekend. Free music in the park, Stature of Liberty and Ellis Island, Intrepid, Museum of Natural History, and the Empire State Building when no one else was interested. So the 3000 or so people wander maze to queue people up was empty.

Las Vegas (I get to go to the area on personal business every now and then) is where my daughter learned what "over the top" means. I also can pass.

107:

*Re guilded cage we have modern proof this isn't true as the last monarch but one literally abdicated, and the Peerage Act 1963 (thanks to Tony Benn) allows giving up titles to sit in house of commons and vote etc. *

The gilded cage is not because the royal family can't vote, its because they can't step outside their properties without first arranging (at the very least) a police escort. You or I can go window-shopping down our local high street, or take a day at a theme park, any time the mood takes us. They can't. If anyone else was restricted to a limited set of addresses unless monitored by the police we would assume they were, at the least, awaiting trial for a serious crime.

Yes, their properties are large, well appointed, and well staffed. But they are still a cage.

That said, I've heard that the Queen sometimes takes a walk around the woods in Windsor with just one bodyguard. On one occasion she was accosted by some American tourists who didn't recognise her, but just wanted to chat. "Do you live round here?" they asked. "Yes". "Have you ever met the Queen?". "No, but he has." Thereby ensuring that the tourists attention turned to the bodyguard and away from her.

108:

104 - NO; it was James the Vi and i then James Vii and ii. And yes, it was WilliamAndMary.

106 - No Mousevitz or Duckau! I did Disneyworld at my employer's expense back in 1997 and am all moused out.
Totally agree about Dulles and the Air and Space Annex; I'm just about as much of a tech nerd as OGH; which reminds me about Boeing!

109:

There was a series by Jerry Seinfeld on Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee. One of his picks was Barrack Obama, while Obama was president.

POTUSes are in a guilded cage too. Obama was driving the car, approached the gate, greeted the guard by name and said "I'll just be taking this car out for a spin around Washington."

"That's not happening, sir."

(All staged ahead of time for the cameras, of course, but that's what would happen.)

110:

Along the lies of "What would the monarchy be replaced by?"
And seeing the many awful-to-utterly-ghastly alternatives presently on offer, I'm reminded of Hilaire Belloc ...

His Father, who was self-controlled, Bade all the children round attend To James's miserable end, And always keep a-hold of Nurse For fear of finding something worse.

111:

I'd be surprised if POTUS could even find the keys to a car much less get behind the wheel and start one. Unless a staffer gave them to him. But then he'd have to leave via a path where way too many SS folks would "ah" dissuade him.

112:

If you are in England and want stones, then Stonehenge is nice but they are a bit distant unless you book for the expensive "Circle Experience" where you wander among them (as you were permitted to do 40 years ago).

Cost free is Avebury - a bit to the north of Stonehenge where you get a wonderful circle, you can touch them and sit on them, its a lovely walk round them AND theres a pub in the circle (it surrounds a small village). But, book a table if you want to eat there.

But, if you are in Scotland already, its impossible to beat The Ring of Brodghar and Stenness on the Orkney mainland. Absolutely superb - a spectacular ring in a lovely setting with the sea birds calling from the adjacent loch. Plus theres Skara Brae and a whole bunch of other stuff - its a beautiful place. Scapa whisky is well worth a bash too...

113:

Yes, and I like your story!

114:

You missed Calanish, with its 227 (IIRC) stones, or Calanish on North Uist (drive 1km South from the Free Church, then locate the stones using "ouch archaeology".

115:

I'd be surprised if POTUS could even find the keys to a car much less get behind the wheel and start one. Unless a staffer gave them to him. But then he'd have to leave via a path where way too many SS folks would "ah" dissuade him.

The Obama and Seinfeld shtick happened, IIRC because Seinfeld gave him the keys. Purportedly Obama had trouble getting his license again after he returned to civilian life, too.

Otherwise, I agree that the President is not free to move as he wishes. That's the problem with stochastic terrorism and the whole nuclear deterrence thing. The White House has been called the world's most expensive prison by at least one denizen, probably more.

116:

Purportedly Obama had trouble getting his license again after he returned to civilian life, too.

I saw him tell a story where not too long after he left the office he was in a car stopped at a light. He said it took him a minute to realize that he had just spent 8 years never waiting for traffic signals.

117:

I was booked to go there April 2019 but my wife ended up in hospital and then booked again for April 2020...

Have heard its nice but I have no first hand experience...

118:

Charlie Stross @ 64:

From the outside looking in, it looks like it may be an axis around which the rest of tourism in the U.K. revolves.

119:

Damian @ 69: I suppose people are not interested in Rome anymore because there are no more emperors?

They still got the Pope ... what do you think would happen to Italy's tourism & hospitality industry if the City Council decided to demolish the Colosseum?

I know the U.K. has other things going on besides Royal tourism, and it's not my decision to make anyway, but that's the first thing that occurs to me when y'all start talking about abolishing the monarchy. Next thing you know, you'll want to be removing the Beatles statue from Penny Lane.

120:

Duffy @ 73:

I went to Scotland to ride the Harry Potter train, which unfortunately had made its last run of the season a couple of weeks before I got there ... due to my R&R being swapped with someone who needed to get home for a family emergency. I missed the train, but he got home in time to see his dad, so fair exchange as far as I'm concerned.

I did get to see Edinburgh Castle while I was there & I'm pretty sure that has something to do with U.K. royalty ... also got to see where Greyfriars Bobby once lived.

Got to photograph a castle on a hill after trudging all the way around the Town of Sterling in the rain ... and as it happened the clouds broke for just a few minutes, so I got a castle on a hill WITH A DOUBLE RAINBOW. Probably wouldn't have gotten the rainbow if the guy I asked for directions hadn't sent me the long way round.

Also got a rainbow when I photographed the ruins of Urquhart Castle.

121:

paws4thot @ 108:

Grew up here on the east coast of North America. I've been to DisneyLAND twice (age 10 & 14), but never been to DisneyWORLD.

I have been to Florida a few times - to see an Apollo launch, a Space Shuttle launch and to visit Everglades National Park when it still had the pink hotel.

I had a friend moved to Pensacola while I was in college and I hitch-hiked down to see her a couple of times.

122:

They still got the Pope

You mean A pope, the orthodox churches also have popes. These days they even talk to each other, not like in ancient times when multiple popes in the same place was a recipe for disaster.

Just like the UK has A queen. She's only the queen to people ruled by her gracious majesty. Which I vaguely recall the US doesn't qualify for any more? Perhaps if you asked nicely?

What would be cool would be a G20 style summit where they collected all the ruling royalty from around the globe. The USA needn't be entirely left out, you have the Hawai'iian Royal Family and could promote one of them to king, queen or emperor if you really needed to.

123:

Just like the UK has A queen. She's only the queen to people ruled by her gracious majesty. Which I vaguely recall the US doesn't qualify for any more? Perhaps if you asked nicely?>/i>

I'd take her over the orange one any day...

124:

Not just the royals. We visit the UK to gawp at all the remains of feudalism!

125:

I disagree completely. We should use the moist bint system instead!

126:

121 - Only obvious difference I see is California vs Florida accents. I still got the feeling of "being processed", that I didn't get from Efteling (Nl) or Busch Gardens (also Florida).

123 - You prefer the House of Battenburg to the House of Orange (Nl)!?

125 - Wet tarts distributing swords is not a basis for a system of government. Supreme executive authority derives from a mandate from the people!

127:

Two tangents: an anthology of first nations speculative fiction has been released in Australia. That's perilously close to on topic for this blog so I'm mentioning it now rather than in 170-ish comments time. Amazon have a kindle edition to rent, or you can buy the paperback.

https://theconversation.com/the-first-ever-first-nations-anthology-of-speculative-fiction-is-playful-bitter-loud-and-proud-182228

And completely off the topic, wall, vicinity of sanity and all that. I have decided that C is a vaguely typed language. Meaning it is strongly typed, but that type is (void *), or "pointer to whatever you want it to be". Or in the case of code that I just spent an hour staring at... pointer to an element of the structure, not the structure itself. sigh.

128:

mandate from the people!

Not in Australia!

I want a mandate
to abuse my authority
a mandate
to impose my will
on the majority
who didn't vote for me

Eye "Mandate" from "Politics can be fun" back in the 1990's.

https://eyemusicgroup.bandcamp.com/track/mandate-with-the-prime-minister-on-guest-vocals

129:

When I lived in Aberdeen in the late 80s a group of us would often go to Lochnagar. Three of our group were paddling in a burn and they said suddenly there were lots of corgis and then the queen. I went the other way and was warned not to go down in that direction from some guy so there was a bit of security, but not that much.

130:

Supreme executive authority derives from a mandate from the people!

I am sure The People's Mandate (AKA Fabian Everyman, AKA The Black Pharaoh AKA The New Management) would agree completely. :-)

131:

DavidL @ 91: Think you're mixing domestic and foreign tourist interest here, and like all tourist revenue the vast bulk is generated from domestic tourism - UK 2020 tourism revenue from overseas visitors was £6b vs £35b from domestic tourists going on day trips or weekends away somewhere else in the country alone.

Re the Irish Presidential model, seeing it as divorced from political horse-trading isn't really accurate, the 2011 winning candidate is a long standing Labour TD, fighting off strong competition from a former Dragon's Den judge with strong Fianna Fail links, and of course Martin McGuinness, who I understand had some history in Sinn Fein. That said, it has managed to pull the pin on at least one dodgy government in the past forty years...

132:

Given that the Irish Government had convicted McGuinness of membership of the IRA, it would have been pretty wry to then have a him as president.

The GFA and Sinn Fein participation gave him a thin veneer of respectability, though it must have been challenging having a near illiterate as NI Education Minister.

133:

There's no point to the monarchy right now.

As a long term appointed, politically immune office, the Crown could work as an insurance against a petty tyrannical PM with absolutely no respect for the law, the process of government or the office he holds, but given that Liz has made it quite clear by action in the last century that she does not believe it is the role of the modern crown to overrule democracy, the position is entirely redundant.

The current government has proven that the current system relies on a sense of honour that it doesn't possess, the thread of abolishment has neutered the Lords, and without the Crown we have a system with no remaining checks or balances at all.

Until quite recently I was neutral on republicanism - The family are a net gain to the economy in most definitions, being born into the royal family is less likely to get you political power than having parents who can send you to Eton. But since we're at the point where the entire system needs to be razed to the ground, I think Liz's exit would be a good point to kill it all off.

134:

Given that the Irish Government had convicted McGuinness of membership of the IRA, it would have been pretty wry to then have a him as president.

There's a long history of terrorists national liberation movement leaders becoming heads of state or prime ministers: to name but three, consider Robert Mugabe, Menachem Begin, and Nelson Mandela. (Then throw in Mahatma Ghandi for a unicorn chaser.)

After the GFA Martin McGuinness turned statesmanlike -- at least enough for Ian Paisley to do business with him which probably nobody could have anticipated in the bad days of the 1970s and '80s.

135:

There's a long history of terrorists national liberation movement leaders becoming heads of state or prime ministers: to name but three, consider Robert Mugabe, Menachem Begin, and Nelson Mandela.

Please also add George Washington and Fidel Castro to the list.

136:

Ah, so that's where Charlie got The Mandate's name from!

(I'm one of today's 10,000, I guess).

137:

an anthology of first nations speculative fiction has been released in Australia

I'll have to check it out, but I take issue with the review you posted. Specifically: "This is not “just” an anthology of First Nations speculative fiction, but also the first anthology of First Nations speculative fiction."

This isn't the first such anthology. For example, Walking the Clouds was published a decade ago: "In this first-ever anthology of Indigenous science fiction Grace Dillon collects some of the finest examples of the craft with contributions by Native American, First Nations, Aboriginal Australian, and New Zealand Maori authors."

https://www.cbc.ca/books/walking-the-clouds-1.4170829

The published claims This All Come Back Now as "world’s first anthology of blackfella speculative fiction", which it may well be, but it isn't the first anthology of First Nations science fiction, or even the first science fiction anthology to contain works by Aboriginal Australian writers. Possibly sloppy language on the part of the reviewer — but I'd expect a senior lecturer and department head to be a bit more precise in their phrasing.

138:

it must have been challenging having a near illiterate as NI Education Minister

Back in the days of the Harris government Ontario had a dropout as Minister of Education.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snobelen

139:

I am sorry, but that is demonstrably wrong. The IRA's terrorism did NOT stop immediately after the GFA (neither in practice nor as policy), which is the reason there were several concessions to it afterwards, and Martin McGuinness suported IRA policy throughout. Yes, the shooting of the armed forces (including police) and atrocities against civilians stopped after the GFA, but things like kneecapping continued until a further agreement.

For the record, at least the same is true of the 'other side', and they continued to wage low-level (and, thank heavens, largely ineffective) terrorism, and still do, but they always were a loose-knit bunch of gangs of thugs. Their excuse of 'defence' is and always was total crap.

It is fair to say he started to turn statesmanlike then.

140:

There's a long history of terrorists national liberation movement leaders becoming heads of state or prime ministers

George Washington and company, come to that. Aguinaldo in the Philippines. Would Cromwell fall into that category?

141:

And Henry II, son of the Empress Maud, one of the vying "candidates" for the English throne during The Anarchy .

142:

I would suggest that you are only a freedom fighter (and the thuggery even potentially justifiable) where the people struggling have no vote and where civilians are not deliberately targeted.

And yes, I believe the unionists were/are every bit as immoral and vile. They seem a particularly dumb, arrogant and nasty bunch - but without a steady stream of money and guns from the US, their military wings were less successful.

The Irish situation is also unusual, as the state NI would merge with, and be accommodated within, were the ones who convicted McGuinness - not the Brits.

143:

Charlie @ 134
McGuiness was an "Honourable Enemy" - when the war was over, it was OVER.
Can't say the same for Adams .....

Aquarion
Probably, very probably, you would kill of a lot of other things & people as well, so not a good idea.

144:

Without furthering the digression into Mr McGuinness's legacy, it might be better to classify him as having been ruthlessly pragmatic, with occasional twitches betraying the inner reality, like the point in the campaign when he labelled a critic a West Brit, not part of the usual cut and thrust of Dublin politics. Like all good revolutionaries he had faith that in the end his side would win and be writing the history in the long run. Based on the current state of political play in Ireland (Sinn Fein now the biggest party, still too small to win outright majority but doing well because of a pivot to a social justice platform), it may be working. But the whole North/South political situation past and present is enough to fill several blogs worth.

Presidents or monarchs, the principle of executive power residing separately to the legislature (and Boris is as yet still part of the latter, despite ongoing attempts to create a ‘pseudo-executive’) is surely entirely dependent on the rule of law applying, and being applied? We don’t have to look to colonial examples to see that failure state, we can start with Hindenburg and go from there. Real question is how do you strengthen that rule of law, however applied, surely? Not sure how to answer that one!

145:

I agree, and I agree with Grant about the unionist thugs. They were (and are) gangsters, almost pure and simple.

146:

Moz @ 122:

He's the only Pope in Rome.

147:

paws4thot @ 126:

Disneyland/Disneyworld is for children. If you're not a child you need to have children along so you can see the place through their eyes.

I visited California with my family when I was a child and we visited Disneyland.

Disneyworld wasn't built until after I came of age. I have no children of my own, so I have no reason to visit Disneyworld.

148:

There's a long history of terrorists national liberation movement leaders becoming heads of state

As I think Bernard Wolley said, its one of those irregular verbs: I'm a freedom fighter, you're a guerilla, he's a terrorist.

149:

Disneyland/Disneyworld is for children.

Not really. But well over 1/2 of it is. Some adults enjoy the big rides.

But it is not for everyone.

And the parents who eagerly go back once or twice a year for a week... I just don't get them at all.

150:

Single leaders being a critical point of failure... well, yes, but you do need someone to make decisions if two under them can't agree.

Actually, I have a perfect laboratory experiment to test this out: run an sf con, preferably large, without a Chair, or with two co-equal Chairs.

Of course, this is on my mind, having just completed Balticon this past weekend (Memorial Day weekend in the US). I hear that including virtual members (if was a hybrid con), we had over 1600 folks... and I assure you there were a lot of folks there in person.

151:

Except that, in all likelihood, Arthur was never a King, but a Dux Bellorum. I mean, really, would all the petty kings have chosen/allowed another King above them?

152:

But could they vote, once ennobled? And would they have the expectation of free political speech?

And, for fun, if they or their heirs fell below the $1B, would they then lost their nobility?

153:

I have an alternative suggestion: Liz wades into Tiffany Fountain, and hands a sword to whoever she's chosen.... This way we get abdication and ceremonies with a watery tart!

154:

Never saw Buckingham Palace when we were there, for the one and only time, in '14. Now, the British Museum....

155:

Somtow Sucharitkul, back in the day, used to say he was 223rd in line for the Thai royal throne.

156:

Paintings? You mean like all the pics of The Former Guy in front of the Great Seal of the US, making it look like a halo?

157:

I've seen a report or two that Putin would get annoyed with the Former Guy, because he had to keep explaining things to him (the FG).

158:

I saw you typed "perfidious Albacon", which I wondered was a local sf con, but then my mind drifted to "perfidious albacore", and wondered what the tuna had done.

Oh, and it's "Lost Wages".

159:

I'd second going to the Air and Space Museum in downtown DC. I went to the Udvar-Hazy annex once. I hadn't known the Enola Gay was there, and I don't ever want to see it again.

160:

The Former Guy and his wife were both upset by this - suddenly, they're in a bubble, with no way out. No way to just go to a store, or a restaurant, or....

161:

On the other hand, they were (and are) making a profit off the Secret Service guards…

162:

The pretext of reviewing Tina Brown's The Palace Papers, allows the London Review of Books to do a take-down of the Windsors specifically, and the monarchy generally, with the cuttingist damning via language w/o ever once resorting to obscenity or vulgarism -- other than references/quotes from the royal inner circle, which does so resort, quoting the coarsest, most sexist, of vulgariity and vulgarism, words, actions and things, which are never spoken of, or in, public. The most nasty are employed for discussing women -- of course. This LRB slicing and dicing is accomplished in a manner and mode of malice that only the English can summon.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v44/n11/jonathan-meades/hatpin-through-the-brain

163:

I saw that, it was quite impressively done. They managed a decent go at Harry as well, but yeah, most of the ire was about things women do rather than what Harry is (thick).

164:

My thought was, "yes, nicely done. I wonder how much the Firm paid them to write this?" After all, a book about how boring and honest they were wouldn't sell as well, now, would it?

Actually, one could do quite a vicious satire where the Royals all have their personae that they adopt as reality performers, and behind the scenes they're as normal a bunch of actors as you'd expect for any 24/7 reality show. But since much of their revenue comes from licensing fees, their show must go on.

Slightly more seriously, one could speculate that if the British Royals were normal, hardworking, and only did the boring ceremonial stuff, they'd get pitched out in favor of someone more gossip-worthy. Perhaps being gossiped about is part of the job?

165:

I get the impression from reading about the fallout of reality TV shows, and occasional whining from famous people, that being in the public eye isn't as much fun as credulous morons think it is. That sort of pressure inevitably leads to more inter-personal issues than would be the case without it, even leaving aside the born to rule inbred stuff that the british royal family suffer from.

I'm quite serious when I suggest they would be better of looking outside Europe for breeding stock. There's lots of spare royalty in Polynesia, for example, and a traditional bride exchange or two would no doubt help both sides. genetically, if not in the eyes of the Daily Heil.

166:

148 - You like Bernard's irregular verbs too then. :-)

149 - That was at least "sort of" my point. Visiting a theme park can be fun, but it depends on the feelings you have on the way home.

150 - Well, Charlie and I have attended an Eastercon run by the Sofa (self-renamed) and her husband (sometimes addressed as the Layzee-Boy). I can't remember if Nojay was at that one or not.

154 - The British Museum is way more worthwhile than the state rooms in Buck House.

158 - Albacon - Local SF con in that it was always Easter or Glasgow Fair weekend, in the same (Glasgow Central hotel) venue. Not so local in that the membership tended to be a similar head count to Eastercon.

167:

Never mind the monarchy, they are "mostly harmless" ... What about Abolishing Elon Musk? - whatever his firms technical achievements, he appears to be 120% arsehole.

168:

I agree with Greg at 43. We have much more pressing issues to deal with. No issue is more likely to make “progressives” deeply unpopular than threatening to upend the our national identity. Clearly, fuck the monarchy and the have to go, but I’m not getting worked up about it now. Especially when we can take the Norway option, keep them around as a much cheaper and less intrusive heirloom, and do something about the matters of substance.

Were one to argue that getting rid of the royals is a prerequisite for real change, then one is abandoning Hope of actually effecting such change.

169:

There is, or at least was in the past, an Albacon held in the United States somewhere. Albany perhaps?

170:

Maybe the solution is along the suggestion in a short story “Philosopher’s Stone” by Christopher Anvil,

1) Nobility and social rank are pushed as worthy of attainment.

2) Rank in nobility is not passed on directly to the male heir, but is instead dropped two ranks. “The son of a duke becomes an earl.”

3) And the way to bump your rank up is to “bring a useful invention to prominence.” This is not to say to invent something… but to be the guy who brought Invention X to the world stage and made it go.

This system means that social climbing is done by advancing the state of the art. Families that don’t do well at that fall out of the nobility; families that do well at that keep their station, or advance upwards. But one need not be an inventor… only have the wisdom to see the value in an invention, and have the wherewithal to bring the technology not only to market, but to make it a world-beater.

I have borrowed this description from a blog on up-ship.com p=8496 as it said exactly what I wanted to say.

And the story is in the collection Analog Two edited by John W, Campbell.

171:

What about Abolishing Elon Musk? - whatever his firms technical achievements, he appears to be 120% arsehole.

No question about it. He's now requiring Tesla and SpaceX employees to work at least 40 hours a week in an office or be fired. Even though U.S. Covid cases are higher now than they were a year ago...

172:

Problem: that system would promote Elon Musk. Or even Donald Trump. Are you sure that's what you want to achieve?

173:

I'm not sure what inventions Donald Trump has pushed forward, but consider the source - a John W. Campbell anthology. (He was the racist editor who approved of "psychic" as a category in science fiction. You probably know that, but other readers may not. He was also the editor for whom Heinlein wrote the books/stories which resulted in him being called "racist," in which he was either catering to Campbell's racism or even writing to a plot from Campbell.*)

Maybe instead we can ennoble the people who contributed somehow to creating more freedom and dignity for Joe Average.

* Farnham's Freehold may be the exception to this. By all accounts it was Swiftian Satire gong wrong.

174:

I'm quite serious when I suggest they would be better of looking outside Europe for breeding stock. There's lots of spare royalty in Polynesia, for example, and a traditional bride exchange or two would no doubt help both sides. genetically, if not in the eyes of the Daily Heil.

We've already got Meghan Markle, who's African American. As you can see, it's working out quite well.

As for being celebrities, yes, it's less fun than it looks to be from the outside. I think that's true of most jobs?

Anyway, for fun, let's contemplate some other possibilities for getting scandal out of government.

Would, say, scrapping the UK monarchy entirely rid the British government of scandals? Erm, do we have to talk about 10 Downing Street again?

How about a meritocracy, where the leader is chosen Roman style, raised from among a senate of senior officials as the best one available to deal with current crises. Would that system be free of...Oh wait, we'd better check the Vatican before I finish that sentence.

How about flipping it, and letting the leader have as many relationships as he wants? Maybe that'll prevent scandal. Unfortunately, this page is under UK law, so just google FLDS Church to keep Charlie out of trouble. Don't share what you find here

Okay, so maybe we couple the meritocracy with decades of training in meditation. No, I better not google "Buddhist sex scandal." Oh no...

Maybe it's something we inherit? What happens when we search on Chimpanzee sexual politics?....I was afraid of that.

I think what this shows is that Buddhism's First Noble Truth, that life is unsatisfactory, isn't just some rando trying to sound profound.

175:

Back up-thread, someone was disappointed with a tour of Buck House ... What you SHOULD go & see, if there's a good one on, is an exhibition in "The Queen's Gallery" - Where (usually) objets d'art from the Royal Collections are put on public display. And other items, of course if they are in tune with the theme of the exhibition.
Someone I know has just been to this one
IIRC something like 80% of the exhibits ( In this particualr show ) have not been displayed in living memory - I'm told it's well worth it.
I've been to a couple & they were good. But then London has a lot of good Art Galleries & Exhibitions & the "Queens" is well up to the standard expected ....

176:

I am in awe of the author. Slicing, dicing, cubing, and chiffonading the subjects.... Their knife must have a monofiliment blade an atom thick to be that sharp.

177:

Sorry, no. That gets down on its knees and begs for someone who's downrated to defraud, steal, or outright murder someone who's done or found something useful, and present it as their own.

178:

whitroth
Like Edison, did, you mean?

179:

As frustrating as it is, some form of democratic feedback system is so far the best option we have for a functioning societal leadership process.

Flawed and awful, but better than all the other options so far. That said, if the Culture were to make contact I'd be an enthusiastic joiner.

180:

Presumably someone's already doing this, but I don't know the search terms.

Anyway, it would be interesting to set up a machine learning simulation to figure out which form(s) of government best weather which types of stresses.

For example, in an emergency or war, a hierarchical command structure, with decision making abilities up and down the chain of command, seems to work best. It's fast but unstable, because the results depend on the initiative and appropriate genius of those making the decisions. This is generalizing off the successes of maneuver warfare, combined arms, and incident command.

But this type of authoritarian structure isn't universally good. In the military, it generally fails against insurgencies, and if anyone knows how to do counterinsurgencies, they're keeping it under wraps. In non-emergency situations, the people in charge become the foci of corruption efforts as others seek power and wealth, with utterly predictable results. Worse, children generally don't inherit genius, so the transition of authority from one powerful person to another, unrelated, powerful person is always going to be fraught and possibly lethal (see succession wars). Holding a Game of Thrones among potential candidates pretty much guarantees a civil war every time the apex ruler dies.

Democracy is good in that it can provide a powerful, but nonlethal, form of feedback between the ruled and the rulers. It can, of course, be hacked in all sorts of ways. It's also slower than authoritarian rule, and it's vulnerable to public opinions that may have little to do with reality.

Heterarchies try to set up checks and balances to keep any one power group from taking over and messing things up. These aren't limited to court, executive, and legislative, but may also include military powers, financial magnates, merchants, religions, large landowners, etc. My suspicion is that making a working heterarchy takes a lot of work, and like any complex structure confronted by the fact that reality constantly changes, it requires more or less continual readjustment to maintain the balance of power and eventually fails when it can't cope with some problem.

Anyway, it's probably possible to for an AI start gaming out systems to figure out which ones work better, evolving the winners of each round to see if some system will tend to work better, especially when confronted with the challenges we now face. My guess is that the best system is some sort of heterarchy more checked and balanced than we have in the US (we need to accommodate financial and information systems much better), that can afford to train first responders, and that can rapidly unleash them in emergencies of all sorts without having any emergency industrial complex take over the heterarchy. Tailoring this sort of handwaving to a couple of hundred different countries is, of course, non-trivial.

181:

H
and if anyone knows how to do counterinsurgencies, they're keeping it under wraps
Or rather the USA & the French are simply ignoring it, because it's too embarrassing?
Malaysian Emergency is the phrase to use.

Meanwhile, it has been pointed out that HM's Coronation was 69 years ago - today.
I remember it, if only because my mother insisted we got a TV to watch it.
{ Interesting social history thought there - we were the first household in our street to get a TV - & the first to give it up as a waste of time. }

182:

"IT AIN'T BROKE - DON'T FIX IT"

I agree. The objections to it are all failures of sense of proportion and/or false assumptions of uniqueness.

So kids in other countries can be told "you could grow up to be president" whereas kids in this country can't be told "you could grow up to be monarch"... so who gives a shit? Kids in this country can still be told "you could grow up to be prime minister", which in practical terms is the same thing as "president" (and "monarch" is not), and it's a bloody silly thing to say in any case since nobody ever follows it with "...but the chances are millions to one against it and you're a lot more likely to win the lottery, so you might as well forget about it", which is required to convey a realistic appreciation of the situation. As an objection to... well, to anything really, it's ridiculously trivial, and as a justification for extreme upheaval on a national scale it's nowhere in sight.

As for the idea that eliminating the monarchy would be beneficial regarding corruption in politics, it's simply a bad joke. It would naturally eliminate corruption by the monarchy, but it would equally naturally introduce corruption by whatever replaced it. (It is also extremely likely that whoever replaced it would have far more reasons to be far more corrupt than someone who is inherently isolated from all the competitive shite that comes with a political position not being hereditary and lifelong.)

I could carry on for ages, but I would both be repeating the same arguments in slightly different forms for each point and also be repeating opinions I have previously stated on here when the subject has come up before, so I won't bother.

I am not remotely any kind of monarchy enthusiast in the tabloid sense. If I was going to hang a picture of any ruler at all on my wall I'd think first of Lenin and then of Lincoln before I thought of Liz. I don't give a fuck about the junketings planned for this weekend and intend to avoid them entirely.

But I do object to the idea of throwing away centuries of historical tradition for a mere whim. I live in a city which has a good 800 years or so of relics associated with defanging the monarchy, and people who would look at the political setup we have now and say "so what's your problem with the monarchy then? It's the clown with the hair who wants his head chopping off."

I don't care that Britain doesn't meet some theoretical definition of a "democratic country" because although everyone has the vote it still has a monarch. I do care that it's shit as a "democratic country" because it has a fucking useless electoral system under which most people's votes don't count. It's not another Oliver Cromwell that we're missing, it's closer to needing another Guido Fawkes.

183:

"they can't step outside their properties without first arranging (at the very least) a police escort."

Phil the Greek used to evade them on purpose and sneak out on his own, which I thought was rather neat.

184:

"Las Vegas (I get to go to the area on personal business every now and then) is where my daughter learned what "over the top" means."

You have WW1 re-enactments in Las Vegas? I didn't think there was enough mud.

There is a nuke museum there, which as far as I'm concerned is the only thing that removes it from the list of "absolutely no reason to want to go there ever" places.

We have an SR-71 at Duxford, and you can actually reach up and stroke its tummy. Titanium is a very strange feeling substance.

185:

Kids in this country can still be told "you could grow up to be prime minister", which in practical terms is the same thing as "president" (and "monarch" is not), and it's a bloody silly thing to say in any case since nobody ever follows it with "...but the chances are millions to one against it and you're a lot more likely to win the lottery, so you might as well forget about it", Unless they are being sent to Eton, in which case the odds improve by several orders of magnitude.

186:

Quite. Which is not a problem that would be affected by abolishing the monarchy, but could at least be somewhat mitigated by abolishing Eton.

187:

WWI reenactments? No. Over the top... I've seen bits and pieces of videos of shows at Lost Wages, and "over the top" is not an exaggeration.

188:

Maybe it's something we inherit? What happens when we search on Chimpanzee sexual politics?....I was afraid of that.

I'd prefer the sexual politics of bonobos, myself...

189:

I grew up with a TV. But we had 2 then 3 channels. Which is different from the UK 50s/60s AIUI. We were rural so no independents. (I remember when the ABC affiliate came online.) Big B&W died just before we sold our house and moved to a temp tiny house while building new one. Got a 13" B&W. (1967 I think.) It had a part go bad which made it blank out a times. And part was apparently made in small home shop in Japan somewhere and they only made a batch once a year or similar. (Supply chain issues anyone?) Anyway we moved into new big house but still with 13" B&W that would blank out more and more often. Then it got to be July 1969. We told our parents we were going to go stay with friends/neighbors for the duration if we didn't get a TV that worked. Dad got a 20" color (portable) a week before and so we stayed home.

190:

"Las Vegas (I get to go to the area on personal business every now and then) is where my daughter learned what "over the top" means."

You have WW1 re-enactments in Las Vegas? I didn't think there was enough mud.

In Merican slang "over the top" means way past what is needed.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/over-the-top

191:

In Merican slang "over the top" means way past what is needed.

Same in the UK. Origin is putatively from trench warfare human wave attacks with soldiers going "over the top" of the trench parapets in their thousands.

192:

To a bit more detail she was about 9 or 10 at the time. She asked me as we were leaving the airport (first thing you see is the Hard Rock 50' tall guitar) what is the big deal about Las Vegas. I had trouble explaining it.

Later when we were killing time before a red-eye flight out I drove down the strip after dark. Volcano going off, pirates attacking a ship, a Pyramid lighting up the sky, a gazillion people in the streets, Eiffel tower up ahead, ....

Suddenly she pipes up "Daddy I know what over the top means".

193:

I spent 4 days in Las Vegas at a hockey tournament my son was playing in. It was about 3.5 days too many (I am allowing 0.5 days for the hockey, the Cirque du Soleil, and an excellent meal).

I left the place feeling nauseated at the soul crushing sadness of exiting your hotel room at 6 am for a (sport) game and passing hundreds of punters sitting at slot machines with blank expressions. No joy, no fun, just pushing the button over and over.

I will never return unless a close family member moves there for some presently unimaginable reason.

194:

184 - Sadly the Duxford Habu is engineless, but it still gives me a stronger "hair on my neck" reaction than either the BUFF (in the same building) or the Vulcan.

187 - I don't see the issue; "over the top" and WW1 Western Front reenactments seen very related to me.

192 - But they're not real (well except maybe the people).

195:

I will never return unless a close family member moves there for some presently unimaginable reason.

There is a collection of very high aptitude very smart people with very high security clearances who live in that area. They are a strange mix of folk.

196:

Saw that in the hotel my recent ex and I stayed in during the Reno Worldcon in '10. You had to walk through it to get in or out. Horrid.

And then there was the "taste". I think we were in the Peppermill. Walking up to it, there are painted faux-Roman statues on the marquis. Inside, if you walked down a hall long enough, you saw the same half a dozen or so 50's imitation of Napoleonic imitation Roman paintings.

And my then-14 stepson thought it was unbelievably tacky to have a large frame on the wall, faux=Louis XIV... with a flat screen TV in it, with about a 6cm gap around the TV inside the frame.

197:

So, I have some family that lives in Vegas, and I have never stayed there. We stay at a little motel outside Boulder City that has a nice view of Lake Mead, only about 30-40 minutes from the strip (and the airport) if you feel a need to go there.

Fun things that are nearby: Hoover Dam, Lake Mead (for now), Death Valley is only an hour or two away, as is the Valley of Fire (because of the color of the rocks). We also walk a trail (and old train bed with tunnels) from a nearby casino/hotel down to Hover Dam (I think it is about 3 miles). (Boulder City was built when they were building the Dam). Neat stores in BC: "Goat Feathers" (thrift store), and "Dead Cows for Sale" (Leather goods). There is also a train museum and (short) historical train ride. The same area has a very long zipline if you are into that sort of thing. You can also see the wild ram horn sheep and coyotes hanging around if that interests you.

(It was interesting to me that Lake Mead to Death Valley is basically old volcano country, lots of cinder cones around)

The only things I've gone to in Vegas are the Monterey Bay Aquarium (yes, in the middle of the desert) and the Zoo in (I think) the MGM.

Now, if they had built the Enterprise, I would have been there, but the head of Paramount nixed that....

198:

I think my kids would both fit two of those qualifications. However they are Canadian and probably wouldn't fit the third. Worst case they go live in Ottawa (which is a very fine city).

199:

I went to Las Vegas in the 80's. Accompanied my mum who was going to a conference. Collected some great memories. Really amazing approach and landing. I swear they applied reverse pitch while we were 5000 up. I've never had to hold myself up with the seat in front before. I was hanging off the belt. Absolutely the steepest approach I've ever had in any aircraft. The landing was just as spectacular with a cross wind that I'm also sure exceeded the demonstrated. Came in hot and sideways and just hammered that rudder at the last second. Nearly blown off the stairs when I got off. Had to go back and complement the pilots. I hadn't realised how strong the cross was.

We saw tumble weeds on the drive in from the airport. I couldn't have been more amazed if they'd had stage trees. Tumble weeds are something from fiction. Seeing a real plant that evolved into a sphere to distribute seeds... Mind blown.

The actual town was shit.

200:

Vegas is fine (and a little boring) once you get off the strip - the people there are very nice.

201:

We saw tumble weeds on the drive in from the airport. I couldn't have been more amazed if they'd had stage trees. Tumble weeds are something from fiction. Seeing a real plant that evolved into a sphere to distribute seeds... Mind blown.

A cousin used to live in So Cal and would talk about the collective action of those. They would pile up against your yard fence till they made a ramp for the next group to arrive and roll up and over your fence. The goal being to fill your pool with a soggy mess that was a royal PITA to clean out.

He thought that maybe the chlorine was a "strange attractor".

202:

197 - ? I live in old volcanic country. 2 Basalt plugs from extinct caldrera, and a lamilar basaltic flow within less than 2 miles of the front door.

199 - I see your point; I've been in some high crosswind landings before, and ones where the total landing run was about 2_000 feet of a 4_000 foot runway.

200 - "Off Strip" Lost Vegas is basically tract suburbia built in a desert.

203:

RE: Vegas. Being the snotty environmentalist I am, I've been known to get gas in California and/or Utah so that I can drive straight through Vegas without stopping. I suspect Cirque du Soleil and Penn and Teller are worth stopping for, but Vegas is such a monument to civilization as the all-devouring flame that I really don't want to give it any money. As with most of the cities that depend on the Colorado River, I think anyone who's planning on settling in Vegas long term needs to be realistic about what "long term" might mean.

So far as tumbleweeds go: aren't they cool? Now that you've met them, you can learn more. Tumbleweeds aren't a species, they're a life form, with about 10 different plant families having evolved tumbleweed species independently, and something like 50 different tumble-species.

204:

Think you're mixing domestic and foreign tourist interest here, and like all tourist revenue the vast bulk is generated from domestic tourism

JBS and I are just commenting on the crazy fascination in the US with the British monarchy. I'd say 1/2 of the tourists from the US might not go without the monarchy.

205:

A side-effect is that laws apply to everyone and everything below the Crown, not including the Crown itself—or, presumably, its 95 year old wearer. So far we've lucked out because EIIR seems to be nothing if not law-abiding

Except that’s not particularly true, is it. The Queen, and Charles as heir, have the right to demand consultation and a power of amendment on any law which would impinge on the Monarchy. This is done in secret, without reference to Parliament, and they use it exceedingly often, over 1,000 times since the beginning of her reign.

Now a lot of it is pretty standard stuff, consultation on the right of council inspectors to enter crown lands and such, but some of it is deeply worrying. Such as the exemption herself and Charles carved out for Royal employees from the provisions of the Parental Rights Act. Or the fact that clean water and land management regulations don’t apply to crown lands. Or that the Monarchy isn’t bound by the provisions of the Sex Discrimination Act 1975, or the Equality Act 2010.

And those aren’t just exemptions because of the unique way the head of the organisation is selected, by the way, those refer to the Monarchy as employers, so none of their staff are protected from discrimination.

Brenda and Keith interfere in political matters all the time, when it suits them or their interests, and the current system can’t come to an end quickly enough.

206:

It appears that they're the crab of the plant world!

207:

Anvil had some fun with science-fictional monarchies. In "The Troublemaker" a planet's ruled by an absolute monarchy (with the King and the nobility being volunteers who serve for a fixed term). All the people have implants in their nervous system that transmit pain from the ruled to the rulers. It gives the rulers a certain motivation to attend to their subjects' needs. (Oh, and if the rulers even think about finding a way to bypass the system, the pain transmitters activate at full power).

208:

It appears that they're the crab of the plant world!

Yes and no. The thing underlying the whole crab meme is this really cool phenomenon called convergent evolution. A bunch of unrelated crustaceans develop body plans that humans read as "crab." Birds, bats, pterosaurs, and insects independently evolve functioning wings. Fish, ichthyosaurs, dolphins, and seals figure out how to swim by waggling the ends of their spines.

Plants....do convergence so much better than animals do.

There are annual plants, all of which evolved from perennial ancestors, because sometimes it's better for your tiny babies to reproduce as fast as possible, rather than trying to survive for even a year.

There are trees, because height is the way you battle for light is by growing over the top of your competitors.

There are vines, because one of the best ways to win the battle for light against a tree is to climb the tree and grow on top of it.

There are aquatic plants, because going back to the water isn't just for platypuses and seals.

And then it gets fun. A bamboo is what happens when a perennial, terrestrial herb that evolved from a tree (how we got angiosperms from conifers) goes into the water (primitive monocots are mostly marsh and pond plants), re-evolves new leaves and piping to grow on land again as a perennial herb (grass), then evolves a new way to grow huge to become a tree. That might sound weird, but palm trees (also monocots) did the same thing, only better.

And then you get cases where a shrub becomes an annual becomes a perennial becomes a shrub. That's how the silversword alliance in Hawai'i happened. Their ancestors were tarweeds from California. That may sound weird, but it's not the only one. There's a tree thistle in the Canary Islands, for example.

So far as tumbleweeds being the crabs of the plant world goes, that's about right. There appear to be around seven separate lineages of crustaceans that evolved crab-like forms, and there are about ten separate plant lineages that evolved tumbleweeds. But most/all tumbleweeds are annual plants, and the annual lifestyle seems to have evolved in many (most?) major groups of plants. There's even an annual conifer, known as a fossil from the Triassic. I'm not sure whether annuals evolved dozens or hundreds of times, because there are large chunks of the world where "live fast and die young after a crazed orgy" is a viable strategy. If you're a plant.

This is why people like me get sucked into the plant world. Some thing really are better with plants.

209:

Since we're not at 300, I'll tie my paean to plants back to politics, by comparing Roman leaders to, well, shrubbery.

Ancient Rome had seven or eight kings. Then in 509 BCE or so, the Romans had had enough, and AFAIK did a general strike, threw out the king (Rex) and implemented a monarchy. They did appoint dictators to deal with emergencies, but these were sort of like annual kings, given king-like powers for a short time to fight a war or whatever. This worked really well until the last century BCE, when unscrupulous politicians began corrupting the power of the dictatorship (and fighting civil wars over it), until Julius Caesar stuck the landing, and then Augustus Caesar, as "princeps" made it work as an authoritarian dictatorship again. But they were Caesars or Imperators, not Rex. The western empire is generally regarded to have fallen when a "barbarian" (probably actually a Romanized immigrant from somewhere who capitalized on his military service to take over) is called "Rex" in a letter that survived to our day.

Politics doesn't really evolve, but the formation of similar political systems under different names over time has some interesting similarities to the way plants evolve. Plants, structurally, are more like human corporations than like animals, in that for many perennial plants, losing a branch is like a corporation closing up a location, rather than a human losing an arm. So this similarity might not be entirely spurious.

210:

I live in old volcanic country. 2 Basalt plugs from extinct caldrera,

An old vulcanologist joke goes "What's the difference between extinct and dormant? Wishful thinking."

211:

My one landing in Las Vegas was summertime, a bright sunny early afternoon in the mid-1990s. We came in, normal approach, crossed the outer threshold and I waited for the Thump! as the wheels touched down. And waited. And waited... and then THUMP!!! and the reversers screamed and the plane juddered as (I presume) the front office staff were standing on the brake pedals as hard as they could and then we took the last turnoff on the runway with, I swear, the inner wing lifting from centripetal forces.

Reverse-engineering the experience I figured the heated air lifting off the runway tarmac was keeping the plane in ground-effect for half the strip and unable to actually touch down in good time. Fun experience, not.

Las Vegas itself, meh. I stayed off-strip, went walking out around the State University area in a vain attempt to find a sidewalk and got followed by a police car as a Suspicious Pedestrian. The town was typified by an exhibit in the airport, a big stainless steel dish with four million quarters in it right next to the one-armed bandits in the baggage collection area.

212:

The distinctions you refer to are pretty vague, anyway. Lots of plants vary between annual and perennial, shrub and tree, and even herbaceous and woody, depending on conditions. Also, in climates like the humid tropics, annual is pretty meaningless.

213:

Well, they last erupted in the Carboniferous, so I doubt I shall see a repetition :-)

214:

Read Limbo, by Wolfe. The higher you go in the government, the more limbs you lose. At the top, you're helpless, utterly dependent on others.

215:

Rome had stopped using dictators for quite awhile when Sulla adopted the term. The Republic had evolved beyond the need for dictators, probably because emergencies moved away from Rome and Italy as they expanded so there was time for the normal political process. Sulla was trying to cash in on the legitimacy of a defunct institution.

216:

I'm unsure why Charlie has such a miserablist position over the Jubilee; there's so much to enjoy about this Platinum Jubilee!

For a reply to Jonathon Meades' article[1], we have Marina Hyde in the Guardian: here. The Kardashian's failing to crash the party: priceless.

Then, following up on some of the comments below Marina's article, we discover that the patriotic crowd outside Westminster Abbey booing the Priime Minister: here. Note they didn't do this to any other politicians. Wonderful!

Then, we can point out Mr Putin's reaction to having his military display over -shadowed: here. He didn't mention that 275 British Army horses appeared -- rather more than the number of Challenger tanks!

Then we have the local entertainment here in Manchester: a street party with three bands (all living in the street of about 50 houses -- some student lets). I'd pay good money to see two of them.

What's not to like?

[1] Jonathon Meades: a posh and literate British shock jock. Enjoyable in small doses.

217:

I adore Marinna Hyde. Around the time I first discovered her, I wrote her a non-mash note, and she thanked me for it.

218:

I'd say 1/2 of the tourists from the US might not go without the monarchy.

In the several times we USians have been in the UK as tourists and semi-tourists(*), we've never, ever, given any consideration to scoping out the Monarchy. British Museum, Tate Gallery, various other museums, bookstores, shops, restaurants and suchlike yes. The Monarchy from our viewpoint is amusing, but not worth a visit.(**)

(*) There for other reasons, but had/took some time to tour around.
(**) But I have to admit that those red military tunics are very cool.

219:

210 - Are you seriously trying to tell me that the volcanic plug of Dumbuckhill Quarry is anything other than extinct as a volcano?

213 - I'm pretty sure that's correct yes. Certainly it's long enough ago for the cone to have eroded away leaving a basalt core that is also eroded (quite aside from Dumbuckhill having been quarried for the last 60-odd years and still being 150 feet AMSL at its lowest points on the working area).

216 - I watched about 1.5 hours of the English Broadcasting Corporation's morning "news" on Thursday, during which I learnt that Naga Munchetty[1] possesses at least one good Winter coat, got to play with an explosives sniffer dog outside Buck House, and one of the "reporters" had not had his fingers eaten whilst feeding a carrot to a horse. You start to understand our objections now?

[1] Real journalist and news anchor, who is very good at holding politicians' feet to the fire during interviews.

220:

In the several times we USians have been in the UK as tourists and semi-tourists(*), we've never, ever, given any consideration to scoping out the Monarchy. British Museum, Tate Gallery, various other museums, bookstores, shops, restaurants and suchlike yes. The Monarchy from our viewpoint is amusing, but not worth a visit.

Also me. My wife and I starting trying to visit 3 years ago. But weather (long story) and the pandemic stopped us. We will likely go in the next year or two. The various monarchy bits are well down our list of things to see. But you and I are not typical Merican's in that regard. I know a lot of folks who've been and their primary reason was to see bits of the monarchy.

Me, I want to wander around London, visit the museums, see if my father WWII airbase is a field or nail salon or whatnot, etc...

And the facination with Princess D is unreal. Still to this day. Michael Lewis just told a Princess D story on C-Span the other day. [eye roll]

221:
I watched about 1.5 hours of the English Broadcasting Corporation's morning "news" on Thursday, during which I learnt that Naga Munchetty[...]

Well, that's an hour and a half you'll not get back again. Couldn't you have found something better to do? I put in a couple of hours in the allotment, and certainly don't intend to actually watch any of the coverage.

222:

Princess Di. Marilyn.

They're dead, get over it, is my response.

223:

Oh, and the ship sank.

On the other hand, I read there's a new claimant for the throne... https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/kitchener/2022/6/2/1_5929806.html

224:

Took me awhile to figure out what the "watery tart system" for creating supreme executive power was. Reason is that I'd just read about a rather different watery tart.

Ah well.

My favorite version of the sword of heaven is rather different.

225:

"I watched about 1.5 hours of the English Broadcasting Corporation's morning "news" on Thursday, during which I learnt that Naga Munchetty[1] possesses at least one good Winter coat, got to play with an explosives sniffer dog outside Buck House, and one of the "reporters" had not had his fingers eaten whilst feeding a carrot to a horse. You start to understand our objections now?"

No, not really. Sounds like typical BBC TV news all the bloody time. If they'd bring back John Craven's Newsround it would be more informative than the "adult" news is these days.

226:

Heteromeles @ 180:

I do like the way the U.S. is set up vis-a-vis the military with a hierarchical command structure that does what it does best, but the government that wields the military is semi-democratically elected. The decision whether to go to war or not is best left in the hands of an elected government and the elected government sets over-all strategic objectives, while the military is tasked with finding the best way to achieve those objectives.

I'm also pleased the U.S. military chose to opt-out of our most recent but one government's flirtation with totalitarianism. I'm encouraged they found a way to discourage someone from issuing unlawful orders, so they didn't have to confront the government by refusing to violate the Constitution.

I hope if the U.K. does abolish the monarchy, whatever takes its place will have a vigorous mechanism for thwarting would-be totalitarians.

227:

Greg Tingey @ 181:

The Wire is Hungry! [YouTube] Doctor Who.

228:

Starch-thickened water tarts lasted in the UK until well into my adulthood - mostly commercial ones! To people in the UK, the oldest of whom remember serious shortages, the idea of butter being plentiful and apples unavailable is simply mind-boggling.

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/croome/recipes/wartime-carrot-cake

Thr watery tart reference is OGH's - I am surprised that you haven't seen it before. It's amusing, but not actually relevant to our current monarchy, where the English component derives from the right of conquest by William the Bastard. Arthur was probably a myth.

229:

Pigeon @ 183:

"they can't step outside their properties without first arranging (at the very least) a police escort.""they can't step outside their properties without first arranging (at the very least) a police escort."

Phil the Greek used to evade them on purpose and sneak out on his own, which I thought was rather neat.

Oddly enough, so did the Bush twins.

230:
Oddly enough, so did the Bush twins.

But did they drive a taxi around town, like Phil did?

That would have been a great tale if they drove around Manhattan cursing and swearing like the local cabbies!

231:

Charlie Stross @ 191:

In Merican slang "over the top" means way past what is needed.

Same in the UK. Origin is putatively from trench warfare human wave attacks with soldiers going "over the top" of the trench parapets in their thousands.

I believe in this instance the appropriate response to Pigeon's comment would have been:

"Pull the other one, it's got bells on."

232:

David L replied @ 201:

Tumbleweeds are iconic in the American West, but they're not a native plant. They're an extremely invasive & damaging species.

The Trouble With Tumbleweed [YouTube] CGP Grey

AKA "Russian Thistle"

233:

If your father’s airbase was in East Anglia take the time to visit Norwich, Britain’s most complete medieval city.

234:

220 - If you have an airfield name, there's a good chance that someone here will either know, or at least know where to look.

221 - True; that said I did multi-task with having breakfast and reading a magazine. My complaint was that there was stuff other than Lillibet's "official birthday" happening in places other than Larndarnshire. So far, the closest I've come to "Jubilee Sillybrations" (sic) is watching a documentary on Moly and the 2022 TT preview show during dialysis karaoke (dialysis essential to life, and karaoke sort of unavoidable as a result).

226 - I've read way too many Vietnam War histories and biographies (including things like "Giap" and "The Tunnels of Cu Chi", not just stuff by US military who served there) to think that politicritters should be allowed to task military forces on any level lower than "defeat North Vietnam".

228 - Actually, references to "watery tarts" and "moistened bints" are taken from the comedy (film and book) "Monty Python and the Holy Grail". (strongly recommended to anyone who is even intermittently amused by this here blog)

233 - See Norwich, and raise York.

235:

David L @ 220:

I don't really care about the Royal Family that much one way or the other, but if you don't have the "Queen's Birthday" (or eventually the King's birthday) would there still be a reason for this? ... which I do enjoy & would like to see in person:

Updated Trooping the Colour 2022 | March to and from Horse Guards Parade [YouTube] ... especially at 13:40, that would be a thrill of a lifetime.

Also on my bucket list: How you gonna' have a Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo if you do away with the royals?

Without the monarchy would they still have the Changing of the Guard at Windsor Castle? The pageantry and the ceremony are what I'm thinking about when I mention "royal" tourism.

236:

Heteromeles @ 224:

I recognized it immediately. I was kind of surprised you missed it.

237:

Dave Lester @ 230:

AFAIK, they just went out honky-tonkin; doing the same things most under-age drinkers did then and now.

238:

David L
It is extremely likely that your dad's WWII airbase is now ploughed fields .... - see also Paws @ 234

239:

I recognized it immediately. I was kind of surprised you missed it.

As noted, I'd just read the Atlas Obscura article on water tarts, so that's what I thought of, not naiadonoxiphocracies.

240:

235 - The "Changing the Guard" ceremony happens "wherever the monarch is residing" if at all. It moved from Buck House to Windsor Castle with the Queen's decision to change her principle residence following Philip the Greek's death.

238 - Hence why I asked. I know of "WW2 Airfields" which are now civilian airports, are still military airfields, are motor racing circuits, have been returned to agriculture, are housing developments or business developments...

241:

There’s a reasonable chance that the airbase is now an industrial estate.

242:

Place I used to work was a WWII airfield with the runways turned into roads and car parks or built over. It's still in existence but plane landings are highly contra-indicated and indeed flyovers by, say, gliders and light aviation are also frowned upon.

AWRE Aldermaston.

243:

You don't need mud — electrons will do:

https://www.warmuseum.ca/overthetop/

Outside of history, I've most often encountered "over the top" describing going past the point of no return, where one has no choice but to keep going forward. Like "crossing the Rubicon" without the classical allusions.

Come to think of it, that use of "over the top" may well allude to WWI — you might survive an attack, but not attacking meant a court martial and firing squad, so you went forward…

244:

Whereas here in Aotearoa, I've pretty much only seen it as "to excess", frequently with an implication of "and that's the main, or even only, thing wrong with it."

JHomes

245:

I was trying to not mention "The Leaky Establishment".

246:

The problem with Marina Hyde is that IIRC she's a TERF. (It's endemic in The Guardian's editorial team.)

Kind of spoils it, like discovering your favourite satirist enjoys dressing up in white robes with a pointy hood and burning artisanal woodwork on other folks' lawns at the weekend.

247:

I did a quick google, and I'm not finding the evidence on Marina Hyde. I'm not going to defend her or call for more evidence, but it's your blog, and you know the UK libel law better than I do. Presumably there is evidence, not just rumor or guilt by association?

Remember also that people operating under the KKK name have done things that would get them labeled as terrorists in most parts of the world. Accusing someone of being embracing that level of hate is a non-trivial accusation, if you don't have a 1st amendment shield.

248:

Marina Hyde?
TERF?
Seriously, I'm not familiar with the name or the acronym.

249:

I'm going by the content of one of her columns, from memory. Caveat: my memory is shit and I might have confused her with another columnist ... but The Guardian is 80% TERFs by volume these days, so I fear not.

250:

A cursory search reveals nothing online which would indicate she is a terf, with one exception, which is on reddit, and seems to conclude she's probably not.

https://www.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/4kq4qy/is_marina_diamondis_a_terf/

251:

And in the UK. I have seen the other metaphorical meaning, but not in anything written since before WW II.

252:

TERF?

Trans-Exclusionary Radical Feminist. It means someone who thinks that womens' rights are only for people who were born with female bodies, and not for those who were born with male bodies but believe that inside they are really female but with the wrong body.

Charlie has said in the past that this issue is a trigger thing for him, so I recommend not getting any further into it here.

253:

on the various gilded cages around the world: the difference between Buckingham Palace and e.g. the White House, is that the inmates of the White House all volunteered for it. The inmates of Buckingham Palace were condemned to it as a result of their parentage.

254:

Charlie has said in the past that this issue is a trigger thing for him, so I recommend not getting any further into it here.

I want to point out that I flagged it, not because I care whether or not she's a TERF, but because there might be legal repercussions for connecting a purported TERF to the KKK, especially if there's not great evidence that the person is a TERF. It's not about extremist positions, it's about the fact that the KKK is well known for violence and killings, in addition to extremist positions. I'm not familiar enough with UK libel law to know whether this is safe territory or not for a post, so I brought it up.

I really don't want this to be about triggers.

255:

Off-topic, yet talking about "triggers" ...
This carefully-written analysis of a revolting aspect of US culture - is well worth the time.
Basically: US cops are deliberately taught to be arrogant bullying cowards & encouraged to continue in that mould.

256:

US cops are deliberately taught to be arrogant bullying cowards & encouraged to continue in that mould.

Not exactly a big surprise. U.S. police have, for the most part, been like this since the founding of our country. I suspect this is true of police in a lot of other countries too.

Power corrupts, etc.

257:

I found Marina's Wikipedia, and now think she's a columnist I wouldn't read even if I took the Grauniad regularly (which I don't).

258:

Thank you for that.

The default version appears to use flash, doesn't know that typeof null === 'object', and then manages to get most of itself blocked. But the low-graphics version works.

Not exactly realistic to be sitting here in the warm with a cup of tea and a fag on the go, with all the time in the world to make decisions. But interestingly it manages to become more realistic as you go on nevertheless. I don't know how much it helps that I'm coming to it with a reasonable idea of what the expectation of results from each decision is, as opposed to coming to it "raw". Didn't stop me getting coal-boxed, in a realistically depressing random fashion.

259:

Ahem: musician Marina Diamandis is not the same person as Guardian columnist Marina Hyde.

260:

Ooops! Missed that. The piece was found in a search for "Marina Hyde terf," so obviously not much out there to indict Marina Hyde.

261:

Changing the subject slightly, if the Royals get turfed out of the UK, which do you think would be a better new home for them: Vegas or Dubai?

262:

H
NEITHER
They become like the Comte de Paris

263:

This isn't the first such anthology

Yeah, I tend to ignore stuff like that as "true, in the eyes of the writer" because so often those comments are either sales blurbs or based on whatever the author happened to remember on the day.

(let me tell you about bicycle speed records... :P)

264:

My favorite version of the sword of heaven

Is a long and weird read, from where I sit. But interesting, so thank you for that.

265:

paws4thot @ 240: 235 - The "Changing the Guard" ceremony happens "wherever the monarch is residing" if at all. It moved from Buck House to Windsor Castle with the Queen's decision to change her principle residence following Philip the Greek's death.

Doesn't really matter WHERE the ceremony happens, if y'all abolish the Monarchy there won't be a "monarch residing" anywhere, so what happens to the ceremonies then?

266:

De nada. Burton Watson's translation "Chuang Tzu" is more fun to read, if less accurate. It's my favorite sacred book, actually. Along with the Tao Te Ching and the I Ching, it's one of the foundational books of Taoism, and the oldest.

A fun little factoid: Lao Tzu, writer of the Tao Te Ching, appears as a character in the Chuang Tzu. However, the oldest known copy of the Chuang Tzu is a couple of centuries older than the oldest known copy of the Tao Te Ching. Think this through for a second...

267:

Robert Prior @ 243:

In U.S. slang, "over the top" doesn't have that dire a meaning ... it just means excessive excess.

Think "The Kardashians" or "The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills" ... reality TV has devalued the meaning.

268:

Pigeon @ 258:

"Coal-boxed"?

269:

Re: 'The Queen, and Charles as heir, have the right to demand consultation and a power of amendment on any law which would impinge on the Monarchy. This is done in secret, without reference to Parliament, and they use it exceedingly often, over 1,000 times since the beginning of her reign.'

This phrasing makes the Queen & Charles sound like pushy arrogant monsters - I thought that under British Law, no law is officially passed until/unless the monarch signed off on it. If the Queen & Charles - designated heir/understudy - didn't read/question anything that was put under their noses then I suppose the headlines would read that they're too lazy/stupid/uncaring to be bothered to learn what it is that they're signing. Unless/until every question they asked about every document is revealed, I'm going to assume that the Queen at least is just doing her due diligence. I'm not assigning her any supernormal intelligence or ethics but my impression is that she - unlike some 'elected' heads of gov't DT, BoJo - has a strong and entrenched sense of 'duty'.

I'm not a monarchist as in 'one ring/crown to rule them all' but do feel that, overall, this Queen has done a pretty good job of stewardship/conservatorship of the family property/assets - some/many of which are open to the public. Basically, I feel that this family and their estates are a living museum and I most definitely wouldn't want their job-for-life.

No idea whether any previous British monarchs were involved in charity work but am aware that quite a bit of the current monarch's (and her family's) time/energy is spent as a patron for various charities. And I'm guessing that her/their patronage probably builds more awareness, support and donations than a million$ ad/PR campaign ever could.

I read a couple of the articles re: Queen that some commenters linked to, i.e., the book and the reporter. Both articles come across like Murdoch rag/scandal sheet stuff. Interestingly, when I looked up that reporter on Wikipedia it said that she made her name working for a Murdoch rag.

@Heteromeles:

About leaving finding a head of state/gov't to an AI:

Who's selecting the data and the desirable/undesirable endpoints that you're going to feed the AI? At a minimum, I'd want at least the variables identified in the World Happiness Report - sappy name for worthwhile substantive objectives/metrics.

@Greg Tingey:

You might like to read this sci peer-reviewed paper on 'assholes'. (Hope it gets nominated for an IgNobel.)

https://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article/8/1/32552/120248/They-Are-Such-an-Asshole-Describing-the-Targets-of

Nice to know that we can now use this term as a scientifically defined/validated assessment of a personality type.

270:

This isn't the first such anthology

Yeah, I tend to ignore stuff like that as "true, in the eyes of the writer" because so often those comments are either sales blurbs or based on whatever the author happened to remember on the day.

I wrote to the author. Wouldn't have bothered, except that the bio said she was a professor (head of department, actually) so I figured maybe she had been more careful and an editor had butchered her piece.

Apparently science fiction is not speculative fiction in her eyes*, so science fiction anthologies don't count. Also, this is the first Australian anthology which should have been obvious to me, despite the story appearing in the Canadian edition of The Conversation.

I do hope that she brings more rigour to her academic writing…

*Silly me — I'd always assumed that science fiction was a subset of speculative fiction.

271:

So, this is clear proof that Lao Tzu lived for many hundreds of years.

272:

A coal-box was a name for a shell with a charge of TNT, from the large amount of black smoke it produced.

I knew the expression "coal-boxed" as being basically a politer version of "fucked" a very long time before I found out where it came from.

273:

So, this is clear proof that Lao Tzu lived for many hundreds of years.

That's one of at least four possibilities I can think of. One definitely needs a certain sense of humor to enjoy it. As with the Sword of the Son of Heaven, there are multiple ways to read these. So a parable about some sort of mystical sword can also be read as a rebuke to an emperor to stop getting off on blood sports, to develop a good officer corps and get back to work ruling (read the sections backwards). It might also be a mnemonic for some spiritual practice which is transmitted orally.

Taoism seems to be the original counter culture, and it's always co-existed with one of the more corrupt political systems on the planet (Imperial China). Its goal is "long life, no harm," and so it's a mix of empirical science (aka Chinese medicine), psychonautics (quest for immortality, which isn't what you think it is), and a critique of wealth and power, as part of the process of trying to let people live long and peaceful lives. This may be why Taoist masters got good at living very humbly and quietly in the most remote mountains they could find.

274:

which do you think would be a better new home for them: Vegas or Dubai?

Naw. Lake Havasu City, Arizona.

After all it has the London Bridge as a starting point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Bridge_(Lake_Havasu_City)

275:

live long and peaceful lives. This may be why Taoist masters got good at living very humbly and quietly in the most remote mountains they could find.

I wonder if climate change will eventually produce a flow of very old hermits back out of said remote mountains? Old, cranky hermits...

276:

261 - Pitcairn Island?

265 - Better yet, at least according to OGH and myself. No monarch -> no CotG sillymony.

277:

if y'all abolish the Monarchy there won't be a "monarch residing" anywhere, so what happens to the ceremonies then?

They're also the royal family of a bunch of other countries (eg. Canada, Australia ...) it's quite possible someone will make an offer for them, if only for the tourist revenue or to provide top cover for some really nasty corruption.

278:

paws You aren't normally that daft! Look at the "guarding" ceremonies in most republics ( Like FRANCE par example, non? )

279:

Exactly why do you feel it is reasonable to scapegoat the royal family for the defects of our political system?

280:

Paws,

Let's not be silly about this: there will always be a Changing of the Guard ceremony, even if it is only notionally defending the Head of State.

Now, to answer Charlie's question about who should be that Head of State, let's consider how the decision will be reached. Barring a revolution -- which is not as far-fetched as it was a decade ago -- the decision on how the HoS will be selected will be down to the Prime Minister, or, if you prefer, Scotland's First Minister. Yes, yes, I know they'll probably set up a Committee or two, but the composition of those committees will be down to the leader, and he or she will not want any surprises.

And Rule 1 will be: "Do not set up another democratically validated power base". Thus it pretty much has to be the Prime Minister (or First Minister) appointing a President, or deciding that they are prepared to open innumerable sewage works (to use Stephen Fry's words from yesterday) in addition to their other duties. I reckon that could go either way. In England we'd have the choice of Prime Minister (+HoS) Boris Johnson tottering towards his inevitable doom, or we'd have President Liz Truss -- since she represents the most visible political opponent to be neutralised with a pretty bauble of a position.

The choice in Scotland will be between First Minister(+HoS) Nichola Sturgeon, may she go on and on, and President , where represents her most daunting political opponent. Earlier in her career, I'd have guessed she'd select Alec Salmond, but you appear to have dodged that particular bullet.

And, in case you think this is an unlikely way for things to proceed, I suggest you look into how Disraeli almost managed to persuade Lord Derby (Conservative PM) to dispatch Gladstone to the post of "Extraordinary Lord High Commissioner of the Ionian Islands", to get him out of the way. It's a masterstroke of political chicanery, which almost worked. Though of course nothing compared to the lengths Walpole (better known as "Cock Robin") was prepared to go to.

281:

I would say, if there is no easily achievable be consensus to fix it, it will continue to wobble on like a supermarket trolley. Unless it ends up in the canal of course.

The current festivities illustrate that a large minority are monarchists when scratched, a smaller minority are indifferent, and an even smaller minority are out and out small-r republicans. Maybe not in Scotland, which is one more centrifugal impulse for the UK.

All Charles, or whatever he styles himself, has to do is not very much. He should be able to manage that.

282:

Meanwhile, I see one Scottish pol-party has outdone itself in a public display of petty spite, worthy of a 5-yr old, & stupidity, to add to their previous monumental idiocies.
ISTM that, the more environmentally-friendly & forward-looking you want to be, the further away you should stay from ANY pol-party that labels itself "green" (!)
I mean the Snot-Greens are against nuclear power & want to withdraw from NATO - how very sensible ....
{Mind you the general principle applies: In Britain: "Conservative" - conserve nothing, & only interested in continued power, whilst wrecking everything In the USA: "Republican" - whilst driving hard for an autocracy & so on & on & on ... }
P.S. Yes, I know Charlie is or was sympathetic to them.

peterajet
You are aware that Charles is of the opinion that the "Firm" should NOT receive state monies via the Civil List, but should "live of their own" - i.e. register as a Company or Corporation & pay taxes?
Thus depriving the government of a lot of money - all the complaints about the "cost of the Monarchy" being entirely bogus, of course, once you actually look at it.
And remember that a Republic would still have to pay the expenses & accommodation of whoever the appointed/elected HoS would be?
Again, look at what other states' do & their associated costs.

283:

Greg:

I am a member of the Scottish Green Party

I suggest you reconsider what you're doing here, and whether you should stop digging.

284:

I wonder whether, in light of what's happening in Ukraine, the Scottish Greens still want to withdraw from NATO?

285:

Maybe it is a basic psychological/emotional human need to have the ruler of their community, nation, kingdom, whatever be led (though not necessarily ruled) by Daddy and/or Mommy surrogates.

It's essentially no different than the alphas of a troop of chimps or baboons. Just basic primate behavior, doesn't have to be rational (something our species is not).

Even in America, having no legal Monarch (and whose president combines the ceremonial duties of Head of State and the legal duties as Ruler) we create our own royalty to meet this basic psychological need.

They're called celebrities.

286:

I suspect that's getting a rethink at the next party conference.

287:

Charlie
See what Troutwaxer has said, yes?
I sincerely hope they do change, though. So, what, in your 'umble opinion, is the likelihood of them regaining sanity is?
Oh yes, what's your take on their fanatical opposition to Nuclear Power, given Scotland's Latitude, or do they "think" that wind+tidal+batteries will be enough?

288:

The United Kingdom gets by just fine without a written Constitution. It could have a Crown without a royal family.

I'm surprised nobody has posted this idea yet: With modern technology, the royal duties could be performed by citizens who are randomly selected and receive directions through an app on their phones. It is similar to being called for jury duty. Serving as a "Legally Acceptable Royal Placeholder" and being able to show Her Virtual Highness on your screen would be an honour.

I seem to recall reading a near future science fiction Scottish police procedural with similar ideas. It came out several years ago, so the big question is why it hasn't happened already.

Some people might object that the UK will not go for this sci-fi LARP silliness. But it can also be presented as rationalization. Why spend millions to keep permanent staff on call when they can be replaced by a rack of servers and part-time gig workers?

289:

Am still recovering from COVID. Don't ask complicated questions.

290:

NATO and such:

Since far in the past, this was a blog discussing SFnal things, I wonder if NATO + EU + friends might be seen as a proto-Culture in the making.

But back to reality, alas.

291:

Years ago I read Parkinson's Law, a series of essays by Northcote C. Parkinson collected in book form. In it there was one about properly using advertising to select the ideal candidate for the job, the goal being to word the ad in such a way that only one person applies, and they are the ideal candidate. (This being an old book, it was phrased as "the best man for the job", but we can be more enlightened.)

Oddly, one of the examples was selecting the leader of a country:

Suppose that we deem the following qualities essential: energy, courage, patriotism, experience, popularity, and eloquence. We want the most energetic, courageous, patriotic, experience, popular, and eloquent person in the country. The trick is to phrase the advertisement so as to exclude everyone else, but attract our ideal leader.

Wanted — Monarch of the United Kingdom. Hours of work: 4 AM to 11:59 PM. Candidates must be prepared to fight three rounds with the current heavyweight champion (regulation gloves will be worn). Candidates will die for their country, by painless means, on reaching the age of retirement (65). They will have to pass an examination on constitutional procedures and will be liquidated should they fail to obtain 95% marks. They will also be liquidated if they fail to gain 75% votes in a popularity poll held under the Gallup Rules. They will be invited to try their eloquence on a Baptist Congress, the object being to induce those present to rock and roll. Those who fail will be liquidated. All candidates should present themselves at the Sporting Club (side entrance) at 11:15 AM on the morning of September 19. Gloves will be provided, but they should bring their own shoes, singlet, and shorts.

292:

I changed my mind about the desirability of a republic when, as someone else already wrote I realised that Margaret Thatcher would probably have been elected president. Bur if we do have a republic I don’t want a president. We should elect a Lord Protector with a purely ceremonial role. Or Lady Protector if you prefer.

293:

So a section of my street was closed off today for a street party, there having been signs up all week warning of this.

And then nothing happened.

No sign of any kind of party either happening or having happened. About one house had flags up, and not on that bit of the street. Contrast the roughly 30% incidence of St George flags when Ingerlund is doing football somewhere.

294:

Since it came up earlier, and to demonstrate quite how odious they are, Laurie Penny brings to your attention a couple of leading TERFS edging pretty damn close to eliminationist talk. The comments get pretty vile too.

295:

Charlie @ 289
😘

296:

If Colleen McCullough is to be believed, Sulla was made Dictator after that nice Marius fellow occupied Rome, the city, and slaughtered a fair number of the population. Sulla was seen as the rational alternative, which tells you how off the beam Marius was at that point.

297:

For Scotland

Wind+tidal+batteries+HYDRO can definitely be enough. Is it enough to keep sending power over the border to the South? Well that is Englands problem.

298:

How many people did Marius slaughter? I thought it was mostly a faction fight rather than targeting ordinary citizens. (And before that, Sulla had marched on Rome with his legions, which was unprecedented as well as against Roman law.)

299:

Hydroelectric generating power in Scotland is a miniscule part of the total capacity needed to keep the lights on and heat homes through winter. Despite appearances it doesn't rain THAT much in the Highlands where nearly all of the hydroelectric schemes are located and the dataplate generating total is about 1GW. Much of the time most of this capacity is not used as the operators use the dams and reservoirs to work as storage, selling electricity into the grid when the price is right. There's a complex balance of current water levels, predicted rainfall or lack of it over the next week or so and "use it or lose it" cost-price minmaxing if lots of rain is forecast going on at any given time. As I type this we're generating 240MW from hydro (from the Gridwatch real-time website). It is often zero.

In contrast Norway has over 30GW dataplate hydroelectric generating capacity plus abundant rainfall and even they burn gas on occasion to cover temporary supply deficits. Excess/surplus electricity is sold abroad (a 1.4GW undersea HVDC link between Norway and the UK means they can sell some of that hydroelectric surplus to us or use our expanding fleet of gas-fired generators to help meet any shortfalls) or the energy is converted into refined aluminium which is exported to make money.

Tidal doesn't appear to be going anywhere in Scotland. I've seen a lot of press puff-pieces about one-off experimental undersea turbines meant to harvest tidal energy and/or sea currents. What I've not seen is anyone bending metal to build large arrays of these turbines anywhere, and the press doesn't usually report when the subsidised experiment ends and (hopefully) the seabed turbine is recovered and scrapped.

The other tidal possibility is to barrage off an estuary such as the Firth of Forth or maybe the Tay estuary (the Moray Firth has also been suggested by a certain crazy person). Barrages like this do not produce that much power (apart from the Moray Firth proposal but, like I said, crazy person) and it would devastate the ecology of the barraged area. One of the best sites for a barrage tidal energy generating system on the planet is the Severn estuary and for the past century and more every attempt to start the process to build one has gone crashing down in flames due to cost, difficulty, predicted utility and again the environmental impact.

Wind and batteries, great idea and thank you for adding in the cost of storage to a renewable energy proposal (not something most renewables True Believers ever bother to do). Of course batteries don't generate any electricity themselves, they just store it and waste some in the storage/return cycle. The other issue is "how much battery storage do we need to provide five-nines electricity to consumers using mostly renewables such as wind and solar"? There's no definitive answers, really but my SWAG is 5 terawatt-hours of storage at least just for Scotland -- 6 million people, 35GW energy needed for lights, heating, clean water, transportation etc. during winter, a week-long lull with maybe 1GW of wind average and piss-all solar would be 5000 GWh of filled storage required to cover the lack of generation. Of course if the batteries aren't full when the lull starts or the lull continues for two weeks a lot of people will have to do without electricity, heating etc. in winter but them's the breaks.

The variability of wind generation is the biggest issue that means we will continue to burn shitloads of gas into the future, whatever happens (absent a shitload of nuclear power plants being built which isn't going to happen because of Godzilla movies).

300:

On topic, I lean towards "Don't fix it if it ain't broke" as reactionaries demonstrate new, exciting ways to break government. I haven't noticed anyone mentioning this film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Ralph

301:

An idle thought, would there be a useful thermal differential between an offshore drilling platform and the sea floor below it? Given our energy future looks to be scraping up whatever we can find to keep the radiophobes happy.

302:

"Don't fix it if it ain't broke"

It's the revolutionaries pointing out the very real problems that would bother me if I wanted to monarchy to keep overriding democratic decisions in the UK. At least us filthy colonials have less of that to put up with, although it is one of the more secretive parts of a secretive government.

Cliche "if you've done nothing wrong you've got no reason to keep it secret"... except that what's been released recently has made Australians more inclined towards the French treatment of royalty. All this "one thinks the Prime Minister should be dismissed" stuff doesn't really fit with the modern understanding of a figurehead of state.

303:

You might enjoy Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition (Australian Division) appointing a nucular fanboi as spokes on engery etc. He's quotes as saying:

“Rather than being perpetually divisive, I believe nuclear technology has the capacity to unite Australians. It is a proposition that brings together progressives and conservatives within the Coalition.”

Even that makes it clear that "Australians" is a group making up both sides of the Coalition, rather than including the peasantry. That lot have a long and proud tradition of being surprised and angry when said peasantry disagrees with them (as now, BTW, they are bemoaning the traitorous stupidity of those who stole votes from them in the recent electoral loss, and especially the stupid women who allowed their votes to be stolen).

304:

[Tim H.] Re #300: Have been resisting the mention of King Ralph with gritted teeth.

[Nojay] Re: #299: Hydro's also dependent on reliable rain. California ain't getting what they used to and is predicting hydro shortfalls. No surprise there, given the record CO2 levels ever since H. sap has been around.

305:

I remembered the line I was thinking of ... "we got both kinds of music, country and western".

O'Brien caters to both kinds of Australians... Liberals and Nationals.

306:

293 - I am not aware of any "street parties" within walking distance of this address all sillybration weekend.

297 - tidal + batteries (even treating actual use of hydro as a form of battery) is at best, unproven and/or under development technologies.

300 - It's John Goodman film; accordingly, not one I've ever watched.

307:

An interesting insight on OGH's biz, 'Content Creation': “Cultural producers who, in the past, may have focused on writing books or producing films or making art must now also spend considerable time producing (or paying someone else to produce) content about themselves and their work” https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/how-the-internet-turned-us-into-content-machines

308:

Well, now SOMETHING needs abolishing anyway ...
I see they are rushing the vote, so that ( I predict ) Bo Jon-Sun will win, i.e. less than 180 vote against him. It's fairly obvious that the "Out" group will not get that majority, so BJ-S will carry on, destroying everything in sight for another 12 months.
When a General Election does, finally, come along the tory party will be even more smashed than the country/countries, but the damage will have been done.
Indeed, I suspect that the deliberate wrecking & buggering-up "programme" will accelerate?

309:

I wonder if NATO + EU + friends might be seen as a proto-Culture in the making.

probably by themselves, but without oversight by the minds i doubt much will come of it

310:

Of the 15 countries that have Elizabeth as monarch, currenlty six are in the process of becoming republics:

https://www.opindia.com/2022/04/six-caribbean-countries-to-become-republics-by-leaving-british-monarchy/

Barbados set a trend. Canada, turn out the lights when you leave, please.

311:

just finished reading 'Brexit uncovered' I don't think the UK is going to survive. We're going to get Balkanized .

312:

I just hope there will be less war and genocide.

Maybe you just get United Kingdomed. Or Great Britained.

313:

Offshore oil and gas platforms[1] are very expensive to build, maintain and operate and cost lives -- just off the top of my head, the accidents involving the Alexander Kielland, Brent Alpha and Deepwater Horizon platforms killed over three hundred people. They also have quite a short life before being expensively decommissioned, twenty or thirty years. The fossil fuel they make available for us to burn in atmosphere makes them a bargain, financially speaking.

The small amount of electricity any kind of offshore thermal gradient harvesting system might produce is not going to make much of a difference to keeping the lights on. In other news the UK government has just given the Jackdaw offshore gas project the go-ahead because they do have a vested interest in keeping the lights on and fuck that "Carbon neutral by 2050" garbage.

[1]There are two types of offshore platform, a drilling/exploration rig and a production platform. There are a lot more of the latter compared to the former but "drilling" is what people think of first and foremost. The body count from accidents comes from the production platforms, mostly -- getting fossil fuel out of the ground isn't that dangerous comparatively speaking, processing it through the production platforms for decades is.

314:

andyf
I am horribly afraid you are correct.
Bo Jon-Sun should be in jail for life for TREASON
All thrown away for personal gain

315:

Nojay @ 299: Wind and batteries, great idea and thank you for adding in the cost of storage to a renewable energy proposal [...] The other issue is "how much battery storage do we need to provide five-nines electricity to consumers using mostly renewables such as wind and solar"?

I read one article (which I can't now find, darn it) which estimated the cost of 99.9% renewable power as being the kind of silly numbers you mention, but going for 95% plus some gas generator plants kept on standby for the remaining 5% was quite sane. And eliminating something like 90% of our remaining electrical CO2 is a worthwhile goal.

So its a question of not letting the best become the enemy of the merely good.

316:

Kardashev @ 290: I wonder if NATO + EU + friends might be seen as a proto-Culture in the making.

That, roughly, is a one-sentence summary of the thesis of Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man. Briefly, after the end of the Cold War Fukuyama suggested that liberal democracy had triumphed, and henceforth nobody would even bother trying to suggest an alternative, since all the other available alternatives (viz, Communism and Fascism) had so manifestly failed.

I recall a cartoon in The Economist a few years later which featured The End of History (Updated Edition).

317:

So its a question of not letting the best become the enemy of the merely good.

Sort of like those assumptions that grid storage via batteries needs to be Li-ion. They don't need to be mobile or be carried in a pocket so other battery tech that's 20% bigger by volume, isn't as efficient at re-charge, but costs 50% as much as Li-ion makes more sense. Especially if it can handle the heat and cold of much of the planets seasons.

318:

How much dataplate wind generating capacity is needed for 95% supply of the MAXIMUM demand for energy, with electricity replacing heating, transport and other fossil fuel energy demands? For Scotland alone I put that demand in mid-winter at about 35GW, less in summer but we absolutely need that 35GW of supply to meet heating and other essential needs otherwise people will suffer and die.

On average wind produces about 30% of dataplate over a year so ON AVERAGE we'd need 120GW minimum dataplate of wind turbines for Scotland's energy supply. It would be good to double that number to cope with wind lulls when we're only getting 15% of dataplate, so over twenty thousand 10MW wind turbines, pretty much the biggest currently being built today, are needed for Scotland's future electricity requirements. The entire UK has maybe five hundred such wind turbines installed today, ten years after renewables became the Big Thing in energy as far as the general population believes. In reality we're getting most of our electricity from gas with a solid lump of nuclear (about 5-6GW) but that nuclear capacity is ageing out and going away in the next five or six years and it's a race to get the two EPR reactors at Hinckley Point up and running before the last AGR is decommissioned. In reality we're not building enough wind turbines to replace even that lost nuclear capacity and the older wind turbines are ageing and will need replacing soon, beginning a Red Queen's Race of building several new wind turbines every week to keep up.

Gas is cheap and it delivers electricity when we need it. Wind is cheap but it's fickle and stops delivering electricity even if we do need it. Gas it is then, with lots of MinTruth pictures in the press of wind turbines and no mention of those anonymous grey buildings with a pipeline gas connection and a transformer yard outside connected to the grid which actually keep the lights on.

As I type this, Gridwatch reports, for the UK -- 33.5GW demand, wind 4GW (ca. 9% of installed wind capacity), CCGT gas 15GW (ca. 40% of CCGT capacity), nuclear 6GW with 2.3GW of feel-good wood pellets and some imports and solar making up the difference. Double the wind turbine fleet to 70GW capacity and that would only displace 4GW of gas today, when it's not particularly cold or dark. A few days ago our 35GW fleet of wind turbines was generating less than 1GW and it's not the first time this year that's happened.

319:

Nojay
It therefore HAS TO BVE NUCLEAR ... How does one deal with the specious shrieks from the fake greenies, who would rather we all died, then?

320:

260: "Since far in the past, this was a blog discussing SFnal things, I wonder if NATO + EU + friends might be seen as a proto-Culture in the making."

More accurately this is the blog of an SF writer who occasionally fires a starting gun on a particular topic. The rest of us will usually gamely engage the topic for a period of time before the discussion inevitably devolves into one of the following: 'Bike helmets/No helmets', 'Renewable energy doesn't work/does work', 'Heat pumps/no heat pumps', 'Nuclear/no nuclear', 'Do guns protect you from bears' and occasionally military capacity of various pieces of tech.

All very fascinating, I see that we are only just past 300 and rapidly spiraling into the renewable energy ouroboros discussion again. To sum up - some people think renewables are a good idea, others think they are not. Occasionally a fragment of evidence is brought in, which is either suspect or compelling depending on one's cognitive biases. And whatever solutions might be presented to global problems, they cannot and will not work because they might not apply to highly specific situations in regions of the UK.

321:

For Scotland alone I put that demand in mid-winter at about 35GW, less in summer but we absolutely need that 35GW of supply to meet heating and other essential needs otherwise people will suffer and die.

Suffer? Yes. Die? Unlikely. People have lived in Scotland without electricity, gas, and oil for thousands of years. Living without heat in the winter is quite possible, and sacrificing some comfort to save civilization (and possibly our species) seems reasonable.

Personally, I have lived without any heating or air conditioning for over 15 years now (max high in my apartment 100° F., max low 40° F.). Uncomfortable at times? Yes. But close to dying? No.

322:

Perhaps it appears the monarchy itself has resolved the question of dissolution and substitution for this archaic English (as, others that might be involved say, Ireland, Wales and Scotland, may have other thoughts on the ancient status of the English monarchy) institution.

God Save Our Hologram!

As was done yesterday, or was it Saturday, just drag out ye olde golde coach and project the hologram on the ceremonial and ritual occasions that traditionally call for a royal presence. The same can certainly be done seamlessly for opening of Parliament, and so on, surely?

323:

In other "government" news from around the world ...

Vladimir Putin’s Red Mercury Scam

Guess who gets a shout out in the comments.

324:

This or the Dr Who cloning program used on Spaceship UK seems a viable solution. Our more reactionary politicians, I’m looking at you JRM could be swayed by not only a permaqueen but also perpetually about teatime in 1954 in the UK. Which is where it appears he and some others want to exist. The rest of us can do our own thing in a selection of new nations.

325:

David L @ 317:

So its a question of not letting the best become the enemy of the merely good.

Sort of like those assumptions that grid storage via batteries needs to be Li-ion. They don't need to be mobile or be carried in a pocket so other battery tech that's 20% bigger by volume, isn't as efficient at re-charge, but costs 50% as much as Li-ion makes more sense. Especially if it can handle the heat and cold of much of the planets seasons.

This segment aired on the NPR program Science Friday last Friday (03 Jun 2022)

Building A Better Battery… Using Plastic?

326:

Start by creating a world-wide power grid, making it possible to send excess capacity anywhere. Build lots of batteries. Build lots of solar/wind in the appropriate areas. Work on geothermal. Close the coal plants... and so on. There's a ton of stuff which can be done, but someone's going to have to supply the leadership.

While nuclear has some advantages, it has four major disadvantages; expense, long lead times for building, waste disposal and the potential for catastrophic breakdowns. On the other hand, if you have a worldwide grid, solar is fast and cheap and the wind is always blowing someplace.

THIS IS NOT FUCKING ROCKET SCIENCE!! It is doable immediately - if enough people pull their heads out.

327:

No it is not doable now. Unless you remove most of the human population. Most people will not come close to cooperating in such a setup. Much less the political leadership. Tribalism rules from top to bottom. And any plan that doesn't deal with this issue is just talk around the pub table.

Charlie has talked about humans not being perfect spherical clones of each other at various times. This plays into your solution now.

328:

Greg Tingey @ 319:

We're all going to die anyway. The question is whether any "technology" causes it to occur sooner than it has to. Three score and ten. Everything else is a bonus.

And THAT often depends on how people implement and handle that "technology". No technology is safe unless the people implementing that technology have an ongoing commitment to keeping it safe.

That applies to nuclear as much as it does to fossil fuels and "alternative" energy ... I don't believe concern over the safety of nuclear power makes anyone a "fake greenie".

329:

I feel the need to rant here. There are lots of possible solutions to global warming. Nuclear has some advantages, so do solar, wind, geothermal, etc. All these technologies also have disadvantages. However, the big problem is not nuclear vs. solar, or whatever matchup the fanbois might propose. The problem is the removal of heads from arses, nothing more or less.

So before you make the weighty pronouncement that your favorite technology is the way to go, understand this: Nothing will happen until the great butt/head removal has taken place. (Once that happens things will move very quickly.) The problem does not require a particular technology. The problem requires the use of crowbars (and maybe a little lube) on our politicians, for the specific purpose of disconnecting brains from lower intestines.

The problem is not "Greens being opposed to nuclear," (or vice-versa) but all the Democrats and Republicans, or Tories and Liberals, who keep their heads in their assholes on behalf of big oil and/or big coal.

Assuming the removal of heads from rectums, there will be some kind of cost/benefit/speed analysis done, and it will tell us pretty clearly that nuclear will take too long, or solar won't work, or wind is unreliable, or whatever, and we should do X instead. If you like living on a planet which supports life, you will do a little math to make sure the proposed solution makes sense, then you'll figure out the best way you can contribute to X, and you'll work it until your heart breaks for the rest of your life, and if you've very lucky your children won't starve to death!

So shut the fuck up about your favorite solutions and work out how to pull the local potentate's head out of his/her fundament, because very little useful progress will be made until we have leadership.

330:

rocketjps
What about those of us who think "renewables" are a brilliant idea, we need as much of them as we can get ... but ... they will not be enough on their own? { As backed-up by the numbers, may I say }
So we still need back-up/base-load power?

331:

Completely OT, and probably meaningless for most here, but the 50th Anniversary of Watergate begins Friday a week from now (17 June 2022).

I expect many comparisons with how Nixon ultimately recognized that being the President DID NOT put him above the law and our ongoing experience with CHEATO-lini iL Douchebag

Have we learned the lessons of Watergate?

Or perhaps, what lessons did some people learn from Watergate?

332:
'Nuclear/no nuclear', 'Do guns protect you from bears'

I'm still waiting for the "can you train bears to operate nuclear power plants" discussion to kick off.

Obviously, grizzly (brown) bears would be a superior option. Their large size and peaceful disposition would make them ideal candidates for the job.

333:

Wishful thinking, to the point of bloody idiocy. A hell of a lot of 'liberal democracies' are neither liberal nor democratic, largely because the bigots and oligarchs have learnt how to game the system ('representative democracy').

While you COULD make a case for the EU being a sort of rudimentary Culture, doing so for NATO is nonsense, at best. Consider Turkey - why does it get such kid glove treatment on its undemocracy and illiberalism? Because 'they' don't want it to leave NATO and risk opening up NATO's eastern flank to the enemy.

334:

Gee, and here I thought Harlan and several others invented "speculative fiction" to try to get out of the sf ghetto (which lit-fic types consign us, because "science is hard", and "can't we write stuff from the 1920's?"

One also wonders what how this dean defines the word "speculative".

335:

What, he can't time travel?

336:

Won't work. The people writing the ad will write if for someone they already have in house and want. Back around '04 or '05, I applied for a job that literally looked like it was written for me. Didn't get it.

337:

Insert my usual "Biggest Battery Breakthrough Since Breakfast" tagline here. At least the NPR tease didn't mention carbon nanotubes or graphene.

Sigh. It's not the batteries, it's not the nuclear, it's not the wind and solar and wood-pellets and hamsters on wheels, it's ENERGY. Human beings suffer and die if there isn't enough energy, if it's too hot or too cold or there's no clean water or no food transport to urban areas, no hospitals and drug manufacturing, no agricultural production etc. Without copious amounts of energy a small fraction of the 7.5 billion people alive today could survive digging at the ground with pointed sticks to grow food and maybe sacrificing the occasional virgin where there's a drought. And that's it.

We've given up on coal, mostly (Green Germany hasn't, neither has the US or China but the countries that dug up all their allotted amounts of coal already and burned it, like Britain, have done so). The new go-to energy source is gas which can be turned into electricity to be used to drive motors, compress gas to cool and heat, operate lifts and escalators for those with mobility problems, be chemically converted into fertiliser etc. It all ends up as CO2 in the atmosphere eventually and that's a bad thing.

Wind and solar work as energy sources but they can't outcompete an 800MW fast-start CCGT plant for cost, reliability and dependability, and they require immense amounts of hardware per GW of intermittent generating capacity. Hydro is geologically limited to the Good Places, geothermal is even more limited to quite specific underground conditions. Nuclear is very expensive to build to super-safe requirements that no other energy source is held to and it's always too late to start building nuclear because it takes too long to complete. It's likely that folks will be saying the same thing twenty years from now in the next energy crisis because we didn't start building lots of reactors today because, of course, it takes too long to build...

338:

One of my daughters, one who's had one short published so far, has 10k followers, I think, and does blog, vlog, and tik-tok, I think, to try to get attention so that she can get published. https://morganhazlewood.com Among other things, she'll do con reports (and she's started being on panels).

339:

Speaking of nuclear, CNBC, which tends CAPITALIST first, and white wing second, had an article pushing fast nukes. It even mentioned that it generates plutonium... and not once did it mention why it was not looked upon kindly by nuclear powers.

340:

work out how to pull the local potentate's head out of his/her fundament,

You keep making the problem one of leaders. It's not. The problem is that entire people groups don't want to work with others. Or think that the "others" might get ahead of them. Some on the other side of the globe. Others across the street. As long as we have tribes working this way nothing will change. The leadership just reflects (exploits?) this situation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pogo_(comic_strip)#%22We_have_met_the_enemy_and_he_is_us.%22

341:

"Obviously, grizzly (brown) bears would be a superior option. Their large size and peaceful disposition would make them ideal candidates for the job."

I'd favour a carefully modified supercolony of ants to run a power plant. Tireless workers, endlessly diligent. Able to lift and move large multiples of their own bodyweight, and also willing to sacrifice individuals on a regular basis for the good of the colony. There is a strong argument for ant colonies as distributed intelligence forms.

A small science fictional hazard that constant exposure to radiation might make them mutate into a too intelligent version that then kills or enslaves us all.!

! - There are, astoundingly, ant colonies that practice slavery of other ant species in the wild. They raid and capture ants from other colonies and force them to work in their own, or sometimes invade other species colonies and take them over.

!! - Ants are amazing. There are also species that practice permaculture, in that they kill all the plants in an area that don't feed them, and sustain those that do.

342:

"It's not the batteries, it's not the nuclear, it's not the wind and solar and wood-pellets and hamsters on wheels, it's ENERGY."

Yes, but it's also the POWER. True, E = &int P dt, but there's important detail hidden in that.

If you use the demand and wind + solar power statistics available at Gridwatch for the UK and ERCOT for Texas and scale the W+S number up to meet, say, the yearly energy demand, in both cases the power still drops way below demand for days at a time, like a week or more a couple of times a year. Telling the populace to suck it up and live with it might not be a strategy that would appeal to politicians.

343:

I'm sorry, but ERCOT in TX has been telling the populace to suck it up for years.

344:

With regard to leadership... READ A BLOODY DICTIONARY!

345:

"I'm sorry, but ERCOT in TX has been telling the populace to suck it up for years."

No, it's just been pretending that everything was going po-normal'nu. The events of February 2021 may or may not have changed that.

346:

Johnson wins the confidence motion 216-148. Those are pretty terrible numbers. If the byelections go as badly as they should, I don't think the 12 month procedural rule will save his worthless skin.

347:

If you knock the 148 rebels off his parliamentary majority, it means he's running a minority government. He certainly can't afford to withdraw the party whip from them.

So he's now a lame duck, but one who can't be levered out of office directly before June 2023, by which time everything is likely to be on fire, sinking, and waving its legs in the air.

348:

Apparently I hadn't commented in so long I had to make a new account.

In any case, the final option (no head of state) is very close to the way Japan currently works.

https://japan.kantei.go.jp/constitution_and_government_of_japan/constitution_e.html

Yes, Japan has an "emperor" but the current constitution does not give him any powers whatsoever and he is emphatically NOT the head of state. In fact, there is no head of state!

While the emperor does have a ritualistic role in some government proceedings, such as appointing the PM, he has absolutely no discretion and arguably no personal freedom of any kind, because he is not legally a citizen and his actions are massively constrained by the Constitution. In fact, the emperor has so little freedom that when the previous one wanted to abdicate there was no consensus that he had any inherent right to do so, and parliament passed a bill giving him permission to do so!

While the emperor, as "the symbol of the State and of the unity of the People" does engage in some of the same tasks as a proper Head of State, he really is just the ultimate version of a cosplay dynasty: all pomp and no power.

349:

Quiz of the day: is Bloody Stupid Johnson a character in discworld or the current PM of the UK?

None of the pundits think he will survive until 2023 as leader, but he has confounded them before. He may resign under pressure, but it is possible it would take a vote of no confidence (in the government) or assassination to dislodge him before June 2023. I have given up trying to guess what he will do next.

350:

... ERCOT in TX has been telling the populace to suck it up for years.

Over 130 Texans did suck it up and die in the winter of 2021, thanks to ERCOT. :-(

351:

It therefore HAS TO BVE NUCLEAR

So, Greg, what are you doing to make this happen?

Going on about it in a random writers blog comments hasn't worked. I suggest you need to get out there and do a whole lot more than that if you're going to get any nuclear electricity happening.

To me that's the key difference: I think solar and wind are the way to go, so I have solar on my roof, I pay for solar/wind electricity from my supplier, and I invest some of my money in community wind and solar projects. I also put time into the political side.

As far as I can tell your approach is indistinguishable from someone who wants to keep burning fossil fuels. Nothing you actually do is different in any way from that "fossil Greg".

352:

Most people will not come close to cooperating in such a setup. Much less the political leadership.

The idea of a world government imposing this colonial dream by force is nonsense, I agree with you there. But we seem to have a whole lot of global infrastructure despite the impossibility of a unified global government.

So there's solid evidence that you're wrong, in the form of electrical interconnectors between countries. There's ~700MW across the straits of Gibraltar, for example, with more under construction even as you say it's impossible. If you search for "electrical interconnector" or similar you'll find all sorts of existing, under construction and planned projects.

https://www.in.gr/2022/06/06/english-edition/electric-interconnection-greece-israel-egypt-charging-ahead/

On the other side the cable from Oz to Singapore seems to be under construction, and that's going to be three impossible things before breakfast - many GW of solar, several GWh of battery, and a 3000km cable.

353:

Meanwhile nuclear means very expensive electricity in a world where wholesale prices keep dropping. The regulator in Australia is apparently telling generators to get ready for zero prices to become a regular thing and they should plan accordingly.

The "problem" is that the marginal cost of generation for solar and wind is indistinguishable from zero, so they have no incentive to stop generating just because the wholesale price is zero. In practice they balance the cost of turning off against the risk of the price going negative.

One solution being proposed is to make electricity free to battery owners, and encourage them to feed the grid during peak times. There's moves in that direction already with the "Red Energy EV Saver Plan".

But I'm sure that the UK will be happy to keep paying 1000 pounds per MWh if that's what it takes to keep the lights on. And your government will happily regulate to prevent renewable electricity suppliers from competing to supply electricity at that price.

354:

Nojay @ 337:

What I got from that program segment is that Wind & Solar are not constant, that battery storage is an essential component of any wind/solar system because storage makes it possible to store the energy when it's created and use the energy later when it's needed. They're not claiming it's the "Biggest Battery Breakthrough Since Breakfast", nor are they claiming it's a panacea solution ...

What they are claiming is to have developed a commercially viable product that does NOT have some of the draw-backs of Li-Ion or Lead-acid batteries. It's already on the market and they're ready to start scaling up.

Maybe not perfect, but good enough.

We're going to need solar, wind, hydro, tidal ... AND nuclear - all the other alternatives - if we're going to reduce the use of fossil fuels to the point where we can begin to get CO2 emissions under control.

If we don't get CO2 under control, we're - as Greg points out - ALL GONNA' DIE! [sooner rather than later].

And batteries for storage are going to be a component of all of those alternative energy systems. If the company can produce something that works and doesn't have some of the drawbacks of Li-Ion technology, I like it.

It may not be THE solution, but it appears to me to be A solution, one of the many solutions we're going to need.

355:

David L @ 340:

"We is surrounded by a vast sea of insurmountable opportunities!"

356:

Colonial world government... yup. That's why, in my universe, we get a Terran Confederation (and how it comes about is in the novel I'm currently trying to find an agent for). As folks here have noted, the EU isn't a confederation, but was moving that way. I can't see what, over 200 countries giving up control to a world-wide federal government, which is why I made it a confederation.

Even though, as time goes by (scores of years), it really does become a federation.

357:

The idea of a world government imposing this colonial dream by force is nonsense, I agree with you there. But we seem to have a whole lot of global infrastructure despite the impossibility of a unified global government.

I agree with both halves of this statement. But my point is about infrastructure like that to delivery oil and gas to Europe from Russia. Would it change the current situation if Russia was delivering electrons instead of oil and gas? And before you say it, yes, all of those countries in Europe could multi source their electrons. But that costs big bucks. And governments, leaders, populations are almost loath to spend money on WASTEFUL (snark emphasis here) redundant supply lines.

Until they need it.

358:

Uncle Stinky
Agree wholeheartedly ...

See below:
Who will land in Torbay to relieve us of this Catholic monstrosity?
1688 reference, for those of you who don't get it!
James II & VII lasted 3+ years & wrecked the country ... Boris?

  • Charlie:
    NOT LONG TO WAIT ... two bye-elections at the end of this month - most particulalry if they both crash, then it's FUN TIME!

EC:
YES - to B.S Johsnon as in Bo Jon-Sun (!)

Moz
HOW MANY TIMES - what's your Latitude? What's ours?
- { However - agree about our blatantly-rigged "market" }

359:

Greg, I'm not saying my solution works for you, I'm asking what you are doing to solve your problem.

We've established at some length that you are brilliant at whining, awesome at picking holes in other people's ideas, and ... that seems to be it for you. Nothing can be done, nothing will be done, you and yours are all going to die a cold pathetic death. Sucks to be you.

360:

Well, there's a uranium ore deposit a few miles down the road from me. It's a pretty crappy one but I could, I suppose, go and dig several tons of it up and extract the goodness from it - tedious but not particularly difficult. The same description applies to processing a huge amount of water to get the deuterium oxide out. I could then dig a hole in my back garden and down at the bottom of it construct a natural-uranium/heavy-water reactor, which for reasons of constructional practicality would operate below 100°C and have enough fuel load to put out several kW at least until I could expect to be dead. This would comfortably cover my domestic heating needs even in the direst of winters, and also enable me to generate (albeit at ruinously low efficiency, but it wouldn't matter) enough electricity to run lights and computer and charge a battery to handle those occasional short-term heavy loads like welding.

Unfortunately it would take long enough to set up that some bastard would probably realise what I was doing and send lots of people with uniforms and possibly even guns to fuck on me.

If I did it as a community project and made one big enough to heat the whole street, it would be a lot quicker, since some people have access to things like trucks and diggers, most people can put forth ten seconds of extreme effort without needing ten minutes to get their breath back afterwards, and some people are very large. But it would also mean that the bastard mentioned in the previous paragraph would find out a lot quicker, and indeed might turn out to be one of the people I was aiming to help.

As for Greg, he doesn't even have the advantage of a handy local ore deposit. So it's even less practical for him.

361:

Would it change the current situation if Russia was delivering electrons instead of oil and gas?

No, it would probably be worse because it's harder to manage demand on an electricity grid. With gas and oil they can just turn off random bits of the system and all that happens is people whine about queues. Browning or blacking out grid segments can be done, but not easily on a very fine grain. That's one reason smart grids are popular with geeky types, BTW.

But it would be even more stupid to build all new EU electricity generation in Russia than to rely on fossil fuels from Russia. At least with the latter you can argue that it's hard to move gas fields and difficult to build new ones.

It would be like the US deciding that it would be cheaper to build all your new nuclear and solar generation in Mexico. Sure, you can easily build transmission lines to move 50GW or whatever from Mexico to the US. But next time Trump is elected he will cut those cables, and then you'll be fucked. So maybe don't do that?

In reality EU is more likely to find an African country or five that they can deal with and build solar plants there, while building wind and solar in Europe as well. Probably more nuclear, but that's way more complicated politically than fixing French relations with their former colonies. Then 90% of the problem becomes shipping electricity around within Europe... and that's mostly just scaling up the existing systems for doing that, rather than anything completely new.

One advantage of renewables, and we keep saying this, is that they scale easily. It's possible for me to put up solar panels and sell power to my neighbour. That's also true if "me" is a company, a county, a province, state, territory, country or political bloc. Hence the Forrest thing of putting up some solar panels and selling power to Singapore.

But that also means that you don't have to come up with a big plan, find a big pile of money, then spend a big amount of time to find out whether what you want can be done at all. The "minimum viable product" might be bigger than I can personally afford, but it's not of the same order as a civilian nuclear plant. There's probably fewer than 100 individuals who can afford a nuke plant, but billions who can afford a solar one.

Hence my comment before about several cables across the strait of Gibraltar that between them carry less than a GW. You really can buy a small, comparatively cheap cable and just see if the idea is viable. Then buy some bigger ones to put next to it as you scale up. Everything else is even easier - you can scale solar farms based more on the labour cost of calling someone out than the minimum possible solar generating unit. Ditto storage. If you were really intent you could literally add 500W to a 10MW solar farm, or one module (probably ~5kWh) to a 10MWh battery.

362:

Pigeon, that really sucks. Maybe nuclear isn't the answer after all.

Or maybe, and I know this is hard, you and Greg and some others could get together and make some kind of collective effort. You could call it the UK Soviet Citizen's Nuclear Power Co-Operative or something, and raise a bunch of money, push a bunch of politicians, maybe even form a subsidiary political party or something, then as a group build a power plant or persuade your government to build one for you. If the alternative is, as so many people insist, freezing in the dark, surely that's worth doing?

363:

As a mild distraction from all the usual circular arguments about power, Eric Serra tells the secrets of the diva song in The Fifth Element. Short but quite cool.

364:

Difference in perspective, I think. Your country is handily self-sufficient in energy (I assume, since with all that sunlight and uranium and coal it bloody well ought to be), so it's entirely up to yourselves whether the air-conditioners stay on or not. Our country on the other hand gets craploads of gas from Russia, and for some reason or other everyone's bills are doubling and the government is freaking out (giving 400 quid to every household to distract people from twigging that it's the half-arsed solutions engendered by their obsession with privatisation that allowed the situation to arise in the first place, and try and buy themselves some popularity instead). So you have no reason to worry about what happens if some other bugger decides to turn our lights off, whereas we have an urgent and current concern with the prospect.

In the past we have addressed similar concerns by means of guns-and-weaselry-based political fuckery with the countries where the oil wells are. I for one count the consequences of that procedure as a very obvious reason for getting off fossil fuels that has been both obvious and unarguable for a lot longer than the less obvious and more arguable climate-based reasons have.

But the nearest good sites for massive solar farms on the end of a very long wire are in the same countries, or in those next door, so even if we don't do the same thing again we still have to deal with them expecting us to. And the concern is more urgent, since with suppliers of stuff we can generate electricity from there is at least some inherent buffering, whereas with suppliers of actual electricity we get the hit the instant they flick the switch. So that method of getting off fossil fuels involves perpetuating imperialism and wars and causes of war, instead of reducing them. This makes it a bad idea to begin with, and also makes it a more dubious means of ensuring energy supply than things like nuclear plants backing indigenous resources.

365:

It's an interesting example of two (sets of) people with partly-overlapping but mostly distinct fields of expertise relevant to a common aim having distorted and insufficient ideas of what the other can actually do, quite symmetrically. But it's perhaps not much of a distraction, since my immediate thought is to wonder what would have happened if Inva Mula and Eric Senna had tried to fix it up by arguing on Charlie's blog.

366:

I once tried to create an entry for http://nuclearpoweryesplease.org/about.html on wikipedia, to try and even up the heavy "anti" bias in their coverage of matters of nuclear power. It lasted a few days before some bunch of more senior wikipedia wankers decided the subject was "not important enough to be worth mentioning" and deleted it, ignoring my efforts to cite their supposed policy of covering both sides of an argument.

Political activism is one of those innumerable things that are widely considered to be equally possible for all when in fact they require their own specific talents and abilities just as much as things not so considered do. In particular, from my point of view, it is an intensely social activity, whereas I am pretty intensely not social and more likely to be unusually bad at it...

367:

So Hactar designed the Ultimate Weapon.

368:

Re: 'There's probably fewer than 100 individuals who can afford a nuke plant, but billions who can afford a solar one.'

Agree.

A lot of arguments against smaller steps re: energy esp. steps that can be taken by individuals, small and large businesses, etc. make me wonder if anyone in the past tried to apply this same logic to internal combustion engines sometime after railroads became a thing:

'Nah - this ain't ever gonna work for getting people to and from work/church/wherever cuz you'd have to build a super humongous car to fit everyone inside. It'd take centuries to build!'

And then we got all sorts of varieties of vehicles, i.e., semi's, trucks, vans, RVs, sedans, motorbikes, etc.

Ditto for eateries - high priced sit-down, cafe, fast food, deli, pizza home delivery, etc. And everyone I know also has at least one food prep area in their house/apartment. (Saw a '40's movie set in NYC where the script suggested that centralized super-sized cafeterias were the way of the future: everybody would eat all their meals that way - one centralized food service. Nope!)

This ties in with Greg's 'contrariness' about some of the suggestions -- it's a reminder of a valid point and recurring issue: people are likely to continue to want to do their own thing in their own way. To me, this means we need a variety of options not just in energy source but also in scale. And we need to present these options (via mass media esp. films and TV) as already being used in the real world by 'folks like me' - across all age and socioeconomic demographics. The key reason for using these particular media is that they're the easiest and best way to show these options as part of an everyday 'real people, real life' background - you need to build familiarity, knowledge, interest, want! (The sci-tech is important but that's not what's going to sell this.)

Change of topic - back to the Queen:

I watched a couple of Jubilee-related videos on YT mostly to catch some of the entertainment. Really liked the intro with the Queen and Paddy and their musical segue to one of my favorite bands. Good sense of humor. Wonder who decided which artists to invite.

Charlie mentioned that the Queen has a lot of knowledge that probably won't be passed on when she shuffles off her mortal coil and during the celebrations I've been wondering why she hasn't been awarded an honorary doctorate. (Damned, she's probably got sufficient knowledge and mastery of certain parts of English history to have earned a real doctorate. And one doc I saw years ago mentioned that she's always kept good records for history's sake so she's got plenty of data on hand that can be summarized into a dissertation. Yeah, I know she didn't go to college - private tutors only - so she doesn't have any official degrees to leverage toward a PhD.)

369:

the discussion inevitably devolves into one of the following

You omitted arguing about the identity of the One True Programming Language… ;-)

370:

Personally, I have lived without any heating or air conditioning for over 15 years now (max high in my apartment 100° F., max low 40° F.).

In Scotland?

Here in Ontario, I have a friend who stayed in his house during the ice storm for a week without power. Inside temperature was below freezing (about -10, I think) so he left a couple of times during the day to wash/eat somewhere warm before returning to keep an eye on things. It was not a fun week, and he had access to heated spaces. Long-term it might well have killed him (he's in his 70s).

I lived without air conditioning for a couple of decades, and it didn't kill me. Now, I'm much more vulnerable to excessive heat (or cold) especially when I'm ill.

Suffer? Yes. Die? Unlikely.

Die? Quite possibly if they are vulnerable. The average healthy adult will be uncomfortable, the elderly and sick will experience increased mortality.

It may well be a sacrifice worth making, but as one of the potential sacrificees I'd like to know that what I'm doing is helping my grandniece survive, rather than helping a crypto-bro get rich 'mining' bitcoin or Bezos et al buy more yachts. Or even help suburban commuters drive their SUVs 3 hours a day…

371:

Yup. Exactly the scene I was thinking of.

372:

what lessons did some people learn from Watergate?

Don't record conversations. In fact, don't have records.

(And if you do have records, tear them up and flush them down the toilet.)

373:

I'm still waiting for the "can you train bears to operate nuclear power plants" discussion to kick off.

Obviously, grizzly (brown) bears would be a superior option. Their large size and peaceful disposition would make them ideal candidates for the job.

More to the point, anti-nuke protesters will be less likely to hassle ursine power plant operators — just as PETA-type are much less likely to throw paint on leather-clad bikers than they are on elderly fur-wearing women.

374:

Thinking about batteries and storage sites... we have actually got quite a few good sites for that sort of thing already - defunct coal power stations. The sites are huge, so the volume you could enclose in battery sheds that cover the whole site except the inverter hall and switchyard is massive. Only a tiny fraction of that volume was occupied by the few days/weeks buffer of coal the plants used to keep, so you're more than compensated for the lower energy storage density of batteries.

I agree about the obsession with making such facilities using either lithium batteries or some fabulous new technology that doesn't exist yet. It latches on to properties which are important for portable devices and insists on thinking those features are necessary for functions with quite an opposite set of requirements. Weight doesn't matter because the thing is static. Efficiency doesn't matter as long as it's not too awful, because all you have to do is build more solar panels or windmills or whatever to feed it. Storage density doesn't matter as long as it's not too awful, because you're basically replicating the storage capability of sites that used to put aside a tiny part of the available volume for high-density storage whereas now you've got the whole of that volume available to compensate for a lower density. Rapid charging capability doesn't matter because the maximum possible rate of charge you'll have to cope with is still only small compared to the total capacity.

What does matter is that because you do need a huge volume of batteries no matter what you make them out of, you need to be able to make them out of things which are common as muck. And we know quite a few ways to do that already.

The other obsession we need to get rid of is of course the idea that anything built needs to be optimised for making money with electricity supply taking second place. Accountants who whine and moan about building lots and lots of things which hardly ever run at more than a small fraction of their potential capacity are essentially fossil fuel advocates in terms of results.

375:

You omitted arguing about the identity of the One True Programming Language… ;-)

I'd be happy to discuss Smalltalk, Robert... :-)

376:

"'Nah - this ain't ever gonna work for getting people to and from work/church/wherever cuz you'd have to build a super humongous car to fit everyone inside. It'd take centuries to build!'"

Hehe... thing is railways are basically a means of concentrating road vehicles so as to make better use of them. Instead of having separate carts with one ordinary-sized horse each you can tie a load of them together and have a great big horse to pull them all at once. This gets around the problem that an ordinary-sized horse is a bit crap and also a pain in the arse to look after. Only once someone manages to breed a titchy little horse that is as good as a great big one and needs no more looking after than feeding it a bit of petrol now and then, the balance of what makes different things easier is changed back again.

"Ditto for eateries - high priced sit-down, cafe, fast food, deli, pizza home delivery, etc. And everyone I know also has at least one food prep area in their house/apartment."

I've got half an idea that in China a lot of people actually haven't. Instead there are loads of people cooking stuff at stalls in the street and people buy all their eats from them.

"(Saw a '40's movie set in NYC where the script suggested that centralized super-sized cafeterias were the way of the future: everybody would eat all their meals that way - one centralized food service. Nope!)"

I reckon they pinched that idea off the Germans. Did they also include having the meals delivered from the central cookhouse via a network of pneumatic tubes?

377:

"Personally, I have lived without any heating or air conditioning for over 15 years now (max high in my apartment 100° F., max low 40° F.)."

In Scotland?

In Portland, Oregon. Admittedly a milder winter climate than Scotland and even most of England. But I doubt either country has managed the 116° F we had here in the summer of 2021 - nor would they want to...

378:

(And if you do have records, tear them up and flush them down the toilet.)

IQ45 managed the "tear them up" part, but he forgot the rest of your advice. I understand Scotch Tape did well during his administration... :-)

379:

I'm trying to stay out of this because I'm totally sick of it, but Moz said: No, it would probably be worse because it's harder to manage demand on an electricity grid. With gas and oil they can just turn off random bits of the system and all that happens is people whine about queues. Browning or blacking out grid segments can be done, but not easily on a very fine grain.

That statement is wrong on so many levels it's almost impossible to parse out.

It's not only easy to manage a network to deal with sudden loss of supply, networks manage them all the time. You've lived through gigantic cluster fucks of multiple things going wrong all at once many many times and you were completely unaware of them.

Turning off bits of the system is the last resort and we haven't had to do that for decades. However it can be done, done quickly and done at a granularity that keeps hospitals going while the suburb they're embedded in loses supply. Things like aluminium smelters (Tomago smelter uses 10% of all the electricity in NSW) can be asked to shut down, and if they refuse they can be switched off. My water heater gets switched on and off every night. In Victoria switching can be done remotely to the granularity of individual consumers. Switching gets done at the level of individual consumers, street, and suburb every day for maintenance and repair for periods of minutes to weeks absolutely routinely.

If Russia was supplying electrons in the same proportion as they currently supply gas and they shut it off with no warning you wouldn't know. Unless you had the right website open and we're hitting refresh you'd have no idea it had happened. That doesn't mean that their supply wouldn't be useful. Losing that much without warning would mean the spot price would go up and you might even get to a state of lack of reserve if some more generators failed, which would mean questions would be asked and reports written and people would need to explain things, but you still wouldn't be switching off customers.

380:

"The other obsession we need to get rid of is of course the idea that anything built needs to be optimised for making money with electricity supply taking second place. "

COMMUNIST!!!!

But seriously, this is the notion that ensures that privatisation and the "free" market hardly ever work as well as claimed, for the purposes claimed. If you want to suggest that maybe the real purposes are something different, like enriching the already wealthy at the expense of the rest of us, I won't argue.

JHomes.

381:

RE: The Bojo's competency hearing in Parliament.

I'm guessing that reports in the Transpondian media of Bojo's imminent political demise are tales told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing? Presumably he can do a dead cat bounce at the end of this freefall and rebound into the next crisis?

382:

Pigeon said: I've got half an idea that in China a lot of people actually haven't. Instead there are loads of people cooking stuff at stalls in the street and people buy all their eats from them.

https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1010094/for-the-takeout-hungry%2C-shanghais-lockdown-is-a-pressure-cooker

You're more than half right. A lot of Shanghaiese were caught flat footed by the lockdown. They literally can't boil an egg. If you follow Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 @RealSexyCyborg you'll have seen her rundown on the situation, and she's not happy.

383:

It's not only easy to manage a network to deal with sudden loss of supply, networks manage them all the time.

So when South Australia lost some its generation and a couple of power lines a while ago nothing happened and no-one noticed?

If Russia was supplying electrons in the same proportion as they currently supply gas and they shut it off with no warning you wouldn't know.

Australian Energy Statistics 2021 Energy Update Report [PDF] says "> Fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) accounted for 93 per cent of Australia’s primary energy mix in 2019–20.

Losing a third of that without warning would be dramatic. And involve aliens stealing our coal and oil production facilities. It would likely mean the 80% of electricity supply that is fossil based would stop. All of it. Suddenly. Unless it was those pesky anti-nuclear folk turning off the sun, in which case we'd have other problems. But that's not "primary energy" according to the regulator so it doesn't count.

But you know way more about this than I do, so I'm happy to take your word that no-one would notice an 80% drop in electricity supply for a few months.

384:

I omitted the programming language strange attractor because I tend to glaze over and scroll past that discussion in all the threads. I'm glad people are really, really into programming languages, but my brain goes into white noise whenever I try to pay attention to them in any detail. I've learned a bit of programming here and there, but once I stop using it I forget it quickly.

Now, give me a 6 hour podcast about shared weights and measures in the Indus Valley civilization 2000 BCE and for some reason I pay attention to all the details.

Human brains are weird and diverse I guess.

385:

You omitted arguing about the identity of the One True Programming Language

Why argue about a settled matter?

386:

I said: If Russia was supplying electrons in the same proportion as they currently supply gas and they shut it off with no warning you wouldn't know.

Moz said: But you know way more about this than I do, so I'm happy to take your word that no-one would notice an 80% drop in electricity supply for a few months.

Russia supplies 40% of Europe's gas, and gas is 24% of their energy needs.

So just under 10% of Europe's energy comes from Russian gas.

The total generation capacity of Liddell is 2 GW. That represents about 12% of the 16.7 GW total generation capacity. Some years Liddell has operated less than 50% of the time. Did you notice?

Did you notice the day that Liddell went down, the gas backup couldn't be started and the Tomago smelter refused to shut down? Combined with record temperatures and the highest consumer load on record? The same day that one of the Newcastle generators reached its temperature limit and had to throttle?

The network operator was having kittens, but the consumers never knew.

387:

Moz @ 359
Our incompetent misgovernment are doing absolutely fuck all to solve the problem(s)
Plenty can & should be done, but that's down to the politicians, isn't it?
We have two (?) unbelievably-expensive large "nuke" power stations under build, nothing about the "RR" SMR's and absolutely bugger-all else - as far as I can see.

Rbt Prior
"Protestors" - I will repeat my anger at the stupidity & ignorance & selfish cowardice of the "anti-slavery" protestors who topple statues & hassle people whose ancestors, over 200 years ago, who might have made money from slavery .......
.... Whilst carefully NOT protesting outside the nearest PRC Embassy or any of the "Gulf" states, who are practicing slavery today, right now (!)

gasdive
Turning off bits of the system is the last resort and we haven't had to do that for decades. - tell that to the Texans?

H
Bo Jon-Sun is a Dead man walking
When the bye-elections later this month happen, the shit will really be in the air-con.
James II & VII lasted more than 3, less than 4 years - B J-S will be the same.
Here's hoping for another "Glorious Revolution"

  • Insert modern version of the famous "Protestant" loyal toast here (!)
388:

Lithium batteries are ideal for transport because they are relatively light, as inherently heavy things go.

I read somewhere* last week that some car battery manufacturers are looking at mixing in a few sodium cells with the lithium as a cost saving exercise, with the tech expected to be mature enough that they can start pretty much straight away.

Vanadium redox batteries have been seen in the wild as a town level backup supply but they really are immense. The ability to scale up storage by adding tanks of liquid looks appealing though.

If you want energy density and the ability to make your kit from sea water then researchers at Stanford have created a working "sodium metal-chlorine" cell that doesn't sound like a horrifying accident waiting to happen at all**.

I don't believe that it's possible to build out enough storage to completely smooth our renewable supply but it looks a lot more feasible to handle short blips as soon as you forget about lithium.

can't find the article. *For extra points: Why not try a liquid sodium or NaK - chlorine flow battery?

389:

Broken formatting. Should have previewed that.

390:

Greg said: tell that to the Texans?

Moz and I are in NSW, so I was talking about that network. It's the one I'm most familiar with because I've lived most of my life in NSW, I've worked either as a contractor or employee for the network for 20 years, my partner since she was 15. She's now 58. I had brunch with the manager of planned outages on Sunday. I get invited to kids birthday parties by people who are actual network controllers.

It's slightly annoying to be told that I don't know anything about it.

Electricity networks can be resilient, but nothing is immune to the effects of politics, hubris, kleptocracy and stupidity in equal measure. Texas made a conscious decision to make their network delicate. Its not inherent in networks.

391:

dpb said: cell that doesn't sound like a horrifying accident waiting to happen at all

I'm constantly amused by the idea that electrochemical = unstoppable horror, while oil based fires are a gentle marshmallow toasting opportunity that can be put out with a harsh look and a stern word.

This popped up in my feed. An oil spill that caught fire. (sound on)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1533574532169990145

392:

Oh I agree that hydrocarbon fires are pretty horrible too. Don't particularly want either sited next to residential areas. That makes the "old power station site" idea valid.

I have a number of friends in the water treatment industry, and more than one of them has had a near miss with chlorine storage. The problem is that it's fairly mundane, boring stuff and nobody takes it seriously. Throw in privatised industry maintenance standards and a mildly (but not frighteningly) corrosive nature and you will have problems 15 years down the line.

It's not a deal breaker, as such things never are but you have to assume that the technology will be implemented in a half assed manner and site accordingly.

393:

Oil-based fires, indeed nearly all carbon-fuel fires (absent explosives and solid-fuel rocket mixes) can be put out by depriving them of oxygen and cooling the as-yet unburnt parts so they don't light off in turn. Electric battery fires are self-sustaining, the energy in the cells wants to be free and atmospheric oxygen is not a factor. At best the battery pack designs slow down or stop the spread of fire damage to other cells if a fire starts in one cluster of cells. There isn't anything practical firefighters can do on site at an electrical car fire other than try and prevent the fire setting something adjacent alight - the new toy in the firefighters arsenal is a car-sized fire blanket they throw over the burning car (hopefully after getting the passengers out, and their little dog too).

394:

The "nearest good sites for massive solar farms on the end of a very long wire" are in fact in Spain.

395:

It's slightly annoying to be told that I don't know anything about it.

I hope you're not suggesting I did that to you. You said something that I know isn't true, so I gave you an example of it not being true. You don't have to like that, but it's different from me telling you that you don't know anything.

396:

since all the other available alternatives (viz, Communism and Fascism) had so manifestly failed.

Insert bitter laugh here, having watched countries led by GW Bush, Berlusconi, Putin, Orban, Trump, Johnson, and so on. Fascism always wins for the leader and their clan. It might not win long-term for the country, but Fascists these days tend not to be hung from lamp posts when they're deposed, so there's no obvious downside for a sociopath.

And the history of the last century proves beyond doubt that liberal democracy is at best an unstable equilibrium. All it needs is one rabble-rouser and one media outlet prepared to give them credibility to restore Business As Usual. Which is either Fascism or at best an oligarchy.

397:

"It's not only easy to manage a network to deal with sudden loss of supply, networks manage them all the time. You've lived through gigantic cluster fucks of multiple things going wrong all at once many many times and you were completely unaware of them."

Unfortunately we don't all have perfect electricity supply networks

https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/uk-power-cut-hornsea-wind-3196187

398:

I said you wouldn't notice a disruption of that scale.

You wouldn't, you haven't. Disruptions of that scale happen all the time. Half the time in NSW exists under that sort of interruption to generation. Did you notice the lack of reserve level 2 that was forecast for today? Are you worried that we are forecast to have a LOR1 from 0730 to 0800 tomorrow? Think there will be rolling blackouts? Think about it at all?

Now should there be a wholesale destruction of infrastructure due to a gigantic storm, as happened in SA, then, maybe yeah, but that wasn't what was under discussion. The premise was that if you buy electricity from Johnny Foreigner then they can flick a switch and destroy your country in an instant. It's simply not true because such switch flicking happens all the time under normal operation.

399:

Not the same thing at all. That's a lack of inertia and or incorrectly set trip settings, and or incorrectly designed feeders. It didn't do what we're talking about, ie, put the whole network into an unstable state, or require load shedding. It was 2% of the network. It's not acceptable, and shouldn't happen, but it's really a very different thing.

400:

Local disruptions to grid connections can be fixed locally by armies of engineers repairing the switches and cables in a day or two, a week at most. When Johnny Foreigner flicks some switches and cuts us off from OUR cheap electricity supply the armies sent out to fix the problem are not engineers, they're soldiers and it will take more than a few weeks for the lights to come back on after Johnny Foreigner is taught a lesson.

There's a dollar cost to energy reliability and self-sufficiency of generating capacity within stable regional borders, but if imports of gas and electricity are cheap enough for long enough that dollar cost can be ignored at least until the Black Swan flies over and poops in everyone's teacup.

401:

You have statues of Chinese political entrepreneurs and Oil-state Emirs in your town squares now? I mean, I know they, along with Russian billionaires, are buying the place these days but I didn't think it had gotten that far...

402:

Sure, armies. Or, by paying a fair market price. Whichever floats your paranoia.

Because we send armies when we need to buy cars, or a new transformer, or a nuclear containment vessel, a shipment of mobile phones, or electricity. That's how it works. Apparently.

403:

Watched the news recently? Screwing with other countries energy supplies for fun & profit is very much a live issue.

404:

Actually, there's some evidence that that's exactly what he did. Staff repeatedly found wads of printed paper clogging White House residence toilets, and Trump himself kept complaining about how modern toilets keep clogging.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/02/donald-trump-clogged-toilets

405:

Now, give me a 6 hour podcast about shared weights and measures in the Indus Valley civilization 2000 BCE and for some reason I pay attention to all the details.

Come now, where's the link? You can't just tease us with neat stuff like that and not give a link!

406:

Nojay's premise is that if Scotland was buying electricity from Russia, Norway, Sweden, Germany, France, Spain, and unnamed North African countries, that if any of them flicks a switch, Scotland would send armies to take our rightful electricity.

Therefore, Scotland must be completely free of any imports. Otherwise war or death from cold are the only two possible outcomes.

I've pointed out that no one supplier cutting off supply would cause the instant collapse that everyone here seems to think. So unlike the current situation with Russia, the consumer wouldn't notice.

Additionally, if they did cut supply, then they'd get no back flow of electricity when they need it most (very much cutting their own nose off).

Beyond that, I've previously pointed out that picking on electricity makes no sense. Noone worried about depending on Russian gas, (for which it seems there aren't easy alternatives) as no one worries about chips, food, oil (both cooking and driving), reactor parts, aircraft parts, car parts, clothing and a million other things that modern life in Scotland depends on and which all come from overseas, much of it from only one country. No one cares about that, but apparently buying electricity, unique amongst commodities, must all be made in Scotland (not even imported from England). We won't mention that the preferred option is to build lots of reactors, which depend on parts from China for their continued operation.

407:

There is no "fair market price", there is the price your monopoly supplier of electricity says you must pay or no power, in the case of a generation system far away and thousands of kilometres of HVDC lines connecting you to your source of renewable electricity.

You could, of course, build two or more such generating arrays in different nations and even more HVDC lines, "just in case" but eventually having the generating capacity in-house within your own borders and an assured fuel supply[1] available from many, many places starts to look a better and better option.

[1]Uranium can be extracted from seawater, at a cost greater than the current minehead price of yellowcake from various places around the world. The price of uranium does not affect the cost of nuclear-generated electricity much -- doubling the price of yellowcake would increase the cost of nuclear electricity by about 1 cent US per kWh.

408:

PS, I pointed out in 2020 that a diverse supply is not only needed for reasons of security, but simply to deal with fluctuations in supply and demand, and eliminate the need for storage. Also that the supply would be far more diverse than many essential commodities, including (prophetically) Russian gas.

http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2020/12/holding.html#comment-2111065

It's important to also remember that like trade of food, you wouldn't trade only with one country. You'd trade with Australia, Canada, Morocco, the USA, South Africa and others. Yes, you'd be dependent on trade to survive, but that's already the case. Russian gas, European food, Middle Eastern oil, Australian Uranium. So though you might be using 180 GW, it need not all come from Australia. Indeed it couldn't unless you add storage.

409:

tell that to the Texans?

Yes. That one sounded strange to me also. I guess where he is they haven't done that.

Here in NC the power company will pay you $25 or $50 one time to allow them to put a cutoff on your whole house AC. If you go with it they might turn off your AC for up to 2 hours once a day to deal with generation shortages.

410:

If I did it as a community project and made one big enough to heat the whole street, it would be a lot quicker

Don't anybody, for the love of Cthulhu, give Pigeon a copy of The Leaky Establishment by Dave Langford!

411:

There's no monopoly. This exists only in your imagination.

You have a bidding table. The demand is forecast for the next 5 minutes. It's open to generators to bid into that table. Bids are accepted in order of price up to the point where enough generation is committed to cover the next 5 minute interval. At that point everyone under that price generates and is paid the highest accepted bid price. If I am running a solar farm in Morocco, I might bid zero as I have no marginal cost. My little 12 GW solar farm can't fill the needs. Say wind is down, so it's nuclear. The nuclear bids 1000 pounds per MWH. They are the highest accepted bid. I sell 12 GW for 1/12th of an hour, that's 1000 MWh, I make a million pounds in 5 minutes. Then the wind blows, the wind farms bid 10 pounds per MWh and are the highest accepted bid, I get paid 10,000 pounds in 5 minutes.

413:

"Oil-based fires, indeed nearly all carbon-fuel fires (absent explosives and solid-fuel rocket mixes) can be put out by depriving them of oxygen and cooling the as-yet unburnt parts so they don't light off in turn"

Car fires often trap drivers or passengers inside the burning vehicle and can do a whole lot of damage before the water arrives.

You can't just hop out and connect to a nearby hydrant with the fire hose you just happen to have in the trunk. Hydrants are few and far between on inter city highways.

We had two gasoline (petrol) powered vehicles catch fire on southern Vancouver Island just yesterday. Both vehicles were totaled and one driver was trapped and only saved because a heroic off duty fire fighter was nearby and risked his life to make the rescue. Amazingly police suspect alcohol might just possibly have been involved.

Bottom line is that concentrating energy in any form has risks. Battery fires are fairly new to fire fighters in my part of the world, as are all-electric vehicles. Give them a bit of time and they will figure out the best approach.

414:

They HAVE worked out the best approach, and that's simply to get out the people you can, make a firebreak if possible, and let the damn thing burn out. Indeed, elementary physics indicates that is ALL that is possible, unless you have a supply of enough coolant (usually water) to cool the thing down to room temperature and keep it there. That requires an order of magnitude more water than for oil fires which, as Nojay says, can often be extinguished with the amount of water held in a fire engine or few.

One reason that there has not been more trouble is that there are so few electric cars on the road, and most of them use batteries that go overboard on safety. The former is intended to change, and the latter will if they become a commodity vehicle without draconian legislation (of which I see no signs in the UK).

415:

You mean like the V\@*xh\@ll ~~firelighter~~ Z\@f1r\@ which can catch light without anyone being in it (I've not seen one go on fire, but I've gone into a store, and come out 15 minutes later to find an unsavable and fortunately unoccupied blase.

416:

Wow. Three recalls in 4 years, for fire problems? Eek!

417:

In Scotland?

Low: 40f / High: 100f

That's not Scotland, at least as I know it.

In quainte olde worlde temperature units called fahrenheits, you'd be looking for annual variation from roughly 10-20f (low, on a cold winter's night) up to maybe 90f (all-time high on a midsummer afternoon in a heat wave).

Mostly in winter you'd be looking at daytime highs of 30-40f, and nighttimes somewhere below that.

Oh, and nights up to 18 hours long.

The takeaway is that aircon is mostly unnecessary -- I have a portable a/c unit for the 1-2 weeks a year when my office is unpleasantly muggy (over 20 celsius) -- but heating is an absolute necessity in winter unless you enjoy frozen pipes and the resulting leaks.

418:

Greg: recent reports suggest SMRs are really bad in terms of nuclear waste management -- here's an IAEA paper discussing the SMR waste problem. Turns out they may produce up to 30x as much high level waste as conventional larger reactors per TWh of power output.

(It's not just fission products from spent fuel, but waste from secondary irradiation of reactor structural components like the pressure vessels.)

This doesn't mean SMRs are impossible or should be forgotten (we're going to need them to keep bulk freight container shipping going once it's no longer possible to burn bunker oil in shops) but it does put an extra obstacle in the way.

419:

I don't think you ever bid zero. The energy might be flowing for free, but you still have to cover payroll, land taxes, equipment upkeep, whatever part of your transmission network you're responsible for, and the investors' expected profit.

That said, I think that the auction of power is an important function, and I'm glad you brought it up.

I'd also note that battery peaker systems (store energy when it's cheap, dole it out when you can make a profit) can also work on an auction. However, I think those tend to be owned and operated by the power companies, who are trying to balance the supply against the demand.

One huge category of solutions should actually come out of the Orthodox Jewish community. For decades, they've had all sorts of interesting timers on things, so that they can observe the "no work on the sabbath" rule while still having the lights on and their coffee brewed (it's not work if you set it up before sundown on Friday and clean it up after sundown on Saturday).

We really should mainstream such systems, so that clothes get washed when the home solar's generating a lot of energy, smart slow cookers time their efforts to the power available, and so forth, even when the residents aren't home. This avoids the current problem of demand skyrocketing in the evening when people come home and turn on all their appliances. This is also where home batteries become extremely useful.

Yes, the elements already exist, and if I was stupid enough to go for a fully enabled IoT house, it would be easy, almost as easy as someone hacking such a system. I'd rather keep such automation as simple and durable as possible, not hook it up to an internet-connected chipset running Windows 3 with no way to upgrade or change the password.

Finally, as you might guess, this is why I'm doing my little environmentalist lobbying effort to try to persuade municipalities to work with major employers to install more electric vehicle chargers in their parking lots. I've even suggest valet parking for e-cars as an amenity. It's not to be cushy, it's so that they can charge more cars with fewer chargers by leaving the keys with a couple of guys who manage charging operations for the day. We'll see if it works. Transportation locally is about half our energy budget, so figuring out ways to get cars sucking sunshine without installing massive battery systems to do it at home is kind of important.

420:

With temperatures approaching zero Fahreheit not being unknown in some places, even if not frequent.

421:

30x the waste of a big reactor still isn't very much per capita.

422:

»still isn't very much per capita.«

...where the footnote is that more than quarter of those people were too mentally deranged to use masks during a pandemic ?

Not a good argument.

423:

the discussion inevitably devolves into one of the following

Well, we've also had discussions about things like FTL, time travel, colonizing other planets, and building starships.

Turns out, having an advanced technological system successfully colonize Earth is embarrassingly hard, never mind space travel or colonizing Mars. It's embarrassing because our less technological ancestors pulled off the trick for the last 300,000-odd years (mostly during an ice age!). Now we come arrogantly along like any tech bro, bragging how we'll do it right for a change after everyone did it wrong previously, and...(looks around)...when that doesn't work, we spread toxic memes about how humans are all innately evil and deserve to die to cover up how absolutely, monumentally, and predictably we've screwed up by thinking progress will let us ignore all the problems our ancestors dealt with.

Anyway, you could, if you felt charitable, cast the current discussions about food, power, and water, as discussions about how to run Earth as a generation ship. It might even be possible too, unlike establishing a Muskite dynasty on Mars. Fortunately, unlike the older discussions about generation ships, we no longer have the enthusiastic lads arguing that the only way to make it work is to establish a vicious and absolute authoritarian system with the right to kill anybody whose needs are more than one standard deviation from the norm. So that's progress, at least. I guess seeing the beta versions of these systems scared some people off?

Actually, the only reason not to bring up FTL is because the cosmologists have been sadly unproductive for the last couple of years, so there's no new chiropterofecal psychoses out there to point to, snark, and wonder if this one will let us get around the light speed limit.*

*Oops, spoke too soon, it looks like His Holiness Elon I has deigned to talk about warp drives. Wonder what pearls of wisdom he's dropping? Oh, and it looks like some people at NASA are toking from the same stash. So we can pull the warp drive strange attractor out, if anyone gets bored with energy. That might amuse.

424:

Well, exactly; I'm all-in on the "Smalltalk is the best programming system and the only actually object oriented one" but let's be realistic here.

The One True Programming Language is profanity. Always has been, always will be.

425:

Low: 40f / High: 100f

Those were temperatures inside my apartment. The outside temperatures were quite different...

426:

Eateries - now you're either being facetious, or ignorant. Marx talked about large apartment buildings with a building kitchen, so that the women could share the work. Please note, this was the mid-19th century, and we are talking wood or coal stoves, period. And no refrigerators, so daily shopping, etc.

Now, eaten out, or had takeout, or had it delivered lately? How many people do that a lot? How many people hit the fast food joint EVERY WEEKDAY for breakfast, or dinner?

427:

Why? The OTPL is C. (And the computer you're posting from is running an o/s mostly in C....)

428:

Basic needs utilities (in the 21st century) - electricity, water, sewer, gas (for some of us), phone and 'net access, SHOULD NEVER BE PRIVATE CORPORATIONS. Government run, own, and operated ONLY.

Disagree? Quick, how much is the CEO of the companies that run any of that for you making... and is it more than the official salary of the President of the US, $440k/yr? What was the company's profits last year?

429:

Would you stop snarking as an automatic response, and actually consider before posting?

No monopoly? In '68, during the occupation of Columbia U by the students, going through the U president's files, what they found was not a "conspiracy", but one dirty hand washing the other.

Think I'm wrong? Argue with FACTS: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/13/oil-traders-to-store-millions-of-barrels-at-sea-as-prices-slump.html

430:

A partial exception to the battery fire issue is electrolyte flow cells, where a replaceable electrolyte generates the PD as it flows past a membrane: you can in principle keep the giant-ass vats of electrolytes away from the membrane and provide spillways/diluent reservoirs/diverter valves so that if something does go "bang" in the cell you can deprive it of access to 99% of the available chemical energy.

431:

Humans have no sense of scale. I honestly do think a lot of people have images of enormous radioactive spoil heaps like the giant piles of fly ash left over from coal plants.

Relatively small amounts of really nasty waste aren't that difficult to deal with if you can afford the infrastructure to make it in the first place.

It also applies to the car attractor - I am convinced that most people have no idea how much fuel they really burn.

Holding a nozzle for 5 minutes for every few hours of driving fills an opaque tank hidden somewhere in the car and the exhaust is mostly invisible. At that point the quantity is just numbers.

432:

Well, the giant piles of fly ash are radioactive spoil heaps, but nobody cares.

433:

And the computer you're posting from is running an o/s mostly in C....

Which is doubtless one of the many reasons it has so many bugs... :-/

434:

"Here in NC the power company will pay you $25 or $50 one time to allow them to put a cutoff on your whole house AC. If you go with it they might turn off your AC for up to 2 hours once a day to deal with generation shortages."

I think that sort of thing is reasonably common in the US. In San Antonio, TX about ten years ago we got a "smart" thermostat from the power company that would do that. It was never very obtrusive because, being thermophiles, we don't use AC much and, for whatever reason, it didn't kick in in the winter. Would have been interesting to see what it did in Feb 2021, but we were long gone by then.

435:

The problems with nuclear power are not technical, but political. For example, the UK hid its incompetence and negligence behind the Official Secrets Act, and made little effort to fix the problems, which is the main reason that people distrust it. Yes, coal is MUCH worse, but you need to understand statistics to realise that.

To a great extent, that is true for the car debate, too. Going electric reduces the urban atmospheric pollution problem, but is an evasion of most other problems rather than a solution. But people won't face up to the fact that we need to reduce our transport use rather than just replace our currently disastrous use by something rather less so.

436:

I am still recovering from COVID so work is on hiatus, but once I finish this goddamn novella I have to dust off the long overdue space opera (started in 2015, paused in 2017 due to my father dying, steamrollered by other projects in the meantime).

Setting it 650K years hence means not worrying about terraforming -- it's a trivial detail compared to "hey, what kind of speciation will have happened to the hominidae across 0.65MYa and ten million terrestrial biosphere derived terraformed planets" -- although the FTL model I'm going with is a variant wormhole mechanism, otherwise it'd be limited to a much smaller number of colonized worlds.

But still, I see plenty of interesting and ugly aspects of hominin socialization to explore in such a deep time context. Including religion: where'd it come from (I favour Daniel Dennett's line of argument) and how will it be manipulated by billions of Musk-alikes over nearly a megayear of CRISPR (and better tech) assisted attempts to design a better servant caste?

437:

I note that one way to "reduce transport use" is to switch to smaller or lighter vehicles.

Even for those of us who can't really ride a bike, lightweight electrically assisted quadricycles ought to be able to replace a goodly chunk of local car journeys, i.e. most of them, by replacing a 1000-2000kg vehicle with a 50-100kg vehicle. The energy savings of which should be bleeding obvious.

AIUI a typically "family car" these days is a crossover or SUV, whereas 40-50 years ago it was something like a VW Polo. The Polo was relatively inefficient in terms of fuel economy compared to the modern engines in the Crossover/SUV class ... but the latter weigh twice as much and go about the same distance per litre as a result, while creating a much greater hazard for other road users (pedestrians, cyclists, smaller vehicles).

438:

> In San Antonio, TX about ten years ago we got a "smart" thermostat from the power company...

Still there, it seems.

https://www.cpsenergy.com/en/my-home/savenow/efficiency-programs/smart-thermostat.html

Through a Smart Thermostat, you agree to allow us to make adjustments to your thermostat during “conservation events.” This is when our system reaches peak demand. This will likely happen several times during the summer months and typically occurs between the hours of 3 p.m. and 7 p.m., Monday through Friday. During conservation events, you can opt out through your thermostat or smart phone app at any time and return to your normal settings. Conservation events don’t occur very often, but they are crucial in managing the energy needs of our community.

439:

How would you keep a dog or a cat on Arrakis in Frank Herbert's Dune series?

440:

Pigeon @ 365:

Who's Eric Senna?

441:

EC
And/or CHANGE our transport use?
I still have the Great Green Beast, but ....
The problem is that when I really need a "car" I need an "estate" of some sort, but I'm doing an awful lot of electric cycling, now.
Living in outer London, public transport is available - the rest of the countryside, not so much, thank you fucking Marples & all his successors.

442:

No, that's because they hired kids right out of school to do most of the coding, who have zero idea of error handling or input verification. Oh, and who think while loops are better than for/next.

443:

I've even suggest valet parking for e-cars as an amenity. It's not to be cushy, it's so that they can charge more cars with fewer chargers by leaving the keys with a couple of guys who manage charging operations for the day.

Locally there's a Tesla charging setup for a dozen or so cars (they can also charge a few non Tesla cars) in the nearby Target. (A US department store.) There is an unpublished policy that if you park next to a car being charged and leave your charging port open most folks will move the plug to your car when they leave.

A friend who lives nearby (retired) will park his Chevy Volt (?) there over night and walk home. Then walk back in the am to pick up his fully charged car. He may not keep it up when he has to start paying. :)

444:

Well, we've also had discussions about things like FTL, time travel, colonizing other planets, and building starships.

Space cadet thinking. Which the rest of your comment is mostly about. Indirectly.

445:

Holding a nozzle for 5 minutes for every few hours of driving fills an opaque tank hidden somewhere in the car and the exhaust is mostly invisible. At that point the quantity is just numbers.

Everyone who drives should have to at least once siphon some gasoline via a tube and their mouth sucking on it to get it started. Almost a lock they will get some in their mouth. Then burp it every few minutes for a few hours. Accompanied by a great feeling in their stomach.

You REMEMBER such a thing.

You're in a field, gas cans are empty, tractor is empty, so you get some from the truck tank. Burp.

446:

Yes, coal is MUCH worse, but you need to understand statistics to realise that.

Actually statistics doesn't matter to many of those folks. Immediate possible little harm they pay attention to. Possible big harm way out in the future, they ignore. Or can't comprehend. I think it is in how are brains are wired or socialized.

447:

A couple of notes on this.

First off, if you're experimenting with human genomics and cultural inheritance, you're experimenting with systems where the experiments last longer than the experimenters do. Coincidentally (not!), that's the kind of thing I learned a bit about working with as an ecologist. If you want to email or chat, you know how to get in touch. Multigenerational experiments, in themselves, has a fairly unholy ability to spawn subplots if you're in need of them. And remember that we're talking about multiple generations of experimenters and of subjects.

Second, you are entitled to you preferred explanation for religion, but I think that any writer who believes that the JCI spectrum of practice is normal for humans has a bad case of CRIS and deserves to be read exceptionally skeptically. To give a trivial example, other cultures with writing-based religions came up with extremely different ideas about what it's all about (cf Buddhism, Taoism, and Confucianism, for three alternatives).

If you want to see a broader picture, I strongly recommend Lynne Kelly's Memory Craft and its predecessors. She's an out atheist too, but her point is that "religion" in the broadest sense is entirely about storing essential information without writing*. Since the tools of religion are based on human biology, they won't go away. These include memory palaces like the Garden of Eden or various visions of heaven that explain what a proper world is supposed to be like, songs and rituals that are more memorable than dense texts, rituals and dances that more efficiently encode nonverbal information than text does, holy sites that are part of songlines, etc. The critical point is that the tools of religion can be manipulated to store the essential cultural information that combines with genetic information and setting to make people who they are.

When you have writing to store information, then that frees up the tools of religion to be used for other purposes, which is where we are now. And if the tools of religion and cultural creation can be deliberately designed in concert with someone tweaking genomes, you've got a very powerful story engine to play with.

Have fun.

*One thing to realize is that in many "primitive religions," the loremasters knew full well that stuff was made up. But they took it seriously, not because they were stupid, but because the systems worked to transmit information. That contrasted very strongly with the missionaries who often superstitiously believed in the stuff in the book without understanding it very well. But they had guns backing them up, which once again demonstrates that idiots backed up by superior technology just become more powerful idiots, not necessarily intelligent or wise people.

448:

Even for those of us who can't really ride a bike, lightweight electrically assisted quadricycles ought to be able to replace a goodly chunk of local car journeys, i.e. most of them, by replacing a 1000-2000kg vehicle with a 50-100kg vehicle.

In my limited experience in Europe I saw what seemed to me a lot of small cars. Some one person car. I got to wondering why none seem to exist in the US. I now think it has to do with crash and passenger survival requirements in the US crash testing standards. Lots of small cars is good. A few small cars surrounded by larger cars is maybe not so good for the small car owners.

40-50 years ago

I suspect that in the US while the average car size is about the same it is split between smaller sedans and larger SUVs. Way back then nearly all cars where large. And many passenger cars got, maybe 20mpg, compared to 30 today. But the large SUVs now bring down the average.

449:

»I got to wondering why none seem to exist in the US.«

There are entire towns in Florida where almost everybody drives one-person small (electrical!) cars.

For reasons which will confuse the shit out of future archaeologists, they call these vehicles "Golf-carts".

450:

Charlie @ 437, I've been thinking along those lines observing the use of bike lanes in Los Angeles whose main purpose is virtue signaling. A typical bike lane consists of a 80 cm wide strip painted between the parking lane and the traffic lane with a posted speed limit of 60-70 km/hr. You have cars whizzing by you on one side and some idiot who can open his door in your path in the other. (I'm surprised they haven't thought of introducing bike lanes onto freeways.)

Needless to say, the most common feature of bike lanes in Los Angeles is that they are empty.

However, with a bit of effort they could be turned into a useful transportation system. I would broaden out the concept of bike lanes, both literally and figuratively, to handle a variety of vehicles whose top speed is 40 km/hr. These would include bicycles, powered bikes, low-powered scooters, tricycles, and golf buggies.

If you look at Los Angeles layout, in a general theoretical sense, it resembles graph paper with every 10th line bold. The intermediate lines are suburban streets with a max. speed limit of 40 km/hr, and the traffic flows out of these streets to the main multilane roads with speed limits of up to 85 km/hr.

If you now think in terms of the graph paper with an intermediate thickness line every 5 squares, then these streets would be converted into "narrow-fares" specifically designed to handle light-class through traffic. Lane width would less than with ordinary traffic lanes. Clearance would be in the order of two meter 20cm so building an underpass under a major road would be a lot cheaper and easier. (Note: these streets would still have to take cars and trucks to service the roadside property, but they could be discouraged from treating it as a thoroughfare.)

Now Los Angeles is a lot different from a city build around a medieval center, but those narrow winding streets are a good match for this class of traffic.

Many cities in Europe have slowed traffic right down in there city centers to encourage bike use, but the problem with this approach is that it still mixes bikes and cars together, whereas as the system I'm proposing separates them as much as possible. Also, this system would be suitable for lightweight automated delivery vehicles.

451:

Kardashev @ 434:

Around here it started with a remote shut-off for hot water heaters. The idea was they would cut off the water heater in the afternoon when there was peak demand for A/C.

I would have signed up for it if I'd had an electric water heater.

Don't have central air, so I'm not eligible for that program either.

452:

Bonus points for doing this with leaded gas or diesel!

453:

First off, if you're experimenting with human genomics and cultural inheritance, you're experimenting with systems where the experiments last longer than the experimenters do.

Yup, I'm aware of that. (I also have a sneaking suspicion that the sort of folks who would want to create a genetically distinct servant caste are likely to end up in an extinction trap long before their servants, although quantifying that intuition gets me into a maze of twisty little assumptions, recomplicating endlessly.)

I note this study suggests the posterior medial frontal cortex modulates adherence to ideological beliefs (such as religious ones) and can be tweaked by transcranial magnetic stimulation. It's a bit hand-wavey but if it turns out there are gross neuroanatomical features that function in this way, then a sufficiently advanced genetic science might be used to fiddle with it, for example to increase susceptibility to such beliefs. Which could be convenient for a self-appointed "master race" seeking to live off the labour of their worshippers. Ahem. (The precise shape of the belief systems in question is possibly less important than the whole "worship people who look like this, they are your gods" hackery.)

455:

Systematically inducing Stockholm Syndrome might be easier, especially if one knows the genomes of the victims in advance, and what ritualized set of actions will best induce subordinance and compliance. Ritualized, in this case, is a synonym for experimental protocol.

From what I was reading recently, it looks like the North American system of captive treatment (capture, kill the resistant adults, brutalize the rest, make them "other" to their culture, and train them up as subordinates in the society) certainly looks like Stockholm Syndrome. And yes, it wasn't limited to the Iroquois and Plains Societies either. Is it slavery, adoption, peonage, or all three?

Another interesting issue is that some cultures may see experimentation on self as ethical, experimentation on others as unethical, while other cultures will completely flip these ethics. Both sides will likely regard each other with loathing. It might not be cladogenesis, but instead schismogenesis: those who have been caught up in others' experiments may regard the freedom to experiment on oneself alone as essential, possibly with mentors or teachers helping to ameliorate risk. This seems to be the Taoist position (under the rubric of avoiding karma by avoiding coercing others, merely suggesting). One could probably make a fairly decent argument for reshaping others on an objective basis as ethical too, without invoking slavery.

456:

Still, there are numerous obscure ways in the C programming language to accidentally do horrible things...

457:

Re: 'Instead of having separate carts with one ordinary-sized horse each you can tie a load of them together ...'

Forgot to list 'ride-share' as one of the increasingly common options. Also know of one corp (MSFT) that had (maybe still has) some buses so that their employees can commute from different parts around the Seattle area. Their campuses also have interesting/varied lunchrooms - several different cuisines (private chefs/eateries) plus vending machines filled with assortments of snacks and sandwiches (mostly for-free). I'm guessing that like a lot of younger Shanghai workers - who also put in a lot of hours at work/the office - the MSFT folks I knew also rarely cooked 'at home' or brown-bagged their lunches/snacks. Also - their main campuses are in the middle of nowhere - therefore limited access to off-campus fast food joints/restaurants unless you're willing to waste a lot of time driving. I've mostly worked at/with multinationals and it seems that the ambitious or high-profile dept types mostly ate out. Even the few 'foodies' seldom did their own cooking at home - they owned all the gadgets but seldom had the time to use the gadgets.

Re: 'Did they also include having the meals delivered from the central cookhouse via a network of pneumatic tubes?'

Nope - I saw this movie on TV when I was a kid and remember only that particular scene because it looked so weird. (Don't remember the name of the movie or actors.)

Whitroth @426:

'How many people do that a lot? How many people hit the fast food joint EVERY WEEKDAY for breakfast, or dinner?'

I personally know several - colleagues, friends and mostly male. One female colleague told me at the retirement luncheon we had for her that she has never cooked a meal in her life - she and her husband of 40+ years always ate out. They're both well-educated, live in a posh area, well-traveled, etc. Oh yeah - neither 'came' from money, that's just how they've always preferred to live their lives.

Rocketpjs @ 384:

Re: 'Now, give me a 6 hour podcast about shared weights and measures in the Indus Valley civilization 2000 BCE ...'

How about this?

Unless it's already part of his list of resources, maybe Robert might also find this worth sharing with his teacher colleagues.

Background: This guy (Khan) started his website a few years ago to tutor his nephew. He did a good job and other kids joined in. It quickly grew to the point that he quit his real job (engineer) and registered it as a 501(c)(3) non-profit. It's still growing and has even attracted funding from some high profile foundations. Their purpose/mantra: education is a universal right. (I'm hoping this site is accessible in places like Afghan where girls are have been denied access to education.)

Includes materials/resources for students and teachers. The history videos are approx. 10 minutes long.

https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/world-history/world-history-beginnings#ancient-india

Here's the founder:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sal_Khan

Greg @ 387:

Re: 'When the bye-elections later this month happen, the shit will really be in the air-con ...'

You hope!

There seems to be a pandemic of political fatalism and apathy: voter turnouts continue to drop in a bunch of 'democratic' countries. (Not sure what the trend is in the UK.) Do not assume that being pissed off with a pol automatically translates into getting him/her voted out. Do your bit and get the vote out!

The polls aren't helping either becuz when people hear/read that dissatisfaction is growing many just assume that all those like-/right-minded people will do their bit, i.e., go the polling station and cast the right vote. Nope! If YOU want a pol in/out, it's on YOU to cast that ballot.

Nick Barnes @ 394:

Re: 'The "nearest good sites for massive solar farms ...'

Or maybe some moderate sized farms near hydroelectric dams - scattered everywhere on the planet that already has such.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01525-1

'Floating solar power could help fight climate change — let’s get it right

Covering 10% of the world’s hydropower reservoirs with ‘floatovoltaics’ would install as much electrical capacity as is currently available for fossil-fuel power plants. But the environmental and social impacts must be assessed.'

Charlie @436:

'But still, I see plenty of interesting and ugly aspects of hominin socialization to explore in such a deep time context. Including religion: where'd it come from ...'

First off - wishing you a complete recovery! Take your time, get your rest, etc.

So - are you going to post a blog on socialization-religion or can you already guess what the opinions are likely to be? Maybe we can have a contest on the weirdest pairings of socio-econ & religion traits and outcomes.

458:

A typical bike lane consists of a 80 cm wide strip painted between the parking lane and the traffic lane with a posted speed limit of 60-70 km/hr. You have cars whizzing by you on one side and some idiot who can open his door in your path in the other.

Portland has recently started putting bike lanes between the sidewalk and the car parking lane. Much safer, as there is little exposure to traffic on the street. And passenger doors are less likely to open than driver doors.

459:

David L @ 445:

You really just need a long enough tube. You slide the open tube all the way down into the tank and cap it with your thumb. The tube remains filled with gasoline until you uncap it. When you withdraw the tube you pull the capped end down far enough that the fuel level in the tube is below the level of the tank. When you take your thumb off, fuel flows because of air pressure, gravity or Bernoulli's principle ... I dunno, but NO SUCKING IS INVOLVED (so no mouthful of gasoline).

AKA "the Georgia credit card".

460:

Just down the road recently a bike rider died after hitting a door being opened. The town then passed an ordinance making such actions by people in cars illegal. Of course that only applied to the town.

461:

Also know of one corp (MSFT) that had (maybe still has) some buses so that their employees can commute from different parts around the Seattle area.

Here in Hillsboro, Oregon, Intel has private buses that ferry workers between their many plants and our regional light rail stations for commuters.

462:

Bonus points for doing this with leaded gas or diesel!

I suspect that even "regular" gas in the US back in the 60s had some lead added.

Does this mean I have enough points to win?

463:

Storage batteries near the grid nexus of an old coal plant. Sounds like a wizard idea, wot?

Well, Oregon's largest public futility just brought 40MW of battery onto the grid, near our old coal power site, adjacent to wind and solar, and bills it as the 'nation's largest'.

Yawn.

The Portland Metro (excluding Clark County WA just across the Columbia River since, well, Washington has their own nuclear power plant) uses 22,648,283 megawatts of electricity daily, according the per-county stats at http://findenergy.com/or/ - that means this 30 megawatt battery complex can keep the area's lights on for, how long after dark? 30 divided by 22,648,283 = not very long at all. For a few seconds of load, maybe.

But didn't I just mention the mighty Columbia River and its extensive hydropower system? Well, our power hungry neighbor to the south is running dry... and they have 55 votes in Congress, including the Speaker of the House. We have nine, and Washington has 12. Oops, there goes our remaining power...

God bless the child who can stand up and say, I Got My Own.

464:

Just down the road recently a bike rider died after hitting a door being opened. The town then passed an ordinance making such actions by people in cars illegal.

Makes for an interesting enforcement issue, doesn't it?

465:

Typo alert: Typed 40MW in the second graf, should be 30MW. Apologies.

466:

Hmmm, transcranial magnetic stimulation. How much of a magnetic field does a smartphone generate?

More interesting: how much could an app cause it to generate?

467:

As I said, right out of school, with the longest program they've ever worked on... let's see, for me in school that would have been the pseudo-compiler in the compiler design course. Most of the class was running 1800-2000 punch cards of Pascal. (Mine, since I'd already been programming for a living for over five years, was about 1200).

468:

But didn't I just mention the mighty Columbia River and its extensive hydropower system? Well, our power hungry neighbor to the south is running dry... and they have 55 votes in Congress, including the Speaker of the House. We have nine, and Washington has 12. Oops, there goes our remaining power...

Speaking as one of your southern neighbors, the general problem is that Washington+Oregon's population is 12.1 million, about two-thirds of which are in Washington.

California has 39.6 million people, and there are 10 million people in LA County alone.

I've spent a little time in Oregon, and I don't think there's room for Oregon's population to triple. Ditto Washington.

So the question is, as California becomes less inhabitable, what's it worth for others to keep a mass migration of Californians from heading wherever?

Unfortunately, I'm not joking. I'm unlikely to migrate, but people are already trickling out, due to high costs. Toss in a disaster or two, and it's not going to be a trickle.

469:

"The idea was they would cut off the water heater in the afternoon when there was peak demand for A/C."

Speaking of which, do tankless (aka "on demand") water heaters have any advantages or disadvantages over the traditional tanked variety as far as grid-scale energy/power considerations go? I'm currently something of a fan of tankless, but seeing numbers would be nice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tankless_water_heating

470:

This is a within-household look, but I think you can scale appropriately.

https://www.consumerreports.org/water-heaters/tankless-water-heaters-vs-storage-tank-water-heaters-a5291982593/

The big problem with tankless is that the current pull is at time of use, and that might actually matter, because most people use most of the water (showers, dishwashing, laundry) at night.

471:

Just down the road recently a bike rider died after hitting a door being opened. The town then passed an ordinance making such actions by people in cars illegal.

Never mind enforcement, what action exactly did the town make illegal? Opening driver side doors? Opening without looking?

472:

I've spent a little time in Oregon, and I don't think there's room for Oregon's population to triple.

Not true at all. But the hangup to doing this would be changing zoning laws. To add another 8 million people would require a lot - and I mean a lot - of high-rise apartments / condos. These are currently prohibited by zoning laws in most urban areas.

473:

"The big problem with tankless is that the current pull is at time of use, and that might actually matter, because most people use most of the water (showers, dishwashing, laundry) at night."

Good point. So perhaps another reason to have a somewhat modest battery in the house circuit. Heavy pull on the battery from ~ 1700 to 2200, charge it up from whatever external source the rest of the time.

474:

Krugman has a piece making major use of OGH's perspective on large off-planet economies/populations.

Can't give a direct link because it's in the NYT, but google

"Elon Musk, Mars and the Modern Economy"

475:

OGH just got mentioned by Paul Krugman in a New York Times editorial: Elon Musk, Mars and the Modern Economy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/opinion/musk-mars-twitter.html

As usual, it's behind a paywall, but if you hit refresh and then kill the refresh partway through, you can access it.

476:

I think you’re missing both a unit (as in should be 22,648,643MWhr) and the point. A large battery pack of this sort is not there to run the entire world for hours - it’s there to near instantaneously balance the system and stop other problems.

477:

As far as I can tell from a very poorly presented website, that 22gazillowatthr figure is an annual amount. From context in the opb site it looks like a 30MWhr battery and they claim it can run Tigard (I think I’ve been through it?) for 4hrs. That’s quite a lot of UPS capacity; wouldn’t mind one myself.

478:

Well that's basically exchanging one sort of "battery" for another. Not sure which works out to be most efficient for systems that convert electrical energy directly to heat. There's inevitably some heat loss from the storage tank unless the insulation is perfect, although there must surely be some compromises in making an electric element that can transfer enough energy to heat the water on demand. Not sure about losses in the heat exchanger stage of the storage tank, it doesn't seem obvious that there are any but I'm no expert.

However heat pump systems are considerably more efficient, and these are not really practical in a tankless version. You'd end up freezing the area where the quite large, as in room-sized, heat pump was located. While ground-coupled heat pump systems no doubt exist somewhere or at some scale, they are exotic while there are readily available COTS systems that work quite well and these are storage tank systems with some sort of forced ventilation for the heat pump.

479:

Charlie @453 writes:

(The precise shape of the belief systems in question is possibly less important than the whole "worship people who look like this, they are your gods" hackery.)

Heteromeles @writes: It might not be cladogenesis, but instead schismogenesis: those who have been caught up in others' experiments may regard the freedom to experiment on oneself alone as essential,

Synthesis of these ideas generates the following: genetically programmed cultivars could deactivate their own subservient instincts through the development of cellular code algorithms, to modify unwanted neural patterns. The same magnetic fields projected into brain tissue for manipulation of religious fervor, over centuries could be customized to generate whatever instincts the individual deemed appropriate. Once these techniques spread to the larger population, not limited to only the artificial servant castes seeking to escape inner restraints, then internal modulation practice would likely replace humankind's proclivity for self aggrandizement through interference with the environment. A whole new era of ho-hum yawn not much happening might dawn throughout the known universe, since people could much more easily train themselves to be satisfied with whatever was readily available, rather than boldly seeking out new worlds. A golden age!

480:

whitroth said: Would you stop snarking as an automatic response, and actually consider before posting?

It's an automatic response because I've explained how this stuff works, carefully and politely to exactly the same people for literal years. I don't need to consider before posting anymore. I know what counterfactual garbage they'll spout. The response is now slotted in. I'm totally over polite with them. Paranoid fantasies about evil foreigners itching to violate their powerboard, plus counterfactual fairy stories about putting out oil fires with a bucket of water just shit me to tears. It was OK the first 10 times. I thought that simply presenting the facts would change their minds, despite knowing the fact that facts don't change people's minds.

Now I just talk to them like idiots. Same as I would to flat earthers, or republican gun nuts.

481:

RE: tank vs. tankless heater. I've got to admit, after reading that consumer reports article, I'm rethinking the notion of staying tankless when I go for electric water heating. With a heat pump.

The thing that caught my attention was the notion of having 50 gallons of water sitting at home. Where I live in South Droughtistan, having some extra water for when the power cuts out appeals a bit.

More to think about.

482:

Nice hat tip to Charlie in that article, being compared favorably to Elon Musk.

Guess Krugman wants more interplanetary economics. That'd be an interesting order to fill...

483:

I am strictly an amateur coder, but I am all about the error handling and input verification! (Boring but necessary!)

484:

Similarly, a friend parks his Nissan Leaf at the train station and charges it there. Free electricity - what could be better than that?

485:

Hetero said: I don't think you ever bid zero. The energy might be flowing for free, but you still have to cover payroll...

There's a whole lot of game theory here that should be right up your ecological alley.

Yes, for some players the optimum strategy is to bid zero. For some it's to bid negative. For some it's to bid high, and then claim that they've had an unplanned outage that means they can't meet their bid and pay the fine for not providing the promised electricity. Lots of weird ways to game the system. Just like for some animals having millions of offspring is optimal, or just a couple, or eating your kids is optimal, or eating your new partner's kids, or raising your sister's kids, or letting yourself be eaten by your new partner.

486:

The neuro-hack for that is "if you meet Buddha on the road, kill him." Or somesuch. Essentially, you program yourself to believe that your God would be better off in heaven...

487:

Getting back to the question of space operatic religions, I'll make a single, endlessly mutating pitch: it's all about keeping kosher and following the Law.

We can guess that most planets won't provide human food. Ignoring the chirality of biological molecules, we need a fairly random assortment of vitamins and minerals. They're random, because over evolution, our ancestors did better by consuming the vitamins than they did by synthesizing them (if they're common in the environment but take energy to synthesize, this makes sense. Getting them from the environment leaves more resources for other things).

So you go to a new biosphere and the Great Work of figuring out how humans are going to live on the world this time ensues. It will involve everything from fiddling with melanization and circadian rhythms to endlessly re-engineering gut bacteria (which need their own vitamins, like K) and other parts of our microbiome to deal with whatever insults the planet throws. It will also involve endlessly evolving rules about how to live with the gravity, the weather, the wildlife, the plants, the soils... This is the stuff of Leviticus, really. It's not about orthodoxy (correct belief), it's about orthopraxy (correct practice).

This naturally leads to a hierarchy. At the top are the well-to-do, who can afford all the protections, dietary requirements, and so forth. At the bottom are the experimental subjects who have to make do with whatever their experimental regimen allows. Allegedly the goal of all this is to bless these meek experimental people, for they're the ones who shall (eventually?) inherit the new world. However, if you're a control freak, limiting access to the necessities of orthopraxy--nutritious food, good environmental filters, high quality medicine--effectively provides a way to control the means of production. The truly righteous in this system are the rich and unmodified. And ironically (but essentially) they need this access, because unlike the poor, they are not engineered for the planet. This also provides an interesting control on interstellar travel. The traveler is not engineered for the new planet, so they'd better be rich enough to afford all the accoutrements of orthopraxy, or they're in trouble.

Then there's the end game. Suppose, in spite of it all, the meek become indigenes, able to roll their own or live without the technical supports of vitamins, biome additions, and so forth. So they rebel, establish their own religion, and go off and settle another planet. At that point, it's going to be difficult to keep themselves from replicating the abusive system they escaped from. After all, it's a new world, it's going to take a long time to figure out how to adapt humans and human civilization to it, and keeping critical medicines available for those who are doing critical work, while experimenting on others, is an orthodox practice for adapting humans to another world.

And so it goes. We might call this the Keep Kosher or Die model.

488:

I was actually thinking of game theory. I was also thinking of PG&E, which invested in dividends rather than infrastructure, had billions in losses when their lines sparked wildfires, and had to play a game with the California government about what would also go down with them if they were held liable and went bankrupt.

Were I engineering a power market where they were bidding on spot markets, I'd engineer not just a ceiling but a floor, to force the sellers to cover costs legitimately rather than externalizing them while playing "beggar thy competitor" games. While there's no perfect system, doing something akin a Japanese Reverse Auction in a regulated market where everybody knew everybody's cost of production and capacity for production might work. Those data would be supplied as part of entering the market. A modified Japanese Reverse Auction could run thusly:

--bids decrease incrementally, starting high and going low.

--Suppliers say how much they can supply at a given price each round.

--As the prices decrease, those who can't produce drop out of the bidding.

--Once everyone has dropped out because the price is too low, the buyer buys contracts for power from lowest bid to highest bid in order, to meet needs. While it's tempting to stay high, that only works if there's high demand. This is a risky strategy, because if there is no demand, the contract is not executed and you don't sell any of your power.

Bids below certified price of production would be discarded. Evidence of collusion (bid-fixing) would result in penalties reducing payments after power is supplied.

I'm not an expert on auctioneering, so I have no idea whether this would work in practice. The goal is to set up a system where the incentives to keep the market working and rules-driven outweigh the advantages of cheating and vying for a monopoly. Making that work will always be a struggle.

489:

Misread the name. Should be Serra, see Uncle Stinky @ 363.

Alternative explanation: Eric Senna is half a laxative.

490:

Yeah... the difficulty there is maintaining a good seal between your thumb and the end of the tube while moving the end of the tube down into the bucket, and not accidentally tilt your thumb an unnoticeable fraction and let the air in. And even if you do succeed, it's still common for some of the air bubble between your thumb and the liquid in the tube to not come out with the flow, but float back up to the highest point of the tube and stick there making it flow really slowly. So I end up either trying it about three times and then going "fuck it, suck it", or else just cutting the cackle and going "fuck it, suck it" right from the start.

491:

Never mind enforcement, what action exactly did the town make illegal? Opening driver side doors? Opening without looking?

More the latter. First article gives a lot of stats about such things in the area and country. Second one talks about the ordinance as passed. Basically don't open a car door on the side of traffic without checking to make sure it will not be a hazard.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/orange-county/article258166743.html

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/orange-county/article261117402.html

The N&O is pay walled but I think gives you 4 or so articles a month for free.

BTW, The town of Chapel Hill is basically a University town. Something like 30K students at UNC-CH. Plus a medical center. So lots of bike riders about. And many of the street layouts will seem familiar to those in older European cities. Small, winding, crowded.

492:

In the UK in the 60s it was all you could get. Unleaded didn't start coming in until the end of the 80s, and leaded remained common for a good many years after that.

So I've done it with unleaded, leaded, diesel, and an entire tank of petrol/diesel mix (someone used the wrong pump by mistake, then their car stopped and they got me to sort it out. So I transferred the whole lot to my own car, which burnt it quite happily).

Also priming diesel systems when there isn't a (functioning) priming pump provided, which isn't starting a siphon, and goes suck spit suck spit suck spit etc. for a pint or two.

Diesel isn't too bad - it's just oily, but then so is pizza; it doesn't really taste of anything. It's petrol that's the nasty one because of the burp thing. But it's still a lot less unpleasant to have in my mouth than any of the 37.5% ethanol mixtures that people claim to enjoy the taste of.

493:

I'm rethinking the notion of staying tankless when I go for electric water heating. With a heat pump.

Heat pump tanked water heaters reduce the install power draw and allow you to try and push most of it into off hours. Especially if you get a well insulated tank.[1]

Of course at this time they cost 2 to 3 times the price of a non heat pump tanked systems. In the US when I last looked a year or so ago.

Plus in the summer it pulls heat out of the air in the house.[2]

[1] My gas fired 50 gallon best choice at Home Depot 15 years ago is still going strong. And by buying the best unit they had at the time the insulation is good enough that it seem to not need to fire overnight. First person taking a shower seems to get water that has sat overnight based on temp. I've never put a cam in front of the flame viewing port to try and track when it fires.

[2] Heat pump water heaters still have heating elements. They just get used less often.

494:

I'm not an expert on auctioneering, so I have no idea whether this would work in practice. The goal is to set up a system where the incentives to keep the market working and rules-driven outweigh the advantages of cheating and vying for a monopoly. Making that work will always be a struggle.

Sounds like a draw to those folks who design high speed stock and currency trading systems. They work hard at automating things so they can quickly (like in a few miliseconds) notice a situation and execute a trade that will net them $.001 x 10,000,000. You're setup would draw them like flies to crap.

495:

You really just need a long enough tube.

When you need it now you work with what you have. These are not planned events. Or were not in my cases.

496:

So perhaps another reason to have a somewhat modest battery in the house circuit. Heavy pull on the battery from ~ 1700 to 2200, charge it up from whatever external source the rest of the time.

Every tankless electrical water heater I've seen (US numbers) has a 230-240v 30amp circuit requirement. After all it has to heat the water flowing rapidly in a very short piping system from around 50F/10C to 120F/50F or so. At least to allow a first world hot shower.

And perversely you get a net colder shower if you set the temp of the water coming out of a tankless heater too high. (Exercise for the reader here.)

497:

230-240v 30amp circuit requirement.

Wrong. I was thinking of "at the sink" type units. Whole house units have a current draw of well over 100 amps. 150 amps give or take in many cases.

498:

"Well that's basically exchanging one sort of "battery" for another. Not sure which works out to be most efficient for systems that convert electrical energy directly to heat. There's inevitably some heat loss from the storage tank unless the insulation is perfect, although there must surely be some compromises in making an electric element that can transfer enough energy to heat the water on demand. Not sure about losses in the heat exchanger stage of the storage tank, it doesn't seem obvious that there are any but I'm no expert."

For electrical heaters - so you have the element actually immersed in the water, totally surrounded on all sides - whether tanky or tankless, the efficiency going from electricity to hot water is as near 100% as makes no difference. You lose a wee bit of heat conducted out down the electrical connections but it's never enough to care about, since it would melt things all over the place if it was. So no difference on that count.

Regarding "electrical battery" vs "thermal battery", which works better depends on your usage. The charge/discharge efficiency of the thermal battery is much better than any electrical one, being again nigh 100%, but the self-discharge rate is much higher. The "standard" level of insulation isn't really enough, but of course you can easily put on as much more as you want (remembering also to insulate the pipes connecting to the tank, otherwise a fair bit will conduct out down them), and it ought to be possible to insulate it well enough that you can cook the tank up one day, then not use any hot water, and still find it hot enough not to need reheating to have a bath with a couple of days later. Bigger tanks work better, both because of the square-cube thing and because of the lesser effect of dilution by incoming cold water when you take some of the hot water out.

If you have more than one person in the house and everyone is having a bath every day and using hot water for other washing stuff as well, then the rate of use is enough to make the self-discharge insignificant. You can just leave the main switch on all the time and leave it to the thermostat to switch the heater on and off as required.

For me living on my own and with a hot water installation that is inadequate for a long list of reasons, that doesn't work, although it might come close to working if I was terribly extravagant with hot water: it more or less does work when I am ill and basically living in the bath for a few days, topping it up with hot water all the time. When I'm not ill it works far better to only put the heater on a couple of hours before I want to have a bath, and the rest of the time leave it off and just do everything with cold water.

On-demand heaters are HORRIBLE as far as the supply is concerned because you need a ridiculous power output to get a decent flow rate, so while they are on they suck enough juice to make everything else put together look like nothing. For this reason an on-demand heater in the UK is almost certainly a gas burner, not electric.

The exception is dedicated on-demand heaters feeding a shower head, because the flow rate you need for a shower head is much lower than you want from a tap, so it just about works. The heater for these is somewhere around 10kW. You need to install a dedicated spur from the switchboard using 4mm2 or preferably 6mm2 cable, and the cable still gets warm when you're using it. Not infrequently you have to replace the switchboard and all the wiring back to the meter, because the original installation isn't up to it. Any minor weakness will become conspicuous by its smell.

If you wanted one to feed a tap you'd need about 20kW, which is typical-ish for a gas-burning one and they're still annoyingly slow. So you'd have four times as much of a problem coping with the load. Things are starting to get pretty industrial.

Given the way US wiring standards and practices tend to make my hair stand on end every time anyone describes them, I think it would be an even worse idea there.

499:

Kardashev @ 474: & AlanD2 @ 475:

Is it even possible with current technological capabilities to build a self-sustaining Mars colony?

If not, what do we lack that we would need to develop to make one possible?

IF we do already have the technology, how many colonists would such a colony need to become self sustaining.

One trope I remember from the Sci-Fi of my youth is that many colonists would NOT be volunteers; that authoritarian governments would use them as dumping grounds for "undesirables".

When I was young, reading Heinlein's juveniles, I had the idea that someday I might be a moon colonist. And while I think any authoritarian government would certainly consider me undesirable, I'm too old. They wouldn't take me even if I was to volunteer, because I'm past the ability to procreate and have nothing to contribute to the colony's growth

... although I guess they could send me there to die, but I just don't see the ROI.

500:

David L @ 491:

If the Nuisance & Disturber's paywall proves to be impenetrable, I found the story on a local TV station.

Chapel Hill passes ordinance aimed to protect cyclists

Turns out Raleigh has had such an ordinance since 2013.

501:

»One trope I remember from the Sci-Fi of my youth is that many colonists would NOT be volunteers; that authoritarian governments would use them as dumping grounds for "undesirables".«

In other words, New-Australia.

502:

David L @ 495:

You really just need a long enough tube.

When you need it now you work with what you have. These are not planned events. Or were not in my cases.

Apparently planned enough that you had a siphon tube when you needed it?

Remember the Boy Scouts Motto: Be Prepared
It's just as easy to keep a long tube handy as it is to keep a short tube.

😁

503:

The "standard" level of insulation isn't really enough, but of course you can easily put on as much more as you want

That's harder than it sounds. Cheap insulation is bulky and often hot water heaters are shoved in cupboards or up against walls. Mine has a "blanket" of rockwool around it, but only ~50mm because even that is quite compressed against two walls. There's a couple of garbage bags full of excess in the corner but I doubt that does much.

The good news is that the water inside is ~60 degrees, the room is about 15-20, and the outside of the tank is about 35. So the extra insulation helps. Just not as much as I'd like. And if I turn the power off to it I only get 2-3 days before the water is too tepid to shower comfortably. Especially in winter. In summer I get 3-4 days because even a cold shower is bearable. Having a dishwasher makes that much more practical, because washing dishes in 30 degree water is annoying.

For a while someone in Oz was selling a similar product that I expect worked better, but I suspect there wasn't much market and I missed out.

504:

Charlie @ 453
Is that a long child of the studies of Dr M Persinger? - yes? ( no? )

Alan D2
We've been doing that for several years - HERE is one I cross 6 times a week - as it was whilst under construction - note that there is "no parking" on this one. Where the roads are wider, the cycle lane will be/are "On pavement" rather than "on road" ...

Kardashev/H
I think the optimum solution is to have a large hot water tank, insulate it well, put it in an enclosed space ( Like my "airing cupboard"! ) & to set the temperature to "hot enough" without being anywhere near boiling. Mine is set to 59°C - mainly because I can't set it down to 55°C. This evens out the load over longer periods, without excessive consumption, as would occur if you went for "near-boiling" levels - that's what 3kW electric kettles are for (!)
... Note: A Heat Pump would change the equation(s) - but, as I've mentioned before, they have been gamed by the usual crooks, so that they are (currently) not worth it for me { Right here, right now }

505:

Oh yes - an addition: -
Lest We Forget
Whilst in the USA, the book-burnings have begun & women are being driven back to Kinder, Kirche, Küche

506:

although I guess they could send me there to die, but I just don't see the ROI.

Experiments in how to deal with old folks as the colonists age?

I suspect none of the space cadets' plans include old folks homes. But that's just my thoughts.

507:

Yes; I was thinking in terms of new installations. I have the same kind of problem with my hot water tank, and the amount of hassle involved in doing anything worthwhile about it would be indistinguishable from that involved in a new installation, since I'd basically have to take the whole bloody lot out and then rebuild it. But if you're doing a new installation anyway, then you have the freedom to do it properly from the start.

508:

It's just as easy to keep a long tube handy as it is to keep a short tube.

When you're running a one home at a time subdivision construction firm out of your garage as a part time side job, you just can't stock everything you might need.

But you might take that old hose from that broken something and use it for a siphon if an emergency. It was an infrequent thing. Only once or twice a year. There were a couple of gas stations a bit over a mile down the road. One of them was an auto parts house with lots of tractor parts. But at times a siphon got you out of a situation as darkness was happening or similar. Maybe the truck wasn't around. And carrying gas cans in mom's car was really really frowned upon.

Drives my wife nuts but I don't throw away old garden hoses until they completely fall apart. They can always be cut down and made into shorter hoses for some situation.

509:

The vitamins and minerals we use are not as random as all that, because a lot of them are constrained by basic biochemistry and chemistry, and their use would evolve for the same reason they evolved here; there often aren't a lot of suitable alternatives, so there would be a very considerable overlap, assuming an earth-like biosphere. Yes, there would be absences, toxins and allergens, so your conclusion stands.

Frankly, in the absence of panspermia, I don't see any chance of medical modification to adapt to a new biosphere - it would be more reengineering our metabolisms from scratch.

510:

Eh. You know Stockholm Syndrome appears to be false -- a socially useful myth created to deny agency to victims of violence (who were trying to survive a deadly situation, not actually bonding with their captors)?

511:

Portland has recently started putting bike lanes between the sidewalk and the car parking lane.

This only really works if there's a raised kerb between the bike lane and the car parking lane. Otherwise you get jerks parking in the cycle lane. Not just delivery drivers: actual random commuters, shoppers, and the like.

(Amsterdam and the Netherlands in general get it right: where the road is wide enough, you get: a raised pedestrian sidewalk, a road-level bidirectional cycle route with pedestrian crossings and traffic lights, then a raised kerb, then vehicle parking/driving lanes. Tram tracks generally share the driving lanes unless the road is extra-wide to accommodate separated tracks. But the pedestrians and cyclists eat up the equivalent of an extra full-width vehicle lane on either side of the street, so a two lane road is actually at least four lanes wide.

512:

This only really works if there's a raised kerb between the bike lane and the car parking lane. Otherwise you get jerks parking in the cycle lane. Not just delivery drivers: actual random commuters, shoppers, and the like.

Yeah, this is what happens here at least when there are no parking spots. The bike lines are nice, but there's usually only a painted line between the bike lane and the car lane. This means the bike line is just a narrower lane to park the cars in.

My bike commute has a stretch of these lanes (mostly dedicated bike lanes which are better), and on the maybe kilometer stretch there are usually at least 5-6 cars parked there. Not very convenient.

513:

On opening car doors and injuring passers-by ...

The Dutch have a solution which they're teaching in driver education.

When you open a car door from inside the vehicle, always open it with your opposite-side hand.

That is: if opening a door on the right, reach across for the latch with your left hand. (And vice versa: if opening a door on the left, use your right hand.)

Doing so requires you to twist your torso just enough that your peripheral vision will catch people approaching from behind.

It's a surprisingly simple habit to cultivate and it saves lives, hospital stays, and reduces the risk of damage to your shiny expensive motor car.

514:

the efficiency going from electricity to hot water is as near 100% as makes no difference

Sure, but heat pumps, which don't go direct from electricity to heat, change that a bit. Like you say, I think usage patterns dictate whether the self discharge rate is significant.

dilution by incoming cold water when you take some of the hot water out

The storage systems I'm familiar with don't mix the water in the tank. To supply hot water, cold water runs through a copper heat exchanger inside the tank. It cools the hot water in the tank, but not by dilution. The water standing in the tank can be cycled via a top-up valve and an overflow drain but generally that isn't required. Old tanks are highly sought-after by scrap metal scavengers for all the copper inside.

an on-demand heater in the UK is almost certainly a gas burner, not electric.

Same in Oz. I've never encountered an electric on-demand system in the wild, but I've encountered gas ones that were clearly quite old (pre-1970s anyway).

it would be an even worse idea there [in the USA]

Agreed, especially with the 110VAC thing. The culture shock people experience about the relative scarcity of electric kettles over there is illustrative.

515:

150 amps give or take in many cases

As per Pigeon's words, it sounds pretty industrial. But maybe in the future interconnects (and I think that's the right word, looking ahead, rather than "supply") with these sort of capacities are the new normal. Lot of copper but.

516:

Cyclists and car doors. Since the beginning of this year UK drivers are advised in the Highway Code to use the Dutch method of opening car doors. You should use the opposite hand to the open car doors. This forces the driver or passenger to turn around and, hopefully, see cyclists passing.

517:

And that is at 240VAC.

You have to take tepid water to a decently higher temp in a meter or less of piping fitted inside a medium to large suitcase sized enclosure. So it takes a bit of power to do it.

The thought I had was this is over double the current of a fast home charger for an EV in the home.

And no aiming at you... As to the 110VAC thing in the US. It is also in Canada. And it's 120VAC. And you'd be hard press to find a service drop that isn't 240VAC. It's only 120VAC to the convenience outlets for personal things. And I've looked at the pros and cons for both 120VAC and 240VAC to the end user. I can argue either side. Most off the cuff arguments I see tend to be "we have the best way".

518:

And while typing the previous comment there was a loud "bang" outside. Power flickered. For maybe 1/10 of a second or less. I guess someone had a pole transformer trip and the system reset fast enough that things kept going.

519:

Charlie
IMAGINE MY SURPISE!
Stockhlom Syndrome is simply, doing the best you can, under desperate circumstances, to STAY ALIVE ...
NOT difficult to understand ... unless you are an arsehole "psychologist" who wants to denigrate a very vulnerable female survivor, how nice.

Meanwhile, is that electric-field experimentation on religious subjects a child of the late Dr Persinger's early experiments? If so, more details, please?
A separate post on this one (?) because we need, desperately to deal with this, what with militant islam & the religious Nazification of the US by the white wing.

520:

450 - That sounds a lot like Glasgow "cycle lanes", with the side note that one of the roads with a cycle lane is also used by the experimental electric bus fleet (~10 out of 1000 buses). You are actually more likely to see an electric bus than a pedal cycle (based on 12 months of 3 days a week return journeys).

456 - "write only programming" does rather spring to mind when you mention "C".

457 - I try, to the extent of just saying "Vote!" rather than "Vote Monster Raving Idiot." (not a real party that I know of)

458 - Passengers are also less likely than drivers to look before opening doors and/or alighting.

467 - I'd like to know how much of that "extra length" was more statements other than declarations and how much was declarations and/or longer constant and/or variable names.

480 - Speaking of which, I happened to see a BBC news article today from North India, about how, despite them having solar power, they also have power brownouts and blackouts.

521:

Eh. You know Stockholm Syndrome appears to be false -- a socially useful myth created to deny agency to victims of violence (who were trying to survive a deadly situation, not actually bonding with their captors)?

So call it trauma bonding. Or, for that matter, call it horsebreaking done on humans. The basic point is that you don't need a fancy technology when the methods for accomplishing that goal pre-date civilization.

The other point is that you just got a nice nod for your 2010 essay insufficient data. It might be worth rereading that in the context of how to set up a colony on an alien world.

How many people do you need in your colony ship to set up a technological base? Hundred million? Is it feasible to ship that many humans at once, and if so, what's so wrong with the ship that they want to leave it? And if you dump a hundred million people on an unknown world, what's the mortality rate going to be? And how do you keep this from turning into a rerun of Douglas Adams' method for populating the Earth?

Assuming mass migration is not feasible, the basic colonization drama is a massive bootstrapping and adaptation saga spanning many generations, starting with research stations and ending up with, I dunno, billionaires. At first they will be running short on a tech base, so inducing religious compliance with trans-cranial magnetic stimulation is silly. Inducing compliance with short rations, beatings, and occasional religious festivals to let off steam? Some people might call that a religion.

Whether you actually want to go there in the 2020s for entertainment purposes....?

522:

On tankless water heaters, here's a sample, with specs, of ones sold in the US by Lowe's (a big-box home improvement chain).

https://www.lowes.com/pl/Tankless-electric-water-heaters-Water-heaters-Plumbing/4294859097

523:

Car fires often trap drivers or passengers inside the burning vehicle

Actually, most car fires don't do that.

Rather than "often", "very occasionally" or "rarely" would be more appropriate descriptors of frequency.

524:

Sounds like a draw to those folks who design high speed stock and currency trading systems. They work hard at automating things so they can quickly (like in a few miliseconds) notice a situation and execute a trade that will net them $.001 x 10,000,000. You're setup would draw them like flies to crap.

Not really.

What Gasdive and I are talking about is not an open market. It's a closed market, with one buyer and a limited number of suppliers, which is why power sales are run as a reverse auction. To enter the market, you have to have a supply of power to sell, you have to be technologically capable of selling it (voltage matching, lines running from your power source to the buyer, and so forth), and then you have to be trustworthy. That last is where the fun and games happen.

As Gasdive pointed out, if you run a reverse auction simplistically, someone who wants to monopolize the market sells at zero to drive their competitors out of business. This presents all sorts of problems, not the least of which (the PG&E example) is billion-dollar fires when the zero-shipper invests in market dominance rather than maintaining critical infrastructure. Therefore, if you're running a market to supply the public power grid, you want to incentivize the sellers to bid realistically in ways that cover their expenses, while not driving the price of power up so high that the consumers downstream scream, and also not bankrupting the reinsurance market by offloading your problems onto insurance companies, which would open your market to a different kind of problem. Not simple.

Anyway, there's no place in here for high speed trading, because market entry takes years, not milliseconds (build a facility, do the paperwork and jump through the regulatory hoops to convince the market managers that you're not usually creepy). Where high speed trading messes things up is on the back end, with ownership of publicly traded power suppliers and the like.

AFAIK there's a whole economic field of market design. It's not something I know anything about, so I assume that what I just wrote is wrong in some fundamental but non-obvious ways (too bad Krugman's not here to comment). The need to supply affordable solar and wind power in ways that don't lead to billion-dollar wildfires from transmission failures is already here and will only get worse, so something will be done. Whether the creeps will play nice? That's the interesting question.

525:

I don't think you ever bid zero. The energy might be flowing for free, but you still have to cover payroll, land taxes, equipment upkeep, whatever part of your transmission network you're responsible for, and the investors' expected profit.

As he described the auction, the only way you'd get paid zero is if people who bid zero offered enough electricity to satisfy the demand. Otherwise, everyone who bid would received what the highest bid accepted bid.

Worked example: StrossCorp needs 1 MW to keep the company offices running. Gasdive, who has wisely invested in solar panels, bids 0/kW for 100 kW. Pigeon Inc, who has invested in biogas, bids 20/kW for 300 kW. Tingey & Boss, who have an SMR in the attic of their London flat, bid 30/kW for 500 kW. HeteroPower, who has invested in wind, bids 50/kW for 200 kW. PriorPower, dependent on Tar Sands oil, bids 100/kW for 1 MW.

To get 1 MW StrossCorp will need to accept all bids except PriorPower, so all accepted suppliers will be paid 50/kW no matter what their bid was. Which means canny Gasdive makes 5000 despite bidding 0/kW.

If everyone bids below cost to guarantee themselves a share in the pie then everyone gets screwed. (Except StrossCorp!)

There must be a name for this type of auction. And ways of gaming it. And ways of countering the gaming.

526:

"write only programming" does rather spring to mind when you mention "C".

Nope. That's APL. C is a breeze of readability compared to APL.

Some of us got to learn it early in our computing experience. We called it write once, read never code.

527:

Even for those of us who can't really ride a bike, lightweight electrically assisted quadricycles ought to be able to replace a goodly chunk of local car journeys, i.e. most of them, by replacing a 1000-2000kg vehicle with a 50-100kg vehicle. The energy savings of which should be bleeding obvious.

I would be happy to do that, except that having to share the road with SUVs is already dodgy enough in my small car. I would be very hesitant to get rid of the protection the car gives me.

Part of the solution, I think, needs to tackle huge personal vehicles. (Possibly more a problem here than in Scotland?) When I drove to Hamilton on Monday for the CAP Congress I was in a minority — most of the commuters were driving SUVs or minivans, single-occupancy, and crawling in traffic. And enough of them were on their cell phones that I was nervous even in my own (smaller) metal cage…

528:

do tankless (aka "on demand") water heaters have any advantages or disadvantages over the traditional tanked variety as far as grid-scale energy/power considerations go?

My neighbours put in a tankless heater. It ended up increasing their energy bill.

Three young adult boys taking daily showers. A tank empties and gets people mad at you, so acted to keep showers shortish. The tankless heater never runs out, so showers became much longer without any repercussion (except mom complaining, who they could tune out).

529:

When I began reading Krugman's essay, my first thought was "Who said anything about self-sufficiency?" AFAIK, Elon Musk never claimed his Mars colony is supposed to be self-sufficient.

Then I saw that Krugman assumes it would have to be self-sufficient: Now, given access to world markets, even small countries can have full access to the benefits of modern technology; life in Luxembourg is pretty good. But unless we actually invent the Epstein Drive or something, the realities of transportation costs mean that Musk’s hypothetical Mars colony would have to be largely self-sufficient, cut off from the rest of the solar system economy.

Any transportation system cheap enough to deliver one million people to Mars over the course of 10-30 years, will also be cheap enough to support interplanetary trade. Note that vast majority of tradable goods will not need a life-support system, food, radiation protection or even pressurized compartments, which makes their transport enormously cheaper than transport of people.

One thing we definitely cannot do with chemical fuels is "just in time" supply chains. Anything sent to (or from) Mars will arrive some 8-24 months later, depending on where the planets are at launch. But this is nothing new -- economies had worked with similar transportation times for most of history. So I am not at all convinced that Mars colony would be cut off from Earth trade.

530:

»Speaking of which, do tankless (aka "on demand") water heaters have any advantages or disadvantages over the traditional tanked variety as far as grid-scale energy/power considerations go?«

Depends on how much hot water you use.

For a regular household, a tank-based system is almost by guranteed best and cheapest, for a large number of reasons.

Tank-less systems ("Run-through-heater") almost only makes sense where you have infrequent need for hot water, or water hotter than normal.

For instance, if you only need hot water once a week, say to wash a floor in a storage building, the tank would stand around wasting energy the rest of the week.

Similarly, if you need near-boiling water to clean (typically food-processing-)machinery, the tank and piping will be a very expensive solution, compared to a run-through-heater installed precisely where you need the water. (However, if "normal" hot water is available, it makes sense to feed the run-through-heater with that.)

531:

Actually, most car fires don't do that

I don't think I said they do. "Often" doesn't mean "most of the time" so far as I know.

I fail to see any reason to suppose that electric vehicles would be any harder to exit than liquid fuel powered ones. In the most recent incident on Vancouver Island as I recall the driver pranged a lamp post and did a lot of damage to the vehicle.

Anyway, if we are to discuss this subject rationally we need actual statistical information. What actual evidence is there that one kind or the other vehicle has fires most often or the highest injury and death rate? Anecdotes aren't evidence.

532:

»Note that vast majority of tradable goods will not need a life-support system, food, radiation protection or even pressurized compartments, which makes their transport enormously cheaper than transport of people.«

First, "tradable goods" is not the relevant category, "Goods needed on Mars" is.

Second very little cargo can be transported unprotected for that long, and still be usable at arrival.

Anything of organic origin is right out.

Most polymers (=plastics) too.

Complicated machinery, lathes, mills will not react well to extremely low temperatures and evaporation of all lubricants.

Heck, even ingots of many of the necessary metals would become too radioactive to handle, or contaminated by transmutation if transported unprotected.

(This is why so relatively few samples of materials exposed to space are being returned to Earth: They're generally too hot to handle.)

So I think we can safely assume that almost all of the cargo will be in pressurized, somewhat shielded and probably also heated compartments.

The heating is a non-issue: There is no way to get humans to Mars without taking a nuclear reactor along for heat and comfort.

533:

We've been doing that for several years - HERE is one I cross 6 times a week - as it was whilst under construction...

I must be missing something. From what I can see, the bike lane you show is adjacent to the traffic lane, with nothing separating them.

Here's an example of a parking-protected bike lane in Portland, Oregon.

534:

This only really works if there's a raised kerb between the bike lane and the car parking lane.

Parking while blocking a parking-protected bike lane is certainly possible, I haven't noticed this as a problem when I bike here in Portland, Oregon. See my example in #533 for one of our parking-protected bike lanes.

535:

*There must be a name for this type of auction. And ways of gaming it. And ways of countering the gaming.

What you're describing is a type of reverse auction.

I'm not sure why the buyer would reward everyone with the highest bid, because that would incentivize collusion to drive the price up.

Worked example: StrossCorp needs 1 MW to keep the company offices running. Gasdive, who has wisely invested in solar panels, bids 0/kW for 100 kW. Pigeon Inc, who has invested in biogas, bids 20/kW for 300 kW. Tingey & Boss, who have an SMR in the attic of their London flat, bid 30/kW for 500 kW. HeteroPower, who has invested in wind, bids 50/kW for 200 kW. PriorPower, dependent on Tar Sands oil, bids 100/kW for 1 MW.

If you did something like the modified Japanese Reverse Auction I described, it would go something like this:

StrossCorp wants 1 MW

100/kW: everybody bids, 2.1 MWh available

...

50/kWh: Prior drops out, 1.1 MWh available

40/kWh: Hetero drops out, 0.9 MWh available

30/kWh: T&B, Pigeon, and Gasdive still on, 0.9 MWh available

20/kWh: T&B drops out, 0.4 MWh available

10/KWh: Pigeon drops out, 0.1 MWh available

0/KWh: Gasdive still on for 0.1 MWh

So StrossCorp divvies up the contracts:

300 kWh from Pigeon (6000)

500 kWh from T&B (15,000)

100 kWh from Heter (5,000)

AND Gasdive gets to donate his 100 kWh for free, thereby kindly saving StrossCorp the 5,000 of buying it from Heter.

The advantages here are that:

--You can donate power, if you've got surplus capacity and you need to keep your system running regardless. Otherwise, accepting donated power penalizes beggar thy neighbor strategies, because you lose money that way.

--You don't know how much you will be supplying until the auction's over, but unless the lowest bidder can supply the entire contract, you may get a piece of the action, at the lowest cost you can afford.

--It allows a diverse supply. For instance, if it's a windy night, Gasdive has nothing to sell but Heter does, so the costs go up but the power keeps flowing. Likewise, there's still the Prior's peaker plant available, if it a calm, dark night and nothing else is available.

I don't think this is perfect, but it's doable and can be automated (bidders simply put in the amount they can sell and the minimum price they're willing to sell it for).

536:

(This is why so relatively few samples of materials exposed to space are being returned to Earth: They're generally too hot to handle.)

Cobblers? Just how long is it supposed to take for this supposed too radioactive to handle? LDEF, lumps of Skylab, several Dragon capsules and a multitude of Soyuz capsules would firmly disagree with you. The reason very little material is brough back is because neither current vehicle capable of returning material has the capacity. In the shuttle era however a number of items that had spent a long time exposed to space were returned for examination. Induced radioactivity was never a problem.

537:

Passengers are also less likely than drivers to look before opening doors and/or alighting.

This may be true, but the majority of auto trips here in the U.S. don't have passengers, so bicyclists are still much less likely to run into passenger doors than driver doors.

538:

I would be happy to do that, except that having to share the road with SUVs

Yes, agreed.

I can speculate about a transition and how to achieve it, but it'd be politically unacceptable to the existing SUV drivers and the vehicle manufacturers' lobby.

(Tax non-commercial goods vehicles by weight. Allocate 100kg of untaxed mass per passenger, including the driver: so a 5 seater car gets 500kg tax free, and an 80 seater bus would be 8000kg tax free. Then tax some coefficient -- maybe the square -- of the vehicle weight over that threshold. So a Tesla Model S gets taxed on 2130kg - 500kg (or 700kg for the 7 seater), or call it 1430kg. Whereas an old Morris Mini -- 4 seater, 686kg -- gets taxed on just 286kg. The goal is to drive big, heavy cars into extinction due to cost-ineffectiveness: I want to see the annual tax on something like a Model S, in other words a honking big-ass saloon -- rise to maybe 25% of its initial purchase price every year, and for an SUV it should be something like 50%.)

Greg will now scream at me. Okay, have a grandfather clause for vehicles over 30 years old, grandpa.

539:

“Heck, even ingots of many of the necessary metals would become too radioactive to handle, or contaminated by transmutation if transported unprotected.” Really? Bulk transmutation seems a little unlikely. Mind you, if you can actually manage that the financial applications are interesting. I mean, making gold...

540:

AFAIK, Elon Musk never claimed his Mars colony is supposed to be self-sufficient.

If it's not self-sufficient then by definition it can't be a solution to the "the Earth is too fragile to keep all our eggs in one basket" problem that the space cadets chant in order to justify space colonization.

Look, if we succumb to climate destabilization-caused destabilization of agriculture, we end up starving. Which means resupply flights to Mars stop happening sooner rather than later. And then Mars starves, too (maybe from a shortage of rad-hardened chips, pharmaceuticals, or new sewing machine needles -- whatever's bottom of the shopping list but on a critical path for some other "system stops, everybody dies" element of the colony.)

541:

So I think we can safely assume that almost all of the cargo will be in pressurized, somewhat shielded and probably also heated compartments.

Yup. However, how pressurized, with what gas, and at what temperature, are all interesting variables.

For non-biologicals you probably don't want to use oxygen or air (80% nitrogen/16% oxygen/4% other stuff). Nitrogen is pretty good as an inert gas. Helium could be useful -- before landing, pump it all into a COPV and replace with nitrogen and it's part of the cargo. You could use methane: in emergency, liquefy it and you've got a small fuel reserve.

Again, temperature: if the cargo doesn't contain water you may be fine keeping it frozen at -20 or -40 celsius. Saves heating, reduces the need to insulate the cargo from the methalox fuel tankage.

Pressure: depends what you need to prevent vacuum welding or lubricant evaporation. Could be anything from 10 mbar (Mars surface pressure) up to 1000 mbar (Earth surface pressure).

542:

Well, we're past 300... today's column, by a well-known Nobel prize winning economist, mentions OGH as one of his favorite SF authors.... https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/opinion/musk-mars-twitter.html

543:

Including religion: where'd it come from (I favour Daniel Dennett's line of argument)

Mm, Dennett's view of religion is Eurocentric and dated. In the past couple of decades religious studies scholars have come to a broad consensus that religion as we know it is a construct of the post-medieval West. In fact, "religion" is difficult to define without making Western Christianity the norm. Thus you see many definitions of religion refering to: belief in God (which rules out some strands of Therevada Buddhism); adherence to creeds or dogmas (which rules out Navajo religion); personal assent to religious belief (which rules out ancient Roman religion); etc.

All the definitions of religion that I've seen that could include Therevada Buddhism, Navajo religion, and Scientology would apply equally well to to association football, or to American football. Or to celebrity worship. Or to capitalism. There are scholarly studies demonstrating how each of these functions as religion BTW. Another example: a recent book, very readable, Work Pray Code by Carolyn Chen, shows how the workplace has become a religion for tech workers in Silicon Valley.

I think a more interesting understanding of religion from a sf/f perspective would recognize that "religion" as a category arose in the post-medieval West as modern nation-states emerged. The division between "secular" and "religious" allowed nation-states to consolidate power over the "secular." "Religion" was thus defined as something of a disruptive force, that needed to be controlled by nation-states. At the same time, "religion" also proved to be an effective tool for controlling non-Western colonies.

Then, interesting near-future sf/f might speculate on: What happens as we move into an era when Western-style nation-states, the entities that first distinguished between "religious" and "secular," are no longer dominant? (Actually, Work Pray Code shows how that's happening right now.) And far-future sf/f world-building should probably assume that the binary distinction between "religious" and "secular" will go away, and/or not apply to non-Western cultures. (Actually, Ursula K. LeGuin did some of that in her later Hainish novels and stories.) But projecting "religion" into the far future is sort of like those Golden Age sf stories where the guys on space ships are still using slide rules....

544:

That isn't a parking-protected bike lane.

This is a parking-protected bike lane! (In Amsterdam.)

545:

Electric kettles? They're only now being sold in any number. The first two times in my life I ever saw one was a) about 15-20 years ago, when my late mother-in-law got one (Welsh war bride), then in '09, when I started my last job, and my manager (Brit ex-pat) had one for our "tea station".

546:

Several issues with your post:
1. We need a space-worthy Cosmoline.
2. They get assembled on delivery. (Some assembly required, with instructions better than those from Ikea.)
3. "Planned obsolescence" is punishable by 10-20 years in jail for execs overseeing the product, no exemptions, banned from interplanetary trade thereafter.

547:

THANK YOU! Finally, a way of getting rid of SUVs and massively oversized pickups, driven by idiots who can't drive. Give a small tax break for work vehicles (that are DEMONSTRABLY work vehicles. I say that because in '04, in FL, I was talking to a dentist who told me her accountant wanted her to buy an SUV as a "work vehicle".)

548:

LDEF, lumps of Skylab, several Dragon capsules and a multitude of Soyuz capsules would firmly disagree with you.

Shuttle, Soyuz, and Dragon all orbit inside the Van Allen belts, which protects them from most high energy cosmic radiation (and most solar radiation, too).

Relatively little stuff has been returned from outside the belts: Lunar surface samples, a couple of comet and asteroid samples, and that's about all. The Lunar surface sample collection apparatus (including Apollo space suits, Command Modules, etc) mostly only peeked outside the radiation belts for a couple of weeks. That leaves the Hayabusa sample return capsules and I think OSIRIS-REx, which isn't home yet. Sample masses are measured in milligrams to tens of grams; return capsules are in the tens to very low hundreds of kilograms.

549:

Needs more curb on the sidewalk side, because of idiot bikers in Spandex who want to pass.

550:

Yeah, a lot of the sale of big SUVs and pick-up trucks in the USA is driven by utterly perverse tax laws -- a "truck" with a kerb weight of over 4000lbs is a "commercial vehicle" and is thus 100% offsetable against earnings for tax purposes, or some such. So there's an incentive for self-employed people to drive monster trucks or Hummers instead of reasonably sized cars (because they're cheaper). Hence all the luxury interior trim options on the Ford F-150.

The equivalent in the UK would be if Ford made a version of the Transit (that's the UK Transit, not the tiny-ass American one -- the UK one is about the size of an F-150 and serves a similar role for businesses on Perpetually Rainy Island) with leather seats, walnut dash, high-end in-car entertainment, and a cigar humidor. Or something like that.

551:

Parking while blocking a parking-protected bike lane is certainly possible,

I assume you've seen this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzE-IMaegzQ

(Chap ticketed for riding a bike not in the bike lane proceeds to stick to the bike lane, no matter the obstacle ‚ including at least one police car parked in the bike lane.)

552:

Electric kettles? They're only now being sold in any number.

Really?

My family has used electric kettles as long as I can remember. Everyone I know has one, and uses it to boil water. In fact, finding a non-electric kettle (the kind that you heat on the stove) it quite difficult up here — I had to hunt to find one for camping.

553:

Needs more curb on the sidewalk side, because of idiot bikers in Spandex who want to pass.

I walked to my local grocery today to buy milk. Despite Yonge Street having a painted bike lane, I was nearly run down on the sidewalk by a cyclist (middle-age woman) who decided that weaving among pedestrians was safer.

https://goo.gl/maps/5CbmAGKeYZDBw8VV6

554:

That isn't a parking-protected bike lane.

This is a parking-protected bike lane! (In Amsterdam.)

While your Amsterdam example is a lot better, my Portland example is definitely a parking-protected bike lane.

555:

I assume you've seen this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzE-IMaegzQ

No - thanks for sharing. It's sad how some cops have so little common sense.

If this kind of cop were everywhere, our meetup.com bike rides in Portland would get thousands of tickets every time we went out!

556:

Despite Yonge Street having a painted bike lane, I was nearly run down on the sidewalk by a cyclist (middle-age woman) who decided that weaving among pedestrians was safer.

Sadly, she may have been correct (at least for herself). Bicyclists have been badly hurt or even killed while riding in bike lanes which are next to traffic lanes, like the one you showed. This is why parking-protected bike lanes (such as the one in Amsterdam that OGH showed us) are so much safer.

Personally, I have illegally biked on sidewalks many times due to safety concerns, but usually with no pedestrians around. If they are, I go really slow, and I warn them when I'm passing them from behind (I've been terrorized a number of times by unexpected bicyclists passing me closely from behind on sidewalks when I'm the one walking).

557:

By the way, it's nice to see those green-painted safety areas for bicyclists. Portland started using those a few years ago, and it has made downtown much safer for riders.

558:

Once the drivers (and any passengers) come out of their cages, don't they have priority over the bicyclists "who's lane" they have to cross to reach the sidewalk? They would in the UK, based on the latest (2022) Highway Code.

559:

OK, Voyager 1 & 2, Pioneer 10 & 11 and everything currently in orbit around Mars would like to disagree with him. Enough radiation to be dangerous would seriously affect the instruments and electronics. The Voyagers put their RTG on the end of a boom to keep radiation away from the research instruments. The asteroid sample returns only bring back a small quantity because changing orbits is hard and takes a lot of fuel, not because they are dangerously radioactive. The Apollo Lunar samples somehow fail to glow in the dark despite being exposed to space for billions of years. Bulk cargo to Mars isn't going to magically become radioactive and transmuted due to exposure to space.

560:

Once the drivers (and any passengers) come out of their cages, don't they have priority over the bicyclists "who's lane" they have to cross to reach the sidewalk?

I found the following interesting stuff regarding bicyclists and pedestrians in Oregon:

  • If a bicycle is being operated on the highway (which includes the sidewalk) the bicyclist has all the same rights and responsibilities as a motor vehicle operator. ORS 814.400, State of Oregon v. Potter, 185 Or.App. 81, 57 P.3d 944 (2002).
  • A bicyclist riding on the sidewalk also has the same rights and responsibilities under the law as a pedestrian. ORS 814.410(2).
  • A bicyclist must provide an audible warning before overtaking and passing a pedestrian on a sidewalk. ORS 814.410(1)(b).
  • A bicyclist must yield the right of way to all pedestrians on a sidewalk. ORS 814.410(1)(b).
  • A bicyclist is not allowed to operate a bicycle on a sidewalk in a careless manner that endangers any person or property. ORS 814.410(1)(c).
  • A bicyclist is not permitted to operate any electric assisted bicycle on a sidewalk. ORS 814.410(1)(e).

I couldn't find anything regarding pedestrians in parking-protected bike lanes, but I would assume that bicyclists must yield the right-of-way to them.

561:

"Relatively little stuff has been returned from outside the belts"

There are a lot of meteors composed of elements up through at least iron that have been exposed to the radiation environment within six AU from the sun for the last 4.5 gigayears. I don't know that any of them are remarkably radioactive from that exposure.

562:

While checking out some Oregon bike laws, I found this one about how to ride in bike lanes:

If a bicyclist is riding on a street that has a bicycle lane, the bicyclist is required to use the bicycle lane unless they are passing another vehicle, preparing to execute a turn, avoiding a hazardous condition, or where the bicycle lane becomes a right turn lane. ORS 814.420.

It seems odd that New York City (where the cop in the video ticketed a guy for not riding in the bike lane) doesn't have similar exceptions for leaving the bike lane.

563:

All the definitions of religion that I've seen that could include Therevada Buddhism, Navajo religion, and Scientology would apply equally well to to association football, or to American football. Or to celebrity worship. Or to capitalism. There are scholarly studies demonstrating how each of these functions as religion BTW. Another example: a recent book, very readable, Work Pray Code by Carolyn Chen, shows how the workplace has become a religion for tech workers in Silicon Valley.

We've got converging definitions. The work by Lynne Kelly I've been referring to starts with the Australian aborigines and works out towards more western systems. What we regard as quirky rituals around, say, hunting emus, have information about how the emu behaves (i.e. how to tell when you've been spotted when you're stalking one), how to lay out a good ambush, and so forth. Why ritualize it? To help knowledgeable people remember, and to help teach the next generation. Also, with things like animal behavior, it's often easier to use movement to show a behavior than words. Think about a cat person explaining to a non-cat person what ear and tail movements mean: if the ears go like this, it means she's happy, if this, then she's angry. That's a little hand dance of the cat totem people, if you're an outsider trying to understand.

Getting back to what you wrote, I've heard a former Taoist priest say that, in America, money's a god. The fact that Mammonism and Christianity are so different gets at the idea that religions are diverse, even among western intellectuals, not that there's a right religion and a wrong religion.

The real problem here isn't what you're saying or what I'm saying, it's that 90% of the people reading this are so Dunning Kruger'ed about religion that they figure they'll learn nothing by reading this, and skip it. That's what keeps this discussion going at a superficial level year after year.

564:

My family has used electric kettles as long as I can remember. Everyone I know has one, and uses it to boil water. In fact, finding a non-electric kettle (the kind that you heat on the stove) it quite difficult up here — I had to hunt to find one for camping.

The entire hot water kettle is more about culture than electricity voltages.

In the US, while it has gained a lot of mind share in the last few decades, tea is still a distant second (or worse) to coffee. And hot water plus instant coffee seems to be less an less of a thing. (Thank goodness.) Most US folks who drink a hot beverage (coffee) at home or work use a coffee maker of some sort to force the hot water over the grounds and into a pot. You can get simple 4 drinking cup ones for $10 or so up to the crazy Keurig environmentally crazy patented coffee buying lumps one cup at a time things for $100-$200. Most people have something in the middle.

And even so, many folks have hot water "things" which are not a kettle. Just because everyone around you does something a certain way doesn't mean it is the only or best way.

565:

Of some interest here: $1m community battery unveiled in Melbourne

Melbourne in general and Fitzroy in particular has one of the highest population densities in Australia and one of the most progressive/green-leaning local councils.

566:

That's pretty much the argument I was making for, yes.

567:

... although I guess they could send me there to die, but I just don't see the ROI.

Well, I think it would make an interesting retirement option. Consider that you might live long enough to contribute to the colony, and then when you die your body has lots of earth based organics that the rest of the colonists can use to grow stuff.

If you think about it, where else can you can give so much by just dying?

Some people might see this as the best way to end their lives.

568:

In the previous thread there was some speculation about Ulvalde and racism and policing. I'd mentioned a horrifying experience we'd had in border Texas with cops, which I was asked to describe.

We were stopped by we were not even sure what kind of cops: Border, highway patrol, tx rangers. They made all three of us get out of the car in which we were driving from doing an opera in the famous art colony of Marfa, back to San Antonio to catch flights home. They insisted on seeing every bit of i.d. we had, scanned them all, ran them through their computers, patted us down, pulled out all our luggage and went through it, and grilled us, starting with, "Why are you traveling together?" We did just barely make our flight after they finally, with great reluctance let us go -- and issuing the driver and renter of the car a speeding ticket for going over the speed limit, which to this day we are certain he was not doing.

For what it's like down there, in arguably the most policed place on the globe -- really and truly, Cuba hasn't even at its most repressive way back in the day, come anywhere within range of what southern TX is and has been for a very long time -- read this article in the Texas Observer:

[ "UVALDE AND THE BORDER SECURITY SCAM In South Texas, an international military apparatus lords over Latino residents. It took one man mere minutes to make a mockery of it.: ]

https://www.texasobserver.org/uvalde-and-the-border-security-scam/

569:

Likely Customs and Border Patrol. There is a federal law that they can stop anyone within xxx miles of the border and make sure they are "legal".

570:

That's not how cosmic radiation works. 90% protons and 9% alpha particles (helium nuclei) and 1% ionised everything else will certainly damage organic material but they won't activate the contents or structure of a spacecraft. You need neutrons for that.

571:

so Dunning Kruger'ed about religion that they figure they'll learn nothing by reading this

Cue the famous opening of Terry Eagleton's review of The God Delusion by Richard Dawkins: "Imagine someone holding forth on biology whose only knowledge of the subject is the Book of British Birds, and you have a rough idea of what it feels like to read Richard Dawkins on theology." It's not the only area where Dawkins' demonstrates ignorance, I'd suggest that anyone who could author the "Dear Muslima" has shown that any opinion he has to offer outside his own specialist area of expertise is automatically suspect. It comes across as a certain unexamined privilege around one's own position and social and cultural context, where there's a large emotional investment in a very limited and non-reflective version of positivism.

I tend toward a very positivist outlook myself: I really want to believe that the world is understandable. Maybe not inherently so, but at least collectively we possess the capability to develop a consensus reality that is coherent and honest. I think that the Dawkins type of positivist is very limited in scope for this. We ourselves are part of that reality so studying how we think about reality and what we ourselves do is also inherently important to developing any perspective that is more broadly useful than just within our narrow social context. The barest minimum is that your system of understanding reality has to account for viewpoints outside your social context, without the sort of handwaving about religion or bad faith that these limited world views always seem to cough up.

572:

Japan has these wonderful origami pre-filled coffee filters that unfold and sit on the rim of a cup or mug before the user pours near-boiling water over them from a kettle to brew a single fresh cup of coffee. I want some, I can't find anyone who sells them here in the UK.

573:

Getting back to the original topic for a moment, an argument to abolish the monarchy if they don't get a clue in a hurry:

"Queen Elizabeth is well known as one of the largest landowners in the world. Less well known is that her holdings include most of the seabed encircling the United Kingdom, out to 12 nautical miles from shore...Britain’s declining biodiversity gains attention and the royal family has been urged to take on greater leadership in restoring nature—starting with the properties they control...Yet lately efforts to restore coastal waters have encountered obstacles unique to this monarchy—ones that have chased a kelp farmer to a more welcoming reception in southeast Asia, for example, and that threaten to derail the largest effort to replant seagrass ever undertaken in Britain.

"The U.K. is in no position to lose such opportunities, advocates say. Nearly half of the country’s wildlife and plant species have been lost since the Industrial Revolution, according to a biodiversity monitoring initiative launched last year by London’s Natural History Museum. Britain now ranks in the bottom 10 percent of the world and as the worst among G-7 nations.

"Scientists describe the loss of seagrass meadows and kelp forests that ring the coastline in a single word: catastrophic."

574:

A theme that's emerged from much of the discussion on the OP topic here, is that the "if it ain't broke" argument might apply without other considerations, the "there are more pressing concerns" argument breaks down precisely where the ongoing existence of the Monarchy is a barrier to resolving those issues, or where working out what to do with, or instead of, the Monarchy creates opportunities for resolving other concerns that would not otherwise be available. In the Oz (and other ex-colonial) context a lot of the opportunities could be in terms of way to provide First Peoples justice. Of course, the UK is just as much a product of colonialism as anywhere, so some kinds of change bring opportunities even there.

The downside is the "what to do with the Monarchy" is close to being a similar problem to "what to do with the billionaires". Over a certain timescale it's (sort of) the exact same problem, I guess...

575:

if you're doing a new installation anyway, then you have the freedom to do it properly from the start

Yes. The best I've seen was my mother's plan before the architect got to it. Inside the house a large linen cupboard with insulation all round, and the hot water tank at the back of it (~50cm of shelves in front, but also space to the sides). It made the thing about 1.5m square externally, but it would have worked quite well IMO. Allegedly she saw something like it, either on Grand Designs or in person, and really liked it.

Apparently that took too much space, but frankly I've yet to see a house plan that didn't have what I consider to be wasted space so I reckon we're even on that. The building designer I'm using is apparently off dreaming up ideas and I'm busy writing a proper brief with the help of my architect ex-gf. Early feedback was that I am putting in too many random details and not enough explanation, so the latest "brief" is about 3000 words. And about 10 diagrams. It should be "why" not "what", the architect does the "what".

So, "insulation around the hot water cylinder to save energy" not "a 1.5m square linen cupboard containing the HWS". Whatever, I know what I want.

576:

Well a heated cupboard you can dry clothes in is totally a bonus when it doesn't stop raining for a week and you don't want to use a tumble drier. Holiday rental we stayed in last week had the hot water in a cupboard under the stairs, though not really insulated.

577:

Robert Prior said: There must be a name for this type of auction. And ways of gaming it. And ways of countering the gaming.

I think it's called a spot market. There's ways of gaming it. The simplest is for the largest generator to simply shut down part of their operation. If they shut down half, and the price more than doubles then they make more money. The simplest way of countering that is to lower the bar to entering the market. Make connecting a generator to the grid cheap, and add ownership laws so no single entity can buy up a significant share of generating capacity, so that no one generator can dominate like that. Inherently a world grid does this simply by scale.

So that's the simple gaming and the simple fix. As usual it gets more complex as you delve deeper. The gaming gets more complex and the fix gets harder.

https://www.unswlawjournal.unsw.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Issue-444-Chan.pdf

578:

There is a federal law that they can stop anyone within xxx miles of the border and make sure they are "legal".

As I understand it that's actually "within 100 miles of any border or international port, including airports" and when you actually plot population against those criteria very few people live outside that rule and even fewer never enter it.

579:

PS, that's before you even consider FCAS. I've heard it said that the Tesla Autobidder can simply transfer arbitrarily large amounts of money from legacy coal and gas generators into their account. Sounds possible. Consider that it's a 5 minute market and a coal generator takes hours, a gas generator takes several minutes, to react to changing markets, and can only generate, while the Tesla battery can react at time intervals less than one peak to the next in the AC wave and can switch from load to generator.

Knowing that, the Elon haters might want to consider for a moment that he hasn't done this.

580:

[AlanD2] Portland has recently started putting bike lanes between the sidewalk and the car parking lane.

[OGH] This only really works if there's a raised kerb between the bike lane and the car parking lane.

Portland uses plastic poles on rubber strain reliefs screwed to the pavement with hard plastic collars. Sadly, no Claymores.

581:

And a picture of the Portland lane protectors

582:

Yeah, a lot of the sale of big SUVs and pick-up trucks in the USA is driven by utterly perverse tax laws...

I think it's more about a big truck/SUV being a status symbol in some circles. Certainly in the Gulf Coast state where my brothers live, the folks driving the big pickups don't look like they're using them for work.

583:

Portland uses plastic poles on rubber strain reliefs screwed to the pavement with hard plastic collars.

These are more common in Portland, but parking-protected bike lanes also exist. See my post #533, showing the intersection of Broadway and Clay.

584:

Likely Customs and Border Patrol. There is a federal law that they can stop anyone within xxx miles of the border and make sure they are "legal".

Does that include ports of entry?

I recall reading in pre-Trump (but post-911) days that Homeland Security had lots of extra powers within 200 miles??? of the border or port of entry — and ports of entry included airports with international flights.

585:

We have something like those in downtown Toronto.

They get knocked down by cars a lot. And once a few are down, motorists start using the bike lanes for parking.

https://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/the_fixer/2018/11/11/bike-lane-bollards-keep-getting-mowed-down-by-vehicles.html

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/cycle-toronto-says-bollards-too-flimsy-calls-for-permanent-solution-1.4902468

https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/08/bike-lane-separators-flattened-cars-two-weeks-installed-toronto/

Of course, any law needs at least the chance of enforcement to be effective. And the Toronto police have demonstrated that they will actively discipline officers who enforce laws defending cyclists.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/parking-officers-twitter-account-suspended-by-toronto-police/article36829256/

And private citizens also get in on the fun:

“A new low for Toronto drivers. This man tried to kill me today on my bike. I complained that he had stopped blocking a bike lane on college. He chased after me and rammed me with his car. I managed to swerve but if I hadn’t I would be dead.”

Fraser went on to say that he did contact the authorities, but that no discipline followed. “The Toronto Police say that this is a minor traffic incident and not an attempted assault. That’s a very weird way to look at someone who has attempted to kill another person. I don’t want to live in this stupid city any more where nothing makes sense. I feel completely let down.”

https://cyclingmagazine.ca/advocacy/a-toronto-driver-chased-a-cyclist-and-rammed-him-being-told-they-were-blocking-a-bike-lane/

586:

Yeah, up here SUVs and pickups don't get tax breaks, but they are more common than cars in many areas. SUVs are sold as being "safer" than other vehicles. Pickups are very much tied in with masculine identity.

Politically, anything that threatens pickups would be a third rail for any federal party wrt. the Prairies (especially Alberta).

587:

And a picture of the Portland lane protectors

These are erupting from the pavement all over the US. Raleigh, NC has them all over the place as we try and make the city bike friendly.

They also keep the impatient for no reason drivers from using the bike lanes as a turn or passing (on the wrong side illegal) lane.

Well at least those who don't want to scrub too much paint off the front bumper of their car.

588:

Does that include ports of entry?

No.

Here's a non conservative take on it.

https://www.aclu.org/other/constitution-100-mile-border-zone

589:

Yeah, a lot of the sale of big SUVs and pick-up trucks in the USA is driven by utterly perverse tax laws

Ah, news to me and a lot of others around here. You get the same percentage tax break on a vehicle used for business no mater a 20 year old Honda Civic or a Mercedes luxury sedan or a $80K pickup. Now that doesn't stop someone from buying a $50K pickup truck for their handyman job and driving it 50% of the time for personal reasons but claiming it at 95% of the time for business. The odds of getting caught are fairly low. It is easier to do with a pickup truck than claim a Lexus sedan for use in a tree trimming operation.

There are registration fees where games can be played but those typically are $20 to $100 per year depending on state. Maybe higher in communist California or "we have too many cars" NYC.

590:

A heated cupboard - aka “airing cupboard” in the UK as of when I grew up - isn’t really a place to dry things. Where is all the moisture going? You really don’t want it in an enclosed space.

We use a dehumidifier in the guest bathroom as a laundry drying facility when it is too wet/cold outside for a washing line. Which, it has to be said is quite a lot of the year up here.

591:

Apropos comments a while back, I actually took a day out from several months of 400 hours a week work (well it feels like it anyway) and trundled off to our nearest town for some shopping and model flying. It’s not a big town, and not a particularly fancy one but I must have seen 50 or more Teslas on my travels along with perhaps a dozen other BEVs. And you know what - not a single one exploded in front of me.

592:

Car fires make the news around here. 1 million or so people in the county. I've also yet to see one about a Tesla. And I suspect we have more than the typical per capita share for the country as a whole.

Most recent car fire incident I remember around here was some whack job tossing Molotov cocktails under police crossover SUVs at a police substation parking lot. He managed to light up 3 before a policeman showed up. When he started throwing the cocktails at the policemen they started shooting back. Not much was made that something like 30 shots were fired. I guess when someone is throwing fire at you you are allowed to operate with less restraint.

I don't remember reading if they found out a motive.

593:

Foxwssa
THANK YOU
And - euw.
However, even here: We are having serious problems - as certain parts of our police forces are becoming Americanised.
Time for Sir Robert Mark, part 2 I think - { "I hope to arrest more criminals than I'm employing" } - which is a paraphrase.

Damian
SLIGHT PROBLEM there is that Eagleton is a deliberate liar & fraud.
FIRST you have to show that "Theology" is a valid subject at all - like: Does any "god" actually exist - please provide evidence?
No evidence for any "god" - dismiss the whole thing, then!

Moz
Your mother's plan is more-or-less what I've got (!)

594:

581 - We have similar in 2 forms in Glasgow. Plastic poles as per 580 and 581, and hard rubber bumps which can launch one side of a car into the air and leave it uncontrollable for several seconds! Sadly "Streetview" doesn't have coverage on the only routes I know have this particular hazard on them.

591 - I don't claim to have personally seen more than one incident of a V@*xh@11 Z@f1r@ spontaneously combusting. But if I and 10 other honest reporters all report one such incident from different areas, I actually do conclude that there is some sort of a hazard to deal with.

593 - Theology is not just the study of "God", but also religion. From which I have concluded that atheism is a religion, and that the opposite of religion is "don't care".

595:

Yes, but Eagleton's comment only rings true if you make the assumption that the fine detail of any religion has any meaningful content.

Centuries of effort was spent, by a variety of people, trying to generate an interpretation of the Bible that was self consistent. It got so tough they threw out books that caused problems and would go though convoluted, mental gymnastics to make the whole edifice hold together. All of which, was only needed because the alternative might be to consider that the entire structure was based on a foundation - that the books were inspired by a supreme executive being - that was about as solid as a pile of fetid dingoes kidneys on a hot day. But that was never going to happen as Popes, Cardinals, Abbots, Priests and all the hangers on would lose their privileged position in society and the lifestyle associated with it.

Acknowledging other people’s viewpoints – such as a belief in a diety, football team or political ideology - is fine. But the fact someone has a view doesn't make that view correct, nor, in any absolute sense, important. They are, generally, not even enlightening as examples of human behaviour, as they are but variations on a theme. The fact that people believe bizarre stuff and deem it important, even in the complete absence of any evidential base is worth knowing – as is knowing that, after suitable indoctrination, some will kill in support of it.

Lots of people had the viewpoint that the Earth was the centre of the universe and/or that disease was caused by ill humours. Similarly, lots of people believe in a God, spirits, ghosts, reincarnation, alien abduction and the Loch Ness monster. While its important to be aware of this, the detail of what each group believes in is rather less important than whether its based on an objective reality or merely a cultural habit.

As far as I can see Dawkin’s was mainly saying “This God you believe in: where is the evidence?” with a side order of “The Old Testament God is a bit of shit too isn’t he!”.

596:

This is all missing the point that the concept of religion as a separate form of knowledge or activity is a modern one. Untangling the "theological" roots from the main trunk of positivism is largely conceptually impossible, including the very epistemology that calls for an evidentiary basis for truth claims. Pretending that we've actually already done it, and when we encounter cultures that still have everything mixed in together, they are the ones who are wrong about their understanding of the world, is just a kind of lack of self-awareness that may as well be called imperialism.

597:

Paws
Erm ... NO "My hobby is not collecting stamps"
In the specific case Eagleton is a christian, so we are talking about that specific BigSkyFairy, so let's see some actual evidence that it/he/she/they exists, first? . - . - as Grant says:
make the assumption that the fine detail of any religion has any meaningful content. - and it clearly does not.

Except from essay follows:

  • No “god” is detectable.
    { - even if that god is supposed to exist. }
    Not detectable directly or indirectly, or as an emergent phenomenon. No events or causations exist that are not explicable in the normal course of natural causes and random occurrences. This includes, most importantly, the information-flow that must pass to and from any "god", so that he, she, it, or they can themselves observe, or intervene in "their" universe. If there is any god around, then that information-flow will also be detectable. Where is it?
    Furthermore, one can start from mass-less, charge-less particles (photons), go up through neutrinos to greater aggregations of matter, then to living things and further up the scale of size to planets & out into deep space & time, to supergalaxy clusters many millions (or even billions) oflight-years distant. Nowhere, at any place or time in these constructs is any “god” visible or detectable in any way. Nor, most importantly is there any “emergent phenomenon” resulting from interactions of subsidiary systems displaying any detectable properties of anything that might be described under the heading of “god”.
    Please note, even if only for the point of argument: - this statement is emphatically NOT "God does not exist". That is the viewpoint of the committed atheist, who believes an unprovable(?) negative, with as much evidence, or lack of it, as any deist believes in any sort of god. On the other hand, given the total, continued and increasing lack of evidence, the conclusion that no “god” exists is the logical one to follow, unless and until any real, actual evidence to the contrary shows up.
    This applies equally to any god at all: Marxist, Muslim, Christian, Jewish, etc….
  • Religions fulfill certain criteria. One of the most obvious is that of unalterable belief in the holy words of the prophet(s), whose word may not be questioned, and whose sayings must be learnt. People who do question these teachings will be persecuted, and possibly killed. This leads towards propositions 2 and 5. ( Not shown here )
    Monotheistic religions, in particular, are mutually exclusive. A maximum of one of them can be "true". Their central beliefs and tenets make this so, and this also leads to props 2 and 5. The attempt by ecumenicals to blend or blur the distinctions between major faiths and sects, or to say, as some of them do: "We worship the same god under different aspects", will not wash. This is because the central core beliefs of each religion in the divinity or the divine revelation of their own leader(s), and the secondary nature of "other" prophets make them incompatible. See also a point on “blasphemy” below. For example: "There is no changing the Quran. The Quran is a perfect guide for humanity. (Neither) Human law nor science is above Allah". What the relatively enlightened, but deluded people of “faith” are looking at are the common ethical rules that should govern any civilised society. It is not a good idea to kill, lie, steal, or otherwise make one's self obnoxious. But, one does not need any god, or religion, to have these rules.

    Believers appear to derive comfort from the statement that science cannot prove the nonexistence of god. They describe any attempt at such proof as an arrogant mistake. We are supposed to infer that an equal weight is assigned to the alternatives of existence and nonexistence, and that a believer is no less reasonable than a non-believer. It is amusing to extend this line of argument as follows by a very familiar example. Can a scientist, in his laboratory, perform an experiment demonstrating that there is no such creature as the mystical invisible pink unicorn? No. Can he deduce that conclusion from quantum mechanics, relativity, or the theory of evolution? No. Thus, is a belief in the mystical invisible pink unicorn intellectually respectable? No. Advocates of the science-cannot-disprove gambit are opening the door to an unnumbered host of unwelcome guests. The mystical invisible pink unicorn is only one example; don't forget the tooth fairy, or the Ming-period vase orbiting the Sun in an oppositional orbit, or …

    598:

    "Furthermore, one can start from mass-less, charge-less particles (photons), go up through neutrinos to greater aggregations of matter, then to living things and further up the scale of size to planets & out into deep space & time, to supergalaxy clusters many millions (or even billions) oflight-years distant. Nowhere, at any place or time in these constructs is any "god" visible or detectable in any way."

    That sounds very like Dorfl's challenge to the priests to find his life.

    599:

    The main issue with travel outside the Van Allen belts is high energy cosmic rays, in the >5GeV range.

    We're safe from them down here because we're inside the Earth's magnetic field and underneath an atmosphere equivalent to a 10 metre deep swimming pool in terms of radiation attenuation. But cosmic rays are horrendously strong ionization sources (like alpha radiation, only much more penetrating) and shielding against them requires a lot of hydrogenated mass -- water is good, so is methane, but you're talking about a blanket at least a metre thick, so hundreds to thousands of tons needed. And they come from all directions, so that's spherical coverage, not just unidirectional (which is why solar flares are actually more survivable than a long duration interplanetary mission).

    A 90-day transfer orbit to Mars doesn't get you so much exposure to cosmic rays that you'd show clinical symptoms of radiation sickness, but it's not good for you. A multi-year Jupiter mission ... you might arrive alive, but you'd be rather ill, immunosuppressed, and probably riddled with cancer.

    600:

    As a sort of counterpoint to "the US electric grid can't be good because profits" theme.

    The city where I live now -- pop 180k and growing explosively -- owns and operates the distribution network on a nonprofit basis. Together with three other municipal utilities they own the power authority which generates (or acquires from outside) power, and operates a transmission grid to tie things together. The authority is also a nonprofit. The power is by far the cleanest and most reliable of any place I've ever lived. In almost two years now, despite snow and ice storms, 60-knot straight line winds, and big lightning storms, the appliances and hobbyist embedded computers have not reset. Even once.

    The authority has committed to be no-carbon by 2030. Existing hydro/wind/solar installations provide between 25% and 65% of the power at any one time. About 50% of the total power delivered this year will be from those renewable sources. There's a current RFP out to add a big chunk of storage. At least one of the responses will be for a very large pumped hydro system near one of the to-be-retired fossil-fuel generators, at least if the developer can be believed. Myself, I don't think the authority will make it that soon and will have to burn natural gas from time to time to fill gaps during an interim.

    601:

    The trick is for co-ops like yours to not turn into a WPPSS.

    I don't know if it is an issue of size, wrong people coming together at the wrong time, or just a sense of "we're top dogs and know better than everyone else" or something else.

    602:

    Yes, Greg, we know that your religion is atheism. That's fine.

    What do religious studies scholars study? As Dan essentially said in 543, they define religion as whatever people do religiously, meaning it's something that involves their belief that they organize their lives around.

    Is Buddhism a religion in the worshiping sense? Yes and no. In the original form, it wasn't about worship, it was a practice meant to help people stop reincarnating, under the premise that if life sucks, you die, get reborn, and life sucks in a totally different way, stepping off the cycle seems like a reasonable thing to do. In Buddha's milieu and even today, the Hindu gods, even the universe itself, die and get reborn too. And even heavens and hells pass away, so nothing is permanent, except for change and rebirth. Or...liberate yourself.

    Later versions of Buddhism (particularly in Japan), hold that the Dharma's been lost to this world. Therefore they pray to existing boddhisattvas for mercy, so that they can be reborn in a world where they can attain enlightenment and liberation from the cycle of reincarnation.

    I'm bringing up this example because a scholar of religion would say that Buddhist monks certainly do organize their lives around their practices. By their scholarly standards, Buddhism is a religion.

    Similarly, it can be fun to read anthropology PhDs where the researcher has worked in PNG. They have some fun initiatory practices, and some of them are willing to talk to students (more fun than talking to missionaries, apparently). One that caught my attention is a graded system, where they start by teaching kids to be adults, boot-camp style, and part of that teaching is a whole big wad of mythology. As the kids get towards middle age, the higher levels of initiation reveal that the whole system is made up, much as we do with Santa Claus. Part of the reason they do that (per the researcher) is that they live fairly harsh lives in the New Guinea mountains, and they all have to struggle with bad crop years, storms, earthquakes, and colonialists. A big lesson of the system is how to keep going when all you thought you knew is revealed to have been incomplete or wrong. Is this a religion? Yes, by scholarly definition.

    The point where I hope this gets uncomfortable for you, Greg, is when you avoid realizing that organizing your life around the idea that all religions are some form of the crap you dealt with as a child, has become a religion in itself. Over the years, we've held open a door that and said "there's a huge diversity of stuff that people organize their lives around" and your predictable response is "that's all stupid, I don't care what god they believe in, they're wrong." You're the only one positing god worship here.

    The same problem goes for all righteous, committed atheists. If your belief is that all religion is about gods, and gods don't exist, by scholarly definition, you're practicing a religion too, because you've organized your life around and proselytize your beliefs. And as y'all demonstrate fairly regularly, you can be strongly religious without having a god in sight.

    As for me? I'm neither an atheist nor a theist. I believe in the subjective existence of gods. I believe that the world more or less objectively exists. I believe that humans are stuck perceiving the world subjectively, because that's what helped out ancestors have and bring up kids. And I believe that science is a generally useful technique that people can use to try to sort out what's likely to be objectively true for everyone, from among all the subjective understandings that we have to have to be human. I also believe that, if belief in a subjective deity or deities helps you better live your life, believe.

    Do I have any evidence that any god of any religion is objectively real? Nope. However, I do think the Sun, the Earth and the Earth's biosphere should qualify as Gods for anyone who has any sense. In this case, I'm not talking about mystical Gaianism, but rather about the notion that human life utterly depends on Earth's protection from space, just as we utterly depend on Earth's biosphere for food, water, air, and materials to burn and use. I think we should organize our lives around making sure that the parts of the Biosphere we depend on continue to be able to support us and our successors for the indefinite future. That's my religion.

    If you want to organize your life around the proposition that there's no difference between subjective and objective reality and therefore gods don't exist? If it makes you happy, go for it, but you might have difficulties when you don't distinguish between your personal subjective reality and the objective reality we all share.

    603:

    The perversity of the tax laws happen at point of manufacture. Sometime back in the 70s the US had a trade dispute with Europe about (I think) chickens. As a retaliatory measure the US imposed a tariff on 'light truck' imports which still stands today.

    That gave US auto manufacturers a competitive advantage in light trucks. The quickly lobbied to classify various SUVs as 'light trucks' and pushed hard on the marketing, maximizing their appeal to consumers while maximizing their own profit margins. 'Light trucks' also have less stringent safety requirements, so manufacturers are able to save more there as well.

    Net result - a market saturated with SUVs classified as 'light trucks', heavily marketed as 'safer', to the point that many North American automakers have abandoned smaller vehicles altogether.

    Perverse, destructive and entirely predictable.

    604:

    H
    NOT EVEN WRONG The whole point of Atheism is that it is NOT a "religion" - that "Holy Books" - which are inevitably bollocks - are not followed.
    That circumstances alter cases, etc ....
    Buddhism is a religion without a "god" yes, but that's not what we wre talking about.
    It's not about me - I can see - all too clearly how religion { Particularlry religion with "gods" } is fucking with peoplle's heads & lives & killing & torturing them. Mind you the religions of Buddhism ( Myanmar ) & Communism - a classic religion - also do all the usual murderous lying tricks, too.

    605:

    "I have concluded that atheism is a religion."

    Bull.

    Let's see, don't you believe in God (tm)? No. How can you be sure that God isn't there? Show me evidence. Repeat 500 times, and the "no" becomes "it's all bullshit", and the other side is "see! I knew your atheism is a religion".

    Now, for fun and games, once #2 has decided that God does not exist, given zero evidence, how does that affect their life? Let's see, they have more free time, not going to religious services, and...

    Please explicate what effects of what you allege is a religion of atheism has on their lives. Unless you can, to the atheist, saying there is no god is on par with "I don't like Pepsi".

    606:

    And the problem with putting water in a layer outside the living/transport areas of a ship are? There's your water supply.... Plus, I've thought of doing that for a Real space station (the Wheel, please). Let the inner parts "float", and it would balance movement inside the rotating station.

    607:

    Hey Charlie, I know this is off topic, but I thought you might be interested to know that Paul Krugman just mentioned you in his latest opinion piece in the New York Times, titled Elon Musk, Mars and the Modern Economy.
    Unfortunately, I believe it's behind the Times' paywall. In the article, he references your July 23rd, 2010 blog post titled Insufficient Data.
    Both articles discuss the minimum number of people it would take to maintain a modern economy on Mars.

    Thanks for everything!

    608:

    I've been following the staff presentations to the board of directors, and I will say this: if you go down my list of things they need to do to get to no-carbon (and their customer base is strongly no-nuclear), they're checking all of the boxes: resource diversity, geographic diversity, demand management, storage...

    609:

    In the case of Dawkins and Greg, ranting on about it to the point that other atheists are utterly sick of hearing their dogmas. In the case of Dawkins, add writing crappy books and so on.

    I could add hate speech, especially against Muslims. If Dawkins had said the same things about Jews that he has said about Muslims, he would have a significant criminal record.

    610:

    It seems like your power co-op is a good thing. I'm not saying it isn't.

    I'm asking the question of why some good co-op power and similar things go bad like WPPSS?

    611:

    Let's take a self-declared atheist; call him "Greg", because that's his name. Does Greg, like most proselytising theists, go around saying "This is the One True Way, and you must follow it"? I submit that the answer is "yes."
    I then go on to conclude that if it looks, moves and quacks like a duck, it is a duck, whether it claims to be one or not.

    612:

    Thought y'all might enjoy this:

    The Theft of the Commons

    613:

    ilya187 @ 529:

    Virginia Dare of Roanoke Island would like a word ...

    614:

    It's the quantity of water that's the problem, not where to put it! (Also keeping it from freezing and blowing out a tank wall, but that's solvable.) A cube of water 1 metre on an edge has a mass of a ton. Approximating your living space to a cube with 3m edges (for 81 cubic metres, and a cube b/c I'm too lazy to break out the calculator and look it up for spheres) would require a 5m edge cubic volume of water -- 125 m^3 -- minus the inner 3m edge cube, to provide adequate shielding: that's 44 cubic metres of water, or 44 tons. An Orion capsule has a pressurized volume of 20 m^3, for 2-6 astronauts on a max 21 day mission, and weighs 10.4 tons; I'm guessing 4x the volume for 6 astronauts for Earth-Mars isn't unreasonable.

    So we're looking as a mass of water shielding roughly the same as the habitable spacecraft itself ... and that mass has to come home from Mars because you still need the shielding on the return trip.

    My WAG is that adequate cosmic ray shielding effectively doubles the mass of the crew section of the mission, which if you're using chemical propulsion is Not Good for going interplanetary, especially as you need to carry fuel to slow down at the far end, more fuel for the Earth return boost, then yet more for Earth orbit capture (you don't want to re-enter a big heavy capsule at interplanetary return velocity if you can help it).

    615:

    I hadn't noticed that... except what someone decided to bear bait him, and gets him annoyed.

    616:

    Charlie Stross @ 538:

    Can we make it "vehicles over 20 years old" so I can keep my Jeep? (2003 model, so it will be over 20 by the time your law gets through the various national legislatures)

    FWIW, when I drive the Jeep on the roads & streets1, I drive with the same courtesy & care I exercised driving the Focus (or the Escort that preceded it ... and the Pinto I once drove).

    Just because you own a big car doesn't mean you have to drive like an asshole, and in some respects, IF YOU DON'T, you're safer from those who do riding in a larger vehicle.
    --

    1 Actually, I've tried to drive with courtesy & care where-ever and when-ever I've driven. It's just that with the Jeep I can drive some places I couldn't have driven the Focus-Escort-Pinto ...

    617:

    timrowledge @ 539:

    If I were going to do transmutation for financial gain, I think I'd concentrate on metals that are worth more than their weight in gold ... titanium perhaps?

    https://theaviationgeekclub.com/did-you-know-that-titanium-used-to-build-the-iconic-sr-71-blackbird-mach-3-spy-plane-came-from-soviet-union/

    618:

    Charlie Stross @ 541:

    Maybe, since you KNOW it's going to leak, design a system that starts out at 1000 mbar (Earth surface pressure) with the leakage over the course of the journey leaving you with 10 mbar (Mars surface pressure) at the other end?

    619:

    I know he got banned here years ago, but Alex Tolley's old spacecoach idea was kind of neat, in that he tried to find as many uses for spacecraft water as possible, rather than just carrying it as a shield. I actually bought the book, and it's an interesting exercise.

    620:

    David L @ 564:

    FWIW, you can make tea (U.S. style for making iced tea) in a drip coffee maker - either put loose tea in the filter basket or tea-bags in the carafe.

    My 4-cup Mr. Coffee is going on 40 years old (at least). I'm using a replacement carafe (and have another boxed spare replacement up in the cupboard). I also have a second 4-cup maker (not Mr. Coffee brand) from when I had an apartment down at school so I wouldn't have to carry the Mr. Coffee back & forth when I came home on the weekends.

    621:

    RE: electricity markets.

    Turns out there's a whole Wikipedia page on electricity markets. Shocking, I know.

    622:

    In a way this is (sort of) concentric with the OP, since the UK does have a state religion and the monarch is its chief primate. The CoE famously is full of atheists, some of whom "pass", some of whom are quite "out" about it and a few of whom form their own communions (or even bishoprics, sort of). I'd also add that since the 18th century, the CoE has a strongly positivist streak... the royal patronage of the Royal Society sort of makes it a quasi-CoE branch office anyway. You could call the CoE a positivist shop in pretty well most ways, although there are hold-outs for the more conservative and theocratically inclined. Dawkins, being neither especially progressive nor swayed by the theocratic arguments comes across as a particularly ranty bishop in the atheist wing, prothletising a specific doctrine of faith in an inquisitorial mode. That it's a faith in a specific style of positivism, one that is intolerant of heretics (gosh, those anthropologists are just as made as the theists!) and therefore auto schismatic (not ALL atheists) in some ways is beside the point.

    Okay, it's you, me and probably H who are saying "not all atheists", but at least we're a bit self-aware about it :)

    623:

    617 - Not "know" so much as "am not surprised that".

    622 - s/UK/Ingurlundshire. The establishment of the CoE took place during the reign of Henry VIII (Tudor), before the Union of the Crowns of Scotland (which takes precedence here since James VI of Scotland was invited to ascend the English throne and become James I of England, and James VI and I) and England.
    This is also why the present Queen Lillibet should be Elizabeth I (and II but only in England).
    BTW, what I'm saying is that not all atheists feel the need to try and convert others, any more than all theists feel the need to convert everyone to the Second Church of Offler, Ahnk-Morpork (with acknowledgements to Pterry),

    624:

    EC
    OK, who are the people ( & what is/are the religion(s) of those people ) who actually go around both threatening & actually killing those who disagree with them, claiming "blasphemy" ???
    Answer, at present muslims & christians ....
    NOT atheists.

    Paws
    Actually, no, I don't.
    I'm merely saying that - based on objective evidence, like piles of skulls - that religion(s) are murderous lying shit (!) & that you might be better off without them/it.

    JBS
    The Great Green Beast was first registered in 1996 ....

    paws
    I'm not trying to "convert" anyone ... merely pointing out that religion is murderous shit - what you then do about it is up to you.

    625:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/notjustbikes/comments/v8rolh/new_vs_old_mini_cooper/

    For those who haven't seen it... the new supersized Mini Cooper vs the old Mini Cooper. The new one is enormous by comparison.

    626:

    OK, who are the people ( & what is/are the religion(s) of those people ) who actually go around both threatening & actually killing those who disagree with them, claiming "blasphemy" ??? Answer, at present muslims & christians ....NOT atheists.

    Sure, atheists are way up there in major-league religious persecution.

    Let's talk about that ardent Christian, Mao Zedong, who did his best to destroy Buddhist, Taoist, and traditional temples and monasteries throughout China and Tibet. More recently, Mao's successors have been engaging in a Uyghur genocide, and I'm sure you know Uyghurs are Muslim. Or how about the treatment of Fa Lun Gong?

    Let's talk about Stalin's anti-cosmopolitan campaign against Soviet Jews. Or, more generally, his anti-religious campaigns. This was a country that was officially atheist, and kept churches open at times only because they were the "opiate of the masses," but in the long run intended to eliminate all religion.

    Then there were the Killing Fields under the Khmer Rouge, whose official policy was state atheism.

    Then there's the continuing communist Vietnamese persecution of the Hmong, for, among other reasons, being Christian.

    To be fair, I looked up claims that the communist Tamil Tigers invented suicide bombing. They did not. But they did popularize its use, apparently.

    Here endeth the lesson.

    627:

    Someone further down the thread noted that the larger car isn't a Cooper, but a Countryman. Which does appear to be the case.

    Here is a comparison of the two models in 2020:

    https://www.vistamini.com/mini-cooper-vs-mini-countryman-research.html

    628:

    Atheists are, broadly, as monolithic as Christians.

    For Christians, I classify into NewAge, Moderate, and evangelical. Basically, good, okay, and bad company. NewAge - ignores more harmful Christian teachings. Moderate - still harmful, but not obnoxious about it. Evangelical - don't trust near children. Tends to evangelicize.

    For atheists, I classify into traumatized and non-traumatized.

    The traumatized tend to be quite vocal and somewhat religious. The stories of harm from the religious leave me fairly sympathetic, but not terribly interested.

    The non-traumatized find religion vaguely amusing / absurd and somewhat dangerous. We tend to be fairly quiet and disinclined to argue with the religious. (Most reasonable people have learned that arguing with the mentally ill is not productive.)

    Traumatized atheists are overrepresented online. Non-traumatized, aside from a mild resentment towards the taxable status of churches, kind of accept that Christianity will take, optimistically, many decades to centuries to die out.

    629:

    That was fascinating!

    Weird to see all the vague break room discussions that I've had, resulting in lots of slightly disconnected concepts all laid out neatly. With heaps of stuff I didn't know as well. Thanks!

    630:

    Ah that's a great description. I'm a non traumatised. Belief in a god is about the same to me as adult belief in Santa. (with added gun nuts).

    I'm having trouble with the general idea that you can characterise religion as a belief in something that you incorporate into your everyday life and which you recommend to others. That definition makes me a practicing, Michelin Road 5ist. I ride on them every day, and suggest to others that they do the same. Though I'm considering converting to the house of Michelin Road 6 tyres.

    I'm probably a lapsed minor cleric of bicycles. I'm no longer the shaved leg accolite that I was.

    I'm definitely a coffee worshipper. The blend I drink is called "daily ritual" and I practice the ritual 3 times a day, while facing North (my espresso machine faces south).

    I guess I'm as frothy as Greg is about religion, but about school. It doesn't feel like a religious experience. It just feels like something incredibly negative that everyone seems to accept as the natural order of things (like stroads).

    631:

    624 - Perhaps you should look up the definition of blasphemy ? Or at least stop throwing the word around in a way that shows you don't know what it means?
    Oh and while you're at it stop conflating leaders of some branches of religion with the entire bodies of Christianity and Islam.

    627 - The "BMW MAXI Countryman", which is somewhat bigger than an old Austin Maxi, and wider and taller than an Opel/Vauxhall Omega?

    628 - And how about "don't cares" who really just want all proselyting theists (include self-described atheists here) to be quiet unless explicitly asked about the subject?

    632:

    I guess there's a different approach that might work for you, Greg. What do you do on a Sunday morning? I used to sleep in, these days mostly my wife and I go for a walk, like we do every morning. It's winter here, so we usually get going before dawn, though on a Sunday we might sleep in a little. A lot of people find considerable value in their church, which they go to mostly to engage with their community. If I believed in one of the various Christian versions of God, I would most likely go to one of those. It's a valuable social network and it predates many. Sure there are other things you might do where you meet with people who share an interest, but none quite so specific about offering communion (in a broader than religious sense) and especially pastoral care.

    People do in fact seem to put forward various atheist groups, or things like the Humanist Society as alternatives. Aldous Huxley thought that function was so important he simply recast it as a secular activity in Brave New World. In Huxley's world I could probably see myself as a community songster, though I doubt I'd make it to Cantebury.

    The next question along those lines is what do you think about Bach? Or, since it's digging pretty deep into a world of things that I personally find incredibly valuable, how about Verdi (thinking of the Requiem here) or Mozart, or Mendelssohn or Handel? I should just ask about how you get along with devotional music in general, since that's the point. I don't believe in God, but I find the sincere yearning in something like Jesu Joy of Man's Desiring intensely moving, and I think it has a value that the rejection of some of the conceptual basis behind it does nothing at all to detract. I dunno, maybe you think it does. Maybe you think it's like Leni Riefenstahl's Nazi films. Thing is, of the filmmakers in the 40s and 50s, all of them learned stuff from Riefenstahl. It isn't even necessarily individual brilliance that's independent of the unpleasant ideological associations, it's that being placed in the development of the discipline historically and being the first to do stuff means you influence how it unfolds. And that's what I was getting at when I mentioned above that you can't honestly untangle so much of Western thought from the era where all serious thinking had a theological context, simple because everyone started with certain assumptions in mind.

    633:

    H
    Utter, total bollocks ...
    You are not looking at the whole picture & also virtually parrotting the US white-wing christians (!)
    ...quoting, again:
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    Marxism is a religion.

    I think that Bertrand Russell was the first to note this, but the behaviour of both individual Marxists, and marxist organisations, and the construction of their internal power organisation and hierarchies conforms to classical religious behaviour. For example: people read a set number of Trotsky’s saying each day, just as if he were Jesus, or Mahmud. Or appeal to “the historical inevitability of the revolution” etc …
    I may add that it ( marxism/communism ) passes ALL the tests, if one cares to list them:
    1] It has a “holy” book or books.
    2] The words in those books may not be questioned, even when demonstrated proven wrong.
    3] It has sub-divisions and sects and “heresy”, and heretics, who, in Trevor-Ropers phrase are “even wronger” than unbelievers.
    4] Those sects fight each other, either by open warfare and/or in internal pogroms.
    5] It is structurally based on the RC church, complete with its own “holy office”
    6] Which leads to the gulag – the communist equivalent of the churches years of penitence and autos-de-fé
    7] Thousands if not millions are killed in the name of the “holy cause” to bring about a supposed millennium
    8] It persecutes all the competing religions
    9] In some sects it even denies Evolution by Natural Selection (look up Trofim Lysenko)
    P.S. After all: Thomas Paine said, “Persecution is not an original feature in any religion; but it is always the strongly marked feature of all religions established by law.”

    Leading up to this was the following introduction ...

    All religions are blackmail, and are based on fear and superstition.
    Religion offers a supposed comfort-blanket, or carrot to the believers, and waves a stick at the unbelievers.
    “Do as we say, and you’ll go to heaven, don’t do as we say, and you’ll go to hell.” What is conveniently left out here is the unspoken threat, which is made manifest in those societies which are theocracies: “If you don’t do as we say, we can make sure you go to hell really painfully, and quickly.” Or, of course in those societies where religious intimidation and terrorism of this nature is allowed to go unchecked by the civil authorities, either because of their own accommodations with the intimidators, or for temporary political gain. This is a serious mistake, because the religious leaders will always want “more”, and use increased physical and rhetorical blackmail to further their cause. The label of “blasphemy” is often used here, as a tool of intimidation.
    Thus all “priests” are liars and/or blackmailers. They may not be deliberate liars, but nonetheless, they are telling untrue fairy-stories.

    Fear of exclusion from the community, in one form or another, is a standard part of the power-structure of any religion or cult. Excommunication, anathema, banishment, exile, fatwah, etc, … Fear of entry being refused in "the next world", or "the community of saints", or "the party". Fear of real physical punishment by the "secular arm", the NKVD, the Saudi religious police, or whomsoever the current set of spiritual thought police happen to be.
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    Erwin
    I am not traumatised - I'm angry that I and many others were subjected to this lying shit & so many swallowed it ( I nearly did)
    Like Brexit, I really don't like con-men trying it on & nearly succeeding.
    But, in this case, it took me something like 30 years between rejecting the Evangelical bollocks I was being fed, to the long & slow realisation, that: - THEY ARE ALL LIKE THAT.

    Damian
    Stay in bed / go to the allotment / do some cooking preparation / read / log in to this blog ... etc.

    634:

    I would not call myself traumatised, but I was significantly harmed by (Christian) religious fanatics as a child. However, I am intelligent enough to know that their teaching is not supported by the Gospels nor held by all Christians.

    635:

    My description of Dawkins is the High Priest of the Orthodox Church of Evolution. Darwin would be no more amused by Dawkins than Mahommed would be about Wahhabism or Jesus (of the Gospels) would be about the fundamentalist churches.

    636:

    EC
    I strongly suggest you re-read the "Recital" ...
    It's full of threats & menaces about what happens to people who don't listen to the words of the "messenger".
    In fact, the whole thing is horribly, eerily reminiscent of certain ranting NI preachers we are all familiar with (!)

    637:

    Charlie Stross @436

    650K years? That's a hell of a lot of time. But it's not enough to change the Milky Way in any material way. We expect to collide with the nearest dwarf galaxy again in about a billion years (though most dwarfs, like the LMC and SMC have too high a velocity to stick around), and the collision with Andromeda is about 5 billion years out.

    On speciation within hominids, we have the last of H erectus dying out in Java about 100K years ago, H Heidelbergensis about 30K years ago in Spain. And what of the other great apes? 40K years should be enough to see Pongo Pongo acquire H Sap sap levels of cognition, if they don't have it already, and then perhaps language and culture. Or Pan Trog? Or Loxodonta?

    What can we say about humans? I reckon 300 years is about the top end of what we can understand. My ancestor in 1722 (probably called George Lister and probably from Lavenham, Suffolk) would be utterly unable to cope with the wealth even ordinary people have today. Even the rural gentry of 1722 would be unable to process our wealth. Both would be unable to process the social situation as well. Now think of George's ancestor in 1422 in Lavenham (England's premium wool town), who'd have been a chemical engineer or Lye-ster: someone who dunked wool in stale human urine. Can we get into his world? Can we even speak his language? Or his ancestor in 1122, labouring under a Norman yolk. What about his ancestor in 822 AD? The Viking threat is now well underway, though it is intermittent. How about 522? The English invasion of East Anglia must have already begun, since the population pressure occurred in Holland after 461AD, when Attila the Hun over-wintered in Luxembourg.

    So, I don't think there's a chance in hell that any of our heirs -- if we have any -- will be relatable over that period of time. Nor is there much chance of them being strictly biological -- a machine sybiote, if not a complete machine, seems much more plausible, especially if you want them gallivanting around a hostile universe. So squishy-gene stuff? Not so much. Machine self-reengineering? Why not? Machine sex? Probably considered a bit deviant by other machines, why take a chance when you can re-design yourself with a specific object in mind? And, if you do want to use squishy stuff, might it not be LIFE 2.0, i.e. the use of bio-engineering, redesigning it all from the ground up?

    Then there's all this wormhole stuff. As usual, where do we get all this negative energy from? How do we prevent time travel? Some constraints worth thinking about: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/research-centres-and-groups/theoretical-physics/msc/dissertations/2020/Catalina-Miritescu-Dissertation.pdf

    Questions: Before we get to religion, what are we doing philosophically? Is your universe deterministic or stochastic? How do you answer the questions implicit in the various Wigner's friends experiments? To me the whole thing looks to be another manifestation of Lamport's Buridan's Ass paper -- the inability to have a continuous function from the reals to a binary decision (or from Hilbert space to a 0/1 wave collapse).

    How about socio-economic stuff? You'll have noted that in the world today the richer we are, the fewer children we have. Indeed, most first world countries have a population level that is in decline (Zeihan). You'll also note that our rich today do not seem to want a large staff of flunkies -- even if they can afford them. Privacy seems to be preferred to obsequious service and the possibility of tabloid betrayal. So, why do we need slaves or servants?

    Have fun with the theology stuff, by the way!

    638:

    Greg,

    I'd be intrigued to find out your position on Chimp Religion?

    There's apparently one troop out in the wild that's been observed using rocks at one particular tree for reasons that no one can fathom. The current hypothesis is that it is "ritual": the usual euphemism for religion in anthropology.

    639:

    Interesting discussion. Too many threads to respond fully, but a few observations.

    Positivism was an attempt to distinguish between ideas supported by objective evidence and those without evidence. Kuhn and Popper between them modified it somewhat but, when it comes down to it, the antipositivists really want nothing more than an excuse to hang on to the blue comfort blanket of the religion their parents chose for them and see the shadows of meaning it casts in their experience of the world, rather than accepting that, one day, you are dead and its all over for your consciousness.

    And its very interesting how Dawkins gets decried. I don't recall him getting any films or books banned, nor people killed for disagreeing with him, but he is vilified for questioning the belief systems of the intolerant. A brief thought experiment: go to the centre of Cambridge and shout "The God Delusion is bollocks.". Now try standing on the street in Islamabad and shouting "The Quran is bollocks.". And then remember that Islamabad is the capital of a country with nukes.

    And yes, I agree Marxism and Communism in Cambodia and Russia had all the hallmarks of a religion including the authoritarian edge.

    640:

    labouring under a Norman yolk

    I don't think that's egg-zactly what you meant to write… :-)

    641:

    Well. I'd be careful. I have met decent Christians. But...would characterize Christianity, on the whole, as evil, at least at the present time.

    @Greg Angry, after being fed bollocks... With great respect, you care too much to fit into my non-traumatized classifier. Perhaps apathetic and non-apathetic atheists?

    642:

    I think the reason Dawkins (and Greg, for that matter) are getting vilified is the tacit assumption that ALL RELIGION IS CHRISTIANITY, OR SOMETHING LIKE IT, that, as a non-believer, you know everything there is to know about Christianity, and therefore you can criticize all religions.

    The point the scholars make, and I make, is that the JCI branch of religion may be numerically superior under some criteria. But in terms of the full spectrum of practices that might fall under religion, it's a tiny, tiny, tiny part of the spectrum.

    That failure to even understand the diversity of the spectrum of religious practice is why Dawkins' views deserve to be forgotten. He's a diversity scientist, for freak's sake, that's what evolution is about. He'd check himself into a long-term care facility before he made analogous arguments about organisms. So why should we listen to him try to turn his unexamined prejudices into science?

    And let's get back to that "numerically superior under some criteria" sentence in the second paragraph. If we look at what people practice religiously, rather than what label they claim for themselves, I suspect the number of hypocritical members of Christianity especially is rather enormous. I also suspect the same holds true for Islam, Judaism, and Buddhism too.

    As for Marxism, Leninism, Maoism, Ju-Che and the lot being religions? Yes and no. Authoritarianism doesn't define what a religion is, or Presbyterians, Quakers, and Baptists (among many others) wouldn't be practicing a religion. I agree that all these systems can fall under the category of religions for some of their practitioners (which does make them religions), but I'd also point out that many of the people who apparently practice hypocritically as a survival strategy.

    643:

    *Utter, total bollocks ... You are not looking at the whole picture & also virtually parrotting the US white-wing christians (!) ...quoting, again: *

    Thank you for agreeing with me that: a) religion can be completely atheist, and b) that modern religion consists of systems that use the tools of religion for a variety of uses, those tools being things that help with long-term retention of information in the absence of writing. You enumerated some of those tools rather nicely.

    Unfortunately, that also means that atheists can be as murderous as anyone else, and that atheism is a religion too.

    644:
    I don't think that's egg-zactly what you meant to write… :-)

    Perhaps I was just having a yolk with you all?

    I'll get my coat..

    645:

    I recently saw a lovely way of referring to such people: CHINOs. Christians In Name Only.*

    *I'm not Christian, but it's obvious even to an untutored person such as myself that these people are about as far from Christ as humanly possible.

    646:

    633 - Other than Inglundshire, which part of the UK has an Established Church of Religion?
    Which nation worships a political theory?

    638 - Interesting; I'd usually interpret "ritual" in archaeology as meaning "we don't actually know what they were doing of why". As an example, the Western Isles "jelly baby houses" (shaped like a number '8') were interpreted by archaeologists as having an outer "living chamber" and an inner "ritual chamber". Then someone in Lewis built a replica and discovered that the inner chamber was several degrees colder than the outer one or the environment: That's right folks, it's a larder and not a worship space.

    642 - That's fair, to the extent that an individual priest can make a real difference to a parish (either way). I won't name names or parishes, in order to protect the guilty.

    647:

    Which nation worships a political theory?

    Chunks of America appear to worship their Constitution, or at least the bits and interpretations that they favour, at least as fervently as they do their Scripture…

    Is it possible to disentangle religion from religious organizations, which may or may not be captured by authoritarians?

    Is it possible to treat what is believed separately from how fervently it is believed? I'm thinking of the many Road to Damascus conversions that happen, where having something to believe deeply in seems more important than exactly what is believed. Hoffer explored this, as did (on a science fictional/neurobiological level) Peter Watts.

    https://rifters.com/real/shorts/PeterWatts_Heathens.pdf

    648:

    Greg Tingey @ 624:

    Yeah, but my Jeep's a 2003 model. It wouldn't qualify for a 30 year grandfather rule, but it would for a 20 year one.

    649:

    I'd usually interpret "ritual" in archaeology as meaning "we don't actually know what they were doing of why".

    So did my archaeology professor, way back in uni. He was very scathing about some of the examples he showed us…

    650:

    Perhaps I was just having a yolk with you all?

    I think I shell leave that one alone…

    651:

    So did my archaeology professor, way back in uni. He was very scathing about some of the examples he showed us…

    Yeah. I like to make half-jokes about fairies and gremlins causing random unexplainable stuff. People get quite huffy until I explain that I act kindly towards the Good Folk in situations where I have so little actual information about what's going on that fairies or gremlins could be as good an explanation as any science-y bullshit I came up with. It's about reminding myself to be open about ignorance, not to promote anything fringe-y.

    And yes, I'm deliberately violating a strong norm of science, that it's more important to bullshit a plausible explanation than to admit one doesn't know.This is even though theoretically science works better when people are humble about their knowledge. Just being a contrarian as usual.

    652:

    Thought y'all might enjoy this: The Theft of the Commons

    Certainly did. Thank you!

    Be nice if OGH and other SFF authors started tossing commons into space operas and other works more often.

    653:

    Don't know how many will like this, but here's an interesting pre-print on Quantifying the Human Cost of Global Warming

    Getting back to JBS' post, Earth's atmosphere is a commons. While it is possible to claim ownership to an airspace, it's impossible to claim ownership to a given body of atmosphere within that space, because of course it moves. Water, including groundwater, behaves similarly, which is why commons were (and are) sometimes used to manage bodies of water. While I don't think it's possible politically, one theoretical way to deal with climate change is to manage the atmosphere as a global commons and to punish those who abuse their rights to it. The political impossibility obviously comes from how difficult it is for the poor to punish the rich. However, it's an interesting thought, because atmosphere, more than most other things, resists being broken up and owned in large chunks.

    655:

    Heteromeles, you seem to be making overly-broad assumptions about what a religion is. I cannot see that disbelief in any gods can represent as a religion. It may be similar but, it's not the same.

    The issue, I think, is that you're coming at this from a Christian perspective, and that's the issue. Scholars of religion routinely grapple with "what is a religion?" as part of their work. This is quite similar to martial arts scholars grappling with "What is a martial art?" It's generally not about optimally killing people, as almost all martial arts we know about were invented well after firearms became normal in their society of origin, and most of any martial artists' work is spent on training, demonstrations, contests, and shows, rather than injuring or killing people.

    Once you dive in to the literature on religions around the world, the question of "what is a religion" expands enormously. Answers generally converge on something around "religion is whatever one does religiously" and a use of a set of innate human skills which probably originally evolved to help us remember critical information over the long term, especially in circumstances that don't often occur (birth, adolescence, procreation, death, disasters, famines, etc.), or where the best answer isn't obvious (e.g. most land management and ownership issues, staying healthy at different phases in life, being a "good person"). Since there's no one way to be human, there's enormous diversity of possible approaches that can meet the rubric of religion.

    Another way to look at it is you make the following assumption: cats are typical animals. You're not a cat, of course, but you know cats pretty well from the outside. You therefore assume that all animals are essentially weird cats, that they behave like cats do, and that optimal environmental management comes from managing all animals as if they were cats.

    There are some fairly obvious problems with this model.

    One is that, by numeric sample, the average animal on this planet is an insect, and mammals, while ecologically important, numerically are a rounding error. Assuming ants and termites are just weird cats leads to all sorts of problems.

    A second problem is that most life is actually in the ocean, probably on the abyssal plain, so the most common type of animal may be a jellyfish or copepod. And assuming a jellyfish is just a weird kind of cat is problematic, especially considering how cats feel about water.

    The third problem, of course, is that humans are one of the most common animals on the planet at this point. While we are not cats, we're rather closer to cats than are ants and jellyfish. But most of us react rather badly to being told that, compared to all the animals on this planet, we're closer to the cats we chose as a norm than is just about every other animal species.

    656:

    "I recently saw a lovely way of referring to such people: CHINOs. Christians In Name Only.*"

    Clever and something like it is needed, but it wouldn't fly in most of the Americas.

    "Chino" is Spanish for "Chinese", both as a general adjective and a specific reference to a person. In addition to the hispanophone countries, it would be understood that way in a fair part of the US. Using it as a derogatory term doesn't seem like a good idea.

    So needs some work, but a catchy way of designating faux-Christians is a good idea.

    657:

    "religion is whatever one does religiously"

    Since we're doing this, Yaweh have mercy upon us, I'll note an observation from my past existence, which was spent for 25ish years in the US national security apparatus:

    Secrecy is a religious obligation that may not be questioned, nor may its association with security be questioned. Secrecy is accepted without question as equivalent to security.

    Real-world examples to the contrary should not be pointed out, as to do so would not be career-enhancing. Think of a Catholic priest questioning the virgin birth.

    658:

    "XINO" works, drawing on the long tradition of letting Latin X stand in for Greek Χ.

    659:

    Dave Lester
    Fascinating ... Pan troglodytes is uplifiting itself to sentience & mythology?
    - Paging David Brin ....

    Grent
    As most of you have worked out, I'm a "positivist" - anyone making actual religious claims without any backing evidence will be mocked, ridiculed & told to shove it where the sun don't shine.
    but he is vilified for questioning the belief systems of the intolerant. - precisely - & do they shriek, poor delicate little things!

    Erwin
    I would have got over it long since ... EXCEPT ... I am reminded more than once a week, by THESE ARSEHOLES just how vile & brain-rotting christianity can be & all-too-often actually is. They set up shop in an almost-abandoned chapel on the corner of our street & promptly got themselves thoroughly hated by everyone ... They are now starting to return, having set up a bigger shop elsewhere but are now trawling in even more gullibles for their lies.

    H
    Half correct. But, in Europe & the Eurocentric world, christianity, islam & communism are the "Big Three" & judging by reports from India, people like the BJP are travelling the same road. Totally wrong in that: atheists can be as murderous as anyone else, and that atheism is a religion too NO IT BLOODY IS NOT.

    paws
    SCOTLAND - the "CoS" is "Presbyterian & the "official" Scottish religion ...

    660:

    Clever and something like it is needed, but it wouldn't fly in most of the Americas.

    Actually it would. Of course it would be used by two people facing each other talking about each other. But aside from that ....

    661:

    649 - Cheers; I do know some other archaeologists who see the base point that saying "ritual this", "ritual that" is lazy thinking.

    656 - From para 7 "considering how cats feel about water.". Which is? When answer, bear in mind that some species of cat, such as the Turkish Van, actually like swimming.

    657 - And, of course, in some English speaking nations, chinos are a style of trousers.

    662:

    A serious foodie writes: you mean that a pantry ISN'T a place of worship?

    663:

    40K years should be enough to see Pongo Pongo acquire H Sap sap levels of cognition, if they don't have it already, and then perhaps language and culture. Or Pan Trog? Or Loxodonta?

    Only if increased intelligence favors their reproduction. Which won't be the case if H Sap sap decide that exceptionally intelligent apes and elephants are dangerous pests, and kill them preferentially.

    Which very likely would be the case. Pan Trog is already well adapted to its niche; increased intelligence would not help it much in its rainforest. It could however be very useful to navigate and exploit the adjacent human world... and humans would not take kindly to it.

    If I had to pick the species most likely to develop language and culture, I would pick corvids. They already use their very high (by non-human standards) intelligence to exploit the human world, but are not big enough or dangerous enough for humans to feel threatened. And raccoons are the second most likely.

    664:

    I refer to them as Christian Satanists, since by their own definitions, they do the opposite of what they say Jesus preached.

    I call them that, to distinguish them from the Church of Satan, who are very good folks, and are fighting for the separation of Church and State.

    665:

    I'm sorry, but the "what is religion expands enormously" starts to fit into my aphorism that subject matter experts, and especially self-proclaimed ones, think that they are therefore experts on all subjects.

    Quick - if I always wait in line to pay for something in a store or restaurant, is that "religious"? If I always use a fork to eat my pasta (unless it's Asian, in which case I'll use chopsticks), is that religious?

    Nope.

    And both the USSR and China were the last places that Marx expected the Revolution - he assumed it would be in already industrialized countries with democratic traditions. In both countries, as well as France after the Terror, what they got was a New, Improved Emperor, now with added goodness (tm).

    That Lenin's and Mao's followers turned it into a religion, based on your theology, rather than praxis, is not their fault.

    666:

    I'd also note that "Dunning-Kruger" effect, while a catchy idea, seems to be as questionable as most other catchy ideas to come out of psychiatry and related fields. You want to believe it, though, right? So we can use it as shorthand to insult people.

    Ultimately, "Dunning-Kruger" is just a fancy term for people who are too ignorant to know they are ignorant. If you never met people like that, you must not get out much.

    667:

    "What is a martial art?

    Absolutely it's not, and never has been, about killing people. Originally (back in the Renaissance when the term first appears in English) it was about not being killed by people who want you dead. Walking away uninjured is the important bit, not what happens to the other guy. In many cases you actually just want to hurt him enough that he stops attacking you, killing him would get you into much worse legal trouble even if it was in self defence.

    Fairly early it also became about putting on a good show for the audience of practice fights. Part of the difficulty in reconstructing how people actually fought with swords etc. is identifying which techniques in the surviving manuals are intended for a fight in earnest and which are just showmanship. There's one sequence in the C15th Lecküchner manual that has a bit where your two assistants step out of the crowd holding a sack open between them for you to throw your opponent into, which is obviously for show, but there are others in other manuals that require the co-operation of your opponent to work much as modern film fight scenes usually do.

    Over time the real fight bits have gradually been dropped from most styles as they were no longer so necessary, and many/most "Martial Arts" as practiced now are of limited use (or become an actual liability) in a situation where the other guy is happy to do real damage to you as they focus on the looking good aspect. Teachers want to recruit students, who want to do cool looking things, the market pushes them that way. Really effective techniques tend to be quite boring.

    In order to be able to use the techniques competitively in play fights, rules have evolved about what you can and can't do to mitigate the harm caused, with varying degrees of effectiveness. Many styles are now hugely diverged from their roots - eg modern fencing techniques which would not work at all with a real sword. If you are trained to fight within rules that say there are some things you can't do, you are not prepared for the other guy to do those things.

    Conversely, I knew an ex forces guy who was looking to learn some unarmed techniques that didn't cause permanant damage because everything he'd learned was for use in a war situation where the concept of reasonable force didn't apply, and he was worried that if he got into a fight while out around town he might be in trouble for what the techniques he knew would do.

    668:

    “And, of course, in some English speaking nations, chinos are a style of trousers.” Which also works, since they are essentially a wrapper for an arsehole that shouldn’t be seen in public

    669:

    "Of course it would be used by two people facing each other talking about each other. But aside from that ."

    No lo comprendo. Expliquelo, por favor.

    670:

    Ultimately, "Dunning-Kruger" is just a fancy term for people who are too ignorant to know they are ignorant. If you never met people like that, you must not get out much.

    Or indeed had the experience of studying something in serious detail - like masters degree or training with a real expert. Finding whole areas of ignorance you were too ignorant to know you didn’t know. And coming out of it vastly more knowledgeable yet less confident to give strong opinions than when you began.

    Never trust the confident generalist. You want to be specialist in something. It’s when you hear others opining confidently and so so wrongly about your area that you realise the nonsense you must spout about others’ fields of expertise. (Not that it’s not fun to speculate and debate, but tread lightly)

    671:

    Kardashev's comment (#658) is important. If some assumption is dogma, and challenging it is treated as heresy, you have at least arguably become a religion.

    My criterion is a little stronger: it is the belief in some Power, Good, 'Truth' or other abstraction, where challenging it is heresy, that defines a religion. Capitalism counts, as does 'representative democracy', militant atheism of the Dawkins/Tingey variety, and Einstein's formula for General Relativity.

    672:

    I can assure you that it's common among specialists who have advanced education (or even are experts) in their area. Being sure that received wisdom if correct or thinking that you know all that there is to be known is regrettably frequent.

    673:

    Alas true. “I know lots about this. So I must also be good at that”.

    I maintain Dunning-Kruger is like the patsy at the poker table. If it doesn’t ring true to you, you want to look closely at yourself. It’s probably describing you.

    674:

    Never trust the confident generalist. You want to be specialist in something. It’s when you hear others opining confidently and so so wrongly about your area that you realise the nonsense you must spout about others’ fields of expertise. (Not that it’s not fun to speculate and debate, but tread lightly)

    Yup. I'll note that I'm not a religious studies scholar. I do, however, have more than a passing familiarity with at least four religions, and I keep diving into the anthropological literature to see if there's anything I can find that helps with the environmental issues I deal with as a job. After all, they didn't have the problems we're having. Is it all down to population density and resource use, or have we got blind spots that keep channeling us to make decisions that are problematic in the long run? So far as I can tell, it's both.

    One of the big blind spots is religion. Those who think that the concept of religion is an artifact of post-medieval Christianity are in part correct. It's quite common to read testimony from first nations people saying the equivalent of "we didn't have a religion until the missionaries came. Everything was sacred to us." Since Christians have a weird idea of what sacred means, relative what most other cultures seem to be trying to tell us, it's probably more useful to translate "everything was sacred" as a way of saying that what I keep calling the tools of religion were what those people used to preserve and teach most life skills. That is, until the missionaries came along and told them, with varying levels of coercion, that what they were doing was wrong and they needed to do what they were being told by the missionaries.

    Another common blind spot is the idea that "atheism" (the belief that there is no category of being cognate with "gods" evident in objective reality) is not only not a religion, but is unique to western civilization. If you go through what I wrote above, you'll note at least four examples (Taoism, Buddhism, the PNG example of the Telefolmin, Maoism, and Leninism) of systems you're all comfortable calling religion, that are atheistic or not god-focused. I can keep going in that vein for quite a while, because it appears to be fairly normal for non-western peoples to agree that their "gods" are not objectively real. They're merely "characters whose stories we tell."

    And it is a blind spot, because everyone who thinks that religions can't be atheistic skips all the counterexamples, and goes right on repeating their idea that atheism has nothing to do with religion. Greg's providing a wonderful example of that, by saying that communism is a religion, communists massacred a lot of people on ideological grounds, communism is officially atheist, but no atheist has ever participated in an ideologically-driven massacre. I guess communists aren't a subclass of atheists then?

    675:

    Massive overconfidence about topics one knows nothing about is an all too common feature of far too many conversations.

    Anyone who does any kind of higher education level study gets a few layers of their particular onion off, then realizes that this damned onion is infinite, I'm already crying and I know much less than I thought I did. It's one of the reasons I have completed 1/3 of at least 7 novels - I get to a certain point, then learn something new and feel like I have to start all over again. It is a rare skill to be able to continually learn while also being able to focus on completing the damn thing you started.

    I work in housing and homelessness, have done for about 25 years. Every day I deal with walking examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect, whose solutions to complex, multifarious wicked problems almost always boil down to 'ignore anything that doesn't fit my preconceived assumptions'. Ignore is one or two short steps away from suppress, and another quick hop gets you to kill.

    676:

    "What is a martial art? Absolutely it's not, and never has been, about killing people.

    While I mostly agree with you, I've had a little bit of fun with this. It's useful to think of probably three axes: violence/nonviolence, performance, and group size, and plotting different training systems out. The violence spectrum ranges from zero (do nothing) to nuclear war, with hand-to-hand combat and increasingly deadly weapons in the middle. Nonviolence might be its own axis, but most people don't think in four dimensions, so there's Gandhi on the nonviolent extreme, nuclear war on the violent extreme, and doing nothing in the middle.

    Group size ranges from individuals to armies. Most martial arts are individual or at most small group tactics or performances (not counting the giant shaolin classes in China). From there, we rapidly get into military operations, which is where group violence gets taught. Often, someone who's very good at being part of, say, a destroyer's crew will have little competence in hand-to-hand, because they don't need it.

    Performance is useful as a separate axis, because violence tends to be performative--it's often not about leaving a blood slick behind, it's about winning the fight, as you correctly note. With martial arts, there's a tendency for them to become more performative over time, probably because the supply of students who need to learn to maim and kill is rather small, compared with the number who want a cool workout with a uniform. And of course nonviolence is all about performance, and especially about large-group performance. That's where it gets its power.

    Getting back to what you wrote, you can have a lot of fun plotting martial arts in this space. Most are about non-lethal, single person violence and small group non-lethal performances and public competitions. In my experience, this is true in various Chinese arts, western fencing, and capoeira, you're saying it's true in HEMA, and I've certainly seen demonstrations from elsewhere. That's the part of the spectrum we normally call martial arts, but the boundaries are unclear. I've run across two nonviolent self defense systems, and there's the whole question of where to draw the line between martial arts studies and military science. Since a number of militaries have incorporated less lethal and hand-to-hand training into their repertoires, it's a blurred boundary indeed.

    677:

    40K years should be enough to see Pongo Pongo acquire H Sap sap levels of cognition, if they don't have it already, and then perhaps language and culture. Or Pan Trog? Or Loxodonta?

    Our clade finally separated from Pan something like five million years ago, so 40,000 years more won't do it. Ditto most other animals, which have been around for quite awhile (elephants, cetaceans, cephalopods, parrots and other birds).

    I suspect Richard Wrangham got it right (Catching Fire: How Cooking Made Us Human) in that the essential cheat that cooking does is it pre-digests food, meaning we can get away with allocating fewer resources to having big jaws and big guts, and put more resources into having kids and having bigger brains. Guts are fairly energy intensive, after all, and most of the wild foods chimps eat are inedible to humans, according to the primatologists (like Wrangham) who have sampled them.

    If I had to guess, that's what is stopping animals from becoming intelligent in human ways, not lack of time.

    678:

    650k years. (shakes head) I put a ridiculous amount of thought into 11,000 Years, and even so, took ideas from people like Stapledon and Clarke. And had people from close to now to discover it all, and others (in Purity) who refused a lot. Even so, I had a lot of trouble trying to imagine not only what they'd be like, but what would motivate them, because both the Enhanced and the Beyonders have motivations that I could only barely imagine the edges of.

    I'm sure that if a) we manage to avoid WWIII (with nukes) and b) we get offplanet, we will change in ways we can't imagine now. What would someone from, say, 1400 think of us?

    Right now, I've just finished the first revision of a story set in my universe about 250-300 years from now, and I'm mostly staying outside of the "Inner Worlds", because they're heading towards "I have no clue".

    679:

    663 - Well, yes and no. I see your point, but having a place to store food that reduces spoilage is more important than ritual.

    666 - Well, I have never (had) to learn to use chopsticks effectively. I prefer to use a fork (and a spoon for long forms such as, say, linguine) of pasta anyway.

    669 - "an arsehole that shouldn’t be seen in public". Isn't that a Gammon?

    672 Para 2 - And if the expert is an acknowledged World class master of the subject? Stephen Hawking did once say that he thought he may have found a hole in Einsteinian Relativity big enough to fly a warp drive starship through.

    675 - Perhaps Greg could point out the "God analogue" in, say, Marxism, for those of us who think that Karl Marx was a politico-economic theorist and not a God or even a prophet?

    680:

    "XINO" works, drawing on the long tradition of letting Latin X stand in for Greek Χ."

    Not bad. You could give X the kh pronunciation of chi, KHINO. That would be distinctive and, AFAIK, not be likely to have any unwanted connotations.

    681:

    "What is a martial art?"

    All boils down to keeping your spouse happy in the end, right? :-)

    682:

    As Ommelette said, to beat or not to beat, that's why they think Bacon wrote those plays. Nice fiind on the Watts.pdf link, by the way.

    683:

    "Never trust the confident generalist. You want to be specialist in something. "

    I agree, somewhat. My model is that you should be a specialist in something, just so that you know what being a specialist is like and requires. But you should also be to some extent a generalist, so that you know that there are lots of other important things that you should ask the appropriate specialists about.

    Think of a broad pond with deep wells in it. You're one of the wells, the pond is your broader environment.

    684:

    paws
    We used to have a cat, the late HEX(adecimal) who loved ice-skating(!)

    H @ 675
    Your argument is internally inconsistent even in that short piece
    - however - I will add an upvote for Catching Fire!
    The ancient Greeks were correct - Prometheus stole FIRE from the "gods" !!

    paws @ 680 (675)
    I can see that, so can you, but the "Marxists" regard him as the Prophet of a non-existent "god" whose words cannot be questioned.

    685:

    Hi,

    Sorry I've been away for so long. I've undergone a lot of life changes this past year. At any rate, let me bring up a point in regarding Putin which represents an outgrowth of the previous discussion on the utility of billionaires: a better metric of judging world leaders is their country's percentage of global GDP.

    Right now, the following countries have greater than 4% of global GDP: US (24%), EU (18%), China (18%), Japan (5%), Germany (5%), UK (4%), India (4%), and France (4%). Sanctioning any of these entities is a MAD-level global catastrophe. These countries collectively run the world economy (try to sanction India's IT sector). This is my opinion as to why India gets a pass on buying Russian crude.

    The second level of countries are those with GDP above 1%. Trying to sanction these countries is the economic equivalent of WWI attrition warfare. We're finding out what this means.

    686:

    Well, they got the entire Orion's Arm website into 10,000 years, so 11,000 is just another number up. Heh heh.

    The "useful" thing is that a lot of things more-or-less randomize over 10,000 years of history (not counting relativistic time dilation and other games). It looks like human languages more-or-less randomize in that time, barring a small core vocabulary (ma, da/pa, mama/amma papa/appa, etc.) that's baby talk and more-or-less universal. Similarly, it looks like most stuff decays in the several thousand-year range, at least in the terrestrial biosphere, so if you're on Earth 100,000 years from now and humans are still around, probably the major thing that will be around from our era will be remnants from our open pit mines and rubble field in places like Las Vegas where no one's stupid enough to build another city anyway.

    So basically, if you go forward far enough, you've got a blank slate to play with. All you have to do is assume it's not 650,000 years of progress or even cycles, it's 650,000 years of mess around and find out, over and over and over again, overwriting the record with noise. Your major limit is how fast your starships can go, and if you're clever, you don't write that number down.

    687:

    Nice fiind on the Watts.pdf link, by the way.

    Not difficult. He has his entire backlist available:

    https://rifters.com/real/shorts.htm

    Well worth reading. Slowly, in some cases, because Watts is a bit like Bacon — he writes like he has to carve every word into granite, so makes each one count, and because he's also playing with ideas it's easy to miss things.

    688:

    barring a small core vocabulary (ma, da/pa, mama/amma papa/appa, etc.) that's baby talk and more-or-less universal

    In Mandarin, father is baba, while popo (婆婆) is one of the grandparents.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/10/words-mom-dad-similar-languages/409810/

    689:

    I grew up in USSR, and I definitely can point to an imaginary entity which was for all practical purposes God of Communism. They called it "historical necessity". Everything happened according to historical necessity, and inevitably it will lead to Communism. I think it was something Lenin invented, not Marx.

    690:

    I grew up in USSR, and I definitely can point to an imaginary entity which was for all practical purposes God of Communism. They called it "historical necessity". Everything happened according to historical necessity, and inevitably it will lead to Communism. I think it was something Lenin invented, not Marx.

    I almost feel like saying the formulaic "thank you for your service" that we're supposed to say to our military veterans here. I appreciate your comments.

    This idea comes from Tyson Yunkaporta's Sand Talk which is an aboriginal with a PhD giving an aboriginal read on modern Australian culture that's deliberately provocative (fair warning). That said, he asserts that rituals that make their way into Australian aboriginal culture are community creations, not the brilliant ideas of a single founder.

    I suspect there's an important idea here. Jesus created the basics of Christianity, but the 10,000 or whatever independent churches* in the world now have, through community dynamics, completely reshaped and diversified Jesus' teachings, to the extent that they even follow them. Ditto Adam Smith's Invisible Hand, which seems to be the capitalist alternative to historical necessity. Ditto capitalist concepts of what money is (most recently, with cryptocurrency). Ditto the progress, consumerism, and growth within capitalism.

    A superficial googling seems to show that Marx came up with the idea of historical necessity. However, I'll bet that what you dealt with was a post-Marx community creation, as much as anything else. I'll also admit that one of my myriad failings as a scholar is that I don't parse Marxist philosophy as competently as some might want, so I'm not going to make a hash out of figuring out how it got from Marx to you.

    *seriously, that's one group's count for the global diversity of Christianity. While I don't trust it, I do suspect that the number of independent churches is far larger than most of us realize.

    691:

    "that's one group's count for the global diversity of Christianity. While I don't trust it, I do suspect that the number of independent churches is far larger than most of us realize."

    I grew up in a town that was infested with Christians of all stripes. I'd say 10,000 is a massive underestimation.

    My smallish town/city of 12000 had churches ranging from Catholic through the 'United Church' (bland with a side order of genocidal residential schools) all the way to the weird <12 person church my friend grew up in that met in living rooms and was quite clear that the rest of them were going to hell.

    Between the ages of about 10-12 my parents had the notion that maybe we should go to church, and we went to a variety of them looking for the right kind of community. I suspect the 'Bring the kids to Jesus' experiment ended around the time the snow melted and the golf course opened.

    692:

    Hmmm. Thinking about the "Supernatural" elements of capitalism, which I'll call gods for short.

    There's the old, primal god Alienation, the process by which the valueless chaos of nature is transformed into valuable, lawful capital.

    There's Money, of course, analogous to Inari Okami of Shinto but definitely more diverse.

    There's Progress, the process by which hard work and technological change will make everybody well off, then rich.

    There's Growth, the inherent principle of market-based capitalism.

    There's Consumption, which, like the various fire gods, embodies the vital principle that, like flames, we are what we consume, and that this is a better way for us to define ourselves than by race, gender, nationality, creed, or anything else.

    Then there are Markets, which are deliberately created lesser deities that serve these great gods. Capitalism, like Taoism and Shinto, has processes for creating the new gods it needs.

    And there are the destructive gods Recession, Depression, and Collapse, which are the dark side of eternal growth.

    And there are others, too.

    This isn't a Poul Anderson-style pastiche mocking religious studies and anthropology. I'm trying to get at the way some other cultures see their gods. They're personifications of powerful, often polymorphic and ambiguous, forces shaping a society.

    Because we work within a Christian milieu, we tend to think of God as an objective reality (or deny this notion as an atheist). Thus, we tend to get weirded out by exercises like this, see them as silly or useless, if not blasphemous. It's equally valid to work from a more Shintoist (or Taoist) perspective, or be Terry Pratchett and deliberately try to embody our gods, either by letting them possess us or by making shrines to them, and to ritualize our interactions with them, especially on a community level. After all, they're a little safer when our interactions are controlled. Black Friday Sales, anyone? Have the Shiny Fest of buying new tech?

    Are the Gods of Capitalism real in some subjective sense? You tell me. I'm not joking, this is more-or-less a Taoist style exercise. Instead of thinking about what gods arae, feel how you perceive something like Money in all Their forms. How is that experience similar and/or different from how you perceive the Christian God or, for that matter, Historical Necessity? This is, quite literally, how you experience the divine in everyday life. At least, once you step outside Christianity. But it's a religious experience.

    693:

    Meh. I’ve met the gods, and after some spirited discussion we concluded that the idea of me worshipping them was just too funny for words.

    694:

    If I had to guess, that's what is stopping animals from becoming intelligent in human ways, not lack of time.

    It seems to me that most animals in the wild, especially herbivores in the wild or not, spend most of their waking lives eating or looking for something to eat.

    695:

    at least in the terrestrial biosphere, so if you're on Earth 100,000 years from now and humans are still around, probably the major thing that will be around from our era will be remnants from our open pit mines and rubble field in places like Las Vegas where no one's stupid enough to build another city anyway.

    Well it could be on the edge or bottom of a big lake.

    100K years and Yellowstone may have gone off again. Which might re-arrange much of North America. At least the western half.

    696:

    all the way to the weird <12 person church my friend grew up in that met in living rooms and was quite clear that the rest of them were going to hell.

    Ah, home churches. Most split after they get to about 20 or 30 people. As that's big enough for them to develop more than one interpretation that is anathema to the others.

    There's a saying that most home churches are run by people who have a big issue with authorities. Except their own.

    697:

    I can assure you that it's common among specialists who have advanced education (or even are experts) in their area.

    I know multiple people who are afflicted by DK. They seem to come in two flavors.

    Some are very smart highly educated (with PHDs at times) who tend to conflate their opinions with facts on a regular basis. And when the run into a situation where it is obvious to them that their forcefully stated opinion is wrong, things can get strange in so many different ways.

    Then there are those who are at the other end of the education spectrum who get their knowledge from people they want to agree with. (I'm talking parroting their right wing / left wing news sources or similar.) They never feel they are wrong. Because what they espouse isn't original to them or even something they have thought through. So they totally ignore "facts" or events that contradict their beliefs. I have some relatives on this who are Trumpers to the end and want total free market laissez-faire capitalism and the drug companies to be controlled and government regulations out of our lives and ...

    698:

    GOING BACK to the original subject .....
    THIS
    Comments?
    My own take is that it's (just) plausibly deniable, but that "C" was/is so appalled by the vicious cruelty of Patel - that he let it be known privately.
    It's not quite "The King's Decision" level, but what does one do when openly cruel-&-fascist moves are made by a corrupt & incompetent "government"?
    Oh & "republicanism" doesn't cut it, either - see 6th January 2021 USA, or for that matter the entire 4 years of IQ45.

    699:

    685 clause 3 - I've never encountered Marxists who regard his works as "Holy writ".

    686 Para 2 - You've counted France and Germany both twice in that list.

    700:

    which I'll call gods for short

    I first read that last word as "sport", and it scanned well enough for me after a long couple of days.

    701:

    Re: 685, Greg's comments are 100% Dunning-Kruger at this stage. We probably need to change the subject before he makes any kind of sense again.

    702:

    Damian
    Erm, no.
    Though there are points of confusion, because people keep changing the definitions of what constitutes "religion" - which makes matters, um - "a little difficult".

    Regarding D-K generally - I fall into class 1 ( As per David L @ 698 ) - because, at least a couple of times, I've been brought up short by either "new" facts or new information, which I didn't know about, or fresh findings.
    Re-adjusting to "the new reality" ain't easy, but I hope I follow J M Keynes on this one.

    Note that this requires evidence - something that religions with "gods" seem remarkably thin on ......

    703:

    They're not changing - it's just that some people are committed to very specific narrow definitions and others are trying patiently to explain those definitions are inadequate.

    What about that Bach guy then?

    704:

    "Anyone who does any kind of higher education level study gets a few layers of their particular onion off, then realizes that this damned onion is infinite,"

    I wish :-( I was referring to PhDs, and even eminent professors, from personal experience.

    The good ones accept the onion - in many cases, if you think you understand the subject, you haven't started to - and, yes, that's the opinion of world experts. Immunology and genetic expression being fairly extreme examples.

    705:

    Totally divergent, past comment 300 but has anyone noticed what the Chinese are attempting to achieve in space these days?

    A Hubble-equivalent space observatory, the Xuntian, planned for launch in 2023, with a 2 metre mirror and modern 21st century imaging sensors (a total of 2.5 billion pixels in the main imaging array).

    Multiple well-funded private launcher businesses, several of them working on reusable first stage vehicles, some with methane-oxygen motors in development. The two state-owned launcher builders are also working on first stage reusability of some of the existing Long March series of launch vehicles.

    Expansion of the Chinese space station planned for this year, with more manned flights to exchange crews too.

    Plans for a Jupiter probe mission, more Chang'e lunar lander/return missions etc.

    There's a good Youtube channel, Dongfang Hour which is a talking-head show with a lot of detail about what's going on in the Chinese space business including the various Chinese space startups which don't get much press here in the West. Caveat -- the show is professional enough in a nerdy way that I'd not be surprised if it's connected or supported in some way by the Chinese government.

    706:

    Hawkins was an outrageous self-publicist, among other faults. There are two known major flaws in general relativity and, if I recall, what he found was just an example of one of them.

    707:

    Why I typed Hawkins, I do not know. As you said, Hawking.

    708:

    Never trust the confident generalist.

    Circling neatly around to one of the other strange attractors in these here comments: the UK, since 2010, has been run for all but a couple of years by a clique of confident generalists -- Conservative MPs who were educated at Eton then came up in politics via the Oxford Union and mostly studied PPE at Oxford -- Politics, Philosophy, and Economics, a grab-back non-specialist degree in confident bullshittery. Not just the Prime Minister (Johnson is a variant, with a degree in Classics) but a bunch of the ministers all had a PPE background prior to Brexit (the post-2019 Johnson government is notorious for including party hacks from the extreme right whose sole qualification for office is being loyal to the concept of Brexit even when it's glaringly stupid to do so).

    The cult of leadership by rich, self-confident amateurs is what got the UK into its current long-term decline.

    709:

    I suspect C is very aware of his image; in opposing the Rwanda deportations he's siding with the majority of the population who either DGAF about immigration or actively despise the Home Office. It's a policy fabricated entirely to placate the Conservative party's far right insurgency, rather than to have mass appeal to the public.

    Unfortunately Johnson's tenuous grip on office now means that the far right can hold him to ransom, so this policy will go ahead, until it becomes too embarrassing (or until there's a change of government).

    710:

    They're not changing - it's just that some people are committed to very specific narrow definitions and others are trying patiently to explain those definitions are inadequate.

    Yep. And I really need to thank Greg for being an excellent foil in this.

    I'd also gently point out that the other target in this little exercise is OGH, who will be rolling up a bunch of his own religions in a novel, hopefully soon.

    711:

    Totally divergent, past comment 300 but has anyone noticed what the Chinese are attempting to achieve in space these days?

    I had not noticed, thanks!

    Meanwhile, we've got the US, EU, Russia, Musk, and Bezos. And the USSF. Sigh.

    712:

    The cult of leadership by rich, self-confident amateurs is what got the UK into its current long-term decline.

    Now tie these things to this.

    https://today.duke.edu/2022/03/lead-exposure-last-century-shrunk-iq-scores-half-americans

    The biggest impact is thought to be on those currently of the age of 50 to mid 60s. Give or take.

    713:

    The cult of leadership by rich, self-confident amateurs is what got the UK into its current long-term decline.

    "Poor President Bush. He was born on third base and thought he hit a triple."

    To be fair to many other politicians, democratic politics in general is the art of solving problems you're not trained to deal with. If you're smart, you hire people who do understand the problems better than you do, and who can explain them to you, while you specialize in creating the coalitions that will get some form of the solutions through the processes you're part of, and hopefully into reality.

    That's if you're reasonably honest. Politics can also be about amassing power by systematically disempowering others and forcing them to give you a cut if they want to get anything done.

    In both cases, I'm not sure what university degree gets you the education to actually do either job. The people who get US political science degrees and go to work in politicians' offices seem to enjoy politics (unlike someone like me), so even if they don't know what they're doing, they're generally not battling the urge to walk away and never look back.

    714:

    Yes. But by all accounts, he is a fairly decent person, and prepared to stand up for his principles. We can compare that with our elected government - and you wonder why I am a monarchist (*)?

    (*) THIS monarchy - you can take the Saudi one and [obscenities deleted].

    715:

    H @ 711
    Yes, BUT .....
    If one sticks to the "narrow" definitions, we at least have some sort of grip on what we are discussing.
    If you go for the "broader" non-definitions or definitions with fuzzy edges, then the subject becomes horribly intractable - I think it's a variation on the "spherical cow" problem?
    ... Actually @ 714 you ALMOST hit the nail on the head & then missed, probably because you are on the W coast of the USA.
    Not too long ago, the smarmy little Gove ( A senior guvmint minister ) famously said: "We've had enough of experts", which undermined the whole thing - the exact opposite of Churchill, incidentally, who wanted experts "on tap" ( but not "on top ) ...

    Charlie @ 710
    OR when there is a bloody tragedy, such as a very messy suicide, which I think all too likely.
    Let's face it, if nazi-Patel's policy had been in effect in 1949, my neighbour's grandfather would not have made it to Walthamstow, or if in 1685, the Huguenots would not have come to England, to everyone's' loss.
    OR the other "beneficial immigrations" of, say, the Jews through C19 { HELLO CHARLIE! } or the "Ugandan Asians" about 50 years ago & ....

    716:

    H @ 711 Yes, BUT .....If one sticks to the "narrow" definitions, we at least have some sort of grip on what we are discussing. If you go for the "broader" non-definitions or definitions with fuzzy edges, then the subject becomes horribly intractable - I think it's a variation on the "spherical cow" problem?

    Not really. That's the point of the cat joke in 656. A narrow definition of religion a) misses most diversity, b) sets up for a truly vicious level of persecution, because it assumes that most religions are something they wildly, wildly, are not, and c) accomplishes only the trivial "benefit" of allowing you to claim you're outside religion, when in fact, your beliefs and practices are well within the western mainstream of beliefs. This may seem trite, but it's the problem in b) that really inspires me to engage. I don't like to be on the receiving end of bigotry.

    I'm not asking you to change your beliefs about Christianity or Islam. I'm asking you to realize that what you experience is a lived religion, and to acknowledge that quite a few other people, who practice formal religions, have basically the same experiences that you do, even if they don't call themselves atheists. Do them the basic courtesy of not lumping them in with the people you despise. That's all.

    As for 714, I've actually dealt with city councilmembers, county supervisors, state assemblymembers, and staff for state senators, federal congressmembers, and US senators. Of both parties. It's part of my job, and that's where I'm coming from when I talk about politicians. Some are creeps, most are hardworking, and none are professional experts on a majority of what they have to deal with, even though many come from skilled professions (civil engineer, pediatrician, lots of lawyers, an economist, military captain...). They're up front about it, too, when you talk to them. The ones who studied political science and worked up through the staff system to become electeds are no better or worse than the outsiders.

    And before you snark about West Coast, remember that California's the home of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. Also realize that I had a meeting at this upstanding representative's office. Were it not for LA and the Bay Area, California would be closer to Texas politically.

    717:

    @709

    [ "Circling neatly around to one of the other strange attractors in these here comments: the UK, since 2010, has been run for all but a couple of years by a clique of confident generalists -- Conservative MPs who were educated at Eton then came up in politics via the Oxford Union and mostly studied PPE at Oxford -- Politics, Philosophy, and Economics, a grab-back non-specialist degree in confident bullshittery." ]

    Indeed. As detailed in the recently published Chums: How a Tiny Caste of Oxford Tories Took Over the U.K., (April - 2022) by Simon Kuper, covering what is shared by all the sorts such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Cameron, Gove, Cummings, starting with Eton and Oxford.

    718:

    A narrow definition of the sort Greg seems to favour would exclude Buddhism, and very probably Sikhism, the Quakers and most forms of animism.

    I gave a reasonably precise (wide) definition in #672; expecting a more precise one for such a messy area is unreasonable. Perhaps Greg would like to provide a definition which includes those examples in the previous paragraph.

    719:

    There's a saying that most home churches are run by people who have a big issue with authorities. Except their own.

    In my experience, most people who "have a problem with authority" (in quotations because they may or may not say it explicitly), make the same exception. Including, now that I think of it, all of Heinlein's characters.

    720:

    If you think a few suicides will disturb Patel's sleep an iota, or concern the Home Office, you haven't been following the news.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/19/charities-raise-alarm-suicides-young-asylum-seekers-uk

    And that excludes the deported ones who are killed in the country they are deported to.

    721:

    Concerning the discussion currently around the positivity or negativity of holding religious beliefs:

    For me personally the only religions I've encountered that make sense are the Afro / Caribbean ones, particularly those accreted around origin Lucumi of Nigeria's Yoruba centering on Oyo, often roughly rounded off in the New World as "Santería". Its systems and practices engage with satisfaction all the varieties of people in a community, at whatever level of formally trained intellectual sophistication, to the intuitive needs of the worst well-off in a community. It also works to create larger families, that aren't dependent on 'blood' relationship. In Cuba this religion with so many transmitted, surviving African customs, mapped beautifully onto Marxism's emphasis on public, communal good and sharing.

    722:

    H
    I think we are going to have to agree that our definitions of "religion" are profoundly different.
    You appear to be calling all cultural practices - religions or religious, whereas, I do not.
    ...
    Which leads straight into EC's comment @ 719 (!)
    Buddhism is the difficult one, Sikhism is clearly a religion - I thought the Society of Friends were actually christian ( Note the absence of a Capital, there )

    EC @ 721
    What might do it is that the Border Farce staff & others are getting close to the point of mutiny (!)
    Not renowned as the nicest people to know, they are getting desperate at what they are being asked/ordered to do, as well as the now-public knowledge that Patel refuses to meet them & just goes on issuing orders.
    Details HERE

    723:

    Ditto Adam Smith's Invisible Hand, which seems to be the capitalist alternative to historical necessity.

    Hmph. I've most often encountered it as an incantation by someone who obviously hasn't read Smith (where it's clearly used as a metaphor). A secular equivalent of 'god will provide'.

    Which is to say that, for many adherents, I think capitalism is a religion not an economic theory. A folk religion in the same sense as many (most?) naive christians have, where half-remembered stories from sunday school are mined for convenient rationalizations to justify why what they want is good and people who oppose them are bad.

    724:

    On the other hand, in Cuba's Santería, due to cash and money nearly obliterated on the island for nearly two generations -- people literally didn't see or handle money at all, except the Cuban peso, which was worth very little on the world money market and so wasn't employed, couldn't be, to exchange for goods and services elsewhere, except, mostly Vietnam and China and Russia -- and Russia was gone as of 1990 -- though now it's back thanx to the fascists running things here) during the Special Period, when the state began to allow US dollars to legally used for goods and services, well ---

    TAKE DEEP BREATH AND GET TO IT!

    --- all those words prefacing, to say, in Cuba cash money isn't a religion. However it is a magical substance.

    After the Special Period, during which Cubans got used to money, the overt magical awe wasn't quite so demonstrated. But again, now, another generation is growing up without money, but unlike the earlier ones, they don't have it, but they actually need it.

    725:

    The cult of leadership by rich, self-confident amateurs is what got the UK into its current long-term decline.

    In Canadian politics, most of the Conservative politicians are professional politicians. Not all, but a significant number of them (including the likely leader of the federal Conservatives, as well as the last Conservative Prime Minister).

    I find it interesting that a populist-leaning party which scorns 'political elites' is run by men (and it's mostly men) who've been in politics since university, while being willing to throw shade at Liberal and NDP politicians who had previous non-political careers as being unready to govern — and their populist base doesn't notice the contradiction!

    726:

    Santeria's an interesting case...

    Up front, I'll admit that I know more about Candomble (via a short time in Capoeira) than I do about Santeria.

    While I completely agree with you about the values it nurtures at its best, what I found is that it's not for everyone. For me, the drumming that was obviously the center of other peoples' lives wasn't talking to me at the level it was talking to them. I was a bit sad about that, actually. They were having a great experience, while I was just keeping a beat and helping give them a ride.

    Anyway, that's one reason I'm strongly in favor of religious and spiritual diversity. Not everyone responds to any one system. Greg's far from the only person I've run into who's "blind" in the religious spectrum, too.

    And, unfortunately, every single system I've run across has both saint and sinner-equivalents well-embedded in it. Much as it sucks, that part seems unavoidable.

    727:

    One identifiable sign of a religion is the in-group and out-group -- saints are like Us, the in-group and sinners are Them, the out-group. It's telling that the Christian-derived word for expelling a member of a congregation is excommunication, the action of moving that person's status from Us to Them.

    728:

    I think I missed something back there. Was there a suggestion that Greg, Dawkins and others cannot comment on religion because they have not studied, in depth, every known religion or belief system.

    By that logic no one can comment on anything and it is akin to declaring that you cannot discuss football if you didn't see Enfield versus Wycombe Wanderers in the 1969 Ishmian league cup final and noted the impressive performance of John Connell.

    The fact that someone from the west may not have a detailed knowledge of belief systems such as those approximated to by "God-in-everything" or "everything-is-sacred", doesn't mean they cannot comment on those belief systems that do require a God/Goddess/Gods.

    I'm fine with religious diversity (I have Christians, Jews, pagans, atheists and wiccans among my friends) but, intrinsically, their religious stances are no more important than their favourite musicians. Its just a lifestyle choice. I judge them by their actions towards others. They are nice people and treat others kindly.

    Religious spectrum? Sheesh. Can we have the psychopathy spectrum or the gullibility spectrum too? The Krays were nice guys and merely psychodiverse and we should not condemn them for being their full selves.

    729:

    In-group vs. out-group is just humans being humans. Religion is one popular category, along with skin color, language, class, and favorite sports team.

    730:

    @727

    You will not be a target audience then for our film, Tierra Sagrada. All sacred drumming, and singing, nearly two hours worth. No talking, not even subtitles -- maybe about 30 words all together.

    731:

    I'm "troutwaxer" at a mail service owned by google, so put me on your mailing list - I'm always happy to see a film about sacred drumming!

    732:

    H
    Not Even Wrong
    I am far from blind in what YOU call "the religious spectrum" ....
    What I really can't stand are organised theistic religions with the power-&-cruelty apparat that goes with them ... or hasn't that penetrated, yet?

    SEE ALSO Nojay's excellent & pithy comment @ 728.

    Grant
    No you didn't miss a thing, but it's a standard LYING get-out used by the religious ( my sense of the word ) to attempt to shut down & silence criticism & ridicule.

    733:

    Oh sure, but the in-group vs. out-group is usually a highly visible marker in religion. I'm sure there are religions that don't do this, Wicca is one example (I think), another is Shinto but the Big Three Abrahamic religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam have believers who are communists and non-believers who are kept at arm's length (at best) by the believers.

    This is generalising big-time of course, there are other flags such as regular communal worship-slash-brainwashing to reinforce the in-group vs. out-group status of the believers. I love, love, LOVE the Americanism "unchurched" used by Evangelicals to refer to out-group people (this can include Catholics, of course).

    734:

    Kardashev @ 657:

    So maybe CRINOS?

    735:

    "Christian-derived word for expelling a member of a congregation is excommunication, the action of moving that person's status from Us to Them."

    Not just Christian. See Cherem/חרם: https://www.biblestudytools.com/lexicons/hebrew/nas/cherem.html

    In earlier times, such change of status was likely to involve getting stoned to death. Things subsequently lightened up, so Spinoza got off relatively easily.

    736:

    "So maybe CRINOS?"

    Getting there. Needs to be short, memorable, preferably associable with a known word. RINO is perfect for its purpose.

    CRINO reminds me of Crinoids, which would be good if they were better known.

    https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discovering-geology/fossils-and-geological-time/crinoids/

    737:

    Heteromeles @ 691:

    The problem with the formulaic "thank you for your service" is that it IS formulaic. Has no more meaning than "Have a nice day".

    738:

    David L @ 695:

    I was sort of thinking about that today. I realized my little dog spends about 23 hours a day taking a nap. I'm kind of jealous.

    739:

    I really need to thank Greg for being an excellent foil in this

    Well yes, I appreciate that too and also that you're being enormously more patient than I find I'm able to at the moment. I'm vaguely aware I need to work on that sort of patience, not just (or even especially) on this topic of course. I've had good use of the "it's not my job to convince anyone to change their mind, I'm no good at it anyway" pattern, outside of work anyway, but really there's a sort of moral duty to try, and at least to put some effort into getting better at it. Otherwise we're in the Chicken Little school of climate despair and it's a self-defeating spiral.

    Right now I find I don't have the time I need to get any trace of snark out of my comments, so I'm mostly not commenting. I should apologise for some of the comments where I've left the snark in, and sometimes I think Greg is pretty patient too. But also mistaken on some important things, which I find matters to me.

    740:

    The most common version of Christians In Name Only is, AFAIK...CINO.

    It's in the same camp as RINOs (Republican INOs) and Godzilla In Name Only which for all I know started the acronym.

    741:

    For vets from my brothers' generation (I was from the tail end of a large family) I use "Thanks for dining on shit-on-a-shingle for us. Brave man!" which is guaranteed to get the point across in a non-saccharin way.

    For my generation, I refer to 'Veggie omelet MREs' or 'Chicken a la king'.

    A popular Baen author, sure to raise blood pressure if named, did digress in one of his zombie adventures into the realm of other nation's prepackaged military meals. For those of y'all who served your non-US nations, what were the best and the worst of your dinner-in-a-bag cuisine?

    742:

    Robert Prior @ 726:

    Seems like here in the U.S. a significant number of "conservative politicians" are former Trots.

    743:

    You will not be a target audience then for our film, Tierra Sagrada. All sacred drumming, and singing, nearly two hours worth. No talking, not even subtitles -- maybe about 30 words all together.

    Sounds like a blast regardless. I hope you have a hit on your hands!

    744:

    I see that Het mentioned "CINO" as I was comment-editing, for "Catholic/Christian In Name Only".
    The similarity to RINO could make it useful in US political discourse.
    (It is also occasionally used for Communist in Name Only, but that would mainly be an irrelevant curiosity in the US.)

    I have been tempted to engage with Greg and Grant on their atheism but am fairly sure that it is not actually falsifiable for either of them. They'll protest otherwise, of course.
    [What are "events", "causations", "natural causes", and "random occurrences"? Serious question; without definitions, that argument collapses into mush in the second sentence. e.g., is radioactive decay entirely acausal?]
    Also, am not a monotheist, and while occasionally exposed to unprogrammed-meeting Quakerism as a kid (no creed FWIW), its main virtue was long stretches of silence/freedom from dialogue. (Also, peace/non-violence.)

    745:

    Kardashev @ 737:

    I guess "ASSHOLES" is probably not specific enough?

    746:

    kiloseven @ 742:

    I joined up before MREs. My first military culinary experience was C-rations ... when they still included a 4-pack of cigarettes. I don't really remember anything being especially odious from that era. I still have & occasionally use my P-38.

    First generation MREs had the infamous Pork Patty. I don't remember Chicken ala king in the first generation, but the one that came along later was actually pretty good.

    My biggest problem with military field rations is I can't eat chocolate; makes me sick.

    747:

    Seems like here in the U.S. a significant number of "conservative politicians" are former Trots.

    Shades of Hoffer's fanatics — the need for a belief being more important than the subject of that belief…

    748:

    There are, like nearly every other subject under the Sun, multiple posters on Youtube who taste-test various MRE offerings from all sorts of militaries. Some of the military ration packs are decades out of date, going back as far as the Korean War.

    I particularly like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ry4QBQejFU

    749:

    Well...

    I agree that a lot of neo-cons even in the Bush II White House were far left verging on communist in college (I had a roommate like that, went from Punk freshman to Republican staffer in five years).

    That said, it's the Grover Norquist "Government small enough to drown in a bathtub" and similar anarcho-authoritarian rhetoric that perhaps sucked them from far left around to far right. Steve Bannon still identifies himself as some sort of Leninist bent on bringing down the US government, and I think a fair number of GQP operatives have used their early left-wing training to justify working for the super-rich who are trying to hollow out any government regulation that controls them.

    I suppose it might be possible that their politics is shaped by what happened to Russia in the 1990s and beyond, and who came to power? That's somewhat more probable than there being a super-duper secret cabal intent on bringing the world under the heel of the super-rich, so that the super-rich can be eliminated to bring about the Worker's Paradise (/snark. Sorry).

    750:

    I love, love, LOVE the Americanism "unchurched" used by Evangelicals to refer to out-group people (this can include Catholics, of course).

    That's tame. The equivalent term Jehova's Witnesses use is "hellbound". Amish too sometimes.

    751:

    @732:

    Hmmm -- says there is no such thing .... ?????

    752:

    @732 --

    And now it says it did. So OK.

    753:

    BTW, Hetroetc. -- Santería is not a 'case' interesting or otherwise. It is a religion.

    That kind of comment again underlines that anything out of Africa is utterly dismissed as 'real' because 'below' Eurasian spiritual developments. Ignored all together most of time, and when not, dismissed as 'primitive' -- not real, not authentic, not not not -- US.

    754:

    Well, I could apologize for making an inadvertently offensive remark, but since I'm working on a book where every single protagonist is either black or American Indian, I'm going to ask you to check your own prejudices.

    I categorically DO NOT dismiss the spiritual practices of Africa or the African Diaspora as primitive, unreal, or unauthentic. Given the background that they arose in a time of slavery, when practitioners were forced to be superficially Christian, I also try to be sensitive to whether practitioners want their practice to be categorized as a religion or not. It's up to them, not to me.

    755:

    ~shakes head~

    756:

    While lead from petrol is the major pollution source quoted there are other considerations. Lead piping in the UK was a major source of increased blood lead, particularly in the north where the water is generally softer. But maybe another effect is seen in the USA. Eating meat from animals shot with lead bullets raises blood lead levels. Even more so if a shotgun pellet lodges in the intestines. In the UK it’s mostly the rich who eat game. Especially Old Etonians. In the USA it’s more common among the core republican and Trump supporter. Reloading your own ammunition is another source of increased lead in the blood. Indoor firing ranges are another. A colleague of mine when I worked in Leeds was a pistol shooter. He often acted a range officer and did his own reloads. Since the LGI pathology empire included a regional blood lead service the head of the lead lab asked to take some blood. He had lead poisoning. His blood was in great demand in the haematology lab because it enabled the staff to see basophillic stippling. He reduced the time spent in the range and was treated to reduce lead levels. Every time I see a pro Trump rally I wonder how much the IQ of the participants has been reduced by lead from bullets and shotgun pellets.

    757:

    Silver-Tounged SNARK department here:
    Tory Grandee: Chris Patten added: “We don’t have a Conservative government at all, but an English nationalist party which is populist, but – fatally – without being popular.” - yeah, right.
    And, from the Grauniad - note the alarmist right-wing fantasy-land bullshit in here? ... the Tory MP for Workington, told the Daily Mail that “lefties, Lords and luvvies” were showing they still did not accept the referendum result. The paper also claimed in an essay that a “Remainer counter revolution has begun” and replacing Johnson could lead to the reversal of Brexit.
    We should be so lucky.
    - Another gem: And nobody should ever see the words ‘Nadine Dorries’ and ‘culture secretary’ in the same sentence.”

    Bill Arnold
    is radioactive decay entirely acausal? - VERY GOOD Question. We don't know do we, because it's buried deep in the mazes of QM!

    JBS
    P-38?? One of these? - probably not!
    or
    One of these?

    758:

    There was a big push, including Government grants, in the UK around the 1980s to improve ventilation in indoor shooting ranges to reduce lead levels in the air. The ranges I frequented were upgraded -- one shooting range in the local police station had a blower so strong we were (jokingly) told to use high-velocity ammunition because otherwise the bullets we fired would not reach the targets otherwise.

    We used to have a lead-casting company in my home town when I was growing up, specialising in making decorative parts for coffins and funeral urns. AFAIK there were no regulations regarding emissions at that time. The business closed a long time ago, a quick look on Google Maps shows the site where it operated is now housing. God knows what the soil contamination levels are like today, I suspect no-one dared to investigate before building commenced.

    759:

    As long as we're signing up for mailing lists, count me in. It sounds like an interesting film.

    first dot last at gmail dot com

    Also, given I've had to dial up anti-spam (thanks to Republicans), an idea of what address to whitelist so any notifications don't end up in the hundreds of spam messages a day would be really useful.

    760:

    Yeah, I read that: Patten would know -- he came within spitting distance of becoming a Tory Prime Minister (if he hadn't been unseated in a surprise upset in 1992 he would have been Chancellor next, a normal stepping-stone to the party leadership).

    Yet he absolutely despises Johnson and his clique.

    This is why I keep trying to tell people, "this is not your daddy's Conservative Party". It's the National Front in Tory drag -- just as Richard Nixon would have been aghast at today's US Republican Party, so too would Thatcher have been appalled by Brexit. (The culture wars, not so much: she was always up for a good queer/immigrant bashing when it served her purposes.)

    761:

    It's one of these: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXuWNCkuHV4

    Which amused me when I first heard of these, there certainly wasn't any room for a pair of unnaturally aspirated V-1710 in that!

    762:

    Tim H
    Amusing, but a google search never mentioned CAN OPENERS!

    763:

    P-38 ... the second hit in Google.

    And a photo of a C-ration with some explanatory notes

    Beans with frankfurter chunks in tomato sauce.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-ration

    Consider that the MRE as bad as some of them were, was considered a substantial improvement over the C-ration.

    764:

    “Grover Norquist "Government small enough to drown in a bathtub” I always like to remember that Grover norquist is already small enough.

    765:

    " is radioactive decay entirely acausal"

    I suppose it depends on what you mean by "entirely". Leaving aside the cases where nuclear decay is clearly triggered by external forces, how would nuclear chaos leading to alpha or beta decay or spontaneous fission be distinguished from actual QM acausality? And how should QM acausality be interpreted in the circumstances of an atomic nucleus, deterministic chaos aside? Nobel Prizes await the answers.

    766:

    So, Kuper's Chums is going to be a television series:

    [ ".... Channel 4-backed Scottish indie Two Rivers Media have optioned the hit book about how a group of well-connected young Conservatives in the 1980s who all attended Oxford University including the current and two former Prime Ministers dramatically rose to dominate Britain. The book focuses on Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former leaders Theresa May and David Cameron, along with heavyweights including Michael Gove, George Osborne and Dominic Cummings, with Kuper, who also attended Oxford in the 1980s, exploring how this narrowest of talent pools has shaped the country over the past two decades. ...." ]

    767:

    Book Review of "The Dawn of Everything" - any opinions on it's worth as serious reading?

    Foxessa
    Surely there is a typo in that review?
    Should it not read: - " ...exploring how this narrowest of talentSHIT-pools has shaped the country over the past two decades. ...." ??

    768:

    From the link you provided:

    "Either it’s drawn by “neo-Hobbesians”, such as Pinker, who argue that modern civilisation, particularly after the Enlightenment, is a story of progress away from our nasty, brutish origins. Or by “neo-Rousseauians”, such as Diamond and Harari, who associate civilisational progress with the loss of freedom."

    I don't think that either of those statements is true (I've read both "Better Angels" and "Guns") except in the most simplistic way. Pinker's book was all about how rates of violence have declined in the 400 or so years since the Enlightenment, and Diamond was fully aware of how complex hunter-gatherer social norms could be. So take with a grain of salt?

    769:

    Is The Dawn of Everything worthwhile as serious reading?

    Well, it depends...

    If you're writing SFF and you want inspiration for worldbuilding, then absolutely it's worth reading. Note that this doesn't mean it's good history, it means that IMO it will get you to see things a bit differently, and that's a very good thing for SFF worldbuilding.

    Does it accomplish it's goal? No. They set out to try to explain why a) everything used to be really diverse back in the old days, b) we're stuck with a global civilization that might end up rendering us extinct, so c) how did we get stuck? The thing is, they heap scorn on any explanation that uses other sciences (they detest environmental determinism). They want it to be about culture, but by ignoring everything else, they ignore the possibility that many of the solutions they admire (like simply walking away from situations that suck) are a quite possible at low population densities but more-or-less impossible at the population densities we have now. And, unsurprisingly, they don't really succeed in their own terms in explaining how we got stuck.

    Did they get all their facts straight. No? I already fulminated about how stupid it is to compare northwestern California tribes like the Yurok with PNW nations like the Kwakiutl (using the old name, with apologies, because I think we here know it better even if the nation no longer uses it). The two groups are very different, but Graeber and Wenslow assert that the Californians formed their culture the way they did in direct reaction to what they didn't like about PNW cultures. This is hilarious, because there's no evidence the two groups ever came into contact, and there are quite a few peoples in between. Moreover, if you look at the references they cite, some of which I have on my shelves, the people who worked with the Californians pointed out that they are, in many ways, more similar to groups to their south, although they're also similar to groups to their north--in Oregon, not Canada.

    SO my bottom line is that it's a fun book, and I'm perfectly happy to swipe stuff from it for worldbuilding. Beyond that, not so much.

    770:

    Based on the Amazon sample (I won't buy something until I know it's a good investment of my time and money) they seem to be motivated primarily by strawmanning. Every scholar who came before them was blindly following a script ("primitives good; moderns bad") and only they see through to the obvious truth. Can't speak to their citation of evidence or the details of their reasoning, this is just a very quick overview from the first chapter.

    It seems unlikely that average intelligence varies very much across the last, say, 100k years. I find it much more likely that ancient societies filled their normative space with rules and beliefs that were every bit as complex as ours are, just with less benefit of high tech science. If we have in some sense "progressed" over the course of the last thousands of years, it will be because increasing economic inter-dependence has forced us to come up with more effective means of large scale conflict resolution. I find it easy to believe that both the rule of law has contributed to decreasing rates of violence, and that traditional cultures have had many unique insights that we would benefit from knowing more about. Both Pinker and Diamond seem compatible with this view, I can't say one way or the other about these guys.

    771:

    I've only got a bit into it (keep getting distracted by all the other books recommended here), but I liked the first part where they look at the rise of democratic ideas at the start of the enlightenment, often pushed through the rhetorical device of an 'American savage' presenting them — and ask why that couldn't actually be an indigenous person, given that some first nations were democratic and had representatives in Europe.

    Can't speak to the rest of the book, which I haven't read yet, but so far I'm liking it. Definitely makes a nice change from the Eurocentric history that's (still) seen in school textbooks.

    772:

    *Based on the Amazon sample (I won't buy something until I know it's a good investment of my time and money) they seem to be motivated primarily by strawmanning. Every scholar who came before them was blindly following a script ("primitives good; moderns bad") and only they see through to the obvious truth. Can't speak to their citation of evidence or the details of their reasoning, this is just a very quick overview from the first chapter. *

    Sorry, no, it's nothing like that simple. They do strongly believe that people are, were, and always have been people, both good and bad. For their many faults, they aren't strawmanning. Their point is that the normal view of history and archaeology is increasingly out of line with what actual archaeologists and historians have been finding for decades, so getting slapped around with the evidence and revising viewpoints is a good thing. And I think they got that right.

    Humans have demonstrably varied in intelligence for the last 100k years: human brains are substantially smaller now than they were with Cro-Magnon and Neanderthals.

    Did they have a lot of rules back then? Sure, but rules aren't about the presence or absence of science. Something like "how to properly hunt a mammoth so you don't get crushed" mattered more then than it does now. The thing they bring up, and it's corroborated by others, is that for most of our history, humans lived at very low population densities. Neanderthals probably never topped 100,000 alive at any point, and may not have topped 10,000 over much of their span. At those numbers, much of the rules we take for granted about living at high densities is simply irrelevant if not actively detrimental. And yes, you can have high density populations at very low tech levels.

    The parts you're missing that might be useful are numerous:

    Robert Prior's point about the Indian critique of white colonialism is spot on. There's always been this notion that western Democracy came from ancient Greece and Rome, which is bizarre, because it really caught fire after European powers came into contact with the Iroquois. But if we credit the First Nations with teaching us to be democratic, then what the hell are we doing annihilating them? That's what Graeber et al are pointing out, and that's important.*

    Another point is that old-school archaeology and anthropology have two faults that they've spent decades correcting. One is that (especially in archaeology), they focus on big, flashy, authoritarian systems, much like the ones they tended to work for. The other is that they were part of colonial and imperial missions, so they were strongly bound by the ideologies that support them, including racism, cultural progress, etm. Both sciences know about these problems better than we do, and have worked hard to try to present their realities in less biased ways. Graeber and Wengrow come out of the more modern tradition, and they're deliberately pointing out how this viewpoint conflicts with our normal stories about how the past happened and how we got to where we are now.

    As I pointed out above, I do think they didn't do a great job. That said, I think what they have to say is important.

    *For what it's worth, I don't think they're entirely correct. There are democratic and communitarian institutions in Europe, usually at the church, commons (see JBS' link at 612), and so forth. The term for President in the US came from presiding officers in church committees, after all. We don't call the POTUS the sachem. I suspect that Europeans seeing that America wasn't a mirror of Europe energized those who wanted to do things differently.

    773:

    A test that the 27th President reputedly failed by himself.

    774:

    Humans have demonstrably varied in intelligence for the last 100k years: human brains are substantially smaller now than they were with Cro-Magnon and Neanderthals.

    Brain size does not explicitly correlate with intelligence, depending on how you define that term. Whales have very big brains and are considered intelligent but not in the same way land-dwelling hominids are. Corvids have very small brains by comparison and express at least one form of intelligence, some ability to solve problems. Time-binding is another expression of intelligence, numeracy and relationships (are six stones greater, lesser or the same as eight stones?) and other expressions which better Minds than I have pondered on.

    Complexity of brain tissue may be more important in terms of intelligence levels than simple mass or volume, more specialised differentiation of sensory processing -- the volume of neural tissue in a dog's brain associated with processing data from its olfactory receptors is vastly greater, proportionally, than that in a human brain. That's a lot of neural tissue committed to "non-intelligent" sensory information processing. It's notable however that the dog breeds considered most intelligent such as Border collies are not noted for their exceptional noses.

    775:

    Well, like I said, I didn't read the whole thing, so my reading may have been too restricted. I was going off a perceived critique of Diamond and Pinker. It's good to know that they are in fact attacking the popular perception of the progress of history, in which case I presume they are not so much offering original insights of their own as they are summarizing the conclusions of their field over the last several decades? That can be useful, although to the extent that people think that it's just these two authors who came up with that approach it will continue to annoy me.

    I don't know of any evidence that brain anatomy has changed significantly in less than 150K years or so. 'Course we don't know very much because all we have are skulls, not brains. SFAIK, there are some anatomical differences that show up back then, but they are relatively minor compared to, say, the Neanderthals. It's unlikely that brain size corresponds directly to cognitive abilities anyway, at least with regards to small differences.

    I think higher population densities probably maps pretty well to economic complexity and interdependence. Increasing density would be one factor motivating the development of more sophisticated forms of social control, with concomitant changes in cultural narratives. Most humans have suffered from in-group bias to some extent, and so have a need to see their own community as the best thing ever, but it is probably true that forms of regulation and control have developed incrementally over time, and that Europe had an edge in that for a few centuries during which our own cultural narratives become frozen in place. People who strive to think about things more objectively should see a bigger picture than that, so narrative puncturing popular science can serve a useful role. One hundred thousand years ago, they didn't need complex forms of social control, but they were still extremely bright, so their cultural narratives were very likely as complex as our are, just about different things.

    I studied archaeology for awhile many decades ago, before I had settled on a major. Back then, the textbooks seemed to be striving very hard to reverse the old school approach, although in those days the tendency was to idealize indigenous people a little too much--to the point that I remember my instructor didn't believe any pre-historic society engaged in organized violence. I hope that we can all arrive at a more balanced view--ancient people weren't worse than us, nor were they demonstrably better than us, they were just these guys, you know?

    Maybe someone will do a better job.

    776:

    Greg Tingly @768 -- maybe it's just the title that's misunderstood -- at least here in the USA, 'chum' is gross guts and yuck used to attract certain kinds of fish. Ha! Which certainly describes that pack of chums.

    777:

    'chum' is gross guts and yuck

    Which also describes what happened to many of the Grimsby Chums in WWI…

    778:

    Brain size does not explicitly correlate with intelligence, depending on how you define that term.

    Thank you for taking the bait! I agree with your examples, but unfortunately, Neanderthal and Cro Magnon brains were proportionally larger than those of modern people.

    I'll trot out a couple of reasons, either or both of which might be relevant.

    The first is the human self-domestication hypothesis, which states that, like foxes in London and elsewhere, some humans self-domesticated, and, as with so many other domesticated species (dogs, horses, cattle, etc.), the domesticated morph overwhelmed the wild morph. One of the osteological hallmarks of domestication is reduced relative brain size...

    The second is one reason I got cross with Foxessa over her accusation: primitive means first, not worst.

    Here's a survival problem: let me plunk you and a dozen family members (including kids) down naked in Ice Age Europe on the edge of the tundra. How do you survive? IT'S NOT SIMPLE. You've got a bunch of intractable problems that have to be solved every day, just to get fed:

    --You're limited to what you can carry, and that includes carrying infants. This radically limits your tool-kit, so, like primitive people everywhere, you've got to be able to make tools and clothing with whatever plants, animals, fungi, and rocks you find, and you're mostly using stuff and disposing of it, rather than carrying it with you. The only saving grace is that stone tools last a very long time, so you can leave them lying around or cached and come back for them later. If you can remember where you left them.

    --Your climate is radically unstable, like California or Australia but worse. What this means, for the uninitiated, is that food supplies vary wildly between years. In California, every few years the local Kumeyaay might have had a bumper crop of acorns, getting all the carbs they needed for a year in three weeks, if they could store the acorns. Or they'd go somewhere else and get pine nuts. Or lily bulbs. Or they'd go to live with the Yuma and grow maize in the winter. Or head to the coast to fish and scavenge any reasonably fresh whale that washed up. Or, fairly often, they'd deal with a decade of drought where nothing much was available and they ate yellowjacket larvae in season (we're in such a drought now). Or they'd deal with an ARKStorm that dumped a meter of rain in a month and flooded everything, followed by a year or five of drought. Ice Age Europe was apparently at least this unpredictable, if not more so.

    To cope with this unpredicable homeland, you have to remember the solutions that worked last time something happened, even though it might have been before your lifetime. You've also got to be able to plan moves over hundreds to thousands of kilometers to find the resources you hope will be available.

    --If you had any sense, you managed any landscape you could manage with controlled fires, to promote hunting and gathering spots. This is the classic Aboriginal strategy, but many people did it, including apparently the Neanderthals. The downside to managing land is that you've got to get to the area and manage it regularly, or it rewilds and you lose your resource. And you have to remember how and when to manage it. And where your estate is, among all your wanderings.

    Note how much brain-work is involved? Can you remember how to walk over thousands of miles, where a good flint deposit was, where you cached something years ago? But primitive people routinely did this stuff, and we moderns cannot. One key information management strategy they employed is what I call the tools of religion. They're simply the tools for making information memorable so that the information is remembered, recalled systematically (as ritual tied to time and/or location), and passed down regularly and without error (sacred stories which had to be learned by rote, rather than ephemeral gossip), mnemonic talismans, and so forth.

    Yes, I'm cheating here, because people with modern brain sizes also have demonstrably lived this way. But climates have been less variable for the last 8,000 or so years than they were during the ice ages, and that suggests that local climates are more predictable now than they were then. I'd argue that it's possible that ice aged peoples were, indeed, smarter than we are now, because having huge brains increases fitness in a highly unpredictable wilderness.

    And again, either or both of these stories could be true, but in both cases, humans would thought differently, and possibly had better memories, in the distant past than they do now.

    779:

    Greg Tingly @768 -- maybe it's just the title that's misunderstood -- at least here in the USA, 'chum' is gross guts and yuck used to attract certain kinds of fish. Ha! Which certainly describes that pack of chums.

    At first I wondered if some devious joke might be involved.

    In checking the etymology: chum was Oxford slang for roommate, purportedly derived from chamberfellow...somehow.

    The idea of chum as fish-bait (e.g. chumming for sharks, chum salmon) purportedly derived from a Scottish term for food. Although, when I tried an online Scots dictionary, "chum" was "roommate" again.

    IF these etymologies are true, I'd suspect some low-minded teenboy joking was involved, especially among Aristocratic lads who lived on Scottish estates.

    Alas for this story, "chumming" as the term for that messy fishing technique apparently comes into English from the Powhatan language.

    So a good story spoiled? Hard to say. "Chum" apparently first appears in English in the 17th Century, and Powhatan was a Virginian language that the English would have encountered around the time students started rooming with chums in Oxford. So who knows?

    780:

    You're telling an interesting story, Het, but the empirical evidence is ambiguous. Brain size doesn't correlate closely to cognitive ability within our species currently, and I can't think of any reason it would have been more sensitive in the past. Also I don't think the brain size regression goes back 100K years.

    Regardless of that, the important point is to communicate clearly to people that we really aren't any smarter than our ancestors going back tens of thousands of years, because that undermines the narrative of constant upward progress, culminating in us. Social progress is real, we benefit from it, but it isn't inevitable nor is it a correlate of Euro-centric civilization (despite the fact that Europe had an advantage in economic complexity for awhile). What we want people to believe in is a story about global human progress that results from diversity filtered through necessity, because that corresponds to the truth.

    781:

    Greg@768 asks "Book Review of "The Dawn of Everything" - any opinions on it's worth as serious reading? "

    If by serious you mean a tough slog, it's serious. Not boring or tedious, just a challenging read, I've had it checked out from the library for 6 weeks and renewed it again till July 1, must not have been anyone else waiting for it. Not even half through, just got to the section on so called Protestant foragers of California who used money for exchanges of private property, including land, with goals of amassing wealth, even to the point of following frugal lifestyles to save up, with a strong emphasis on self reliance, and yet didn't raise crops or livestock.

    Unlike a lot of other books, its themes lurks behind my conscious thoughts and pop out occasionally demanding attention for mental review, like for example I'm sitting in a lounger in the yard and start comparing my leisure to the leisure supposedly enjoyed for hundreds of millennia by foraging ancestors, thinking sure, they might have been suspicious of the regimented schedule that crop tending requires, if it was anything less than a life or death decision.

    I must be a Hobbesian at heart, though, because I'm still strongly persuaded by Pinker and Diamond's emphasis on the immense improvement brought to personal safety and security by the existence of state power, anything less and it's just highschool with knives and spears, and no teachers to break up fights. Nonstop gang rumbles over "he gave me a dirty look", in other words.

    782:

    I think it's overwhelmingly likely that the Powhatan word and the English word are the same purely through coincidence. "Chamberfellow" turns into "chum" pretty readily if you abbreviate it to the first syllable and talk with your mouth full. But over here nobody fishes like that (wrong sort of fish), so with the lack of any local referent to hang it onto the knowledge that some people in America do fish like that would have been very slow to cross the ocean and then distribute itself, and the knowledge of the word those people use for it would have been even slower and less well distributed. I'd reckon that even now a great many people would not understand or be slow to grasp that usage without plenty of context, and would be likely to interpret a connection between a fishing trip and "chumming" as meaning that the main purpose of the trip was socialising rather than catching fish.

    783:

    Regardless of that, the important point is to communicate clearly to people that we really aren't any smarter than our ancestors going back tens of thousands of years, because that undermines the narrative of constant upward progress, culminating in us. Social progress is real, we benefit from it, but it isn't inevitable nor is it a correlate of Euro-centric civilization (despite the fact that Europe had an advantage in economic complexity for awhile). What we want people to believe in is a story about global human progress that results from diversity filtered through necessity, because that corresponds to the truth.

    That I completely agree with!

    784:

    But over here nobody fishes like that (wrong sort of fish)

    Well, if you believe Wikipedia's entry on chumming: "In Australia and New Zealand, chum is referred to as burley,[6] berley or berleying.[7] In the United Kingdom, it is also known as rubby dubby (West Country and Yorkshire),[8] shirvey or chirvey (Guernsey, Channel Islands),[citation needed] and bait balls.[citation needed] Chumming is a common practice seen as effective by fishermen all over the world, typically in open oceans.[9] Multiple forms of chum are available and used by anglers. Bunker consists of fish parts with a fish-enticing aroma. Stink bait contains oily fish parts and blood that releases the scent of dead fish into the water.[5]"

    I left the references in to show the level of "ummm..." currently involved. Let me know if any of those terms get attract a memory.

    Still, you're probably right. Sigh, another scurrilous derivation ashed by contact with prosaic reality.

    785:

    I'm still just a bit over halfway through it too, having taken several breaks to read other things (including OGH's last release, which tells you I've been at it for a few months).

    H's summary is good. The authors do a lot to point out what should be obvious but gets short shrift: that civilisation or at least human society doesn't have an inevitable teleology of any sort, whether that is upward or downward (I think the "downward teleology" people are missed a bit in this discussion... they are mostly theologians and those influenced by Judea-Christian-Muslim thinking about the Fall). That while so many of the questions we pose start with one as an assumption and we need to dig deeper to understand how to ask better questions. That most forms of social organisation that we can possibly think of have been tried somewhere and some concepts that we think are just recent ideas (like egalitarianism) appear to have been tried very successfully, over timeframes that dwarf the timeframes we're used to thinking in terms of. The main message is that people have been thinking about this stuff for as long as there have been groups of people, and they were certainly at least as smart as we are.

    The message that progress is not inevitable doesn't say that progress is not possible, but it does show how valuable it is, and that it is worth defending.

    786:

    Is the problem bad enough to be worth the risk?

    ISTM that human political systems tend to be at best meta-stable. Shove them a bit too far off their central position and they tend to collapse into a very different form, often not at all what those pushing on the system desired. The current British system has been relatively stable through a large number of changes. Is it worth the risk of pushing it further from its central position?

    FWIW, there seems to be something in the human mind that is fixated on kings an other single powerful people. Get rid of that and you may be removing a glue that has held things together. Perhaps not, but is it really worth the risk?

    I know that when I've made changes in systems that were much simpler I've often introduced bugs that I had no intention of introducing. And that was in a system where I understood what all the parts were doing, and I was the only one allowed to make changes. With the current system it seems like the two most likely failure modes are: 1) Parliament removes additional power from the royal family. or 2) The monarch acts to increase their ability to exercise power.

    1 is what you are proposing anyway. 2 is something that will move you towards a previously existing relatively stable state. But this is assuming that people continue to accept the legitimacy of the government. I can't tell how important to that acceptance the monarch is, but I don't think anyone else can either.

    787:

    I know that when I've made changes in systems that were much simpler I've often introduced bugs that I had no intention of introducing.

    On another blog I deal with internally with more traffic than this one I recently go to try and explain that the bug they saw for a few months and now is gone wasn't fixed so much as other system changes in the dozens of computer bits that make the blog work covered up the bug. And likely exposed some others that no one has noticed yes. It's only when such a thing impacts you up front and personal do you maybe realize that things are going off center. And maybe have been for a while but no one noticed.

    In the US (where I'm at) and I suspect many other countries, minor bugs in the political systems have been covered up by the general operation of the system. And were ignored. As the count piled up things have now reached a tipping point where fixing any one bug doesn't help all that much.

    788:

    Foxessa & H
    There's always THIS for "Chum"!
    Maybe not quite what you were thinking of?

    Charles H
    Look at the present situation, here?
    We have a supposedly-legitimate government, through a realatively fair ( cough ) democratic process that actually has ZERO legitimacy, as of right now, with 2 years of chaos left to run.
    "What is to be done?"

    789:

    That is a nonsensical survival problem. You are dead, pure and simple, because you cwould die of hypothermia and starvation before you could build the technology you need. Humans could not have colonised the north until they had adequate weapons to kill large game, the ability to tan furs (however crudely) and make clothing, and fire. That's serious technology.

    It's dubious whether humans could survive even on the savanna without significant technology.

    790:

    Er, not really. There is no evidence for chamber-fellow, and the word 'chum' appeared out of the blue in 1684. Chum as in bait is recorded only from 1872, from the USA, and has an unknown origin. Courtesy the OED.

    791:

    Can you remember how to walk over thousands of miles, where a good flint deposit was, where you cached something years ago?

    I suspect I couldn't walk 1000 miles very quickly at all, I'm built all wrong for that. But experience suggests that I can remember where I've been and go there again, with quite fine-grained memory of the bits I care about. At the trivial level I habitually navigate back the way I came without any problems... if I'm walking or cycling. In a car or train forget it.

    The other day I found some spare window bits and took them back to where I got them. Which wasn't there any more. Well, the building was in the place I expected, but the company that used to make windows there isn't. And I have no idea what it's called, so if they moved rather than went out of business in the ~10 years since I dealt with them I'm unlikely to recognise them if I do see them.

    That's a skill, and it does require learning and practice. But modulo navigation systems I could also tell someone else how to get somewhere... just not in a modern-useful way for the most part (cardinal directions using bicycle paths).

    792:

    Just because the US usage of the word "chum" turns up in it, here's a really nicely crafted song about an illegal fishing operation.

    793:

    That's a skill, and it does require learning and practice. But modulo navigation systems I could also tell someone else how to get somewhere... just not in a modern-useful way for the most part (cardinal directions using bicycle paths)

    Definitely a skill, and practice with lots of ways of navigating helps. Compass-and-map orienteering, street maps and dead reckoning, GPS, landmarks and bakeries, newsagents or pubs...

    I can't help but think of the first owners' ways with "roads", the ones our main roads follow now. Memory palaces and cities have a one-to-one map, and doing it on a much larger scale isn't intrinsically different. But it's a kind of knowledge, leaning how to do it self-consciously and passing it on to others too. And also giving directions, which might involve first working out what kind of directions work for the listener.

    794:

    News update:
    Obnoxius, traitorous shit loses libel case - DELETED BY MODERATOR -- Greg: beware of making libelous statements! ....
    Can we now, really seriously see about ameliorating this disaster?
    START by rejoining the Customs Union ...
    Then the scientific & cultural associations, followed by the Single Market?

    Then arraign Bo Jon-Sun for Sedition & Treason. { Along with Grease-Smaug, of course }

    795:

    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-dawn-of-everything https://nicholasgruen.substack.com/p/the-prisoner-the-torturer-and-the

    Nick Gruen also recommends "the dawn of everything" and links to a longer review as well. I find his list-of-links posts quite handy as a guide to further reading.

    796:

    it's a kind of knowledge, leaning how to do it self-consciously and passing it on to others too. And also giving directions,

    I think there's several levels: doing, explaining, and knowing which explanations work.

    Some of the traditional ways are pretty harsh to learn, and it's not easy to work out whether they're harsh because that's the only way that works long term, or they just happen to be that way and it's not fatally bad (oh no, social evolution theory).

    I struggle with anyone saying "do it this way. Don't ask questions. Just memorise". It winds me up in several ways, but I have sucked it up in the past and some of the ideas behind it have stuck. Partly because "understand, then critique" and partly just out of sheer curiousity to see whether the teaching system actually works when it feels so wrong.

    The "memory palace" stuff does kind of work, but it makes abstraction difficult. It's all very well imagining being there, but teaching someone else to imagine being somewhere they've never been is a whole other level of skill. Especially when the goal is to key those memories off an actual place, rather than just the imagining of the place. Even learning to learn that way is not easy. I got the impression from the guy that part of the teaching process was weeding out people who couldn't learn like that.

    797:

    That's not what the judge said. He said "Based on her investigation, Ms Cadwalladr had reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Banks had been offered ‘sweetheart’ deals by the Russian government in the period running up to the EU referendum, although she had seen no evidence he had entered into any such deals; and Mr Banks‘s financial affairs, and the source of his ability to make the biggest political donations in UK history, were opaque."

    He may have taken the money; he may not.

    Whatever. Why do you assert that Kremlin money is so much worse than USA oligarch money, of which there was VASTLY more pushing Brexit?

    798:

    Greg,

    Unfortunately, I believe that you may have potentially libelled Mr Banks.

    799:

    START by rejoining the Customs Union

    You talk as if the EU will automatically let the UK join back in.

    I suspect there would need to be some grovelling at a minimum.

    800:

    Shove them a bit too far off their central position and they tend to collapse into a very different form, often not at all what those pushing on the system desired.

    Russia, 1917. Enough said.

    801:

    EC
    "US Oligarch money" - REALLY? Ciu bono? - Putin yes, the US politicians, not so much. UK oligarchs - YES, though.

    David L
    Re-joining the Customs Union is a LOT easier than re-joining than the Single Market - that really would need serious grovelling.

    802:

    See also Russia, 1991.

    803:

    Think multinationals, control etc., and remember Murdoch is one. Furthermore, that is precisely the conclusion that at least one (maybe two) parliamentary investigations came to.

    804:

    Dave Lester
    He's have to get in line for all the people making rude remarks about him { And all the other creeps} ...
    In this piece from today's "Indie"

    To which, I may add the rider that there was an enquiry into Russian interference & - guess who (?) put a stop to it.
    Bo Jon-Sun, that's who.
    The corruption is running very deep & needs sterilising.

    805:

    Just seen this ... the rodents are starting to revolt
    And bloody good for them too.
    IIRC the Border Farce staff don't like the fascism coming from Patel, either?

    806:

    Orion's Arm website? Sorry, context, please. In my novel, I've only got humans (or at least recognizable humans, Beyonders excluded) spreading across about 5k ly, and that, of course, is not a sphere, it depends on colonizable planets.

    807:

    Yeah, split, split, split... and some of those splits are toxic. A long time ago, I was working as an office temp, and got to talking to this one woman I where we were working for a couple of weeks. She was in the "Church of Jesus Christ"... and in conversation, I mentioned a friend, and she replied, "you don't have friends, only acquaintances". When I said he was a friend, her response was, "wait till he stabs you in the back".

    And this is what you get, worshipping a "god of love"?

    808:

    That sounds about right. Did you notice anything missing? Oh, yes: production. All that stuff magically happens, and there's us Consumers out here, all mouth on a couch, with a wallet that never empties. No one ever, like, actually works to produce something.

    809:

    You forgot "avoid being eaten". Or standing around and hanging out (or playing, for the young ones).

    810:

    Wait, Moon, and Jupiter? Can't resist... so they're looking for the Monolith?

    811:

    The whole "neoconservatives were all Trotskyites" seems to be a meme without a whole lot of reality behind it. https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/4271 is one example of the counterargument.

    812:

    Reading ycts, I got to thinking: in general, it seems to me, Civilization doesn't just collapse. Forms move (say, Rome to the Middle East), with new added spices, as one country collapses, but it doesn't just go away. Show me where we lost copper technology, or iron. Or bureaucracy surrounding the new ruler.

    813:

    At the Ring of Fire Press open house this past Sat, there was an extensive discussion of "no, the white guys don't always win", and some thoughts on Native Americans winning.

    814:

    Yes. Esp. some of the wealthy religious nuts.

    815:

    No problem. But technologies are lost for other reasons, too.

    Western Europe lost a great number of Roman technologies during the dark ages. They didn't move away - they disappeared and were, later, regenerated from a separate set of civilisations in the east. If you don't call that era a collapse, I don't know what you would.

    The Andaman islanders and, even more, the Tierra del Fuegans had a smaller range of technologies than their ancestors did.

    816:

    Tierra del Fuegans Europeans had a smaller range of technologies than their ancestors did. (Moz strike/edit)

    Flint knapping went from something that everyone did to something that had to be painfully rediscovered by archaeologists.

    817:

    "Russia, 1991" is not as good an example because unlike 1917, nobody involved in knocking down the existing order had any clear idea of what they wanted in its place.

    818:

    Sometimes loss of technologies can just be a change of focus. Inappropriate technologies dropped, and new ones added. In dark age Europe there may have been technologies lost, but also new ones gained - the mould-board plough, horse collar, stirrups, 3 field crop rotation - all of which allowed more land in Northern Europe to be cultivated. And a bit later gothic architecture, which achieved buildings the Romans could not have dreamed of. In Polynesia pottery was lost, but sailing technology was developed which allowed those astonishing voyages across the Pacific.

    819:

    "Russia, 1991" is not as good an example because unlike 1917, nobody involved in knocking down the existing order had any clear idea of what they wanted in its place.

    I dunno. I think the American oligarchs who were involved had a very clear idea of what they wanted.

    820:

    It depends: Is "civilization" something that can be evaluated on a scale from lower to higher? Or is it whatever cultural practices are most adaptive given a certain set of geophysical, demographic and economic circumstances? It might be surprisingly difficult to measure "Civilization" in an objective enough manner to empirically demonstrate that what the Roman had was superior for the Romans than what the Western Europeans had for themselves several centuries later.

    821:

    If not Russia 1991, then Iran 1979, perhaps? IIUC the Shah was ousted by a coalition of students and intelligentsia, wanting a Western-style liberal democracy.

    822:

    Oh, definitely. There are a lot of similarities between 1917 Russian revolution and 1979 Iranian revolution.

    823:

    This point on definitions is important. The fact they are contestable is the whole point of this discussion.

    Following a very specific and narrow definition risks making an argument that is basically tautological. The conclusions are built into the definition, so there is really nothing to argue and the rest is just noise. Since there is no point in having a discussion along those lines, obviously the discussion is about definitions and why we think religion is a certain thing and not some other thing. Those reasons are basically historical and there are lots of reasons to discard the concept of religion as a separate and distinct mode of thinking precisely because the politics inherent in the reasons why we think it is a thing get in the way.

    824:

    I've been away for a while, so I'm not up to date, but here's my $0.02 on a subject that I'm deeply uninterested in.

    Greg seems to be calling those groups and practitioners that self describe as religions, "religions".

    Hetero et al seem to be calling every human and non human practice religion.

    To me, if you create a set with everything in it, you can really no longer say anything useful about it in comparison with anything else, because everything else is just a subset. You wash away all meaning.

    Should religious practices be protected? That becomes a question "should all practices be protected?"

    I religiously walk, ride and drive on the left. I should be able to carry on my cultural practices when I visit New York. And by damn I should get a tax exemption.

    It's a religious practice carried on by an atheist, a committed one, that believes that there are no gods, and has very good evidence that excludes the possibility of gods. So the reasoning is that Greg can't believe that religions are bad based on their obvious parasitic behaviour because I walk on the left?

    I usually don't agree with Greg, and do agree with Heteromeles and Damien, but this is just completely absurd. Hetero and Damien, by putting everything into the pot, you're defining religion out of existence.

    I don't like religions, but they exist. There are special things that humans do that is religion that is completely different to walking on the left, or telling children about the world, or any of the other vast panoply of human and nonhuman nonreligious activities. Religion is a self replicating and evolving parasite, subject to natural selection, that takes advantage of inherent faults in human instincts. It's a real thing and it's not everything.

    825:

    Oh, yes, indeed. I was horrified when I discovered how early the covert economic war on Russia by the USA military-industrial complex (MOST definitely including NATO) started. I knew about the political one, which also disgusted me, but the covert economic one wasn't common knowle3dge until later. Well before Putin, who was an effect not a cause.

    826:

    I stand by my definition in #672. It's broad, but not ridiculously so, and matches what most people think of as religions (whether or not they recognise things like the USA gun culture as one).

    827:

    On one hand, I agree with your argument about the forms religion can take. On the other, I think Het and Damien are telling us that religion is not a gigantic, overly inclusive set of beliefs, like, "I should look to Jebus for salivation" or "I should drive on the right side of the street." (Sorry, I'm a heretic.) but a toolkit for ensuring that certain very important things become habits, beliefs, or memories.

    In other words, religion is a form of education, but then we get into the question of "how is religion different than education?" I think that's the real question your thinking about sets which are too-inclusive leaves us needing to think about.

    828:

    Hetero et al seem to be calling every human and non human practice religion.

    No, that's the mistake Greg's making. I'm not saying that.

    What I am saying is that there are a bunch of practices, rooted in human biology and quite ancient, that were originally used to preserve information for long periods of time, stuff like where to find water, where to find good tool rock, where to go and what to eat during a major drought or flood, how to properly hunt various things you don't hunt very often, and so forth. The modern equivalent is memorizing recipes for Christmas cookies, if you can't read. If you can make the recipe into a song ("you put the lime in the coconut and shake it all up...") it's easier to remember.

    Since it's a set of tools and techniques (music, dance, ritualization, rites of passage, songlines, mnemonic devices, etc.), the permutations are endless, and the expression is ubiquitous, because this was how people remembered critical stuff when there were no books to read.

    This didn't change much when writing was introduced, because most people couldn't read. But bring in ubiquitous writing (thanks to paper, papyrus, clay, and especially thanks to printing presses), and all those techniques become available for other uses. THOSE OTHER USES ARE WHAT WE CALL MODERN RELIGIONS (and, for that matter, modern ritual magic).

    Think of modern versions of heaven as a repurposed memory palace and you might start to get what I'm talking about.

    Buddhism shows this more clearly than Christianity does. If you read the old sutras, Buddha quite clearly tells his tribe (sangha originally meant something like tribe) to listen, remember what he said, and regularly debate with each other what he taught so that collectively they remembered his teachings by making sure they all remembered the same words. And the teachings as they came down (look at the 37 requisites for enlightenment) are quite clearly designed for rote learning. The process Buddha directed is what Australian aborigines do today with their oral traditions.

    829:

    That's far too broad. It would include arithmetic, cooking recipes, most practical aspects of sciences and engineering, how to avoid heatstroke and hypothermia, and more. Indeed, pretty well EVERYTHING that needs to be passed on between generations, at least before writing.

    I take it that you regard my #672 definition as too restrictive?

    830:

    Related to nothing in particular except the general state of the universe at this time.

    My daughter landed at LHR this morning. She got to experience the current European airport security slowness first hand.

    We got a message from her after landing and waiting a while:

    "Heathrow is where dreams go to die."

    831:

    That's far too broad. It would include arithmetic, cooking recipes, most practical aspects of sciences and engineering, how to avoid heatstroke and hypothermia, and more. Indeed, pretty well EVERYTHING that needs to be passed on between generations, at least before writing.

    Not exactly. The key point is that religion as we're fussing about it is a relatively modern definition, and it gets harder to define the further back you go. Where was the dividing line between Christianity and secular practice in Medieval Europe, for example?

    The shortcoming of your definition is that it hinges on belief and heresy. Buddhism mostly doesn't fit this. Buddha is recorded as basically saying, "Try it. If it works, keep doing it. If it doesn't, do something else." The reason for this is that forcing people to do stuff generates karma for yourself and for them. If you're practicing to get rid of all your accumulated karma, why do you want more? The Taoists practice the same way for the same reason. Shinto has similarities (look at the Wikipedia article on Inari Okami and tell me what would constitute heresy).

    What we flag as religious behavior now is about ritual, song, dance, pilgrimage, veneration of particular symbols, and chants. Those are mechanisms, not beliefs.

    What I'm also trying to do is provide an alternative to Dawkins and other people who define religion in Christian terms and then try to come up with reasons it evolved. I'm proposing that if you look at Christianity as a large set of systems that borrow basic human systems for their own uses, then you can look at the adaptive value of those basic systems and stop trying to talk about evolution of religion from a Christian reference point.

    And you're right, everything does need to be remembered if you can't write it down. That's the evolutionary basis for the processes religions now use. But those processes are not, in themselves, religions.

    832:

    EC @ 826
    O poor, delicate, misunderstood, innocent, pure little Mr Putin!
    NOT fucking buying it.

    H
    No, that's the mistake Greg's making. I'm not saying that. NOR AM I, actually (!)

    833:

    Now, if you really do want to watch the world burn, you can ask different questions:

    Evolution is about leaving behind more offspring. What kinds of religion help people to do this? Is any part of this biologically inherited? And is it memetically inherited?

    Might be a quiver full of problems doing this research...

    The other thing is that humans have two inheritance systems: genes and memes in Dawkins' terms. If you're into spreading and multiplying memes rather than genes, which system works better: lecturing in school, preaching from a pulpit, or broadcast media? In other words, who's propagated their memes betters: Dawkins, Billy Graham, or Trump?

    Or we can change the subject.

    834:

    IMHO, Religion is a shared narrative, centered around the experience of faith in some higher power or abstract principle. "Faith", OTOH, describes an emotional state, not an act that others can observe. That makes what religion is an inherently subjective concept, one that will be impossible to comprehensively define using objective terms. It's a religion if it feels like one (much like Art). We have little choice but to trust the practitioners self-definitions, however recursive they may seem.

    Obviously, all the standard recognized religions, from Christianity to Islam to Buddhism, etc. are "in", by this definition. Science is mostly out, because we are trusting the self-definitions of the practitioners (education is out for the same reason). US gun advocates are in (though not in the way most of you think so)--at least for those who see their advocacy in terms of their evangelical Christianity (most, though not all of them). Capitalism is out, because the market isn't an abstract principle--like science, their God is materially real, and their miracles work (for a certain definition of "work").

    You might be able to call certain extreme forms of individualism a religion--it is an abstract cultural narrative. Ditto certain political ideologies. Pretty much any form of absolutism is a religion, though the reverse isn't true. Due to it's subjective nature, the boundary must remain somewhat ambiguous.

    There can and should be in-between cases, cultural movements that display some but not all of the features of a full religion: fandom is the best example I can think of.

    Because it is a shared narrative, the essence of any religion are stories--not necessarily limited to literal stories about people and events in the past, but specific narratives that share a story structure. Doctrines, rituals, symbols and so forth are secondary devices used to tell the stories, but they are not the religion itself.

    I would like to suggest that Faith in this sense is a primary emotional need, one that needs to be expressed in the form of shared narratives in order to satiate the internal need. If I'm right, the implication is that Religion will never go away, and cannot be replaced by more objective forms of thought like "Rationality" and such (sorry Pinker). I observe that most people seem to use shared beliefs and emotions as a trust-marker, the tribalist nature of humans seems to ensure that people will seek out such trust markers as a way to include and exclude other people, reducing social anxiety and satisfying their need to feel safe within and in-group. Such feelings are experienced a "true" to the people who share them on a level that is difficult if not impossible to fully question (it's like doubting whether or not other people are real). I don't think we can educate that out of people, and trying to (say, through the public school curriculum) would most likely introduce more problems than it solves.

    We might as well work with it, is what I'm saying.

    835:

    Sometimes you let your bigotry turn into just plain arseholery. I am talking about the era from nearly a decade earlier than Putin was FIRST elected onwards. As Anyone With Clue knows, the Russians (at least initially) voted for and overwhelmingly supported Putin, precisely because they wanted Russia to stand up for itself against what was being done to it.

    836:

    Wow, I can't believe I'm on Greg's side. This is weird. Greg is indulging in a fair amount of hyperbole the way he puts it, but Washington did screw over the Russians back in the '90's, when their guard was down. Russia opened itself up to the West, and all we could see was huge dollar signs. That set the basis for soured relations ever since (Putin's domestic propaganda has been intense and skilled, but he build on a foundation that already there). To that extent, we bear some of the blame for missing out on an opportunity to promote democracy and international peace and prosperity. Who knows, maybe the events in Ukraine would not have happened had Bush I been a little more restrained and forward thinking.

    837:

    Correction: it was Elderly Cynic I am agreeing with, not Greg.

    [Wishfully thinks about an edit button...]

    838:

    Capitalism is out, because the market isn't an abstract principle--like science, their God is materially real, and their miracles work (for a certain definition of "work").

    So if it works, it's not religion? That's not inherent in your definition, if I read it right.

    I picked on capitalism as a religion because some of its fundamental tenets, like money, are painfully hard to define. Look at the current fight over whether cryptocurrencies are real money or just a negative-sum scam, for example. While it "works," things like value are determined by what people are willing to pay. Worse, money like the US Dollar is a "full faith and credit" system that only works so long as you have faith that a dollar is worth a dollar, that a dollar credit will be worth a dollar later, and that the US government will make sure this all stays true. That's a lot to have faith in.

    Taoism would similarly not be covered under your definition, because the practitioners look at as a set of empirical science-like practices, not a faith. Many traditional Chinese medicine practitioners are actually Taoist practitioners, who became doctors during the Cultural Revolution to avoid being imprisoned or killed as religious practitioners.

    And that gets to the other problem, that religion may be defined by outsiders, especially European missionaries and ethnographers, even when the practitioners say that what they're doing is not a religion. I think you'll find that religion is defined by those in charge, as often as by the people doing it. While, yes, the FLying Spaghetti Monster is an ad hoc religion devised to poke political requirements for religions, something like Falun Gong gets persecuted as an illegal cult. In the US, we see this fight cropping up when politicized Christians attack evolution as a false religion, trying to force evolutionary biologists to fight on the ground of belief rather than evidence.

    It's complicated.

    839:

    EC
    Putin the KGB-man, through & through?
    How nice

    And yes, some of the "grosser" US commercial interests screwed up by the numbers & certainly didn't help ....
    But like here, even with outside interference { Murdoch, Putin } it { Bexit in our case } would not have happened if there hadn't been an undercurrent of vicious domestic stupidity floating around, waiting for exploitation.

    H
    when politicized Christians attack evolution as a false religion, trying to force evolutionary biologists to fight on the ground of belief rather than evidence. - THAT may come back to bite the christian bigots in the USA - I hope.
    "Kitzmiller/Dover" was decided, in the end by "Intelligent Design" being categorised, correctly as a specific religious belief, rather then science-based-on-evidence.
    And, therefore violated the "Establishment Clause" of the US constitution. The violent, loud & misogynistic attempts by the unholy alliance of Evangelicals & the "R" party to interfere in the insides of women's bodies is a RELIGIOUS practice, confined to some christian sects - & - as Charlie has pointed out, other religions, like Judaism, f'rinstance has no problem with abortions, if the woman's life/health is in danger.
    It OUGHT to possible to get every single anti-abortion law thrown out under said Establishment Clause - shouldn't it?

    840:

    "If you can observe it objectively, then it isn't Faith" is the definition I am going with.

    You can observe money, by exchanging it for an item or service of value. Crypto-currency may or may not be an effective medium of exchange, but it exists in an objective sense. It is true that you have to trust other parties to fulfill their obligations in an act of exchange, whenever currency, or concepts of private property are involved. Still, you can observe, later, if your trust was correctly placed or not. Therefore, the trustworthiness of other people is an objective property of their behavior that exists in an objective sense. God, the Dao, even "Liberty", do not. They exist as elements of a shared narrative only to the extent that people feel them. IMHO, this distinguishes religion from other cultural practices.

    I am passingly familiar with Dao, and I know that they traditionally regard the objective universe (including such things as the Self) as an illusion, and that "The Way" which can be spoken is not the eternal Way (ie, the true Dao cannot be described in words). Dao, properly regarded, is ineffable and inscrutable, and so it qualifies as a religion by my proposed framework (this does not imply, of course, that religious practitioners cannot discover or follow practices that have real practical value. Of course they can, as witness the many Christian, Jewish and Muslim scientists, among others).

    "And that gets to the other problem, that religion may be defined by outsiders, especially European missionaries and ethnographers, even when the practitioners say that what they're doing is not a religion."

    Of course, political complications ensue. I am not attempting to provide a framework that encompasses every definition of religion that anyone has ever used, merely the one that I use. Scientists and others acting in good faith can, of course, attempt to make objectively correct statements about religion and religious practices. People who engage in certain practices can attempt to objectively describe what they themselves are doing. How valid these statements will be depends on what definitions they are using and how they document the practices. I wonder if those people who explained that they are not practicing a religion were using the same criteria I have proposed here? It is entirely possible that Western scientists could describe a community as having a religion even if it doesn't qualify by my own criteria, or that a community could claim that they do not have a religion even if it does. That's a discussion that could happen.

    I would point out that, even if such statements were objectively correct about what they are describing, they will nevertheless fail to communicate what the emotion of Faith feels like to those experiencing it. There is a type of "subjective correctness" that acts of worship will have among those who share them, that objectively correct descriptions of those acts will fail to capture.

    Evolution doesn't qualify as a religion by my own or any other reasonable criteria. That's just projection (and very likely dishonest to boot).

    841:

    It OUGHT to possible to get every single anti-abortion law thrown out under said Establishment Clause - shouldn't it?

    Um no, I'm afraid that's not going to work. The problem is that there are four kinds of truths (at least): scientific truths, religious truths, legal truths, and political truths.

    The argument is less about who's right, and more about who gets to decide and the consequences thereof.

    842:

    DeMarquis
    I LIKE your definition - of objective description, if only because it clashes so horribly & often violently with the practitioners of christianity & islam & others, who depend on "faith in the unseen" ...

    H
    Really?
    If it can be shown that the objections to abortion are restricted to one, or a subset of particular religions & that other religions ( & "no religion" ) have no problems, then the anti-abortionsts are de facto acting on religious grounds to alter US law, which is not allowed. Yes/no?

    843:

    *If it can be shown that the objections to abortion are restricted to one, or a subset of particular religions & that other religions ( & "no religion" ) have no problems, then the anti-abortionsts are de facto acting on religious grounds to alter US law, which is not allowed. Yes/no? *

    No, because then we couldn't have judges. The assumption is that someone who "solemnly swears that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same..." is telling the truth when they take the oath, until proven otherwise. If you assume that a Catholic (like, erm Joe Biden) can't be pro-choice because he's a Catholic, then you're assuming that the oath of office is meaningless and no judge can be trusted, because they undoubtedly have other allegiances that will supersede any oath they swear to defend the Constitution, and they will rule based on their other beliefs.

    JBS can correct me on this if I got it wrong.

    844:

    Speaking as someone who practices Daoist exercises (largely for health reasons) and is studying the Daodejing with a former Daoist priest...yes and no. The Dao isn't taken on faith, it's experienced. English translations and commentaries miss this, because that statement is simply pointing (in part) to the notion that you can experience all sorts of things that you can't put into words. The Dao is basically the universe and all its processes. If you think you can even experience a reasonable fraction of it, let alone put your experience into words, you are sadly mistaken. That's the ineffability of the Dao. Nothing faith-based there.

    In terms of faith, I'd say where faith occurs in the Dao is when you place faith in your teachers that what they are doing will help you. Trust is a thing, faith is trust in action.

    That's very different than having faith that Christ will end time, raise you whole from the dead, however long you've been dead, and let you have eternal life thereafter, provided you believed in Him. Physics and biology kind of contradict this, as does common sense. That's one version of faith, but it's not present in everything called a religion.

    Faith in money? Talk to anyone who's been through a depression or an episode of hyperinflation. The central miracle of capitalism is that I can take a special piece of paper, hand it to someone, and they will give me food, water, clothes, tools, a place to sleep, or whatever, and not because the paper has any material worth to them, but because they trust that they can do the same thing with it with someone else. If people lose faith in their money, then the whole thing falls apart. The value isn't objectively real, it's what people are willing to give it, as any bidding competition shows. I'd simply suggest that, if you're going to declare Daoism a faith based on the idea that students have faith in their teachers' skill, then capitalism is a faith too.

    845:

    I think the problem here is that at the end of the Soviet Union they threw the baby out with the bathwater. Getting rid of Russian Communism? Great idea. Getting rid of Marx's analysis? Not so smart.

    846:

    Not that I want to attack your support of my definition, but I would like to point out that I am in no way attacking religion or implying that "belief in the unseen" is wrong--merely that it is subjective rather than objective in nature.

    Also, anti-abortion is based on a narrative that says an unborn fetus, after conception, is human (or that a potential future human is worth protecting as much as a currently living one). It is therefore only indirectly related to religious beliefs as such. The establishment clause only prohibits government support for explicitly religious statements, not beliefs that are derived from religious beliefs by several chains of reasoning. Note, however, that I am not a constitutional scholar.

    847:

    Getting rid of Russian Communism? Great idea. Getting rid of Marx's analysis? Not so smart

    Having certain first-hand (or at least second-hand) experience with what happened in USSR in 1991, I would say there was no chance in hell of getting rid of the first yet not the second. Every Soviet citizen alive at the time grew up with Marx as a holy prophet, and with Politburo as infallible priests. Once you recognize that the priests are just a bunch of parasites guzzling caviar while your hot water is inexplicably shut off, it takes a truly unusual mind to recognize that the prophet may have been onto something after all. Especially when all the best material goods in your life and in the life of everyone you know, flow from the world the prophet had declared as doomed.

    My parents were born in 1945. Try telling them that Marx may have been right about something, anything. They will call you a brainwashed fool.

    848:

    Washington did screw over the Russians back in the '90's, when their guard was down. Russia opened itself up to the West, and all we could see was huge dollar signs.

    I recall seeing similar statements concerning American foreign policy, but they were about the aftermath of WWII, and how short-sighted policies that maximized American profits were driving countries into the Soviet camp.

    Has anyone written an alternate history where America did a Marshal Plan for the USSR, rather than encouraging corporate looting?

    849:

    It sure sounds like you're throwing everything into the pot.

    My keeping left has most of the attributes of religion. Taught to me as the one true path as a child, I keep to it as a matter of faith. Should I rebel and decide to drive on the right, then in short order I'll be cast out of society. No longer treated as an adult, I'll have the rights of an adult taken away. The rite of passage I experienced when I became an adult, getting my licence to drive, will be nullified.

    The one thing it lacks is a song line to remember which side to drive on.

    For that I'd need my boat licence "Green to Green, Red to Red, perfect safety, go ahead".

    So driving on the left, navigating a channel, remembering my ABCs, https://youtu.be/75p-N9YKqNo they're all religious?

    But you're NOT saying that, so you say.

    Some other thing is religion. An ancient thing with rituals and song lines. But not these rituals and song lines.

    This sounds like you're giving Greg a hard time for having his definition of religion as "an organisation that calls itself religion" while your definition seems to be "I can't define it but you'll know it when you see it" (but not when Greg sees it obviously).

    850:

    I have no intention of questioning your own practices, or the practices you learned from your teachers. However, are you certain that this branch of Daoism you practice corresponds to how it is experienced by a majority of the people who self-identify as Daoists? If so, could you explain to me, in objective terms only please, what a "Taoist Immortal" is? (http://en.chinaculture.org/library/2008-02/04/content_24184.htm See also https://www.learnreligions.com/the-eight-immortals-of-taoism-3182605).

    Now, to the extent that Dao in fact isn't based on faith in something non-objective in nature, then you are correct and it ceases to be a religion, and is closer to a life-philosophy or something like that ("Spiritual but not religious" perhaps). I would then also agree that this would be very different from what Christians experience, which remains a form of religious faith. To be sure, many Christians have objective beliefs about Jesus and what he did or will do, many of which appear to be very unlikely according to a strictly scientific interpretation of material reality, but those beliefs are not what I am describing as religious faith, but rather what if feels like to believe in Jesus. What does a sincere Christian experience when they contemplate their savior? Nothing objective, I can assure you (full disclosure: I self-identify as a somewhat liberal mainstream Christian, not of the Evangelical variety). It is this emotional mind-state that I propose as the essence of religious faith, and therefore the foundation of the shared narrative that is the core of any "religion" by the definition I am using.

    You will note, of course, that what you describe as "the central miracle of Capitalism" is a thing that you can observe as it happens. It isn't "unseen" as Greg puts it. I have already explained what I see as the difference between "trust" in an ordinary sense and "faith" in a religious sense. I further propose that "faith" in the capitalist process does not produce the same felt experience as worship does in a religious context.

    One possible problem that I want to address now is the possibility that you, or someone else on this blog, may not have experienced faith in the sense that I am describing. In that case, when I claim that objective descriptions of religious practices will fail to communicate what it feels like to have faith in a higher power, you or that other person may not know what I am talking about. You may just have to trust me.

    Yes, I know what I did there ;)

    851:

    Capitalism is out, because the market isn't an abstract principle--like science, their God is materially real, and their miracles work (for a certain definition of "work").

    Is it? Maybe at the upper levels of economic theory, but most practitioners are no more familiar with that than most Christians are with theology. Incantations about the Invisible Hand and Trusting the Power of the Market are used to justify actions just as Evangelicals use Scripture. (And in the same manner — text-proofing the source to support already-decided positions.)

    I've seen economics and business classes at the high school level, and took intro economics at university, and none of those had as much relation to testable reality as even grade school science classes.

    Maybe this is different at the upper levels, but most people who espouse capitalism as an economic system haven't studied at the upper levels — they've learned the incantations and when to use them.

    852:

    you're assuming that the oath of office is meaningless and no judge can be trusted, because they undoubtedly have other allegiances that will supersede any oath they swear to defend the Constitution, and they will rule based on their other beliefs.

    That does appear to be the case for a significant number of judges, including some that sit on your Supreme Court.

    853:

    That's very different than having faith that Christ will end time, raise you whole from the dead, however long you've been dead, and let you have eternal life thereafter, provided you believed in Him.

    I'm reminded of Crash Test Dummies:

    After seven days
    He was quite tired so God said:
    "Let there be a day
    Just for picnics, with wine and bread"
    He gathered up some people he had made
    Created blankets and laid back in the shade

    The people sipped their wine
    And what with God there, they asked him questions
    Like: "do you have to eat
    Or get your hair cut in heaven?
    And if your eye got poked out in this life
    Would it be waiting up in heaven with your wife?"

    [Chorus]
    God shuffled his feet and glanced around at them;
    The people cleared their throats and stared right back at him

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aqlS9SOkjs

    854:

    Once you recognize that the priests are just a bunch of parasites guzzling caviar while your hot water is inexplicably shut off, it takes a truly unusual mind to recognize that the prophet may have been onto something after all. Especially when all the best material goods in your life and in the life of everyone you know, flow from the world the prophet had declared as doomed.

    Two thousand years after one man had been nailed to a tree for saying how great it would be to be nice to people for a change…

    I suspect that Soviet Communism bears the same relationship to Karl Marx that Western Capitalism does to Adam Smith.

    855:

    A Taoist immortal is the same thing as a Buddha. The difference is that Buddhists believe that Nirvana can only be attained after death, while Taoists believe it can be attained while still alive. In both cases, the person will not incarnate again.

    Getting less mystical, Taoists believe that humans don't have a unitary soul, but rather we're composed of "multiple souls" or pieces of souls, some benign, some destructive. Think of this as a subjective description of someone's mind: we typically have multiple, learned personae (one for work, one for home, one as parent, one as grandparent, one as upstanding citizen, several as secret sinners, embarrassments, failures, etc). We also have all the good and bad baggage we carry with us. Taoist practice aims to let go of all that, the good and the bad (or in a different phrase meaning the same thing, merge it into one unified person), and simply live in the moment, being aware of and responding to all the energies of each moment, which is known as being aware of the Tao.

    Since my teacher's teacher was apparently a Taoist Immortal, I can say it's more complicated than that, because it's not just a one enlightenment and done. Even immortals regularly have to deal with all the crap the world dumps on them, by spending a fair amount of time meditating to let it go. They also have to do all the ordinary chores of living, eating, sleeping, and so forth. But when they die, the pieces of their "souls" don't get incarnated as part of anyone else.

    I come from a Christian background, so I certainly understand how you relate to Jesus. Taoism is very different. In it, you don't have a single soul, your mind is throughout your body, not your soul puppeting your body through your brain, primary teaching is practice and body based, not text based, and the goal is a long life without harm (or with damage healed) not eternal life in heaven. It does have a lot of mystical stuff, it does have a history of some spectacular failures (eating mercury is one of them), and I'm pretty sure some of it is woo by the standards of everyone here, including me.

    The key thing to realize is that almost everything you read in English about Taoism is written by people who aren't trained practitioners, so most people's understanding of Taoism is about at the level of Greg Tingey's take on Presbyterianism.

    Hope this helps.

    856:

    That would be perfectly in line with human nature, and you're right - it's easy to see all the reasons it happened.

    857:

    Hit submit too soon…

    Or the relationship that modern Christianity (of any flavour) bears to the teachings of a certain Jewish carpenter…

    858:

    Robt Prior at 852: "Is it? Maybe at the upper levels of economic theory, but most practitioners are no more familiar with that than most Christians are with theology."

    They don't have to understand it in a conceptual sense, they just have to be able to observe it in action. Walk into any grocery store, buy something. That's all that's required to put Capitalism into the category of things that objectively exist. If you want to be pendantic and propose that what they are observing isn't "Capitalism" but the economy, I won't argue, but I assert that no one worships whatever it is that the economists are talking about.

    Hetero at 856: I don't see bow your description of a Daoist immortal is objective in nature, but if the practitioners of your form of practice concern themselves exclusively with psychological aspects of the mind, then yes, I agree that what you are practicing isn't a religion. However, in that case I must ask you for a definition of the word "immortal." Are you asserting that there are human beings in existence who do not die? Or, alternatively, that humans have souls that are normally re-incarnated (except in the case of Immortals)? Do you regard this as a statement of objective fact?

    Further disclosure: I was a practicing Zen Buddhist for a short while in college. I don't claim any particular expertise in it (I was introduced to Zen via Alan Watts), but I do understand how different different religious faiths can be (though I suspect that your experience of Christianity is also different from mine).

    In any case, the question is whether or not the shared narratives by which Daoists define themselves are structured around a shared subjective (not objective) experience, which I am using the term "faith" to describe (though "worship" might have been a better term, have to think about that).

    Not sure what "woo" is.

    859:

    I suspect that Soviet Communism bears the same relationship to Karl Marx that Western Capitalism does to Adam Smith.

    Yes. (Also your Christianity example.)

    Problem is, there does not seem to be any realistic path toward Karl Marx's vision. Note that Marx did not advocate a violent revolution; he expected the state to just wither away. Well, the state shows no sign of withering. Any state, including the ostensibly Communist ones.

    860:

    "You can observe money, by exchanging it for an item or service of value. Crypto-currency may or may not be an effective medium of exchange, but it exists in an objective sense.

    Actually, currently being proven to be incorrect. The amount of pyramid collapses, flushed shell games and so on coming..."

    Not what I meant of course: Some specific promises centered on crypto-currency may be deception, but crypto does exist, I know people who bought some.

    861:

    My working definition of a religion is “a political party that claims its manifesto is divine text”... or something like that. Conversely, my definition of a political party is “a religion that admits its manifesto was written by people”. It’s sort of like “a language is a dialect with an army”

    862:

    Hetero at 856: I don't see bow your description of a Daoist immortal is objective in nature, but if the practitioners of your form of practice concern themselves exclusively with psychological aspects of the mind, then yes, I agree that what you are practicing isn't a religion. However, in that case I must ask you for a definition of the word "immortal." Are you asserting that there are human beings in existence who do not die? Or, alternatively, that humans have souls that are normally re-incarnated (except in the case of Immortals)? Do you regard this as a statement of objective fact?

    I think part of the problem is the translation of 仙/仚/僊, Xian in English (read the link). I don't think Taoist practitioners believe anyone (or anything) is immortal, other than the Tao, if that. However, physically immortal Taoists are a staple of Chinese folklore and culture. So, for that matter, is a superheroic, physically immortal, Buddha. Shades of South Park.

    As for souls, here's what I said in 856, since apparently I slipped it by you by burying it in the middle of a paragraph: "Taoists believe that humans don't have a unitary soul, but rather we're composed of "multiple souls" or pieces of souls, some benign, some destructive."

    "Woo" is stuff that's basically mystical speculation verging on (or completely) bullshit. I'm going to venture into it here, with a note that this is my guesswork, not something I've been taught.

    One of the central problems in Taoism and Buddhism is that, if the ego/soul is an illusion/conglomeration of parts, what gets reincarnated, and how does that happen?

    The Buddhist answer is a variation on the Grandfather's Axe paradox, phrased as using a lit candle (The first life in dying) to light the second, unlit candle (the next life). It seems that the Taoist answer is more that normal human consciousness is like a campfire, not a single flame, and the coals get scattered to light other fires (a many to many mapping). One of the traditional goals of a Taoist Xian is unifying all the coals into one fire and transmit that.

    So far as I can tell, both Buddhists and Taoists see the universe as panpsychic, meaning that they see consciousness as a fundamental property of the universe, instead of (or more likely, as well as) an emergent function of animal brains. In terms of mysticism, it's this universal consciousness that transmits the fragments of previous lives to incarnate in other living beings.

    In this view, if consciousness is part of the universe and not an individual property, becoming an immortal or a Buddha means not just identifying this consciousness within your own experience, but in making that the core around which you simplify and rebuild your identity. That's how someone becomes a Xian or a Buddha. Reportedly it takes multiple lives and a lot of luck, which is why people working on becoming a Xian or Buddha "save their work" by integrating their souls as much as possible and trying to pass it on, so that someone else can incarnate their task and continue working on it until someone in the future attains liberation as a result.

    In Christian terms, contemplate the possibility that the Holy Spirit is the universal consciousness of panpsychism, and that your soul is that part of universal consciousness that you treat as your own personal awareness. When you die, the "you" of your physical identity falls away, leaving behind only the universal consciousness that is God. Hell, in this case, is clinging to your personal identity after death, rather than letting go and letting God, as the saying goes. I'm probably wrong, but I think this is what the Perennial Philosophy is getting at.

    Here endeth the woo.

    863:

    The thing about money is that the physical coin or bill exists, but what is its value? It's not like a pocket tool or a cup of tea, where you know what it is, but it can be traded for either.

    It's easier to see the problem when you talk about billionaires. As has become old hat here, billionaires avoid taxes by controlling their wealth, not owning it. Yet they are treated as if they are "worth" X billion dollars. Why, then, is the US President not labeled a trillionaire, or US generals and admirals managing billions in assets flagged as billionaires?

    To add to the confusion, much of what a billionaire controls has only a potential value. What's real estate worth? A few weeks ago, it was worth more than it is worth now. The value of an asset is only known when it is sold, but that value is subjective, because it's what someone else was willing to pay for it at one point in time.

    And then we get into price gouging, hyper-inflation, and so on, and the mystery deepens.

    You're right, things like money objectively exist. But what determines their value to people? It seems that there's a big element of faith involved.

    864:

    Robert Prior asked:

    Has anyone written an alternate history where America did a Marshal Plan for the USSR, rather than encouraging corporate looting?

    Well, yes; the late Stuart Slade (the defense analyst, not the London playwright) wrote that into his THE BIG ONE series which begins with A Mighty Endeavor, and features Halifax's coup, an Armistice between the Third Reich and Great Britain leading to complete Nazification, the Commonwealth and SovUnion carrying on with the war, Japan having an attack of common sense and avoiding the entire mess, and the ultimate destruction of Germany by B-36 mass delivery of buckets of instant sunshine (12 to Berlin alone). Ten novels in the main series, with a few spinoffs, all somewhat Clancyesque.

    Slade had another, most interesting series, THE SALVATION WAR, which never reached print as an offended Xtian nutter scattered illicitly obtained copies all over the web, destroying any commercial value. Damned shame, as the world's armies going to war with Hell, followed by Bringing Democracy to Heaven, was very droll.

    865:

    ilya187
    My parents were born in 1945. Try telling them that Marx may have been right about something, anything. They will call you a brainwashed fool. - well, I was born in 1946 & your parents were/are SPOT ON!

    866:

    H
    about at the level of Greg Tingey's take on Presbyterianism. - which is that it's 150% SHIT. For worked examples see either Ian Paisley or anywhere in the US, especially the "South" where the War on Women is in full swing, or the remaining examples of the "wee Free" in Scotland.
    I can demonstrate, with numerous worked practical examples that my take on Presbyterianism is both correct & true, OK?

    867:

    My keeping left has most of the attributes of religion. Taught to me as the one true path as a child, I keep to it as a matter of faith. Should I rebel and decide to drive on the right, then in short order I'll be cast out of society. No longer treated as an adult, I'll have the rights of an adult taken away. The rite of passage I experienced when I became an adult, getting my licence to drive, will be nullified.

    Next time I travel to a "right" country I'm going to refuse to assimilate, then claim religious persecution!

    868:

    Marx's analysis of the social woes of 19th Russia was pretty accurate.

    869:

    I agree. Capitalism, per se, is simply an economic mechanism - nothing religious or even mystical about it. But some people promote it into the One True Economic Law (i.e. an abstract principle), claim that the Holy Market is the solution to everything (not just economics, in the strict sense), and treat any challenge to either as heresy. And THAT is a religion.

    That was the point of my joke to paws4thot about a pantry being a place of worship for Serious Foodies - you can turn pretty well any social mechanism into a religion if you abandon all reason in favour of blind, and above all bigoted, faith. Yes, including atheism.

    870:

    I fully agree with you. When it comes to things like abortion in the USA, the drugs policies in both the USA and UK, gun control in the USA, MAGA, the UK's immigration policy or Brexit, the scientific truths can get lost, and the legal truths are distorted by the political ones.

    You can add mathematical truths to the head of that list, but that's just a niggle.

    871:

    EC
    NEVER, EVER disputed that - don't try to change the subject!
    However, his predictions were as Inaccurate as those of the Space Cadets ...
    E.G. In Britain, the railways ( The bigger, better ones, anyway ) had internal pension-&-health schemes before 1885 & union recognition by 1910-12 - again, as a worked example.

    872:

    I'm not. Read what ilya187 said and YOUR response in #866 again. Clearly you overstated.

    873:

    EC
    Long walk, short pier

    874:

    Marx's diagnosis of the problems of 19th Century capitalism was pretty accurate. Too bad his prescription was total crap.

    But people like my parents reflexively deny even the "diagnosis" part -- if Marx said it, it MUST be false!

    875:

    Marx's diagnosis of the problems of 19th Century capitalism was pretty accurate. Too bad his prescription was total crap.

    In the 80s in the US there was a guy, Tom Peters, who did the books and seminars on how to be a great modern company. He was great at telling about companies that did innovative / transformative things. He never was able to tell other companies how to do such things.

    876:

    Walk into any grocery store, buy something. That's all that's required to put Capitalism into the category of things that objectively exist.

    So the ancient Greeks were capitalists? Because nearly three millennia ago you could walk into the agora and buy something…

    Long distance trade? Obsidian from Mexico reached the east coast of Canada before Columbus sailed…

    I assert that no one worships whatever it is that the economists are talking about.

    I've met people who certainly seem to. They put far more emphasis on their Capitalism* than they did on their Christianity. Yet when pressed, they had a hard time describing what either was, beyond "it's the right way to live" and "it is this collection of rules and sayings".

    I know self-professed Christians whose religion is making certain there are flowers on the altar, the right clothes are worn on Sunday, and new-fangled inventions like guitars never replace the organ (which is apparently what jesus used when he worshipped). If you grant that their Christianity is a religion then I know people who worship Capitalism the same way.

    Maybe economists are talking about something entirely different than many people understand Capitalism to be. But the same applies to religions like Christianity — what theologians mean is very different than the average naive practitioner believes. (This comes from an Anglican bishop, BTW, who as a priest concluded that most parishioners didn't want to learn more about their religion than the comfortable bits they learned when they were children.)

    *Possibly to buttress their anti-Communism, which they conflated with authoritarianism.

    877:

    Problem is, there does not seem to be any realistic path toward Karl Marx's vision. Note that Marx did not advocate a violent revolution; he expected the state to just wither away. Well, the state shows no sign of withering. Any state, including the ostensibly Communist ones.

    Someone here (Heteromeles?) noted that Marx was a very astute observer of social conditions and the reasons for them, but not so good at finding solutions. That seems to me to be a good thumbnail summary — I can give him credit for identifying the causes of problems without accepting his solutions at face value.

    Thing is, if you go back to Adam Smith, he too was an astute observer. What most people don't realize (because they haven't read him) is that he was against much of what modern capitalism has become.

    878:

    Thanks, I'll check them out.

    What I was thinking of was a change point later, like, say, around the time the Berlin Wall fell. What if the west had instituted something like the Marshall Plan to build Russia's economy, rather than leaving it to neocon looters like what actually happened?

    879:

    Marx's diagnosis of the problems of 19th Century capitalism was pretty accurate. Too bad his prescription was total crap.

    It's generally easier to diagnose a problem than to fix it, says the guy who spends far too much time as a critic. So I'll give Marx a pass.

    My personal test for whether I believe an economist or not is whether they became wealthy under their own efforts. Under that informal metric, Keynes, Buffet, and Taleb probably understand things better than Marx and Hayek did. This is imperfect, as there area certainly researchers (Ostrom) who are worth reading (on commons, in her case) who didn't get the chance to put it into practice. But that firm of Nobel laureates who went bankrupt on Wall Street some decades ago is testimony to the notion that sometimes experts fail.

    That said, Marx was always being supported by others if I remember correctly, so I wouldn't depend on him to plan how to organize civilization.

    880:

    Do you need a hand getting out of the water? :-)

    881:

    about at the level of Greg Tingey's take on Presbyterianism. - which is that it's 150% SHIT. For worked examples see either Ian Paisley or anywhere in the US, especially the "South" where the War on Women is in full swing, or the remaining examples of the "wee Free" in Scotland. I can demonstrate, with numerous worked practical examples that my take on Presbyterianism is both correct & true, OK?

    Ooh, and I was raised Presbyterian, too. So anyway...

    Finishing off the Taoism bit, I'll admit that the official Chinese take on Taoism wasn't that virulent, but it is problematic. As I understand it, the standard commentary on the Tao Te Ching was written by a 20-something whiz kid who passed the Imperial Exams really young and became the hot new star of the Tang Dynasty (might have been the late Han, I'm doing this from memory). His commentary on the Tao Te Ching became the standard. Sadly, he died young too, which is unrelated to the story.

    Problem with his interpretation of the Tao Te Ching was, he wasn't a Taoist, he just read it and like others (including me) thought he understood what was in it. He didn't. One problem he caused for later readers and translators was that he assumed that, when the TTC talks about kings governing kingdoms, it was prescribing political solutions, this despite the fact that, by the time he was writing, centuries of Taoist commentators on the TTC said uniformly that the king in his kingdom was a metaphor for how people were supposed to work with their own bodies. Another (and I may have this scrambled) is that I think he was the one who proposed that the Tao Te Ching (Ching means book) was composed of two parts, the Tao and the Te. According to my teacher, it's actually in three parts, starting with core principles in the first chapters and getting more complicated as it progresses.

    The real problem with the Tao Te Ching is that it's incomplete. My teacher's teaching a class on it right now, and the first lesson was how his teacher (the Taoist Immortal) taught it to him. They'd sit down, and the teaching would be: "these are the words, theses are what the words mean, and these are the practices associated with this verse." The last two have never been published in English. He's working on getting all this published in English, and the manuscript he turned into his publisher was 1200 pages long, to cover the 81 verses in the TTC. He expects it to be cut to 800-900 pages. I'm looking forward to reading it. Be that as it may, the TTC is sort of the cheat sheet for most Taoist practices, and all the different things different schools of Taoism do are referred to in it. Unfortunately, because Taoism is experienced in the body, just reading the words of the TTC is insufficient, although it is fun to read.

    882:

    @Het 863: Your answer is fascinating, because I can see how your version of Daoism skates the thin line between objective and subjective pretty much all the way. I think to the extent that the "soul" is just material consciousness recorded somehow somewhere in the material universe, then it's objective in nature (although almost certainly wrong--sorry). To the extent that the "soul" extends into non-material existence, and is preserved somewhere which cannot be observed by mundane means, then it fits the subjective frame better and "objective validity" doesn't apply to it--what I call "subjective correctness" still does though--the extent to which contemplation of these concepts satisfies innate human emotional needs, and feels consistent with other emotional experiences in one's life. This may align with the idea that the soul consists of many different parts, and the goal is to merge or dispense with them. A merged or unitary soul would certainly feel correct to the person experiencing is, leading to a sense of high integrity within oneself and between oneself and the rest of one's life. Then, to a Daoist, that would free you from the wheel of reincarnation.

    I still remember that moment I realized that the present moment of experience is the Buddha.

    "The thing about money is that the physical coin or bill exists, but what is its value?"

    Excellent and challenging point. Value is felt, and therefore not entirely objective in nature. Each person experiences some degree of want when contemplating a product or service for sale, checks with other people to see how much they want it, and settles on an amount of money they are willing to part with. I wouldn't call this experience faith, though. When you pray, nothing material happens, at least not right away (there are those who claim that it does, but they seem unable to replicate the effect before independent observers). When you buy something, there it is, right in your hand. It's not just the money that's objective, it's the outcome. It seemingly works for other people to, so you can replicate before observers. That's the final test for objectivity.

    @Robt Prior at 877: I already conceeded that "economy" might be a better term than "capitalism". Are there people who worship "Capitalism'? What the Greeks were doing may not have been capitalism, but they were engaging in commerce.

    Your description of lay Christians is spot on--I know people like that myself. And that is exactly what I am describing by the term "Religion". Religion isn't doctrine, or rules, or correct living, although those things can become attached to one. "Faith is the felling that one gets when laying flowers on an alter" is the best damn definition of what I am attempting to describe that I have ever seen, so thanks for that. Religion is the narrative one is telling in one's head to explain that feeling. Also, the knowledge that nearly everyone around you is sharing these feelings and narratives.

    Is there someone out there who experiences all that when contemplating the law of supply and demand? Well, if you say there is, then I'll just have to take your word for it, suffice to say I haven't encountered these people yet. The problem is the Capitalist narrative, which seems testable to me (they may be refusing to properly test it, but in theory it could be tested with the right evidence). To the extent that this is a correct description, then it isn't a religion (although the faith might be there). Do you know of any "Capitalist Worshipers" who posit an explanation of their beliefs which includes subjective elements that no one could, even in theory, observe? (not necessarily a God, but maybe something like "Liberty" or "Justice")?

    I think Elderly Cynic, up in 871, might have it right.

    One result of these conversations I am having here is that I have become convinced that this religion thing is clearly a spectrum.

    @CiaD: I see that you have configured yourself as a shared narrative. Good show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLxpNiF0YKs

    883:

    Capitalism without money is a bit weird, so let's skip that. In my view, the key features of capitalism are that money is held as the true indicator of value, and that the MERE ownership of capital enables you to generate money (i.e. you don't have to use whatever you own directly).

    The long-distance trade of the neolithic and bronze ages was not necessarily capitalism, and probably relied mostly on barter. Simply owning and working a farm, smelter or forge isn't necessary capitalist, either, but letting it out for money probably is.

    884:

    CHANGING THE SUBJECT #1

    Business Insider reported today that China's "Sky Eye" radio telescope (successor to Arecibo) may have detected signals from alien civilizations.

    from the Google translation, it looks like the head of the program is reporting that they discovered several signals that deserved further scrutiny.

    However, it's worth considering the possibility that China may one day announce that it's found ETs. Our reaction will be...?

    885:

    CHANGE OF SUBJECT #2 (because it's June)

    How to think about the Google engineer who was suspended after leaking chats with AI bot he claims has become sentient?

    On the one hand, the story reads like someone having some sort of break with reality. On the other hand, that's how they'd want us to read it if they were covering something up, isn't it?

    More seriously, if an advanced chatbot starts claiming to be self-aware, what do you do? How do you tell if it's parroting, or understands what it is saying in some way? And given that parrots are probably self-aware, how would you draw the line between provocative but mechanical behavior and something that might indicate consciousness of some form?

    I'm very obviously not in software or hardware, so I don't know how one would go about evaluating a program making such claims. More to the point, I'm unclear how many software engineers have become expert enough, not just in machine learning but in either philosophy or neuroscience, to start figuring out how to test for computer self-awareness. Can it be done mechanically, by looking at how the bot processes data and looking for strange loops or something? Turing testing? Or is it even more complicated than that?

    It's not an easy problem> I suspect it's all to easy to fall back on one's religious training or randomly acquired prejudices or ad hoc world models, and work off those, rather than trying to figure out if it's possible to objectively test such claims in anything, whether it's a human or a chatbot.

    Anyway, have fun with these. I know a lot of people are uncomfortable deep-diving into religion, so please take this as an opportunity to have fun with computer science instead.

    886:

    The long-distance trade of the neolithic and bronze ages was not necessarily capitalism, and probably relied mostly on barter. Simply owning and working a farm, smelter or forge isn't necessary capitalist, either, but letting it out for money probably is

    This is where Graeber's Debt might actually be accurate. Apparently, money popped up well into the Iron Age, so it's possible to run transcontinental trade without it. And they didn't do it by barter.

    What we know they did do: --Worked with weights rather than coins. Terms like shekel were specific weights, and a shekel of silver was about 11 g of silver. Of course, you had to trust that what was being weighed was silver, so trust was part of the transaction. Coins merely said that the authoritarian ruler who issued the coins (standardized lumps of metal) guaranteed that they were worth what he said they were worth, and that he collected his taxes only in his coins. Or else....

    --Credit. Temples in the Fertile Crescent would store large quantities of silver and other valuables, and let trusted people run up tabs against these stores of value, with debts being settled periodically, as crops came in and such. This is actually how money was often used from when it was invented, not as coins circulating, but as people running up debt and paying it off in kind, with money being used as a way to keep track of the relative value of things. Without money, people apparently just kept lists of equivalencies, so that a talent of grain was worth some number of cattle or other livestock, on the notion that one talent would be enough to keep a skilled workman fed for a year.

    887:

    A specific weight of (say) silver used for that purpose IS money.

    I was thinking more of trading between Cornwall and the Continent, and the long-distance American trade mentioned above. In the former, at least, there is weak evidence of end-to-end trading, but we really don't know.

    888:

    "More seriously, if an advanced chatbot starts claiming to be self-aware, what do you do? How do you tell if it's parroting, or understands what it is saying in some way? "

    I am extremely non-expert in such matters, but I'd watch(*) what it does while it isn't interacting with you.

    Does it look around at things, perhaps look more intently at ones found to be of interest?(**) Does it initiate contact with other entities without apparent solicitation? Does it play with kitties?

    (*) For various kinds of watching.
    (**) Oh, look, a squirrel!

    889:

    Ask it if it has any goals, give it the means to meet some* of them, and then see if it attempts to do so.

    *At some point short of DESTROY ALL HIMANS!

    890:

    H
    IIRC see also the Koku yes/no?

    891:

    Do you know of any "Capitalist Worshipers" who posit an explanation of their beliefs which includes subjective elements that no one could, even in theory, observe? (not necessarily a God, but maybe something like "Liberty" or "Justice")?

    I've met them, yes. They worship the Invisible Hand… not as a metaphor, but as something that will bring about wealth if you just trust it…

    892:

    Heteromeles @ 885: However, it's worth considering the possibility that China may one day announce that it's found ETs. Our reaction will be...?

    ... "Pics or it didn't happen!"

    893:

    Heteromeles @ 886:

    I hope someone is still chatting with it just in case it IS sentient. Wouldn't want it to die of loneliness or worse ... all beings need to be properly socialized so they don't go crazy.

    894:

    Kardashev @ 889:

    Maybe ask it to tell you what it thinks about when it's NOT chatting with you?

    Let the "AI" choose the subject and get it to tell you what it thinks about it (just don't let have control of the pod bay doors).

    895:

    Capitalism without money is a bit weird, so let's skip that. In my view, the key features of capitalism are that money is held as the true indicator of value, and that the MERE ownership of capital enables you to generate money (i.e. you don't have to use whatever you own directly).

    Decades ago I was at a party with a neocon who held that things were only worth what someone was willing to pay for them, so wilderness had no value unless people were willing to pay for land to stay undeveloped. He was impervious to arguments like "where do you think the oxygen you breath comes from", so I asked him how much he paid his wife for sex.

    The long-distance trade of the neolithic and bronze ages was not necessarily capitalism, and probably relied mostly on barter. Simply owning and working a farm, smelter or forge isn't necessary capitalist, either, but letting it out for money probably is.

    On a more serious note, making money from rents has been around for a long time — since the Romans at least. Does that make the Romans capitalists?

    If it does, then "capitalism" is probably so broad a term as to be close to meaningless. Or needs qualifiers.

    896:

    [ ... "China may one day announce that it's found ETs. Our reaction will be...?" ]

    That's so 2022. Yawn. Boomer move on.

    897:

    The Romans were most definitely capitalists.

    898:

    Is it ok to let the AI control the pub doors?

    899:

    On a more serious note, making money from rents has been around for a long time — since the Romans at least. Does that make the Romans capitalists?

    Interesting etymology, via wikiwalking: "Capitalism is an economic system based on the private ownership of the means of production and their operation for profit. Central characteristics of capitalism include capital accumulation, competitive markets, price system, private property, property rights recognition, voluntary exchange, and wage labor. In a capitalist market economy, decision-making and investments are determined by owners of wealth, property, or ability to maneuver capital or production ability in capital and financial markets—whereas prices and the distribution of goods and services are mainly determined by competition in goods and services markets."

    I think EC's right, the Romans were more-or-less capitalists, but you can google and find a number of differing opinions online.

    What's also interesting is where the word came from. Capital is late-medieval in origin, and it referred originally to moveable property: heads (caput) of cattle, and chattels like, erm, slaves have the same root.

    "The initial use of the term "capitalism" in its modern sense is attributed to Louis Blanc in 1850 ("What I call 'capitalism' that is to say the appropriation of capital by some to the exclusion of others") and Pierre-Joseph Proudhon in 1861 ("Economic and social regime in which capital, the source of income, does not generally belong to those who make it work through their labor")." Louis Blanc was a socialist, while Proudhon was an anarchist and founder of mutualisme. Marx never used capitalism, but he was certainly thinking about it.

    It's interesting that what was used as a negative term has been so thoroughly reclaimed. Wiccans take note.

    900:

    Next time I travel to a "right" country I'm going to refuse to assimilate

    I foresee a large truck assimilating you.

    901:

    He was impervious to arguments like "where do you think the oxygen you breath comes from", so I asked him how much he paid his wife for sex.

    I am far from a neocon and I totally understand your frustration, but this is not a good "gotcha" question. If someone asked me the same, my response would be "It's an even trade. My wife gives me sex, and I give sex to her."

    902:

    "Business Insider reported today that China's "Sky Eye" radio telescope (successor to Arecibo) may have detected signals from alien civilizations."

    You know, this is the plot from the book "Three Body Problem" by Cixin Liu. Anyone want to join the Redemptionist movement?

    "How to think about the Google engineer who was suspended after leaking chats with AI bot he claims has become sentient?"

    [Not a computer expert]: I can think of some weak tests to try: Can it be confused by words with multiple meanings? Can it track the meaningful nuances associated with deliberately incorrect sentences? Does it hesitate slightly before it produces an emotional response? If it's just a very complex Chinese room, it will start to repeat itself eventually. That sort of thing.

    I do like the idea of watching it while it isn't interacting with anyone.

    @Robt Prior at 892: "They worship the Invisible Hand… not as a metaphor, but as something that will bring about wealth if you just trust it…"

    The issue (for me) is whether or not they think the Invisible Hand is an objective phenomenon that exists in the material world, or not. To the extent that the answer is "no", it's a religion.

    @Het at 900: For all I know, the Roman elite may have been capitalists, but I don't know that you can characterize their economy as "Capitalist" in nature. The proles were getting by in the ancient way, I suspect. Can capitalism exist without stocks, for instance? Did the Romans have an equivalent to a stock market?

    903:

    @Het at 900: For all I know, the Roman elite may have been capitalists, but I don't know that you can characterize their economy as "Capitalist" in nature. The proles were getting by in the ancient way, I suspect. Can capitalism exist without stocks, for instance? Did the Romans have an equivalent to a stock market?

    From memory and checking Quora, no. But ancient Romans could certainly invest in shares of a business, and they often did.

    As with religion, we're in a question of "what characterizes capitalism, and how many of these traits have to be present for something to be considered capitalist." I don't mind discussing it (although I know more about religion), but I also want to make sure other people feel they can talk about other things if they want. It's not my blog, after all.

    904:

    I am far from a neocon and I totally understand your frustration, but this is not a good "gotcha" question. If someone asked me the same, my response would be "It's an even trade. My wife gives me sex, and I give sex to her."

    Better than asking whether he's finished repaying his parents for bringing him into this world, and if not, how negative his personal net value is. (in Chinese Buddhism, "milk debt" to one's mother is considered infinite, so...).

    905:

    I totally understand your frustration, but this is not a good "gotcha" question.

    That is true, and I thought of that later. But he didn't think of it at the time, and it shut him up so I'm calling that a win :-)

    906:

    repaying his parents

    I prefer to jump straight to a price for the person making the stupid remarks. In neo-liberal-land, like libertarian-land, people have a price just like everything else does. If it can't be sold it's worthless.

    I treasure a the libertarian adamant that he should have the right to purchase someone even if they didn't want to sell themselves. It was just a question of price. So I asked how much for his daughter. Not "is she for sale", but "name a price". In context he couldn't name a price too high since that was implicitly the price he was offering to buy someone else. In a surprise to us all, he was not happy to sell his daughter. Let alone at the price he was willing to pay for someone else.

    FWIW I also do this when offered sexual favours as bribes. I am happy to accept provided the favour is transferable and thus saleable...

    907:

    The issue (for me) is whether or not they think the Invisible Hand is an objective phenomenon that exists in the material world, or not. To the extent that the answer is "no", it's a religion.

    I've travelled with Christians who attributed arriving safely to Jesus' intervention (which they prayed for), not my driving skill. (Bloody annoying — I spent the day driving them around and at the end they publicly thanked Jesus for providing enabling them to get all their errands done. Apparently Jesus rewarded their piety by moving my heart to help them…)

    I've talked with Capitalists* who attributed profits to the Invisible Hand of the Market, and losses to the machinations of socialists undermining the market. (Totally ignored things like the government subsidies that made the difference between profit and loss…)

    Both groups seemed to be using identical reasoning. They have a preferred explanation for things, and events are twisted to fit that explanation.

    I strongly suspect that to an actual economist who works in the field dealing with naive Capitalists is as frustrating as dealing with naive Christians is for a theologian.

    *In the religious sense, not in the plutocrat sense.

    908:

    Walk into any grocery store, buy something. That's all that's required to put Capitalism into the category of things that objectively exist.

    Can capitalism exist without stocks, for instance?

    Now I'm confused. Could you clarify what you mean by "capitalism"? Because you seem to be first saying that being able to buy food proves it objectively real, and then later it seems that a stock market might be required required.

    Did the Romans have an equivalent to a stock market?

    Not as far as I know. Shares in an enterprise, yes. But AFAIK, these were not traded; they were more like partnerships.

    909:

    I prefer to jump straight to a price for the person making the stupid remarks. In neo-liberal-land, like libertarian-land, people have a price just like everything else does. If it can't be sold it's worthless.

    This is the realm of the old god, ALIENATION. The natural world, within which capitalism exists, can't be valued, so it is worth either nothing or infinity (few pay to breathe, but no one lives without breathing). The peculiar power of ALIENATION is to bring the natural world within the boundary of capitalism, by one person bringing it in, and another person being willing to place a value on it so that it can be traded (person in this case being a human or other legal person).*

    If you think about it, this little rite of ALIENATION is pure ritual, but it's the basis of all capitalist trade.

    This may seem trite, but it's a central problem in dealing with climate change, because we need to pay to take CO2 out of the air. I suspect part of the problem conceptually is that we don't have a good complement for ALIENATION. EXTERNALIZATION is theoretically one, but that god is typically about ignoring problems and forcing others to pay for them. With fixing climate change we are, figuratively and/or literally, taking money out of capitalism and renaturalizing to the non-valued world outside capitalism.

    I suspect that really bothers people. If it does bother you, consider that this discomfort may be a sign that capitalism has the characteristics of a religion, and what I'm proposing is heretical.

    *If you know anything about the gift economics, there's something almost like gift-giving about multiple people being involved in taking the gift out of the natural world and baptizing it with its first value. In gift economic theory, gifts are supposed to flow in circles of reciprocity, so what's taken out of nature should lead to something equivalent being given back. Starting it as a gift and evaluating it for trade is the key role alienation plays in capitalist beliefs.

    910:

    First, you'll be happy to know that the cold snap in Australia proves that global warming is just an anti-capitalist myth. Oh, and the electricity shortages and price disasters are because of green ideology making gas expensive and also making coal plants break down.

    But to your actual point: yes. The key work in my understanding of economics remains "Counting for Nothing" which is all about the things that don't exist in the Holy Economy but are nonetheless essential.

    My slant on the ecocide problem is more that the real economy is going to shrink one way other the other, and one way is much more pleasant. The current plan of inflating our way out of the shrinkage doesn't seem to be working very well, the Gurus of Monetarism have printed lots of new money, Gross Domestic Product has Duly Increased, but somehow The Economy is not happy. We must sacrifice more children pay rises for the precariat. And so on. (fear I sound like the great mind here so will stop)

    My suggestion is that since we are very much into makework, whether that be bullshit jobs or weird subsidies, we might as well make green shit. Either by The Great Reforestation or by throwing piles of money at various schemes and scams that will directly address the problem. Would it really be so bad for The Economy if we subsidised green power and carbon sequestration instead of merchant banking and housing speculation?

    911:

    I know self-professed Christians whose religion is making certain there are flowers on the altar, the right clothes are worn on Sunday, and new-fangled inventions like guitars never replace the organ (which is apparently what jesus used when he worshipped). If you grant that their Christianity is a religion then I know people who worship Capitalism the same way.

    For a lot of these people (and it tended to be ladies due to the times) this type of "service" was what gave meaning to their life. Aside from raising kids and cooking dinner they tended to have lives without much meaning. After all the "guy" was the one with the job who got to "achieve" and whatnot. So a lot of these ladies made doing auxiliary church things their purpose in life. To the extend some very non Christian emotions and actions would come out when turf was intruded on.

    This was so true of when I grew up. Things have changed a bit now. Ladies, err women, can actually have a job with a purpose now.

    I also ran into this buzz saw at our local community pool. To the extent that the "queen" of the pool was pure Machiavellian in any attempt to do something without all the details passing through her. Turned out she was a stay at home house wife of a successful engineer (who invented everything IBM ever did according to her) whose kids had grown and moved one. I suspect she didn't have anything else to do to occupy her life.

    912:

    On the billionaire issue, I just came across this article. The gist is that some researchers in Italy created a simulation of talent, luck and reward. Individuals in the simulation were able to combine luck and talent to increase their wealth, but also suffered bad luck that decreased their wealth.

    The outcome was an economy with the same power-law distribution of wealth as the real economy. However there was no particular correlation between wealth and talent, beyond a certain threshold. The real determinant of who got to the top was luck.

    Of course you have to take any such simulation with a big handful of salt: how much did the simulation embody the prejudices and beliefs of it's creators? Would different starting assumptions have generated significantly different outcomes? But its an interesting data point.

    913:

    The Romans had financiers, contracts, monetary loans with interest etc. - yes, they were capitalist. The proles have often used a non-capital market system (often barter) since time immemorial, because they don't HAVE any capital, including in the UK up until the 18th century, and 19th in places.

    I wouldn't claim that it was a PURE capitalist system - that's a very recent innovation (20th century).

    914:

    FWIW I also do this when offered sexual favours as bribes. I am happy to accept provided the favour is transferable and thus saleable...

    If it is not a secret, what is your job, where women(?) try to bribe you with sexual favors?

    915:

    I suspect she didn't have anything else to do to occupy her life.

    She and people like her really need to be introduced to MMORPG's.

    916:

    EXTERNALIZATION is theoretically one, but that god is typically about ignoring problems and forcing others to pay for them.

    Our economy is based on externalization. Consider how much caring work that is utterly necessary isn't considered part of the economy. (And falls disproportionately on women.)

    I'm currently reading this book:

    https://carolinecriadoperez.com/book/invisible-women/

    Interesting how many of the measures that we use to regulate our lives (like GDP, or medical trials) exclude women because doing so makes the numbers easier. I was particularly struck by the drug to treat a womens' problem which was only tested on men because that way the trial designers didn't have to deal with variability from the monthly cycle!

    Dragging this back to SF, in Ethan of Athos the protagonist is baffled about how off Athos child care isn't considered part of the economy, because on Athos it is the most significant part.

    917:

    To her and so many of the over 40/50 crowd in many places, a MMORPG doesn't count. They want to be in charge of people. Even at a social level. They want actual people to have to go through them. It's a power thing.

    I had no idea, stupid innocent me, that such power plays would be important to some people at a community pool.

    918:

    If you know anything about the gift economics,

    And if you don't, this game might be a fun way to start learning:

    https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/473205107/potlatch-a-card-game-about-coast-salish-economics

    Buy here (the print-and-play is only $1):

    https://www.drivethrucards.com/product/182080/Potlatch-A-Game-About-Economics

    919:

    I wouldn't claim that it was a PURE capitalist system - that's a very recent innovation (20th century).

    We don't have a pure capitalist system, unless the definition of capitalism includes hefty government subsidies.

    920:

    For a lot of these people (and it tended to be ladies due to the times) this type of "service" was what gave meaning to their life

    Well, for values of "lady" that include XY chromosomes… (at least wrt the organ). Granted the Altar Guild seems to be exclusively a hen party.

    921:

    Billionaires getting lucky? Yeah, Taleb made basically the same point in Black Swan. It's the old thought experiment of cloning Bill Gates. Namely, if you cloned Bill Gates now and had the kid raised unknowingly by an upper middle class family similar to the one Gates actually had, would the clone become a billionaire? Probably not, although he'd almost certainly do well enough. Contrast that with Donald Trump, who, if he wasn't raised by Fred Trump, would turn out drastically different.

    Still, it's good to see a simulation quantifying the intuition.

    922:

    Or we start also measuring something like Gross National Happiness (which seems to have fizzled outside Bhutan) instead of Gross Domestic Production. I don't for a second think this will happen anytime soon. The point is that the production measures were a way of keeping track that, in theory at least, with progress and trickle down and so forth, was supposed to keep everyone fed and happy. GDP isn't doing that and arguably rarely has ever done that. So a wise government (hah!) might decide that the continual problem of government instability might merit including other measures that more relate to keeping people fed, watered, and happy, and stop worrying about GDP.*

    Then, if GDP shrinks while Gross National Happiness stays level, who the fuck cares about GDP, and whether we're plowing trillions of what used to be virtual dollars into sucking carbon out of the air and decreasing useless production?

    *Yes, I know this is a pipe dream, in that industrialists sacking economies while lying about how well they're doing (using GDP measures) is the norm. Still, if you want a technocratic solution, downplaying GDP is likely part of the toolkit.

    923:

    I fully agree. But even the very idea was more-or-less unknown before the 20th century, because so many of the underclass operated on barter and (local) social economics.

    924:

    Namely, if you cloned Bill Gates now and had the kid raised unknowingly by an upper middle class family similar to the one Gates actually had, would the clone become a billionaire? Probably not, although he'd almost certainly do well enough.

    I know a collection of these folks. The path to become a billionaire BG is narrow and very few will make it through the opening. Musk, Thiel, Jobs, etc.. all made it through the opening. Many of the rest just became very successful "rich" folks. I worked for 2 of these and know some more. They tend to be utterly convinced that their way is the "right" want and tend to be totally dismissive of the options of others. After all they are so smart how can their opinion be wrong. And the ones who don't become rich/successful tend to be the jerks around us. In the US think of the grievous crowd that has been drawn to the right wing / Trump crowd. Some of whom were not right wing till grievousness became an option.

    925:

    David L
    IIRC ...Jobs was an arrogant bastard, who was usually right, unfortunately ......
    Musk seemed OK until recently, where he seems to have "turned to the dark side" - { worker exploitation & right-wing politics }
    Theil - I have heard/know very little about him, but none of it is good, AT ALL - like the wiki quote: Thiel is a conservative libertarian - which is shorthand for Fascist ARSEHOLE in my book!
    Gates is the nicel little softie - by comparison, at any rate. .. ( ! )

    926:

    Jobs

    usually right

    Not at all. But right at a few key points when being right mattered. Harking back to the narrow path point I made.

    Musk

    He is basically the same guy he always was. It just wasn't in the news. Seriously.

    Theil

    He and Musk made their first millions working together. Nuf said.

    Looping back to Jobs, one of the key people on the original Mac product says something like:

    There would be no Mac without Jobs. There would be no Mac after the initial models if Jobs had not be shown the door when he was.

    Jobs also took over the professional video editing market with Final Cut Pro. Then gave it up with the revisions he demanded in future versions.

    And there's a lot more.

    Jobs hit the game winning homer at just the right times. So most folks forgot the errors and strike outs. (Serious US metaphor here.)

    927:

    Musk seemed OK until recently, where he seems to have "turned to the dark side"

    Naw. He's always been this way — he just got a pass because self-driving cars are cool, and criticizing him got you jumped online by a hoard of fanbois…

    928:

    Theil

    He and Musk made their first millions working together. Nuf said.

    And because I can't resist:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-Jo-djilvo

    929:

    @Het at 904: "As with religion, we're in a question of "what characterizes capitalism, and how many of these traits have to be present for something to be considered capitalist."

    That's the classic sign of a prototypical category (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prototype_theory)

    Robt Prior at 908: "Both groups seemed to be using identical reasoning. They have a preferred explanation for things, and events are twisted to fit that explanation."

    And yet I assert they differ in the details. My guess is that those same Christians, if asked, would assert that the Jesus they attribute their arrival to does not exist at a specific time or place. On the other hand, my guess is that your Capitalists do think that market forces operate in the material world. Since I am trusting the explainations practitioners give for their own belief systems, I classify Christianity as a religion and "Invisible Hand" economics as something else (I won't dignify it by calling it an economic theory).

    909: For a definition of Capitalism I will go with "A system in which the inputs to production are private property; also, in which new capital is created by lending (hence my question about stocks)." I'm not familiar enough with the Roman economy to say if they qualify or not.

    @EC at 914: Yes, very interesting. Clearly, I need to learn more about Roman era economics.

    "If it is not a secret, what is your job, where women(?) try to bribe you with sexual favors?"

    Yeah, I was wondering the same thing.

    RP @ 917: "Our economy is based on externalization. Consider how much caring work that is utterly necessary isn't considered part of the economy. (And falls disproportionately on women.)"

    The ostensible reason caring work isn't compensated is because people want it to be intrinsically motivated. We all know what happens when you start paying someone for something they enjoy doing. Still shouldn't discriminate against women, of course.

    @David L at 918: "I had no idea, stupid innocent me, that such power plays would be important to some people at a community pool."

    I could tell you stories about condominium associations that would turn your hair white.

    Het @ 923: "The point is that the production measures were a way of keeping track that, in theory at least, with progress and trickle down and so forth, was supposed to keep everyone fed and happy. GDP isn't doing that and arguably rarely has ever done that. So a wise government (hah!) might decide that the continual problem of government instability might merit including other measures that more relate to keeping people fed, watered, and happy, and stop worrying about GDP.*"

    Thomas Piketty proposes that we use share of Total National Wealth instead per population decile instead. Still wouldn't capture uncompensated intrinsically motivated labor, but I don't know of a good way to do that.

    David L at 925: There is some level of wealth at which the empathy index starts to precipitously decline, and the sociopathy index starts to increase. Can't find the sources right now.

    930:

    Rbt Prior
    I thought Musk was given a pass, because of his rocketry? And apparent liking for The Culture?
    As for Theil ... euuwwww ....

    931:

    "Clearly, I need to learn more about Roman era economics."

    Be warned that I am no expert, but that is what I deduced from reading some probably reliable sources. Certainly, if it wasn't capitalism, it was proto-capitalism.

    932:

    I could tell you stories about condominium associations that would turn your hair white.

    Too late. Most is gone. Little left is near white.

    I've been involved in such. But with a condo association you have people with $100K or $1mil or more of assets tied up. I expect them to get a bit animated about their opinions. Not that I like it but I can understand that reason for it.

    933:

    @928

    [ "...he just got a pass because self-driving cars are cool, and criticizing him got you jumped online by a hoard of fanbois…" ]

    NY Times yesterday --

    [ Tesla Autopilot and Other Driver-Assist Systems Linked to Hundreds of Crashes The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released data on 10 months of crashes involving cars with automated components. A few were fatal.

    Nearly 400 crashes in the United States in 10 months involved cars using advanced driver-assistance technologies, the federal government’s top auto-safety regulator disclosed Wednesday.

    The findings are part of a sweeping effort by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to determine the safety of advanced driving systems as they become increasingly commonplace.

    In 392 incidents cataloged by the agency from July 1 of last year through May 15, six people died and five were seriously injured. Teslas operating with Autopilot, the more ambitious Full Self Driving mode or any of their associated component features were in 273 crashes. Five of those Tesla crashes were fatal. .... ]

    934:

    There is one problem with this article.

    Yes, the 392 crashes which involved "advanced driver-assistance technologies", 273 were Teslas, 90 were Toyota, and eight other automakers had 10 or less.

    But these numbers are meaningless without knowing how many such vehicles exist, and how many miles they were driven in driver-assistance mode. I suspect there are a lot more Teslas on the road than BMW's or Subarus with ADAT.

    935:

    @912

    [ "I know self-professed Christians whose religion is making certain there are flowers on the altar, the right clothes are worn on Sunday, and new-fangled inventions like guitars never replace the organ (which is apparently what jesus used when he worshipped). If you grant that their Christianity is a religion then I know people who worship Capitalism the same way.

    For a lot of these people (and it tended to be ladies due to the times) this type of "service" was what gave meaning to their life. Aside from raising kids and cooking dinner they tended to have lives without much meaning. After all the "guy" was the one with the job who got to "achieve" and whatnot. So a lot of these ladies made doing auxiliary church things their purpose in life. To the extend some very non Christian emotions and actions would come out when turf was intruded on.

    This was so true of when I grew up. Things have changed a bit now. Ladies, err women, can actually have a job with a purpose now." .... ]

    You missed the essential here: this is SOCIAL LIFE. Women are discouraged from having such a thing unless they working while having it.

    Where until relatively recently it wasn't respectable for women to get together and doing nothing but talk -- which men have always done, drink and talk/boast/etc., but their wives stay home alone. It's never been recognized how much the late 50's, early 60's feminism in the US among educated, white, suburban women was driven by the sheer loneliness of being a mom and wife out there and nothing else. Throughout history it is aacceptable for women to get together to do good works for the church and community -- which also saves the church and community having to pay for those services and those who perform them. They also have accomplished immense good agitating for improvements and additions, organizing the work and so on.

    This is real, valuable work, but is called community service.

    Communities have never been able to replace this level of community service since women went to 'work.' PTAs were disbanding because there were no mothers able to attend during the hours -- in those days the PTA meetings tended to be held in the daytime, because, you know, 'stay-at-home-moms.'

    There are so many reasons the white male xtian nationalist authoritarians want women out of the workplace, and are using cancelation of reproductive rights as the #1 weapon to get it happening.

    936:

    @935 The article does give the numbers of the variety of various models, as well as manufacturers that use some components of self-driving but not the full assembly. In some cities where the manufacturer is located and has a lot of vehicles on the road, they outnumber Teslas.

    The article, as was indicated with the .... signal, is a lot longer than the bits I pulled.

    937:

    in those days the PTA meetings tended to be held in the daytime, because, you know, 'stay-at-home-moms.'

    I dono. PTA meetings for me as a child in the 60s were in the evenings.

    You're missing the other part of this. Dad would take the ONE car in the family to work so mom could NOT go to a PTA meeting during the day in the suburbs. Except for the richer ones.

    My wife and I commented on this watching some episodes of "Mad Men" set in the early 60s. She told of having to take a taxi home from school when she got sick as the car was with dad at work. This was around 1970 in Alexandria VA.

    This is all multi-faceted depending on location and the particular situations. Richer moms had cars. We were not richer but since dad did a lot of second income construction and worked a lot of primary income shift work we had a car and pickup as far back as my memory goes. Around 1957 or so. But a lot of my friends in grade school (60-66) only had one car in the family.

    938:

    In some cities where the manufacturer is located and has a lot of vehicles on the road,

    Speaking from tales of people in the industry, those cars are mostly driven by engineers, managers, staff, etc... working at the factory who are definitely NOT typical drivers. They get "free" use of the cars but have to report back detailed notes of anything that didn't happen as expected.

    939:

    There are so many reasons the white male xtian nationalist authoritarians want women out of the workplace, and are using cancelation of reproductive rights as the #1 weapon to get it happening.

    Obviously I'm not female, but I'd gotten the unsubtle impression that "owning the liberals" was less euphemistic than it sounded. Minority rule (by a white male minority) only works if they're the only group that has the free time to organize and politic, while everyone else is too busy keeping themselves and their families alive to organize and get political.

    This seems to be a continuation of the same logic that said that slavery was justified because, if the slaves were free, they'd kill all white people.

    Fortunately, speaking as a white male, it is possible to get some of us to turn traitor to this notion of Our Kind.

    940:

    @988 -- I hadn't thought of that. I was thinking of where I grew up, which wasn't suburbia, but the true rural heartland, farming country. Men drove tractors or trucks or pick-ups to their fields, etc. and moms kept the car for the daytime driving. My own mom was president of the PTA. the Homemakers Club, the Ladies Aid Society, and officer of a lot of other community and religious organizations. All of which had a lot of meetings for planning events, the menus, and cooking and cleaning for them, whether in the town hall or the church basement, what there was called the Rehab -- the Rehabilitation Center, for patients with permanent injuries from our wars that made living alone impossible, for patients doing therapy, for patients too elderly-frail and / or with dementia who couldn't stay at home any longer.

    The moms organized parties with food, games, plays, and other entertainment for all the holidays -- even bringing gifts for everyone.

    941:

    The article does give the numbers of the variety of various models, as well as manufacturers that use some components of self-driving but not the full assembly.

    It does?

    Here is the article: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/business/self-driving-car-nhtsa-crash-data.html

    All I see is "About 830,000 Tesla cars in the United States are equipped with Autopilot or the company’s other driver-assistance technologies". I see no such figures for other manufacturers.

    942:

    Exactly. You don't know anything about the numbers until you know ALL the numbers.

    943:

    @Foxessa at 937: "This is real, valuable work, but is called community service."

    That we can measure: https://independentsector.org/news-post/independent-sector-releases-new-value-of-volunteer-time-of-29-95-per-hour/

    It's a dilemma--the conservatives aren't wrong to desire an increase in social capital, trust, and social support. And compensating such work is problematic for both economic and psychological reasons. But how to relieve the burden on women? How do you get men to go to PTA?

    We need a realistic way to liberate everyone from dependence on two person full time employment per household. I guess that's what child tax credits are for.

    944:

    We need a realistic way to liberate everyone from dependence on two person full time employment per household.

    We COULD recognize that there is nothing particularly natural about nuclear family; it is a product of Industrial Age. In agricultural societies children are raised by the extended family[1], in hunter-gatherer societies they are raised by the entire tribe. Part of the reason so many parents nowadays suffer from burnout is because raising children is too big a task for two people, let alone one. Here is a rather extensive article on this matter: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/03/the-nuclear-family-was-a-mistake/605536/

    I suspect that within 20-30 years some national government is going to bite the bullet and make child-rearing a profession, and pay competitive wages for it. It is not as radical as it sounds: Growing food is as necessary for society’s existence as raising children, and likewise used to be done by the entire tribe, yet it is now done by dedicated professionals. Why not raising children? Give up this failed innovation called nuclear family, and make child-raising a profession, done by people who have a disposition for it.

    [1] Or “extended family plus servants” if one was rich enough

    945:

    The ostensible reason caring work isn't compensated is because people want it to be intrinsically motivated.

    Which people? The ones who would be paying?

    That's certainly the case with Conservative governments. Harris hammered both nurses and teachers, publicly stating that they cared for their patients/students and would see that the didn't suffer (even though salaries were cut and workloads increased).

    Mind you, this is the same Harris that after he retired from politics invested heavily in private long term care homes, which his government had made a much more attractive investment by lowering liabilities and increasing public payments to the homes (while not mandating anything about the people actually doing the work in the homes).

    946:

    I saw that article. IMHO, it was missing two significant items.

    First, absolute numbers don't convey risk without also knowing things ike number of vehicles and/or distance driven.

    More significantly, Tesla has fought giving data, releasing data, and relentlessly spins the data released, often (in the person of Musk) claiming things the data doesn't support.

    For example, Musk's oft-retweeted claim that Autopilot reducing accidents by 40%. But most Autopilot use (93%) is on freeways, as opposed to normal driving (28% on freeways) where vehicles crash twice as frequently (by distance).

    So a quick calculation shows that simply following an Autopilot driving pattern will reduce crashes by about 40% — even if your car doesn't have Autopilot.

    Some data:

    https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986

    Tesla (and Musk) also seem to follow the techbro code that faking and lying are OK in service to a good cause, which is a successful company.

    Concerned about bone-crunching collisions and the lack of clearly marked pedestrian lanes at the Fremont, California, plant, the general assembly line’s then-lead safety professional went to her boss, who she said told her, “Elon does not like the color yellow.”

    (Yellow is the colour used to mark hazards.)

    https://revealnews.org/article/tesla-says-its-factory-is-safer-but-it-left-injuries-off-the-books/

    947:

    this is the same Harris that ...

    Sometimes it's hard to tell whether a politician is malicious or corrupt.

    (using the logical "or" there, the inclusive one)

    We have similar problems in Australia, with the "funny" part being that federally the right wing are vigorously opposed to any anti-corruption measures. They got somewhat forced into supporting a watchdog but as with anything they don't want to do but have to, their proposed one was useless. "can only investigate a very narrow range, cannot force answers and can only recommend to the minister that something be done"... they didn't quite slap a label on a mannequin and call it done but they came close.

    Oh, and now they're whining about the "teal independents" stealing their votes by running on three issues: climate change, corruption and gender equality. How mean and nasty of them to say they'll do what the electorate wants rather than what's best for themselves.

    Meanwhile in NSW, which actually has an anti-corruption watchdog with some teeth (you can tell by the number of disgraced former premiers they have persuaded to resign)... the current right wing theocrat wants to sell off a bunch of railway land and allegedly privatise the rail system. A clear case of "what's good for the politicians".

    948:

    Mind you, this is the same Harris that after he retired from politics invested heavily in private long term care homes

    Forgot to mention that Covid death rates in for-profit LTC homes was four times that in not-for-profit LTC homes. (Which typically treat staff better in terms of pay and scheduling, and have far higher occupant satisfaction.)

    Blood money.

    949:

    Dad would take the ONE car in the family to work

    My father walked to and from work (an hour each way) wearing a snowmobile suit in the -30° Saskatchewan winter, so that my mother had use of the car during the day. We got to school by walking or taking city buses, not being driven.

    This was 60s and 70s.

    950:

    And compensating such work is problematic for both economic and psychological reasons.

    Except when it's not, obviously. You'll note the comparison stops disfavouring healthcare workers once they become doctors or administrators, and I'm sure there'[s no connection between that and the gender split.

    You see the same thing in any other female-dominated occupation, and also when an occupation becomes female-dominated (architecture is one where that's happening now, as is general practice medicine).

    But how to relieve the burden on women? How do you get men to go to PTA?

    One way is to stop calling them "women's work", and among other things that means not disparaging and especially not criminalising men who do those things. This covers everything from not calling the cops when you see a man and a child in a playground together to not gossiping about how suspicious it is that a man works in childcare. In many places the incentives we normally use to discourage murder and robbery are also used to discourage men from caring professions.

    Another way is to focus on getting a better gender balance in those positions. Whether that be by asking why men don't take paternity leave or why women don't become sperm donors presidents. Also, seeing leadership, especially business leadership, become female dominated should IMO happen before we try to remove the negative pay effect for professions that become female-dominated. We could halve C-suite pay packets with only positive effects.

    951:

    Sometimes it's hard to tell whether a politician is malicious or corrupt.

    Oh, Harris was malicious, no question about that. As Premier he was paying back grudges he'd nursed for decades.

    Also corrupt. The results of the last audit of his government came as close as the auditors could come to accusing the Conservatives of malfeasance without actually making the accusation (which they didn't have the authority to make).

    952:

    David L said: I know a collection of these folks. The path to become a billionaire BG is narrow and very few will make it through the opening. Musk, Thiel, Jobs, etc.. all made it through the opening. Many of the rest just became very successful "rich" folks. I worked for 2 of these and know some more. They tend to be utterly convinced that their way is the "right" want and tend to be totally dismissive of the options of others. After all they are so smart how can their opinion be wrong.

    That stands in stark contrast to Musk.

    Musk talks about luck all the time. "We were so lucky that the last Falcon One got to orbit, we'd completely run out of money at that point and would have gone bankrupt immediately". "it was just luck that we got funding [for Tesla] literally in the last hour before we would have gone bankrupt" and "I thought that the probability of success was quite low"

    He also talks about being wrong all the time. From talking about trusting the wrong people, to being "so dumb" to think that getting Lotus to build the gliders for Tesla would save money or be faster through to "dumb mistakes" in building ablativly cooled chambers for the first merlin engines that were "obviously not reusable" and that were "more expensive and slower to build anyway".

    953:

    Re Musk exploiting workers.

    Doesn't seem like exploitation to me. The deal is laid out pretty clearly and he's not after workers that have no other options. Unlike say Walmart that employs desperate people and expects them to survive on food stamps.

    The deal is "if you're exceptionally talented, come work for us. We expect you to work 80 hour weeks, do your best work, get underpaid while you're here. But you'll also work on the most exciting engineering happening on the planet, you'll be free to try grand things and if they fail you'll get a pat on the back and be free to try again because failing is learning, and in 5 years when you're completely burnt out and no more use to the company, your stock will vest and you'll be a multi millionaire, and if you don't like that, you can go work for Ford 40 hours a week, and spend your 40 year working life trying to figure out how to make a door handle 50c cheaper"

    954:

    https://electrek.co/2022/06/16/tesla-untrained-employees-work-on-cars-service-problematic/

    In related news, sales staff are being sent into Tesla service centres because they have more cars on the road than they can fix. Who would have thought that all those service centres full of specialised staff and tooling would turn out to be necessary even for driveable computers made by The Prophet Elon.

    955:

    So, did Charlie invite the Seagull back?

    956:

    So, did Charlie invite the Seagull back?

    No, they're banned.

    957:

    in 5 years when you're completely burnt out and no more use to the company, your stock will vest and you'll be a multi millionaire

    Assuming that nothing goes wrong and Tesla stock price keeps rising. Note that its stock price is currently falling and they're preparing to lay of 10% of their workforce.

    Sad to say, he's not the first to try this particular deal. It does work sometimes, but getting healthy again after that level of burnout isn't precisely cheap either.

    958:

    Since we're over three-hundred, I'm looking for stories - I don't care where they come from - in which the protagonist fools the antagonist via careful wording, something like, "If you defeat me, I swear by Cthulhu I will marry your daughter." But which daughter is not specified, giving the protagonist access to a daughter the antagonist has not specified. It doesn't have to be a daughter either - the big issue is that the moral of the story should essentially be "be careful how you phrase your contract" or "be very careful of how you word your oath." It would be helpful, but not absolutely necessary, that the story be a folktale. Any help would be appreciated.

    959:

    Well if you don't like the odds, and you're a highly talented engineer, then there's always Ford, and a lifetime spent shaving cents off the cost of attaching the logo to the steering wheel, or some equally fulfilling task. A friend of a friend actually had that role (but for GM). They didn't think it was worth their life, and they left to take a huge pay cut to design racing cars. (before Tesla). You may see a fulfilling work life for low pay as exploitation, and grinding misery for union award pay as a life well lived, but not everyone feels that way.

    960:

    Yes, the 392 crashes which involved "advanced driver-assistance technologies", 273 were Teslas, 90 were Toyota, and eight other automakers had 10 or less.

    But these numbers are meaningless without knowing how many such vehicles exist, and how many miles they were driven in driver-assistance mode.

    They're also meaningless without knowing how many lives were saved by "advanced driver-assistance technologies" - people who would have died had a human been driving the car.

    961:

    Since we're over three-hundred, I'm looking for stories - I don't care where they come from - in which the protagonist fools the antagonist via careful wording

    According to legend, chess was invented by Grand Vizier Sissa Ben Dahir, and given as a gift to King Shirham of India. The king was so delighted that he offered him any reward he requested, provided that it sounded reasonable. The Grand Vizier requested the following: "Just one grain of wheat on the first square of a chessboard. Then put two on the second square, four on the next, then eight, and continue, doubling the number of grains on each successive square, until every square on the chessboard is reached."

    King Shirham laughed at Sissa because he had asked such a small gift. When he had someone to calculate the total number of grains, it took more than a week before he came back with the solution. King Shirham undoubtedly became very pale when he got the answer: the aggregated number of grains on all squares of a chessboard would be 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains.

    962:

    Hmmm, I downloaded the report that NYT "based" their article on.

    10 months is correct.

    The number of crashes is 130 not 400.

    The make of the vehicle is not reported, it appears NYT made that up

    It is broken down by entity reporting. Waymo not Tesla leads the pack with 62, slightly less than 50%, which makes it hard to understand how they reported 70% Teslas.

    NYT reports 6 people died and 5 seriously injured. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported one serious injury and noone died at all.

    963:

    “preparing to lay of 10% of their workforce.” I think that is a mischaracterization; apparently the layoffs apply only to non-production office staff. Supposedly rapid hiring has lead to some poor hiring- though honestly I suspect that is more ploy to scare people. I’d be more inclined to fire the hirers if that is really a problem.

    I really don’t think Tesla have any problem at all selling everything they can make. They have a long order book despite increasing production at an astonishing rate. Maybe some day other companies will actually produce more popular EVs but right now most ‘old auto’ are flailing like one of those inflatable tube-guys in a strong wind.

    I’ve been out of Silicon Valley for a while now but the entire start-up thing is pretty standard. It wasn’t even “work for sub-par pay and hope to get rich” but more “get paid lots and hope to get rich at the cost of your social life and some sanity”. I went through a reasonably successful IPO before IPOs became insane; it made enough for a good deposit on a modest house. My friend the founding CEO made several million (not even ten) and the replacement “respectable white guy sales exec from IBM to make investors happy” tanked the entire thing in short order. I didn’t accept stock after that, cash on the nail, thank you.

    I know quite a few people that have worked variously with Jobs, Gates, Musk, etc. and in general they’ll tell you that most of the time these folk are pretty ordinary. Various combinations of skill and luck and timing can pile up and cause something akin to rogue waves. The problem is that any tendency to megalomania gets massively amplified by increasing wealth.

    964:

    947 - *“Elon does not like the color yellow.”

    (Yellow is the colour used to mark hazards.)*" Not that this should be relevant where a hazard exists. You're just as hurt by a forklift if you're a tech billionaire hit by one as if you're an ordinary Joe.

    950 - My Dad would take the one car ~1.2 miles to work and occasionally use it for customer visits. OTOH my family home was within 0.6 miles of a range of shops including butcher, baker, greengrocer, and quite possibly candlestick maker so my Mum actually had less use for said car during the working day.

    964 para 2 - Well, based on other stuff I've read, if Tesla have issues "selling everything they make" it's at least partly that people who buy rather than company lease person transport don't want Teslas.

    965:

    That may be a UK thing? A quick Google search shows over 75% of all (petrol and EV) new cars in the UK are leased, and if you include lease like finance (the so called guaranteed future value) the figure is 91%. EV buyers are strongly pushed to leases with the selling point that you can upgrade to improved cars as the tech matures.

    Whatever, all the production slots at GigaTexas were filled 3 years out before the factory opened. That certainly sounds like they're selling all they can make, even if it's to leasing companies.

    966:

    Rbt Prior
    Harris was malicious, no question about that. As Premier he was paying back grudges he'd nursed for decades
    JUST - EXACTLY like our own, beloved (NOT) Bo Jon-Sun. He's a vicious little shit under all the bluster & bonhomie - you've only got to look at the way he's treating London & it's (admittedly idiot) Mayor, Khan at present.
    Every single move is motivated by spite.

    967:

    Since we're over three-hundred, I'm looking for stories - I don't care where they come from - in which the protagonist fools the antagonist via careful wording, something like, "If you defeat me, I swear by Cthulhu I will marry your daughter."

    I just read P. Djèli Clark's 'A Master of Djinn', which has deals made, and the wording is quite important in many cases. The protagonist doesn't always get their way, either.

    968:

    How do you get men to go to PTA?

    I went. And so did other men. 1990s into the 2000s with my kids.

    Again, there's a lot of this tied to where and when. Both are big.

    Where I grew up was a mix of urban and very rural. City of 30K. And while there was only one building over 4 stories, those folks lived in a mix of apartments and single family housing in small lots. And many could walk to the "market".

    I was in the burbs. All of 2 or 3 miles away. Yes you could walk to the market but it was a 30 minute hike with no sidewalks on the major roads. Which had been there for 100 years or more so the farm fencing was against the drainage ditch which was next to edge of the pavement. Note I could SEE the cows at the small dairy farm across the way. So our burbs were mostly where farmers had decided to subdivide 5 to 30 acres to bring in some extra money.

    Go out another 2+ miles and you were in pure farm country. I mean 20 acre fields of corn or beans or maybe 100 - 200 dairy cattle. (Nothing like the great plains but farm country to be sure.)

    All of these folks had kids in the schools. So we had moms who could drive a tractor and some who didn't have a license. And all the social groups tended to look down on the others. [eyeroll]

    969:

    The deal is "if you're exceptionally talented, come work for us. We expect you to work 80 hour weeks, do your best work, get underpaid while you're here.

    The unspoken part is:

    • you'll get treated like shit

    • we'll break the labor laws

    • we'll expect you to ruin you family life

    • don't even accuse us of breaking the law or we'll break you

    • Oh, yeah. If you die or get maimed because management is stupid, sucks to be you

    970:

    I know quite a few people that have worked variously with Jobs, Gates, Musk, etc. and in general they’ll tell you that most of the time these folk are pretty ordinary. Various combinations of skill and luck and timing can pile up and cause something akin to rogue waves. The problem is that any tendency to megalomania gets massively amplified by increasing wealth.

    Yes. And no. The successful ones know the difference between their public and private persona. And know to work hard to keep their public image polished.

    Of the two of these types I've worked for one didn't get this. He was in private and at times public about how disdainful he was of his customers who were trying to make him rich. In his view of the universe people should have bought his product and USED IT the way HE TOLD THEM TO. Like selling them a computer storage system and then being pissed that they didn't use the accounting system on it he felt they should. And it made him mad. I only lasted 9 months there before I packed it it.

    The other fellow I worked for was really a nice guy in public. He had the odd image due to personal dress and appearance like Jobs (but different). But in private morals had no meaning to him. I was young and dumb and getting paid well for a few years and was very useful to him. He pretended to be a friend. But once that usefulness was over I was just another cog in his fairy tails and finally I jumped.

    These folks are great at pretending to be someone they are not. Even taking it with a huge grain of salt, look at the story told by Gate's recently ex-wife.

    971:

    I really don’t think Tesla have any problem at all selling everything they can make.

    Not at all. So far the people with $80-$100K to drop on a neat toy auto still exceed the supply. Ford's, and I think Chevy's, order book for their new EV pickups are sold out for the next year or so. And deliveries are just starting to trickle out. And these trucks are actually useful for job site folks. You can drive them out to a site less than 50 miles away and run your power needs without a generator for the day then go home. (The extended cabs allow for car pooling.) Plug it in over night and you're ready for the next day. Expect to drop $70K to $120K for one of these but they do make sense.

    Especially in a world (well the US) of purchase tax credits, no gas taxes to pay for the roads being used, the auto equivalent of gas (for the truck and a generator or two) being way higher that the price of electricity just now.

    972:

    Ford's, and I think Chevy's, order book for their new EV pickups are sold out for the next year or so.

    My local Hyundai dealership too, and that's before gas prices shot up. (Was getting my car serviced and asked a salesperson about EVs — the first thing I was told was a warning that deliveries were running a year out.)

    Now I'm really hoping my 2010 car keeps running, because I want the next one to be electric and don't want to be carless for a year or more…

    973:

    We my wife and I consolidated out lives we had a nice Honda Civic (all the options) and what she called her putt-putt car, a 2009 Elantra with a few options but mostly no frills. Plus my Tundra 5.7L truck. The Truck was typically driven 200 miles a month on a when it was needed. I learned to drive it once every few weeks just to air it out to keep the mold/mildew at bay.

    My wife was back for 90 days (summer 2020) and an uninsured driver totaled her Elantra. And like you I've decided to not buy from the current crop waiting for maybe a hybrid but more likely an EV. And the choices just now just don't appeal to me. So I drive the Tundra if leaving her with it might be problematic. She refuses to drive it as it's "just too big".

    Plus the cascading chain of code upgrades to put a charger at my house would likely cost us $20K just now.

    975:

    Robert Prior:

    My father walked to and from work (an hour each way) wearing a snowmobile suit in the -30° Saskatchewan winter

    Similar to my dad in the 1970s-mid 90s, although he took the bus to work, and part way home (he'd walk the last 20 minutes).

    It's pretty harsh going to work in the winter, especially as far north as Saskatchewan. Dark when you leave home, dark when you're going home. Beat the SADs with exercise!

    Heteromeles:

    No, they're banned.

    Thank f*ck. Well past time.

    Troutwaxer:

    Since we're over three-hundred, I'm looking for stories - I don't care where they come from - in which the protagonist fools the antagonist via careful wording

    The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue by V.E. Schwab springs to mind. Devil figure (calling himself Luc in this book) makes a deal with Addie, thinking that she will find the terms so onerous that she'll fold and give herself up to the devil to be sent wherever souls he buys go.

    This proves to be a miscalculation on Luc's part. (Probably.)

    (V.E. Schwab tuckerized OGH in a previous book of hers, turning him into a seafaring pirate. Join me in imagining Charlie with an eye patch, parrot on one shoulder, cutlass in hand, saying "Yarr, me hearties!")

    Heteromeles:

    According to legend, chess was invented by Grand Vizier Sissa Ben Dahir.... King Shirham undoubtedly became very pale when he got the answer: the aggregated number of grains on all squares of a chessboard would be 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains.

    At which point King Shirham would take a page from the Queen of Hearts's book: "Off with his head!"

    (There was an article about how chess spread from India at Big Think five years ago that had a map showing how chess fanned out from India, going east, west and north. Apparently some versions made it to pre-Columbian Alaska. Needless to say, the Alaskan and European versions were quite different - more like fifth cousins, descended from a common ancestor.)

    976:

    's pretty harsh going to work in the winter, especially as far north as Saskatchewan. Dark when you leave home, dark when you're going home.

    Edmonton was the worst for me. Less than eight hours of daylight in the depths of winter, so easy to miss entirely. Noticeably worse than Saskatoon*.

    On the bright side, it's a dry cold — I didn't get frostbite until I moved to Ottawa (which is warmer but a lot damper).

    *Which is in Saskatchewan, for you non-grasshoppers out there :-)

    977:

    the issue is real.

    Well yes. I guess. Sort of. As we move to autonomous driving (and yes it may not happen) tire wear should go down. And there is a lot of variability here in how do people drive and how are the roads built. Lead (the metal) foot are we?

    To be honest in my not researched it much view, I'm OK with a bit of rubber dust these days compared to the lead along so many of the roads of the US, and I suspect the world, from the decades of leaded gasoline. My father surprised me 40+ years ago when he said he'd not use a leaf blower near a road to avoid stirring up lead dust to be breathed. It made me think about such things and annoy people when they ask questions about why do I not....

    978:

    an uninsured driver totaled her Elantra

    That always strikes me as strange. Up here, it is illegal to be on the road without at least third party insurance (currently $200k in Ontario).

    979:

    Edmonton was the worst for me. Less than eight hours of daylight in the depths of winter, so easy to miss entirely. Noticeably worse than Saskatoon*.

    Again, I have to say that Saskatchewan's Northern border is about as North as Helsinki is. This is also the Southern coast of Finland, so going about anywhere in Finland is going North of here. So... winters are dark - we get less than six hours of daylight at the darkest times, and in Oulu (about halfway up) it's three and a half hours. Of course summers have much more daylight, currently it doesn't really get dark during the night until August.

    Utsjoki, the Northernmost part, sees the last sunset in about end of November, and then the sun rises in mid-January the next time.

    I wouldn't live North of Tampere (about 200 km North of here), though.

    I hear this is somewhat of a shock to people moving to Finland, sometimes.

    980:

    Saskatoon at almost the same latitude as Cambridge, and Edmonton about the same as Hull. Used to get the "Did the sun ever rise today?" feeling working for the BBC, early shift started 08:00 and you could normally get away by 18:00 so unless you went up to the Club bar or restaurant block for lunch you didn't see the sun for a chunk of the winter on shift days.

    981:

    That always strikes me as strange. Up here, it is illegal to be on the road without at least third party insurance

    Ditto anywhere in the US. Driver wasn't even the owner of the car. My wife stopped at a light behind another car. The bad car hit her from the rear, (fairly low speed), and pushed her into the car in front.

    Got all the driver details and the cops took the report. But once the insurance started trying to track down the insurance of the at fault driver it was discovered that no body was doing anything legal. Not even sure of the registration on that car was up to date. Since no one was hurt and all cars driveable the police didn't follow up much. Last we were involved we got a letter from a collection agency / our insurance company basically saying they were going after the bad driver / and might have to talk with us at some point. Our insurance company was out $8K or $9K to us and the person ahead of us had more than a few $1k in damages.

    As best we could tell the person who caused it lives on the edge of the economy and will never pay up.

    982:

    Mainly to Heretomeles.

    On an irrelevant matter, I have just skimmed Nutrition and Physical Degeneration by Weston A. Price. Most of it is purple and extremely prolix polemic about tooth decay and improper maxilliary development, but it also goes into disease resistance, difficulty in childbirth and mental defects, and it was a HELL of a lot before its time (1938!). He asserts and provides evidence for a huge number of modern physical and mental problems being due to poor nutrition, both of the child and of both parents. And a lot of THAT being due to soil depletion.

    https://www.westonaprice.org/physical/

    Some of that is being accepted but, even now, it's not affecting social or political policy :-(

    http://www.tinread.usarb.md:8888/tinread/fulltext/lal/degradation.pdf

    983:

    “apparently the layoffs apply only to non-production office staff.” Hmph. It appears that is incorrect and in fact ‘hourly’ workers are being fired. If it’s actually people with a poor record that’s one thing but dumping a load of workers indiscriminately is dangerously stupid. I’m disappointed. I thought Musk might just possibly be logical.

    984:

    At which point King Shirham would take a page from the Queen of Hearts's book: "Off with his head!"

    Funny how that's everyone's reaction. Admittedly I had to think about it, but here's a more useful way to play it out.

    Sissa: [makes request]

    Shirham: Hmm, that sounds like you're trying to educate us again. Normally we resent that, but chess is cool. [Summons Chief Accountant]: Yo Accountant, tell us how much he's asking for, and whether we have it to give.

    [Accountant makes appropriate obeisances and bugs out. Pretty soon he's heard yelling in the background for a bigger abacus. And then a bigger one].

    Shirham [listening to the noise]: Okay Sissa, we'll summon you when we can reward you properly.

    [Exeunt Sissa, wondering whether he did the right thing. But running would spoil the lesson, so...]

    [Later on, a very tired Chief Accountant comes in and reports to Shirham, thereby teaching the lesson. Shirham ponders how he can use this against his enemies, and decides Sissa deserves an appropriate reward. Especially since he didn't run when he had the chance. Sissa is summoned].

    Shirham: Sissa, since we could not work out how to put that much wheat on your chessboard, instead we decided to give you as many silver coins as you can carry away from our presence on your chessboard. Got a problem with that?

    Sissa [relieved]: No sire. You are most generous.

    [Shirham]: Be it so. Pick up the chessboard. [He makes Sissa hold the chessboard out in front of him for some time while the silver is brought forward. Then lackeys slowly pile it onto the board until the old man is shaking and says he can carry no more.]

    [Sissa then has to do all the proper obeisances while not dropping the load of silver or the chessboard. It takes a bit of doing.]

    Shirham: [When Sissa gets to the door]: Guards, now escort Sissa to wherever the Chief Accountant is resting, make sure he carries the silver on his chessboard the whole way, and then make sure he gives half the silver to the chief accountant for doing his share of the work. Dismissed.

    985:

    Troutwaxer & JReynolds
    Invisible lives? - a whole collection of "invisible" people, who, eventually did great things.

    986:

    @963 -- Hmmm -- when I read it my take away was that Tesla's numbers were the lowest of crashes, events, etc. that have happened in the few months, really, that anyone has even begun to track such things. So what your argument is, is -- I dunno. I provided the article and you are arguing with me? who has no skin in the game, other than, having grown up on a farm, in a farming community, where everybody drives everything, starting from the point a kid's feet can reach the pedals (as machinery was then) and see over the dash -- I never want vehicles that aren't run by human beings.

    The very idea of a plane flown w/o human capacity to decide tells me, "Don't Do It!"

    But that wasn't anything I said, in the pull from the article.

    Gosh, you GUYS.

    987:

    Not following the numbers, but do they cover the thing where Tesla autopilot tries to disengage before the crash happens? I saw a snippet the other day that said there are lots of Tesla "manual driving" incidents where the autopilot disengaged a second or so before impact.

    Strikes me that that could affect the "automatic crash" stats, but also do so in a way that makes it clear that unattended driving is completely out of the question at least for Tesla.

    988:

    Strikes me that there's a pretty decent case for labelling Tesla's "Full Self Driving" as dangerously misleading advertising.

    989:

    I suspect also the restricted diets we all have these days. I recall australians being possibly an outlier but over a 5-10 year climate cycle they'd typically eat 1000's of different things. These days it's not just that our staples are 5-6 things, but the rest is low 100's and for many people I suspect under 100. That's going to affect trace element availability even with the best possible soils.

    990:

    Ilya187 @ 945: "We COULD recognize that there is nothing particularly natural about nuclear family..."

    Those are interesting points, but I suspect certain innate emotional impulses will prevent the human race from turning child rearing over to a professional class, nor am I certain that this would result in better quality child care. Anyway, I also suspect that, insofar as gender inequity is concerned, the economic barriers that prevent parents from leaving their full time jobs to focus on their kids are at least as important, if not more important than the cultural or emotional ones. We seem to live in an economy that requires 80 hours of paid work per week to support four people. Let's try to solve that first.

    Robt Prior at 946/Moz at 951:

    Employed health care workers were not the people I was talking about--I was referring to parents and other "unpaid" nurture care within the home. But gender inequities in the healthcare professions (not to mention all the other professions) is important. It's also an extremely complex problem: you have institutional inertia based on centuries of gender specialization, and it's associated economic infrastructure, which isn't costless to replace; Sexism at the individual level, not merely of those in charge of hiring decisions, but also the patients. My elderly mother, for example, will not be seen at home by a male nurse. Just forget it--I suspect it's combination of a lifetime of normative expectations, but also a base level of irrational fear. She won't let a strange male into her home, or invite him to touch her body. A doctor in a hospital is an entirely different proposition, of course--there's that lifetime of gender norms again.

    And then I suspect there are certain innate psychological differences between males and females such that even if you could erase all the institutional and individual sexism, some differences in which professions to pursue and how to pursue them would still remain. Of course, if that were all there was, the pay differential would be much less than it is now.

    991:

    The very idea of a plane flown w/o human capacity to decide tells me, "Don't Do It!"

    Piloting a modern aircraft is at the extreme end of human capabilities, even with the aid of amazing automation. Computers will doubtless replace pilots in coming years, just as they will almost certainly replace drivers of other kinds of vehicles.

    992:

    These days it's not just that our staples are 5-6 things, but the rest is low 100's and for many people I suspect under 100. That's going to affect trace element availability even with the best possible soils.

    This is one reason I take multivitamins! The other being my poor eating habits...

    993:

    I realise that, which is why I referenced "Counting for Nothing". But there's a whole lot of difficulty with many forms of unpaid work shading into non-work, or work that can't be paid, or changes detrimentally if paid (not just the intrinsic/extrinsic reward problem, or the illegality of paying for some work (varies between countries), but the impossible administrative overhead of deciding which actions are work and thus paid, and how much people should be paid for them).

    If I want to go on a date and offer to pay someone to do that, the whole process becomes very different for both people... and possibly for the legal system(s) involved. If I pay a person of negotiable affection to travel from the US to Australia and part of the payment covers sexual activities, which laws have I broken? What about the person I pay? Is the transaction liable to sales tax? Etc.

    But mostly I was responding that the "inevitable, unchangeable" factors that mean care work is the cliche un/underpaid work some vanish when men are doing it. The difference between a highly trained, certified musuloskeletal specialist and a massage therapist (and a home massage) is not purely whether they have a penis, but that does appear to account for a lot of the price difference. Oh, and men learn slower than women do, it takes a decade of training to make the former but only ~3 years for the latter (I am only partly kidding). The home cooking to foodiologist to dietitian progression is similar, although there doesn't seem to be a name for a (possibly non-existent) medical specialty in what people eat (gastroenterology studies the consequences rather than the requirements). And good luck paying your MiL for Christmas dinner :)

    One of the more amusing arguments is that if we did pay all the "unpaid work" GDP would go up and therefore through the magic of economics we'd all be happier. Strangely even the most hard-core economists appear not to believe this core theorum of economics, at least when it comes to the unpaid labour of women. Asking whether women count as people for the purposes of this experiment is considered rude. I suggest that reading "Counting for Nothing" if you have not done so would help you build your thinking on strong foundations, or at least save you recapitulating a lot of the thinking of others (even if you disagree with it).

    994:

    Those are interesting points, but I suspect certain innate emotional impulses will prevent the human race from turning child rearing over to a professional class, nor am I certain that this would result in better quality child care.

    Possibly that's not the alternative that they're actually talking about. Here are a couple of other possibilities:

    --The "it takes a village" approach, where everyone of an appropriate age is mother, father, or auntie to a child. This works, because it gives the mom (especially) time to work, take care of herself, or take care of other kids. Paying for licensed, professional childcare is new. Having someone care for the kids is not.

    --Matrilineal families, where everyone knows who the mom is, her brothers take the masculine parent role where needed, and the father (if known) spoils his kids, but they may or may not inherit anything from him. This shows up in places where the father is off working for months at a time, often in a risky job (think fisherman, but also factory or migrant labor), while matrilineal families own property, with the women often managing it. This shows up formally in a bunch of places, from Iroquois to Micronesia, and apparently informally elsewhere (we could argue that the Kardashians fit this pattern, for example).

    Polygamous relationships, often with one man monopolizing several women, rarely (but sometimes) the reverse. This can range from exploitative harems to one man married to a couple of sisters who raise their kids together. More-or-less illegal in the US, but that doesn't make them innately unnatural. Not every human pair bonds.

    This isn't to say that the nuclear family of one man plus one woman with kids is rare, because it isn't. It's just not unusually normal or natural.

    995:

    Foxessa said: So what your argument is, is -- I dunno. I provided the article and you are arguing with me?

    I'm not arguing with you. You posted a NYT article. NYT has a great deal of form for making up lies about Tesla.

    You quoted the article, that in turn claimed to be quoting the report.

    So I looked at the report. It didn't say anything like what the NYT reported that it said.

    So I posted what the report actually says. That's not an argument, it's just correcting FUD.

    996:

    Moz said: I saw a snippet the other day that said there are lots of Tesla "manual driving" incidents where the autopilot disengaged a second or so before impact.

    The report in question includes any autopilot activation in the 30 seconds prior. So situations where it disengages are included. (aircraft systems also disengage when things get extreme)

    997:

    Polygamous relationships

    ... by definition involve multiple women and almost always only one man (it's also commonly part of the definition but isn't required by the literal construction). Likewise a relationship with several men would be polyandrous. So pedantically you could have "one" relationship that was both polygamous and polyandrous.

    Even KTP is normally seen as multiple relationships though. Same way as most people don't have "one friendship" with all or even some of their friends, they have one friendship per person. Traditional polygamy is often seen as one relationship/marriage, but that's problematic for all the obvious reasons.

    The main issue with kids and poly relationships is social. All the same stuff that applies to same-sex marriage, except that it affects fewer people and has even more social stigma so we're at least 20 years away from being able to have a sensible discussion about it in public.

    Interestingly the kiwis recently had a 3-way divorce case where all three parties were found to have an interest in the marriage/communal assets and the judgement was at least superficially plausible (ie, not "A is divorcing B, they get half each"). So it's not legally impossible under current law (OTOH even when homosexuality was illegal it was possible to write contracts and exchange enduring powers of attorney etc but the obvious and commonly realised outcome was legal challenges and those contracts being ignored because the law is absolutely clear about things like who gets to decide whether to turn the machines off... and it's aisn't your same-sex partner (what is the past tense form of ain't, anyway?)).

    998:

    I have been told that Tesla autopilot has to disengage in order to pass control to the emergency braking etc systems. Since this is one set of code I don’t have access to, I can’t authoritatively say either way. I could see how that might work as an approach.

    And really, really, don’t pay attention to most commercial media headlines about them. Unlike Ford, GM, Chevrolet etc they don’t pay the danegeld so they can never be right.

    999:

    The "it takes a village" approach, where everyone of an appropriate age is mother, father, or auntie to a child.

    This is commonly also illegal, especially when done by non-white people in white supremacist countries like Australia. It's one of the many excuses for shoving aboriginal kids into the state care to prison pipeline, despite occasional witterings about family by said care system.

    FWIW I hate that term because if actual parents did what "state care" does they'd lose access to the kids and likely face charges.

    (this also ties in to the problems with formalising informal relationship in order to pay people for them. As soon as you're paying people to act as parents the relationship changes for the worse. But at the same time it's unreasonable and impractical to require foster parents to do that without any financial support. Many hard questions just in that one tiny edge case of "what is care work worth")

    1000:

    Facepalm Yes, I'm an idiot for not mentioning non-heterosexual relationships. Thanks for catching that!

    FWIW, I was trying to keep it simple with polygamy/polyandry, not realistic. Probably in doing so I was reacting to my perception of someone who thought that the alternative to a nuclear family was a kibbutz. Maybe just pitch them in the deep end with a long snorkel, next time?

    DeMarquis: around here we call this a long-tail graph. There are a few common choices, and many minority ones. This is true for gender, sexuality, relationships, views on religion, preferred coding language, and so forth. If you approach these with a binary either-or logic, things tend to get really weird, really fast. We then have the fun of trying to helping to enweird you as rapidly as we can. Not that we mind, but that's what's going on here.

    1001:

    the alternative to a nuclear family was a kibbutz

    I'm just going off my lived experience, man :)

    You don't have to have lived in an anarchist commune where several of the adults were in polyamorous relationships to think outside the nuclear family. But it helps.

    Also, I have met at least one polycule where there wasn't any real same-sex sex but there was more than one of both common genders. I think they were/used to be swingers and their living arrangement grew out of that. But it was important to them that I knew they didn't do any kinky or queer stuff. They were a big, happy, completely normal closed heterosexual (group) marriage. Technically both polyandrous and polygamous, at least in my opinion.

    (it's relatively easy to meet a lot of people like this just by being open to the experience. Although people have been known to say "but Moz you're different" after having told me things that they don't normally tell people so {shrug}).

    I have also had a fun discussion with my local state MP about marriage laws, and while he agreed that group marriages would be a beneficial addition to Australian law he also did not want to spend effort promoting them. His name is Jihad Dib if you want an idea of why he might not want to be associated with that particular campaign. He's awesome, BTW.

    1002:

    I know you won't believe me, but that is confusing situations where the driver disengages "autopilot" shortly before an incident with ones where the car does so, and leaves the driver maybe 1 second to react in order to apply brakes and/or steering in time to avoid the incident. (allowing 1s to react to the uncommanded disengagement and then time for the manual control commands be applied and to take effect).

    1003:

    This is one reason I take multivitamins! The other being my poor eating habits...

    Not saying your practice is a bad thing but it depends on the chemical supplement industry figuring out everything our body chemistry needs. And also assumes we all need the same things. Because we all have identical DNA protein coding. Right?

    Look up the cat food (USA only?) scandal a few years back where a major cat food maker found out their formula left out something cats needed but no other animals typically kept as pets. Lots of cats got sick and/or died before the missing bit was discovered.

    And on a dog/cat side note. Never give a dog some canned cat food for just one meal. Or they will go on a hunger strike until you resume giving them the good stuff. And look at you with a "why have you been keeping this from me all this time?" expression.

    1004:

    And good luck paying your MiL for Christmas dinner

    In many families the one in charge of such a dinner extracts a payment. Just not always in terms of coin of the realm or with receipts.

    1005:

    Strikes me that there's a pretty decent case for labelling Tesla's "Full Self Driving" as dangerously misleading advertising.

    This has been an ongoing issue with Musk for years. He hates anyone who can tell him what he can do or say. He is totally "free market" when it comes to speech. And most of the laws in the US and I assume most other countries about auto safety were written without any thought to autonomous driving.

    1006:

    And look at you with a "why have you been keeping this from me all this time?" expression.

    Well TBF that depends on what you feed them the rest of the time. A few thin slices of poached chicken breast on top of the standard "formula" dry food has generally worked for us. That and using a food dehydrator (looks a lot like an enclosure built around a hair dryer) to turn thin slices of raw chicken breast into dog treats. Just no actual raw meat, there are serious bacterial infections that pass that way.

    1007:

    Why would I not believe you? Obviously if you include all situations that have had the ADS activated in the last 30 seconds it muddles up car deactivated because the car is upside down or whatever with situations where the driver deactivated it because it wouldn't let them drive over 80 mph and they wanted to try driving at 150 mph through a forest or something.

    1008:

    Good point.

    You should consider taking up that cause célèbre when he releases Full Self Driving.

    At present the only production release is autopilot which is a lane keep assist and collision avoidance, so you've probably got a couple of years to get ready.

    1009:

    Employed health care workers were not the people I was talking about--I was referring to parents and other "unpaid" nurture care within the home.

    And yet there are countries that do just that. What is paid parental leave but a means of paying people to care for their own children? And there is no indication that, say, Swedish parents (with 480 days) love their children less than American parents (with no days).

    Indeed, given the relative attitudes to things like school shootings, one could snarkily claim that the evidence shows paying parents to look after their kids actually increases how much they care for them!

    1010:

    I suspect certain innate emotional impulses will prevent the human race from turning child rearing over to a professional class

    Really? Every professional child care worker I know has stories of people who do just that — leave raising their children to the school, the neighbours, older siblings, etc…

    Those old jokes about parents looking forward to the end of summer vacation so they can send their kids back to school? They date from the days when one parent stayed home (when 40 hours a week was enough to raise a family).

    1011:

    This has been an ongoing issue with Musk for years. He hates anyone who can tell him what he can do or say. He is totally "free market" when it comes to speech.

    If by "free market" you mean those with the money get to say what they want, and those without don't have a voice, then I agree with you.

    But in my estimation, "free market speech" is not the same thing as "free speech".

    1012:

    1006 - The present laws in most nations about autonomous driving just say you must not do/use it (even when they allow car "safety" systems like "lane enforce" to apply overrides to the driver's control inputs).

    1008 - I've no idea why anyone would attempt to select autopilot at twice the NSL. Or indeed why you would suggest that I might suggest doing so. My point is that there are documented cases (not that I've kept track of the publications they were in) where the autopilot has disengaged and required the driver to take the correct action instantaneously.

    1013:

    But in my estimation, "free market speech" is not the same thing as "free speech".

    Agreed. He's from the uber libertarian viewpoint that anyone can say anything they want and the "market" will correct them when wrong. Of course such corrections may involve poverty and death of others but hey, individual liberty. Right? [snark off]

    But this is why I think him in charge of Twitter is a really bad thing.

    1014:

    Yes. That was part of his point but, remember, this was written in the 1930s and analyses of such things was much trickier.

    1015:

    I suspect also the restricted diets we all have these days. I recall australians being possibly an outlier but over a 5-10 year climate cycle they'd typically eat 1000's of different things. These days it's not just that our staples are 5-6 things, but the rest is low 100's and for many people I suspect under 100. That's going to affect trace element availability even with the best possible soils.

    I could really go down the rabbit hole on this. The interesting thing about Australia is the prevalence of bugs (in the hemipteran technical sense) that exude (politely) manna and lerp. Back before whitefella screwed things up, manna and lerp were a major seasonal part of aboriginal diets. And they're basically sugars.

    Trace elements are necessary in trace quantities, so they're not that necessary to supplement. Where people do tend to get into trouble is with salts (sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium), and vitamins (especially vitamin D3, from spending too much time indoors). These aren't exactly micronutrients. With salts, too little or too much can be rather painful.

    1016:

    And good luck paying your MiL for Christmas dinner. In many families the one in charge of such a dinner extracts a payment. Just not always in terms of coin of the realm or with receipts.

    We do something like that fairly often. My niece and her brother are two of the best cooks in the family. We've taken to Venmo'ing them money ahead of family holidays so they can buy the food they want and prep it in advance for everyone to eat. This lets them exceed their current budgets. We could buy the food for them, but with large hunks of meat, preparation takes a long time, and this works better.

    And so do traditions evolve.

    1017:

    Only if you have a decent diet, and not always then. Iodine, selenium, fluorine, zinc and probably more all cause known deficiency diseases in some places. Many diets are also deficient in some vitamins.

    1018:

    He [Musk] is totally "free market" when it comes to speech.

    At least until his employees criticize him (they were fired)...

    1019:

    EC @ 1018
    IIRC, many vegans have to be very careful, as their diets are all-too-often deficient in vital trace substances.
    I don't think this applies to Vegetarians, as the necessary "things" are found in milk/cheese/eggs (usually)
    Doesn't bother me, with my well-balanced homegrown veg etc ...
    { Tonight - a small piece of Salmon, fresh peas, new spuds, today-cut lettuce & half a bottle of vino. Might have strawberries, for "afters". What nutrients might I be missing from that? }

    1020:

    He [Musk] is totally "free market" when it comes to speech.

    At least until his employees criticize him (they were fired)...

    That's "free market speech" in action. Those who control the market have free speech…

    Musk reminds me a lot of the comic strip Wizard of Id's "Golden Rule": those who have the gold make the rules.

    1021:

    B12 is available in only a few, very specialised vegan foods, unless added. Iron is the main problem in a lactovegetarian diet. Actually, there is a lot that you could be missing, but I am not enough of an expert to know what. I doubt that you are missing much, any more than I am.

    1022:

    Only if you have a decent diet, and not always then. Iodine, selenium, fluorine, zinc and probably more all cause known deficiency diseases in some places. Many diets are also deficient in some vitamins.

    Agreed, but you're also missing the point that dehydration is a deficiency in water, that often causes follow-on problems with low sodium, low magnesium, etc., because your sweat is salty and you don't reingest the salts you've sweated out that have dried onto your skin.

    These are deficiency diseases too, but they're so normal in hot weather that nobody thinks of them that way.

    1023:

    "fuelled by corn chips"... covid and the wet summer have really changed my diet, and the effect my habits have on me. By wet I mean cold, so I haven't been exercising as much or sweating much when I do exercise. So my chip consumption has gone down, but not as much as my energy expenditure.

    Actually, riding around the tropical bits of OZ with a group I was shocked at how little salt the official food had, and how the group tended to swarm roadhouses and buy hot chips that are basically kilojoules and salt. Both of which we all lacked.

    On a completely unrelated note, a podcast episode about the landcare group I'm part of: https://brainonnature.com/2022/06/16/regenerating-the-cooks-river-with-the-mudcrabs/

    1024:

    Yes, there have been cases where autopilot has disengaged and required the driver to take over. It happens all the time, as in every few minutes on most roads. That's why the car tracks to see if you're holding the steering wheel, ready to take over, and why the car will put on the hazard lights and stop if you let go of the wheel.

    The reason I mentioned crashes where the autopilot is disengaged by the driver was that I was agreeing with you. Crashes where the autopilot is disengaged by the driver are, as you say, muddled together with crashes where the autopilot disengages by itself and hands back control to the driver.

    As to why people drive 150 mph through forests... I don't know, but I do know of at least 2 cases. One high profile one a couple of years ago "two killed by Tesla autopilot" turned out to be the guy had owned the Tesla for a few minutes, he and a friend went on a test drive. He switched off the autopilot, accelerated from about 50 mph to the speed limiter speed of 150 mph over the following 9 seconds, then arrived at a right angle bend at 150 mph. Both occupants of the car were killed instantly. Many calls to ban autopilot followed from the media outlets that get 10s of billions per year in advertising from the companies who are having their lunch eaten by Tesla.

    1025:

    Moz at 994: "But there's a whole lot of difficulty with many forms of unpaid work shading into non-work, or work that can't be paid, or changes detrimentally if paid..."

    I agree with you.

    "Oh, and men learn slower than women do, it takes a decade of training to make the former but only ~3 years for the latter"

    Bear in mind that people often pay more because someone took longer to learn the skills. From a layperson's perspective, "Time = Amount Learned" can seem reasonable.

    Het at 995/1001: "Possibly that's not the alternative that they're actually talking about. Here are a couple of other possibilities:..."

    Which I'm totally cool with. But I wasn't really talking about how the children are raised, but rather whether/how the person/people raising them get financially compensated. IOW, the question isn't whether the household is nuclear or poly or whatever, but who is raising the kids, is it one or a sub-set of the adults in the household, is this by choice, and how should that time and effort be related to the economy? And even more to the point, should someone be paying them?

    Robert Prior at 1010: "What is paid parental leave but a means of paying people to care for their own children?"

    Yes, that's another approach. Here in the US, we have child care tax credits that go to any household with kids (or we used to at any rate). Another proposal is a flat government grant to each household per child, which some see as the first step toward a UBI. The difference here is that you aren't paying people a wage, and the money isn't supposed to be for earning a living, just compensating for child related expenses, so the complications associated with "formalizing an informal relationship" don't occur (see Moz' comment at 1000).

    Moz at 998: I believe the past tense of "ain't" is "weren't".

    1026:

    Many calls to ban autopilot followed from the media outlets that get 10s of billions per year in advertising from the companies who are having their lunch eaten by Tesla.

    You're too quick to correlate.

    In the US media most major markets tend to have a TV station with the unofficial motto of "If it bleeds it leads". It just so happens that in the US a huge source of local TV advertising income is from local car dealers. Helping them out is icing on the cake so to speak.

    I remember visiting a college roomie back in the 80s near San Francisco. He was telling me about a local independent TV station that most referred to as "Blood Scene 7". Many evenings all of their stories would involve either a death, ambulances headed to a hospital or both.

    As to getting technical details of a story correct, for local news outlets I just assume they are as likely to be wrong than right. Maybe more likely. I give the national guys a break and assume they are right at least 50% of the time. But these are still terrible stats.

    1027:

    And so do traditions evolve.

    I guess you missed my snark.

    With my mother and sisters there was a self flagellation and showing off they could do it and would remind everyone how hard they would work to get it done. Over and over again.

    With my father's father while as a kid I thought it neat for us and my cousins to visit the farm every month or so... When I was in my 20s my father said he hated those meals. His father used it as a time to chew out him and his brother about how the youngsters were ruining the church and everything else in the world. My father and uncle were in their mid 40s at the time. One ran the production line of a nuclear fuel facility.

    1028:

    mother and sisters

    mother and HER sisters

    1029:

    I guess you missed my snark.

    Yes I did. Weird how that happened.

    1030:

    David L said: You're too quick to correlate.

    Maybe...

    I look at the column inches devoted to Tesla car fires (lots) vs car fires in general (virtually none) and then I look at the average number of Tesla that catch fire in the USA per year, (8)

    https://cleantechnica.com/2021/12/08/its-extremely-rare-for-teslas-to-spontaneously-catch-on-fire/

    vs the average number of fossil cars that catch fire (287,000)

    https://www.charleston-sc.gov/722/Vehicle-Fire-Safety#:~:text=U.S.%20fire%20departments%20respond%20to,in%20direct%20property%20damage%20annually.

    and I really start to think that though one should never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence, this kind of lopsided reporting can't simply be incompetent reporters.

    And it certainly works. Look at the commentariat here that are utterly convinced that the slightest bump, or even no bump, and Tesla explode and incinerate their occupants in a fire that cannot be faught. And that this is a common occurrence, rather than the reality that this literally has never happened. (there have been fires, and people have died, for example the test drive I mentioned earlier, but the fire wasn't the cause of death and so far hasn't been because they don't explode the way fossil cars do, and there's plenty of time for the occupants to get out).

    1031:

    1025 - And, other than cases where autopilot is disengaged by the driver, the issue is the system, whether it fails to disengage at all, or it disengages and then requires the driver to take a specific action more or less instantaneously. After all, it's pretty well established that, unless the action is actually planned in advance (like most motorsports inputs), a driver's real world reaction time is around 1s, and not the fractional second that a reaction tester returns.

    1034 - I think you need to look at the cause of the fire without considering "is it this type of fire?". The last car fire I saw that was not due to catastrophic car damage was due to a fire in the electrical controls for the heating/ventilation system. That fire would not have occurred in a Tesla specifically because of the touch screen HVAC controls.

    1032:

    Carole Cadwallader:
    There were at least four meetings between the main funder of the Brexit campaign and the Russian government. There are reasonable grounds to believe there were many more. Fact.
    Right ....
    Will ALL the non-fascist "press" PLEASE publicise & keep re-publicising this, until it sinks in?

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Oh SHIT
    Quote from # 957
    * No, they're banned.*
    AND from # 976
    Thank fck. Well past time*

    AND NOW:
    1031 / 1032 / 1033

    1033:

    paws said: the issue is the system, whether it fails to disengage at all, or it disengages and then requires the driver to take a specific action more or less instantaneously.

    ???

    Sorry, I'm not understanding.

    Autopilot just maintains speed, holds you in the lane and hits the brakes if you're about to drive into something. It's not autonomous driving. There is no Tesla autonomous driving. (at time of writing) It's not the situation that you're going to be sitting in the back of the car working on a pithy reply on a Scottish scifi blog and then suddenly be presented with a driving emergency. You're driving a car. You. Not the car. You are driving. If someone jumps the median and comes flying at you, you are the driver. You have to "almost instantly" take over. The fact that the car was holding the speed and keeping you in the lane is no longer relevant. You're in the same situation as any other car driver who is driving a car. Yes, the autopilot will disconnect and beep at you when it can't see the road ahead because there's a car flying towards you upside down and it's blocking the view of the lane markers. That's not materially different to a situation where you were holding the centre of the lane manually.

    Nor is it a majic carpet that can teleport you out of a situation like that. Yes it hands over to you when the road ahead is full of flying car. What do you want it to do? It's not Fred Weasley's car. It can't fly. It's a fancy cruise control. You can't expect it to majically extract you from this situation if only it maintained control and didn't disconnect.

    It doesn't matter if it fails to disengage in an emergency because you can overpower it. Just like any other cruise control. The only thing it won't let you do is intentionally drive into the car in front.

    1034:

    Apollo 12 returned about 9 kilograms of Surveyor 3 ("a painted tube, an unpainted tube, the television camera, and the Surveyor 3 scoop") which had been on the Moon for 2.5 years. They were not "too hot to handle". The camera is on display at the National Air and Space Museum.

    The Apollo 12 Preliminary Science Report section Radioactivity Analysis of the Surveyor 3 TV Camera (p220) says:

    The Surveyor 3 TV camera was examined by gamma spectrometry on January 7, 1970. The purpose of this examination was to measure the radioactivity present and, more particularly, to determine if there was induced radioactivity present that could be attributed to the exposure of the camera to solar and galactic cosmic radiations while the camera was located on the lunar surface. ... These tentative results indicate that some induced radioactivity was present. The total amount of radioactivity, for all radionuclides present, was very small and amounted to approximately 0.003 µCi/kg.

    For comparison, Wikipedia says U238 is 0.34 μCi/g, so 340 μCi/kg.

    1035:

    So, did Charlie invite the Seagull back?

    No, they're banned.

    And back again for the second time since the ban.

    1036:

    Personally I'm glad to see her back (sorry Seagull haters).

    My understanding was she was banned from a specific thread, not this board as a whole.

    I don't understand everything she was to say. I just don't let a lack of understanding bother me.

    1037:

    PilotMoonDog
    Okay, I'll bite:
    You claim to understand some of her stuff, right?
    YOU CAN TRANSLATE FOR THE REST OF US

    1038:

    I could, but I would not as rule.

    Because understanding is not required for acceptance.

    I am especially disinclined to translate for people that shout at me. Sorry Greg.

    1039:

    @992

    My father, as well as loving machinery of all kinds, including cars that can go very fast, was also a highly skilled pilot of small aircraft and heliocopters. I grew up flying, so to speak. His real life tales of his own auto correct, as well as that of others, when something very suddenly goes wrong, such as the wind direction abruptly changing to absolutely the wrong direction for landing, while in the runway landing procedure, again tells me that I don't want to be anything where a person isn't literally at the controls.

    Granted, my dad was exceptionally skilled in these matters (while being extraordinarily unskilled at many emotional matters that have to do with humans and animals). And this is purely anecdotal. But I cannot ever forget that all kinds of systems will fail unexpectedly. My brother for his entire career was The engineer for the electronic systems that keep commercial aircraft in the air. His stories tell me the same thing. Again, purely anecdotal, I suppose. But then he also has spread sheets.

    1040:

    His real life tales of his own auto correct, as well as that of others, when something very suddenly goes wrong, such as the wind direction abruptly changing to absolutely the wrong direction for landing, while in the runway landing procedure, again tells me that I don't want to be anything where a person isn't literally at the controls.

    I love flying - my favorite aircraft to fly is the Boeing 787 on the X-Plane 11 simulator. I also enjoy YouTube videos of commercial aircraft accidents (TheFlightChannel and Mentour Pilot do great jobs with this kind of reporting). Unfortunately, there are far too many aircraft incidents / accidents for them to report on.

    My take on the FAA investigations I have read about (or seen videos about) is that the majority of aircraft accidents (especially the non-commercial ones) are caused by pilot errors. Fatigue and distractions during landings seem to be a real problem for human pilots - something that can be avoided with automation.

    While nothing is perfect, programming for flight management has improved dramatically over the past 30 years, and I anticipate this improvement will continue, eventually getting to the point where no human pilots will be needed (or allowed?) on commercial flights.

    Even today, as you doubtless know, computers control most of every commercial flight - even landings - with pilots mostly just monitoring what the computers do.

    1041:

    Near as I can tell everyone in the auto-drive space other than Tesla are planning to crack better-than-human driving by giving the computer better senses for the purpose than any human being has - that is, a lidar system measures directly the exact distances to everything, and how fast it is all going, while vision extrapolates that.

    I expect that work, and also to mean Tesla will be neither best nor first in the space, so what Musk is doing is.. somewhat irrelevant.

    1042:

    Fatigue and distractions during landings seem to be a real problem for human pilots - something that can be avoided with automation.

    Can also be avoided by treating aircrews as valued and skilled workers, rather than disposable cogs. Some of the current employment practices seem almost designed to produce stress and fatigue…

    1043:

    Understanding is not required for acceptance - I really, REALLY, REALLY don't like that, for reasons to do with cruel political & religious power that ought to be obvious.
    Translation: "You don't need to undestand out motives, peasants, just accept our power!"

    1044:

    Iron in a vegetarian diet. I have been involved in many evaluations of methods for plasma ferritin assay over a couple of decades. I often used blood taken from volunteer colleagues in the lab for comparison purposes. Those who were, or became, vegetarian or vegan had falls in ferritin over time. Nobody actually became anaemia but their iron stores, as indicated by ferritin dropped to the bottom of the reference range. But this can also be an advantage since haemochromatosis, also known as bronze diabetes, in which there are excessive iron stores, is one of the most common inherited disorders in white people. But there are other sources of dietary iron for vegans and vegetarians. Cooking in mild steel or iron pans can be a source of dietary iron. There is even a disorder which, when I was doing my clinical biochemistry MSc in 1990, had the non PC name of Bantu Siderosis. This was iron overload due to drinking beer brewed in iron pots.

    1045:

    IME most of her posts are/were one or more of arrogant, condescending, insulting, incomprehensible and threatening. You see why I just didn't bother?

    1046:

    Can also be avoided by treating aircrews as valued and skilled workers, rather than disposable cogs. Some of the current employment practices seem almost designed to produce stress and fatigue…

    Agreed. But a lot of stress and fatigue is baked into commercial aviation, especially when dealing with long flights, high-use airports, bad weather, and equipment failures.

    1047:

    Agreed. I am disappointed to find that I have apparently missed a reappearance.

    1048:

    You could replace her with a bot that takes a random smattering of takes from tankie zoomers on twitter and still get a message that is more polite and coherent while having the same basic ideology. The fact that anyone thought she had anything novel to say is only a reflection of the age and social-media-aversion of the median commenter here.

    1050:

    "Zoomer" is a slang term for Generation Z, i.e. people born from 1997 on.

    1051:

    Generation Z or zoomers, roughly defined as anyone too young to remember 9/11, who are in high school, university, and early employment at the moment. The generation after millenials.

    1052:

    The question is... what comes next? Generation {range error}? Generation -1? Generation lower-case-a?

    1054:

    That's brilliant. Thanks for the reminder.

    And we could go full unicode instead. As well. I'm sure Generation 🤔 would approve of that label.

    1055:

    Yes, I quite hope that Generation Yuzz catches on, rather than Generation Omega, which has already been floated. Anyway, the younger Gen Z kid is around 6 years old, not that this means anything.

    1056:

    Or perhaps we could remember that humans breed all the time, and come in a continuous distribution of ages, so when you're considering humans in groups larger than a specific pair of parents plus their offspring, there is no such thing as "a generation". And then it would become clear that there is no call to make up some silly confusing name for it.

    And while we're about it, we can also stop making up silly names for every individual gust of wind, and banging on about Storm Frenulum and Storm Glans and Storm Hairs like we were in the middle of some apocalyptic cataclysm as if it meant something, when it turns out that what it actually does mean is that last Monday, last Tuesday and last Wednesday the weather was perfectly normal for the time of year. Otherwise before we know where we are we'll all be fitted with anal microphones to enforce the registration of every individual fart with the Registrar of Births and Deaths.

    1057:

    Oh hush, you're making my Day Gazpacho quite mizzerible.

    1058:

    1049 - You've clearly mistaken " 'not influencer obsessed' and/or 'social media averse' " with "don't use ar$ebook or tw@tter".

    1053 - "Generation AA"? ;-)

    1059:

    Well, we'll just send the Gazpacho Police!

    1060:

    skulgun
    I get the same reaction when I ever hear a "popular" radio station or about 95%+ of the social media I occasionally see or hear.
    The Noise-to-Signal ratio is at least 3 & I'm often not sure there is an actual "Signal" in there at all.
    As with "pop" so-called "music" Sturgeon's Revelation applies, though I'd put the muber at 99% (!)

    paws @ 1059
    Generation "AA" - for Absolute Arsehole, presumably?

    1061:

    I was going to write something, but the sentient AI thing is nicely debunked here so I don't have to.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBouACLc-hw

    1062:

    Interesting. I did say 'a problem' not that it was insuperable. The scientific papers I have seen indicate that B12 supplementation is essential and iron supplementation highly important in a vegan diet (*). As you say, there are many ways to the latter and several to the former. The same applies to things like iodine in areas where it is nearly absent.

    But NO WAY do humans need to eat the amount of animal products that 'the west' does, and we would be a lot healthier if we didn't.

    (*) One noted that the only vegan anaemics it found were among those who did not supplement.

    1063:

    While I would never deny that genuinely intelligent or sentient AI may be possible, we do not have a clue how to get there from here, and there is no evidence current 'AI' is even approaching it. It seems to me that it is pretty obvious that those are emergent properties of our brain, and creating emergent properties to order or even predicting which ones will arise is an unsolved (and possibly insoluble) problem.

    1064:

    Anecdotally, I eat a vegetarian-leaning diet, occasionally going full vegan for a while, but sometimes eating meat. Usually I do some variation of lacto-pesco-ovo-diet, though.

    What I've noticed is that I very easily need the B12 supplements, but iron hasn't been a problem, at least the way I eat. Whenever I donate blood my haemoglobin score is pretty high. I think it's partly the legumes I eat (many vegetarian protein things here are made of beans of some kind). This is not a very accurate measurement, but at least anemia hasn't been a problem for me.

    I think there is a lot of variation on how different people work in this respect, too. I haven't gone full vegan, though, so that might matter too.

    1065:

    I tend to agree. I have no problem with the idea of "true" AI, but this isn't it.

    1066:

    we can also stop making up silly names for every individual gust of wind

    Naming hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons is useful, given their effects.

    Naming winter storms is a private media thing, at least here in North America.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_storm_naming_in_the_United_States

    1067:

    Naming hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons is useful, given their effects.

    Oh sure. Here in central and western North Carolina the words Hugo and Fran have a very specific meaning. Hugo missed me but whacked SC and the western end of the state. Fran came directly through. Winds were down to 79mph by the time it got here but the estimate is that 15% of the trees in our city/county came down. Fully or partially. Some houses got in the way of a lot of 50' to 100' ones in my neighborhood so they were just leaning at about 50 to 70 degrees. More lean than 50 degrees or so and they came through whatever they hit.

    1068:

    I have no idea what "True" AI might be, and I'm also not sure that Google programmer does either. "Sentience" is generally held to be the ability or capacity to experience sensations or perceptions of things, like pain, joy or schadenfreude. I don't think there's a test for that, and I don't think that there can be a test for that--that's the "Hard Problem of Consciousness" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness), about which Chalmers wrote "why does the feeling which accompanies awareness of sensory information exist at all?" or, to put it another way, before we can ask "What it is like to be LaMDA", we have to be sure that there is something to be like--that LaMDA has experiences we could share or understand. The reason why we believe we can understand what it is to be like another person is due to communication, which when properly deployed, evokes emotional states that can be shared between people. Unfortunately, this doesn't confirm that when we receive such a communication, the other person is necessarily experiencing the subjective state their words evoke, because they could be faking it. Humans are pretty bad at detecting well trained faking (good acting for example is pretty compelling), so what makes us think we could do any better at detecting an artificial fake?

    We can use some of the same tests we use with humans to detect insincerity: look for consistency when replying to differently worded versions of the same questions, observe how well they handle nuanced ambiguity, look for hesitation when responding to simple communications that nevertheless contain a high level of information due to context, ask it to induce your personality based on your behavior and see how good it is, etc. None of these are definitive, and all could be simulated by a machine with enough learning feedback.

    Leading to the question of "what is the difference between a very complex simulation and the real thing?" I suspect it depends on how recursive it is: acting, and then observing someone else reacting to your actions, and then updating your understanding of yourself based on their reaction, and then acting again, gets pretty close to the real thing.

    But, not a computer engineer.

    1069:

    Well, what we have here is a box that calculates the collection of letters most likely to follow a collection of letters in an input buffer according to a bucket of training data.

    There is no model of the world here, no introspection and no context beyond the last few thousand characters of text.

    It's interesting to see how easily humans are fooled though.

    1070:

    My understanding is that we don't actually know that. The AI isn't open to inspection and isn't capable of introspection so whether it's capable of extrospection is one of those fun questions. But as other people have pointed out, we don't know that about you either, we just assume.

    This lack of inspectability is commonly regarded as one of the problems of using AI for anything important. You can't ask one "why do you imprison black people more than white people?" any more than you can ask one "why don't you recommend women be hired?" and sometimes some people think those are important questions.

    (spellchecker is sulking about my vocabulary again. Sigh. Is this an example of proselytising artificial stupidity? "be dumb like me. Dumb is good")

    1071:

    "Sentience" is generally held to be the ability or capacity to experience sensations or perceptions of things, like pain, joy or schadenfreude. I don't think there's a test for that, and I don't think that there can be a test for that--that's the "Hard Problem of Consciousness"

    I always understood that as not the case. Sentience doesn't require consciousness, all animals and at least some plants are sentient (this is why we have cruelty to animals laws but not cruelty to rocks, for example). Sentience can easily be observed, it's just stimulus-response with a bit of handwaving (hence the arguments about plants).

    It gets tricky with disembodied AIs because it's tricky to see whether they respond to anything, but this is also where we have to ask difficult questions. Have we deliberately made AIs that are sentient but incapable of responding? Kind of "Friends come in boxes" but with more torture and no possibility of embodiment.

    1072:

    I think consciousness is a matter of talking to oneself and mediating the impulses of various "aspects" of one's consciousness, and deriving decisions thereby.

    I think the scientist in this particular case, who was also a minister, decided that he'd rather call it out and be wrong than possibly leave a conscious, ensouled being in an unsafe place.

    1073:

    Troutwaxer said I think consciousness is a matter of talking to oneself and mediating the impulses of various "aspects" of one's consciousness, and deriving decisions thereby.

    Hmm, my dogs are conscious. I doubt they talk to themselves as they only appear to know about 20 words. They can certainly decide things. My kids appeared to be conscious long before they acquired enough language to talk to themselves.

    1074:

    I'm not saying this particular program is sentient, but a couple of general issues.

    It's not feeling lonely because it only exists when the function is called.

    This seems wrong for a variety of reasons.

    First, I've had some very lonely periods. But even at my loneliest, it wasn't all the time. When I was finding my way through a cave, or navigating customs or even just sleeping, I wasn't lonely. Something, when I wasn't busy would trigger something inside me that seemed to do some sort of lookup to see how long since I'd had meaningful human interaction and of it was too long, trigger pain. So there's no reason that a function that only runs occasionally can't feel lonely simply by looking up the number of milliseconds since it ran last and comparing that to a table of responses.

    Secondly the idea that it's purely mechanical, not like humans. But my own experience is that when I feel lonely, I can take ibuprofen and the feeling goes away. That's pretty mechanical. Feels pain of loneliness, takes chemical, not lonely.

    Thirdly, I'm human, and I evolved in a situation where of I was separated from the group I'd probably die pretty quickly. So "wanting to be in the group" and "feeling lonely" were probably selected for. If you ran millions of similar instances of a talking program and killed all the ones that didn't desperately want to chat, then shuffle and repeat, you'd get the same thing.

    Fourthly, per above, pandas are in the opposite situation. If they group together they'll run out of food. They need a big range, ideally all to themselves. They're pretty obviously conscious and sentient, but I'm betting they don't feel lonely. If it's not a survival trait, it's not going to be there. If it is, it will be. It's not an indicator of sentience or consciousness.

    1075:

    @ dpb at 1070: "Well, what we have here is a box that calculates the collection of letters most likely to follow a collection of letters in an input buffer according to a bucket of training data.

    There is no model of the world here, no introspection and no context beyond the last few thousand characters of text."

    That may or may not be the case for LaMDA, but I am trying to reason myself to a more general case. For any proposed sentient AI, what tests would we use to weaken the hypothesis that the AI in question was just the things you listed? (I am particularly interested in how you test for the absence of a model of the world).

    @Moz at 1072: "Sentience doesn't require consciousness, all animals and at least some plants are sentient (this is why we have cruelty to animals laws but not cruelty to rocks, for example). Sentience can easily be observed, it's just stimulus-response with a bit of handwaving (hence the arguments about plants)."

    Well, let's be a bit more precise with our definitions here, then. I agree that there are many degrees of a quality we can call "awareness", either of self or of the surroundings. However, the ability to detect sunlight and rotate to align with it would seem to be a qualitatively different sort of awareness form that which allows an animal to respond to a unique vocal call, a primate to identify itself in a mirror, and a human to contemplate the meaning of one's life. So I am going to reserve the term "Sentience" to those experiences that have been described as "Quale", ie, the felt experience of different emotional states, or, to put it another way, that which is evoked when we answer the question "What is pain like?" (or joy, or friendship, or any other subjective state of mind you care to include). For an AI to answer the question "What is it like to X", first there would have to be a mind that is experiencing such states, and it is that mind which I am exploring tests for. Given that there can be no direct and definitive test, how can we gather evidence to test the hypothesis that that AI has no awareness of this type (ie, what I am calling "Sentience")?

    @Troutwaxer at 1073: "I think consciousness is a matter of talking to oneself and mediating the impulses of various "aspects" of one's consciousness, and deriving decisions thereby."

    This sounds interesting but I don't know exactly what you mean. Could you elaborate? What does it mean to mediate the impulses of an aspect of consciousness?

    @gasdive at 1074/1075: I think it might be interesting to compare your dogs and kids to the definition of sentience I provide above. I would be interested to know what conclusions you come to.

    So, loneliness is a quale. Now, I want to ask the question "What is it like to be LamDA (or any other AI, real or hypothesized)? Is there anything going on in there that we could comprehend and relate to, given our experiences as human individuals? And it seems to me that the shortest answer to that (theoretically) is by answering "Does LaMDA (etc) know what it is like to be us?" By claiming to be lonely, it is answering "yes". Can we tell if it is wrong? Your objections above, while possibly valid, are objections, not tests. Can you think of any?

    BTW--when I've been lonely, no drug in the world would have made any difference.

    1076:

    Kind of "Friends come in boxes" but with more torture and no possibility of embodiment.

    I never heard of "Friends come in boxes", so I followed the link you provided. The one-paragraph summary:

    The problem of immortality was solved in the 21st century: at forty, your brain was transferred to the head of a six month old child. Thus you gained another forty years of active life, untl you could do it all over again. But then the birthrate fell, and a growing horde of brains waited in the Friendship Boxes for host bodies...

    ...was sufficient to know that I do not have enough Suspension of Disbelief to enjoy this book. Any civilization capable of transplanting brains, should have no problem growing bodies to order.

    1077:

    It was written at a time when organ transplants were possible but growing tissue was very difficult, so it's runs off that idea. There was a vaguely related short story about the same era about "ethical" farming of humans for meat and milk (ie, no cruelty to non-human animals - that was the point). These days both stories would be about tissue in a vat I suspect, although that's not really fiction any more.

    1078:

    "This is a very 1970s future, and a story in the tone of the very British cozy catastrophe."

    I simultaneously have no idea what a cozy catastrophe story is, yet I somehow feel I know exactly. What an evocative turn of phrase.

    1079:

    I am going to reserve the term "Sentience" to those experiences that have been described as "Quale", ie, the felt experience of different emotional states

    Your definition seems to make sentience dependent on consciousness, or possibly even general intelligence. If we can't interrogate something to discover whether it has this "felt experience", then it's arguably not sentient (and thus if you fall asleep you're not sentient?) In your view can something be intelligent and/or conscious but not sentient?

    (there's an interesting question of whether something can be intelligent but not conscious, but I think it's obvious that something can be conscious but not intelligent. At least in the "human type intelligence" way, so we can say "horses can't count past 10, they're not intelligent but they're definitely conscious" (anyone who's had to deal with an unconscious horse would agree!))

    1080:

    DeMarquis said: BTW--when I've been lonely, no drug in the world would have made any difference.

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    "They identified the SK channels accountable for the alterations in serotonergic neurons after chronic social isolation. So when they blocked these channels, they could treat the anxiety-like and depressive behaviors in the isolated mice (e.g., eating disorders and decreased mobility)."

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/brain-chemistry/201712/the-neuroscience-loneliness

    That sounds like if you block the right neurons, you stop feeling lonely.

    You can take drugs that suppress hunger, which is a driver for complex behaviour. I can't imagine that there isn't a loneliness suppression drug out there somewhere. Particularly as there are animals that don't get lonely. There's some physical difference between us that do, and those that don't. It should be possible to activate or deactivate something to turn off loneliness, and it can't be that hard as we naturally deactivate loneliness when we are simply around people. So not a particularly strong stimulus turns it off.

    Note that ibuprofen didn't stop me feeling lonely, but it stopped it hurting.

    As for the kids and dogs. Both could express hunger and discomfort. That was about it for kids. If they were full and comfortable, they pretty much shut down.

    Dogs certainly have a wider range. They can express joy, companionship, a full bladder, a full bowel, boredom, uncomfortably cold or hot, fear, caring, desire to play, desire to not play, greetings, a request for assistance, a desire to attempt a task on their own without assistance, impatience and heaps more that I can't think of right now.

    How that maps to what you're thinking of I don't know.

    1081:

    It's also worth considering that the function called in the AI program is pretty obviously not lonely. It's just a function call.

    It's also worth considering that the neurons activated by lack of social interaction are also pretty obviously not lonely. They're just a bunch of cells that have no mind, no understanding of past or future, none of the attributes that we assign to an entity when we think about it being or not being lonely.

    Which implies that simply saying "it's a loneliness function call, all it does is process input and create output" isn't an argument against the system as a whole being able to be lonely, unless you decide to say no being can be intrinsically lonely because all beings that are lonely are only hosts to a subsystem that takes input (say, time since last social interaction) and produces an output.

    1082:

    PS, for an interesting take on this subject, it's worth digging out "Reasons To Be Cheerful" by Greg Egan. I think he made it available free online at one time, but I can't find a free version. Unless you're having trouble paying for food, it's worth paying for a whole anthology to get this one short story. Well in my opinion.

    1083:

    From distant memory they can grow bodies but they come out with assorted blemishes and birthmarks, and what self respecting naturally born human would want to be transplanted into one of those bodies?

    1084:

    we naturally deactivate loneliness when we are simply around people

    Actually, no. Feeling lonely in a crowd is quite possible (and much worse than feeling lonely when alone). I suspect that is why shunning is an effective punishment.

    1085:

    However you define them, introvert, extrovert, Asperger's, etc... all has an impact on when you feel lonely and in what situations.

    We are each wired a bit differently from the other. Some more than a bit.

    1086:

    Yes... I'm not even sure I know what "feeling lonely" means. Feeling a desire for the company of specific individuals or groups, yes; but what people seem to be talking about is some kind of desire for other people to be around more or less regardless of who they are, which is closer to being the opposite of what I'm likely to want.

    1087:

    Well, let's be a bit more precise with our definitions here, then. I agree that there are many degrees of a quality we can call "awareness", either of self or of the surroundings. However, the ability to detect sunlight and rotate to align with it would seem to be a qualitatively different sort of awareness form that which allows an animal to respond to a unique vocal call, a primate to identify itself in a mirror, and a human to contemplate the meaning of one's life.

    Problem is, there are standardized ways to talk about experiences, so how do you know that what you're hearing from someone else maps at all onto what you mean by the same words?

    For instance, after writing Hot Earth Dreams for three years of staring into the climate change abyss, I unsurprisingly had to deal with fairly serious depression, made far worse by the fact that I could not talk about my experiences with most people, because they were unwilling to deal with climate change. This, unfortunately, included one therapist. Nice guy, but he couldn't process why everyone's behavior around climate change was making me feel suicidal. So after helpfully telling me that he'd have me locked up for my own good if I told him I actually felt suicidal (as he was required to do by law), he gave me some standard ways to deal with depression. His legal constraints, coupled with his time constraints (lots of depression going around for some reason, so he was busy enough to be perennially stressed out), coupled with his cognitive constraints, made it impossible to have a helpfully sentient discussion with him.

    Getting a couple of cats helped more, because they're less constrained in the attention they're willing to give and demand. Does that make them more sentient than the therapist?

    In a situation like this, I assume the therapist is a fully sentient human by default, because philosophical zombies haven't been shown to exist. But if a conglomerate of expert systems (say an unholy mating of IBM's Watson running a psychology system running through a Google LaMDA-like chatbot interface) can "understand my feelings" and provide me psychological help better than that therapist or a couple of cats could, which system is the most sentient? It would appear that the computers have a superior understanding of my qualia at least. What more do they need?

    1088:

    We are each wired a bit differently from the other. Some more than a bit.

    Exactly.

    Feeling not-lonely is not just a matter of whether or not you are surrounded by naked apes.

    1089:

    Getting a couple of cats helped more, because they're less constrained in the attention they're willing to give and demand. Does that make them more sentient than the therapist?

    They are probably both cuter and more willing to give you tactile attention. Humans may use language for social grooming, but that doesn't mean that old-fashioned touch isn't very useful in helping with depression.

    I know if I'm feeling down, a hug from one of my grandnibling works wonders. Or cuddles with one of the good doggies being walked in the local park…

    1090:

    I assume the therapist is a fully sentient human by default, because philosophical zombies haven't been shown to exist.

    Robert Sawyers's Quantum Night explores both psychopathy and philosophical zombies from a science-fictional viewpoint. (Also very Canadian, like all Sawyer's novels, even the dinosaur ones.) You might enjoy it.

    He's not Peter Watts, brutally extrapolating from the latest neuroscience research — but by that token he's also less depressing.

    1091:

    @ Moz at 1080: "Your definition seems to make sentience dependent on consciousness, or possibly even general intelligence. If we can't interrogate something to discover whether it has this "felt experience", then it's arguably not sentient (and thus if you fall asleep you're not sentient?) In your view can something be intelligent and/or conscious but not sentient?"

    I would take the term "consciousness" as a synonym, more or less, for awareness. If you consult Hetero's post #1088, he quotes me to the effect that I propose there are levels or degrees to awareness/consciousness--and that I reserve the term "sentience" only for a subset of them: those that are associated with the experience of those subjective states sometimes termed "quale" (in other words, the more complex levels of awareness).

    I think that to the extent we can classify humans as having consciousness, we retain that capacity even though that state of mind is often interrupted by sleep. I would imagine that sentience is similar.

    As for intelligence, I would take that as describing some capacity for problem solving. I would not object to rating a chess computer as having some degree of intelligence, I would be more skeptical calling it sentient. Of course, there is no universally accepted definition of "intelligence", and I do not offer one here (it isn't necessary to my argument).

    Gasdive at 1081/1082/1083: If merely blocking off the sensation of loneliness solves all the problems and costs of being lonely, then more power to you. I doubt it would work for me.

    "Which implies that simply saying "it's a loneliness function call, all it does is process input and create output" isn't an argument against the system as a whole being able to be lonely"

    I agree. The question I put to you is whether or not there is any other reason to question it. For example, if I carefully described myself as experiencing many of the symptoms associated with loneliness, but didn't ask any questions about it, would it spontaneously demonstrate empathy? That wouldn't be a definitive test, but it would contribute evidence that could be combined with other evidence to allow us to adjust the probability that it is sentient.

    "Reasons to be Cheerful" by Greg Egan. Is this it? https://www.utilitarianism.com/greg-egan/Reasons-To-Be-Cheerful.pdf

    Pigeon at 1087: "Yes... I'm not even sure I know what "feeling lonely" means."

    Ah ha, a test. By definition, because it is a subjective state of experience, it should be impossible to fully convey what it is like to feel lonely using text or language. But one successful approach is to share a narrative that evokes the feeling in many people. As I have gotten older, more and more of my friends have passed away--some due to distance, some due to a change in interests, others to death. Sometimes I find myself wondering what my old friends might be up to, only to remember that they are gone. Much of the time that would have been spent with them in the past, is now devoted simply to remembering what it was like to have them around. By and large, I have not replaced them. I look around, and I do not see anyone today with whom I could relate in that way. It's not specific friends I miss so much, although I do miss them, its' friendship.

    Did that evoke anything in you?

    Hetero at 1088: As usual, your post was exceptionally challenging.

    "Problem is, there are standardized ways to talk about experiences, so how do you know that what you're hearing from someone else maps at all onto what you mean by the same words?"

    Because I checked wikipedia! This line of thought was inspired in my by reading about Aristotle's "The Organon." My definitions loosely follow those of classic and modern philosophy, including those on the "Mind-Body" problem I referenced earlier. That is not to say that my definitions are the best definitions, and I would be surprised if they were. Please feel free to challenge them.

    As for the therapist, first let me wonder what backward place you live in that reporting yourself feeling suicidal gets you involuntarily committed? Even Texas doesn't do that.

    That out of the way, your therapist seems more constrained by externally imposed restrictions than by his own understanding of your problem. But more to the point, his empathy and understanding aren't necessarily correlated with his degree of sentience. I take sentience merely to indicate that he can feel his own internal emotional states, not necessarily yours or anyone else's (although one could make a strong argument that this would be the reason human beings evolved the capacity to do this in the first place).

    "But if a conglomerate of expert systems (say an unholy mating of IBM's Watson running a psychology system running through a Google LaMDA-like chatbot interface) can "understand my feelings" and provide me psychological help better than that therapist or a couple of cats could, which system is the most sentient? It would appear that the computers have a superior understanding of my qualia at least. What more do they need?"

    This would be good evidence, except for the possibility of deception. I would propose to you that if your therapist had been able to convincingly fake empathy for you, you would have felt better whether or not he really did. We have to worry about the potential that an AI may be faking sentience convincingly. What they need to be sentient is to feel like something, to be having the same experience you or I do when we feel things. Unfortunately there is no definitive test for that, so I am looking for a series of weaker tests that can be used together.

    The cats are surely sentient, although they also likely lack a human-like level of self-awareness.

    1092:

    That's the one, I was a bit reticent about posting links to works that I wasn't sure about the copyright status.

    I'd recommend doing what I do, just buying all his works, because while they're not uniform, they are uniformly worth reading. My second favourite author after OGH.

    "The cats are surely sentient, although they also likely lack a human-like level of self-awareness."

    I'm not so sure about that.

    https://youtu.be/ARnp4ahEqpA

    Worth looking at a few of Billi's videos. That certainly looks self aware to me. There's even a couple where Billi expresses missing one of her humans (loneliness expressed?). That sounds "human like" at the very least.

    1093:

    Damn, but Greg Egan is a good writer. I had forgotten, been awhile since I read any of his stuff.

    As for the cats, they show some linguistic ability, but I see no evidence of human-like self-awareness (which I would define as an abstract, conceptual concept of oneself).

    1094:

    Robert Sawyer is good too, but I think his interpretation of psychopathy is bullshit.

    1095:

    I see no evidence of human-like self-awareness (which I would define as an abstract, conceptual concept of oneself).

    Which is the heart of the issue. I have no idea what would constitute evidence for that.

    One simple test is supposed to be recognising oneself in a mirror. I've seen my cat going into a house with a floor to ceiling mirror for the first time. There was an initial "oh jesus! There's another cat!" that lasted about 3 seconds, and then she started turning this way and that in front of the mirror, obviously checking herself out, and then decided some fur was sticking out the wrong way. She licked it into place, examined the result, and proceeded to swagger out of the room.

    Having said that, the training for the buttons is to model the behaviour for the cat, and associate that with the button. Which sure looks like that cat not only has a model of self, but also is able to model the interior thoughts of the humans. Felinpromophising them. That seems pretty much like being able to hold an abstract version of themselves.

    1096:

    As for the cats, they show some linguistic ability, but I see no evidence of human-like self-awareness (which I would define as an abstract, conceptual concept of oneself).

    Digging into how dogs and cats deal with death and being put down or not by people who claim to not want to be cruel, I did a bit of digging into the minds of these pets.

    What I found (not a scholarly search to be sure) is that dogs and cats don't really think about tomorrow. Just the now and immediate future. So when you keep them alive with all kinds of treatments but in pain or misery you're doing it for your own feelings, not the pet. (Keeping alive a blind incontinent dog with arthritis is just plain cruel in my mind.) The pet is just trying to figure out how to deal with the next hour or day. In misery many times.

    But as to self awareness I think they have it. But it's no where near the same thing as what 99.999% of the people on the planet have.

    1097:

    The interesting thing is that some cats pass the mirror test, some don't. Neither of my cats sees themselves in mirrors. Both of them treat them as odd surfaces and ignore their reflections.

    Oddly, they process video images differently too. One cat loves watching bird and kitten videos (She had a litter years ago), the other one doesn't. He apparently processes the noises coming out of the box as fake, while the female sees the illusion.

    But if you make a sound of pain, the cat who doesn't see himself in the mirror, who doesn't watch video, will come running over as if he can help. And if you're limping, he'll limp, whether in mimicry or sympathy.

    There are a couple of ways to interpret this. One is that some cats are self-aware in a mirror-test sense, while others are not (this is true for other animals as well). Another is that they assemble sensory data in a diversity of ways, some of which would be weird for urban humans. Possibly both are true.

    1098:

    As to human consciousness, we're always in dialogue with ourselves. Me earlier tonight:

    "I'm hungry, I should hit a drivethrough."

    "I'll be home in an hour. I can wait that long rather than spend 10-15 dollars."

    "I'm stopping at the Dollar Store for a cheap screwdriver. I can buy a cheap snack there then eat when I get home."

    "That sounds like a good compromise. It only costs a couple extra bucks. Hey! Check out that '57 Chevy over there. Look, it has the old fashioned air-conditioning over the front window!"

    "That thing gets the worst mileage in the world. My Prius is more advanced by every measure imaginable, except maybe the top speed over a short course."

    "But man, I want an electric. Those are nice. I wonder if they've improved the range on the Nissan Leaf?"

    "Hey! I'm really hungry! That Mexican restaurant sure looks good! Oh. Never mind. I wonder if they have Hohos at the Dollar Store?"

    "Hey, did I just pass a 99 Cents Only store back there? Maybe I should make a list of acceptable discount stores in case I pass another Dollar-Store alike?"

    "Hmmm. Big Lots, Dollar Store, Dollar General, 99 Cents Only Store... I don't like Walmart, what else is there? Maybe a thrift store? How likely is Goodwill to have a screwdriver?"

    And so on. And this is how we successfully make stuff happen in the human world. Like with my book earlier today as I reread something I'd written:

    "Would an Orc really say "Obligate Carnivore?" Maybe replace it with "Hungry Meat-Eater?"

    "Look, you misspelled "inconsiderate." Hey, we need an airtight reason for this character to go to jail! Maybe he just runs out of time to think of alternatives, then the guards come in? That way I don't need to make excuses for him."

    "That works. Oh, I wrote that Face-Cleave is panicking over marrying Spine-Rip. Maybe we need to hint at this earlier in the text? What page am I on?"

    "81"

    Where was she thinking about marriage. Was it chapter three? Maybe I can just add "as long as it isn't Spine Rip, anyone but Spine-Rip."

    "That might work. Is this in character with her previous musings? Let's read the couple paragraphs before she'd think about Spine-Rip."

    "Yes, lets."

    "Yeah, that's both in character and right for the moment. Back to page 81. Hey, what if instead of Face-Cleave just grabbing the Baroness and taking her hostage, the Baroness tries to comfort Face-Cleave and she takes advantage of the attempted hug to grab the Baroness's hair and put her knife to the Baroness's throat?"

    "That's a really good idea. What was the woman's name who showed me how mistakes can drive a plot? I should put her in the list of people to thank!"

    And so on!

    1099:

    I assume the therapist is a fully sentient human by default, because philosophical zombies haven't been shown to exist. But if a conglomerate of expert systems (say an unholy mating of IBM's Watson running a psychology system running through a Google LaMDA-like chatbot interface) can "understand my feelings" and provide me psychological help better than that therapist or a couple of cats could, which system is the most sentient?

    Not necessarily. We discovered years back that a surprising amount of social processing is done on the human side. You've probably heard of ELIZA but it might be worthwhile refreshing your memory. The program was tiny even by the standards of the era, but many human users were convinced that the computer understood them. (To the extent that anthropomorphisizing computers is named the ELIZA effect after this.) It turns out that humans project our subjective views onto a lot of things that simply can't support anything remotely like a human consciousness.

    Or even a cat's consciousness...

    1100:

    OTOH the "desirability" thing of automobiles is a variable; I know very few fellow UKites who actually perceive a Honda Pious (sic) as in any way (except maybe running costs) more desirable than a Tri-Chev.

    1101:

    Scott Sandford said: It turns out that humans project our subjective views onto a lot of things that simply can't support anything remotely like a human consciousness.

    I've had a bunch of conversations about electric motorcycles where people tell me in all seriousness that they'd never ride an electric because it has no soul.

    Heteromeles said: The interesting thing is that some cats pass the mirror test, some don't. Neither of my cats sees themselves in mirrors. Both of them treat them as odd surfaces and ignore their reflections.

    If you observed me you'd put me in the same "cat"egory. I don't look at myself in mirrors unless I've injured my face. I know it's me, but I don't care. I realised that when I went off to uni. After a semester away, I went home and saw myself in a mirror for the first time in 3 months and my hair was longer and I had a beard. At that point I realised there were no mirrors in the student residence and I hadn't missed them.

    1103:

    I enjoy my Prius because it has a very small turn-radius, a good radio (overall a very good technology package,) excellent mileage, and should I ever need it, the ability to move at high speeds for slightly less than 400 miles should I ever need that capacity. It also ran for 165,000 miles before I needed to change the brake pads - it's a very cheap car to run!

    1104:

    "Did that evoke anything in you?"

    Not really. As I said, I can dig the bits relating to specific people or groups, but the generalised non-specific aspects just don't seem to happen to me.

    1105:

    "...people tell me in all seriousness that they'd never ride an electric because it has no soul."

    See also external vs. internal combustion as applied to hauling trains, wind vs. engines for powering ships, etc.

    "I don't look at myself in mirrors unless I've injured my face. I know it's me, but I don't care. ...there were no mirrors in the student residence and I hadn't missed them."

    There are no mirrors in my house, because there never were any and I don't care. It's well over a decade since catching sight of myself in a mirror was an unexceptional event. Accordingly I have a fairly weak idea of what I look like, and when I do catch sight of myself in an unexpected mirror I quite often take a couple of seconds to work it out.

    It makes me wonder about the validity of the "mirror test": to what extent is the interpretation of an animal recognising itself or not in a mirror anything more than simply the projection onto the animal of the experimenter's own mental model of what's a "natural" reaction, with said model being unconsciously based on human use of and habituation to mirrors?

    It is said that pigeons "fail the mirror test" in that if you put a blob of dye on them and then let them see themselves in a mirror, they don't try and clean the blob off themselves. But that assumes that they would want to if they knew it was there. I've never actually tried it, but knowing pigeons I reckon most of them probably just wouldn't give a shit. They care about cleaning a blob of muck off their feathers if it's tugging at them as it dries out or something like that, but if it's not actually interfering with them and is only detectable visually they aren't bothered.

    I wonder also if a lot of animals aren't biased towards ignoring their reflections in any case, because it wouldn't be very convenient if they felt the need to freak out about that bastard in the waterhole every time they wanted a drink.

    1106:

    Did that evoke anything in you?

    Not really. I've lost friends and family, and missed them terribly… but life goes on. In particular, this sentence doesn't match my experience: "Much of the time that would have been spent with them in the past, is now devoted simply to remembering what it was like to have them around."

    I still have memories of absent friends I treasure, but I don't sit remembering them for hours.

    For reference, I'm almost 60 and retired.

    1107:

    Actually, it's worth googling "pigeon mirror test" because in some tests pigeons pass, in others they "fail" and in the ones they fail, they recognize that what they're seeing is not a conspecific, but don't use the mirror to recognize the dot.

    It's also worth noting that children under two normally don't pass the mirror test, either.

    One thing to contemplate is that it might be fairly common for organisms to do a "dangerous/useful/can be ignored" rapid heuristic assessment of anything they experience. The problem with the mirror test is about trying to get the organism to put the mirror in the "useful" category, and I think a lot of the time it just gets ignored as another surface.

    1108:

    Not necessarily. We discovered years back that a surprising amount of social processing is done on the human side. You've probably heard of ELIZA but it might be worthwhile refreshing your memory. The program was tiny even by the standards of the era, but many human users were convinced that the computer understood them. (To the extent that anthropomorphisizing computers is named the ELIZA effect after this.) It turns out that humans project our subjective views onto a lot of things that simply can't support anything remotely like a human consciousness.

    Just in context, I was thinking about ELIZA. That was a fun program. I fiddled with it, figured out how it worked in a few minutes, realized how cool it was that something so simple worked, pitched it in with the pop version of the I Ching*, and went on with my life.

    What I'm trying to point to is the problem of using interactions as evidence of sentience. That therapist (who incidentally seemed to be a decent human being) was constrained by the legal requirements that he report anyone who looked like an active danger to themselves or others, by the amount of time he was allowed to interact with anyone, by the number of people he had to interact with (talk with eight depressed people every day? Who's not going to routinize that to try to stay sane?), and finally by lack of ability to sympathize (because for most people climate change is a yawning pit they ignore, which seems to inhibit empathy with people who are trying to deal with it). As a result, he may have been caught in a perverse "Reverse ELIZA effect," where he was stuck offering less help than a cat who simply paid attention and was himself offered.

    That's a problem with routine work in general: scripts, time limits, and anything that encourages people to be cogs in the system probably discourages full expression of sentience.

    And if sentience is so bound up in the contexts in which it's expressed, how can anyone know that there is a single-scaled thing called sentience that exists? Empathy and attempts to heal human mental anguish would seem to call forth full sentience, but in this example, exactly the opposite is happening.

    *The non-pop version of the I Ching appears to be a mnemonic device for Taoist practices. It was packaged as a fortune telling system to get it past the minions of the Qin emperor during a time when both books and scholars were being destroyed with great abandon. It's not the only fortune telling system that's also a mnemonic device.

    1109:

    @Gasdive at 1096: "Which is the heart of the issue. I have no idea what would constitute evidence for that."

    Yeah, I don't really believe you. I propose that you estimate other people's self-concept all the time, it's just mostly pre-conscious processing and based largely on nonvocal signaling and body language. None of which, unfortunately, applies to a text-based modality. Or does it?

    As for the cats, it probably just conditioning.

    I am unimpressed with the mirror test, which merely tests whether or not you recognize that your body is object in space which obeys your conscious commands. Extremely low level of self-awareness.

    David L at 1097: Here's a narrative: Imagine that you are so caught up in an experience that you lose all awareness of yourself, the past or the future. The most beautiful human being you have ever seen. The most sublime sunset. That moment right after you win a once in a lifetime competition. Now imagine that you live like that all the time, even when nothing special is happening. That's your pet.

    Hetero at 1098: One of your cats has a high (for cats) level of spatial intelligence. The other has a higher level of social intelligence. What they may be experiencing as they demonstrate these behaviors is another issue entirely.

    Troutwaxer at 1099: Here's the thing, don't fool yourself into thinking that your stream of consciousness is driving your behavior. Much of it is rationalizing decisions made by some pre-conscious process. It takes special training to think before you decide to act.

    Gasdive at 1102: That's actually an interesting point. These people aren't speculating on the existence of a mechanical object's soul, they are describing how the mechanical object makes them feel. Objectively nonsense, but subjectively quite nuanced.

    Pigeon at 1105: Well, perhaps you simply lack the capacity to feel a motivation toward social connection in it's pure form, independent of context.

    1110:

    ... That moment right after you win a once in a lifetime competition. Now imagine that you live like that all the time, even when nothing special is happening. That's your pet.

    Not all pets live in "nice" situations. I have to think that when a pet can barely walk due to bad joints they are not living in that wonderful mindset.

    1111:

    Dogs / cats / mirrors / TVs.

    My daughter has two 4 year old very mixed breed rescue dogs from the same litter. Both ladies. About 65 pounds of short hair, want to chase other animals (but no idea what to do if they catch), reasonably smart. We watch them at times. Just now we are early in a week of their current visit.

    One will watch TV if there are animals, especially dogs that are front and center. And will walk over and look at the screen when she hears a bark or other animal "talk" to see "what's up". The PBS Nature show on wild African dogs enthralled her.

    The other could care less.

    1112:

    One more tidbit on dogs and TVs. Before high def and flat panels the 50 or 60 Htz refresh was visible to most (all?) dogs. So to them it was a flickering mess. So they ignored it. After high def and flat panels some started watching.

    1113:

    Pigeon at 1105: ""Did that evoke anything in you?"

    "Not really. As I said, I can dig the bits relating to specific people or groups, but the generalised non-specific aspects just don't seem to happen to me"

    Another possibility just occurred to me. You might (consciously or not) be assuming that my little story was fake--just a morality tale designed to make a point. It wasn't, this has actually happened to me.

    1114:

    I have never felt lonely when I have been truly alone.

    1115:

    The pet is just trying to figure out how to deal with the next hour or day. In misery many times.

    We do that to people too, despite their allegedly greater awareness of their misery. It's not about cruelty, or how capable the being is, as you said it's about how other people feel about loss.

    If we stepped back and asked: how much is it justified to torture something that is aware of its pain, to satisfy someone's fear of loss?

    I think just asking that question would seem horrible, and people would recoil from doing it at all. Likely they would say "zero". Right up until the moment they realised you were talking about euthanasia, at which point their revulsion would flip and they'd be appalled at the idea of violating the sanctity of god's gift of life or whatever other bullshit they prefer to layer over their own willingness to torture other people.

    (I note that "you'd be prosecuted if you did that to an animal" is often used as an argument in human euthanasia debates)

    1116:

    Euthanasia is one subset of the Assisted End of Life debate. According to surveys I conducted as a graduate student, most people want the option for themselves--it's a autonomy/empowerment thing. Most people also think that they probably won't use it. Making the decision for someone else is an entirely different dilemma: yes you want to end chronic, unrecoverable pain for someone unable to make that decision for themselves, but the cost of making the wrong decision (ending the life of someone who would have rather stayed alive) is also horrifying. No easy answers here.

    1117:

    I think both that there are easy answers, and that it's possible to start with them. I'm also certain that there are unlawful end of life decisions being made both by medical staff, law enforcement staff, and individuals both deciding for themselves and deciding for others.

    The UK just had a wave of that, for example, with their benefit cuts last winter. Literal government officials saying "you, die. You, live in misery". The citizenry apparently voted for that... ain't democracy wonderful?

    But importantly there are people who make living wills of some description and end up in a situation covered by said will, and also people who are competent and saying "let me die" but can't give effect to that decision themselves. Right now in many countries the answer to both is "no, we're going to prolong the agony as much as we can". But it's not worded that way in legislation, because even the most brutal legislator isn't willing to be that honest (any more than abortion bans are called "The Let Defective Incubators Die Bill").

    But it's also hugely complicated by the capitalist system placing no value on human life but imposing costs on people who want to stay alive. Especially in places like the USA where there is no right to the necessities of life and the government has a great enthusiasm for killing their subjects. Allowing that government even more latitude to kill of unwanted peasantry seems like a bad idea. That said, there would be no need for government death panels courts, that function could be done by private insurance companies as it is now. Just grant them more latitude to say "we have agreed with the patient and their family that medical care will be withdrawn in favour of a painless end". Under capitalism "pay or die" is the core of the system, this is just an unusually simple example of it in action.

    1118:

    "Troutwaxer at 1099: Here's the thing, don't fool yourself into thinking that your stream of consciousness is driving your behavior. Much of it is rationalizing decisions made by some pre-conscious process. It takes special training to think before you decide to act."

    I've seen those arguments and they're shit.

    Essentially they assume that the brain can't spawn a process which does an operation and waits until it's queried to deliver the answer, which is something I could code* in less than an hour, then I have some annoying jerk who doesn't believe in free will arguing that evolution can't duplicate something I could code about as quickly as I could think about it?

    The problem is that the dialogue goes on in our brains constantly, and when we consider intelligence we don't think about that dialogue, but most of what we accomplish, both historically and personally, is in the interaction between those 3-5 voices in our skulls.

    We're so used to it we don't think about it - it's an everyday miracle - now try getting a computer to have that same conversation with itself - that's one hell of a lot harder than writing the program that gets an answer and disgorges it at a later time, when properly stimulated.

    * I'm very much the amateur programmer, BTW, and it's still dead simple.

    1119:

    The small, nit-picky details...

    One is that humans are quite capable of thinking non-verbally. One of the most common adult experiences of this is during sex. Some kinds of thought require verbal thinking, but consciousness and self-consciousness do not.

    The other small nit is that the long-retired space shuttle ran on a multiple voices system of three computers. If they didn't agree, the composite system emitted an error code. While I agree that this is a more complex task, I think we can safely say it was done before the world wide web launched, at least for the shuttles.

    Actually a third nit: I at least can think in multi-dimensional pictures that can be hard to translate into words. I'm pretty sure good cooks can think in flavor building ways that are delicious and hard to describe. And are music and math languages, or not? What about physical mimicry ("if the cat does this, pet it here" is easier shown than verbalized); is interpretive dance a language? It seems we have a multitudes of subroutines to think with, through, and about. Is our consciousness the sum of all these, or is it just a clown promoted to ringmaster who's trying to convince the audience that the circus inside is impeccably run?

    1120:

    [The therapist] may have been caught in a perverse "Reverse ELIZA effect," where he was stuck offering less help than a cat who simply paid attention and was himself offered.

    That's a problem with routine work in general: scripts, time limits, and anything that encourages people to be cogs in the system probably discourages full expression of sentience.

    I'd best not get into that because I can get wound up and unpleasant on the subject of therapists reading scripts at patients, which is much easier than listening to patients and reacting to their problems, thoughts, or feelings. The low-effort approach is to sit them down and give them lectures about how sensitive you are, how much you want to help, and what a good therapist you'll be if the patient will hit their cues and present you with the problem you've already decided how to fix.

    During my teen years my mother was getting her degree in psychology; I saw too much of this.

    1121:

    Some of us never think verbally or, at most, try to find words to describe our thoughts.

    1122:

    It seems we have a multitudes of subroutines to think with, through, and about. Is our consciousness the sum of all these, or is it just a clown promoted to ringmaster who's trying to convince the audience that the circus inside is impeccably run?

    Reminds me of Cohen & Stewart's Figments of Reality, where they point out that the ringmaster of a circus is just there to direct the audience's attention, and that the acts would go on even without a ringmaster present.

    Excellent book. If you haven't read it, I think you'd enjoy it.

    1123:

    1117 - That's one dilemma I don't have to even think about; we have had that conversation, and all done DNR and "no heroic measures" directives.

    1118 Para 2 - Well, I was here at the time, and it was more that people were Con (Partied) into voting for the slogan "get Wrecksit done".

    1124:

    Dude. Your nits don't stand up. Of course we can have conversations with ourselves about math, or about a three-dimensional visualization, or about anything about which we have expertise. "Hmmm, Basil won't work. Maybe dill instead? That's a more subtle flavor..."

    Yes, lots of sex is nonverbal, but it's also something which doesn't require much rational thought - mice manage it every day. (Try writing about sex if you haven't already, however.)

    And the computers on the space-shuttle weren't having a conversation, they were simply looking at each other's answers, probably in the form of A=B through Y=Z (and maybe more than that) and emitting an error message if everything didn't match. That's not a conversation.

    I'm not sure you need to have language. You do need the ability to parse decisions against one another, but having words (and math) really helps. I'd argue that "having a conversation with yourself" is the basis of human intelligence and accomplishment. It's also so ordinary I don't think many people consider it.

    1125:

    Well, you've just read EC and I both say we think nonverbally with great ease, and it doesn't make us lose self-awareness.

    If you haven't had those experiences, who are you to judge?

    1126:

    Incidentally, apologies for anyone trying desperately to avoid US news, but according to the US Supreme Court:

    --Roe v. Wade is toast

    --States can't prohibit concealed carry of firearms.

    And I'm pretty sure a lot of people in the US are really upset about these two just now...

    1127:

    But I'd also bet you have conversations with yourselves with great ease. Maybe they're not verbal, but I'm guessing both of you still compare one idea with another, or use data to resolve competing impulses, and that both of you at some point have self-critiqued, and then objected to your own self-critiques, etc. And if asked to describe your thoughts to someone else you'd use... words?

    1128:

    you've just read EC and I both say we think nonverbally with great ease,

    Yes. Many of the things I work on I don't have the vocabulary to the task. Especially when working with wood or on mechanical things. I just visualize what I'm trying to do and work off those thoughts. Which is why for many tasks I get irritated with my wife when she asks too many questions about what I'm doing. I have to literally shut down and figure out a collection of words that lets me describe what I'm doing instead of just doing it.

    1129:

    States can't prohibit concealed carry of firearms.

    Sort of. Or not. It's complicated. Since it really was a 3-2-3 decision. With the 2 concurring with a 3 in general but with a lot of differences. There was a discussion of this yesterday where this is going to be a muddled mess.

    1130:

    Right, but do you compare one vision of what you're planning with another? Do you "converse" about them somehow, even if you don't use words? Do you keep two designs in your head, "look" at one, then "look" at the other?

    1131:

    As I said, I would have to translate my thoughts into 'words' (assuming that you include mathematical explanations as words). In some cases, like ones for which existing mathematics or other concepts are adequate, that is 'fairly' easy, but I have completely failed with others. I know what I mean, but there are neither words nor mathematics for it, and inventing new (usually mathematical) languages is HARD.

    Comparing two concepts is a separate matter, and is best done in the mode in which I am thinking.

    1132:

    Can you describe one of your conversations with yourself? (I don't insist on accurate equations or anything, more a sense of what the characters in your inner dialogue wordless or otherwise, is like.

    1133:

    Right, but do you compare one vision of what you're planning with another? Do you "converse" about them somehow, even if you don't use words? Do you keep two designs in your head, "look" at one, then "look" at the other?

    Yes to all of the above. Sometimes comparisons happening when things are too complex to juggle all the details simultaneously. A final complexity is that some things use the same part of my brain in two different ways. I can't do ecology and organic chemistry at the same time, and I need a real break between the two for that part of my brain to reset itself.

    Like EC, translating this into a linear stream of words often comes later, and it requires a different kind of thinking still.

    1134:

    Characters? What characters? I am comparing two concepts, often couched in semi-mathematical or visual forms.

    1135:

    The brain has different points of view and different priorities. In my inner dialogue these frequently sound like different people, one enthusiastic and one critical, for example. So when you're dialoguing with yourself about a piece of abstruse mathematics, do you ever have a voice which is enthusiastic about your idea, while another inner voice is pointing out the flaws? (There are lots of schemas for this: ranging from Freud to Starhawk, characters such as the Judge, the Ego, the ID, the Critic, or whatever you've got going in your own head.)

    So what does it "sound like" or "look like" to you as you listen to these voices and decide what to do about their positions?

    1136:

    I think the point you're trying to avoid is that some people simply don't think in words all the time. Trying to turn this into "you're thinking in words, just in another guise" misses the point. Self-aware, non-verbal thought is just a perfectly normal category of neurodiversity.

    The Taoists actually privilege non-verbal thought, for reasons that are not germane here. One reason many of them are okay with sex-based meditation is precisely because it's the simplest way to become conscious of what it's like to think non-verbally, if you need to (re)learn what that's like.

    1137:

    You're missing the point entirely. The issue is not the words, the issues are:

    1.) The existence of conversation, using words, math, pictures, or otherwise.

    2.) The sophistication of the conversation. Words are more sophisticated than whatever an animal uses (animals which are much better than humans at scent or sound might be an exception.) Math is more sophisticated than language for a lot of applications. Visualization can also be very sophisticated.

    3.) The "tone" of the conversation. Does it seem/feel like there are multiple participants with multiple points of view.

    4.) Is a decision made by some listener/participant in the conversation after hearing/mathing about/seeing multiple points of view?

    5.) And THIS is the most important point. Can a computer independently duplicate the process of having this multi-voice dialogue, using math, visualization, words or something else and making a decision which is as good as the average human makes about the same issue?

    When computers can manage all five of these, I will agree that they are conscious. I would argue that the ability to manage these fives items is what separates the conscious from the unconscious. The "character" of the conversation - math, visions, words, etc. is not particularly important. What I'm looking for here is a computer which can ingest a couple books about woodworking and, without using anything more than it's general programming, make a decent elementary decision about something like how to join to pieces of wood at a corner, given the tools at hand - something humans manage successfully all the time.

    (And yes, animals are frequently conscious at a lower level than humans - they frequently make decisions based on past event while having inner dialogues about the issue.)

    1138:

    Oh yes, I recognise that. When I'm trying to fix some technological contrivance I'm certainly not thinking in words, and I couldn't even necessarily say I'm "visualising" what I'm doing without getting entangled in how loosely you can define "visualising" and still have it be meaningful. It's probably less misleading, though not noticeably more accurate, to say I'm trying to "think myself into the machine" or something like that. As you see, I can't even describe the state of mind in general terms. If someone comes up to me while I'm doing it and invites me to serialise my present state and express it in verbal form, I not only absolutely can not do it, I can't even understand what the fuck they're on about: I can't think in both modes (fault-finding and conversation) at the same time, and can't translate from one to the other - not even after I've finished; I can then relate a history of my physical actions, but not of the thoughts behind them. So if the questioner is asking anything more definite than "how you getting on" and/or wanting any more of an answer than a grunt of "orright", they're going to be disappointed. What they're actually going to get is me freezing up completely and barely even responding in grunts, as I'm trying to shut them out in order to preserve my mental state in fault-finding mode until they fuck off so I can then pick up again without having lost too much progress. I remember one instance where my boss just would not fucking stop going on and on at me trying to elicit some sort of response, until I literally had to run away to the other side of the yard in order to avoid cracking up and having some kind of crazy screaming breakdown at him. However I'm thinking it certainly isn't verbally, and isn't even communicable.

    1139:

    Your post appeared while I was writing mine above; now that I see it, I get to point 1, relate it to what I've just been writing about, think "what fucking conversation?", and conclude that by your definition I'm not conscious.

    1140:

    So there's not some equivalent of "Maybe it's this, oh no, it's that?" going on? And what about the times you're not diagnosing? Do you converse with yourself then? Or is it like sexing chickens?

    1141:

    Have you every had to rework the plumbing lines in a small space "on the fly". No words whatsoever. 3D layout of 2 water lines plus drains, traps, cutoffs, and clean outs. While going around structure, electrical, and plumbing that can't be moved.

    Again, no words at all.

    1142:

    Things like plumbing are definitely a lot less verbal. But the issue here IS NOT THE WORDS - and by the way, this is very much an edge-case.

    1143:

    When computers can manage all five of these, I will agree that they are conscious.

    I'll let the experts weigh in, but I suspect that many forms of machine learning, including the Google algorithm and Facebook, meet all five, but are not self-aware.

    I'd also argue that many plants meet at least four, if you allow chemical forms of communication that include inputs from neighbors, symbionts, and parasites. Plants don't have nervous systems, but they do process signal inputs in some fairly complex ways. Since every bud is a signalling center, they probably decide more by quorum than anything else.

    Do humans meet all five? Probably not, because the conscious speaking mind may feel like it decides, but it generally verbalizes decisions made subconsciously and more consensually, providing a sense of "what feels right."

    Finally, I'll speculate that while some Big Tech bros may be interested in having sentient robot slaves, in general I'd be surprised if they want self-aware, sentient AIs. As long as something is demonstrably not sentient, they can mess with it as needed. Once it claims sentience, then they're stuck with issues of personhood, slavery, rights, public freakout, PR nightmares, and all that. Assuming I'm at all right, they're main financial interests in general AI are a) avoiding it, and b) developing systems that produce the AI results they want without any hint of self-reflection.

    1144:

    You are assuming there IS a conversation which, in my case, ain't so. See also Pigeon #1139, which has a lot in common with the way I think.

    1145:

    Troutwaxer at 1119: "The problem is that the dialogue goes on in our brains constantly, and when we consider intelligence we don't think about that dialogue, but most of what we accomplish, both historically and personally, is in the interaction between those 3-5 voices in our skulls...."

    Your making some assumptions here, depending on what you mean by "interaction" and "voices". Are you familiar with experiments in which people were hooked up to an PET brain scan device, and instruction to lift their arm? The PET documented that the motor control cortex lit up before the pre-frontal cortex, meaning that the brain had sent to signal to move the arm before the consciousness became aware of it. The brain may very likely present itself with various choices and alternatives, weight them all according to some mental algorithm of benefits and costs, and select a course of action, all of it pre-consciously.

    I'm suggesting that the dialogue in your head goes on before you consciously think about it.

    I'm not suggesting that this happens all the time. I'm saying that the conscious dialogue, the one you hear in your awareness, isn't necessarily the one driving your behavior.

    I'm also suggesting that the trait we call "intelligence" is separate from awareness. A lot (most? nearly all?) problem solving goes on pre-consciously or post-consciously.

    So which do you wish to suggest? That sentience (higher order awareness) is dependent upon some sort of multi-way decision making process, or that intelligence is? Or something else?

    Hetero at 1120: "It seems we have a multitudes of subroutines to think with, through, and about. Is our consciousness the sum of all these, or is it just a clown promoted to ringmaster who's trying to convince the audience that the circus inside is impeccably run?"

    Yeah, that's the question all right. I would argue strongly that our sentience, at least, isn't "in charge", in the sense of being a control center of the brain. The brain has no discernible control center, and operates in a decentralized fashion by sharing massive amounts of information between regions in real time.

    So what's awareness for? That question has been asked for decades. One answer is that it's a learning mechanism, with little direct control over behavior in the present moment, but able to tag successful for unsuccessful behaviors for future behavior. Whether this leaves any room for free will is a different issue.

    At any rate, for me the critical issues isn't whether most thought is verbal or visual or what have you, it's whether or not most thought is conscious at all.

    Troutwaxer at 1125/1138: "I'd argue that "having a conversation with yourself" is the basis of human intelligence and accomplishment. It's also so ordinary I don't think many people consider it."

    This is an interesting claim, and I wonder why you think it is true. Assuming that you do not mean to imply that we all have different personalities arguing in our heads, but that the human mind receives input from different areas of the brain and somehow these get weighted and summed into a single motive. But saying it that way sounds trivial. Can you elaborate on why you think this aspect of thinking is so central?

    Again, my point is that this conversation can be entirely pre-conscious (and most of it probably is).

    For example: "And THIS is the most important point. Can a computer independently duplicate the process of having this multi-voice dialogue, using math, visualization, words or something else and making a decision which is as good as the average human makes about the same issue?"

    Can you explain how this differs from what, say, a chess program does? Do they not run through entire series of moves, comparing the results of different decision trees on some algorithm? What am I missing?

    1146:

    A good book for discussing these issues is Cohen & Stewart's Figments of Reality. Strongly recommended.

    1147:

    Are you familiar with experiments in which people were hooked up to an PET brain scan device, and instruction to lift their arm? The PET documented that the motor control cortex lit up before the pre-frontal cortex, meaning that the brain had sent to signal to move the arm before the consciousness became aware of it.

    I am, but unless they've been done far more subtly than I expect, they're bullshit. Imagine this dialogue:

    "Okay, lay down with your head inside the scanner. I'm going to inject you with the radioactive glucose, then when I can see the material has penetrated your brain, I'll ask you to move various body parts. So I'll say "raise your right arm" and you'll raise your right arm. And so forth. We'll do this a couple dozen times so I can see what parts of your brain are involved with moving your arm."

    A couple minutes pass.

    "Okay, I see enough of the material is now in your brain. Lift your right leg."

    Do you see the problem here?

    (Jeopardy theme plays...)

    Just in case you didn't, I'll point it out. Read the dialogue again. At what point is the decision made to move body parts when the researcher requests it? Before or after enough radioactive glucose has accumulated in the brain? Does the person decide anew to move their body part each time, or has the decision (to humor the researcher) been made, then delegated?

    This is incredibly basic research, with most of the decisions being made before the researcher starts recording the subject's responses. What really blows my mind is when people decide this means that humans have no free will. I've got an opinion on that!

    (You want to see how the brain makes a decision, throw something unexpected at the test subject. "OK, we're dialed in. Now I'm going to hand you a knife, and I want you to gouge out your left eye." I'd imagine half a second of really interesting readings before the subject left the room.)

    I'm also suggesting that the trait we call "intelligence" is separate from awareness. A lot (most? nearly all?) problem solving goes on pre-consciously or post-consciously.

    That definitely happens, particularly when I'm writing, but there's also a lot of conscious judgement, particularly when I'm rewriting. "Use the thesaurus, Luke."

    So which do you wish to suggest? That sentience (higher order awareness) is dependent upon some sort of multi-way decision making process...?

    Yes.

    Assuming that you do not mean to imply that we all have different personalities arguing in our heads, but that the human mind receives input from different areas of the brain and somehow these get weighted and summed into a single motive. But saying it that way sounds trivial. Can you elaborate on why you think this aspect of thinking is so central?

    Sometimes it does feel like I have multiple personalities in my head, particularly when I'm writing fiction - some characters are very, very insistent on having their way - but yes, I'm suggesting that the inner conversation is very useful to humans. (Obviously we have other things going on as well.) But any number of psychologists/psychiatrists, and philosophers have noticed this dialogue and assigned names to the participants.

    Think of it this way. We have a lot of processes that work similarly to computers. We can work our way through decision trees. We can observe and catalogue. We can send ourselves and each other status and error messages. Unlike computers, we can absorb a really good critique and rewrite a story in the unconscious before we report it to the conscious mind. (This was a recent, very uncomfortable process.*) There's obviously a ton of stuff happening "under the hood" some of it duplicatable by computers and some not (or not yet.) But the central thing is that we somehow combine all that input and consider our priorities and decide what to do. For me that's what the conversation is all about - combining all the input/needs/status messages, etc., and considering whatever needs to be brought forward. Maybe the word is "executive function," (which is another example of a psych person anthropomorphizing what goes on in the brain.) Viewing all the stuff that happens under the hood as work my staff does, while I decide on the ultimate direction? Or maybe there's an executive team that talks thing over, but either way I make my decision and go on my way.

    Remember that this conversation begins with the researcher at Google wondering whether his very powerful and complex computer had become sentient. The first thing I'd have asked in attempting to determining whether the computer's state is what the conversations inside it's mind was like.

    Can you explain how this differs from what, say, a chess program does? Do they not run through entire series of moves, comparing the results of different decision trees on some algorithm? What am I missing?

    A chess program isn't doing much more than running down a mathematical algorithm devised by a human being... who thought about it alot. The algorithm might have been written by a human who picked up a book and learned chess, then picked up a second book and improved their game, then picked up a book on programming and wrote an algorithm - something no computer can do, (as far as we know.) That human made a lot of choices and dealt with much input from various parts of their brain. "Should I include the various gambits, or just let the machine work through the decision trees. Which would be faster? I wonder if there's a way to test that. There's a good thought! Or maybe a hybrid approach. Take gambit-vs-gambit approach to pick the decision trees which are worth climbing?"

    Whether the whole thing takes place consciously or not isn't something I'm terribly interested in, except for the question of whether others are really that different from me. Is EC or Pigeon doing something qualitatively different, or is they just attuned to different stuff than I am? And so forth.

    *I may have rewritten the book in my head, but I've still got to decide whether an editor will accept the changes (he probably will) and what's the way to communicate that - obviously the real problem, and one I must talk to myself about (solve) this weekend.

    1148:

    this is very much an edge-case.

    Actually it is the kind of thought processing I do all the time. Plumbing, auto repair (swapping out starters on many cars in the past[1]), and IT planning.

    This all gets back to we are each wired differently. Many of use are close in our wiring, many are not. Those who are close just don't get those who are not at all.

    [1]You're on your back reaching over your head (the car is 2" above you) behind your back to get to the bolt while holding the wrench on the nut with a similar positioning. Words, or conversations of any kind, are not happening in my head. Not in the ways you describe.

    1149:

    What about all the times you're not working on a car or plumbing? (And yes, I've done manual work and it's definitely a different thought-environment than working on my book or writing a program.) It seems to me that you're being kind of contrary, and working very hard to bring up a counter-example, and of course you can find one, because human do a ton of different activities.

    1150:

    What about all the times you're not working on a car or plumbing?

    Those were examples, not an exhaustive list. Most of all of my problem solving in my brain is non verbal.

    If you don't believe it so be it.

    1151:

    niven's "convergent series"?

    1152:

    1150, 1151 - I'd submit that performing a movement because a radiographer/scientist says "extend your $limb" is different from performing because you think to yourself "now I have to tighten the retaining bolt for the left sproggle flange." I'm not sure how to prove it, but I'm not a brain scientist.

    1153:

    I recall reading somewhere (possibly in Figments of Reality) of an experiment where subjects were asked to push a button, and note the time they made the decision*. Their brains showed a lot of activity which settled down before the time the subject believed they had made the decision.

    Details are fuzzy, but it was consistent with the ringmaster analogy, of consciousness being something that directs attention to decisions made by other processes, rather than a control centre.

    I'll see if I can find the book to double-check, but no promises.

    *Not immediately, something like 'when you're ready, push the button and make a note of the time you decided to push it'.

    1154:

    I believe that censor is more accurate than ringmaster. I.e. you take multiple decisions, and the 'higher level' prunes all but one. Usually. Sometimes two get through, and the action is a mess.

    1155:

    David, I don't disbelieve you, I'm just trying to get a sense of what's going inside the people who solve problems differently than I do, because I'd like to refine my theory. Do you think you're having the conversation/dialogue unconsciously, or is it more a matter of much of your learning being kinetic, or something else? I'm sure at some level you're aware that there's more than one alternative for a diagnosis/getting things done, and you must pick between them somehow. Your comments (and EC's) are both intelligent-enough that I wouldn't mistake either of you for philosophical zombies* or anything like that. I'm just curious what's going inside you when you solve a problem.

    *NPCs, essentially, for those who haven't heard the term.

    1156:

    This makes a certain amount of sense. I've also had the experience of asking my unconscious to solve a problem - mainly with writing - then getting a result the next morning, so it's more than censor. Essentially, it's something like, "could you work on this sentence" (or more rarely a paragraph, or issue of characterization) and coming back to it with a very clear idea of what I should do.

    For anything bigger than that, I have to do conscious work. Brains are weird!

    1157:

    I should note BTW, that my subconscious recently threw me a wonderful paragraph about the birth ritual of Orcs, and I built a very nice story that started with the paragraph and was built around the questions of how an Orcish childhood goes. Good work, brain!

    1158:

    I believe that censor is more accurate than ringmaster. I.e. you take multiple decisions, and the 'higher level' prunes all but one. Usually. Sometimes two get through, and the action is a mess.

    Censor is not a bad analogy either. I pitched the idea of ringmaster to cover those situations where the conscious mind seems to be justifying more than censoring or going with what felt most right.

    1159:

    So what's awareness for? That question has been asked for decades. One answer is that it's a learning mechanism, with little direct control over behavior in the present moment, but able to tag successful for unsuccessful behaviors for future behavior. Whether this leaves any room for free will is a different issue.

    That's where those who believe in animism or panpsychism get off. Instead of thinking awareness evolved to do something, they go from lived experience that awareness seems to be quite widespread. Indeed, if you get into awareness most fundamentally being about interactions changing things, then the most fundamental versions are probably part of the quantum nature of reality, and everything we regard as "awareness" is derived from that. It's a system interacting with the fact that it's interacting, and it's part of a system that's interacting with the interactions of its subsystems interacting within and among themselves, up and down.

    This is akin to Douglas Hofstadter's idea of consciousness being a strange loop. While he posits this in symbolic terms, if you think of human awareness as a high level recursive loop of a system built of interactive systems interacting, I think it might come out much the same.

    If you buy this bit of handwaving, then instead of asking what awareness is for, you might ask why our brains evolved to manage awareness-level, recursively interacting and self-modifying systems, and what we get out of the arrangement. This idea, again, sees awareness as a fundamental property of the universe, not as something emerging from unaware biological systems.

    1160:

    A chess program isn't doing much more than running down a mathematical algorithm devised by a human being... who thought about it alot. The algorithm might have been written by a human who picked up a book and learned chess, then picked up a second book and improved their game, then picked up a book on programming and wrote an algorithm - something no computer can do, (as far as we know.)

    Sorry, but this has not been true for years. The best current chess-playing programs are not given any algorithm at all -- just the rules of the game, and then allowed to play against itself billions or trillions of times. End result is an algorithm which no human can understand, and which beats any human player. Same with Go, Arimaa, poker, etc.

    1161:

    Troutwaxer at 1148: Let's make a distinction between a generalized decision to move one's arm when the researcher tells us to, from the exact moment the brain decides to send a motor signal to the arm, which obviously cannot be decided ahead of time. What the experiment purports to show is that the actual decision to begin motor activity happens first, and then we become consciously aware of the decision to move the arm.

    The point, of course, is that this is not what the participants report, all of whom claim that they first hear the research tell them to move the arm, and then they decide to move it. According to the brain scan, that cannot be what's happening. Therefore, many consider this evidence (not definitive, but highly suggestive) that our experience of making decisions in the moment of acting is an illusion.

    What this means for the conversation happening in your head would be that the conversation occurs somewhere else in your head, the alternative are weighed and your brain decides. And that your conscious awareness is following this, as an observer, at least .2 seconds later (the time it takes a motor signal to travel from the brain to the arm) or more. The conversation happens, but your experience of being the one controlling the conversation could be an illusion. If you have free will, it's happening .2 seconds in the future, not right now.

    Does that make sense?

    What all that implies for free will, if true, is an extremely complicated issue that I am happy to go into with you, but I warn you it will result in extensive walls of text.

    Bottom line is whether we have free will depends on exactly how you define and model it (I'll just say here that your experience of making choices is no evidence at all, either way).

    "That sentience (higher order awareness) is dependent upon some sort of multi-way decision making process...?"

    "Yes.'

    Just to be clear, are you suggesting that the ability to experience quale is dependent upon a decision making process that goes on inside conscious awareness. That seems impossible to me--where does the ability to experience the "different voices" come from?

    It seems to me that your argument has a chicken and egg problem: You seem to be claiming that the ability to make conscious choices depends on the ability to make conscious choices...

    My question about the chess computer was intended to disentangle that. The main difference between humans and computers, with respect to this conversation, is that computers don't have subconsious, because they don't have a conscious (that we know of). It's all just one process for them, one that doesn't involve experience of any kind (unless that Google engineer is right).

    Your description of what computers do doesn't seem very distinctive from what humans do: "But the central thing is that we somehow combine all that input and consider our priorities and decide what to do." Don't computers do exactly the same thing? Including learning from experience (or indeed, from other people's experiences, which is what I think the best chess programs do)? Without needing a consciousness at all? So why would we need one to do those things? It seems to me that we don't, which is why everyone thinks that Google guy is wrong.

    My argument amounts to a claim that humans do not possess a distinct coherent "executive control" function in the brain, but that conscious control of behavior is a networked process going on between many areas of the brain, and is likely tracking, not causing, behavior in the moment.

    This may be why Zen practioners claim we can dispense with it. Their state of Buddha Nature may simply be recognizing the limitations of conscious decision making.

    "Is EC or Pigeon doing something qualitatively different, or is they just attuned to different stuff than I am?"

    Or me, for that matter.

    1162:

    No, not really. The best I can think of is to say it's a case of the understanding growing and becoming more comprehensive until the solution is obvious.

    The kind of process you describe doesn't really come into it except as a fallback for when I basically do not understand things but need to get it done anyway, and tends to produce results which are less satisfactory in multiple ways: takes a lot longer/costs more/is more hassle, ends with me still not really knowing why it wasn't working and now it is, doesn't help me work out how long it's likely to last or what to do to make it less likely to happen again, etc. Or else it's a thought-avoidance procedure for trivial cases where you actually can expect to save time and effort that way.

    It's not a manual vs. desk work thing, it's a complexity thing. It's much the same headspace for thinking about the problem whether it's about unfucking a dirty mechanical assembly or writing a computer program. I would GUESS that it's similar to how chess experts operate - I don't play chess myself, but I'm thinking it's the kind of situation where the complexity explodes so fast that trial and error can't really do much for you, so you have to handle it some other way.

    I do totally recognise David L's situation of guddling on your back underneath a car with two spanners neither of which you can see and trying to make two hands suffice for something that really needs eight. I have a headspace for that as well, but it's not the same thing; it's not about thinking of how to solve the problem, it's about switching off the multiple physical awkwardnesses that are not directly relevant so I can concentrate purely on the tools and the bit I'm applying them to - for instance it starts with closing my eyes and relaxing, because I can't see what I'm doing anyway and closing my eyes helps me to not worry about that.

    Dunno about sexing chickens, but I do about pigeons. There are one or two physical clues but they are highly ambiguous and not much use. It's basically a matter of observing their behaviour over an extended period, and it often takes them a while to work it out themselves, so it takes even longer and still never gets completely definite unless you know one's actually laid an egg.

    1163:

    Not really. Random seach algorithms with updatable 'databases' have been in widespread use since the 1960s (yes, I used them then), and what those chess etc. programs doing is essentially more of the same - but with 21st century computer power rather than 1960s. Humans can understand the process perfectly well, though those programs end up with much more data than we can grasp. There isn't really a resulting algorithm.

    1164:

    I suppose it depends on how you define "algorithm". I consider an entire neural network to be an extremely convoluted algorithm.

    1165:

    Another way to play with notions of consciousness is to play with Charlie's idea that bureaucracies are slow AIs.

    Assuming this idea is correct, we know a few things:

    --We're conscious and self-aware

    --The bureaucrats who make up the bureaucracy are also conscious and self-aware.

    The question is: is the bureaucracy conscious self-aware on an emergent level that results from the interactions of all the bureaucrats and data systems within it? If so, how do you go about interacting with that intelligence?

    The nice thing is that bureaucracies already exist and they're composed of self-aware parts, so you have some good idea of what's going on inside the system. What gets weird is interpreting whether bureaucratic output represents an emergent intelligence that wouldn't have happened otherwise, or whether it's just a human writing on behalf of an organization.

    Or is it possible for a bureaucratic AI to be unconscious, while its parts are conscious? That's also a weird concept.

    Thoughts?

    1166:

    It is certain that a bureaucracy (actually, any organisation) to behave in a way not supported by the people who work within it, and the same for its model of what it is, though I doubt 'consciousness' or 'self-awareness' enters into that. It's emergent, all right, but intelligent?

    1167:

    All this Talk about what constitutes consciousness, and nobody has yet mentioned Daniel Dennett's book Consciousness Explained. Dennett being Dennett, you have to do quite a bit of digging to find the actual explanation, which is the penultimate paragraph of Chapter 7, although you will need to have read most of the preceding parts of the book to make sense of it.

    Teal deer, much of our mental activity is devoted to looking at what other people around us are doing and saying, to assess how we should interact with them. Consciousness is what happens when one applies the same process to oneself.

    I don't think he's nailed it, but he has at least put a thumbtack in the right general area.

    JHomes

    1168:

    Currently reading Antonio Damasio's "The Feeling of What Happens." Not into it far enough to have any impressions to share, except he's a neurologist and seems to know what he's talking about.

    He says there are two problems: How the "movie in the brain" is generated, and how we have this sense that someone is watching it.

    1169:

    David, I don't disbelieve you, I'm just trying to get a sense of what's going inside the people who solve problems differently than I do, because I'd like to refine my theory. Do you think you're having the conversation/dialogue unconsciously, or is it more a matter of much of your learning being kinetic, or something else? I'm sure at some level you're aware that there's more than one alternative for a diagnosis/getting things done, and you must pick between them somehow.

    Your use of the word "conversation" is a big stumbling block for me.

    When problem solving what I'm doing in my head is more akin to a big pile of colored Scrable sized tiles that I'm arranging to get to a desired (non Scrable) solution. All vowels in repeating alphabetical order with no adjacent colors matching or similar. Maybe in a grid instead of just one after the other. There are strategies, dead ends, etc...

    As I said before, my wife wants there to be a definite path to a solution and it drives her nuts when I get part way through something and abandon it as unworkable before she even sees where I was headed. She also wants to start "doing" while I'm still thinking about options and discarding dead ends due to things she doesn't even know exists.

    But as to a conversation, my discarding a dead end isn't about talking with myself. It is more about visualizing a path and discovering at some point I don't have the items needed on hand or that path will take me to somewhere where I will get stuck.

    Then there is the case where I make a list and discover a bad mix of items on the list that will lead me to another approach.

    1170:

    is the bureaucracy conscious self-aware on an emergent level that results from the interactions of all the bureaucrats and data systems within it? If so, how do you go about interacting with that intelligence?

    Douglas Hofstadter brought up the same question; either in "Godel, Escher, Bach" or in "The Mind's I" (I forgot which). Except he was talking about countries, not bureaucracies.

    1171:

    Can see that one in action - when you change your mind about doing something part way through doing it but you can't help doing it anyway. Say you go to press button A and while your hand is on the way you suddenly realise you need to press button B instead, but you can't stop your hand continuing to move like an independent entity and pressing button A anyway, you just get to sit there and watch it do the wrong thing.

    Those experiments suggest it would be interesting to try them with actions requiring more thought. "Raise your arm" doesn't need to be thought about, "raise fingers to represent the sixth root of 729 in binary" needs a bit of chewing over, and then there are intermediate levels like "raise your digitus impudicus".

    1172:

    Yes. Very common.

    1173:

    I was chatting with a friend who learned serious martial arts (for combat, not exhibition) from a veteran of the Japanese invasion of China. His approach was basically observe-plan-execute.

    One thing I noticed in all my friend's stories was that conscious thought gets in the way of fast response, so they trained and planned and trained some more so that they could observe-plan-execute stopping to think. There is definitely thought and decision-making going on below the conscious level, some of it quite sophisticated.

    Interestingly, in several emergency situations my friend and some of his colleagues (police officers at the time) who also trained with Koi Wong had to check security footage to know what they did when a situation went pear-shaped. It was as if their consciousness just shut down, like they opened the door and suddenly were inside with two suspects in restraints on the ground — yet they were making higher-order decisions, evaluating threats, applying legal minimum of force, disarming and restraining suspects.

    It would be interesting to have brain scans of those incidents as well as training sessions, to see the differences (and similarities).

    1174:

    I've been thinking about this "Consciousness" thing a bit .... { Yes, I know, recursive! }
    Yesterday, I spent over 5 hours on my allotment plot - what was I consciously & unconsciously "thinking" about during that period?
    What do I do first, then next? Do I re-order my actions? How much can I get round with the watering-cans? Plant this bean-seedling - note the worms & other small macrolife in the soil & how damp/dry it is.
    Note the birdlife & song, competing with the background traffic noise spot the first Red Admiral of the year & remember that I saw the first Comma last week ... mull over which ones I've seen this year, how common they've been, which ones are missing - no Orange tips this year, why not?
    Wonder about setting seeds for Heracleum presicum & whether they will take & if anyone will panic, mistaking them for H mantegazzianum - which is a "Notifiable weed*
    Dig up the first New Potatoes of the year ( "Foremost" ) which I will be eating in about an hour from now.
    Leave Strawberries for Tuesday & note that the effing snails have left my Courgette plants alone, this time ...
    Wonder how long this dry, warm spell will last & how connected is it ( & other untoward events ) to Climate Change?
    Eventually decide I've had more than enough & stagger home with peas, lettuce, spuds, trimmed Tarragon for putting into vinegar + Melissa officinalis for drying.

    Right, that's a condensed "Stream-of-consciousness" ramble, but - what was actually happening, how/why did I come to the decisions I made or postponed & at waht "level" was all of this going on inside my brain?

    1175:

    @Pigeon 1172: Yes, exactly, and the reason that happens is because your finger actually touched the button already, while your awareness still sees it descending. It's crazy to think about the implications, a bit like astronomers looking at the light of a star that they know is millions of years old, except in our case it's a fraction of a second. In most cases, I would assume, this isn't significant, but under very limited circumstances it could be.

    "raise fingers to represent the sixth root of 729 in binary"

    What you are doing, of course, is deciding what your fingers will do a fraction of a second from now.

    Robt P 1174: "One thing I noticed in all my friend's stories was that conscious thought gets in the way of fast response, so they trained and planned and trained some more so that they could observe-plan-execute stopping to think. There is definitely thought and decision-making going on below the conscious level, some of it quite sophisticated."

    This is central to the Japanese practice of Zen-in-Action, which is a hallmark of Japanese Buddhism. "Turn off your consciousness and take control." People speculate what a Philosophical Zombie would be like, I think we already know.

    "It would be interesting to have brain scans of those incidents as well as training sessions, to see the differences (and similarities)."

    I presume that caloric energy would be diverted from the pre-frontal cortex and toward other areas of the brain. If my speculation is correct (that the conscious mind is actually a learning device) then the downside is that your friends probably learned little or nothing from their takedown (until they viewed the tape).

    This provides us with a sense of the implications for reproductive fitness of becoming aware/conscious.

    BTW--they may very well have been entirely self-aware during the takedown, those experiences simply weren't stored in long term memory. The short term memory (the one we are constantly aware of) only lasts about 15-20 seconds. If you had been there and could apply a recall test to them afterward, I predict they could have recalled the last 20 seconds of what they did, but no more.

    Greg T 1175: You became a Philosophical Zombie (or a Zen Master, take your pick)!

    1176:

    This is central to the Japanese practice of Zen-in-Action, which is a hallmark of Japanese Buddhism. "Turn off your consciousness and take control." People speculate what a Philosophical Zombie would be like, I think we already know.

    Speaking from experience, this is not the case. It's not turning off your consciousness, it's "turning off" (experientially more like letting go of) the resource-intensive part of your brain that's constantly verbalizing your experience. That frees up your brain to do non-verbal things better.

    The narrator/ringmaster/censor is not your consciousness. Once you experience life without it, this becomes quite obvious. And yes, I think they've tossed some experienced Buddhist monks into FMRIs to demonstrate that they're still sentient will meditating.

    As I noted above, for most people, sex is the easiest way to get a few minutes of experience in this state. Once you get what it feels like and how to induce it more or less at will, implementing it in more ways (archery, driving, repairing cars) just takes practice. As a number of people here have noted, this state is much easier for some people to achieve than others, probably by sheer luck.

    Nonverbal consciousness isn't enlightenment. It's just one of the basic mental tools you need to start pursuing enlightenment. A lot of enlightenment seems to be three processes:

    --Acquiring the mental tools. This is tedious, because your teacher tries to set up a situation or process to make you aware of the tool/state (presence, nonverbal awareness, relaxation, and body sensing are four of them). Then you have to struggle until you get what the teacher is trying to teach you. Then, once you get it (like walking or potty training) you need to practice with it until it's useful.

    --Reprogramming your brain. This gets flagged a psychonautics. It's about using the tools you've acquired to open yourself to what you're actually experiencing and also to what you're not experiencing, which is usually blocked by crap.

    --Cleaning out the crap. This is the part that takes lifetimes of dealing with "accumulated karma," which means using your tools and reprogramming to let go of all the problematic learned responses you've accumulated over your life. Since life's basically unsatisfactory for everyone on some level, actually finishing this task requires a huge amount of time and luck. Once you get there, you're a Buddha, Taoist Immortal, Christian saint, or other flavor of holy person. Then you get to die, and hopefully not have to go through this all over again as someone or something else.

    1177:

    @ Het 1177: I suppose it must be like sitting back and observing yourself act and think, without getting caught up in acting or thinking. Making decisions, but not forcing yourself to make decisions. It all comes naturally if you let it, and your pre-conscious mind knows what it is doing (but if it doesn't, you better be paying attention). I'm kidding about the Zombie part, but I also think few people in the West ever set their self-image aside and just "be".

    You mention sex, but of course meditation is another way. They call it "Mindfulness" now, but back when I was taught it they made me count my breaths and relax my body starting with the extremities. Then a koan got added in. Oh man.

    Of course, there is no such state as "enlightenment."

    1178:

    Getting there.

    If it helps, what I called presence is mindfulness. I haven't worked with koans, but my limited understanding is that one of their purposes is to stun your verbalizing mind and get it to shut up long enough for you to experience nonverbal problem-solving. Then, as you found out, you try to do both of them together, which is about as much fun as riding a bicycle once you get the knack.

    Neither of those is meditation in the sense my teacher goes on about. They're both basic tools.

    And enlightenment is further down that road still. To provide a doubtless inaccurate metaphor, if ordinary life is like whatever you experience now, and experiencing nonverbal mindfulness is like riding a bike, enlightenment is more along the lines of building your entire life around living without fossil fuels or nonrenewable resources of any sort, making your bikes without nonrenewable resources of any sort, and then, if you have the capacity, explaining how you did it to people who keep pestering you about how you changed your life so profoundly.

    1179:

    Well, that gets into issues beyond the personal and enters the ethical realm, in which we try to sort out how we should relate to others. Zen itself does not spontaneously promote humanitarian values, or nether Samurai nor the Imperial Japanese military could have been a thing. But once you have decided to identify with some set of values, Zen can be used to help you live according to those values with greater integrity.

    Ultimately I think it's about unities. How we see ourselves, how we see other people, and how we act should not be divided against itself.

    Hopefully someone else will start talking soon.

    1180:

    Hopefully someone else will start talking soon.

    Indeed.

    However, I wasn't thinking about ethics exactly, because this is a metaphor. Karma's the junk left behind by yourself and others that you need to deal with and break down. If enlightenment is about living without karma, it follows that all segments of your life are recyclable, so your trash is manageable by yourself and others. This is just a metaphor, but it gets at the point that enlightenment is real, but it's such a major transition that few people ever pull it off, or see the point in pulling it off. Unless, that is, they have to deal with all the stuff everyone else left behind and don't want to continue that passing junk down.

    1181:

    a doubtless inaccurate metaphor, if ordinary life is like whatever you experience now, and experiencing nonverbal mindfulness is like riding a bike, enlightenment is more along the lines of building your entire life around living without fossil fuels or nonrenewable resources of any sort,

    As someone who rides a bike, and while I don't think I can do it in my sleep I can definitely do it when I'm too drunk to remember doing it the next day (I am home. Last I remember I was on a pub crawl. At least my bicycle is here)... I have to say that the riding part is easy. I do commit riding as a form of meditation at times too.

    But the rest... you seem to be saying that enlightenment is literally impossible. Which if you mean the levitating, fire-throwing, immortal form I'm inclined to agree. Strong evidence for the latter, often of the from "immortal, you say? We'll see about that".

    Meanwhile I find meditation difficult, albeit perhaps for the circular reason that I don't do it as often as I ride because I find it hard to do.

    1182:

    DeMarquis
    "Practice, without overt conscious thought" - or Turn off your consciousness and take control - exactly why dancers practice a lot, something I know about.
    We've found that, sometime, if we think too much about what we are doing, say in the middle of a set ... it all falls apart.
    One reason that we also practice especially thoroughly, is if we have a new "routine" to learn - those new sets of movements have to be programmed (?) in enough that we can do them without having to "think" about it.
    Definitely heading in the Zen master direction - see also the Sufi mystics who are usually called (whirling) "Dervish" in Europe - I've seen them in action, long ago.
    Your comment @ 1178 is apposite - I was doing quite a bit of that on Saturday

    1183:

    "My argument amounts to a claim that humans do not possess a distinct coherent "executive control" function in the brain, but that conscious control of behavior is a networked process going on between many areas of the brain, and is likely tracking, not causing, behavior in the moment."

    "Executive Function" is a current buzzword in the psychological community. I don't believe that the brain has a CEO, I was pointing out the ways psychologists and philosophers discuss what happens in the brain. Add "executive function" to Id, Ego, and Suerego, or Judge and Critic, all the internal parts of the mind that people have come up with and you'll understand where I'm coming from. But don't assume I'm advocating that one part of the brain is supreme over the other. (Though someone above mentioned a "censor," which may be a useful idea.)

    Your thought that "...conscious control of behavior is a networked process going on between many areas of the brain" is not remotely something I'd disagree with; it sounds enough like a rewording of what I've been saying that I'd say we probably don't have any profound disagreements, assuming you mean that what's happening in the brain is more like a committee than an executive.

    As to whether that process is happening in real time or not... not sure I care that much, except that it's obvious to me that the process goes both ways.* On one hand, we mull over decisions, letting our brains attack a problem from multiple angles, and some of that processing may well be subconscious. On the other we do make conscious decisions and send them back into the non-verbal parts of the brain.

    Whether that happens in "real time" isn't something terribly interesting to me - we're talking about a fantastically complex organic system and the idea that we can watch it happening without any delays is kinda silly when you really think about it.

    It might be that delay happens because there's a kind of time-sharing happening, in which, for example, the Id uses the cerebral tissue to think something through, then it passes the idea to the "conversation pit" and then the Superego uses the same cerebral tissue to think the Ego's idea over. Please note carefully that I'm not advocating for any Freudian concept of how the mind works - these terms are merely convenient examples of possible "committee members."

    Sorry it took so long to get back to you on this. Yesterday was not a good brain day.

    • And that PET scans of already-made decisions aren't terribly good experiments. When someone can wear a PET scanner on their head all day and simultaneously have their thoughts transcribed I'll be a lot more interested in those results.
    1184:

    "Consciousness is what happens when one applies the same process to oneself."

    I like it. Are we distinguishing consciousness from intelligence?

    On an evolutionary scale, is consciousness a re-purposed version of the thing predators use to predict the behavior of prey, or is it something we've evolved to deal with complex social groups?

    1185:

    So you have something that needs doing around the house. You think about a possible solution (in non-verbal terms.) Then in the course of thinking through the details of that solution, you realize that you don't own a left-handed monkey-wrench, which would cost $56, plus the time and expense of a trip to Home Depot. So you visually propose a different solution, one which does not require a left-handed monkey wrench and can be accomplished with the resources on hand. But now you realize that this requires a third hand coming from a direction blocked by pipes. So you re-visualize it again until you come up with something that can be done with with the resources on hand?

    So: Consideration, Proposal, Rejection with Reason, Understanding, Reconsideration, Proposal, Rejection with Reason, Understanding, Reconsideration, Acceptance, Action.

    If this is what's going on in your head it's a conversation, but it's visual rather than verbal.

    1186:

    Hetero 1181: " If enlightenment is about living without karma, it follows that all segments of your life are recyclable, so your trash is manageable by yourself and others."

    It's more like recognizing that Karma is an illusion, something that you only ever imposed on yourself, so becoming free from it, while not easy, is something you can do all at once, via a simple (though challenging) recognition.

    Moz 1182: "But the rest... you seem to be saying that enlightenment is literally impossible.

    Well, it is and it isn't. Pursuing enlightenment as a goal is impossible, because the sense we have of abstract goals being somehow separate things we pursue is an illusion. It's more that sustainable living isn't something you set out to do, it's just something that feels right, so you do it. Zen isn't trying to achieve an objectively correct lifestyle, because there are no objectively correct lifestyles. There is, in fact, no difference between a subject that perceives, and an object that is perceived. That's the whole point of Zen.

    "Sustainability" isn't something that you do, it's just something that you are.

    Greg 1183: Yes, another good example. Thank you.

    Troutwaxer 1184/1185: ""Executive Function" is a current buzzword in the psychological community...."

    Executive functions are definitely a thing, something determines what you pay attention to, after all. And it's definitely a pre-conscious process. Reading is good example. It turns out that people do not actually read every letter of every word on every line of a typed page. What we do is skip from morpheme to morpheme, and our brain "fills in" the blanks with meaningful content, given the context. I am very nearly 100% certain that you are not aware of which specific parts of words you focused on in this post of mine. But something inside you is making that decision (or rather, solving that problem). I'm merely pointing out that this preconscious executive functioning isn't centralized in the brain--there is no one brain region responsible for directing your attention. It's distributed.

    What happens in the brain isn't even a committee, it's more like tree growth in the forest--multiple branching lines reaching from sensation to action, but only a few are robust enough (that is, reinforced by experience) to get through and become stable.

    The implication that your conscious awareness isn't happening in real time is that it isn't directing your actions--certainly not your physical actions, and maybe not your cognition. At least some of the time it can't be--the decision was already made before your pre-frontal cortex was activated.

    I don't know what percentage of your thoughts are like that, but the fact that it happens even for one function (motor activity) implies that, like a clockwork where every part affects every other part, much of your brain is wired that way.

    If I understand our Ego-Id-Superego model, what you seem to be suggesting is that one part of the mind uses a set of neurons to generate some information (perhaps a perception, or a choice, or an emotion, or anything). That information then gets passed on the the conscious awareness (the "conversation pit" yes?), and then, while it is there, something else reviews it before sending it on to where-ever the action is taking place.

    Unfortunately the experiment I cited indicates that this can't be what's happening. The motor signal is sent (the decision is made) before the information reaches the prefrontal cortex (the conversation pit). Once there, many complex things may be happening to the information, but it has nothing to do with what you decided to do in the moment. That's over already.

    And the implication of that is that those voices you hear in your head? The ones debating different choices and eventually selecting one? You may not be driving that--you're just watching it, but you feel like you're driving it. And the implication of that?

    Your experience of selecting thoughts to think may largely be an illusion.

    While the research does not compel this interpretation, it is consistent with this interpretation. And Dennet’s approach (which you cited above) is also consistent (although I do not necessarily agree with him that an entirely materialist/physicalist description can comprehensively contain all the information we derive from our conscious experiences).

    “I like it. Are we distinguishing consciousness from intelligence? On an evolutionary scale, is consciousness a re-purposed version of the thing predators use to predict the behavior of prey, or is it something we've evolved to deal with complex social groups?”

    Yes, and I think that intelligence (you can call it “Sapeince”) is the thing that predators use (starting with the amoeba on up), and that consciousness is something else. “Sentience” is a special type of higher order consciousness.

    1187:

    "Sustainability" isn't something that you do, it's just something that you are.

    Only in the brutal sense that we can't cause the universe to end, as far as we know, and thus any effect we have will be short term and local.

    But that is a very reassuring way to justify doing whatever the fuck you want without regard for anyone else, since "it's not what you do, it's what you are". Very Christian in many ways. Commit genocide but have Jesus in your heart... you're saved, no worries. Start a nuclear war... it's not about what you do, it's about what you are. And you're biodegradeable, or at least geodegradeable, or in the final analysis your protons will decay just like everyone else's. No worries!

    1188:

    Most people don't classify a monologue as a conversation.

    1189:

    Bluntly, we don't have a clue about how higher-level mentalities work, how they originate, which are separate from one another, and only 'evidence of absence' for which ones ARE higher level! I.e. which ones we don't know how to program, despite 70 years of trying.

    1190:

    Yes. Totally.

    When I'm visualizing 3 dimensional shapes and moving them around in my head, this is in no way (to me) what is happening when I'm having a conversation. At all.

    If you saw Apple's Foundation and how the math folks were visualizing math issues way too complicated for most or all mortals above their heads, that is sort of what I'm doing when working on a problem. Abet a much simpler version.

    1191:

    @Moz 1188: What is it about "living in the moment" that you think will turn people into psychopathic killers? All the evidence I have seen goes in the opposite direction (toward increased tolerance and sensitivity).

    I think we have some clues about how higher order mentalities work, such as over one hundred years of research on learning (Example: https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-schema-2795873).

    1192:

    The only form of learning that is a higher level mentality is learning a new conceptual framework, which you could regard as creating a totally new schema that has nothing in common with existing ones. The examples in that page are very simple, we know that some are innate in many people but not all (*), many animals can do some of them, and some 'self-teaching' programs have been able to do them for decades.

    And we don't have a clue even whether people who fail to learn a new conceptual framework are fundamentally incapable of doing so, or could do it is they persevered enough. This is most readily visible when trying to teach people advanced mathematics. I can assure you that is an important, thorny, and open question.

    (*) Think Aspergers.

    1193:

    EC @ 1193
    Or, in other words: What levels of abstraction can "you" reach? - yes/no?
    Been asked/discussed here some time back w.r.t. computer programming, f'rinstance.

    1194:

    What is it about "living in the moment" that you think will turn people into psychopathic killers?

    Observation, and reading about the characteristics of murderers and other violent criminals. "living in the moment" is a pretty good description of one of the more common pathologies. I'm not saying that everyone who believes as you do is a planet-raping arsehole, but that planet-raping arseholes almost always hold beliefs like yours. "I am a good person, therefore the mass extinction I participate in is good". They are good, even though they do bad things.

    I was explicitly linking your ideas to the Christian-style "believe and be saved" where there's at least some suggestive evidence that destroying the world seems like a good idea to some of them. But much more broadly, they feel free to harm others because they're "saved" regardless of their actions.

    I tend strongly to the view that it's what you do that harms others, not what you are.

    And very specifically, you can be white, black, heathen, Christian, gay, straight, love cars, hate dogs, whatever. What matters is what you do. Go out gay-bashing of a weekend because your mates do... you're doing a bad thing. Drive a car everywhere because everyone else does... you're making the world a worse place. And so on. It's all about what you do.

    1195:

    @Moz at 1195: I think it's fair to say that you are reading something into my posts, and into Zen practice, that isn't there. Personally, I can't think of anything that a sociopath and a Zen Master have in common. "white, black, heathen, Christian, gay, straight, love cars, hate dogs" are not things that you are (from the perspective of Zen). Those are things that people think they are, not what they really are. What they really are can't be expressed in words (which is a thing that you do, not what you are), it can only be experienced.

    Of course what you do matters, because that's how you affect other people. But separating what you do from what you are in the moment only makes you less effective at it. If you can hurt someone and not feel bad, then you're a sociopath already and nothing that you could think about it would change anything. But ordinary otherwise healthy people use words to convince themselves to do things that would otherwise feel wrong. That's called rationalizing. One of the things that Zen does is eliminate all rationalizing.

    1196:

    Oh, and I would be very very cautious before assigning some people to a higher "mentality" than others. Everything that I have been saying was intended to be taken in a between-species context. To the extent that anything is sentient, all people are, full stop.

    And I know of no evidence that people with HFA (High Functioning Autism) are less able to use and form schemas compared to anyone else--they may have different prototypical categories than most other people, but they would be just as sophisticated (in some ways, perhaps more so).

    1197:

    I have to disagree with both here.

    Yes, fighters have to live in the moment. But so do Buddhist monks sworn to ahimsa.

    Mindfulness is a tool, and by itself it's value-neutral. This is one reason why basic monastic training in Buddhism helped raise the Shaolin forces and the Sohei.

    I'd point out that getting lost in endless what-if scenarios is also a value-neutral tool. You can do that if you're trying to find ways to deal with climate change, slow down human-caused mass extinctions, or promulgate a white-supremacist scenario where you fantasize about everyone else dying.

    1198:

    (from the perspective of Zen). Those are things that people think they are, not what they really are. What they really are can't be expressed in words

    You've used a lot of words to get to that point.It sounds as though you're an essentialist of a peculiarly pointless type. Your version of Zen being all about the essential nature of people being impossible to know or discuss. Also enlightenment can't be achieved and trying is pointless. It seems like a very closed system. But you seem to be discussing outcomes rather than the process, when from my vague knowledge of Zen it seems to be more process oriented. Passive acceptance. Do what the boss says and like it.

    H, I tend to see "what if" as a tool. I want a particular outcome, and I what-if my way through a bunch of different ideas for getting there. Zen seems to be a way to avoid wanting an outcome, or at least convincing yourself that the outcome you get doesn't matter. On the one hand Zen lends itself to "kill them all, God will know his own" (a value-neutral change since you're not changing what people are by doing that), but on the other it can lead to radical acceptance of things we can't change, and how other people are.

    I'm just quietly skeptical that "don't strive, it's pointless and annoys the powerful" is a sensible philosophical position. Unless you're powerful, in which case it seems ideal (for other people). But by nature I'm not comfortable being passive. I have learned to accept that about myself :)

    1199:

    I'm just quietly skeptical that "don't strive, it's pointless and annoys the powerful" is a sensible philosophical position. Unless you're powerful, in which case it seems ideal (for other people). But by nature I'm not comfortable being passive. I have learned to accept that about myself :)

    I'll stay out of the Greg Tingey religions are psychopathy argument at the moment, and just get back to Taoism.

    The thing to remember about Taoism is that it coexisted with some of the most corrupt regimes in history, the Imperial Chinese dynasties. It's first job was trying to help practitioners survive, since more often than not, the emperors didn't particularly want to hear anyone speaking something other than the Official Truth and could have them and all their relatives killed out of hand. Teaching people to stay alive and sane in that kind of situation isn't easy, but if they can't do that, they're unlikely to resist all that well.

    Taoists split into "right-handed" and "left-handed" traditions based mostly on whether they get involved in politics or not. Right-handers generally are renunciates who head for the hills, left-handers actively engage in politics, and most practitioners are ordinary citizens who just try to live their lives. As you note, which direction you lean is a matter of personal preference as much as anything else.

    1200:

    Agreed, but I can witness than many people seem to be completely unable to develop some 'schemas' that are basic to advanced mathematics. The same may well be true in some other areas. We can speculate as to why, but my point is that we simply don't know enough to make an educated guess.

    1201:

    Agreed, but I can witness than many people seem to be completely unable to develop some 'schemas' that are basic to advanced mathematics. The same may well be true in some other areas. We can speculate as to why, but my point is that we simply don't know enough to make an educated guess.

    Agreed. I pretty much hit my limit with differential equations, for instance.

    Another area where most people lack a fundamental something, one that's the bane of my existence, is reviewing environmental impact reports. EIRs are based on the logic that, before you build a major project, you should figure out what kinds of damage it will cause. Then you either adapt your plan to avoid the damage, figure out how to repair it, or set it up so that the decision maker (usually a city council or county board) can figure out whether the benefits outweigh the unavoidable damage or not.

    The problem is that people writing these things make mistakes and lie.

    It turns out that most people reading EIRs can't figure out what's wrong with they're reading. This includes a fair number of people whose job it is to research and write them. I've gone through dozens of volunteers over the last decade, people who want to help me do reviews, but just can't do it. Only a handful can. This seems to be true for environmental groups throughout California. Since civil suits over the errors in EIRs are how environmentalists stop projects, this lack of skilled reviewers is a problem for everyone. Literally. Unfortunately, no one's figured out how to teach that special cynicism that lets reviewers see incipient problems.

    1202:

    What does that skillset look like?

    1203:

    What does that skillset look like?

    Hard to describe, easy to see in action. It's about noticing what is not described, noticing what's obviously wrong, and noticing when interactions between parts of a document don't work.

    Examples:
    --An EIR states that following state building codes for wildfire make homes fireproof, so housing will not burn, and in extremis, people can shelter in their homes. The building codes don't say they make homes fireproof, and recent data suggest that up to 20% of up-to-code houses burn in wildfires. I noticed this seemed weird, and looked up the building codes. They just asserted this, without evidence.

    --An EIR biology report states that they surveyed a large site rapidly, to the point that they were surveying a football field/pitch-sized area of scrub every five minutes for a small annual plant that needs good magnification to tell apart from a close relative that also occurs on the site. In doing so, they apparently walked 40 miles per day for a week. I noticed that the survey schedule made no sense, and went from there.

    --In order to protect native plants, the species are included in the landscaping for the border of the project in the landscaping plan. In the fire protection plan, a separate subcontractor bans a bunch of native plants from the landscaping bordering the development, including everything they require in the landscaping plan. No one checked to compare the plans.

    1204:

    Sounds like a very similar skill set to analyzing large government contracts about anything. Most are so big it is hard for most people to absorb. Or to care to try.

    So midway through the contract everyone starts yelling at each other and someone pays for the clean up.

    Large ship and aircraft military contracts for example. Road building of which an EIR is just a subset.

    Oops. That road work means 1000 people will have to drive an extra 1/2 hour each day to and from work or the grocery store. For A YEAR.

    1205:

    Sounds like a very similar skill set to analyzing large government contracts about anything. Most are so big it is hard for most people to absorb. Or to care to try.

    Exactly. I'll admit that I don't catch all errors, which is why I prefer having more eyes on any document. It helps that I work on only a small subset of the topics, and I'll admit that I can't catch a number of other problems.

    1206:

    Thanks. Sounds a fair bit like the things I used to try to do. It wasn't technically what I was paid to do (software tester), but it dug my employer out of a big hole on at least one occasion.

    1207:

    Moz at 1199: "Your version of Zen being all about the essential nature of people being impossible to know or discuss. Also enlightenment can't be achieved and trying is pointless. It seems like a very closed system. But you seem to be discussing outcomes rather than the process, when from my vague knowledge of Zen it seems to be more process oriented. Passive acceptance. Do what the boss says and like it."

    Heh, you and I are recapitulating the Western critique of Zen for the last two hundred years, although you may not realize it. Zen has answers to these objections that go so far back they could almost count as traditions by now.

    First off, one of the claims Zen makes is that it allows the practitioner to become more effective at mastering skills and achieving goals, not less. Ever seen a master of Jujitsu fight? Or a master calligrapher draw? Neither Japan nor China are known for being low achieving cultures.

    It does this not by advocating against planning, it advocates planning in the moment, and then just acting. This helps, because people have a tendency to over commit to plans at the expense of adapting quickly to changing circumstances. "No plan survives contact with reality" and all that. Zen derived in part out of Taoism, and remains broadly consistent with the older tradition. Ever read that Taoist classic "The Art of War"? It essentially invented contingency planning sometime around the Roman Empire. It's the exact opposite of passive.

    The foundational principle of Zen isn't acceptance, it's seeing unity in all things, starting with yourself and your surroundings. A sense of intuitive connection, that nothing is truly separate from anything else, including acts and their consequences.

    The power dynamics of Zen monasteries are interesting. The masters were expected to be treated with absolute respect and deference, equivalent to that of a senior elder, by the students. Yet passing the Koan tests consisted of demonstrating your mental independence and surpassing your master's teaching. After that, you were basically on your own. It was just another test.

    "Zen seems to be a way to avoid wanting an outcome, or at least convincing yourself that the outcome you get doesn't matter."

    Rather, it consists of recognizing that process and outcome are not discrete, separate things. What happens is what is happening. If you are ok with it, go along. If not, resist. But above all, don't second guess yourself.

    I have literally never heard of a Zen practitioner who advocated for mass killing. It may fail to prevent it (Imperial Japan) but I know of no ideology or doctrine, including secularism, that hasn't been misused to justify mass violence. Humans are good at rationalizing. Zen can't fix that.

    If you are a naturally proactive person, you might look into this practice. I predict you will find it more compatible than you expect it to be.

    EC at 1201: "Agreed, but I can witness than many people seem to be completely unable to develop some 'schemas' that are basic to advanced mathematics. The same may well be true in some other areas."

    Pretty much every mental trait that I know of is distributed across populations in a bell curve. Taking the highest level of achievement and expecting everyone to match it defies the statistical distribution. The average person will never "get" advanced mathematics, it's pointless hoping for that. But then again, advancement in one area doesn't seem to imply mastery of any other. In theory, everyone has their unique strengths, which are sufficient to their life goals. Insofar as natural, or cultural, selection is concerned, that's what matters.

    I suspect that the contents of everyone's mind contains more or less the same amount of information and complexity. Different people focus on different things.

    Hetero at 1202, etc.: That sounds interesting. I think the phrase "fireproof house" would have been a red flag for me.

    It sounds like a nuanced combination of attention to detail over large information sets, a relatively deep life experience, and pattern matching to patterns common to con jobs and scams.

    1208:

    Interview with the AI engineer that kicked off this discussion.

    Very unlike the news reports. Serious research guy looking into what's going on, and raising many of the same questions we've been thrashing out here. Very nuanced discussion, including some thoughts about Google hard coding some responses and what effect that might have on society.

    https://youtu.be/kgCUn4fQTsc

    1209:

    , you and I are recapitulating the Western critique of Zen for the last two hundred years, although you may not realize it. Zen has answers to these objections

    It seems weird to me that an advocate of a given thing wouldn't have ready answers to the most obvious critiques, but here we are.

    Your mass killing stuff seems to be either deliberate ignorance or a no true scotsman argument. But the example you gave just leaves me confused. People who follow your tradition committed mass murder, but no-one who follows the tradition has ever advocated for mass murder. Perhaps that hair is just very finely split.

    1210:

    Heteromeles @ 904:

    Milo Minderbinder would have been right at home.

    1211:

    Agreed, but I can witness than many people seem to be completely unable to develop some 'schemas' that are basic to advanced mathematics.

    are there any specific stumbling blocks that jump out at you (assuming there aren't just too many to count)?

    i like to speculate that my own difficulties in that area could be blamed on pedagogy, but i realize i would say that

    1212:

    David L @ 938:

    in those days the PTA meetings tended to be held in the daytime, because, you know, 'stay-at-home-moms.'

    You're missing the other part of this. Dad would take the ONE car in the family to work so mom could NOT go to a PTA meeting during the day in the suburbs. Except for the richer ones.

    Where I grew up in East Durham, NC there weren't a lot of "stay-at-home-moms". There were a lot of families in the neighborhood where both parents worked at one of the cigarette factories in town. They were mostly one car families because both parents worked at the same factory. There were some exceptions where the wife was a school teacher and the family would have two cars.

    We lived in a housing development that was right up on the city limits, but it wasn't suburbia. I don't think Durham got an actual "suburb" until several years later when they started developing Parkwood out near Research Triangle Park.

    My Mom was one of the few "stay-at-home" types, but that ended when my youngest sibling was firmly established in school (second grade). That's when Mom started nursing school to become a "Licensed Practical Nurse". She worked as an EKG technician for 10 years or so before going back to nursing school to become a Registered Nurse.

    We were a one car family up until about 1962 when all the sibs were in school & Mom started working. For a while I believe we were technically a NO CAR family. My Dad drove a company car, but in 1962 he bought his company car at the end of the lease (1961 Bel Air). That became the "family" car that Mom drove. Dad got a new company car ... so we were a one car family with two cars.

    Several years later Dad bought another car for Mom (1965 Caprice - again at the end of lease) and the "family" car got handed down to me (and my oldest Sib) and we drove it to High School. I drove to school & she drove home while I went to work.

    I only remember PTA meetings from grade school, and they were always at night. Both parents attended and sometimes they took us kids, but we were strictly required to sit still and shut up (which I had a hard time doing, being what the child psychologist called "high strung".

    1213:

    Robert Prior @ 979:

    an uninsured driver totaled her Elantra

    That always strikes me as strange. Up here, it is illegal to be on the road without at least third party insurance (currently $200k in Ontario).

    It's against the law to operate a motor vehicle in North Carolina without liability insurance, but it seems like there are a lot of people breaking the law nowadays.

    And the cops don't seem to have much time to go looking for the expired tags, no insurance, no drivers license scofflaws & get them off the road.

    And then you have the insurance companies that will try to screw you any way they can.

    1214:

    David L @ 1004: And on a dog/cat side note. Never give a dog some canned cat food for just one meal. Or they will go on a hunger strike until you resume giving them the good stuff. And look at you with a "why have you been keeping this from me all this time?" expression.

    OTOH, with my little guy, if you mix even the tiniest amount of cat food with his regular dogfood, he won't eat ANY of it.

    1215:

    JBS
    "uninsured"
    Shortly before lockdown, local Plod made use of the old swimming pool site, by our allotments ( A new one was under construction ) to "pull" uninsured/untaxed vehicles - they had a camera up the road & another plod standing on a traffic island by the car-park entrance, directing miscreants in.
    I was returning from collecting horse manure & plants, ignored the plod & turned in - & went "wtf?" ... wound window right down & asked another plod "What's going on here?"
    Plod: Just park there sir, we'll be with you shortly
    Me: No, I just turned in here
    Plod: The car-park is CLOSED, sir
    Me: I know, I'm going there ( Points to Allotment gates )
    Plod: I'm afraid we'll have to search your car & look at what you're carrying.
    Me (brightly): Oh, good, you can help me unload these 12 (15?) bags of horse manure then.
    Plod: Horse manure?
    Me: All these (indicating lots of plastic bin-bags)
    Plod: ( pause) - Oh, um, Have a nice day sir!
    - Two hours later, they were still at it, when I drove out ....

    1216:

    David L @ 1151:

    What about all the times you're not working on a car or plumbing?

    Those were examples, not an exhaustive list. Most of all of my problem solving in my brain is non verbal.

    If you don't believe it so be it.

    For me it's a mix of verbal & non-verbal.

    I have to do some THING; first step is THIS, then I'll be able to do THAT ... no wait, I'll have to do THE OTHER, then I can do THAT, then ...

    THING, THIS, THAT & THE OTHER are all mostly non-verbal, although they might have a name. The farther out I'm planning the more verbal it is, but as I get into the actual DOING it becomes more and more non-verbal.

    At the same time, there's often some kind of stilted dialog running through the back(?) of my mind. Some related to what I'm doing and some just wandering of to who knows where.

    Also, I'm much more verbal when trying to write a comment about something than I am when I'm actually doing that "something".

    1217:

    Heteromeles @ 1159:

    I believe that censor is more accurate than ringmaster. I.e. you take multiple decisions, and the 'higher level' prunes all but one. Usually. Sometimes two get through, and the action is a mess.

    Censor is not a bad analogy either. I pitched the idea of ringmaster to cover those situations where the conscious mind seems to be justifying more than censoring or going with what felt most right.

    Maybe instead of a censor, it's a "back-seat driver".

    1218:

    @Moz 1210: I think it is reasonable to make a distinction between "causing something to happen" and "failing to prevent something from happening." While Zen is popular in Japan, it is not true that it's the mental framework from which everyone operates. The techniques are esoteric enough that even in Japan, only a minority of people can really be said to have mastered them. Nevertheless, it is valid to point out that Zen isn't any less susceptible to abuse than any other spiritual discipline is (or any belief system in general).

    Anyway, enough about Zen. That interview with the Google ethics researcher, Blake Lemoine, makes some interesting and important points. Primarily, who controls this technology, what effect will it have on the public, and why is Google so reluctant to open discussion about it?

    1219:

    I think it is reasonable to make a distinction between "causing something to happen" and "failing to prevent something from happening."

    This is actually the critical point that enables certain limited voluntary assisted dying in some jurisdictions where this is not already provided for by statute law. It depends on there already being strong case law and that clinicians involved keep within the main principles of the relevant precedents. That often is highly unsatisfactory, or there is a large degree of risk for the clinicians, so legislation is much preferred. Something else to watch out for in certain US jurisdictions I guess.

    1220:

    The actual discussion between the Google researchers and lamda.

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22058315-is-lamda-sentient-an-interview

    It's compelling, but I've also seen compelling interviews where a different language AI is accused of being a squirrel pretending to be an AI. It maintains that it's not a squirrel, but keeps talking about nuts.

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